posts_gdocs: 149zTbHYFsEqfAI2fwNhWOg-1kEDZIfwT92JsibJRcwg
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149zTbHYFsEqfAI2fwNhWOg-1kEDZIfwT92JsibJRcwg | climate-change-support | article | { "toc": [], "body": [ { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "People across the world, and the political spectrum, underestimate levels of support for climate action.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "This \u201cperception gap\u201d matters. Governments will change policy if they think they have strong public backing. Companies need to know that consumers want to see low-carbon products and changes in business practices. We\u2019re all more likely to make changes if we think others will do the same.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "If governments, companies, innovators, and our neighbors know that most people are worried about the climate and want to see change, they\u2019ll be more willing to drive it.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "On the flip side, if we systematically ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "children": [ { "text": "underestimate", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-italic" }, { "text": " widespread support, we\u2019ll keep quiet for fear of \u201crocking the boat\u201d.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "This matters not only ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "children": [ { "text": "within", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-italic" }, { "text": " each country but also in how we cooperate internationally. No country can solve climate change on its own. If we think that people in other countries don\u2019t care and won\u2019t act, we\u2019re more likely to sit back as we consider our efforts hopeless.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "text": [ { "text": "Support for climate action is high across the world", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "type": "heading", "level": 1, "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "The majority of people in every country in the world worry about climate change and support policies to tackle it. We can see this in the survey data shown on the map.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "Surveys can produce unreliable \u2014 even conflicting \u2014 results depending on the population sample, what questions are asked, and the framing, so I\u2019ve looked at several reputable sources to see how they compare. While the figures vary a bit depending on the specific question asked, the results are pretty consistent.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "In a ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adj5778", "children": [ { "text": "recent paper", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-link" }, { "text": " published in ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "children": [ { "text": "Science Advances", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-italic" }, { "text": ", Madalina Vlasceanu and colleagues surveyed 59,000 people across 63 countries.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "#note-1", "children": [ { "children": [ { "text": "1", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-superscript" } ], "spanType": "span-ref" }, { "text": " \u201cBelief\u201d in climate change was 86%. Here, \u201cbelief\u201d was measured based on answers to questions about whether action was necessary to avoid a global catastrophe, whether humans were causing climate change, whether it was a serious threat to humanity, and whether it was a global emergency.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "People think climate change is a serious threat, and humans are the cause. Concern was high across countries: even in the country with the lowest agreement, 73% agreed.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "You can see the differences in this score across countries in the map below.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-believe-climate", "type": "chart", "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "The majority also supported climate policies, with an average global score of 72%. \u201cPolicy support\u201d was measured as the average across nine interventions, including carbon taxes on fossil fuels, expanding public transport, more renewable energy, more electric car chargers, taxes on airlines, and protecting forests. In the country with the lowest support, there was still a majority (59%) who supported these policies.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "These scores are high considering the wide range of policies suggested.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/support-policies-climate", "type": "chart", "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "Another recent paper published in ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "children": [ { "text": "Nature Climate Change", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-italic" }, { "text": " found similarly high support for political change. Peter Andre et al. (2024) surveyed almost 130,000 individuals across 125 countries.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "#note-2", "children": [ { "children": [ { "text": "2", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-superscript" } ], "spanType": "span-ref" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "89% wanted to see more political action. 86% think people in their country \u201cshould try to fight global warming\u201d (", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/support-public-action-climate", "children": [ { "text": "explore the data", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-link" }, { "text": "). And 69% said they would be willing to contribute at least 1% of their income to tackle climate change. We\u2019ll look at this \u201cwillingness to pay\u201d later.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "Support for political action was strong across the world, as shown on the map below.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/support-political-climate-action", "type": "chart", "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "To ensure these results weren\u2019t outliers, I looked at several other studies in the United States and the United Kingdom.