posts

{
    "id": "wp-58555",
    "slug": "tuberculosis",
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        "type": "article",
        "title": "Tuberculosis",
        "authors": [
            "Saloni Dattani",
            "Max Roser"
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        "dateline": "December 21, 2023",
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{
    "id": "wp-58548",
    "slug": "help-us-build-public-good-max-letter",
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        "type": "article",
        "title": "Help us build a public good for the world: a letter from our founder, Max Roser",
        "authors": [
            "Max Roser"
        ],
        "excerpt": "Our small, dedicated team of experts is building more than a website; our ambition is to build a public good for the world. In this letter, we explain why your support is crucial for us to achieve our mission.",
        "dateline": "September 30, 2023",
        "subtitle": "Our small, dedicated team of experts is building more than a website; our ambition is to build a public good for the world. In this letter, we explain why your support is crucial for us to achieve our mission.",
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        "featured-image": "Thumbnail-Donate-5.png"
    },
    "createdAt": "2023-12-20T22:56:56.000Z",
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    "updatedAt": "2023-12-22T16:23:13.000Z",
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{
    "id": "wp-58507",
    "slug": "cardiovascular-diseases",
    "content": {
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        "body": [],
        "type": "article",
        "title": "Cardiovascular Diseases",
        "authors": [
            "Saloni Dattani",
            "Max Roser"
        ],
        "dateline": "December 14, 2023",
        "sidebar-toc": false,
        "featured-image": ""
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    "createdAt": "2023-12-14T13:06:15.000Z",
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{
    "id": "wp-58499",
    "slug": "pandemics",
    "content": {
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        "body": [],
        "type": "article",
        "title": "Pandemics",
        "authors": [
            "Saloni Dattani",
            "Max Roser"
        ],
        "dateline": "December 7, 2023",
        "sidebar-toc": false,
        "featured-image": ""
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    "createdAt": "2023-12-07T13:36:30.000Z",
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    "updatedAt": "2023-12-07T15:49:41.000Z",
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{
    "id": "wp-58486",
    "slug": "state-capacity",
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        "type": "article",
        "title": "State Capacity",
        "authors": [
            "Bastian Herre",
            "Pablo Arriagada",
            "Max Roser"
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        "dateline": "November 30, 2023",
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    "createdAt": "2023-11-28T09:19:26.000Z",
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{
    "id": "wp-58184",
    "slug": "animal-welfare-explorer-block-2",
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "Explore more of our work on Animal Welfare",
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        "type": "article",
        "title": "Animal Welfare Explorer Block",
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        "dateline": "September 26, 2023",
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{
    "id": "wp-58173",
    "slug": "animal-welfare",
    "content": {
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        "body": [],
        "type": "article",
        "title": "Animal Welfare",
        "authors": [
            "Hannah Ritchie",
            "Max Roser"
        ],
        "dateline": "September 26, 2023",
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    "createdAt": "2023-09-26T10:25:51.000Z",
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    "updatedAt": "2023-09-26T09:25:53.000Z",
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{
    "id": "wp-57910",
    "slug": "homicides-redesign",
    "content": {
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        "body": [],
        "type": "article",
        "title": "We published a new topic page on homicides",
        "authors": [
            "Bastian Herre",
            "Fiona Spooner"
        ],
        "excerpt": "Explore data on homicides rates across the world, and how these have changed over time.",
        "dateline": "July 20, 2023",
        "subtitle": "Explore data on homicides rates across the world, and how these have changed over time.",
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        "featured-image": "Homicides.png"
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    "createdAt": "2023-07-20T10:36:58.000Z",
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    "updatedAt": "2023-10-24T09:45:27.000Z",
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{
    "id": "wp-57862",
    "slug": "economic-growth-redesign",
    "content": {
        "toc": [],
        "body": [],
        "type": "article",
        "title": "We published a new topic page on economic growth",
        "authors": [
            "Joe Hasell",
            "Pablo Arriagada"
        ],
        "excerpt": "Explore global data on the history of economic growth, and differences across the world today.",
        "dateline": "July 14, 2023",
        "subtitle": "Explore global data on the history of economic growth, and differences across the world today.",
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    "createdAt": "2023-07-14T08:19:10.000Z",
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    "updatedAt": "2023-10-24T09:44:41.000Z",
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{
    "id": "wp-57830",
    "slug": "population-growth-redesign",
    "content": {
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        "body": [],
        "type": "article",
        "title": "The world has passed \"peak child\"",
        "authors": [
            "Hannah Ritchie",
            "Lucas Rod\u00e9s-Guirao"
        ],
        "excerpt": "Explore global and country data on population growth, demography, and how this is changing.",
        "dateline": "July 11, 2023",
        "subtitle": "Explore global and country data on population growth, demography, and how this is changing.",
        "sidebar-toc": false,
        "featured-image": "World-Population-Growth.png"
    },
    "createdAt": "2023-07-11T10:14:23.000Z",
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    "updatedAt": "2024-02-12T18:05:42.000Z",
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{
    "id": "wp-57818",
    "slug": "waste-management-redesign",
    "content": {
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        "body": [],
        "type": "article",
        "title": "We just redesigned our work on Waste Management",
        "authors": [
            "Hannah Ritchie",
            "Edouard Mathieu"
        ],
        "excerpt": "Explore data visualizations on waste management.",
        "dateline": "February 23, 2023",
        "subtitle": "Explore data visualizations on waste management.",
        "sidebar-toc": false,
        "featured-image": "Waste-Management.png"
    },
    "createdAt": "2023-07-10T18:01:50.000Z",
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    "updatedAt": "2023-07-10T17:33:28.000Z",
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    "publishedAt": "2023-02-23T18:00:00.000Z",
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{
    "id": "wp-57814",
    "slug": "light-at-night-redesign",
    "content": {
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        "body": [],
        "type": "article",
        "title": "We published a redesign of our work on Light at Night",
        "authors": [
            "Max Roser",
            "Hannah Ritchie"
        ],
        "excerpt": "On this page, you can find data, visualizations, and writing about changes in efficiency, price, and access to lighting.",
        "dateline": "February 10, 2023",
        "subtitle": "On this page, you can find data, visualizations, and writing about changes in efficiency, price, and access to lighting.",
        "sidebar-toc": false,
        "featured-image": "Light-at-Night.png"
    },
    "createdAt": "2023-07-10T17:13:34.000Z",
    "published": false,
    "updatedAt": "2023-07-10T17:12:45.000Z",
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    "publishedAt": "2023-02-10T16:58:00.000Z",
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{
    "id": "wp-57811",
    "slug": "food-prices-redesign",
    "content": {
        "toc": [],
        "body": [],
        "type": "article",
        "title": "We published a redesign of our work on Food Prices",
        "authors": [
            "Max Roser",
            "Hannah Ritchie"
        ],
        "excerpt": "On this page, you can find data, visualizations, and writing on global and country-level food prices and expenditures, the affordability of food, and how this has changed over time.",
        "dateline": "January 19, 2023",
        "subtitle": "On this page, you can find data, visualizations, and writing on global and country-level food prices and expenditures, the affordability of food, and how this has changed over time.",
        "sidebar-toc": false,
        "featured-image": "Food-Prices.png"
    },
    "createdAt": "2023-07-10T16:19:54.000Z",
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    "updatedAt": "2023-07-10T16:13:58.000Z",
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    "publishedAt": "2023-01-19T16:15:00.000Z",
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{
    "id": "wp-57808",
    "slug": "military-personnel-spending-redesign",
    "content": {
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        "body": [],
        "type": "article",
        "title": "We redesigned our work on Military Personnel and Spending",
        "authors": [
            "Max Roser",
            "Esteban Ortiz-Ospina",
            "Hannah Ritchie",
            "Edouard Mathieu",
            "Bastian Herre"
        ],
        "excerpt": "Explore global data and visualizations on military personnel and spending on this page.",
        "dateline": "January 13, 2023",
        "subtitle": "Explore global data and visualizations on military personnel and spending on this page.",
        "sidebar-toc": false,
        "featured-image": "military-spending-thumbnail.png"
    },
    "createdAt": "2023-07-10T16:07:46.000Z",
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    "updatedAt": "2023-07-10T15:52:08.000Z",
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    "publishedAt": "2023-01-13T16:06:00.000Z",
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{
    "id": "wp-57804",
    "slug": "tourism-redesign",
    "content": {
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        "body": [],
        "type": "article",
        "title": "We just published a redesign of our work on Tourism",
        "authors": [
            "Bastian Herre",
            "Veronika Samborska",
            "Max Roser"
        ],
        "excerpt": "Tourism has massively increased in recent decades. Explore data and visualizations on the history and current state of tourism across the world on this page.",
        "dateline": "January 9, 2023",
        "subtitle": "Tourism has massively increased in recent decades. Explore data and visualizations on the history and current state of tourism across the world on this page.",
        "sidebar-toc": false,
        "featured-image": "Tourism.png"
    },
    "createdAt": "2023-07-10T15:31:19.000Z",
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    "updatedAt": "2023-07-10T15:05:27.000Z",
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{
    "id": "wp-57799",
    "slug": "agricultural-production-redesign",
    "content": {
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        "type": "article",
        "title": "We just published a redesign of our work on Agricultural Production",
        "authors": [
            "Hannah Ritchie",
            "Pablo Rosado",
            "Max Roser"
        ],
        "excerpt": "Agricultural production is not only fundamental to improving nutrition, but is also the main source of income for many. Explore data and visualizations relating to the topic on this page.",
        "dateline": "January 4, 2023",
        "subtitle": "Agricultural production is not only fundamental to improving nutrition, but is also the main source of income for many. Explore data and visualizations relating to the topic on this page.",
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    "createdAt": "2023-07-10T15:24:18.000Z",
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{
    "id": "wp-57794",
    "slug": "books-redesign",
    "content": {
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        "body": [],
        "type": "article",
        "title": "We just published a redesign of our work on Books",
        "authors": [
            "Max Roser",
            "Hannah Ritchie"
        ],
        "excerpt": "Books and written communication have played a crucial role in the spread of ideas and the development of culture. Explore historical data on manuscript and book production.",
        "dateline": "January 4, 2023",
        "subtitle": "Books and written communication have played a crucial role in the spread of ideas and the development of culture. Explore historical data on manuscript and book production.",
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{
    "id": "wp-57781",
    "slug": "economic-inequality-redesign",
    "content": {
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        "body": [],
        "type": "article",
        "title": "We published a new topic page on economic inequality",
        "authors": [
            "Joe Hasell",
            "Pablo Arriagada"
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        "excerpt": "Explore global data on economic inequality, and how this is changing over time.",
        "dateline": "July 7, 2023",
        "subtitle": "Explore global data on economic inequality, and how this is changing over time.",
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{
    "id": "wp-57770",
    "slug": "economic-inequality",
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                        "text": "THIS PAGE ONLY EXISTS TO GET ECONOMIC INEQUALITY LISTED IN THE BY-TOPIC MENU.",
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                        "text": "The inequality page is now in Google Docs: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1yzOrFd6uWvrAl2oFB3S67oOSbhgL1ffPHxjAqS7i-4w/edit",
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        "type": "article",
        "title": "Economic Inequality",
        "authors": [
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            "Max Roser"
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        "dateline": "July 7, 2023",
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        "featured-image": "economic-inequality-featured-image-1.png"
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    "createdAt": "2023-07-07T08:48:36.000Z",
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{
    "id": "wp-57760",
    "slug": "about-this-data-main-inequality-explorer",
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                        "text": "About this data",
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                        "text": "This data explorer provides a range of inequality indicators measured according to two different definitions of income obtained from different sources.",
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                                "text": "Data from the World Inequality Database relates to inequality before taxes and benefits.",
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                                "text": "Data from the World Bank relates to either income after taxes and benefits or consumption, depending on the country and year.",
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                        "text": "Further information about the definitions and methods behind this data can be found in the article below, where you can also explore and compare a much broader range of indicators from different sources:",
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{
    "id": "wp-57756",
    "slug": "about-this-data-pip-explorers",
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                        "text": "This data explorer provides a range of indicators obtained from the World Bank Poverty and Inequality Platform. Depending on the country and year, the data relates to income measured after taxes and benefits, or consumption, per capita.",
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                        "text": "Further information about the definitions and methods behind this data can be found in the article below, where you can also explore and compare a much broader range of indicators:",
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        "title": "About this data (PIP explorers)",
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{
    "id": "wp-57755",
    "slug": "about-this-data-lis-explorers",
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{
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{
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            "Hannah Ritchie",
            "Edouard Mathieu"
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                        "text": "It can be difficult to define mental illnesses because they are conditions of the mind: they are diagnosed according to people's symptoms and behavior. This means they can be subjective \u2013 they are dependent partly on people\u2019s comfort seeing a doctor or psychiatrist, the training and experiences of healthcare professionals, and other cultural factors.",
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                        "text": "In contrast, the DSM was developed for psychiatrists in the United States, although its usage has expanded worldwide. It is intended to provide standardized guidelines for different psychiatrists who may have different judgments otherwise.{ref}Harrison, J. E., Weber, S., Jakob, R., & Chute, C. G. (2021). ICD-11: An international classification of diseases for the twenty-first century. BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making, 21(S6), 206. ",
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                        "text": "Kupfer, D. J., Regier, D. A., & Kuhl, E. A. (2008). On the road to DSM-V and ICD-11. European Archives of Psychiatry and Clinical Neuroscience, 258(S5), 2\u20136. ",
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                        "text": "Tyrer, P. (2014). A comparison of DSM and ICD classifications of mental disorder. Advances in Psychiatric Treatment, 20(4), 280\u2013285. ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://doi.org/10.1192/apt.bp.113.011296",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "https://doi.org/10.1192/apt.bp.113.011296",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
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                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " {/ref}",
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                    }
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                        "text": "Each of these manuals has been revised several times: the ICD is currently on its eleventh edition (known as ICD-11) as of 2019, while the DSM is currently on its fifth edition (DSM-5) as of 2013.",
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "Both manuals provide criteria healthcare professionals can use to decide whether people have a particular mental illness.\u00a0",
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "These criteria include a description of the symptoms, their severity, and duration. They also explain how to decide between different illnesses with similar symptoms.",
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                        "text": "Both manuals mostly group mental illnesses similarly. For common mental illnesses, their criteria are usually identical or have minor differences, but in some cases, there are major differences.{ref}This paper provides a detailed summary of the similarities and differences between the criteria for mental illnesses in the ICD-11 and DSM-5.",
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                        "spanType": "span-newline"
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                        "text": "First, M. B., Gaebel, W., Maj, M., Stein, D. J., Kogan, C. S., Saunders, J. B., Poznyak, V. B., Gureje, O., Lewis\u2010Fern\u00e1ndez, R., Maercker, A., Brewin, C. R., Cloitre, M., Claudino, A., Pike, K. M., Baird, G., Skuse, D., Krueger, R. B., Briken, P., Burke, J. D., \u2026 Reed, G. M. (2021). An organization\u2010 and category\u2010level comparison of diagnostic requirements for mental disorders in ICD \u201011 and DSM \u20105. World Psychiatry, 20(1), 34\u201351. ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://doi.org/10.1002/wps.20825",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "https://doi.org/10.1002/wps.20825",
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                        "text": " {/ref}",
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                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "How common are mental illnesses?",
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                "level": 2,
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                "left": [
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "In the chart, you can see the estimated prevalence of people who meet the criteria to be diagnosed with each category of mental illness, as they are classified by the ICD manual.",
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                            {
                                "text": "As you can see, anxiety disorders and depressive disorders are more common. It\u2019s estimated that around 3\u20134% of people worldwide have had them in the past year.",
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                                "text": "Bipolar disorder, schizophrenia and eating disorders are less common. For example, it\u2019s estimated that 0.3% of people have schizophrenia worldwide.",
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                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-of-population-with-mental-illnesses",
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "Schizophrenia and other primary psychotic disorders",
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                        "text": "Schizophrenia",
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                                "text": "Schizophrenia is a condition that involves significant problems in perceiving reality, difficulty with memory and attention, and changes in behavior and movement.{ref}Other primary psychotic disorders include schizoaffective disorder, schizotypal disorder, acute and transient psychotic disorder, delusional disorder, symptomatic manifestations of primary psychotic disorders, and others.{/ref}",
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                                "text": "In the chart, you can see the rate of schizophrenia between genders. As the chart shows, around 0.2 to 0.5% of people are estimated to have schizophrenia across countries. Schizophrenia is relatively balanced between men and women, although in many countries it\u2019s estimated to be slightly more common among men than women.",
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                                "text": "To diagnose schizophrenia, the patient must have at least two of the following symptoms for most of the time, lasting at least a month. They must have at least one symptom from a\u2013d.",
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                                        "text": "persistent delusions",
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                                        "text": "persistent hallucinations",
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                                        "text": "disorganized thoughts that may result in incoherent speech",
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                                        "text": "experiences of control or passivity",
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                                        "text": "negative symptoms (such as flattening of emotions, loss of interest or motivation, lack of speech)",
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                                        "text": "disorganized behavior (i.e., behavior that is purposeless, or inappropriate emotional responses)",
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                                "value": [
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                                        "text": "changes in behavior and movement such as catatonic restlessness, posturing, wavy flexibility, negativism, mutism, stupor",
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                                "text": "The symptoms shouldn\u2019t be caused by another medical condition or the use of substances or medication.",
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                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/prevalence-of-schizophrenia-in-males-vs-females ",
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                        "text": "Mood disorders",
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                        "text": "The ICD manual describes two types of mood disorders: depressive disorders, and bipolar or related disorders.",
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "Depressive disorders",
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                                "text": "Depressive disorders involve significant sadness or a loss of interest, along with several other symptoms.",
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                                "text": "But there are several types of depressive disorders, classified by the ICD manual. They are based on the specific symptoms, their severity, and duration.{ref}The different types of depressive disorders described by the ICD manual are: single-episode depressive disorder, recurrent depressive disorder, dysthymic disorder, mixed depressive and anxiety disorder, and others.{/ref}",
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                                "text": "In the chart, you can see the prevalence of depressive disorders in men and women. As the chart shows, it\u2019s estimated that depressive disorders were somewhat more common in women than men in all countries. Around 2\u20138% of women and 1\u20136% of men were estimated to have depressive disorders in the past year, across countries.",
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                                        "text": "Major depression",
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                                "text": "Several types of depressive disorders involve having a major depressive episode, which can be mild, moderate, or severe.",
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                                "text": "To diagnose a major depressive episode, the patient must have had at least five of the symptoms listed below for most of the day, lasting nearly every day for at least 2 weeks.\u00a0",
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                                "text": "At least one of them must be from a\u2013b. The symptoms must also significantly affect their personal life, family, social, education, work, or other areas of their life \u2013\u00a0or only have a limited effect because of significant effort.",
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                                        "text": "Depressed mood (feeling down or sad). In children and adolescents, this may appear as irritability instead.",
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                                        "text": "Less interest or pleasure in activities that the person usually finds enjoyable",
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                                        "text": "Excessive feelings of low self-worth or inappropriate guilt that may be delusional",
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                                        "text": "Feeling hopelessness about the future",
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                                        "text": "Significant disruptions in sleeping",
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                                        "text": "Significant changes in appetite",
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                                        "text": "Changes in behavior and movement (being agitated or slowed down), which can be observed by others",
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                                        "text": "Reduced energy, fatigue or feeling tired after a minimum amount of effort",
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                                "text": "The symptoms shouldn\u2019t be better accounted for by bereavement (the death of someone close), another medical condition, or the use of substances or medication.",
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                                "text": "Unlike major depression, dysthymic disorder involves having milder symptoms for a longer minimum period.\u00a0",
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                                "text": "To diagnose a dysthymic disorder, the patient must have had a persistent depressed mood lasting at least two years, for most of the day, for the majority of days. In children and adolescents, this may appear as irritability instead. The symptoms must also significantly affect their personal life, family, social, education, work, or other areas \u2013\u00a0or only be limited because of significant effort.",
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                                "text": "In addition, they typically have additional symptoms such as:",
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                                "text": "To be diagnosed, there should not have been a two-week period when they had enough symptoms to meet the criteria for a depressive episode, during the first two years of their symptoms. There should also not be any period without symptoms lasting two months or more.\u00a0",
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                                "text": "They should not have a history of manic episodes, mixed episodes, or hypomanic episodes (which would meet the criteria of bipolar or related disorders; see the next section). The symptoms shouldn\u2019t be caused by another medical condition or the use of substances or medications.",
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                                "text": "Bipolar disorder involves two different sets of symptoms. One set is depressive symptoms, while the other involves significantly increased excitement, irritability, and energy. This second set of symptoms is classified as \u201cmanic episodes\u201d, \u201cmixed episodes\u201d, or \u201chypomanic episodes or symptoms\u201d.{ref}In mixed episodes, people either have a mix of depressive and manic symptoms together or rapidly alternate between the different sets of symptoms. In hypomanic episodes, people have similar symptoms to those in a manic episode, but to a milder degree.{/ref}",
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                                "text": "In the chart, you can see the prevalence of bipolar disorder in different countries. Overall, around 0.2\u20131.8% of people are estimated to have bipolar disorder. Bipolar disorder is relatively balanced between men and women, although in many countries it\u2019s estimated to be slightly more common among women than men.",
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                                "text": "To diagnose someone with a manic episode, the patient must have the following symptoms for most of the day, nearly every day, for at least a week{ref}Unless that period is shortened by a treatment.{/ref}.",
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                                        "text": "An extreme mood of euphoria, irritability, or a feeling of \u2018expansiveness\u2019.{ref}Expansiveness is when people behave brashly or lavishly, have an attitude of superiority or grandiosity, or dress and act flamboyantly.{/ref}",
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                                        "text": "Significantly increased activity or energy compared to their usual behavior.",
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                                "text": "Along with these, their behavior must include several of the following unusual symptoms.",
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                                        "text": "Racing thoughts or ideas, which may be illogical",
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                                        "text": "Being easily distracted",
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                                "text": "Their symptoms should not be due to another medical condition or the use of a substance or medication, and they shouldn\u2019t fill the requirements for a mixed episode.\u00a0",
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                                "text": "To be diagnosed, their symptoms must also significantly affect their personal life, family, social, education, work, or other areas of their life; or require intensive treatment to prevent them from harming themselves or others; or are accompanied by delusions or hallucinations.",
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                                "text": "In the chart, you can see the estimated share of people who would meet the criteria for anxiety disorders in men and women. You can see that anxiety disorders are estimated to be more common in women than men in all countries. Around 2\u201311% of women and 2\u20137% of men were estimated to have anxiety disorders in the past year, across countries.",
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                                "text": "In the chart, you can see the estimated share of people who would meet the criteria for eating disorders, in men and women. Eating disorders are estimated to be more common among women (0.06\u20131.5%) than men (0.03\u20130.75%).",
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                                "text": "Persistently perceiving the threat as being heightened. For example, being hypervigilant or excessively startled by stimuli such as unexpected noises. They constantly guard themselves against danger and feel that they, or others close to them, are under immediate threat. They might develop new behaviors that aim to ensure their safety.",
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                        "text": "Personality disorders were previously defined as a group of different disorders that were all related to people\u2019s behavior, perception, and social functioning. But now, they are all classified together by the ICD manual.",
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                        "text": "To be diagnosed with personality disorders, the patient must have persistent problems about themselves (their identity, self-worth, the accuracy of their self-perception, or self-goals) or their relationships (such as maintaining close and satisfying relationships, understanding other people\u2019s perspectives, and managing conflict in relationships). These problems are visible in patterns of thoughts, emotions, and behaviors that are rigid or poorly regulated.",
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                        "text": "They should not be better accounted for by another mental disorder and should not be the result of another medical condition or the use of substances or medication. They should also not be diagnosed if the patterns are typical during that period of development (such as problems establishing a self-identity during adolescence) or if they can be explained by social or cultural factors.",
