posts: 56663

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    "id": "wp-56663",
    "slug": "population-growth",
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                                "text": "Population growth is one of the most important topics we cover at ",
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                                        "text": "Our World in Data",
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                                "text": ".",
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                                "text": "For most of human history, the global population was",
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                                "text": "a tiny fraction of what it is today. Over the last few centuries, the human population has gone through an extraordinary change. In 1800, there were one billion people. Today there are more than 8 billion of us.",
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                                "text": "But after a period of very fast population growth, demographers expect the world population to peak by the end of this century.",
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                                "text": "On this page, you will find all of our data, charts, and writing on changes in population growth. This includes how populations are distributed worldwide, how this has changed, and what demographers expect for the future.",
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                                "text": "Related topics",
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                                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/child-mortality",
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                                                "text": "Child Mortality",
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                                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate",
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                                                "text": "Fertility Rate",
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                                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy",
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                                                "text": "Life Expectancy",
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                                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/age-structure",
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                                                "text": "Age Structure",
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                        "text": "Geographical maps show us where the world's landmasses are; not where people are. That means they don't always give us an accurate picture of how global living standards are changing. ",
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                        "text": "One way to understand the distribution of people worldwide is to redraw the world map \u2013 not based on the area but according to population.",
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                        "text": "This is shown here as a ",
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                                "text": "population cartogram",
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                        "text": ": a geographical presentation of the world where the size of countries is not drawn according to the distribution of land but by the distribution of people. It\u2019s shown for the year 2018.",
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                        "text": "As the population size rather than the territory is shown in this map, you can see some significant differences when you compare it to the standard geographical map we\u2019re most familiar with.\u00a0",
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                        "text": "Small countries with a high population density increase in size in this cartogram relative to the world maps we are used to \u2013 look at Bangladesh, Taiwan, or the Netherlands. Large countries with a small population shrink in size \u2013 look for Canada, Mongolia, Australia, or Russia.",
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                        "text": "You can find more details on this cartogram in our article about it:",
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                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-cartogram",
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "What you should know about this data",
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                                "text": "This map is based on the United Nation\u2019s 2017 World Population Prospects report. Our interactive charts show population data from the most recent UN revision. This means there may be minor differences between the figures shown on the map and the latest estimates in our other charts.",
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                        "text": "The speed of global population growth over the last few centuries has been staggering. For most of human history, the world population was well under one million.{ref}See, for example, Kremer (1993) \u2013 ",
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                        "url": "https://www.jstor.org/stable/2118405",
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                                "text": "Population growth and technological change: one million BC to 1990",
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                        "text": ". In the Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 108, No. 3, 681-716.{/ref}",
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                        "text": "As recently as 12,000 years ago, there were only 4 million people worldwide.",
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                        "text": "The chart shows the rapid increase in the global population since 1700.\u00a0",
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                        "text": "The one-billion mark wasn\u2019t broken until the early 1800s. It was only a century ago that there were 2 billion people.",
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                        "text": "Since then, the global population has quadrupled to eight billion.",
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                        "text": "Around 108 billion people have ever lived on our planet. This means that today\u2019s population size makes up 6.5% of the total number of people ever born.{ref}As per 2011 estimates from Carl Haub (2011), \u201c",
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                        "url": "https://www.prb.org/howmanypeoplehaveeverlivedonearth/",
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                                "text": "How Many People Have Ever Lived on Earth?",
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                        "text": "\u201d Population Reference Bureau.{/ref}",
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                        "text": "This increase has been the result of advances in living conditions and health that reduced death rates \u2013 especially in children \u2013 and increases in life expectancy.",
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                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/population",
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                "title": "Explore the interactive chart: Long-term population",
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                                "text": "What you should know about this data",
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                                "text": "This data comes from a combination of sources, all detailed in ",
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                                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/population-sources",
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                                        "text": "our sources article",
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                                "text": " for our long-term population dataset.",
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                        "text": "There\u2019s a popular misconception that the global population is growing exponentially. But it\u2019s not.",