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "70% to 83% of Americans answered \u201cyes\u201d to a range of surveys focused on whether humans were causing climate change, whether it was a concern, and a threat to humanity. In the UK, the share who agreed was between 73% and 90%. I\u2019ve left details of these surveys in the footnote.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "#note-3", "children": [ { "children": [ { "text": "3", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-superscript" } ], "spanType": "span-ref" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "The fact that the majority of people \u201cbelieve\u201d in climate change and think it\u2019s a problem is consistent across studies.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "text": [ { "text": "Most people underestimate popular support for climate action", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "type": "heading", "level": 1, "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "Most of us systematically underestimate how widespread support for climate action is.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "We see evidence for this in the study by Andre et al. (2024) we already looked at. It asked people if they\u2019d be willing to give 1% of their income to tackle climate change. Across the 125-country sample, 69% said \u201cyes\u201d.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "They then asked the same participants what share of ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "children": [ { "text": "others", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-italic" }, { "text": " in their country would say \u201cyes\u201d to the same question. The average across countries was just 43%.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "This wasn\u2019t just the case in some countries; it was the case in every country. You can see this in the chart below. On the horizontal axis, we have the share that said they were willing to give 1% of their income. On the vertical axis is the perceived share of how many would be willing to give. Every single country falls below the \u201cequity\u201d line, meaning that the share was underestimated everywhere.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "More people in our country care about this issue than we think.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "One interesting observation is that populations in low- and middle-income countries are more willing to pay than in rich countries. 83% of those in Bangladesh said yes, compared to 48% in the UK or the US. This might reflect levels of climate risk: if your livelihood was at risk from climate-related disasters, then you are more willing to give up some of your income. This feeling of threat might be less salient in richer, more temperate countries.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "We should always be cautious when examining people\u2019s claims that they are willing to pay. Saying you\u2019ll give up some of your income is not the same as actually doing it. Nonetheless, these results tell us that there is a \u201cperception gap\u201d in how we view our own climate opinions and those of others.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/willingness-climate-action", "type": "chart", "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "Other studies document the same. A ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-32412-y", "children": [ { "text": "study published", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-link" }, { "text": " in ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "children": [ { "text": "Nature Communications", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-italic" }, { "text": " found that 80% to 90% of Americans underestimated public support for climate policies.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "#note-4", "children": [ { "children": [ { "text": "4", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-superscript" } ], "spanType": "span-ref" }, { "text": " And not by a small amount: they thought that just 37% to 43% were supporters, despite the actual number being 66% to 80%. In other words, they thought people ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "children": [ { "text": "in favor", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-italic" }, { "children": [ { "text": " of", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-italic" }, { "text": " climate policies were in the minority. In reality, the opposite was true: more than two-thirds of the country wants to see more action.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "Another study ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/british-journal-of-political-science/article/beliefs-about-climate-beliefs-the-importance-of-secondorder-opinions-for-climate-politics/E35B49C0DD4A9F814B4281A00CC42450", "children": [ { "text": "found the same", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-link" }, { "text": " underestimation in both the US and China. This was true across the general public, but also the \u201cintellectual elites\u201d and \u201cpublic elites\u201d: key decision-makers and communicators also think climate support is much lower than it is.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "It even holds true when you focus on Republican voters in the US. In most countries in the world, there is a \u201cpartisan gap\u201d on climate change: those on the political left tend to think it is a higher priority than those on the political right. But this gap is often smaller than people think: in most countries, there is ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "https://potentialenergycoalition.org/global-report/", "children": [ { "text": "still majority support", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-link" }, { "text": " for action among supporters of right-wing parties.