posts_gdocs: 1_1Lulu1muRprdpbPB1nN1UPDQfPOEUFR3aCbfOvagJM
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"text": "Disasters \u2013 from earthquakes and storms to floods and droughts \u2013 kill approximately 40,000 to 50,000 people per year. This is the average over the last few decades.",
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"text": ", disasters can have much larger impacts on specific populations. Single extreme events can kill tens to hundreds of thousands of people. In the 20th century, more than a million deaths per year were not uncommon.",
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"text": " \u2013 by them each year. And the economic costs of extreme events can be severe, and hard to recover from. This is particularly true in lower-income countries.",
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"text": "As climate change increases the risks of more extreme events, making societies even more resilient will be crucial to prevent our recent progress from reversing. To do so, we need to understand how disaster events are changing, who is most vulnerable, and what can be done to protect them.",
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"excerpt": "How many people die from disasters, and how are these impacts changing over time?",
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1 | 2023-11-09 23:02:09 | 2022-12-07 23:02:31 | 2024-03-12 16:14:53 | unlisted | ALBJ4LuqU6hI0-tW16bBMyVkQ8dudiwWz4nnXWTKv7rTioXtu4pUvClRXAxVaAoejpHBZ9f14Xya0_T4aR6wOQ | Natural disasters – from earthquakes and floods to storms and droughts – affect millions of people every year. However, we are not defenseless against them, and the global death toll, especially from droughts and floods, has been reduced. While natural disasters account for a small fraction of [all deaths globally](https://ourworldindata.org/causes-of-death), they can have a large impact, especially on vulnerable populations in low-to-middle-income countries with insufficient infrastructure to protect and respond effectively. Understanding the frequency, intensity, and impact of natural disasters is crucial if we want to be better prepared and protect people’s lives and livelihoods. On this page, you will find our complete collection of data, charts, and research on natural disasters and their human and economic costs. [See all charts on Natural Disasters ↓](#all-charts) Other research and writing on Natural Disasters on Our World in Data: * [Not all deaths are equal: How many deaths make a natural disaster newsworthy?](https://ourworldindata.org/how-many-deaths-make-a-natural-disaster-newsworthy) --- # Natural disasters data explorer --- <Chart url="https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/natural-disasters?facet=none&Disaster+Type=All+disasters&Impact=Deaths&Timespan=Decadal+average&Per+capita=false&country=~OWID_WRL"/> --- # Natural disasters kill tens of thousands each year --- The number of deaths from natural disasters can be highly variable from year to year; some years pass with very few deaths before a large disaster event claims many lives. On average, over the past couple of decades, natural disasters have annually resulted in the deaths of tens of thousands of individuals worldwide. In the visualizations shown here, we see the annual variability in the number and share of deaths from natural disasters in recent decades. What we see is that in many years, the number of deaths can be very low – often less than 10,000, and accounting for as low as 0.01% of total deaths. But we also see the devastating impact of shock events: the 1983-85 [famine](https://ourworldindata.org/famines) and drought in Ethiopia; the [2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Indian_Ocean_earthquake_and_tsunami); [Cyclone Nargis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Nargis) which struck Myanmar in 2008; and the [2010 Port-au-Prince earthquake](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Haiti_earthquake) which resulted in approximately 70% of all deaths that year in Haiti. All of these events pushed global disaster deaths to over 200,000 – more than 0.4% of deaths in these years. Low-frequency, high-impact events such as earthquakes and tsunamis are not preventable, but such high losses of human life are. We know from historical data that the world has seen a significant reduction in disaster deaths through earlier prediction, more resilient infrastructure, emergency preparedness, and response systems. Those at low incomes are often the most vulnerable to disaster events: improving living standards, infrastructure, and response systems in these regions will be key to preventing deaths from natural disasters in the coming decades. <Chart url="https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/natural-disasters?time=1978..latest&facet=none&Disaster+Type=All+disasters&Impact=Deaths&Timespan=Annual&Per+capita=false&country=~OWID_WRL&hideControls=true"/> <Chart url="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-deaths-from-natural-disasters?tab=chart"/> --- # Number of deaths from natural disasters --- ## Annual deaths from natural disasters In the visualization shown here, we see the long-term global trend in natural disaster deaths. This shows the estimated annual number of deaths from disasters from 1900 onwards from the [EM-DAT International Disaster Database](https://www.emdat.be/).1 What we see is that in the early-to-mid 20th century, the annual death toll from disasters was