posts_gdocs: 1zVyqc3fuvugPqHnDm2ZQ1mKB_TV3bFtxuC_QINhvNfs
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1zVyqc3fuvugPqHnDm2ZQ1mKB_TV3bFtxuC_QINhvNfs | solar-panel-prices-have-fallen-by-around-20-every-time-global-capacity-doubled | data-insight | { "body": [ { "size": "narrow", "type": "image", "filename": "solar-learning-curve-desktop.png", "hasOutline": false, "parseErrors": [], "smallFilename": "solar-learning-curve-mobile.png" }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "One of the most transformative changes in technology over the last few decades has been the massive drop in the cost of clean energy. Solar photovoltaic ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/cheap-renewables-growth", "children": [ { "text": "costs have fallen", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-link" }, { "text": " by 90% in the last decade, onshore wind by 70%, and batteries ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/battery-price-decline", "children": [ { "text": "by more than", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-link" }, { "text": " 90%.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "These technologies have followed a \u201clearning curve\u201d called ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/learning-curve", "children": [ { "text": "Wright\u2019s Law", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-link" }, { "text": ". This states that the cost of technology falls consistently as the cumulative production of that technology increases.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "The chart shows the perfect example of this for solar power. This data comes from the ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "https://www.irena.org/Publications/2023/Aug/Renewable-Power-Generation-Costs-in-2022", "children": [ { "text": "International Renewable Agency", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-link" }, { "text": ", ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "https://pcdb.santafe.edu/graph.php?curve=158", "children": [ { "text": "Greg Nemet", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-link" }, { "text": ", and ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048733315001699", "children": [ { "text": "Doyne Farmer & Fran\u00e7ois Lafond", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-link" }, { "text": ".", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "On the horizontal axis, we have the cumulative installed capacity of solar panels, and on the vertical axis, the cost. Both are measured on logarithmic scales, and the trend follows a straight line. That means the fall in cost has been ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "children": [ { "text": "exponential", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-italic" }, { "text": ".", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "Costs have fallen by around 20% every time the global cumulative capacity doubles. Over four decades, solar power has transformed from one of the most expensive electricity sources to ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-cheapest-electricity-in-history-confirms-iea/", "children": [ { "text": "the cheapest", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-link" }, { "text": " in many countries.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "url": "https://docs.google.com/document/d/1THmmJVzdsf_Bl2xyf9xlYG4YZBamhvhD7SrlEmzOKlU/edit", "type": "prominent-link", "parseErrors": [] } ], "refs": { "errors": [], "definitions": {} }, "type": "data-insight", "title": "Solar panel prices have fallen by around 20% every time global capacity doubled", "authors": [ "Hannah Ritchie" ], "approved-by": "Ed", "grapher-url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices-vs-cumulative-capacity" } |
1 | 2024-04-29 11:11:44 | 2024-06-13 05:47:48 | 2024-06-13 05:46:39 | unlisted | ALBJ4Ls3o6_pt-_QbUwPmzi4harCX-buy51snQPC5j7Of6q3LqUNfhHtv2PBeiqEnWeWIBeP7tvqRmBhKRTt8w | <Image filename="solar-learning-curve-desktop.png"/> One of the most transformative changes in technology over the last few decades has been the massive drop in the cost of clean energy. Solar photovoltaic [costs have fallen](https://ourworldindata.org/cheap-renewables-growth) by 90% in the last decade, onshore wind by 70%, and batteries [by more than](https://ourworldindata.org/battery-price-decline) 90%. These technologies have followed a “learning curve” called [Wright’s Law](https://ourworldindata.org/learning-curve). This states that the cost of technology falls consistently as the cumulative production of that technology increases. The chart shows the perfect example of this for solar power. This data comes from the [International Renewable Agency](https://www.irena.org/Publications/2023/Aug/Renewable-Power-Generation-Costs-in-2022), [Greg Nemet](https://pcdb.santafe.edu/graph.php?curve=158), and [Doyne Farmer & François Lafond](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048733315001699). On the horizontal axis, we have the cumulative installed capacity of solar panels, and on the vertical axis, the cost. Both are measured on logarithmic scales, and the trend follows a straight line. That means the fall in cost has been _exponential_. Costs have fallen by around 20% every time the global cumulative capacity doubles. Over four decades, solar power has transformed from one of the most expensive electricity sources to [the cheapest](https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-cheapest-electricity-in-history-confirms-iea/) in many countries. [Read more from my colleague, Max Roser, on learning curves](https://ourworldindata.org/learning-curve) → | Solar panel prices have fallen by around 20% every time global capacity doubled |