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "#note-5", "children": [ { "children": [ { "text": "5", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-superscript" } ], "spanType": "span-ref" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "The \u201cpartisan gap\u201d in the US is bigger than elsewhere. But, again, it\u2019s smaller than people think \u2014 especially Republican voters themselves. A ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01240-x", "children": [ { "text": "study published", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-link" }, { "text": " in ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "children": [ { "text": "Nature Communications", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-italic" }, { "text": " found that Republicans consistently underestimated levels of support for a range of climate policies among their fellow voters.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "#note-6", "children": [ { "children": [ { "text": "6", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-superscript" } ], "spanType": "span-ref" }, { "text": " This misperception was strongest among Republican voters who ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "children": [ { "text": "opposed", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-italic" }, { "text": " climate policies. They falsely assumed that most other Republicans held the same views as them.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "text": [ { "text": "Why does this \u201cperception gap\u201d exist?", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "type": "heading", "level": 1, "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "This \u201cperception gap\u201d isn\u2019t limited to climate change. It\u2019s well-documented across a range of measures. On Our World in Data, we have previously documented the \u201c", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/happiness-and-life-satisfaction", "children": [ { "text": "happiness gap", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-link" }, { "text": "\u201d: in every country, people underestimate how happy others are with their lives.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "The perception gap might be ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/optimism-and-pessimism#individual-optimism-and-social-pessimism", "children": [ { "text": "partly explained", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-link" }, { "text": " by the fact that people tend to be positive about themselves, but negative about other people they don't know. This is often referred to as \u201cindividual optimism and societal pessimism\u201d.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "#note-7", "children": [ { "children": [ { "text": "7", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-superscript" } ], "spanType": "span-ref" }, { "children": [ { "text": " ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-bold" }, { "text": "As one survey organization ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "https://eupinions.eu/de/text/the-optimism-gap", "children": [ { "text": "puts it", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-link" }, { "text": ":", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "text": [ { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "\u201cSocietal pessimism describes the concern that society is in decline and heading in the wrong direction. Interestingly, a rather substantial quantity of people think that their country is not doing well overall, while still being generally quite satisfied with and hopeful about their own lives.\u201d", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] } ], "type": "blockquote", "citation": "", "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "How does this relate to climate change? We might be individual optimists about our ability to trust and reason with evidence, and support policies that protect us and future generations, but be pessimistic that others do the same.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "There are other explanations for why this perception gap exists.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "Social media probably plays some role. On social media, extreme opinions are amplified.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "#note-8", "children": [ { "children": [ { "text": "8", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-superscript" } ], "spanType": "span-ref" }, { "text": " We might hear more voices that are extremely opposed to climate action, while we hear very little from the average voter who supports it.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "Mainstream media has influence too. Polarizing stories make better headlines. \u201cMost people support climate action\u201d isn\u2019t an exciting story.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "#note-9", "children": [ { "children": [ { "text": "9", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-superscript" } ], "spanType": "span-ref" }, { "text": " You\u2019ll get more clicks by making people angry at others for disagreeing.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "\u201cBoth sides\u201d debates, for example in talk shows, can also give people the impression that they accurately reflect balance among the public. People think that far more people are opposed to climate action as a result.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "text": [ { "text": "The debate is now about the merits of different solutions, not whether we should act", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "type": "heading", "level": 1, "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "For decades, the world debated whether climate change was happening, if humans were causing it, and if we should do something.