posts_gdocs: 138RBPWhDv0CWxZFTcS_uaDIbAGDlcaIgcOvfA12RQ-k
Data license: CC-BY
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| id | slug | type | content | published | createdAt | publishedAt | updatedAt | publicationContext | revisionId | breadcrumbs | markdown | title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 138RBPWhDv0CWxZFTcS_uaDIbAGDlcaIgcOvfA12RQ-k | population-growth | topic-page | {
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"text": "Population growth is one of the most important topics we cover at ",
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"text": "For most of human history, the global population was",
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"text": "a tiny fraction of what it is today. Over the last few centuries, the human population has gone through an extraordinary change. In 1800, there were one billion people. Today there are more than 8 billion of us.",
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"text": "But after a period of very fast population growth, demographers expect the world population to peak by the end of this century.",
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"text": "On this page, you will find all of our data, charts, and writing on changes in population growth. This includes how populations are distributed worldwide, how this has changed, and what demographers expect for the future.",
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"heading": "Key insights on Population Growth",
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"title": "Population cartograms show us where the world\u2019s people are",
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"text": "Geographical maps show us where the world's landmasses are; not where people are. That means they don't always give us an accurate picture of how global living standards are changing.",
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"text": "One way to understand the distribution of people worldwide is to redraw the world map \u2013 not based on the area but according to population.",
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"text": "This is shown here as a ",
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"text": ": a geographical presentation of the world where the size of countries is not drawn according to the distribution of land but by the distribution of people. It\u2019s shown for the year 2018.",
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"text": "As the population size rather than the territory is shown in this map, you can see some significant differences when you compare it to the standard geographical map we\u2019re most familiar with.",
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"text": "Small countries with a high population density increase in size in this cartogram relative to the world maps we are used to \u2013 look at Bangladesh, Taiwan, or the Netherlands. Large countries with a small population shrink in size \u2013 look for Canada, Mongolia, Australia, or Russia.",
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"text": "You can find more details on this cartogram in our article about it:",
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"text": "This map is based on the United Nation\u2019s 2017 World Population Prospects report. Our interactive charts show population data from the most recent UN revision. This means there may be minor differences between the figures shown on the map and the latest estimates in our other charts.",
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"text": "The speed of global population growth over the last few centuries has been staggering. For most of human history, the world population was well under one million.",
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"text": "As recently as 12,000 years ago, there were only 4 million people worldwide.",
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"text": "The one-billion mark wasn\u2019t broken until the early 1800s. It was only a century ago that there were 2 billion people.",
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"text": "Since then, the global population has quadrupled to eight billion.",
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"text": "Around 108 billion people have ever lived on our planet. This means that today\u2019s population size makes up 6.5% of the total number of people ever born.",
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"text": "This increase has been the result of advances in living conditions and health that reduced death rates \u2013 especially in children \u2013 and increases in life expectancy.",
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"text": "There\u2019s a popular misconception that the global population is growing exponentially. But it\u2019s not.",
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"text": "Other sources and scenarios in the UN\u2019s projections suggest that the peak was reached slightly earlier or later. However, most indicate that the world is close to \"peak child\" and the number of children will not increase in the coming decades.",
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"text": "The 'ups and downs' in this chart reflect generational effects and 'baby booms' when there are large cohorts of women of reproductive age, and high fertility rates. The timing of these transitions varies across the world.",
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"heading": "More key articles on Population Growth",
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"url": "https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-update-2022",
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"Edouard Mathieu and Lucas Rod\u00e9s-Guirao"
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"value": {
"url": "https://ourworldindata.org/most-densely-populated-countries",
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"title": "India's population growth will come to an end: the number of children has already peaked",
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"Hannah Ritchie"
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"filename": "Peak-pop-featured-01.png"
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"url": "https://ourworldindata.org/region-population-2100",
"title": "More than 8 out of 10 people in the world will live in Asia or Africa by 2100",
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"filename": "Future-population-region-featured-01.png"
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"url": "https://ourworldindata.org/global-population-pyramid",
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"url": "https://ourworldindata.org/population-projections",
"title": "The UN has made population projections for more than 50 years \u2013 how accurate have they been?",
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"title": "Does population growth lead to hunger and famine?",
"authors": [
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"url": "https://ourworldindata.org/do-famines-check-population-growth",
"title": "Do famines curb population growth?",
"authors": [
"Joe Hasell"
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"filename": "Demographic-Impact-of-China\u2019s-Great-Leap-Forward-Famine.png"
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"url": "https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-cartogram",
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"subtitle": "What would the work look like if each country's area was in proportion to its population?"