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                        "text": "Our understanding of mental illnesses continues to develop over time. They are a range of conditions that significantly affect people\u2019s lives and are reflected in their behavior, thoughts, or relationships with others.\u00a0",
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                        "text": "To be diagnosed with a mental illness, people need to meet various symptom requirements. Healthcare professionals need to exclude other conditions that can cause the symptoms and the use of substances or medications.",
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                                "children": [
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                                        "text": "Keep reading on Our World in Data:",
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        "type": "article",
        "title": "How are mental illnesses defined?",
        "authors": [
            "Saloni Dattani"
        ],
        "excerpt": "Mental illnesses are a range of conditions that significantly affect people\u2019s lives. What are their symptoms?",
        "dateline": "May 26, 2023",
        "subtitle": "Mental illnesses are a range of conditions that significantly affect people\u2019s lives. What are their symptoms?",
        "sidebar-toc": false,
        "featured-image": "Mental-illnesses-defined-thumbnail.png"
    },
    "createdAt": "2023-05-26T15:14:47.000Z",
    "published": false,
    "updatedAt": "2023-07-10T16:27:34.000Z",
    "revisionId": null,
    "publishedAt": "2023-05-26T18:47:36.000Z",
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    "slug": "how-do-researchers-study-the-prevalence-of-mental-illnesses",
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                    {
                        "text": "In many countries, many people with mental illnesses go undiagnosed, meaning mental health is given less attention and support than it deserves. Even for those diagnosed, treatment can be of poor quality, if they receive it at all.{ref}Alonso, J., Liu, Z., Evans\u2010Lacko, S., Sadikova, E., Sampson, N., Chatterji, S., ... & WHO World Mental Health Survey Collaborators. (2018). Treatment gap for anxiety disorders is global: Results of the World Mental Health Surveys in 21 countries. Depression and anxiety, 35(3), 195-208. ",
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                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://doi.org/10.1002/da.22711",
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                                "text": "https://doi.org/10.1002/da.22711",
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                        "text": " {/ref}",
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                        "text": "To reduce the burden of mental illnesses, the world needs reliable data, which includes the number of people that face mental illnesses, how and when they occur, and the effectiveness of treatments.",
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                        "text": "How are mental illnesses defined?",
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                        "text": "Defining mental illnesses is complex. They are diagnosed based on people\u2019s psychological symptoms and behavior rather than biomarkers, brain scans, or blood tests. This makes them more subjective \u2013 they are dependent on whether people share their symptoms and the way doctors diagnose them.",
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                        "text": "Mental illnesses are formally defined according to the International Classification of Diseases (ICD) and the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM). The ICD is used internationally by healthcare professionals, while the DSM is primarily used by psychiatrists in the United States.{ref}Kupfer, D. J., Regier, D. A., & Kuhl, E. A. (2008). On the road to DSM-V and ICD-11. European Archives of Psychiatry and Clinical Neuroscience, 258(S5), 2\u20136. ",
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                    },
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                        "url": "https://doi.org/10.1007/s00406-008-5002-6",
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                                "text": "https://doi.org/10.1007/s00406-008-5002-6",
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                        "text": " {/ref}",
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                        "text": "These manuals explain how to diagnose mental illnesses by observing and asking about people\u2019s symptoms and behavior, and the context of their symptoms \u2013 for example, symptoms that appeared because of drug use or other medical conditions don\u2019t qualify as mental illnesses.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Based on these definitions, healthcare professionals can make diagnoses, which can be used for healthcare, treatment, and national statistics.",
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Over time, the definitions of particular mental illnesses have changed. The DSM has been revised 5 times since it was first developed in 1952, while the ICD has been revised 11 times since 1900.{ref}American Psychiatric Association. (2022). DSM History. ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://www.psychiatry.org/psychiatrists/practice/dsm/about-dsm/history-of-the-dsm",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "https://www.psychiatry.org/psychiatrists/practice/dsm/about-dsm/history-of-the-dsm",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "spanType": "span-newline"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": "Hirsch, J. A., Nicola, G., McGinty, G., Liu, R. W., Barr, R. M., Chittle, M. D., & Manchikanti, L. (2016). ICD-10: History and Context. AJNR. American Journal of Neuroradiology, 37(4), 596\u2013599. ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://doi.org/10.3174/ajnr.A4696",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "https://doi.org/10.3174/ajnr.A4696",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " {/ref} They will continue to be revised in the future, but updates have become less frequent.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                ],
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
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                        "text": "Their changes are partly due to a better understanding and measurement of mental illnesses. They have also changed as a result of cultural and legal factors. There used to be larger differences in the criteria for diagnosing mental illnesses between the ICD and the DSM, but the two manuals are now more similar due to collaboration between their developers.{ref}This paper provides a detailed summary of the similarities and differences between the criteria for mental illnesses in the ICD-11 and DSM-5.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "spanType": "span-newline"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": "First, M. B., Gaebel, W., Maj, M., Stein, D. J., Kogan, C. S., Saunders, J. B., Poznyak, V. B., Gureje, O., Lewis\u2010Fern\u00e1ndez, R., Maercker, A., Brewin, C. R., Cloitre, M., Claudino, A., Pike, K. M., Baird, G., Skuse, D., Krueger, R. B., Briken, P., Burke, J. D., \u2026 Reed, G. M. (2021). An organization\u2010 and category\u2010level comparison of diagnostic requirements for mental disorders in ICD \u201011 and DSM \u20105. World Psychiatry, 20(1), 34\u201351. ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://doi.org/10.1002/wps.20825",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "https://doi.org/10.1002/wps.20825",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "spanType": "span-newline"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": "Harrison, J. E., Weber, S., Jakob, R., & Chute, C. G. (2021). ICD-11: An international classification of diseases for the twenty-first century. BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making, 21(S6), 206. ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://doi.org/10.1186/s12911-021-01534-6",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "https://doi.org/10.1186/s12911-021-01534-6",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "spanType": "span-newline"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": "Tyrer, P. (2014). A comparison of DSM and ICD classifications of mental disorder. Advances in Psychiatric Treatment, 20(4), 280\u2013285. ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://doi.org/10.1192/apt.bp.113.011296",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "https://doi.org/10.1192/apt.bp.113.011296",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " {/ref}",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
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            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "Mental health data based on diagnoses",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "type": "heading",
                "level": 2,
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "The process of diagnosing a mental illness usually starts with the patient consulting a healthcare professional.{ref}People can also be diagnosed through other routes. For example, in some countries, there are also screening programs to identify people who may have mental health conditions and refer them to specialists. Children and adolescents can be referred to healthcare professionals by carers.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "spanType": "span-newline"
                    },
                    {
                        "spanType": "span-newline"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": "In some countries, people can also be diagnosed and committed to mental hospitals involuntarily if they are considered to pose a danger to others. This was more common in countries like the United States before the 1960s, but since then, these laws have been reformed in many countries.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "See also: Testa, M., & West, S. G. (2010). Civil commitment in the United States. Psychiatry (Edgmont (Pa.: Township)), 7(10), 30\u201340.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "spanType": "span-newline"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": "Zhang, S., Mellsop, G., Brink, J., & Wang, X. (2015). Involuntary admission and treatment of patients with mental disorder. Neuroscience Bulletin, 31(1), 99\u2013112. ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://doi.org/10.1007/s12264-014-1493-5",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "https://doi.org/10.1007/s12264-014-1493-5",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "spanType": "span-newline"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": "Appelbaum, P. S. (1997). Almost a revolution: an international perspective on the law of involuntary commitment. Journal of the American Academy of Psychiatry and the Law Online, 25(2), 135-147.{/ref} This can be a doctor in a clinic or general hospital, a psychiatrist, or another mental health specialist.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Health professionals use official medical guidance and professional judgment to decide whether to diagnose a patient with a condition.",
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Data on these diagnoses are collected from hospitals in many countries, but this may not include clinic visits. The data can include people\u2019s age and sex, their reason for admission, other diagnoses, and treatments given during their visit.{ref} Otero Varela, L., Doktorchik, C., Wiebe, N., Quan, H., & Eastwood, C. (2021). Exploring the differences in ICD and hospital morbidity data collection features across countries: An international survey. BMC Health Services Research, 21(1), 308. ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://doi.org/10.1186/s12913-021-06302-w",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "https://doi.org/10.1186/s12913-021-06302-w",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Varela, L. O., Knudsen, S., Carpendale, S., Eastwood, C., & Quan, H. (2019, October). Comparing ICD-Data Across Countries: A Case for Visualization?. In 2019 IEEE Workshop on Visual Analytics in Healthcare (VAHC) (pp. 60-61). IEEE. {/ref}",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
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            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "What are the strengths and limitations of diagnosis data?",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "type": "heading",
                "level": 2,
                "parseErrors": []
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            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "Strengths of data based on diagnosis",
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                "level": 3,
                "parseErrors": []
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Official data from diagnoses of mental illnesses have two major strengths.",
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                ],
                "parseErrors": []
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "First, the diagnoses come from healthcare professionals with training and experience in recognizing mental illnesses.\u00a0",
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                ],
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "They can use their knowledge to ask people more questions about their symptoms and understand their context before making a diagnosis. They can also perform additional medical tests to rule out other conditions.",
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Second, data on diagnoses can tell us about the number of people who seek out mental health treatment from public hospitals and clinics. This can usually be linked to data on which treatments they were prescribed and for how long.{ref}In some countries, there are also national screening programs to diagnose patients with both physical and mental illnesses.{/ref}",
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "This can be very useful for countries to understand the resources used to treat mental illnesses.",
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            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "Limitations of data based on diagnosis",
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                ],
                "type": "heading",
                "level": 3,
                "parseErrors": []
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Data on diagnoses of mental illnesses also has limitations.",
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "One problem is that many people do not reach out to healthcare professionals about their health conditions. This might be because they lack awareness of mental illnesses or there is a lack of healthcare for these conditions in their country. They may also feel uncomfortable about sharing their symptoms with healthcare professionals.",
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                "parseErrors": []
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Another problem is that the diagnoses may not be made consistently. Doctors can have different levels of training and experience in recognizing and diagnosing mental illnesses. This can be a problem when comparing diagnosis rates between countries.",
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "A third problem is that national data on diagnosis is often collected from a limited number of sources. Data from private hospitals and clinics is usually not included. In some countries, mental health data is collected from hospitals but not clinics.{ref}Baxter, A. J., Patton, G., Scott, K. M., Degenhardt, L., & Whiteford, H. A. (2013). Global Epidemiology of Mental Disorders: What Are We Missing? PLoS ONE, 8(6), e65514. ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0065514",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0065514",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                    },
                    {
                        "text": " {/ref}",
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Some countries also use data from other sources. For example, the data might come from health insurance claims\u2014which include private healthcare\u2014or from other databases connected to many healthcare clinics across the country.",
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "The final problem is that countries may use different definitions to diagnose patients. Some countries use modified versions of the ICD manual to collect their data, depending on their cultural context and needs.{ref}Brhlikova, P., Pollock, A. M., & Manners, R. (2011). Global Burden of Disease estimates of depression \u2013 how reliable is the epidemiological evidence? Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine, 104(1), 25\u201334. ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://doi.org/10.1258/jrsm.2010.100080",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "https://doi.org/10.1258/jrsm.2010.100080",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " {/ref}",
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "These differences mean that comparing data between countries using data on diagnoses can be difficult.",
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            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "Mental health data based on surveys",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                ],
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                "level": 2,
                "parseErrors": []
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                "left": [
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Aside from the formal diagnoses, mental illnesses can be measured using surveys and screening questionnaires.",
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "These tend to ask people about symptoms similar to those in diagnostic manuals, but they can be used more easily and widely because the data does not need to be collected by a healthcare professional.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "These surveys can be conducted in different ways: over the phone, online, or in-person while anonymized.{ref}In-person surveys are usually anonymized for sensitive questions such as those on mental health. In this case, the person may be given a laptop to answer the questions while the interviewer cannot see their answers.{/ref}",
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "During the surveys, trained professionals ask people in the general population whether they have experienced symptoms of mental illnesses. They also ask about the age when people first experienced them, how long they lasted, and how severe the symptoms were.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "People may be asked about symptoms they have currently, or have had recently, or in their lifetime so far.",
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Some symptoms of mental illnesses may be common in the population. This chart shows data from a US survey called the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. It was a large-scale, in-person survey of people in the general population.{ref}Tomitaka, S., Kawasaki, Y., Ide, K., Akutagawa, M., Yamada, H., Ono, Y., & Furukawa, T. A. (2018). Distributional patterns of item responses and total scores on the PHQ-9 in the general population: Data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. BMC Psychiatry, 18(1), 108. ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://doi.org/10.1186/s12888-018-1696-9",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "https://doi.org/10.1186/s12888-018-1696-9",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": " {/ref}",
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "As you can see, around a fifth of the US population says they have had a depressed mood for several days in the past two weeks.",
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "But having one or a few symptoms does not necessarily mean that someone can be diagnosed with depression. Instead, researchers look at the combination of symptoms that people report. They will set a threshold for the number of symptoms someone must have before they are considered to have the condition.",
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                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "To diagnose someone with major depression, for example, the ICD and DSM criteria require them to have had a depressed mood or loss of interest for much of the day, nearly every day, for at least two weeks, along with several other symptoms.",
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                "right": [
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                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/frequency-depressive-symptoms-us ",
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            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "What are the strengths and limitations of survey data?",
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                    }
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                "parseErrors": []
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            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "Strengths of survey data",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                "left": [
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Survey data on mental health has two major strengths.",
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "First, it involves structured interviews \u2013\u00a0people are asked a consistent set of questions regardless of their interviewer. This helps to ensure the data is more comparable between interviewers and across time.{ref}Mueller, A. E., & Segal, D. L. (2014). Structured versus semistructured versus unstructured interviews. The encyclopedia of clinical psychology, 1-7. ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118625392.wbecp069",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118625392.wbecp069",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "\u00a0 {/ref}",
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                        ],
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                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Second, surveys include a much wider range of people in the population, including those who would not seek treatment due to a lack of awareness, costs, or other concerns.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                        ],
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                        "type": "text",
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                            {
                                "text": "This can help to understand the prevalence of mental illnesses in the general population, including people never diagnosed by a healthcare professional. This can help us understand what share of people seek treatment.\u00a0",
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "One example is the World Mental Health surveys: these were large-scale surveys of mental illnesses in the general population in 21 countries of different income levels.{ref}Kessler, R. C., Green, J. G., Gruber, M. J., Sampson, N. A., Bromet, E., Cuitan, M., ... & Zaslavsky, A. M. (2010). Screening for serious mental illness in the general population with the K6 screening scale: results from the WHO World Mental Health (WMH) survey initiative. International journal of methods in psychiatric research, 19(S1), 4-22. ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://doi.org/10.1002/mpr.310",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "https://doi.org/10.1002/mpr.310",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "\u00a0 {/ref}",
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                        ],
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                    },
                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Based on structured interviews, the authors found that around 1 in 10 people met the criteria for an anxiety disorder in the past year across countries surveyed.{ref}Alonso, J., Liu, Z., Evans-Lacko, S., Sadikova, E., Sampson, N., Chatterji, S., Abdulmalik, J., Aguilar-Gaxiola, S., Al-Hamzawi, A., Andrade, L. H., Bruffaerts, R., Cardoso, G., Cia, A., Florescu, S., de Girolamo, G., Gureje, O., Haro, J. M., He, Y., de Jonge, P., \u2026 the WHO World Mental Health Survey Collaborators. (2018). Treatment gap for anxiety disorders is global: Results of the World Mental Health Surveys in 21 countries. Depression and Anxiety, 35(3), 195\u2013208. ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://doi.org/10.1002/da.22711",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "https://doi.org/10.1002/da.22711",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": " {/ref}\u00a0",
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                            }
                        ],
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "In the chart, you can see the share of those who met the criteria who also said they had received treatment. Only around 36% with anxiety disorders received any treatment in high-income countries, while an even lower share \u2013 only 13% \u2013\u00a0received it in lower-middle-income countries.{ref}Potentially adequate treatment was defined by the authors as receiving psychotherapy, medication, or complementary alternative medicine.{/ref}",
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                        ],
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Third, surveys can tell us about milder symptoms that may be common in the population. This can help to see if a condition lies on a spectrum \u2013\u00a0where everyone has the symptoms to different degrees \u2013\u00a0or if it affects a separate share of people.",
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                "right": [
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-of-people-with-anxiety-disorders-who-received-treatment ",
                        "type": "chart",
                        "parseErrors": []
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "Limitations of survey data",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "type": "heading",
                "level": 3,
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "left": [
                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "There are also several limitations of survey data to keep in mind.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "parseErrors": []
                    },
                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "One is that people may not share their symptoms in surveys, as they may not feel comfortable sharing them with researchers. Along with this, people\u2019s comfort in sharing mental health symptoms may vary between countries and over time.{ref}Gaia, A. (2020). Social Desirability Bias and Sensitive Questions in Surveys. In SAGE Research Methods Foundations. SAGE Publications Ltd. ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://doi.org/10.4135/9781526421036928979",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "https://doi.org/10.4135/9781526421036928979",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "spanType": "span-newline"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "Krosnick, J. A. (1999). Maximizing questionnaire quality. Measures of Political Attitudes, 2, 37\u201358.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "spanType": "span-newline"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "Shoemaker, P. J. (2002). Item Nonresponse: Distinguishing between don\u2019t Know and Refuse. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, 14(2), 193\u2013201. ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://doi.org/10.1093/ijpor/14.2.193",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "https://doi.org/10.1093/ijpor/14.2.193",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": " {/ref}",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "parseErrors": []
                    },
                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Another limitation is that people may not remember their symptoms, especially when they are asked to recall symptoms in their lifetime so far. This can be challenging for older people whose symptoms may have occurred decades ago.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "parseErrors": []
                    },
                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "This chart shows data from a study where the same people were interviewed several times about depression in their lifetimes so far.{ref}Takayanagi, Y., Spira, A. P., Roth, K. B., Gallo, J. J., Eaton, W. W., & Mojtabai, R. (2014). Accuracy of Reports of Lifetime Mental and Physical Disorders: Results From the Baltimore Epidemiological Catchment Area Study. JAMA Psychiatry, 71(3), 273. ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://doi.org/10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2013.3579",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "https://doi.org/10.1001/jamapsychiatry.2013.3579",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": " {/ref} Around two-thirds of people who had described episodes of depression did not recall them in subsequent interviews.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
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                    }
                ],
                "type": "sticky-right",
                "right": [
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                        "alt": "",
                        "size": "wide",
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                        "filename": "Lifetime-depression-recall-bias.png",
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "A third limitation is that survey data does not usually exclude other diagnoses. When people visit a doctor for a diagnosis, the doctor may ask them about other existing conditions and medications they are taking, and test them for other medical conditions which could also cause their symptoms. This is not usually performed in surveys.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "It can also be difficult to compare people\u2019s responses in surveys, because people may interpret the questions differently. This can make it difficult to compare people from different backgrounds, languages, and countries.{ref}Putnick, D. L., & Bornstein, M. H. (2016). Measurement invariance conventions and reporting: The state of the art and future directions for psychological research. Developmental Review, 41, 71\u201390. ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dr.2016.06.004",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dr.2016.06.004",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " {/ref}",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Another consideration is who is included in surveys. Some include people from a wide range of backgrounds in the general population, while others only include particular groups like urban residents or university students.",
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                ],
                "parseErrors": []
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "This can be a big problem for mental health conditions that are less common, such as schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. If only a few people in the study had a condition, then it can be difficult to estimate the precise share of the total population with it.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "It\u2019s also important to know that surveys of the general population usually do not include people who are institutionalized in hospitals or prisons, who may have more severe physical and mental health conditions.{ref}Binswanger, I. A., Krueger, P. M., & Steiner, J. F. (2009). Prevalence of chronic medical conditions among jail and prison inmates in the USA compared with the general population. Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health, 63(11), 912\u2013919. ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://doi.org/10.1136/jech.2009.090662",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "https://doi.org/10.1136/jech.2009.090662",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Peen, J., Schoevers, R. A., Beekman, A. T., & Dekker, J. (2010). The current status of urban-rural differences in psychiatric disorders. Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica, 121(2), 84\u201393. ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0447.2009.01438.x",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0447.2009.01438.x",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Rehm, J., Kilian, C., Rovira, P., Shield, K. D., & Manthey, J. (2021). The elusiveness of representativeness in general population surveys for alcohol. Drug and Alcohol Review, 40(2), 161\u2013165. ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://doi.org/10.1111/dar.13148",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "https://doi.org/10.1111/dar.13148",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " {/ref}",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                ],
                "parseErrors": []
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            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "How much data on mental health is available around the world?",
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                    }
                ],
                "type": "heading",
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                "parseErrors": []
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                "left": [
                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Data on mental health varies in two ways: the amount of data on each mental illness and the amount of data from each country.",
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                        ],
                        "parseErrors": []
                    },
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "First, there is much more data available on some mental illnesses than others.\u00a0",
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "You can see this in the chart. It shows the number of countries with primary data on the prevalence of each mental illness in the general population. The studies were used by the IHME\u2019s Global Burden of Disease study to estimate the prevalence of mental illnesses worldwide.{ref}Vos, T., Lim, S. S., Abbafati, C., Abbas, K. M., Abbasi, M., Abbasifard, M., Abbasi-Kangevari, M., Abbastabar, H., Abd-Allah, F., Abdelalim, A., Abdollahi, M., Abdollahpour, I., Abolhassani, H., Aboyans, V., Abrams, E. M., Abreu, L. G., Abrigo, M. R. M., Abu-Raddad, L. J., Abushouk, A. I., \u2026 Murray, C. J. L. (2020). Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990\u20132019: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The Lancet, 396(10258), 1204\u20131222. ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30925-9/fulltext",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30925-9/fulltext",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": " {/ref}",
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                            }
                        ],
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                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "As you can see, data on some mental illnesses such as attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, cannabis use disorder, and major depressive disorder came from a large number of countries.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                        ],
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "However, data on others, such as bipolar disorder, autism spectrum disorders, and anorexia nervosa, came from fewer than 40 countries. For personality disorders, data came from only two countries.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "parseErrors": []
                    }
                ],
                "type": "sticky-right",
                "right": [
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/number-of-countries-with-primary-data-on-prevalence-of-mental-illnesses-in-the-global-burden-of-disease-study ",
                        "type": "chart",
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                "left": [