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "If you ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/concern-about-climate-change-reaches-record-levels-half-now-very-concerned", "children": [ { "text": "look at levels of concern", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-link" }, { "text": " in the UK since the millennium, for example, you find an interesting decline-then-rise. In the first decade of the 2000s, environmental concerns were very high. In 2005/06, 82% of Brits said they were concerned about \u201cglobal warming\u201d. This was around the time that Al Gore\u2019s film ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "children": [ { "text": "An Inconvenient Truth", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-italic" }, { "text": " was released. The ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/publication/the-economics-of-climate-change-the-stern-review/", "children": [ { "text": "Stern Report", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-link" }, { "text": " on the impacts and economics of climate change was published. And not far ahead of the release of the ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "https://www.theccc.org.uk/what-is-climate-change/a-legal-duty-to-act/#:~:text=The%20Climate%20Change%20Act%202008,to%20deliver%20on%20these%20requirements.", "children": [ { "text": "UK\u2019s Climate Change Act", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-link" }, { "text": ". However, in the early 2010s, concern dropped dramatically, falling to just 60%. This might have resulted from the financial crisis, and other problems taking center stage. Climate change fell off the agenda. But since then, concern has rebounded, and is now back to record levels.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "In the last decade, the conversation has moved on from \u201cIs climate change happening?\u201d. Most people in the world are convinced and concerned, and want to see strong and urgent action.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "This fact is a victory for climate scientists. It\u2019s hard to attribute this outcome to specific drivers, but the relentless work of climate scientists to gather and present evidence, climate activism (which can take many forms), and the increasingly visible ways that climate change is showing up in people\u2019s lives have all played a role in gaining public attention. In the ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/concern-about-climate-change-reaches-record-levels-half-now-very-concerned", "children": [ { "text": "same survey", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-link" }, { "text": " in the UK, the share saying that \u201cwe are already feeling the effects of climate change\u201d increased from 41% in 2010 to 73% in 2019.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "The new debate, then, is ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "children": [ { "text": "what", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-italic" }, { "text": " we should do. That will require a different focus for communication.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "The OECD ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "https://www.oecd.org/climate-change/international-attitudes-toward-climate-policies/", "children": [ { "text": "surveyed 40,000 people", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-link" }, { "text": " across 20 countries to understand their attitudes to climate policies. It found three key predictors of support: the perceived ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "children": [ { "text": "distributional", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-italic" }, { "text": " impacts of policies (including whether the individual would be worse off); their perceived ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "children": [ { "text": "effectiveness", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-italic" }, { "text": " in reducing emissions; and how ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "children": [ { "text": "progressive", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-italic" }, { "text": " the policies were (support dropped if people thought policies would hit the poorest hardest).", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "The OECD had three treatment conditions. One group was shown a video about the impacts of climate change. A second group was shown a video about the impacts of specific climate policies. The third group was shown both videos. The survey measured their levels of support for specific policies before and after the videos were shown. The video showing the ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "children": [ { "text": "impacts", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-italic" }, { "text": " of climate change was the least successful in increasing support. Informing people about the specifics of the policy performed much better. And the best result came from showing people both.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "This makes sense. If someone is skeptical of the costs of renewable energy, the carbon footprint of an electric car compared to a petrol one, or whether heat pumps work, talking ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "children": [ { "text": "only", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-italic" }, { "text": " about rising temperatures is not going to shift their position. To do that, we need to engage with their legitimate concerns about the effectiveness and possible negative impacts of these changes. We need to communicate what these changes mean \u2014 or don\u2019t mean \u2014 for their individual lives, community, energy prices, or income. We need to explain the potential trade-offs ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "children": [ { "text": "and", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-italic" }, { "text": " talk about the benefits.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "This is crucial. A ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "https://potentialenergycoalition.org/guides-and-reports/global-report/", "children": [ { "text": "massive study", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-link" }, { "text": " of nearly 60,000 people across 23 countries on climate messaging found, again, that there was very strong support for political action.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "#note-5", "children": [ { "children": [ { "text": "5", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-superscript" } ], "spanType": "span-ref" }, { "text": " However, the support for specific policies was much more varied. Importantly, the framings of specific interventions mattered a lot. Policies built around \u201cclean energy\u201d, for example, got very strong support on both the left and the right. Negative framings such as \u201cphasing out\u201d or \u201cending\u201d practices were much more polarizing.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "The problem is that we often don\u2019t get into specifics of solutions because we think we still have to convince people that climate change is a problem.