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"text": "See, for example, Kremer (1993) \u2013 ",
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"title": "Population Growth",
"authors": [
"Hannah Ritchie",
"Lucas Rod\u00e9s-Guirao",
"Edouard Mathieu",
"Marcel Gerber",
"Esteban Ortiz-Ospina",
"Joe Hasell",
"Max Roser"
],
"excerpt": "Explore global and country data on population growth, demography, and how this is changing.",
"dateline": "July 11, 2023",
"subtitle": "Explore global and country data on population growth, demography, and how this is changing.",
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"text": "Introduction",
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"text": "Key Insights",
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"text": "Data Explorer",
"target": "#explore-data-on-population-growth"
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"text": "Endnotes",
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"text": "Cite This Work",
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"text": "Reuse This Work",
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"featured-image": "population-growth-thumbnail.png"
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1 | 2024-06-17 09:12:40 | 2023-07-11 09:17:05 | 2024-06-17 09:15:09 | unlisted | ALBJ4Lte9p44lcrg67wTinvv5X-4LiA5BzV4EVG8PIL14jw5kIZvQ4chD26URfrRowdyh7I9p6MBRcDr2oj9Jw | Population growth is one of the most important topics we cover at _Our World in Data_. For most of human history, the global population was_ _a tiny fraction of what it is today. Over the last few centuries, the human population has gone through an extraordinary change. In 1800, there were one billion people. Today there are more than 8 billion of us. But after a period of very fast population growth, demographers expect the world population to peak by the end of this century. On this page, you will find all of our data, charts, and writing on changes in population growth. This includes how populations are distributed worldwide, how this has changed, and what demographers expect for the future. ## Key insights on Population Growth ### Population cartograms show us where the world’s people are Geographical maps show us where the world's landmasses are; not where people are. That means they don't always give us an accurate picture of how global living standards are changing. One way to understand the distribution of people worldwide is to redraw the world map – not based on the area but according to population. This is shown here as a _population cartogram_: a geographical presentation of the world where the size of countries is not drawn according to the distribution of land but by the distribution of people. It’s shown for the year 2018. As the population size rather than the territory is shown in this map, you can see some significant differences when you compare it to the standard geographical map we’re most familiar with. Small countries with a high population density increase in size in this cartogram relative to the world maps we are used to – look at Bangladesh, Taiwan, or the Netherlands. Large countries with a small population shrink in size – look for Canada, Mongolia, Australia, or Russia. You can find more details on this cartogram in our article about it: ### undefined undefined https://docs.google.com/document/d/1KQHSgvKYhaEeu8Y_b9mMk9KyirXJusLYXjc7r2FMx1g/edit <Callout />  ### The world population has increased rapidly over the last few centuries The speed of global population growth over the last few centuries has been staggering. For most of human history, the world population was well under one million.1 As recently as 12,000 years ago, there were only 4 million people worldwide. The chart shows the rapid increase in the global population since 1700. The one-billion mark wasn’t broken until the early 1800s. It was only a century ago that there were 2 billion people. Since then, the global population has quadrupled to eight billion. Around 108 billion people have ever lived on our planet. This means that today’s population size makes up 6.5% of the total number of people ever born.2 This increase has been the result of advances in living conditions and health that reduced death rates – especially in children – and increases in life expectancy. ### undefined undefined https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/population <Callout />  ### Population growth is no longer exponential – it peaked decades ago There’s a popular misconception that the global population is growing exponentially. But it’s not. While the global population is still increasing in absolute numbers, population _growth_ peaked decades ago. In the chart, we see the global population growth rate per year. This is based on historical UN estimates and its medium projection to 2100. Global population growth peaked in the 1960s at over 2% per year. Since then, rates have more than halved, falling to less than 1%. The UN expects rates to continue to fall until the end of the century. In fact, towards the end of the century, it projects _negative_ growth, meaning the global population will shrink instead of grow. Global population growth, in absolute terms – which is the number of births [minus the number](https://ourworldindata.org/births-and-deaths) of deaths – has also peaked. You can see this in our interactive chart: ### undefined undefined https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/population-growth-the-annual-change-of-the-population?time=1950..2100  ### The world has passed "peak child" Hans Rosling famously coined the term "[peak child](https://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_religions_and_babies/transcript)" for the moment in global demographic history when the number of children stopped increasing. According to the UN data, the world has passed "peak child", which is defined as the number of children under the age of five. The chart shows the UN’s historical estimates and projections of the number of children under five. It estimates that the number of children in the world peaked in 2017. For the coming decades, demographers expect a decades-long plateau before the number will decline more rapidly in the second half of the century. <Callout /> <Chart url="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/children-under-age-5"/> ### The UN expects the global population to peak by the end of the century When will population growth come to an end? The UN’s historical estimates and latest projections for the global population are shown in the chart. The UN projects that the global population will peak before the end of the century – in 2086, at just over 10.4 billion people. <Callout /> <Chart url="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/population-with-un-projections"/> # Explore data on Population Growth <Chart url="https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/population-and-demography?facet=none&hideControls=false&Metric=Population&Sex=Both+sexes&Age+group=Total&Projection+Scenario=None&country=CHN~IND~USA~IDN~PAK"/> ## Research & Writing * https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-cartogram ,* https://ourworldindata.org/population-growth-over-time ,* https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-growth-past-future ,* https://ourworldindata.org/indias-population-growth-will-come-to-an-end ,* https://ourworldindata.org/region-population-2100 ,* https://ourworldindata.org/global-population-pyramid ,* https://ourworldindata.org/population-momentum ,* https://ourworldindata.org/demographic-transition ,* https://ourworldindata.org/population-sources ,* https://ourworldindata.org/population-projections ,* https://ourworldindata.org/population-growth-and-famines ,* https://ourworldindata.org/do-famines-check-population-growth ,* https://ourworldindata.org/births-and-deaths ,* https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-update-2022 ,* https://ourworldindata.org/most-densely-populated-countries <AllCharts heading="All charts"/> See, for example, Kremer (1993) – [Population growth and technological change: one million BC to 1990](https://www.jstor.org/stable/2118405). In the Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 108, No. 3, 681-716. As per 2011 estimates from Carl Haub (2011), “[How Many People Have Ever Lived on Earth?](https://www.prb.org/howmanypeoplehaveeverlivedonearth/)” Population Reference Bureau. | Population Growth |