                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Second, there is much more data available from some world regions than others.",
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                            }
                        ],
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                    },
                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "In the left-hand chart, you can see the share of the population of world regions that had any data collected on the prevalence of major depression between 1980 and 2008.\u00a0",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "This comes from an older study published in 2013, and more data has been collected since then, which has helped improve estimates made by the Global Burden of Disease study.{ref}Baxter, A. J., Patton, G., Scott, K. M., Degenhardt, L., & Whiteford, H. A. (2013). Global Epidemiology of Mental Disorders: What Are We Missing? PLoS ONE, 8(6), e65514. ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0065514",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0065514",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": " {/ref}\u00a0",
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                        ],
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                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "In Australasia and North America, there was data relating to all of the age demographics in the population. But in regions such as Eastern Europe and Southeast Asia, less than 25% of the population was covered.\u00a0",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "parseErrors": []
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                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "In several regions, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, Central Asia, and South America, there was almost no underlying data available.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
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                    }
                ],
                "type": "sticky-right",
                "right": [
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/adult-population-covered-in-primary-data-on-the-prevalence-of-major-depression ",
                        "type": "chart",
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                ],
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            {
                "left": [
                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "What about other mental illnesses apart from depression?\u00a0",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "parseErrors": []
                    },
                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "In the chart, you can see the population that was covered in data on other common mental illnesses.\u00a0",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "parseErrors": []
                    },
                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "As you can see, there was more data available on anxiety disorders and major depression than on schizophrenia and bipolar disorder.\u00a0",
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                            }
                        ],
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                    },
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "You can click \u2018Change country\u2019 to see how this varies between world regions.",
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                            }
                        ],
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                ],
                "type": "sticky-right",
                "right": [
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/adult-population-covered-in-primary-data-on-the-prevalence-of-mental-illnesses ",
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            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "How do researchers extrapolate this data to make comparable estimates?",
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                    }
                ],
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                "parseErrors": []
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Researchers can try to make comparable estimates of mental health using this underlying data and statistical methods.{ref}Mathers, C., Hogan, D., & Stevens, G. (2019). Global health estimates: modelling and predicting health outcomes. The Palgrave handbook of global health data methods for policy and practice, 403-424. ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1057/978-1-137-54984-6_21",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1057/978-1-137-54984-6_21",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Whiteford, H. A., Degenhardt, L., Rehm, J., Baxter, A. J., Ferrari, A. J., Erskine, H. E., ... & Vos, T. (2013). Global burden of disease attributable to mental and substance use disorders: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. The Lancet, 382(9904), 1575-1586. ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(13)61611-6",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736(13)61611-6",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Enders, C. K. (2022). Applied missing data analysis. Guilford Publications.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Rehm, J., & Shield, K. D. (2019). Global burden of disease and the impact of mental and addictive disorders. Current psychiatry reports, 21, 1-7. ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://doi.org/10.1007/s11920-019-0997-0",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "https://doi.org/10.1007/s11920-019-0997-0",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                        "spanType": "span-link"
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                        "text": "Vos, T., Lim, S. S., Abbafati, C., Abbas, K. M., Abbasi, M., Abbasifard, M., Abbasi-Kangevari, M., Abbastabar, H., Abd-Allah, F., Abdelalim, A., Abdollahi, M., Abdollahpour, I., Abolhassani, H., Aboyans, V., Abrams, E. M., Abreu, L. G., Abrigo, M. R. M., Abu-Raddad, L. J., Abushouk, A. I., \u2026 Murray, C. J. L. (2020). Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990\u20132019: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The Lancet, 396(10258), 1204\u20131222. ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                    {
                        "url": "https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30925-9",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30925-9",
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                        "text": " {/ref}",
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "These methods incorporate the available data on people\u2019s mental health, their demographics, and the level of diagnosis and testing. Then they extrapolate the results to other countries, where data has not been collected. This can be based on demographics such as age and sex, other risk factors, responses to other large-scale representative mental health surveys.{ref}For major depressive disorder, for example, the IHME uses available data on the age structure of the population; risk factors such as war mortality, intimate partner violence, and childhood sexual violence; as well as responses to the Gallup\u2019s survey on negative experiences around the world. You can learn more in the Appendix of the Global Burden of Disease Study, which is available here.",
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                        "text": "Vos, T., Lim, S. S., Abbafati, C., Abbas, K. M., Abbasi, M., Abbasifard, M., Abbasi-Kangevari, M., Abbastabar, H., Abd-Allah, F., Abdelalim, A., Abdollahi, M., Abdollahpour, I., Abolhassani, H., Aboyans, V., Abrams, E. M., Abreu, L. G., Abrigo, M. R. M., Abu-Raddad, L. J., Abushouk, A. I., \u2026 Murray, C. J. L. (2020). Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990\u20132019: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The Lancet, 396(10258), 1204\u20131222. ",
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                    {
                        "url": "https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30925-9/fulltext#supplementaryMaterial",
                        "children": [
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                                "text": "https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30925-9/fulltext#supplementaryMaterial",
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                        "text": " {/ref}",
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "They try to adjust for the fact that the underlying data was collected from different sources (diagnoses or surveys), during different periods, and from different groups of people.\u00a0",
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                ],
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "However, they come with a range of uncertainty. This is because they rely on assumptions about how the data was collected, and why some demographics and countries lacked data on the prevalence of mental illnesses.",
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                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "This is especially true for some illnesses \u2013\u00a0such as eating disorders and bipolar disorder \u2013 and some world regions \u2013\u00a0including much of Asia, South America and Africa; where primary data is lacking.",
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            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "Data on global mental health is limited \u2013 but nevertheless gives us important insights",
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                "level": 2,
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                        "text": "Data on global mental health has two main limitations.\u00a0",
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
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                        "text": "First, our understanding of global mental health depends on people\u2019s willingness to share their symptoms, and contact healthcare professionals to receive a diagnosis and treatment. Because of this, many people remain undiagnosed and lack support and treatment.",
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                        "text": "Another major limitation is that data is lacking in many countries. It is often available only for some age groups, and is collected by separate one-off studies at infrequent intervals. There is much less data available for some illnesses than others.",
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "For countries that lack data, the prevalence of mental illnesses is estimated from other similar countries with data, but this leads to large uncertainties.",
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "Despite these limitations, the available data does give us important insights:",
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                        "text": "Importantly it shows that mental illnesses are not uncommon. For example, the World Mental Health surveys estimated that one-in-ten people met the criteria for anxiety disorders in the past year, on average, across countries.{ref}Alonso, J., Liu, Z., Evans-Lacko, S., Sadikova, E., Sampson, N., Chatterji, S., Abdulmalik, J., Aguilar-Gaxiola, S., Al-Hamzawi, A., Andrade, L. H., Bruffaerts, R., Cardoso, G., Cia, A., Florescu, S., de Girolamo, G., Gureje, O., Haro, J. M., He, Y., de Jonge, P., \u2026 the WHO World Mental Health Survey Collaborators. (2018). Treatment gap for anxiety disorders is global: Results of the World Mental Health Surveys in 21 countries. Depression and Anxiety, 35(3), 195\u2013208. ",
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                    {
                        "url": "https://doi.org/10.1002/da.22711",
                        "children": [
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                                "text": "https://doi.org/10.1002/da.22711",
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                        "text": " {/ref}",
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                        "text": "Global data also tells us that mental illnesses have a large treatment gap, especially in poorer countries. For example, while around one-in-three with anxiety disorders received any treatment in high-income countries, less than one-in-eight did in lower-middle-income countries.",
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                        "text": "Mental illnesses are a major part of the global health burden and remain untreated for many people. To address this, countries need more data on these conditions for a wide range of demographics, and long-term data to understand how they develop, and how effective the treatments are.",
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                        "children": [
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                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "Keep reading on Our World in Data:",
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                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-bold"
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                        "children": [
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                                "text": "Acknowledgements:",
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                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-bold"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " I would like to thank Edouard Mathieu, Hannah Ritchie and Max Roser for their helpful suggestions to improve this article.",
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                ],
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        ],
        "type": "article",
        "title": "How do researchers study the prevalence of mental illnesses?",
        "authors": [
            "Saloni Dattani"
        ],
        "excerpt": "Global data on mental health is essential to understand the scale and patterns of these illnesses, and how to reduce them. How do researchers collect this data, and how reliable is it?",
        "dateline": "May 26, 2023",
        "subtitle": "Global data on mental health is essential to understand the scale and patterns of these illnesses, and how to reduce them. How do researchers collect this data, and how reliable is it?",
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{
    "id": "wp-56984",
    "slug": "influenza-launch",
    "content": {
        "toc": [],
        "body": [],
        "type": "article",
        "title": "We published a new topic page on Influenza",
        "authors": [
            "Saloni Dattani",
            "Fiona Spooner"
        ],
        "excerpt": "Explore global data on influenza cases, deaths, and vaccinations.",
        "dateline": "May 18, 2023",
        "subtitle": "Explore global data on influenza cases, deaths, and vaccinations.",
        "sidebar-toc": false,
        "featured-image": "flu-topic-page-thumbnail.png"
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    "createdAt": "2023-05-17T09:16:57.000Z",
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{
    "id": "wp-56935",
    "slug": "lgbt-rights",
    "content": {
        "toc": [],
        "body": [
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "This page is now maintained in Google Docs: ",
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                    },
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                        "url": "https://owid.cloud/admin/gdocs/1RvMWl3OpP6zrygM49jcvI6SotoWWq5er14gLBnPLxUg/preview",
                        "children": [
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                                "text": "https://owid.cloud/admin/gdocs/1RvMWl3OpP6zrygM49jcvI6SotoWWq5er14gLBnPLxUg/preview",
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        "type": "article",
        "title": "LGBT+ Rights",
        "authors": [
            "Bastian Herre",
            "Pablo Arriagada",
            "Max Roser"
        ],
        "excerpt": "How has the protection of LGBT+ rights changed over time? How does it differ across countries? Explore global data on LGBT+ rights.",
        "dateline": "May 12, 2023",
        "subtitle": "How has the protection of LGBT+ rights changed over time? How does it differ across countries? Explore global data on LGBT+ rights.",
        "sidebar-toc": false,
        "featured-image": "LGBT-Rights.png"
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    "createdAt": "2023-05-12T14:00:32.000Z",
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{
    "id": "wp-56926",
    "slug": "women-rights",
    "content": {
        "toc": [],
        "body": [
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "This page is now maintained in Google Docs: https://owid.cloud/admin/gdocs/195wtinOB2zsiGevmvUfAGPZv4NrG4jY_vpib49e5gt4/preview",
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        ],
        "type": "article",
        "title": "Women's Rights",
        "authors": [
            "Bastian Herre",
            "Pablo Arriagada",
            "Esteban Ortiz-Ospina",
            "Hannah Ritchie",
            "Joe Hasell",
            "Max Roser"
        ],
        "excerpt": "How has the protection of women\u2019s rights changed over time? How does it differ across countries? Explore global data and research on women\u2019s rights.",
        "dateline": "May 12, 2023",
        "subtitle": "How has the protection of women\u2019s rights changed over time? How does it differ across countries? Explore global data and research on women\u2019s rights.",
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{
    "id": "wp-56832",
    "slug": "influenza",
    "content": {
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                                "text": "Seasonal flu is a contagious illness caused by the influenza virus. It kills around 400,000 people from respiratory disease on average each year. In large pandemics, when new strains have evolved, the death toll has been much higher.\u00a0",
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                                "text": "Yet, data on the flu is limited. With better testing, countries could improve their response to flu epidemics. It could help to rapidly identify new strains, detect epidemics early, and design better-matched vaccines to target flu strains circulating in the population.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "This page therefore shows estimates of deaths during seasonal flu epidemics, historical flu pandemics, patterns of flu seasons in different countries, and confirmed cases of flu and flu-like symptoms across the world.",
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
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                                "text": "It also includes our Flu Explorer, a resource for epidemiologists, infectious disease researchers, and public health experts to monitor the global spread of the influenza virus.",
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                                "text": "Related topics",
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                                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/causes-of-death",
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                                                "text": "Causes of Death",
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                                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/vaccination",
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                                                "text": "Vaccination",
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                                                "text": "Covid-19",
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                        "text": "The flu is estimated to cause ",
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                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/influenza-deaths",
                        "children": [
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                                "text": "400,000 respiratory deaths each year",
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                        ],
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                    },
                    {
                        "text": " on average across the world. These deaths come from pneumonia and other respiratory symptoms caused by the flu.{ref}Paget J, Spreeuwenberg P, Charu V, Taylor RJ, Iuliano AD, Bresee J, Simonsen L, Viboud C; Global Seasonal Influenza-associated Mortality Collaborator Network and GLaMOR Collaborating Teams*. Global mortality associated with seasonal influenza epidemics: New burden estimates and predictors from the GLaMOR Project. J Glob Health. 2019 Dec;9(2):020421. doi: 10.7189/jogh.09.020421. ",
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                    {
                        "url": "https://jogh.org/documents/issue201902/jogh-09-020421.pdf",
                        "children": [
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                                "text": "https://jogh.org/documents/issue201902/jogh-09-020421.pdf",
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                        "text": "This shows the mean estimate of annual influenza mortality between 2002\u20132011, excluding the 2009 \u201cSwine flu\u201d pandemic influenza season. You can find estimated numbers for world regions in Table 2 of the paper. Rates for other age groups can be found here: ",
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                    },
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                        "url": "https://www.nivel.nl/sites/default/files/influenza-nieuwsbrief/GLaMOR%20project_seasonal%20estimates.pdf",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "https://www.nivel.nl/sites/default/files/influenza-nieuwsbrief/GLaMOR%20project_seasonal%20estimates.pdf",
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                        ],
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                    },
                    {
                        "text": " {/ref}\u00a0",
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                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "People also die from other complications of the flu \u2013 such as a stroke or heart attack \u2013 but global estimates have not been made of their death toll.{ref}The global number of people who die from other complications of the flu is unclear.",
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "Paget et al. (the authors of the Global Pandemic Mortality project, i.e. GLaMOR) state in their paper that their estimate \u201cdoes not cover cardiovascular deaths, something that could at least double the estimate of influenza-associated deaths.\u201d",
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "In recent meta-analyses, Behrouzi et al. found that influenza vaccination reduces the chances of major cardiovascular events (such as heart attacks and strokes) by around 34%, in clinical trials of the elderly.",
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
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                        "text": "This suggests the death toll from other complications could be large. However, global estimates have not been made of these types of deaths from flu.",
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "Paget, J., Danielle Iuliano, A., Taylor, R. J., Simonsen, L., Viboud, C., & Spreeuwenberg, P. (2022). Estimates of mortality associated with seasonal influenza for the European Union from the GLaMOR project. Vaccine, 40(9), 1361\u20131369.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.11.080",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": " https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.11.080",
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                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Behrouzi, B., Bhatt, D. L., Cannon, C. P., Vardeny, O., Lee, D. S., Solomon, S. D., & Udell, J. A. (2022). Association of Influenza Vaccination With Cardiovascular Risk: A Meta-analysis. JAMA Network Open, 5(4), e228873.",
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                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.8873",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": " https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.8873",
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                            }
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                    },
                    {
                        "text": "{/ref}",
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "The flu is ",
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                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/influenza-deaths#which-factors-affect-the-number-of-deaths-from-the-flu",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "most severe",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " in infants and the elderly.{ref}Metcalf, C. J. E., Paireau, J., O\u2019Driscoll, M., Pivette, M., Hubert, B., Pontais, I., Nickbakhsh, S., Cummings, D. A. T., Cauchemez, S., & Salje, H. (2022). Comparing the age and sex trajectories of SARS-CoV-2 morbidity and mortality with other respiratory pathogens. Royal Society Open Science, 9(6), 211498. ",
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                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.211498",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.211498",
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                    {
                        "text": " {/ref}",
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                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Among those over 65, the flu kills around 31 people per 100,000 each year from respiratory disease in Europe. You can see this on the map.",
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                        "text": "But it\u2019s not only age that matters, as the map shows. Death rates from the flu are higher in countries in South America, Africa, and South Asia, than in Europe and North America, due to poverty, poorer underlying health, lower access to healthcare, and lower vaccination rates.",
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                        "text": "In this article, we provide more detail:",
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                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "What you should know about this data",
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                                "text": "The annual mortality rate of influenza was estimated by the Global Pandemic Mortality Project II using data between 2002 and 2011.{ref}Paget J, Spreeuwenberg P, Charu V, Taylor RJ, Iuliano AD, Bresee J, Simonsen L, Viboud C; Global Seasonal Influenza-associated Mortality Collaborator Network and GLaMOR Collaborating Teams*. Global mortality associated with seasonal influenza epidemics: New burden estimates and predictors from the GLaMOR Project. J Glob Health. 2019 Dec;9(2):020421. doi: 10.7189/jogh.09.020421. ",
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                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://jogh.org/documents/issue201902/jogh-09-020421.pdf",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "https://jogh.org/documents/issue201902/jogh-09-020421.pdf",
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                                "spanType": "span-link"
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                            {
                                "text": " {/ref} They made these estimates using data from routine surveillance metrics for the flu, along with the number of excess deaths that occurred during flu seasons and mortality records where deceased people had respiratory symptoms.",
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                            {
                                "spanType": "span-newline"
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                                "text": "These are estimates of flu deaths due to respiratory symptoms. People also die from other complications of the flu \u2013 such as a stroke or heart attack \u2013\u00a0which are not included here.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
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                                "spanType": "span-newline"
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                                "text": "Estimates in low-income countries tend to be less certain due to lower levels of testing for influenza and limited mortality records.",
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                        ],
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            {
                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-mortality-rate-from-seasonal-influenza-ages-65?tab=map",
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "In many countries, flu became much rarer during the COVID-19 pandemic, due to the impact of social distancing.\u00a0",
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "You can see this in the chart. It shows the share of flu tests that were positive. In 2020 and 2021, there was a large decline in flu and the rates of positive tests were low.",
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                        "text": "Because the influenza virus is spread between people, through respiratory droplets and human contact{ref}Kutter, J. S., Spronken, M. I., Fraaij, P. L., Fouchier, R. A., & Herfst, S. (2018). Transmission routes of respiratory viruses among humans. Current Opinion in Virology, 28, 142\u2013151. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coviro.2018.01.001{/ref}, social distancing led to a large reduction in contact between people and limited the virus from spreading.{ref}Farboodi, M., Jarosch, G., & Shimer, R. (2021). Internal and external effects of social distancing in a pandemic. Journal of Economic Theory, 196, 105293. ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2021.105293",
                        "children": [
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                                "text": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2021.105293",
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                        "text": "Woskie, L. R., Hennessy, J., Espinosa, V., Tsai, T. C., Vispute, S., Jacobson, B. H., Cattuto, C., Gauvin, L., Tizzoni, M., Fabrikant, A., Gadepalli, K., Boulanger, A., Pearce, A., Kamath, C., Schlosberg, A., Stanton, C., Bavadekar, S., Abueg, M., Hogue, M., \u2026 Gabrilovich, E. (2021). Early social distancing policies in Europe, changes in mobility & COVID-19 case trajectories: Insights from Spring 2020. PLOS ONE, 16(6), e0253071. ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0253071",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0253071",
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                    },
                    {
                        "text": " {/ref}",
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                ],
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "This decline was very large because of the mathematics of epidemics.\u00a0",
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "The reproductive number (also called the R number) can help to understand why. This refers to the average number of people who will be infected by someone with the virus. When the R number is greater than 1, the average person who is infected will spread the virus to more than one person, who spread it to more and more people; the number of cases rises exponentially and leads to an epidemic.{ref}Rothman, K. J., Lash, T. L., VanderWeele, T. J., & Haneuse, S. (2021). Modern epidemiology (Fourth edition). Wolters Kluwer.{/ref}",
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
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                        "text": "However, when the R number is lower than 1, the virus does not lead to an epidemic, and the number of cases ",
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                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "falls",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                    {
                        "text": " exponentially.",
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
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                        "text": "Seasonal flu viruses tend to have an R number that is slightly above 1 at the start of an epidemic.{ref}\u200b\u200bBiggerstaff, M., Cauchemez, S., Reed, C., Gambhir, M., & Finelli, L. (2014). Estimates of the reproduction number for seasonal, pandemic, and zoonotic influenza: A systematic review of the literature. ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "BMC Infectious Diseases",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-italic"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ", ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "14",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                        "spanType": "span-italic"
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                    {
                        "text": "(1), 480.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://doi.org/10.1186/1471-2334-14-480",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": " https://doi.org/10.1186/1471-2334-14-480",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
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                    {
                        "text": "{/ref} Social distancing cut the number of contacts between people, and led to the R number of flu to dip much below 1 for a long time. This is why the spread of flu dwindled worldwide and was only seen in limited circumstances.{ref}This effect was so large that it may have led to the extinction of a lineage of flu called influenza B Yamagata.",
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Dhanasekaran, V., Sullivan, S., Edwards, K. M., Xie, R., Khvorov, A., Valkenburg, S. A., Cowling, B. J., & Barr, I. G. (2022). Human seasonal influenza under COVID-19 and the potential consequences of influenza lineage elimination. Nature Communications, 13(1), 1721. ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-29402-5",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-29402-5",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "spanType": "span-newline"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": "Paget, J., Caini, S., Del Riccio, M., van Waarden, W., & Meijer, A. (2022). Has influenza B/Yamagata become extinct and what implications might this have for quadrivalent influenza vaccines? Eurosurveillance, 27(39). ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2022.27.39.2200753",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2022.27.39.2200753",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
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                        "text": " {/ref}",
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "What you should know about this data",
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                            {
                                "text": "Testing to confirm flu is limited in many countries.{ref}World Health Organization & others. (2019). Global influenza strategy 2019-2030. ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/311184/9789241515320-eng.pdf",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/311184/9789241515320-eng.pdf",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": " {/ref} We therefore show the share of tests that were positive for the influenza virus.",
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                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/influenza?tab=chart&facet=none&country=CHN~CAN~GBR~USA&Confirmed+cases+or+Symptoms=Confirmed+cases&Metric=Share+of+positive+tests+%28%25%29&Interval=Monthly&Surveillance+type=All+types&hideControls=true",
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
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                        "text": "Over time, ",