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "As researchers concerned about climate change, we still need to discuss its damaging impacts. But we need to shift much of the conversation towards solutions \u2014 what they are, how effective they are, what the benefits might be. That is the current roadblock to reducing emissions, not the recognition that we need to do so. The majority \u2014 in all countries \u2014 agree.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "text": [ { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "Many thanks to Max Roser and Edouard Mathieu for their valuable feedback and comments on this article.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] } ], "type": "callout", "title": "Acknowledgements", "parseErrors": [] } ], "refs": { "errors": [], "definitions": { "01280bd483cf5d59d35bb6ae6a7be6be38d83287": { "id": "01280bd483cf5d59d35bb6ae6a7be6be38d83287", "index": 1, "content": [ { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "Andre, P., Boneva, T., Chopra, F., & Falk, A. (2024). Globally representative evidence on the actual and perceived support for climate action. 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Later is Too Late: A comprehensive analysis of the messaging that accelerates climate action in the G20 and beyond.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] } ], "parseErrors": [] }, "83596dc6d61cbbafcb5471173638b7f89a2d008e": { "id": "83596dc6d61cbbafcb5471173638b7f89a2d008e", "index": 8, "content": [ { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "Though it is literally this story.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] } ], "parseErrors": [] }, "934fc33d9035c67a3489e6e9c8dd0ceea7ff724f": { "id": "934fc33d9035c67a3489e6e9c8dd0ceea7ff724f", "index": 2, "content": [ { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "In a 2023 ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2023/10/25/how-americans-view-future-harms-from-climate-change-in-their-community-and-around-the-u-s/", "children": [ { "text": "Pew Research Center survey", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-link" }, { "text": ", 74% of Americans said the US should be involved in international climate action. 72% care \u201ca great deal\u201d or \u201csome\u201d about climate change.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "In a representative ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "https://climatepublicopinion.stanford.edu/fundamentals", "children": [ { "text": "survey conducted by Stanford University", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-link" }, { "text": ", 82% of Americans said that \u2018\u201cHumans are at least partly responsible for warming\u201d. 80% thought it was a \u201cvery\u201d or \u201csomewhat\u201d serious problem for the US. 82% thought it was a \u201cvery\u201d or \u201csomewhat\u201d serious problem for the world.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "The ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/global-warmings-six-americas-december-2022/", "children": [ { "text": "Yale Program on Climate Communication", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-link" }, { "text": " found that 70% of Americans were \u201calarmed\u201d, \u201cconcerned\u201d, or \u201ccautious\u201d about climate change.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "In an ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/2023-Ipsos-Global-Trends-Report.pdf", "children": [ { "text": "Ipsos Mori survey", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-link" }, { "text": ", 72% of Americans said \u201cWe are heading for environmental disaster unless we change our habits quickly\u201d.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "In a 2023 survey by the ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "https://www.edelman.com/sites/g/files/aatuss191/files/2023-11/2023%20Edelman%20Trust%20Barometer%20Special%20Report%20Trust%20and%20Climate.pdf", "children": [ { "text": "Edelman Trust Barometer", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-link" }, { "text": ", 83% of Americans agreed that \u201cI believe that climate change poses a serious and imminent threat to the planet\u201d.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "The response in the UK to this same question was 90%.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "A 2023 survey by ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/one-four-britons-think-climate-change-out-control", "children": [ { "text": "Ipsos Mori", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-link" }, { "text": " in the UK found that 77% were concerned about climate change.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] } ], "parseErrors": [] }, "b429d3d48a4227d029a284df70a58f3fed98501e": { "id": "b429d3d48a4227d029a284df70a58f3fed98501e", "index": 6, "content": [ { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "In his 2018 book \u2014 I'm Fine, But We're Not Doing Well \u2014 the sociologist, Paul Schnabel, looked at decades of opinion data from the Netherlands. He found that people were consistently happy with their own personal lives, but always thought that their country was doing poorly.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] } ], "parseErrors": [] }, "e19f3693c1f1f804157c8da24d68147561b962b0": { "id": "e19f3693c1f1f804157c8da24d68147561b962b0", "index": 3, "content": [ { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "Sparkman, G., Geiger, N., & Weber, E. U. (2022). Americans experience a false social reality by underestimating popular climate policy support by nearly half. Nature Communications, 13(1), 4779.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] } ], "parseErrors": [] }, "ebd3e872c840ba46af4ebbec4c5977d3d2ecad6f": { "id": "ebd3e872c840ba46af4ebbec4c5977d3d2ecad6f", "index": 7, "content": [ { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "Lim, S. L., & Bentley, P. J. (2022). Opinion amplification causes extreme polarization in social networks. Scientific Reports, 12(1), 18131.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] } ], "parseErrors": [] }, "f402a3ec7f8b3cd110bc0ba8a4422cbacc019a80": { "id": "f402a3ec7f8b3cd110bc0ba8a4422cbacc019a80", "index": 0, "content": [ { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "Vlasceanu, M., Doell, K. C., Bak-Coleman, J. B., Todorova, B., Berkebile-Weinberg, M. M., Grayson, S. J., ... & Lutz, A. E. (2024). Addressing climate change with behavioral science: A global intervention tournament in 63 countries. Science Advances.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] } ], "parseErrors": [] } } }, "type": "article", "title": "More people care about climate change than you think", "authors": [ "Hannah Ritchie" ], "excerpt": "The majority of people in every country support action on climate, but the public consistently underestimates this share.", "dateline": "March 25, 2024", "subtitle": "The majority of people in every country support action on climate, but the public consistently underestimates this share.", "featured-image": "climate-perception.png" } |