high, often reaching over one million per year. In recent decades we have seen a substantial decline in deaths. Even in peak years with high-impact events, the death toll has not exceeded 500,000 since the mid-1960s. This decline is even more impressive when we consider the rate of [population growth](https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-growth) over this period. When we correct for population – showing this data in terms of death rates (measured per 100,000 people) – we see an even greater decline over the past century. This chart can be viewed **[here](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/natural-disasters?facet=none&Disaster+Type=All+disasters&Impact=Deaths&Timespan=Annual&Per+capita=true&country=~OWID_WRL)**. The annual number of deaths from natural disasters is also available by country since 1990. This can be explored in the interactive map. <Chart url="https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/natural-disasters?facet=none&country=~OWID_WRL&hideControls=true&Disaster+Type=All+disasters&Impact=Deaths&Timespan=Annual&Per+capita=false"/> ## Average number of deaths by decade In the chart, we show global deaths from natural disasters since 1900, but rather than reporting annual deaths, we show the annual average by decade. As we see, over the course of the 20th century there was a significant decline in global deaths from natural disasters. In the early 1900s, the annual average was often in the range of 400,000 to 500,000 deaths. In the second half of the century and into the early 2000s, we have seen a significant decline to less than 100,000 – at least five times lower than these peaks. This decline is even more impressive when we consider the rate of [population growth](https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-growth) over this period. When we correct for population – showing this data in terms of death rates (measured per 100,000 people) – then we see a more than 10-fold decline over the past century. This chart can be viewed **[here](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/decadal-average-death-rates-from-natural-disasters?country=~OWID_WRL)**. <Chart url="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/decadal-deaths-disasters-type?country=OWID_WRL~"/> ## Number of deaths by type of natural disaster With almost minute-by-minute updates on what’s happening in the world, we are constantly reminded of the latest disaster. These stories are, of course, important but they do not give us a sense of how the toll of disasters has changed over time. For most of us, it is hard to know whether any given year was a particularly deadly one in the context of previous years. To understand the devastating toll of disasters today, and in the past, we have built a [Natural Disasters Data Explorer](http://ourworldindata.org/explorers/natural-disasters) which provides estimates of fatalities, displacement, and economic damage for every country since 1900. This is based on data sourced from EM-DAT; a project that undertakes the important work of building these incredibly detailed histories of disasters.2 In this visualization, I give a sense of how the global picture has evolved over the last century. It shows the estimated annual death toll – from all disasters at the top, followed by a breakdown by type. The size of the bubble represents the total death toll for that year. I’ve labeled most of the years with the largest death tolls. This usually provokes the follow-up question: “Why? What event happened?”. So I’ve also noted large-scale events that contributed to the majority – _but not necessarily all _– of the deaths in that year. For example, the estimated global death toll from storms in 2008 was approximately 141,000. 138,366 of these deaths occurred in Cyclone Margis, which struck Myanmar and is labeled on the chart. What we see is that in the 20th century, it was common to have years where the death toll was in the millions. This was usually the result of major droughts or floods. Often these would lead to famines. We look at the long history of famines **[here](http://ourworldindata.org/famines)**. Improved food security, resilience to other disasters, and better national and international responses mean that the world has not experienced death tolls of this scale in many decades. Famines today are usually driven by civil war and political unrest. In most years, the death toll from disasters is now in the range of 10,000 to 20,000 people. In the most fatal years – which tend to be those with major earthquakes or cyclones – this can reach tens to hundreds of thousands. This trend does not mean that disasters have become less frequent, or less intense. It means the world today is much better at _preventing deaths_ from disasters than in the past. This will become increasingly important in our response and adaptation to [climate change](http://ourworldindata.org/climate-change). <Image filename="Deaths-from-disasters-bubbles-1.png" alt=""/> --- # Injuries and displacement from disasters --- Human impacts from natural disasters are not fully captured in mortality rates. Injury, homelessness, and displacement can all have a significant impact on populations. The visualization below shows the number of people displaced internally (i.e. within a given country) from natural disasters. Note that these figures report on the basis of new cases of displaced persons: if someone is forced to flee their home from natural disasters more than once in any