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                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/influenza-deaths#what-did-influenza-mortality-look-like-in-the-past",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "the severity of the flu has declined",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " among people of the same age, as the chart shows.{ref}Acosta, E., Hallman, S. A., Dillon, L. Y., Ouellette, N., Bourbeau, R., Herring, D. A., Inwood, K., Earn, D. J. D., Madrenas, J., Miller, M. S., & Gagnon, A. (2019). Determinants of Influenza Mortality Trends: Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Influenza Mortality in the United States, 1959\u20132016. Demography, 56(5), 1723\u20131746. ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-019-00809-y",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-019-00809-y",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
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                        "text": " {/ref}",
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "This is because of flu vaccination, which began in the 1930s and 1940s, as well as improvements in ",
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                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/sanitation",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "sanitation",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ", neonatal healthcare, and ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/vaccination",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "childhood vaccination",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " for other diseases.{ref}Barberis, I., Myles, P., Ault, S. K., Bragazzi, N. L., & Martini, M. (2016). History and evolution of influenza control through vaccination: From the first monovalent vaccine to universal vaccines. Journal of Preventive Medicine and Hygiene, 57(3), E115\u2013E120. ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5139605/",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5139605/",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, & National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. (2021). Historical Reference of Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Doses Distributed. ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccine-supply-historical.htm",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccine-supply-historical.htm",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " {/ref} These benefits carried forward as people aged: they protected people from being vulnerable to diseases including influenza.",
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                "type": "text",
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                        "text": "But the flu still causes a large burden today, especially in countries that have poor sanitation, healthcare, and low vaccination rates.\u00a0",
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                        "text": "Another challenge is that populations have been aging rapidly.{ref}Acosta, E., Hallman, S. A., Dillon, L. Y., Ouellette, N., Bourbeau, R., Herring, D. A., Inwood, K., Earn, D. J. D., Madrenas, J., Miller, M. S., & Gagnon, A. (2019). Determinants of Influenza Mortality Trends: Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Influenza Mortality in the United States, 1959\u20132016. Demography, 56(5), 1723\u20131746. ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-019-00809-y",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-019-00809-y",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " {/ref} In lower-income countries, the flu could become a larger burden as ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/historic-and-un-pop-projections-by-age",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "their populations continue to age",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                        "spanType": "span-link"
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                        "text": ".",
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
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                        "text": "In this article, we provide more detail:",
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                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "What you should know about this data",
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                            {
                                "text": "These estimates come from a study by Enrique Acosta and colleagues, using data from the United States.{ref}Acosta, E., Hallman, S. A., Dillon, L. Y., Ouellette, N., Bourbeau, R., Herring, D. A., Inwood, K., Earn, D. J. D., Madrenas, J., Miller, M. S., & Gagnon, A. (2019). Determinants of Influenza Mortality Trends: Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Influenza Mortality in the United States, 1959\u20132016. Demography, 56(5), 1723\u20131746. ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-019-00809-y",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-019-00809-y",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
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                                "text": " {/ref}",
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
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                                "text": "The authors use national data on deaths and routine surveillance data for flu to calculate the rate of excess deaths during flu seasons, while accounting for changes in the age structure of the population.",
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                                "text": "The chart shows that the risk that someone dies from influenza at a given age has declined over time. But, because the population is getting larger and older, the total number of flu deaths has remained stable.",
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                "alt": "People born more recently have a lower risk of dying from influenza. Even when they reached the same age, people born in 1940 had a third of the risk of dying from flu than those born in 1900. This risk halved further for those born in 1980.",
                "size": "wide",
                "type": "image",
                "filename": "Historical-decline-in-influenza-deaths-by-birth-cohort.png",
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                "type": "text",
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                        "text": "Several respiratory infections, including the flu, are more common in the winter.\u00a0",
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "This is because they transmit more efficiently at lower temperatures and humidity, and when there is more social contact between people indoors.{ref}Petrova, V. N., & Russell, C. A. (2018). The evolution of seasonal influenza viruses. Nature Reviews Microbiology, 16(1), 47\u201360. ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://doi.org/10.1038/nrmicro.2017.118",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "https://doi.org/10.1038/nrmicro.2017.118",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " {/ref}",
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "In the chart, you can see the share of flu tests that were positive in different countries.",
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                ],
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
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                        "text": "Although the precise start and end of a flu season vary between years, flu epidemics tend to occur between November and May in the Northern Hemisphere. Meanwhile, in the Southern Hemisphere, they generally occur between June and October.\u00a0",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                ],
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "But in countries closer to the equator, there tend to be multiple peaks each year, or flu is present throughout the year. This may be because of rainy seasons, when people have more indoor contact.{ref}Chen, C., Jiang, D., Yan, D., Pi, L., Zhang, X., Du, Y., Liu, X., Yang, M., Zhou, Y., Ding, C., Lan, L., & Yang, S. (2023). The global region-specific epidemiologic characteristics of influenza: World Health Organization FluNet data from 1996 to 2021. International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 129, 118\u2013124. ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36773717/",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36773717/",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "spanType": "span-newline"
                    },
                    {
                        "spanType": "span-newline"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": "Petrova, V. N., & Russell, C. A. (2018). The evolution of seasonal influenza viruses. Nature Reviews Microbiology, 16(1), 47\u201360. ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://doi.org/10.1038/nrmicro.2017.118",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "https://doi.org/10.1038/nrmicro.2017.118",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "spanType": "span-newline"
                    },
                    {
                        "spanType": "span-newline"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": "Paynter, S. (2015). Humidity and respiratory virus transmission in tropical and temperate settings. ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Epidemiology & Infection",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-italic"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ", ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "143",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-italic"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": "(6), 1110\u20131118.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268814002702",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": " https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268814002702",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "spanType": "span-newline"
                            },
                            {
                                "spanType": "span-newline"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": "Igboh, L. S., Roguski, K., Marcenac, P., Emukule, G. O., Charles, M. D., Tempia, S., Herring, B., Vandemaele, K., Moen, A., Olsen, S. J., Wentworth, D. E., Kondor, R., Mott, J. A., Hirve, S., Bresee, J. S., Mangtani, P., Nguipdop-Djomo, P., & Azziz-Baumgartner, E. (2023). Timing of seasonal influenza epidemics for 25 countries in Africa during 2010\u201319: A retrospective analysis. The Lancet Global Health, 11(5), e729\u2013e739. ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(23)00109-2",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(23)00109-2",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    }
                ],
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "\u200b\u200bNewman, L. P., Bhat, N., Fleming, J. A., & Neuzil, K. M. (2018). Global influenza seasonality to inform country-level vaccine programs: An analysis of WHO FluNet influenza surveillance data between 2011 and 2016. PLOS ONE, 13(2), e0193263. ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0193263",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0193263",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
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                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " {/ref}",
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "You can see this in the chart for Singapore and Thailand, for example.",
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            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "What you should know about this data",
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                "parseErrors": []
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                "type": "list",
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                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Testing to confirm the flu is limited in many countries.{ref}World Health Organization & others. (2019). Global influenza strategy 2019-2030. ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/311184/9789241515320-eng.pdf",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/311184/9789241515320-eng.pdf",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                                "spanType": "span-link"
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                                "text": " {/ref}",
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            {
                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/influenza?tab=chart&time=2014-01-01..2020-01-01&facet=none&country=SGP~THA&Confirmed+cases+or+Symptoms=Confirmed+cases&Metric=Share+of+positive+tests+%28%25%29&Interval=Monthly&Surveillance+type=All+types&hideControls=true",
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
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                        "text": "Direct testing for the presence of the influenza virus is limited in many countries. For this reason, flu cases recorded in public databases \u2013 and the global data shown in our data explorer \u2013 greatly underestimate the true number of cases.",
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                "type": "text",
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                        "text": "Because of the lack of direct testing, it is useful to track flu-like symptoms.",
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                        "text": "It is important to note however that these symptoms are not specific to the flu: people with other diseases \u2013 such as rhinovirus, COVID-19, common colds, malaria, and others \u2013 can also have these symptoms and meet the following criteria.",
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                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Acute respiratory infections (ARIs)",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-bold"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " are the broadest type of metric. They can include anyone with sudden onset of at least one of the following symptoms: cough, sore throat, shortness of breath or rhinitis (inflammation of the mucous lining of the nose), but ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "only if",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-italic"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " they were judged by a doctor to be caused by an infection.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Influenza-like illnesses (ILIs)",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-bold"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " are narrower \u2013\u00a0they include only people with a sudden respiratory infection with a fever above 38\u00baC and a cough within the last 10 days.{ref}This definition has been used since 2011, after the Swine flu pandemic. Since then, most countries, but not all, have adopted it.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "spanType": "span-newline"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": "Fitzner, J., Qasmieh, S., Mounts, A. W., Alexander, B., Besselaar, T., Briand, S., Brown, C., Clark, S., Dueger, E., Gross, D., Hauge, S., Hirve, S., Jorgensen, P., Katz, M. A., Mafi, A., Malik, M., McCarron, M., Meerhoff, T., Mori, Y., \u2026 Vandemaele, K. (2018). Revision of clinical case definitions: Influenza-like illness and severe acute respiratory infection. Bulletin of the World Health Organization, 96(2), 122\u2013128.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "spanType": "span-newline"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://doi.org/10.2471/BLT.17.194514",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "https://doi.org/10.2471/BLT.17.194514",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "spanType": "span-newline"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": "World Health Organization. (2022). Respiratory Viruses Surveillance Country, Territory and Area Profiles, 2021.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/352183/WHO-EURO-2022-4760-44523-63025-eng.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": " https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/352183/WHO-EURO-2022-4760-44523-63025-eng.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "spanType": "span-newline"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": "Simpson, R. B., Gottlieb, J., Zhou, B., Hartwick, M. A., & Naumova, E. N. (2021). Completeness of open access FluNet influenza surveillance data for Pan-America in 2005\u20132019. Scientific Reports, 11(1), 795. ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-80842-9",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-80842-9",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " {/ref}",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Severe acute respiratory infections (SARIs)",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-bold"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " are severe cases of ILIs: they include only people with a sudden respiratory infection who had a fever above 38\u00baC, a cough, ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "and",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-italic"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " required hospitalization.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "In many countries, only a fraction of clinics in the country report flu-like metrics to their national system. This means that the number of reported cases ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "does not",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-italic"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " tell us about the total number of people with these infections.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Since some countries provide data from a larger number of healthcare clinics than others, this needs to be kept in mind when comparing different countries.{ref}World Health Organization. (2022). Respiratory Viruses Surveillance Country, Territory and Area Profiles, 2021. ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/352183/WHO-EURO-2022-4760-44523-63025-eng.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/352183/WHO-EURO-2022-4760-44523-63025-eng.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": "\u00a0 {/ref}",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "What you should know about this data",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "type": "heading",
                "level": 5,
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "list",
                "items": [
                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Countries may use different sources for each metric. Some countries collect data for ARIs universally, i.e. from all hospitals and outpatient clinics in the country, while many do not.{ref}For example, the United States uses the 'ILINet' system, which is connected to many clinics across the country.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "spanType": "span-newline"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "But, in many countries including the US, clinics participate on a voluntary basis, so not all clinics are included. Clinics in some states and demographics are less likely to be part of the system. See also: Baltrusaitis, K., Vespignani, A., Rosenfeld, R., Gray, J., Raymond, D., & Santillana, M. (2019). Differences in Regional Patterns of Influenza Activity Across Surveillance Systems in the United States: Comparative Evaluation. JMIR Public Health and Surveillance, 5(4), e13403. ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://doi.org/10.2196/13403",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "https://doi.org/10.2196/13403",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "spanType": "span-newline"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "This means 'non-sentinel' data may not be representative of the cases across the country. They may also lack high-quality testing.{/ref} ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "spanType": "span-newline"
                            },
                            {
                                "spanType": "span-newline"
                            }
                        ],
                        "parseErrors": []
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                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "The country's sampling method may also be different for ILIs or SARIs. The sampling strategy for each metric and for each country is reported to the WHO.{ref}World Health Organization. (2022). Respiratory Viruses Surveillance Country, Territory and Area Profiles, 2021. ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/352183/WHO-EURO-2022-4760-44523-63025-eng.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/352183/WHO-EURO-2022-4760-44523-63025-eng.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "spanType": "span-newline"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "Simpson, R. B., Gottlieb, J., Zhou, B., Hartwick, M. A., & Naumova, E. N. (2021). Completeness of open access FluNet influenza surveillance data for Pan-America in 2005\u20132019. ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "Scientific Reports",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ", ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "11",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "(1), 795.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-80842-9",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": " https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-80842-9",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": " {/ref}",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "parseErrors": []
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/influenza?uniformYAxis=0&country=~Northern+Hemisphere&Confirmed+cases+or+Symptoms=Symptoms&Metric=Comparison+of+data+on+respiratory+infections&Interval=Monthly&Surveillance+type=All+types&hideControls=true",
                "type": "chart",
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Each year, flu vaccines need to be updated because different viruses circulate in the population.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "This happens for two reasons. One is that flu viruses gradually evolve, and can evade people\u2019s immunity and cause reinfections.{ref}Krammer, F., Smith, G. J. D., Fouchier, R. A. M., Peiris, M., Kedzierska, K., Doherty, P. C., Palese, P., Shaw, M. L., Treanor, J., Webster, R. G., & Garc\u00eda-Sastre, A. (2018). Influenza. Nature Reviews Disease Primers, 4(1), 3. ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://doi.org/10.1038/s41572-018-0002-y",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "https://doi.org/10.1038/s41572-018-0002-y",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " {/ref}",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Another reason is that there are different types of flu that circulate each season.\u00a0",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "You can see this in the chart. It shows cases of two types of influenza: A and B, which commonly infect humans.{ref}There are four types of influenza viruses: A, B, C, and D. Influenza A and B tend to spread between people around the world each year. In contrast, influenza C and D mainly infect birds and other animals.{/ref}",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "There are many subtypes of influenza A, including H1N1 and H3N2 among others.{ref}The subtypes are named according to two proteins the virus has on its surface: hemagglutinin (H) and neuraminidase (N). There are many subtypes of each of these two proteins (18 hemagglutinin subtypes and 11 neuraminidase subtypes), but only some of the combinations have been observed. For example, H3N2 is a type of influenza A virus which has hemagglutinin subtype 3 and neuraminidase subtype 2.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "spanType": "span-newline"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": "Long, J.S., Mistry, B., Haslam, S.M. et al. Host and viral determinants of influenza A virus species specificity. Nat Rev Microbiol 17, 67\u201381 (2019). ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://doi.org/10.1038/s41579-018-0115-z",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "https://doi.org/10.1038/s41579-018-0115-z",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " {/ref} In contrast, there are two lineages of influenza B, which are called Victoria and Yamagata.{ref}Caini, S., Kusznierz, G., Garate, V. V., Wangchuk, S., Thapa, B., de Paula J\u00fanior, F. J., Ferreira de Almeida, W. A., Njouom, R., Fasce, R. A., Bustos, P., Feng, L., Peng, Z., Araya, J. L., Bruno, A., de Mora, D., Barahona de G\u00e1mez, M. J., Pebody, R., Zambon, M., Higueros, R., \u2026 the Global Influenza B Study team. (2019). The epidemiological signature of influenza B virus and its B/Victoria and B/Yamagata lineages in the 21st century. PLOS ONE, 14(9), e0222381. ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0222381",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0222381",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " {/ref}",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Unfortunately, testing for the flu is limited, and many countries lack testing to identify specific flu strains. This is why the number of confirmed cases shown in the chart greatly underestimates the actual number of infections, and why some cases are shown as \u2018unknown subtype/lineage\u2019.{ref}The subtype or lineage of a flu virus is not always determined during testing. This tends to be because some clinics do not test for all subtypes of influenza, due to a lack of testing resources. These are listed as unknown subtypes/lineages of influenza. For example, with influenza A, labs tend to test only whether they are the H1 or H3 strain.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "However, unknown subtypes/lineages can also include novel influenza strains, which have gone through significant evolution.{/ref}",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "This lack of testing is a problem. When there is a mismatch between the strains in the vaccine and the viruses circulating in the population, vaccines tend to have lower efficacy and the flu season tends to be more severe.{ref}Tricco, A. C., Chit, A., Soobiah, C., Hallett, D., Meier, G., Chen, M. H., Tashkandi, M., Bauch, C. T., & Loeb, M. (2013). Comparing influenza vaccine efficacy against mismatched and matched strains: A systematic review and meta-analysis. BMC Medicine, 11(1), 153. ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://doi.org/10.1186/1741-7015-11-153",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "https://doi.org/10.1186/1741-7015-11-153",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " {/ref} Additionally, limited testing also means the world is less able to detect new strains that may cause pandemics.{ref}Jernigan, D. B., Lindstrom, S. . L., Johnson, J. . R., Miller, J. D., Hoelscher, M., Humes, R., Shively, R., Brammer, L., Burke, S. A., Villanueva, J. M., Balish, A., Uyeki, T., Mustaquim, D., Bishop, A., Handsfield, J. H., Astles, R., Xu, X., Klimov, A. I., Cox, N. J., & Shaw, M. W. (2011). Detecting 2009 Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1) Virus Infection: Availability of Diagnostic Testing Led to Rapid Pandemic Response. Clinical Infectious Diseases, 52(suppl_1), S36\u2013S43. ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciq020",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciq020",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " {/ref}",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "To address this, the world needs more routine testing for the flu.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "What you should know about this data",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "type": "heading",
                "level": 5,
                "parseErrors": []
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            {
                "type": "list",
                "items": [
                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "This metric shows confirmed cases of flu: when people with flu symptoms have respiratory samples taken and tested to determine whether they have the influenza virus and whether they have influenza A or B. Some surveillance centers also test the samples to identify their subtype. These are described as strains for influenza A (e.g., A H7N9) and lineages for influenza B (e.g., B Yamagata). This testing can use molecular detection, virus culture, or immunological methods.{ref}Krammer, F., Smith, G. J. D., Fouchier, R. A. M., Peiris, M., Kedzierska, K., Doherty, P. C., Palese, P., Shaw, M. L., Treanor, J., Webster, R. G., & Garc\u00eda-Sastre, A. (2018). Influenza. Nature Reviews Disease Primers, 4(1), 3. ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://doi.org/10.1038/s41572-018-0002-y",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "https://doi.org/10.1038/s41572-018-0002-y",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "spanType": "span-newline"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "World Health Organization & others. (2015). A manual for estimating disease burden associated with seasonal influenza. ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789241549301",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789241549301",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "\u00a0 {/ref}",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "spanType": "span-newline"
                            },
                            {
                                "spanType": "span-newline"
                            }
                        ],
                        "parseErrors": []
                    },
                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Testing to confirm flu is limited in many countries.{ref}World Health Organization & others. (2019). Global influenza strategy 2019-2030. ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/311184/9789241515320-eng.pdf",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/311184/9789241515320-eng.pdf",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": " {/ref} In addition, not all confirmed flu cases are tested further to identify their strain. This is why many cases are shown as having an unknown subtype or lineage.{ref}Even in participating clinics, some data can be missing. For example, data collection forms may not be filled in or reported to the WHO for all patients with influenza-like illnesses who visit the clinics. Samples may not be packaged, stored, transported, or tested correctly, especially in regions with a lack of healthcare staff and supplies.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "spanType": "span-newline"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "See also: World Health Organization & others. (2019). Global influenza strategy 2019-2030. ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/311184/9789241515320-eng.pdf",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/311184/9789241515320-eng.pdf",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "spanType": "span-newline"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "Gentile, A., Paget, J., Bellei, N., Torres, J. P., Vazquez, C., Laguna-Torres, V. A., & Plotkin, S. (2019). Influenza in Latin America: A report from the Global Influenza Initiative (GII). Vaccine, 37(20), 2670\u20132678. ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2019.03.081",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2019.03.081",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": " {/ref}",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "parseErrors": []
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/influenza?uniformYAxis=0&country=Northern+Hemisphere~Southern+Hemisphere&Confirmed+cases+or+Symptoms=Confirmed+cases&Metric=Confirmed+cases+%28by+strain%29&Interval=Monthly&Surveillance+type=All+types&hideControls=true",
                "type": "chart",
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Some flu seasons are far more severe than usual seasonal influenza.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "This happens when influenza viruses combine with each other to make new strains which are more infectious and lethal, and lead to deadly pandemics.{ref}Krammer, F., Smith, G. J. D., Fouchier, R. A. M., Peiris, M., Kedzierska, K., Doherty, P. C., Palese, P., Shaw, M. L., Treanor, J., Webster, R. G., & Garc\u00eda-Sastre, A. (2018). Influenza. Nature Reviews Disease Primers, 4(1), 3. ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://doi.org/10.1038/s41572-018-0002-y",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "https://doi.org/10.1038/s41572-018-0002-y",
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                        "text": " {/ref}",
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                        "text": "For example, the Spanish flu pandemic was caused by a combination of human influenza and another animal influenza. Together, they formed the new H1N1 virus.{ref}Worobey, M., Han, G.-Z., & Rambaut, A. (2014). Genesis and pathogenesis of the 1918 pandemic H1N1 influenza A virus. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(22), 8107\u20138112. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1324197111{/ref}",
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                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "As you can see in the chart, it led to the ",
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                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/spanish-flu-largest-influenza-pandemic-in-history",
                        "children": [
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                                "text": "most devastating",
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                        "text": " influenza pandemic in recorded history. Estimates of the death toll vary: some studies estimate that 17.4 million people died globally from the Spanish flu between 1918 and 1920, while others estimate a much higher death toll of 50 to 100 million deaths.{ref}P. Spreeuwenberg; et al. (1 December 2018). \u201cReassessing the Global Mortality Burden of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic\u201d. American Journal of Epidemiology. 187 (12): 2561\u20132567. doi:10.1093/aje/kwy191. PMID 30202996. Online ",
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                        "url": "https://academic.oup.com/aje/article/187/12/2561/5092383",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "here",
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                        "text": ".{/ref}",
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                        "text": "The Spanish flu pandemic was most severe among children and young adults. Life expectancy at birth and at young ages ",
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                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/spanish-flu-largest-influenza-pandemic-in-history",
                        "children": [
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                                "text": "declined",
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                    {
                        "text": " by more than ten years.",
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                        "text": "But surprisingly, it did not have a significant impact on older people. Research suggests that this is because older generations had been exposed to similar H1 influenza viruses decades before the pandemic began, which gave them some protection against the Spanish flu strain.{ref}Gagnon, A., Miller, M. S., Hallman, S. A., Bourbeau, R., Herring, D. A., Earn, D. J. D., & Madrenas, J. (2013). Age-specific mortality during the 1918 influenza pandemic: Unravelling the mystery of high young adult mortality. PloS One, 8(8), e69586. ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0069586",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0069586",
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                ],
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Luk, J., Gross, P., & Thompson, W. W. (2001). Observations on Mortality during the 1918 Influenza Pandemic. Clinical Infectious Diseases, 33(8), 1375\u20131378. ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://doi.org/10.1086/322662",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "https://doi.org/10.1086/322662",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Ma, J., Dushoff, J., & Earn, D. J. D. (2011). Age-specific mortality risk from pandemic influenza. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 288, 29\u201334. ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2011.08.003",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2011.08.003",