1 | 2024-02-20 11:51:20 | 2024-03-25 10:48:30 | 2024-03-25 10:48:41 | listed | ALBJ4Ls2vqT2IEeApbk-AdBkpnChg1iMu4RrjPNHHW6aQKxc4nl2MUv4qJXiCXcA9tmN489Ktt8qGNtUiccZGw | People across the world, and the political spectrum, underestimate levels of support for climate action. This “perception gap” matters. Governments will change policy if they think they have strong public backing. Companies need to know that consumers want to see low-carbon products and changes in business practices. We’re all more likely to make changes if we think others will do the same. If governments, companies, innovators, and our neighbors know that most people are worried about the climate and want to see change, they’ll be more willing to drive it. On the flip side, if we systematically _underestimate_ widespread support, we’ll keep quiet for fear of “rocking the boat”. This matters not only _within_ each country but also in how we cooperate internationally. No country can solve climate change on its own. If we think that people in other countries don’t care and won’t act, we’re more likely to sit back as we consider our efforts hopeless. # Support for climate action is high across the world The majority of people in every country in the world worry about climate change and support policies to tackle it. We can see this in the survey data shown on the map. Surveys can produce unreliable — even conflicting — results depending on the population sample, what questions are asked, and the framing, so I’ve looked at several reputable sources to see how they compare. While the figures vary a bit depending on the specific question asked, the results are pretty consistent. In a [recent paper](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adj5778) published in _Science_, Madalina Vlasceanu and colleagues surveyed 59,000 people across 63 countries.1 “Belief” in climate change was 86%. Here, “belief” was measured based on answers to questions about whether action was necessary to avoid a global catastrophe, whether humans were causing climate change, whether it was a serious threat to humanity, and whether it was a global emergency. People think climate change is a serious threat, and humans are the cause. Concern was high across countries: even in the country with the lowest agreement, 73% agreed. You can see the differences in this score across countries in the map below. <Chart url="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-believe-climate"/> The majority also supported climate policies, with an average global score of 72%. “Policy support” was measured across nine interventions, including carbon taxes on fossil fuels, expanding public transport, more renewable energy, more electric car chargers, taxes on airlines, and protecting forests. In the country with the lowest support, there was still a majority (59%) who supported these policies. These scores are high considering the wide range of policies suggested. <Chart url="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/support-policies-climate"/> Another recent paper published in _Nature Climate Change_ found similarly high support for political change. Peter Andre et al. (2024) surveyed almost 130,000 individuals across 125 countries.2 89% wanted to see more political action. 86% think people in their country “should try to fight global warming” ([explore the data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/support-public-action-climate)). And 69% said they would be willing to contribute at least 1% of their income to tackle climate change. We’ll look at this “willingness to pay” later. Support for political action was strong across the world, as shown on the map below. <Chart url="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/support-political-climate-action"/> To ensure these results weren’t outliers, I looked at several other studies in the United States and the United Kingdom. 70% to 83% of Americans answered “yes” to a range of surveys focused on whether humans were causing climate change, whether it was a concern, and a threat to humanity. In the UK, the share who agreed was between 73% and 90%. I’ve left details of these surveys in the footnote.3 The fact that the majority of people “believe” in climate change and think it’s a problem is consistent across studies. # Most people underestimate popular support for climate action Most of us systematically underestimate how widespread support for climate action is. We see evidence for this in the study by Andre et al. (2024) we already looked at. It asked people if they’d be willing to give 1% of their income to tackle climate change. Across the 125-country sample, 69% said “yes”. They then asked the same participants what share of _others_ in their country would say “yes” to the same question. The average across countries was just 43%. This wasn’t just the case in some countries; it was the case in every country. You can see this in the chart below. On the horizontal axis, we have the share that said they were willing to give 1% of their income. On the vertical axis is the perceived share of how many would be willing to give. Every single country falls below the “equity” line, meaning that the share was underestimated everywhere. More people in our country care about this issue than we think. One interesting observation is that populations in low- and middle-income countries are more willing to pay than in rich countries. 