given year, they will be recorded only once within these statistics. Interactive charts on the following global impacts are available using the links below: * **[Injuries](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/natural-disasters?tab=map&facet=none&Disaster+Type=All+disasters&Impact=Injuries&Timespan=Decadal+average&Per+capita=false&country=~OWID_WRL)**: The number of people injured is defined as "People suffering from physical injuries, trauma, or an illness requiring immediate medical assistance as a direct result of a disaster." * **[Homelessness](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/natural-disasters?tab=map&facet=none&Disaster+Type=All+disasters&Impact=Homeless&Timespan=Decadal+average&Per+capita=false&country=~OWID_WRL)**: The number of people homeless is defined as the "Number of people whose house is destroyed or heavily damaged and therefore need shelter after an event." * **[Requiring assistance](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/natural-disasters?tab=map&facet=none&country=~OWID_WRL&Disaster+Type=All+disasters&Impact=Requiring+assistance&Timespan=Decadal+average&Per+capita=false)**: The number of people requiring assistance is defined as "People requiring immediate assistance during a period of emergency, i.e. requiring basic survival needs such as food, water, shelter, sanitation, and immediate medical assistance." * **[Total number affected](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/natural-disasters?tab=map&facet=none&Disaster+Type=All+disasters&Impact=Total+affected&Timespan=Decadal+average&Per+capita=false&country=~OWID_WRL)**: The total number of people affected is defined as "the sum of the injured, affected, and left homeless after a disaster." <Chart url="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/internally-displaced-persons-from-disasters"/> --- # Natural disasters by type --- ## Earthquakes ### Earthquake events Earthquake events occur across the world every day. The US Geological Survey (USGS) tracks and reports global earthquakes, with (close to) real-time updates which you can **[find here](https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/)**. However, the earthquakes that occur most frequently are often too small to cause significant damage (whether to human life or in economic terms). In the chart below we show the long history of known earthquakes classified by the [National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) of the NOAA](https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/hazel/view/hazards/earthquake/search) as 'significant' earthquakes. Significant earthquakes are those which are large enough to cause notable damage. They must meet at least one of the following criteria: caused deaths, moderate damage ($1 million or more), a magnitude 7.5 or greater, Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) X or greater, or generated a tsunami. Available data — which you can explore in the chart below — extends back to 2150 BC. But we should be aware that the most recent records will be much more complete than our long-run historical estimates. An increase in the number of recorded earthquakes doesn't necessarily mean this was the true trend over time. By clicking on a country in the map below, you can view its full series of known significant earthquakes. <Chart url="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/significant-earthquakes"/> ### Deaths from earthquakes Alongside estimates of the number of earthquake events, the National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) of the NOAA also publishes estimates of the number of deaths over this long-term series. In the chart below we see the estimated mortality numbers extending back to 1500. These figures can be found for specific countries using the "change country" function in the bottom-left of the chart, or by selecting the "map" on the bottom right. At the global level, we see that earthquake deaths have been a persistent human risk through time. <Chart url="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/earthquake-deaths"/> ### What were the world's deadliest earthquakes? The number of people dying in natural disasters is [lower today](https://ourworldindata.org/natural-disasters#number-of-deaths-from-natural-disasters) than it was in the past, and the world has become more resilient. Earthquakes, however, can still claim a large number of lives. Whilst historically floods, droughts, and epidemics [dominated disaster deaths](https://ourworldindata.org/natural-catastrophes#annual-number-of-deaths), a high annual death toll now often results from a major earthquake and possibly a tsunami caused by them. Since 2000, the two peak years in annual death tolls (reaching 100s of thousands) were 2004 and 2010. Both events (the Sumatra earthquake and tsunami of 2004, and the Port-au-Prince earthquake in 2010) are in the deadliest earthquake rankings below. What have been the most deadly earthquakes in human history? In the visualization, we have mapped the top 10 rankings of known earthquakes which resulted in the largest number of deaths.3 This ranking is based on mortality estimates from the NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC).4 Clicking on the visualization will open it in higher resolution. This ranking is also summarized in table form. The most deadly earthquake in history was in Shaanxi, China in 1556. It's estimated to have killed 830,000 people. This is more than twice that of the second