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                        "text": " {/ref}",
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "In this article, we provide more detail:",
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            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "What you should know about this data",
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                            {
                                "text": "In the chart, we show a comparison of mortality estimates from different research groups for recent flu pandemics in history.{ref}Johnson, N. P. A. S., and Mueller, J. (2002). Updating the Accounts: Global Mortality of the 1918-1920 \u201cSpanish\u201d Influenza Pandemic. ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "Bulletin of the History of Medicine",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ", ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "76",
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                                ],
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                            },
                            {
                                "text": "(1), 105\u2013115. ",
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                            },
                            {
                                "url": "http://www.jstor.org/stable/44446153",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "http://www.jstor.org/stable/44446153",
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                                        "spanType": "span-newline"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "Patterson, K. D., & Pyle, G. F. (1991). The geography and mortality of the 1918 influenza pandemic. ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "Bulletin of the History of Medicine",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ", ",
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                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "65",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "(1), 4\u201321. ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "http://www.jstor.org/stable/44447656",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "http://www.jstor.org/stable/44447656",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "spanType": "span-newline"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "Spreeuwenberg, P., Kroneman, M., & Paget, J. (2018). Reassessing the Global Mortality Burden of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic. ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "American Journal of Epidemiology",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ", ",
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                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "187",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "(12), 2561\u20132567.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwy191",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": " https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwy191",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    },
                                    {
                                        "spanType": "span-newline"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "Paget J, Spreeuwenberg P, Charu V, Taylor RJ, Iuliano AD, Bresee J, Simonsen L, Viboud C; Global Seasonal Influenza-associated Mortality Collaborator Network and GLaMOR Collaborating Teams*. Global mortality associated with seasonal influenza epidemics: New burden estimates and predictors from the GLaMOR Project. J Glob Health. 2019 Dec;9(2):020421. doi: 10.7189/jogh.09.020421. ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://jogh.org/documents/issue201902/jogh-09-020421.pdf",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "https://jogh.org/documents/issue201902/jogh-09-020421.pdf",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    },
                                    {
                                        "spanType": "span-newline"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "Dawood, F. S., Iuliano, A. D., Reed, C., Meltzer, M. I., Shay, D. K., Cheng, P.-Y., Bandaranayake, D., Breiman, R. F., Brooks, W. A., Buchy, P., Feikin, D. R., Fowler, K. B., Gordon, A., Hien, N. T., Horby, P., Huang, Q. S., Katz, M. A., Krishnan, A., Lal, R., \u2026 Widdowson, M.-A. (2012). Estimated global mortality associated with the first 12 months of 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 virus circulation: A modelling study. The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 12(9), 687\u2013695. ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(12)70121-4",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(12)70121-4",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    },
                                    {
                                        "spanType": "span-newline"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "Simonsen, L., Spreeuwenberg, P., Lustig, R., Taylor, R. J., Fleming, D. M., Kroneman, M., Van Kerkhove, M. D., Mounts, A. W., Paget, W. J., & the GLaMOR Collaborating Teams. (2013). Global Mortality Estimates for the 2009 Influenza Pandemic from the GLaMOR Project: A Modeling Study. PLoS Medicine, 10(11), e1001558. ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1001558",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1001558",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": " {/ref}",
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                                "spanType": "span-newline"
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                                "text": "Estimates for historical flu pandemics tend to come from data on mortality rates. Pandemics cause sudden shocks to mortality compared to typical years. Researchers can calculate the excess mortality during the pandemic to estimate the deaths they caused while adjusting for other known factors, such as famine and war.\u00a0",
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                                "text": "There are still large uncertainties in each estimate, because historical mortality records are limited in many countries. However, the range of estimates for these pandemics is much higher than a typical flu season. For the Spanish flu pandemic, estimates are more than an order of magnitude higher.",
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                        "text": "Explore our data on influenza",
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                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/influenza?country=Northern+Hemisphere~Southern+Hemisphere",
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "Why we provide this Influenza Data Explorer",
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                        "text": "With this Flu Explorer, we aim to provide a helpful resource for epidemiologists, infectious disease researchers, and public health experts to understand the global spread of the influenza virus.",
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                        "text": "It differs from our widely-used infectious diseases projects, such as the ",
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                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer",
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                        "text": " and the ",
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                                "text": "Mpox Explorer",
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                        "text": ". These tools are designed for a broad audience. Unfortunately, flu data is incomplete in many ways, making it harder to communicate. ",
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                                "text": "This tool is therefore designed for users with pre-existing knowledge to navigate effectively the complex data published by the World Health Organization.",
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                        "text": "The explorer also highlights the significant gaps in influenza data. It is an important reminder of the need to improve data collection and reporting.",
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                        "text": "Key articles on Influenza",
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                                "text": "Saloni Dattani",
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        "excerpt": "Flu epidemics kill hundreds of thousands of people globally each year, but countries can respond and save lives with better data.",
        "dateline": "May 18, 2023",
        "subtitle": "Flu epidemics kill hundreds of thousands of people globally each year, but countries can respond and save lives with better data.",
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{
    "id": "wp-56798",
    "slug": "food-insecurity",
    "content": {
        "toc": [],
        "body": [
            {
                "left": [
                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Food insecurity ",
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                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://www.fao.org/hunger/en/",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "is defined by",
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                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": " the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations as the \u201csituation when people lack secure access to sufficient amounts of safe and nutritious food for normal growth and development and an active and healthy life.\u201d",
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                            }
                        ],
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                    },
                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "The chart below shows the share of the population that is \u2018severely food insecure'. Let\u2019s look at what this means, and how this is measured.",
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                            }
                        ],
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                ],
                "type": "sticky-right",
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                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-of-population-with-severe-food-insecurity",
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            {
                "text": [
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                        "text": "What is food insecurity and how is it measured?",
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                "level": 2,
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                "left": [
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                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Food insecurity is one of the major causes of poor nutrition.",
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                        ],
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                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Food insecurity can be caused by several factors: food might be physically unavailable in a particular country or region; it can be ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "http://ourworldindata.org/food-prices",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "unaffordable",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": " even if it is available to buy; or there might be an unequal distribution of food between household members.",
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                        ],
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                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Food insecurity is measured by the FAO using its Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) global reference scale.",
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                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Food insecurity can be based on how having ",
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                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "enough",
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                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": " food (the quantity) or having inadequate ",
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                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "quality",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": " and diversity of food. Someone might get enough food to meet their energy requirements, but they might rely on only a few basic foods (such as cereals) and have a diet with very little diversity.",
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                            }
                        ],
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "The FIES measures the share of the population that has experienced food insecurity at moderate or severe levels during the period of measurement. Data is collected at the household level using a food security questionnaire. This survey asks households about a number of conditions that someone with food insecurity would typically experience.",
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                            }
                        ],
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                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "It\u2019s based on eight questions (the ",
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                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/metadata/files/Metadata-02-01-02.pdf",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "full list",
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                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": " is given at the end of this article), such as:\u00a0",
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                                "text": ". Both metrics are used to estimate how many do not get enough food (in terms of energy) to eat. They just try to measure this in different ways. Food insecurity is based on household survey responses, which are more qualitative measure. Undernourishment is estimated based on actual food availability across the population; its a more quantitative measure.",
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                                "text": "Finally, was there a time when you (or any other adult in the household) went without eating for a whole day because of a lack of money or other resources?",
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                        "text": "Explore more data on food insecurity and hunger:",
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        "title": "How is food insecurity measured?",
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        "excerpt": "Billions of people suffer from food insecurity. What does this it mean to be food insecure?",
        "dateline": "April 27, 2023",
        "subtitle": "Billions of people suffer from food insecurity. What does this it mean to be food insecure?",
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    "slug": "tech-change-redesign",
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        "title": "We published a major overhaul of our work on Technological Change",
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            "Edouard Mathieu",
            "Max Roser"
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        "excerpt": "Explore our updated charts, data, and writing on Technological Change across the world.",
        "dateline": "April 26, 2023",
        "subtitle": "Explore our updated charts, data, and writing on Technological Change across the world.",
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{
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    "slug": "learning-curve",
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                        "text": "Our World in Data presents the data and research to make progress against the world\u2019s largest problems.",
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                        "text": "This article draws on data and research discussed in our entry on ",
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                                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/technological-change",
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                                        "text": "Technological Change",
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                        "text": "Technologies that follow Wright\u2019s Law get cheaper at a consistent rate, as the cumulative production of that technology increases.\u00a0",
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                        "text": "The best way to explain what this means is to look at a concrete example.",
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "Solar technology: an example of a technology that follows Wright\u2019s Law",
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                        "text": "The time series in the chart shows the deployment of solar panels on the horizontal axis and the price of solar panels on the vertical axis. The orange line that describes the relationship between these two metrics over time is called the ",
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                                "text": "learning curve",
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                        "text": " of that technology.\u00a0",
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                        "text": "As the cumulative installed capacity increased, the price of solar ",
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                                "text": "declined",
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                                "text": "exponentially",
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                        "text": ". Solar technology is a prime example. For more than four decades, the price of solar panels declined by 20% with each doubling of global cumulative capacity.",
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                        "text": "The fact that both metrics changed exponentially can be nicely seen in this chart because both axes are logarithmic. On a logarithmic axis, a measure that declines exponentially ",
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                        "url": "https://blog.datawrapper.de/weeklychart-logscale/",
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                                "text": "follows a straight line",
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                        "text": ".\u00a0",
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                        "text": "That more production leads to falling prices is not surprising \u2013 such \u2018economies of scale\u2019 are found in the production of many goods. If you are already making one pizza, making a second one isn\u2019t that much extra work.",
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                        "text": "What is exceptional about technologies that follow a learning curve is that this effect persists, and ",
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                                "text": "the rate at which the price declines stays roughly constant",
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                        "text": ". This is what it means for a technology to follow Wright\u2019s Law.",
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "The relationship between the laws of Gordon Moore and Theodore Paul Wright",
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                        "text": "Solar power is not the only technology where we see trends of exponential change. The most famous case of exponential technological change is Moore\u2019s Law \u2013 the observation of Intel\u2019s co-founder Gordon Moore who noticed that the number of transistors on microprocessors doubled every two years.\u00a0",
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                        "text": "We have another article on Moore\u2019s Law on Our World in Data: ",
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                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/moores-law",
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                                "text": "What is Moore\u2019s Law?",
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                        "text": "Integrated circuits are the fundamental technology of computers, and Moore\u2019s Law has driven a range of changes in computer technology in recent decades \u2013 computers became rapidly cheaper, more energy efficient, and faster.",
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                        "text": "Moore\u2019s Law, however, is not given in the same way that we just looked at for solar prices. Moore\u2019s Law describes technological change as a function of ",
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                                "text": "time. ",
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                        "text": "In the example of solar technology we looked at price changes not as a function of time, but of ",
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                                "text": "experience",
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                        "text": " \u2013 measured as the cumulative amount of solar panels that were ever installed.\u00a0",
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                        "text": "This relationship that each doubling in experience leads to the same relative price decline was discovered earlier than Moore\u2019s Law by aerospace engineer Theodore Paul Wright in 1936.{ref}Theodore Paul Wright (1936) \u2013 Factors affecting the cost of airplanes. J. Aeronaut. Sci., 3 (4) (1936), pp. 122-128 {/ref} It\u2019s called ",
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                                "text": "Wright\u2019s Law",
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                        "text": ", after him.\u00a0",
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                        "text": "Moore\u2019s observation of the progress in computing technology can be seen as a special case of Wright\u2019s Law.{ref}Plausibly, it isn\u2019t just the passing of time that drives the progress in computer chips, but there too it is the learning that comes with continuously expanding the production of these chips. Lafond et al (2018) explain that the two laws produce the same forecasts when cumulative production grows exponentially, which is the case when production grows exponentially. More precisely, if production grows exponentially with some noise/fluctuations, then cumulative production grows exponentially with very little noise/fluctuations. As a result, the log of cumulative production is a linear trend and therefore predicting cost by the linear trend of time or the linear trend of log cumulative production give the same results.\u00a0",
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                        "text": "Fracois Lafond, Aimee G. Bailey, Jan D. Bakker, Dylan Rebois, Rubina Zadourian, Patrick McSharry, and ",
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                    {
                        "url": "http://www.doynefarmer.com/",
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                                "text": "J. Doyne Farmer",
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                        "text": " (2018) \u2013 ",
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                        "url": "https://francoislafond.files.wordpress.com/2015/11/wrightslawpaper20.pdf",
                        "children": [
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                                "text": "How well do experience curves predict technological progress? A method for making distributional forecasts",
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                    {
                        "text": " In Technological Forecasting and Social Change\u00a0 128, pp 104-117, 2018. ",
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                        "text": ", ",
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                                "text": "Publisher",
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                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ", ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                    {
                        "url": "https://www.dropbox.com/sh/w7jvzijblb4nkex/AAC2R-ml3JvIjFfBZtUTPlkta?dl=0",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Data",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ", ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://francoislafond.files.wordpress.com/2019/12/forecast_tech_progress-1.zip",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Code",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
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                    {
                        "text": ".",
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                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "See also Nagy B, Farmer JD, Bui QM, Trancik JE (2013) Statistical Basis for Predicting Technological Progress. PLoS ONE 8(2): e52669. ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0052669",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0052669",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "spanType": "span-newline"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": "Wright\u2019s Law for solar PV modules has also been given its own name; some call it ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swanson%27s_law",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Swanson\u2019s Law (Wiki)",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ".{/ref}\u00a0",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Solar panels are not the only technologies that follow this law. Look at ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/costs-of-66-different-technologies-over-time",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "our visualization",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " of the price declines of 66 different technologies and the research referenced in the footnote{ref}Nagy B, Farmer JD, Bui QM, Trancik JE (2013) Statistical Basis for Predicting Technological Progress. PLoS ONE 8(2): e52669. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0052669",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "spanType": "span-newline"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": "Many more references can be found in Doyne Farmer and Fracois Lafond (2016) \u2013 How predictable is technological progress? Research Policy. Volume 45, Issue 3, April 2016, Pages 647-665. ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2015.11.001",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2015.11.001",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "spanType": "span-newline"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": "The price of Ford\u2019s Model T followed Wright\u2019s Law: each doubling of cumulative production led to the same relative decline in prices. What\u2019s fascinating is that this decline hasn\u2019t stopped until today. An 8hp car, as the Model T, costs what you\u2019d expect: See Sam Korus (2019) \u2013 ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ark-invest.com/analyst-research/wrights-law-predicts-teslas-gross-margin/",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Wright\u2019s Law Predicted 109 Years of Auto Production Costs, and Now Tesla\u2019s",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " {/ref}",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "The learning rate",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
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                "type": "heading",
                "level": 2,
                "parseErrors": []
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "The relative price decline associated with each doubling of cumulative experience is the ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "learning rate",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-italic"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " of a technology.\u00a0",
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                    }
                ],
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "The learning rate of solar panels is 20%. This means that with each doubling of the installed cumulative capacity, the price of solar panels declined by 20%.",
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                    }
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            {
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                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "In the footnote, you can find more information about the scientific literature on the learning rate in solar technology, and an example of how the learning rate is calculated.{ref}As one would expect, the exact learning rate for a given technology differs slightly across studies, mostly due to differences in the chosen data source, the chosen proxy measure for \u2018experience\u2019, the geographic location or the considered time-span.",
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "To give the fairest estimate and avoid relying on one unusual data point I am therefore reporting an average across several experience curve studies for PV that was conducted by de La Tour et al. 2013. The authors find an average learning rate over many studies of 20.2% (see Table 1 of their publication).",
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "de La Tour, A., Glachant, M. & M\u00e9ni\u00e8re, Y. (2013) \u2013 ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0360544213007883",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Predicting the costs of photovoltaic solar modules in 2020 using experience curve models",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ". In ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Energy",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
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                        "spanType": "span-italic"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " 62, 341\u2013348.",
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                ],
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            {
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                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "The learning rate implied by the data that I\u2019m presenting here is very similar (19.3%) and can be calculated as follows:",
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                        "text": "Cumulative capacity",
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                    {
                        "text": "\u2013 in 1976 0.3 MW",
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                    {
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                    {
                        "text": "\u2013 in 2019 578,553 MW",
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                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Module Cost ($ per W)",
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                    {
                        "text": "\u2013 in 1976 106.09",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
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                    {
                        "text": "\u2013 in 2019 0.377",
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "The number of doublings of the capacity is: log2(578,553 / 0.3)=20.879",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
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                        "spanType": "span-newline"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": "The rate of change of the price at each doubling is: (106.09 / 0.37725) ^ (1/(20.879)) - 1=0.31=",
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                        "children": [
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                                "text": "31%",
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                        "text": "So the learning rate is 1-2^(-0.31)=0.193399911=",
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                        "children": [
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                                "text": "19.3%",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                    {
                        "text": "{/ref}",
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                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "The high learning rate meant that the price of solar declined dramatically. As the chart above showed, the price declined from $106 to $0.38 per watt in these four decades. A decline of 99.6%.",
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                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "How is this possible? And is the relationship between experience and price causal?",
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                    {
                        "text": "That the price of technology declines when more of that technology is produced is a classic case of learning by doing. Increasing production gives the engineers the chance to learn how to improve the process.\u00a0",
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                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "This effect creates a virtuous cycle of increasing demand and falling prices. More of that technology gets deployed to satisfy increasing demand, leading to falling prices. At those lower prices, the technology becomes cost-effective in new applications, which in turn means that demand increases. In this positive feedback loop, these technologies power themselves forward to lower and lower prices.",
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                        "text": "The specifics, of course, differ between the different technologies. For more information on what is behind the price reduction of solar panels, see the footnote.{ref}According to the research cited below it involved: larger, more efficient factories are producing the modules; R&D efforts increase; technological advances increase the efficiency of the panels; engineering advances improve the production processes of the silicon ingots and wafers; the mining and processing of the raw materials increases in scale and becomes cheaper; operational experience accumulates; the modules are more durable and live longer; market competition ensures that profits are low; and capital costs for the production decline. A myriad of small improvements across a large collective process drives this continuous price decline.",
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                        "text": "Kavlak, Goksin and McNerney, James and Trancik, Jessika E. (2017) \u2013 Evaluating the Causes of Cost Reduction in Photovoltaic Modules (August 9, 2017). In Energy Policy, 123:700-710, 2018, ",
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                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2891516",
                        "children": [
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                                "text": "http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2891516",
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                        "text": "{/ref}",
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                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "How do we know that increasing experience is causing lower prices? After all, it could be the other way around: production only increases after costs have fallen.",
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                        "text": "In most settings, this is difficult to disentangle empirically, but researchers Fran\u00e7ois Lafond, Diana Greenwald, and Doyne Farmer found an instance where this question can be answered. In their paper \u201cCan Stimulating Demand Drive Costs Down?\u201d, they study the price changes at a time when reverse causality can be ruled out: the demand for military technology in the Second World War. In that case it is clear that demand was driven by the circumstances of the war, and not by lower prices.{ref}Lafond, Francois and Greenwald, Diana Seave and Farmer, J. Doyne, Can Stimulating Demand Drive Costs Down? World War II as a Natural Experiment (June 1, 2020). ",