83% of those in Bangladesh said yes, compared to 48% in the UK or the US. This might reflect levels of climate risk: if your livelihood was at risk from climate-related disasters, then you are more willing to give up some of your income. This feeling of threat might be less salient in richer, more temperate countries. We should always be cautious when examining people’s claims that they are willing to pay. Saying you’ll give up some of your income is not the same as actually doing it. Nonetheless, these results tell us that there is a “perception gap” in how we view our own climate opinions and those of others. <Chart url="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/willingness-climate-action"/> Other studies document the same. A [study published](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-32412-y) in _Nature_ found that 80% to 90% of Americans underestimated public support for climate policies.4 And not by a small amount: they thought that just 37% to 43% were supporters, despite the actual number being 66% to 80%. In other words, they thought people _in favor__ of_ climate policies were in the minority. In reality, the opposite was true: more than two-thirds of the country wants to see more action. Another study [found the same](https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/british-journal-of-political-science/article/beliefs-about-climate-beliefs-the-importance-of-secondorder-opinions-for-climate-politics/E35B49C0DD4A9F814B4281A00CC42450) underestimation in both the US and China. This was true across the general public, but also the “intellectual elites” and “public elites”: key decision-makers and communicators also think climate support is much lower than it is. It even holds true when you focus on Republican voters in the US. In most countries in the world, there is a “partisan gap” on climate change: those on the political left tend to think it is a higher priority than those on the political right. But this gap is often smaller than people think: in most countries, there is [still majority support](https://potentialenergycoalition.org/global-report/) for action among supporters of right-wing parties.5 The “partisan gap” in the US is bigger than elsewhere. But, again, it’s smaller than people think — especially Republican voters themselves. A [study published](https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01240-x) in _Nature Communications_ found that Republicans consistently underestimated levels of support for a range of climate policies among their fellow voters.6 This misperception was strongest among Republican voters who _opposed_ climate policies. They falsely assumed that most other Republicans held the same views as them. # Why does this “perception gap” exist? This “perception gap” isn’t limited to climate change. It’s well-documented across a range of measures. On Our World in Data, we have previously documented the “[happiness gap](https://ourworldindata.org/happiness-and-life-satisfaction)”: in every country, people underestimate how happy others are with their lives. The perception gap might be [partly explained](https://ourworldindata.org/optimism-and-pessimism#individual-optimism-and-social-pessimism) by the fact that people tend to be positive about themselves, but negative about other people they don't know. This is often referred to as “individual optimism and societal pessimism”.7** **As one survey organization [puts it](https://eupinions.eu/de/text/the-optimism-gap): -- How does this relate to climate change? We might be individual optimists about our ability to trust and reason with evidence, and support policies that protect us and future generations, but be pessimistic that others do the same. There are other explanations for why this perception gap exists. Social media probably plays some role. On social media, extreme opinions are amplified.8 We might hear more voices that are extremely opposed to climate action, while we hear very little from the average voter who supports it. Mainstream media has influence too. Polarizing stories make better headlines. “Most people support climate action” isn’t an exciting story.9 You’ll get more clicks by making people angry at others for disagreeing. “Both sides” debates, for example in talk shows, can also give people the impression that they accurately reflect balance among the public. People think that far more people are opposed to climate action as a result. # The debate is now about the merits of different solutions, not whether we should act For decades, the world debated whether climate change was happening, if humans were causing it, and if we should do something. If you [look at levels of concern](https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/concern-about-climate-change-reaches-record-levels-half-now-very-concerned) in the UK since the millennium, for example, you find an interesting decline-then-rise. In the first decade of the 2000s, environmental concerns were very high. In 2005/06, 82% of Brits said they were concerned about “global warming”. This was around the time that Al Gore’s film _An Inconvenient Truth_ was released. The [Stern Report](https://www.lse.ac.uk/granthaminstitute/publication/the-economics-of-climate-change-the-stern-review/) on the impacts and economics of climate change was published. And not far ahead of the release of the [UK’s Climate Change Act](https://www.theccc.org.uk/what-is-climate-change/a-legal-duty-to-act/#:~:text=The%20Climate%20Change%20Act%202008,to%20deliver%20on%20these%20requirements.). However, in the early 2010s, concern dropped dramatically, falling to just 60%. This might have resulted from the financial crisis, and other problems taking center stage. Climate change fell off the agenda. But since then, concern has rebounded, and is now back to record levels. In the last decade, the conversation has moved on from “Is climate change happening?”