most fatal: the recent Port-au-Prince earthquake in Haiti in 2010. It's reported that 316,000 people died as a result.5 Two very recent earthquakes — the Sumatra earthquake and tsunami of 2004, and the 2010 Port-au-Prince earthquake — feature amongst the most deadly in human history. But equally, some of the most fatal occurred in the very distant past. Making the top three was the earthquake in Antakya (Turkey) in the year 115. Both old and very recent features are near the top of the list. The deadly nature of earthquakes has been a persistent threat throughout our history. <Image filename="Deadliest-earthquakes.png" alt=""/> |**Ranking**|**Location**|**Year**|**Estimated death toll**|**Earthquake magnitude**|**Additional information**| |1|Shaanxi, China|1556|830,000|8|More than [97 counties in China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1556_Shaanxi_earthquake) were affected. A 520-mile area was destroyed. In some counties, it's estimated that up to 60% of the population died. Such catastrophic losses are attributed to loess cave settlements, which collapsed as a result.| |2|Port-au-Prince, Haiti|2010|316,000|7|The death toll is still disputed. Here we present the adopted figure by the NGDC of the NOAA (for consistency with other earthquakes); this is the figure reported by the Haitian government. Some sources suggest a lower figure of 220,000. In the latter case, this event would fall to 7th place in the above rankings.| |3|Antakya, Turkey|115|260,000|7.5|Antioch (ancient ruins which lie near the modern city of Antakya) and surrounding areas suffered severe damage. Apamea was [also destroyed and Beirut suffered severe damage](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012821X03001444). A local [tsunami was triggered](https://www.earth-prints.org/bitstream/2122/908/1/01Sbeinati.pdf) causing damage to the coast of Lebanon.| |4|Antakya, Turkey|525|250,000|7|Severe damage to the area of the Byzantine Empire. The earthquake caused severe damage to many buildings. However, severe damage was also [caused by fires in the aftermath](https://www.earth-prints.org/bitstream/2122/908/1/01Sbeinati.pdf) combined with strong wind.| |5|Tangshan, China|1976|242,769|7.5|Reported that the earthquake risk had been greatly underestimated meaning almost all buildings and structures were designed and built without seismic considerations. Estimated that [up to 85% of buildings collapsed](https://authors.library.caltech.edu/26539/). Tangshan therefore large comprised of [unreinforced brick buildings](https://www.nap.edu/login.php?record_id=19764) which resulted in a large death toll.| |6|Gyzndzha, Azerbaijan|1139|230,000|Unknown|Often [termed the Ganja earthquake](https://www.seismology.az/en/stations/5#.W7aH-ZM-eL8). Much less is documented on the specific details of this event.| |7|Sumatra, Indonesia|2004|227,899|9.1|Earthquakes in the Indian Ocean off the coast of Sumatra resulted in a series of large tsunamis ([ranging from 15 to 30 meters in height](https://soundwaves.usgs.gov/2005/03/)). Victims across 14 countries in the region with Indonesia being the hardest-hit, followed by Sri Lanka, India, and Thailand. There was no tsunami warning system in place.| |8|Damghan, Iran|856|200,000|7.9|Estimated that [the ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/856_Damghan_earthquake)[extent of the damage area was 220 miles long](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/856_Damghan_earthquake). It's also hypothesized that the ancient city of Šahr-e Qumis was so badly damaged that it was abandoned after the earthquake.| |8|Gansu, China|1920|200,000|8.3|Damage occurred [across 7 provinces and regions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1920_Haiyuan_earthquake). In some cities, almost all buildings collapsed or were buried by landslides. It was reported that additional deaths occurred due to cold exposure: fear from aftershocks meant survivors tried to rely only on temporary shelters which were unsuitable for the harsh winter.| |9|Dvin, Armenia|893|150,000|Unknown|The city of Dvin was destroyed, with the collapse of most buildings, defensive walls, and palaces; [estimated that only 100 buildings were left standing](https://www.earth-prints.org/bitstream/2122/1795/1/22%20hasrat'yan.pdf). With its city defenses ruined, Dvin was [taken over and turned into a military base](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/893_Dvin_earthquake) by Muhammad ibn Abi'l-Saj, the Sajid emir of Adharbayjan.| |10|Tokyo, Japan|1923|142,807|7.9|More than [half of brick buildings, and 10% of reinforced structures](https://www.britannica.com/event/Tokyo-Yokohama-earthquake-of-1923) collapsed. Caused a tsunami with a height of up to 12m. Large fires broke out; combined with a large tornado, these spread quickly.