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                        "url": "http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3519913",
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                                "text": "http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3519913",
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                        "text": "{/ref}\u00a0",
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                        "text": "They found that as demand for weapons grew, production experience increased sharply, and prices declined. When the war was over and demand shrank, the price decline reverted back to a slower rate. It was the cumulative experience that drove a decline in prices, not the other way around.",
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "What can we learn from the learning curve of a technology?",
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                        "text": "If you want to know what the future looks like, one of the most useful questions to ask is which technologies follow a learning curve.",
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                        "text": "Most technologies do not follow Wright\u2019s Law \u2013 the prices of bicycles, fridges, or coal power plants do not decline exponentially as we produce more of them. But those which do follow Wright\u2019s Law \u2013 like computers, solar panels, and ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/battery-price-decline",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "batteries",
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                        ],
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                    {
                        "text": " \u2013 are the ones to look out for. In their infancy, they might only be found in very niche applications, but a few decades later they are everywhere.",
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                        "text": "This means that if you are unaware that a technology follows Wright\u2019s Law, you can get your predictions very wrong. At the dawn of the computer age in 1943, IBM president Thomas Watson famously said, \"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.\"{ref}The first reference to Watson saying this is in an article from Der Spiegel from 26th May 1965 \u2013 ",
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                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://www.spiegel.de/spiegel/print/d-46272769.html",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Sieg der Mikrosekunde",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": "{/ref} At the price point of computers at the time, that was perhaps perfectly true, but what he didn\u2019t foresee was how rapidly the price of computers would come down. From their initial niche computers expanded to more and more applications, and the virtuous cycle meant that the price of computers declined continuously. The exponential progress of computer technology expanded their use from a tiny niche to the defining technology of our time.",
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                        "text": "Solar panels are on the same trajectory as we\u2019ve seen before. At the price of solar panels in the 1950s, it would have sounded quite reasonable to say, \u201cI think there is a world market for maybe five solar panels.\u201d But as a prediction for the future, this statement too, would have been ",
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                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/energy?tab=chart&facet=none&uniformYAxis=0&country=~OWID_WRL&Total+or+Breakdown=Select+a+source&Energy+or+Electricity=Electricity+only&Metric=Annual+generation&Select+a+source=Solar",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "ridiculously wrong",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                    {
                        "text": ".",
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                    {
                        "text": "To get our expectations about the future right, we are well-advised to take the exponential change of Wright\u2019s Law seriously. Doyne Farmer, Fran\u00e7ois Lafond, Penny Mealy, Rupert Way, Cameron Hepburn, and others have done important pioneering work in this field. A central paper of their work is Farmer\u2019s and Lafond\u2019s \u201cHow predictable is technological progress?\u201d.{ref}Doyne Farmer and Fracois Lafond (2016) \u2013 How predictable is technological progress? Research Policy. Volume 45, Issue 3, April 2016, Pages 647-665. ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2015.11.001",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2015.11.001",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "spanType": "span-newline"
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                        ],
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                    {
                        "text": "See also: de La Tour, A., Glachant, M. & M\u00e9ni\u00e8re, Y. (2013) \u2013 ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0360544213007883",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Predicting the costs of photovoltaic solar modules in 2020 using experience curve models",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ". In ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Energy",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
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                    },
                    {
                        "text": " 62, 341\u2013348.{/ref} The focus of this research paper is the price of solar, so that we avoid repeating Watson\u2019s mistake with renewable energy. They lay out in detail what I discussed here: how solar panels decline in price, how demand drives this change, and how we can learn about the future by relying on these insights.",
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                ],
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                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "To get our expectations for the future right, we need to pay particular attention to the technologies that follow learning curves. Initially, we might only find them in a few high-tech applications, but the future belongs to them.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
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        ],
        "type": "article",
        "title": "Learning curves: What does it mean for a technology to follow Wright\u2019s Law?",
        "authors": [
            "Max Roser"
        ],
        "excerpt": "Technologies that follow Wright\u2019s Law get cheaper at a consistent rate, as the cumulative production of that technology increases.",
        "dateline": "April 18, 2023",
        "subtitle": "Technologies that follow Wright\u2019s Law get cheaper at a consistent rate, as the cumulative production of that technology increases.",
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        "featured-image": "Screenshot-2023-04-17-at-20.57.11.png"
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    "createdAt": "2023-04-18T01:57:26.000Z",
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    "updatedAt": "2023-07-10T16:24:50.000Z",
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{
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "Why we provide this Influenza Data Explorer",
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                                "text": "With this Flu Explorer, we aim to provide a helpful resource for epidemiologists, infectious disease researchers, and public health experts to understand the global spread of the influenza virus.",
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                        "text": "While influenza is not always at the forefront of the public's mind, it is a significant cause of death globally \u2014 it causes ",
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                    {
                        "url": "https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31673337/",
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                                "text": "400,000 respiratory deaths",
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                        "text": " each year on average.",
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                        "text": "Additionally, it is considered ",
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                                "text": "one of the leading candidates",
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                        "text": " for a future pandemic. To detect these risks early, the world must closely monitor the situation. Accessible data must be available for those who can help understand and manage the potential threats.",
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                        "text": "This Flu Data Explorer differs from our widely-used infectious diseases projects, such as the ",
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                        "text": " and the ",
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                        "text": ". These tools are designed for a broad audience. Unfortunately, flu data is incomplete in many ways, making it harder to communicate. ",
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                        "children": [
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                                "text": "This tool is therefore designed for users with pre-existing knowledge to navigate effectively the complex data published by the World Health Organization.",
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                        "text": " on our Influenza page; they provide more detail on how to interpret these metrics meaningfully.",
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        "title": "We published a redesign of our work on the Internet",
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        "excerpt": "Explore our updated design, charts, and writing on global data on the Internet.",
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        "subtitle": "Explore our updated design, charts, and writing on global data on the Internet.",
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                                "text": "Population growth is one of the most important topics we cover at ",
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                                "text": "For most of human history, the global population was",
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                                "text": "a tiny fraction of what it is today. Over the last few centuries, the human population has gone through an extraordinary change. In 1800, there were one billion people. Today there are more than 8 billion of us.",
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                                "text": "But after a period of very fast population growth, demographers expect the world population to peak by the end of this century.",
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                                "text": "On this page, you will find all of our data, charts, and writing on changes in population growth. This includes how populations are distributed worldwide, how this has changed, and what demographers expect for the future.",
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                                "text": "Related topics",
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                        "text": "Geographical maps show us where the world's landmasses are; not where people are. That means they don't always give us an accurate picture of how global living standards are changing. ",
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                        "text": "One way to understand the distribution of people worldwide is to redraw the world map \u2013 not based on the area but according to population.",
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                        "text": "This is shown here as a ",
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                        "text": ": a geographical presentation of the world where the size of countries is not drawn according to the distribution of land but by the distribution of people. It\u2019s shown for the year 2018.",
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                        "text": "As the population size rather than the territory is shown in this map, you can see some significant differences when you compare it to the standard geographical map we\u2019re most familiar with.\u00a0",
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                        "text": "Small countries with a high population density increase in size in this cartogram relative to the world maps we are used to \u2013 look at Bangladesh, Taiwan, or the Netherlands. Large countries with a small population shrink in size \u2013 look for Canada, Mongolia, Australia, or Russia.",
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                        "text": "You can find more details on this cartogram in our article about it:",
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                                "text": "This map is based on the United Nation\u2019s 2017 World Population Prospects report. Our interactive charts show population data from the most recent UN revision. This means there may be minor differences between the figures shown on the map and the latest estimates in our other charts.",
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                        "text": "The speed of global population growth over the last few centuries has been staggering. For most of human history, the world population was well under one million.{ref}See, for example, Kremer (1993) \u2013 ",
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                                "text": "Population growth and technological change: one million BC to 1990",
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                        "text": ". In the Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 108, No. 3, 681-716.{/ref}",
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                        "text": "Around 108 billion people have ever lived on our planet. This means that today\u2019s population size makes up 6.5% of the total number of people ever born.{ref}As per 2011 estimates from Carl Haub (2011), \u201c",
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                        "text": "\u201d Population Reference Bureau.{/ref}",
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                        "text": "This increase has been the result of advances in living conditions and health that reduced death rates \u2013 especially in children \u2013 and increases in life expectancy.",
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                        "text": "There\u2019s a popular misconception that the global population is growing exponentially. But it\u2019s not.",
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                        "text": " of deaths \u2013 has also peaked. You can see this in our interactive chart:",
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                        "text": "Hans Rosling famously coined the term \"",
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                        "text": "\" for the moment in global demographic history when the number of children stopped increasing.",
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                        "text": "According to the UN data, the world has passed \"peak child\", which is defined as the number of children under the age of five.",
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                        "text": "It estimates that the number of children in the world peaked in 2017. For the coming decades, demographers expect a decades-long plateau before the number will decline more rapidly in the second half of the century.",
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                                "text": "These projections are sensitive to the assumptions made about future fertility rates worldwide. Find out more from the ",
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                                "text": "Other sources and scenarios in the UN\u2019s projections suggest that the peak was reached slightly earlier or later. However, most indicate that the world is close to \"peak child\" and the number of children will not increase in the coming decades.",
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                                "text": "The 'ups and downs' in this chart reflect generational effects and 'baby booms' when there are large cohorts of women of reproductive age, and high fertility rates. The timing of these transitions varies across the world.",
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                        "text": "When will population growth come to an end?",
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                        "text": "The UN\u2019s historical estimates and latest projections for the global population are shown in the chart.",
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                        "text": "The UN projects that the global population will peak before the end of the century \u2013 in 2086, at just over 10.4 billion people.",
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                                "text": "These projections are sensitive to the assumptions made about future fertility and mortality rates worldwide. Find out more from the ",
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                                "text": "Other sources and scenarios in the UN\u2019s projections can produce a slightly earlier or later peak. Most demographers, however, expect that by the end of the century, the global population will have peaked or slowed so much that population growth will be small.",
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                        "text": "What would the work look like if each country's area was in proportion to its population?",
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                        "text": "The world population has increased rapidly in recent centuries. But this is slowing.",
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        "excerpt": "We published a redesign of our work on the ozone layer. Explore all of our writing and charts in one place.",
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                        "text": "Age standardization can be helpful when comparing rates of health outcomes (for example, deaths from cancer) between populations, because age can be a significant risk factor for many diseases.",
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                        "text": "Since age structure varies between countries and in the same country over time, this adjustment allows us to see how mortality and morbidity vary without age differences.\u00a0",
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                        "text": "Age standardization involves adjusting the observed rates of a particular outcome to a \u201cstandard population\u201d with a specific age structure.",
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                        "text": "Why is it helpful to standardize health metrics for age?",
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                        "text": "The proportion of people in different age groups in a country is called its \"age structure.\" Countries across the world have significant differences in age structure. For example, only ",
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                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/population-by-broad-age-group?stackMode=relative&country=~UGA",
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                                "text": "2% of the population of Uganda",
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                        "text": " is older than 65, against ",
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                                "text": "30% in Japan",
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                        "text": ".",
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                        "text": "But many diseases or health outcomes occur more frequently as people get older: for example, cancers, heart disease, or dementia.",
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                        "text": "This difference in age structure means that a condition that affects older people will tend to occur more frequently in the Japanese population than in the Ugandan population, simply because of the higher proportion of older people in the country.",
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                        "text": "Standardizing the data for age can tell us how a health condition compares between Japan and Uganda if there were no differences in the age structure of the two countries.",
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                        "text": "What is a crude rate?",
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                        "text": "A crude rate is the unadjusted rate of a health outcome before any age standardization is applied.",
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                        "text": "Suppose a researcher wants to compare the death rate from cancer between Japan and Uganda. They would first calculate the death rate of people from cancer in each country.",
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                        "text": "To calculate this, for each year, the researcher would take the number of people who died of cancer and divide it by the country's population. This is called the ",
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                        "text": "This chart shows the crude death rate from cancer in Uganda and Japan, based on Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) data. It is expressed per 100,000 people in the population.",
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                        "text": "A crude rate is not inaccurate but can give us a biased view of the situation. By comparing the rates of cancer deaths between Uganda and Japan, we may conclude that something in Japan (such as nutrition, lifestyle, or healthcare) is causing many more people to die from cancer than in Uganda.",
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                        "text": "But we cannot make such a statement based on the crude rate, because the difference in the death rates may be due to Japan\u2019s higher proportion of older people compared to Uganda.",
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                        "text": "If we want to accurately compare the rates of a health outcome that becomes more frequent with age, we need to apply age standardization by adjusting these rates to a standard population.",
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "What is a standard population?",
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                        "text": "We need a \u201cstandard population\u201d to apply age standardization. A standard population is a specific age structure used as a reference for these adjustments.",
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                        "text": "Many different standard populations can be used. Some of the most commonly used ones are the ",
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                        "text": " (published by the WHO) and the ",
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                        "url": "http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/3859598/5926869/KS-RA-13-028-EN.PDF/e713fa79-1add-44e8-b23d-5e8fa09b3f8f",
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                        "text": " (published by Eurostat).",
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                        "text": "There are also national standard populations that can be used to compare health outcomes between different locations within a country. For example, the US National Cancer Institute maintains ",
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                        "text": " for the United States.",
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                        "text": "In a standard population, age groups are often broken down into 5-year intervals. Next to each age group, the proportion that the age group represents in the standard population is given.",
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                        "text": "For example, in the WHO\u2019s World Standard Population, the under-5 age group represents 8.86% of the standard population, the 5 to 9 years age group represents 8.69% of the standard population, etc.\u00a0",
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "How does age standardization work?",
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                        "text": "Age standardization is applied in three steps.",
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                        "text": "(1) Researchers start with the observed rates of the relevant health outcome for each age group. In our example, these would be the cancer death rates for each age group in Japan and Uganda.",
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                        "text": "For example, if we have 5-year intervals in our standard population, we would start from the cancer death rates of people in Japan aged 0\u20134, 5\u20139, 10\u201314, etc. These rates are called ",
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                                "text": "age-specific rates",
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                        "text": ".",
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                        "text": "(2) These rates are then multiplied by the proportion of the corresponding age group in the standard population. For example, as the group aged 60\u201364 represents 3.72% of the World Standard Population, we would multiply the age-specific rate for this group by 3.72%.",
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                        "text": "(3) After multiplying all age-specific rates by the corresponding proportion of each age group in the standard population, we sum the rates to obtain one number. This number is the ",
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                        "children": [
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                                "text": "age-standardized rate",
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                    {
                        "text": ".{ref}The national statistical office of Canada provides ",
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                        "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20230402125741/https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/dai/btd/asr",
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                                "text": "more details and a full example",
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                        "text": " of how to calculate age-standardized rates.{/ref}",
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                        "text": "These age-standardized rates allow us to compare cancer death rates in Uganda and Japan as if they applied to two countries with identical age structures.",
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                        "text": "In this example, we see that Uganda's age-standardized cancer death rate has surpassed Japan's since 2000.",
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                        "text": "Age-standardized rates provide a better comparison between populations with different age structures but do not represent the actual rate in each population. Using the age-standardized rate to say that 114 per 100,000 people in the Japanese population die from cancer each year would be inaccurate. We should refer back to the crude rate (346 per 100,000) for this.",
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "Age standardization can also be used across time or within a country",
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                        "text": "Age standardization is often used to compare health metrics between countries.",
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                        "text": "But we can also use it to measure health outcomes in the same location over time. Again, if we have a disease that primarily affects older people, we expect rates of that disease to rise over time as populations age.",
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "Age standardization then allows us to see how the rate would have changed if the population's age structure hadn\u2019t changed.",
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                        "text": "This can have a significant impact on our interpretation of health outcomes. One example of this comes from global death rates from cancer. On this chart, you can see that if we look at crude death rates (without age standardization), it looks like they have increased a lot in recent decades.",
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                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cancer-deaths-rate-and-age-standardized-rate-index",
                "type": "chart",
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            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "But a big part of this effect is explained by the fact that the world is getting older. When we adjust for age, we see that death rates have ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "fallen",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-italic"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ".",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/progress-against-cancer",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "In this related post",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ", we discuss this chart \u2013 and the question of whether or not the world is making progress against cancer \u2013 in more detail.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            }
        ],
        "type": "article",
        "title": "How does age standardization make health metrics comparable?",
        "authors": [
            "Edouard Mathieu"
        ],
        "excerpt": "Age standardization is a statistical method used to compare disease rates, or other health indicators, between populations while accounting for differences in their age structure.",
        "dateline": "April 4, 2023",
        "subtitle": "Age standardization is a statistical method used to compare disease rates, or other health indicators, between populations while accounting for differences in their age structure.",
        "sidebar-toc": false,
        "featured-image": "Living-planet-index-region-thumbnail.png"
    },
    "createdAt": "2023-04-04T10:42:16.000Z",
    "published": false,
    "updatedAt": "2023-07-10T16:23:55.000Z",
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    "publishedAt": "2023-04-04T09:58:49.000Z",
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{
    "id": "wp-56226",
    "slug": "ozone-layer-context",
    "content": {
        "toc": [],
        "body": [
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "One of the most pressing environmental problems over the last century has been the depletion of the ozone layer. But what is the ozone layer, and why does it matter?",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "Ozone is a gas present naturally within Earth\u2019s atmosphere. It is formed of three oxygen atoms (giving it the chemical formula O",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "3",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-subscript"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": "). Its structure makes it unstable: it can be easily formed and broken down through interaction with other compounds.",
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                ],
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
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                        "text": "Ozone is most highly concentrated at two very different altitudes in the atmosphere: near the surface, and high in the atmosphere (in the stratosphere). Its function is very different in these two zones.",
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            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "\u2018Good ozone\u2019 and \u2018bad ozone\u2019",
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                "type": "heading",
                "level": 2,
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                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Ozone close to the surface is called tropospheric ozone, and it is often referred to as \u2018",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "bad ozone",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-bold"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "\u2019. Ozone concentrations are lower in the troposphere than in the stratosphere.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
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                    {
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                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "We can see this in the diagram.\u00a0",
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                            }
                        ],
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                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "However, ozone concentrations close to the Earth\u2019s surface can be temporarily and locally higher, because of emissions from motor vehicle exhausts, industrial processes, electric utilities, and chemical solvents. Ground-level ozone is a local air pollutant, and can negatively impact human health. Breathing ozone is particularly harmful to the young, elderly, and people with underlying respiratory problems.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "parseErrors": []
                    },
                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "This is very different from ozone high in the atmosphere: stratospheric ozone. It\u2019s referred to as \u2018",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "good ozone",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-bold"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "\u2019.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
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                    },
                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "As shown in the diagram, ozone concentrations are higher in the stratosphere than in the troposphere.\u00a0",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "parseErrors": []
                    },
                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
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                                "text": "The stratosphere includes the zone commonly called the \u2018ozone layer\u2019. It plays a crucial role in keeping the planet habitable by absorbing potentially dangerous ultraviolet (UV-B) radiation from the sun. Before its depletion, the ozone layer typically absorbed 97 to 99% of incoming UV-B radiation.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
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                    },
                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "This means we need high ozone concentrations in the stratosphere to ensure that life \u2014 including human life \u2014 is not exposed to harmful concentrations of UV-B radiation.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