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                        "text": "While the global population is still increasing in absolute numbers, population ",
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                                "text": "growth",
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                        "text": " peaked decades ago.",
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                        "text": "In the chart, we see the global population growth rate per year. This is based on historical UN estimates and its medium projection to 2100.",
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                        "text": "Global population growth peaked in the 1960s at over 2% per year. Since then, rates have more than halved, falling to less than 1%.\u00a0",
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                        "text": "The UN expects rates to continue to fall until the end of the century. In fact, towards the end of the century, it projects ",
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                                "text": "negative",
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                        "text": " growth, meaning the global population will shrink instead of grow.",
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                        "text": "Global population growth, in absolute terms \u2013 which is the number of births ",
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                                "text": "minus the number",
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                        "text": " of deaths \u2013 has also peaked. You can see this in our interactive chart:",
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                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/population-growth-the-annual-change-of-the-population?time=1950..2100",
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                        "text": "Hans Rosling famously coined the term \"",
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                        "url": "https://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_religions_and_babies/transcript",
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                                "text": "peak child",
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                        "text": "\" for the moment in global demographic history when the number of children stopped increasing.",
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                        "text": "According to the UN data, the world has passed \"peak child\", which is defined as the number of children under the age of five.",
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                        "text": "The chart shows the UN\u2019s historical estimates and projections of the number of children under five.",
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                        "text": "It estimates that the number of children in the world peaked in 2017. For the coming decades, demographers expect a decades-long plateau before the number will decline more rapidly in the second half of the century.",
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                                "text": "What you should know about this data",
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                                "text": "These projections are sensitive to the assumptions made about future fertility rates worldwide. Find out more from the ",
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                                "url": "https://population.un.org/wpp/DefinitionOfProjectionScenarios/#:~:text=The%20five%20fertility%20scenarios%20are,and%20instant%2Dreplacement%2Dfertility",
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                                        "text": "UN World Population Division",
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                                "text": ".",
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                                "text": "Other sources and scenarios in the UN\u2019s projections suggest that the peak was reached slightly earlier or later. However, most indicate that the world is close to \"peak child\" and the number of children will not increase in the coming decades.",
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                                "text": "The 'ups and downs' in this chart reflect generational effects and 'baby booms' when there are large cohorts of women of reproductive age, and high fertility rates. The timing of these transitions varies across the world.",
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                        "text": "When will population growth come to an end?",
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                        "text": "The UN\u2019s historical estimates and latest projections for the global population are shown in the chart.",
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                        "text": "The UN projects that the global population will peak before the end of the century \u2013 in 2086, at just over 10.4 billion people.",
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                                "text": "What you should know about this data",
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                                "text": "These projections are sensitive to the assumptions made about future fertility and mortality rates worldwide. Find out more from the ",
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                                "url": "https://population.un.org/wpp/DefinitionOfProjectionScenarios/#:~:text=The%20five%20fertility%20scenarios%20are,and%20instant%2Dreplacement%2Dfertility",
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                                        "text": "UN World Population Division",
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                                "text": ".",
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                                "text": "Other sources and scenarios in the UN\u2019s projections can produce a slightly earlier or later peak. Most demographers, however, expect that by the end of the century, the global population will have peaked or slowed so much that population growth will be small.",
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                        "text": "Explore data on Population Growth",
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                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/population-and-demography?facet=none&hideControls=false&Metric=Population&Sex=Both+sexes&Age+group=Total&Projection+Scenario=None&country=CHN~IND~USA~IDN~PAK",
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                        "text": "Research & Writing",
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                        "text": "What would the work look like if each country's area was in proportion to its population?",
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                        "text": "Max Roser",
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                        "text": "The world population has increased rapidly in recent centuries. But this is slowing.",
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                        "text": "Max Roser and Hannah Ritchie",
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                        "text": "More Key articles on Population Growth",
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                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/births-and-deaths",
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                                "text": "How many people die and how many are born each year?",
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                        "text": "Hannah Ritchie and Edouard Mathieu",
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                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-update-2022",
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                                "text": "Five key findings from the 2022 UN Population Prospects",
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        "excerpt": "Explore global and country data on population growth, demography, and how this is changing.",
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        "subtitle": "Explore global and country data on population growth, demography, and how this is changing.",
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