. Most people in the world are convinced and concerned, and want to see strong and urgent action. This fact is a victory for climate scientists. It’s hard to attribute this outcome to specific drivers, but the relentless work of climate scientists to gather and present evidence, climate activism (which can take many forms), and the increasingly visible ways that climate change is showing up in people’s lives have all played a role in gaining public attention. In the [same survey](https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/concern-about-climate-change-reaches-record-levels-half-now-very-concerned) in the UK, the share saying that “we are already feeling the effects of climate change” increased from 41% in 2010 to 73% in 2019. The new debate, then, is _what_ we should do. That will require a different focus for communication. The OECD [surveyed 40,000 people](https://www.oecd.org/climate-change/international-attitudes-toward-climate-policies/) across 20 countries to understand their attitudes to climate policies. It found three key predictors of support: the perceived _distributional_ impacts of policies (including whether the individual would be worse off); their perceived _effectiveness_ in reducing emissions; and how _progressive_ the policies were (support dropped if people thought policies would hit the poorest hardest). The OECD had three treatment conditions. One group was shown a video about the impacts of climate change. A second group was shown a video about the impacts of specific climate policies. The third group was shown both videos. The survey measured their levels of support for specific policies before and after the videos were shown. The video showing the _impacts_ of climate change was the least successful in increasing support. Informing people about the specifics of the policy performed much better. And the best result came from showing people both. This makes sense. If someone is skeptical of the costs of renewable energy, the carbon footprint of an electric car compared to a petrol one, or whether heat pumps work, talking _only_ about rising temperatures is not going to shift their position. To do that, we need to engage with their legitimate concerns about the effectiveness and possible negative impacts of these changes. We need to communicate what these changes mean — or don’t mean — for their individual lives, community, energy prices, or income. We need to explain the potential trade-offs _and_ talk about the benefits. This is crucial. A [massive study](https://potentialenergycoalition.org/guides-and-reports/global-report/) of nearly 60,000 people across 23 countries on climate messaging found, again, that there was very strong support for political action.5 However, the support for specific policies was much more varied. Importantly, the framings of specific interventions mattered a lot. Policies built around “clean energy”, for example, got very strong support on both the left and the right. Negative framings such as “phasing out” or “ending” practices were much more polarizing. The problem is that we often don’t get into specifics of solutions because we think we still have to convince people that climate change is a problem. As researchers concerned about climate change, we still need to discuss its damaging impacts. But we need to shift much of the conversation towards solutions — what they are, how effective they are, what the benefits might be. That is the current roadblock to reducing emissions, not the recognition that we need to do so. The majority — in all countries — agree. <Callout title="Acknowledgements"/> Vlasceanu, M., Doell, K. C., Bak-Coleman, J. B., Todorova, B., Berkebile-Weinberg, M. M., Grayson, S. J., ... & Lutz, A. E. (2024). Addressing climate change with behavioral science: A global intervention tournament in 63 countries. Science Advances. Andre, P., Boneva, T., Chopra, F., & Falk, A. (2024). Globally representative evidence on the actual and perceived support for climate action. Nature Climate Change, 1-7. In a 2023 [Pew Research Center survey](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2023/10/25/how-americans-view-future-harms-from-climate-change-in-their-community-and-around-the-u-s/), 74% of Americans said the US should be involved in international climate action. 72% care “a great deal” or “some” about climate change. In a representative [survey conducted by Stanford University](https://climatepublicopinion.stanford.edu/fundamentals), 82% of Americans said that ‘“Humans are at least partly responsible for warming”. 80% thought it was a “very” or “somewhat” serious problem for the US. 82% thought it was a “very” or “somewhat” serious problem for the world. The [Yale Program on Climate Communication](https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/publications/global-warmings-six-americas-december-2022/) found that 70% of Americans were “alarmed”, “concerned”, or “cautious” about climate change. In an [Ipsos Mori survey](https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/2023-Ipsos-Global-Trends-Report.pdf), 72% of Americans said “We are heading for environmental disaster unless we change our habits quickly”. In a 2023 survey by the [Edelman Trust Barometer](https://www.edelman.com/sites/g/files/aatuss191/files/2023-11/2023%20Edelman%20Trust%20Barometer%20Special%20Report%20Trust%20and%20Climate.pdf), 83% of Americans agreed that “I believe that climate change poses a serious and imminent threat to the planet”. The response in the UK to this same question was 90%. A 2023 survey by [Ipsos Mori](https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/one-four-britons-think-climate-change-out-control) in the UK found that 77% were concerned about climate change. Sparkman, G., Geiger, N., & Weber, E. U. (2022). Americans experience a false social reality by underestimating popular climate policy support by nearly half. Nature communications, 13(1), 4779. Potential Energy (2023). Later is Too Late: A comprehensive analysis of the messaging that accelerates climate action in the G20 and beyond. Dixon, G., Clarke, C., Jacquet, J., Evensen, D. T., & Hart, P. S. (2024). The complexity of pluralistic ignorance in Republican climate change policy support in the United States. Communications Earth & Environment, 5(1), 76. In his 2018 book — I'm Fine, But We're Not Doing Well — the sociologist, Paul Schnabel, looked at decades of opinion data from the Netherlands. He found that people were consistently happy with their own personal lives, but always thought that their country was doing poorly. Lim, S. L., & Bentley, P. J. (2022). Opinion amplification causes extreme polarization in social networks. Scientific Reports, 12(1), 18131. Though it is literally this story. | More people care about climate change than you think |