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                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "In our work on the ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "http://ourworldindata.org/ozone-layer",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "ozone layer",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ", we focus on this ozone high in the atmosphere (the \u2018good ozone\u2019). The impact of ozone near the surface (\u2018bad ozone\u2019) is covered in our work on ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "http://ourworldindata.org/air-pollution",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "air pollution",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ".",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "Why is the ozone layer important?",
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                "type": "heading",
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                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "The ozone layer absorbs 97% to 99% of the sun\u2019s incoming ultraviolet radiation (UV-B).\u00a0",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
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                    {
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                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "This is fundamental to protecting life on Earth\u2019s surface from exposure to harmful levels of this radiation, which can damage and disrupt DNA.",
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                            }
                        ],
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                    },
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                        "value": [
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                                "text": "In the 1970s and \u201880s, humans emitted large amounts of gases that depleted this ozone in the upper atmosphere. As ozone concentrations in the stratosphere fell, and a hole in the ozone layer opened up, there have been measurable increases in the amount of UV-B radiation reaching the surface.",
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                            }
                        ],
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                    },
                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "The chart shows the measured change in annual quantities of UV irradiance reaching Earth\u2019s surface, in 2008 compared to 1979.{ref}This is given for UV at a wavelength of 305 nanometers (nm), which is well within the range where it has maximum damage to DNA.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "parseErrors": []
                    },
                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Herman, J. R. (2010). ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2009JD012219",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "Global increase in UV irradiance during the past 30 years (1979\u20132008) estimated from satellite data",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ". Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 115(D4).{/ref}\u00a0",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "parseErrors": []
                    },
                    {
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                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "What\u2019s noticeable is that ozone depletion and UV irradiance have increased much more in the Southern Hemisphere. This is because ozone depletion is also impacted by temperature and sunlight. Temperatures are colder at high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere, so polar stratospheric clouds can form. These clouds can accelerate the reactions that break ozone down.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
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                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "You will also notice that ozone depletion is worse at higher latitudes. It\u2019s non-existent at the equator, and rises steeply towards the poles. Again, this is influenced by temperature and sunlight. That\u2019s why ozone holes form at the poles, rather than the equator.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
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                    },
                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "This increase in UV-B irradiation reaching the surface matters for life on Earth. One of the biggest concerns has been an increased risk of ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/cancer",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "skin cancer",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": " (as well as skin damage and aging).{ref}Pitcher, H. M., & Longstreth, J. D. (1991). ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/016041209190333L",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "Melanoma mortality and exposure to ultraviolet radiation: an empirical relationship",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ". Environment International, 17(1), 7-21.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "parseErrors": []
                    },
                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Clydesdale, G. J., Dandie, G. W., & Muller, H. K. (2001). ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1046/j.1440-1711.2001.01047.x",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "Ultraviolet light induced injury: immunological and inflammatory effects",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ". Immunology and Cell Biology, 79(6), 547.{/ref} This is because UV-B irradiation can damage skin DNA.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
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                    },
                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Since the 1980s, the world has ",
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                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://worksinprogress.co/issue/how-we-fixed-the-ozone-layer",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "achieved rapid progress",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ": the near-elimination of ozone-depleting substances and the trend toward recovering the ozone layer are among the most successful international environmental achievements to date.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Several studies have estimated that millions of excess skin cancer cases have been avoided due to the Montreal Protocol and its follow-up treaties.{ref}Dijk, A., Slaper, H., den Outer, P. N., Morgenstern, O., Braesicke, P., Pyle, J. A., & Tourpali, K. (2013). ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1751-1097.2012.01223.x",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "Skin Cancer Risks Avoided by the Montreal Protocol\u2014Worldwide Modeling Integrating Coupled Climate: Chemistry Models with a Risk Model for UV",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ". Photochemistry and Photobiology, 89(1), 234-246.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "parseErrors": []
                    },
                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Slaper, H., G. J. M. Velders, J. S. Daniel, F. R. de Gruijl and J. C. van der Leun (1996) ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/366023a0.pdf",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "Estimates of ozone depletion and skin cancer incidence to examine the Vienna convention achievements",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ". Nature 384(6606), 256\u2013258.{/ref}",
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                        ],
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                ],
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        "type": "article",
        "title": "What is the ozone layer, and why is it important?",
        "authors": [
            "Hannah Ritchie"
        ],
        "excerpt": "Over the last 50 years, holes in the ozone layer have opened up. Why does that matter for life on Earth?",
        "dateline": "March 13, 2023",
        "subtitle": "Over the last 50 years, holes in the ozone layer have opened up. Why does that matter for life on Earth?",
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{
    "id": "wp-56182",
    "slug": "moores-law",
    "content": {
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                "left": [
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                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "The observation that the number of transistors on computer chips doubles approximately every two years is known as Moore\u2019s Law.",
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                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Moore\u2019s Law is not a law of nature, but an observation of a long-term trend in how technology is changing.",
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                            {
                                "text": "The law was first described by Gordon E. Moore, the co-founder of Intel, in 1965.{ref}The original paper is Gordon E. Moore (1965) \u2013 ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20211221191553/http://www.monolithic3d.com/uploads/6/0/5/5/6055488/gordon_moore_1965_article.pdf",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "Cramming more components onto integrated circuits",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ". In Electronics, Volume 38, Number 8, April 19, 1965.{/ref} ",
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                                "text": "The chart shows Moore\u2019s original graph that he drew in 1965 to describe this regularity. At the time, he had only a handful of data points. Note that he drew it on a logarithmic scale, and remember that a straight line on a log-axis means that the\u00a0",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                            {
                                "children": [
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                                        "text": "growth rate",
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                            {
                                "text": " is constant and it is therefore showing the exponential growth of the number of transistors.",
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                                "text": "However, he hypothesized that this relationship would continue at a similar rate: \u201cThere is no reason to believe it will not remain constant for at least 10 years\u201d.{ref}Quoted from Gordon E. Moore (1965) \u2013 ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                            {
                                "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20211221191553/http://www.monolithic3d.com/uploads/6/0/5/5/6055488/gordon_moore_1965_article.pdf",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "Cramming more components onto integrated circuits",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                            },
                            {
                                "text": ". In Electronics, Volume 38, Number 8, April 19, 1965.{/ref}",
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                        "alt": "The Number of Components per Integrated Function Moore's Original Graph - Moore0",
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "Moore\u2019s Law has held true for more than half a century",
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                "left": [
                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "In 1965, Gordon Moore predicted that this growth would continue for another 10 years, at least. Was he right?",
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                        ],
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                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "In the chart, we\u2019ve visualized the growth in transistor density \u2013 the number of transistors on integrated circuits \u2013 from 1970 onwards.\u00a0",
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                            }
                        ],
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                        "value": [
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                                "text": "It looks strikingly similar to Moore\u2019s simple plot from 1965. Note again that the transistor count is on a logarithmic axis, so the linear relationship over time means that the growth ",
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                            {
                                "children": [
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                                        "text": "rate",
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                            },
                            {
                                "text": " has been constant.\u00a0",
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                                "text": "This means that the growth of the transistor count has, in fact, been exponential. You can also see this on our ",
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                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/transistors-per-microprocessor",
                                "children": [
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                                        "text": "interactive chart",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ", which shows the average transistor count over time and where you can switch between a linear and a log axis",
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                                "text": "Transistor counts have doubled approximately every two years, just as Moore predicted.",
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                                "text": "This has held true for more than 50 years now.",
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "There are many examples of exponential technological change",
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                                "text": "Moore\u2019s Law describes the increasing number of transistors on integrated circuits, which in itself doesn\u2019t matter for us as users of computer equipment. But it matters for those aspects that we do care about, like the speed and cost of computing.",
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                                "text": "Many related metrics show a similar pattern of exponential growth. The computational capacity of computers has increased exponentially, doubling every 1.5 years, from 1975 to 2009.{ref}Koomey, Berard, Sanchez, and Wong (2011) \u2013 Implications of Historical Trends in the Electrical Efficiency of Computing. In IEEE Annals of the History of Computing, 33, 3, 46\u201354.{/ref}\u00a0",
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                                "text": "More recent data is shown in the interactive chart. It shows the increase in supercomputer power, measured as the largest supercomputer in any given year. The unit of measurement is FLOPS: the number of computations the machine can carry out per second.",
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                                "text": "Computing efficiency \u2013 measuring the energy use of computers \u2013 has halved every 1.5 years over the last 60 years.{ref}A short ungated article on this research is in the ",
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                                        "text": "MIT Technology Review",
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                                "text": "Exponential progress is also found in the cost of computer memory and storage. In the chart, we see the cost of computer storage across different mediums \u2013 disks, flash drives, and internal memory \u2013 since the 1950s. This is measured as the price per terabyte.",
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                        "text": "Moore\u2019s observation that the transistor count on integrated circuits grows exponentially is at the heart of many of the most consequential changes of our time. In ",
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                                "text": "our work on artificial intelligence",
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                        "text": " we explore how the exponential growth translates in computing technology translated into more and more powerful AI systems.",
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        "title": "What is Moore's Law?",
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            "Hannah Ritchie",
            "Edouard Mathieu"
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        "excerpt": "Exponential growth is at the heart of the rapid increase of computing capabilities.",
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                        "text": "Johns Hopkins University has been at the forefront of collecting and reporting data on confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths since the outbreak began in 2020. However, it ",
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                                "text": "recently announced",
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                        "text": " that it would stop updating its data on 10 March 2023.",
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                        "text": "Our team at Our World in Data recognizes the importance of up-to-date data on the pandemic. We will switch our primary source to ",
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                                "text": "the World Health Organization (WHO)",
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                        "text": ", which updates its dataset weekly.",
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                        "text": "To keep this data consistent over time, we will replace the entire time series with WHO data on 8 March 2023.",
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                        "text": "Our goal is to continue providing the most complete and timely data on the pandemic, and relying on the WHO data is the best way to achieve this.",
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                        "text": "This change will be seamless for our users. The URL of all our charts and the variable names in our dataset will remain the same.",
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                        "url": "https://github.com/owid/covid-19-data/tree/master/public/data",
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                                "text": "All other COVID-19 datasets",
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                        "text": " we maintain will remain unchanged.",
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                        "text": "An archive of the last version (8 March 2023) of our dataset based on data from Johns Hopkins University is available for download ",
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                        "url": "https://covid.ourworldindata.org/data/owid-covid-data-old.csv",
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                                "text": "here",
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                        "text": " (CSV file, 69 Mo).",
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                        "text": "We want to take this opportunity to thank the team at Johns Hopkins for their crucial work since the beginning of the pandemic. Their efforts have been invaluable in helping us understand the impact of this virus across the world.",
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        "type": "article",
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        "authors": [
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            "Lucas Rod\u00e9s-Guirao"
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        "excerpt": "Johns Hopkins University will stop publishing data on confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths. Our team will replace our entire time series with WHO's weekly-updated data on 8 March. This change will not affect users of our charts and dataset.",
        "dateline": "February 28, 2023",
        "subtitle": "Johns Hopkins University will stop publishing data on confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths. Our team will replace our entire time series with WHO's weekly-updated data on 8 March. This change will not affect users of our charts and dataset.",
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                        "text": "For each topic, we work to provide the best metrics to understand it. What metrics are 'best' will often depend on our specific questions. Overall, a metric we provide will fit many of the following criteria:",
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                                        "text": "It covers large parts of the world. ",
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                                "text": "True to our name, we seek metrics which cover as much of the world as possible. Only then can they help us understand global differences and changes.",
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                                        "text": "It covers a lot of time. ",
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                                "text": "This means both that the measure goes as far back in time as possible, and that it is as recent as possible. It then can help us understand both historical and very recent developments.",
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                                        "text": "It is comparable across time and space",
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                                "text": ". This means that we prefer metrics that can be compared across years and countries. This allows us to evaluate whether countries are making progress or falling behind, and how countries are doing relative to another.",
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                                        "text": "It captures what we are trying to measure",
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                                "text": ". This means that the metric does not give an incomplete or misleading answer to the question we have. For example, an inadequate measure for whether a country is a democracy is the share of the population that voted. Looking only at voter turnout ignores whether citizens had more than one choice at the ballot box. And at the same time, it inadvertently considers citizens that were coerced to vote.",
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                                        "text": "It is reliable.",
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                                "text": " This means that the metric is consistent, i.e. it captures the phenomenon similarly when measured repeatedly, and therefore is precise, and captures the phenomenon with little error. A consistent and precise metric makes us more confident in what it tells us about the world.",
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                                        "text": "Its construction is transparent.",
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                                "text": " This means that we prefer metrics that come with a detailed description of how it was constructed, why it was constructed in this way, and with the underlying code and raw data. We, and you as our reader, then can evaluate its strengths and weaknesses in detail.",
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                                "text": ". This means that the metric captures something that people are broadly familiar with, and they can broadly make sense of its construction. It then can provide answers that people beyond experts can learn from.",
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                                        "text": "It is maintained well.",
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                                "text": " This means that the data source updates the metric frequently, and provides reasonably up-to-date data. We often favor data from international institutions (such as the World Bank and the UN) and research institutions (such as the Global Carbon Project and the Varieties of Democracy project) over data from individual academic publications, because the former have the mandate and resources to keep this data up-to-date.",
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                                        "text": "Its values differ a lot from the same measure by another trusted source.",
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                            {
                                "text": " This means a metric captures disagreement across sources. It then helps us to be appropriately uncertain of our answers in light of disagreeing sources.",
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                                        "text": "It is accessible.",
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                                "text": " This means that the data is published in a publicly accessible document and is licensed to be reused by us and preferably others. Only then can it help people answer their questions, on and beyond our site.",
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                                        "text": "We have the tools to visualize it. ",
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                            {
                                "text": "This means a metric is structured such that our in-house visualization tool \u2014 the ",
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                                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/owid-grapher",
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                                        "text": "Our World in Data Grapher",
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                            {
                                "text": " \u2014 can display its information well. For example, our maps are set up to visualize national data, and currently cannot display metrics at the sub-national level or gridded data.",
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                        "text": "The topics and metrics we present are not set in stone, and we keep thinking about which ones to add. So if you think a topic or metric fits the criteria outlined here, please reach out to us at ",
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                        "url": "mailto:[email protected]",
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                                "text": "[email protected]",
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                        "text": ".",
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                        "text": "We cover a topic if we believe it helps our readers understand one or several of the world\u2019s largest problems. More specifically, this means that a topic will fit many of the following criteria:",
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                                        "text": "It affects many countries and people.",
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                                "text": " This can mean that it concerns every person, such as ",
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                                "text": ". It can mean that it affects many people in all countries, such as ",
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                                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/poverty",
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                                        "text": "poverty",
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                                "text": ". Or it can mean that it affects many people in fewer countries, such as ",
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                                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/malaria",
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                                        "text": "malaria",
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                                        "text": "It comes with great costs or benefits. ",
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                                "text": "The costs or benefits can be direct, and shorten people\u2019s lives or mean they lead happier lives. An example is the ",
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                                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus",
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                                "text": ", which has immediately affected people\u2019s well-being. But the costs or benefits can also be indirect, and worsen or alleviate other problems. An example is ",
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                                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/agricultural-production",
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                                        "text": "agricultural production",
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                                "text": ", which affects many people\u2019s access to nutrition.",
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                                        "text": "It poses significant risks.",
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                                "text": " This means that it may not impose great costs at the moment, but may do so in the future. An example is ",
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                                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/nuclear-weapons",
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                                        "text": "nuclear weapons",
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                                "text": ", which have not been used in decades but whose use would be devastating.",
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                                        "text": "It will remain important, or become more important in the future.",
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                                "text": " is an example of a topic that will remain important, as many people remain impoverished even if fewer people live in extreme poverty than in the past. ",
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                                "text": " is an example of a topic that will become more important, as technological advances continuously expand its effects on people\u2019s lives.",
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                                        "text": "It is helpful to understand other topics.",
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                                "text": " Many of the topics we focus on are problems in themselves. But we also provide data and research on major changes that help us understand and address these problems. An example is ",
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                                "text": " This means the public knows little about a problem or frequently misunderstands it, such as because the data on it is not described well. An example is ",
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                                        "text": "It is neglected elsewhere.",
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                                "text": " This can mean that other organizations do not cover it, or do so in a limited fashion. An example is ",
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                                "text": ", where data on global changes are hard to find elsewhere. This also means that if others cover a topic well, we are less likely to cover it ourselves.",
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                                        "text": "We have expertise on it.",
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                                "text": " If we have someone on our team with deep knowledge of the area, we are more likely to cover the topic. Ideally, we would have both a researcher and a data scientist with this expertise. An example is ",
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                                        "text": "We have funding available for it.",
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                                "text": " While most of our funding comes from unrestricted resources, including ",
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                                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/donate",
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                                        "text": "reader donations",
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                                "text": ", we partially fund our work through restricted grants. Importantly, we only apply for them if they are on topics we want to cover in depth anyway, and the grant does not come with any requirements on ",
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                        "text": "We evaluate ourselves how a topic fits these criteria. But we rely heavily on related research, especially research that is peer-reviewed.",
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{
    "id": "wp-56043",
    "slug": "optimism-and-pessimism",
    "content": {
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                        "text": "This page is dedicated to the research why people are optimistic or pessimistic about certain things and how this is influenced by human nature,\u00a0the media, and social circumstances.",
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                        "text": "We are interested in this topic also because it is closely linked to ",
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                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/about/",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "our motivation",
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                        ],
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                    },
                    {
                        "text": " for publishing\u00a0Our World in Data. We face big global problems, but living conditions around the world have improved in important ways; fewer people are dying of disease, conflict and famine; more of us are receiving a basic education; the world is becoming more democratic; we live longer and lead healthier lives. ",
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                        "text": "Why is that we \u2013 especially those in the developed world\u00a0\u2013 often have a negative view on how the world has changed over the last decades and centuries? Why we\u00a0are so pessimistic about our collective future?",
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                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "Human nature and pessimism",
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                "level": 2,
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "Individual optimism and social pessimism",
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                        "text": "It is a peculiar empirical phenomenon that while people tend to be optimistic about their own future, they can at the same time be deeply pessimistic about the future of their nation or the world. Tali Sharot, associate professor of psychology at UCL, has popularised the idea of an innate optimism bias built into the human brain.{ref}Sharot, Tali. ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "The Optimism Bias: A Tour of the Irrationally Positive Brain",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-italic"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ". New York: Pantheon Books, 2011.",
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                    },
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                    {
                        "text": "Sharot, Tali. ",
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                    },