| ## Volcanoes ### Number of significant volcanic eruptions There are a large number of volcanoes across the world that are volcanically active but display little or only very low-level activity. In the map, we see the number of _significant_ volcanic eruptions that occur in each country in a given year. A significant eruption is classified as one that meets at least one of the following criteria: caused fatalities, caused moderate damage (approximately $1 million or more), with a [Volcanic Explosivity Index](https://ourworldindata.org/natural-disasters#volcanic-explosivity-index-vei) of 6 or larger, caused a tsunami, or was associated with a major earthquake.6 Estimates of volcanic eruptions are available dating back as early as 1750 BCE, however, the data completeness for long historic events will be much lower than in the recent past. <Chart url="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/significant-volcanic-eruptions"/> ### Deaths from volcanic eruptions In the visualization, we see the number of deaths from significant volcanic eruptions across the world. Using the timeline on the map we can see the frequency of volcanic activity deaths over time. If we look at deaths over the past century we see several high-impact events: the [Nevado del Ruiz eruption](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armero_tragedy) in Colombia in 1985; the Mount Pelée eruption in Martinique in 1902; and the [1883 eruption of Krakatoa](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1883_eruption_of_Krakatoa) in Indonesia. <Chart url="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/deaths-from-volcanic-eruptions"/> ## Landslides This visualization – sourced from the NASA Socioeconomic Data And Applications Center (SEDAC) – shows the distribution of mortality risk from landslides across the world. As we would expect, the risks of landslides are much greater close to highly mountainous regions with dense neighboring populations. This makes the mortality risk highest across the Andes region in South America, and the Himalayas across Asia. <Image filename="ourworldindata_global-landslide-mortality-risk-distribution-–-sedac-nasa0.png" alt="Global Landslide Mortality Risk Distribution – SEDAC (NASA)0"/> ## Famines & Droughts We cover the history of Famines in detail in our dedicated entry **[here](https://ourworldindata.org/famines)**. For this research, we assembled a global dataset on famines dating back to the 1860s. In the visualization shown here, we see trends in drought severity in the United States. Given is the annual data of drought severity, plus the 9-year average. This is measured by the Palmer Drought Severity Index: the average moisture conditions observed between 1931 and 1990 at a given location are given an index value of zero. A positive value means conditions are wetter than average, while a negative value is drier than average. A value between -2 and -3 indicates moderate drought, -3 to -4 is severe drought, and -4 or below indicates extreme drought. <Chart url="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/drought-severity-index-us"/> ## Hurricanes, Tornados, and Cyclones ### Long-term trends in deaths from US weather events Trends in the US provide some of the most complete data on impacts and deaths from weather events over time. This chart shows death rates from lightning and other weather events in the United States over time. Death rates are given as the number of deaths per million individuals. Over this period, we see that on average each has seen a significant decline in death rates. This is primarily the result of improved infrastructure and predicted and response systems to disaster events. <Chart url="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/fatality-rates-in-the-us-due-to-weather-events"/> ### Intensity of North Atlantic Hurricanes A key metric for assessing hurricane severity is their intensity and the power they carry. The visualizations here use two metrics to define this: the accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), an index that measures the activity of a cyclone season; and the power dissipation index of cyclones. <Chart url="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/ace-north-atlantic-hurricanes"/> <Chart url="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cyclone-power-dissipation-index"/> ## Extreme precipitation and flooding ### Precipitation anomalies In the visualization shown, we see the global precipitation anomaly each year; trends in the US-specific anomaly can be found [here](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/precipitation-anomaly). This precipitation anomaly is measured relative to the century average from 1901 to 2000. Positive values indicate a wetter year than normal; negative values indicate a drier year. Also shown is US-specific data on the share of land area that experiences unusually high precipitation in any given year. <Chart url="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-precipitation-anomaly"/> <Chart url="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/unusually-high-precipitation-usa"/> ### Precipitation extremes We can look at precipitation anomalies over the course of the year, however, flooding events are often caused by intense rainfall over much shorter periods. Flooding events tend to occur when there is extremely high rainfall for hours or days. The visualization here shows the extent of extreme one-day precipitation in the US. What we see is a general upward trend in the extent of extreme rainfall in recent decades. <Chart url="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/extreme-one-day-precipitation-usa"/> ## Extreme Temperature (Heat & Cold) Extreme temperature risks to human health and mortality can result from exposure to extreme heat and cold. ### Heatwaves and high temperatures In the visualizations shown here, we see long-term data on heatwaves and unusually high temperatures in the United States. Overall we see there is significant year-to-year variability in the extent of heatwave events. What stands out over the past century of data was the [1936 North American heatwave](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1936_North_American_heat_wave) – one of the most extreme heat wave events in modern history, which coincided with the Great Depression and Dust Bowl of the 1930s. When we look at the trajectory of unusually high summer temperatures over time (defined as 'unusually high' in the context of historical records) we see an upward trend in recent decades. <Chart url="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/heat-wave-index-usa"/> <Chart url="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/high-summer-temp-usa"/> ### Cold temperatures Whilst we often focus on the heatwaves and warm temperatures in relation to weather extremes, extremely low temperatures can often have a high toll on human health and mortality. In the visualization here we show trends in the share of US land area experiencing unusually low winter temperatures. In recent years there appears to have been a declining trend in the extent of the US experiencing particularly cold winters. <Chart url="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/low-winter-temps-usa"/> ## Wildfires ### US Wildfires How are the frequency and extent of wildfires in the United States changing over time? In the charts below we provide three overviews: the number of wildfires, the total acres burned, and the average acres burned per wildfire. This data is shown from 1983 onwards when comparable data recording began. Over the past 30-35 years we notice three general trends in the charts below (although there is significant year-to-year variability): * on average, the annual number of wildfires has not changed much; * on average, the total acres burned has increased from the 1980s and 1990s into the 21st century; * The combination of these two factors suggests that the average number of acres burned _per wildfire_ has increased. There has been significant media coverage of the long-run statistics of US wildfires reported by the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC). The original statistics are available back to the year 1926. When we look at this long-term series it suggests there has been a significant decline in acres burned over the past century. However, the NIFC explicitly states: _Prior to 1983, sources of these figures were not known, or could not be confirmed, and were not derived from the current situation reporting process. As a result, the figures prior to 1983 should not be compared to later data._ Representatives from the NIFC have again confirmed (see the Carbon Brief's coverage **[here](https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-how-global-warming-has-increased-us-wildfires)**) that these historic statistics are not comparable to those since 1983. The lack of reliable methods of measurement and reporting means some historical statistics may in fact be double or triple-counted in national statistics. This means we cannot compare the recent data below with old, historic records. But it also doesn't confirm that acres burned today are higher than in the first half of the 20th century. Historically, fires were an [often-used method](https://www.fs.fed.us/research/sustain/docs/national-reports/2003/data/documents/Indicator%2015/Indicator%2015.pdf) of clearing land for agriculture, for example. It's not implausible to expect that wildfires of the past may have been larger than today but the available data is not reliable enough to confirm this. <Chart url="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/wildfire-numbers-usa"/> <Chart url="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/acres-burned-usa"/> <Chart url="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/acres-burned-per-wildfire-usa"/> ## Lightning ### Long-term trends in US lightning strikes This chart shows the declining death rate due to lightning strikes in the US. In the first decade of the 20th century, the average annual rate of deaths was 4.5 per million people in the US. In the first 15 years of the 21st century, the death rate had declined to an average of 0.12 deaths per million. This is a 37-fold reduction in the likelihood of being killed by lightning in the US. <Chart url="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/fatality-rates-due-to-lightning-in-the-us"/> ### Lightning strikes across the world The map here shows the distribution of lightning strikes across the world. This is given as the lightning strike density – the average number of strikes per square kilometer each year. In particular, we see the high frequency of strikes across the Equatorial regions, especially across central Africa. <Image filename="ourworldindata_world-map-of-frequency-of-lightning-strikes-–-wikipedia-nasa-data0.png" alt="World Map of Frequency of lightning strikes – Wikipedia [NASA data]0"/> --- # Economic costs --- ## Global disaster costs Natural disasters not only have devastating impacts in terms of the loss of human life but can also cause severe destruction with economic costs. When we look at global economic costs over time in [absolute terms](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/damage-costs-from-natural-disasters) we tend to see rising costs. But, importantly, the world – and most countries – have also [gotten richer](https://ourworldindata.org/economic-growth). Global gross domestic product has increased [more than four-fold](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/world-gdp-over-the-last-two-millennia?time=1900..2015) since 1970. We might therefore expect that for any given disaster, the absolute economic costs could be higher than in the past. A more appropriate metric to compare economic costs over time is to look at them in relation to GDP. This is the [indicator adopted](https://sdg-tracker.org/cities#11.5.2) by all countries as part of the UN Sustainable Development Goals to monitor progress on resilience to disaster costs. In the chart, we see global direct disaster losses given as a share of GDP. <Chart url="https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/natural-disasters?facet=none&country=~OWID_WRL&Disaster+Type=All+disasters&Impact=Economic+damages+%28%25+GDP%29&Timespan=Annual&Per+capita=false&hideControls=true"/> ## Disaster costs by country Since economic losses from disasters in relation to GDP is the [indicator adopted](https://sdg-tracker.org/cities#11.5.2) by all countries within the UN Sustainable Development Goals, this data is also now reported for each country. The map shows direct disaster costs for each country as a share of its GDP. Here we see large variations by country. This data can be found in absolute terms **[here](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/direct-disaster-economic-loss?tab=chart)**. <Chart url="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/direct-disaster-loss-as-a-share-of-gdp"/> --- # Link between poverty and deaths from natural disasters --- One of the major successes over the past century has been the dramatic [decline in global deaths](https://ourworldindata.org/natural-disasters#number-of-deaths-from-natural-disasters) from natural disasters – this is despite the fact that the [human population](https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-growth) has increased rapidly over this period. Behind this improvement has been the improvement in living standards; access to and development of resilient infrastructure; and effective response systems. These factors have been driven by an [increase in incomes](https://ourworldindata.org/economic-growth) across the world. What remains true today is that populations in low-income countries – those where a large percentage of the population still lives in [extreme poverty](https://ourworldindata.org/extreme-poverty) or score low on the [Human Development Index](https://ourworldindata.org/human-development-index/) – are more vulnerable to the effects of natural disasters. We see this effect in the visualization shown. This chart shows the death rates from natural disasters – the number of deaths per 100,000 population – of countries grouped by their socio-demographic index (SDI). SDI is a metric of development, where low SDI denotes countries with low standards of living. What we see is that the large spikes in death rates occur almost exclusively for countries with a low or low-middle SDI. Highly developed countries are much more resilient to disaster events and therefore have a consistently low death rate from natural disasters. Note that this does not mean low-income countries have high death tolls from disasters year-to-year: the data here shows that in most years they also have very low death rates. But when low-frequency, high-impact events do occur they are particularly vulnerable to its effects. Overall development, poverty alleviation, and knowledge-sharing of how to increase resilience to natural disasters will therefore be key to reducing the toll of disasters in the decades to come. <Chart url="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/death-rates-from-disasters?tab=chart&facet=entity&country=World+Bank+High+Income~World+Bank+Upper+Middle+Income~World+Bank+Lower+Middle+Income~World+Bank+Low+Income"/> --- # Definitions & Metrics --- ### Hurricanes, cyclones & typhoons There are multiple terms used to describe extreme weather events: hurricanes, typhoons, cyclones, and tornadoes. What is the difference between these terms, and how are they defined? The terms **hurricane**, **cyclone,** and **typhoon** all refer to the same thing; they can be used interchangeably. Hurricanes and typhoons are both described as the weather phenomenon 'tropical cyclone'. A tropical cyclone is a weather event that originates over tropical or subtropical waters and results in a rotating, organized system of clouds and thunderstorms. Its circulation patterns should be closed and low-level. The choice of terminology is location-specific and depends on where the storm originates. The term _hurricane_ is used to describe a tropical cyclone that originates in the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific. When it originates in the Northwest Pacific, we call it a _typhoon_. In the South Pacific and Indian Ocean the general term _tropical cyclone_ is used. In other words, [the only difference](https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/cyclone.html) between a hurricane and a typhoon is where it occurs. ### When does a storm become a hurricane? The characteristics of a hurricane are described in detail on the [NASA website](https://www.nasa.gov/audience/forstudents/k-4/stories/nasa-knows/what-are-hurricanes-k4.html). A hurricane evolves from a tropical disturbance or storm based on a threshold of wind speed. A tropical disturbance arises over warm ocean waters. It can grow into a tropical depression which is an area of rotating thunderstorms with winds up to 62 kilometers (38 miles) per hour. From there, a depression evolves into a tropical storm if its wind speed reaches 63 km/hr (39 mph). Finally, a hurricane is formed when a tropical storm reaches a wind speed of 119 km/hr (74 mph). ### Difference between hurricanes and tornadoes But, hurricanes/typhoons/cyclones _are_ distinctly different from tornadoes. Whilst hurricanes and tornadoes have a characteristic circulatory wind pattern, they are very different weather systems. The main [difference between the systems](https://pmm.nasa.gov/resources/faq/what-difference-between-tornado-and-hurricane) is scale (tornadoes are small-scale circulatory systems; hurricanes are large-scale). These differences are highlighted in the table below: |** **|**Hurricanes/typhoons**|**Tornadoes**| |**Diameter**|60 to 1000s miles|Up to 1 - 1.5 miles (usually less)| |**Wind speed**|74 to 200 mph|40 to 300 mph| |**Lifetime**|Long (usually days)|Very short (usually minutes)| |**Travel distance**|Long (100 meters to 100 miles)|Short distances| |**Environmental impact**|Can have an impact on the wider environment and atmospheric patterns.|Local (although can be very high impact). Little wider impact on atmospheric systems or the environment.| ### Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) The intensity or size of volcanic eruptions is most commonly defined by a metric termed the 'volcanic explosivity index (VEI)'. The VEI is derived based on the erupted mass or deposit of an eruption. The scale for VEI was outlined by Newhall & Self (1982) but is now commonly adopted in geophysical reporting.7 The table below provides a summary (from the [NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center](https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/hazel/view/hazards/volcano/event-data)) of the characteristics of eruptions of different VEI values. A 'Significant Volcanic Eruption' is often defined as an eruption with a VEI value of 6 or greater. Historic eruptions that were definitely explosive, but carry no other descriptive information are assigned a default VEI of 2. |**Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI)**|**General description**|**Cloud Column Height (km)**|**Volume (m³)**|**Qualitative Description**|**Classification**|**How frequent?**|**Example**| |0|Non-explosive|< 0.1 km|1x10⁴|Gentle|Hawaiian|daily|Kilauea| |1|Small|0.1 - 1 km|1x10⁶|Effusive|Haw/Strombolian|daily|Stromboli| |2|Moderate|1 - 5 km|1x10⁷|Explosive|Strom/Vulcanian|weekly|Galeras, 1992| |3|Moderate-Large|3 - 15 km|1x10⁸|Explosive|Vulcanian|annually|Ruiz, 1985| |4|Large|10 - 25 km|1x10⁹|Explosive|Vulc/Plinian|10's of years|Galunggung, 1982| |5|Very Large|> 25 km|1x10¹⁰|Cataclysmic|Plinian|100's of years|St. Helens, 1981| |6||> 25 km|1x10¹¹|Paroxysmal|Plin/Ultra-Plinian|100's of years|Krakatau, 1883| |7||> 25 km|1x10¹²|Colossal|Ultra-Plinian|1000’s of years|Tambora, 1815| |8||> 25 km|>1x10¹²|Colossal|Ultra-Plinian|10,000's of years|Yellowstone, 2 Ma| <AllCharts heading="Interactive charts on natural disasters"/> --- # Data Quality --- ### Number of reported disaster events A key issue of data quality is the consistency of even reporting over time. For long-term trends in natural disaster events, we know that reporting and recording of events today is much more advanced and complete than in the past. This can lead to significant underreporting or uncertainty of events in the distant past. In the chart here we show data on the number of _reported_ natural disasters over time. This change over time can be influenced by several factors, namely the increased coverage of reporting over time. The increase over time is therefore not directly reflective of the _actual_ trend in disaster events. ### Number of reported disasters by type This same data is shown here as the number of _reported_ disaster events by type. Again, the incompleteness of historical data can lead to significant underreporting in the past. The increase over time is therefore not directly reflective of the _actual_ trend in disaster events. <Chart url="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/natural-disasters-by-type"/> EMDAT (2019): OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database, Université Catholique de Louvain – Brussels – Belgium EM-DAT, CRED / UCLouvain, Brussels, Belgium – [www.emdat.be](http://www.emdat.be) (D. Guha-Sapir) Since two events are ranked equally in 8th place, a total of 11 are included. National Geophysical Data Center / World Data Service (NGDC/WDS): Significant Earthquake Database. National Geophysical Data Center, NOAA. Available at: [https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/hazel/view/hazards/earthquake/search](https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/hazel/view/hazards/earthquake/search). The death toll of the Haitian earthquake is still disputed. Here we present the adopted figure by the NGDC of the NOAA (for consistency with other earthquakes); this is the figure reported by the Haitian government. Some sources suggest a lower figure of 220,000. In the latter case, this event would fall to 7th place in the above rankings. This data is sourced from the [Significant Volcanic Eruption Database](https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/hazel/view/hazards/volcano/event-search/) is a global listing of over 500 significant eruptions. Newhall, C.G. and Self, S (1982). The volcanic explosivity index (VEI): an estimate of explosive magnitude for historical volcanism._Jour Geophys Res (Oceans & Atmospheres)_, 87:1231-1238. Available at: [https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/JC087iC02p01231](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/JC087iC02p01231). | Natural Disasters |