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "The Science of Optimism Why We're Hard-wired for Hope",
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                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-italic"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ". New York: Ted Conferences, 2012.{/ref}",
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                        "text": " That is, we tend to be optimistic rather than realistic when considering our individual future. If you were to ask newlywed couples to estimate the probability they will divorce in the future, they would likely reject the possibility outright. Yet today roughly 40% of marriages in the UK end in divorce. Another example is asking smokers to estimate their chances of getting cancer and again, most would underestimate their risk. This optimism persists even when people are presented with the relevant statistics.",
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                        "text": "Consider the following graphs from the European Union's Eurobarometer surveys; they report people's expectations about their own personal job situation and of the economic situation in their home country. From the end of 1995 to the middle of 2015, around 60% of people predict that their job situation will remain the same, while 20% expect their situation to improve. Compare that with the response of the same group of individuals considering the future of the economic situation in their home country. Although far less stable, the results show that most people expect the economic situation in their home country to get worse or stay the same. The expectation that things are going to worsen nationally is correlated with recessions, yet there is remarkable stability in the results for individual expectations. Does the response to the question about national economic well being better correspond to an individual's true job prospects?",
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                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "EU survey responses on individual and economic optimism - Eurobarometer surveys{ref}Eurobarometer surveys. Available online ",
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                        "url": "http://ec.europa.eu/commfrontoffice/publicopinion/index.cfm",
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                                "text": "here",
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                        "text": ".{/ref}",
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            {
                "alt": "EU survey responses on optimism",
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                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "We are local optimists and national pessimists \u2013 in politics",
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                        "text": "This pattern is also observed on a larger scale. This chart shows how individuals in the UK respond to the question: \"Thinking about ..., how much of a problem do you think each of the following are in your local area and in the whole of the UK?\" Individuals tend to believe problems are more pronounced nationally than in their local area.",
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                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "Local optimists and national pessimists in the UK, 2013 \u2013 Ipsos MORI{ref}\"Perils of Perception: Topline Results.\" Ipsos MORI (2013). Available online ",
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                        "url": "https://www.west-info.eu/files/Perils_of_perception_Topline1.pdf",
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                                "text": "here",
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                        "text": ".{/ref}",
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                "alt": "LocalOptimismGlobalPessimism_IPSOSMori",
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "We are local optimists and national pessimists \u2013 in\u00a0environmental aspects",
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                        "text": "This chart shows how many individuals rate the environment in their local area as fairly or very bad, compared with the environment nationally and globally. Again, we observe a similar pattern for most countries.\u00a0No matter where you ask people are much more negative about places that are far away\u00a0\u2013 places which they know less from their own experience and more through the media.",
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                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "Percentage of respondents who evaluate the environmental quality of their local community, their nation and the world as very or fairly bad \u2013 Lomborg (2001){ref}Figure: Lomborg, Bj\u00f8rn. \"The Skeptical Environmentalist: Measuring the True State of the Planet.\" (2001).",
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                    {
                        "text": " Data: Dunlap, Riley E., George H. Gallup Jr, and Alec M. Gallup. \"Of global concern: Results of the health of the planet survey.\" Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development 35, no. 9 (1993): 7-39. Available online ",
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                        "url": "https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00139157.1993.9929122",
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                                "text": "here",
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                        "text": ".{/ref}",
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                "alt": "Percentage of respondents who evaluate the environmental quality",
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "Why are we social pessimists?",
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                        "text": "How can we reconcile this individual optimism with social pessimism? Paul Dolan, professor of behavioural science at LSE, believes people respond pessimistically to questions about national or international performance for three reasons:",
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                                "text": "Individuals rarely think about grand issues such as the state of the nation or world, and so respond with an 'on-the-spot' answer that may not be well considered or even a true reflection of their beliefs.",
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                                "text": "The framing can influence the individual's response. Moreover, the question itself may bias responses; 'who would bother to ask if everything were okay?'",
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                                "text": "Responses to questions such as these (and more general questions about happiness or life satisfaction) are heavily influenced by ephemeral recent events. In psychology this is referred to as the 'availability bias'.",
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                        "text": "This explanation suggests there is a problem of information. If we do not pay attention to human development, then our judgement may suffer from a bias related to transient events or framing. ",
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                    {
                        "url": "http://www.gapminder.org/ignorance/",
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                                "text": "The Gapminder Ignorance Project",
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                    {
                        "text": "\u00a0\u2013 which studied how wrong or right people are informed about global development \u2013 suggests the reason for all this ignorance is:",
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                                "text": "\"Statistical facts don\u2019t come to people naturally. Quite the opposite. Most people understand the world by generalizing personal experiences which are very biased. In the media the \u201cnews-worthy\u201d events exaggerate the unusual and put the focus on swift changes. Slow and steady changes in major trends don\u2019t get much attention. Unintentionally, people end-up carrying around a sack of outdated facts that you got in school (including knowledge that often was outdated when acquired in school).\"",
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                        "text": "Another explanation put forward by Martin Seligman, professor of psychology at the University of Pennsylvania, suggests a link between control and optimism. If we feel more in control of our lives, we tend to be happier, healthier and more optimistic about the future. This could also help to explain the gap between individual and societal optimism: since we are in direct control of our own lives but not the destiny of the nation we feel more optimistic about ourselves.",
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "Information matters: We are not only pessimistic about the future, we\u00a0are also\u00a0unaware of past improvements",
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                        "text": "At Our World in Data we aim to bring together the empirical data and research to show how living conditions around the world are changing. Is that necessary?",
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                        "text": "The opinion research organization Ipsos MORI conducted a ",
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                        "url": "https://www.ipsos.com/en/global-perceptions-development-progress-perils-perceptions-research",
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                                "text": "detailed survey",
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                        "text": " of 26,489 people across 28 countries that gives us an answer.{ref}The full reference of the survey is \u2018Chris Jackson (2017) \u2013 Global Perceptions of Development Progress: \u2018Perils of Perceptions\u2019 Research\u2019, published by Ipsos MORI, 18 September 2017.{/ref}",
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                        "text": "Most people think global poverty is rising when in fact the opposite is happening",
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                        "text": "The first chart shows how the surveyed people answered the following question: ",
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                        "children": [
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                                "text": "\u201cIn the last 20 years, the proportion of the world population living in extreme poverty has decreased, increased, or remained the same?\u201d",
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                        "text": "The majority of people \u2013 52% \u2013 believe that the share of people in extreme poverty is rising. The opposite is true. In fact, the share of people living in extreme poverty across the world has been declining for two centuries and in the last 20 years this positive development has been faster than ever before (see our work on ",
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                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/poverty?insight=global-extreme-poverty-declined-substantially-over-the-last-generation#key-insights-on-poverty",
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                                "text": "Poverty",
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                        "text": "). For the recent era it doesn't even matter what poverty line you choose, the share of people below any poverty line has fallen (see ",
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                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/distribution-of-population-between-different-poverty-thresholds-up-to-30-dollars?stackMode=relative&country=~OWID_WRL",
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                                "text": "here",
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                        "text": ").",
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                        "text": "There are some people who answered the question correctly: every fifth person knows that poverty is falling. But it\u2019s interesting that the share of correct answers differs substantially across countries. The countries I marked with a star are those that were a low-income or lower-middle-income countries a generation ago (in 1990). In these poorer countries more people understand how global poverty has changed. People in richer countries on the other hand \u2013 in which the majority of the population escaped extreme poverty ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/gdp-per-capita-maddison-2020?time=1800..latest&country=SWE~USA~GBR~FRA~DEU~AUS",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "some generations ago",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " \u2013 have a very wrong perception about what is happening to global poverty.",
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                    }
                ],
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                "alt": "",
                "size": "wide",
                "type": "image",
                "filename": "Public-perception-of-Change-in-poverty.png",
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            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "Most people don\u2019t know that child mortality is declining in poor countries",
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                    }
                ],
                "type": "heading",
                "level": 4,
                "parseErrors": []
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                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "We are not just wrong about global poverty. In the same survey people were asked: \u201cIn the last 20 years, has the child mortality rate in developing regions increased, decreased or stayed about the same?\u201d",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "Here again the data is very clear. The child mortality rate in both the less- and least-developed countries has ",
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                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/child-mortality-around-the-world?country=OWID_WRL+Less%20developed%20regions+Least%20developed%20countries+More%20developed%20regions",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "halved",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " in the last 20 years.{ref}In fact not only the average child mortality rate has fallen, but the child mortality rate has fallen in all countries (except for two very small ones).{/ref}",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "spanType": "span-newline"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": "The survey once more shows that most people are not aware of this. On average only 39% know that the mortality of children is falling. And what greater achievement has humanity ever achieved than making it more and more likely that children survive the first, vulnerable years of their lives and sparing parents the sadness of losing their babies? This has to be one of humanity\u2019s greatest achievements.",
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                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "And just as with knowledge about extreme poverty, the share of uninformed people is much higher in the rich countries of the world. So is our work at Our World in Data needed? This survey shows that few Senegalese or Kenyans will learn something new; but if you have some friends in the US or Japan you will probably help them if you ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://www.facebook.com/OurWorldinData/",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "share our work",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ".",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
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                "alt": "",
                "size": "wide",
                "type": "image",
                "filename": "Public-perception-of-Change-in-u5mr.png",
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            },
            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "How does this matter?",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "type": "heading",
                "level": 3,
                "parseErrors": []
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            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "1. Misperceptions about specific trends reinforces general discontent about how the world is changing",
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                            }
                        ],
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "The widespread ignorance about these truly important changes in the world feeds into a general discontent about how the world is changing. When YouGov asked in a separate survey the more general question: \u201cAll things considered, do you think the world is getting better or worse?\u201d there were very few who gave a positive answer. In France and Australia only 3%(!) think the world is getting better.",
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "And again we see that in poorer countries the share of people who answer positively is higher.{ref}",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/real-gdp-per-capita-pennwt?tab=chart&country=AUS~CHN~FRA~DEU~IDN~THA",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "This chart",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " shows the income level difference between the very negative rich countries and the somewhat less negative poorer countries.{/ref}",
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                    }
                ],
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            {
                "alt": "",
                "size": "wide",
                "type": "image",
                "filename": "Optimistic-about-the-future.png",
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                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "2. Misperceptions reveal a failure of our media and our education systems",
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                    }
                ],
                "type": "heading",
                "level": 4,
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "What should we make of the fact that many perceive the world to be stagnating or even declining in global health or poverty while we are in fact achieving the most rapid improvements in our history in these very same aspects?",
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                    }
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "First, this is simply sad. It means that we think worse of the world than we should. We think more poorly than we should about the time we are living in, and we think more poorly than we should about what people around the world are achieving right now.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Second it makes clear that we are doing a terrible job at understanding and communicating what is happening in the world. Particularly in rich countries the education systems and media are failing to convey an accurate perspective on how the world is changing \u2013 arguably one of the main expectations we should have of them.{ref}This finding is the starting point for the recently published book \u2019",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://www.gapminder.org/factfulness-book/",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Factfulness",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": "\u2019 coauthored by Anna Rosling R\u00f6nnlund, and Hans and Ola Rosling. The authors go on to explain that our perception is so very wrong because our minds are paying attention to extremes \u2013 the very richest, very poorest, most violent and most corrupt aspects of our world \u2013 so that we end up with what they call the \u2018overdramatic worldview\u2019, which is pieced together by all the most dramatic aspects of our world, but has a massive blind spot for the world that is the reality of most people in the world. The overdramatic worldview leaves us with a picture of the world that includes all the stories that are in fact rare (the fact that they are extraordinary is why they are reported in the media), but which has no understanding of what is actually common.{/ref}",
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                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "3. We are not just negative about the past, we are also pessimistic about the future",
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                ],
                "type": "heading",
                "level": 4,
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Our perception of how the world is changing matters for what we believe is possible in the future.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "If we ask people about what is possible for the world, then most of us answer \u2018not much\u2019. This chart documents the survey answers to the question \u201cover the next 15 years, do you think living conditions for people around the world get better or worse?\u201d. \u00a0More than half of the people expect stagnation or that things will be getting worse. Fortunately, the places in which people currently have the worst living conditions are more optimistic about what is possible in the coming years.",
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "On the whole, the findings from the surveys are clear: we do not only believe that the world is stagnating or declining, we also expect that this perceived stagnation or decline will continue into the future.",
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "This pessimism about what is possible for the world matters politically. Those who don\u2019t expect that things get better in the first place will be less likely to demand actions that can bring positive developments about. The few optimists on the other hand will want to see the necessary changes for the improvements they are expecting.",
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                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "Knowledge about what we have achieved leaves no place for cynicism",
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                    {
                        "text": "Finally the survey suggests that there is a connection between our perception of the past and our hope for the future. This chart shows that the degree of optimism about the future differs hugely by the level of people\u2019s knowledge about global development.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
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                        "text": "Those that were most pessimistic about the future tended to have the least basic knowledge on how the world has changed. Of those who could not give a single correct answer to the survey questions, only 17% expect the world to be better off in the future. At the other end of the spectrum, those who had very good knowledge about how the world has changed were the most optimistic about the changes that we can achieve in the next 15 years.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "This is a correlation and as we know, correlation does not imply causation. To understand whether there is a causal link we would need to know whether getting a more accurate picture of how the world is changing makes one ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "change",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-italic"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " one\u2019s belief about what will happen in the future. Unfortunately I am not aware of a study that looked into this question.{ref}Please do ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://www.maxroser.com/about/",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "get in contact",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " if you are aware of a study that investigates this question and I will update this section of the post \u2013 and I\u2019d be really grateful as I would very much like to understand this link.{/ref}",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
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                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Of course no one can know how the future turns out and there is nothing that would make the progress we have seen in recent decades continue inevitably and not every global development pessimist is ill-informed. But what we do know from these surveys is that these two views go together: Those who are pessimistic are much more likely to have little understanding about what is happening in the world.",
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                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Obviously the question then is, why is it that better informed people are more optimistic about the future?",
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "As we have seen, being wrong about global development mostly means being too negative about how the world is changing. Being wrong in these questions means having a cynical worldview. Cynicism suggests that nothing can be done to improve our situation and every effort to do so is bound to fail. Our history, the cynics say, is a history of failures and what we can expect for the future is more of the same.",
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                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "In contrast to this, answering the questions correctly means that you understand that things can change. An accurate understanding of how global health and poverty are improving leaves no space for cynicism. Those who are optimistic about the future can base their view on the knowledge that it is possible to change the world for the better, because they know that we did.",
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                "alt": "",
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                "filename": "Share-who-believe-that-the-world-will-be-better_by-knowledge-about-the-world.png",
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            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "Declinism",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "type": "heading",
                "level": 3,
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "Declinism and development",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
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                        "text": "Declinism refers to the belief that a country or some other institution is in decline. Declinism was a prevalent feature of British political and economic history, whereby the decline of Britain as a world power was seen as the result of internal failures rather than international forces or global convergence. David Edgerton writes: \"Declinism is beginning to appear as one of the last vestiges of imperial grandeur: for declinism holds, implicitly but clearly, that if Britain had done better it would have remained a much larger player on the world stage.\"{ref}David Edgerton. \"The Decline of Declinism.\" ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "The Business History Review",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-italic"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ", Vol. 71, No. 2 (Summer, 1997), pp. 201-206. Available online at ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "http://www.jstor.org/stable/3116157",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "http://www.jstor.org/stable/3116157",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": "{/ref}",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": " Today declinism in the United States is fashionable with many politicians. Donald Trump's campaign slogan for the 2016 Republican nomination election was\u00a0\"Make America Great Again!\"",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
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                        "text": "The major flaw in much of the declinist narrative is the failure to distinguish between absolute and relative changes. Between 2010-14, US real GDP growth rates have fluctuated between 1.5-2.5% and yet, the US economy was recently overtaken by the Chinese economy measured in PPP-adjusted terms.{ref}For more information on PPP-adjustments, please visit the ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/economic-growth/",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "economic growth page",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ".{/ref}",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": " In many ways this may capture the reason why the most developed nations tend to believe that their economy is in decline: relative decline is interpreted as absolute decline. Unsurprisingly, new EU member states tend to be much more optimistic about the future. The four largest economies -- the UK, France, Germany and Italy -- are the most pessimistic. This pattern persists when considering economies at different stages of development: developing countries are more optimistic about the future, while developed ones tend to be pessimistic.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                ],
                "parseErrors": []
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            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "Optimism about the future of the next generation by country - Pew Research Center{ref}Global Publics: Economic Conditions Are Bad. Pew Research Center (2015). Available online ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "http://www.pewglobal.org/2015/07/23/global-publics-economic-conditions-are-bad/",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "here",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ".{/ref}",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "type": "heading",
                "level": 6,
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "alt": "Optimism surveys on the next generation by country",
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                "type": "image",
                "filename": "ourworldindata_optimism-surveys-on-the-next-generation-by-country.png",
                "parseErrors": []
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            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "Declinism and Age: The Reminiscence Bump",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "type": "heading",
                "level": 4,
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "One interesting explanation for declinism is that it is the result of the way we encode memories and what we remember. Firstly, researchers have long established a robust pattern in the age at which we retain the most memories. In old age, memories from our lives are not evenly distributed but instead concentrated in two regions. These regions are (1) memories formed in adolescence and early adulthood, between the ages of 10-30, and (2) recent memory of events. The following figure is a useful representation of this distribution.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
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            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "Lifespan memory retrieval curve - Wikipedia{ref}",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reminiscence_bump",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Reminiscence bump, Wikipedia",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ".",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "spanType": "span-newline"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " Journal references:",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "spanType": "span-newline"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " Hyland, Diane T., and Adele M. Ackerman. \"Reminiscence and autobiographical memory in the study of the personal past.\" ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Journal of Gerontology",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-italic"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " 43, no. 2 (1988): P35-P39. Available online ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "http://geronj.oxfordjournals.org/content/43/2/P35.short",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "here",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ".",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "spanType": "span-newline"
                    },
                    {
                        "spanType": "span-newline"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": "Jansari, Ashok, and Alan J. Parkin. \"Things that go bump in your life: Explaining the reminiscence bump in autobiographical memory.\" ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Psychology and Aging",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-italic"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " 11, no. 1 (1996): 85. Available online ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/0882-7974.11.1.85",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "here",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ".",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "spanType": "span-newline"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " {/ref}",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "type": "heading",
                "level": 6,
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "alt": "Lifespan Retrieval Curve",
                "size": "wide",
                "type": "image",
                "filename": "ourworldindata_lifespan-retrieval-curve.jpg",
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Secondly, research finds that as we get older we tend to have \u2013 on average \u2013 fewer negative experiences and that we are more likely to remember the positive ones over the negative ones.{ref}Mara Mather, Laura L. Carstensen, Aging and motivated cognition: the positivity effect in attention and memory, Trends in Cognitive Sciences, Volume 9, Issue 10, October 2005, Pages 496-502, ISSN 1364-6613. Available online ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tics.2005.08.005",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "here",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ".{/ref}",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": " This effect combined with the reminiscence bump could explain why declinism exists among older generations, and why your parents could never stand the music you listened to! The universality of this effect is illustrated\u00a0by Harvey Daniels with the use of these quotes about the decline of the English language{ref}Daniels, Harvey. ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Famous last words: The American language crisis reconsidered",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-italic"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ". Southern Illinois University Press, 1983.{/ref}:",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
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                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "\"The common language is disappearing. It is slowly being crushed to death under the weight of verbal conglomerate, a pseudospeech at once both pretentious and feeble, that is created daily by millions of blunders and inaccuracies in grammar, syntax, idiom, metaphor, logic, and common sense.... In the history of modern English there is no period in which such victory over thought-in-speech has been so widespread. Nor in the past has the general idiom, on which we depend for our very understanding of vital matters, been so seriously distorted.\" (A. Tibbets and C. Tibbets, ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "What's Happening to American English?",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ", ",
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                                "children": [
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                                        "text": "1978",
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                                "text": ")",
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                            {
                                "text": "\"From every college in the country goes up the cry, 'Our freshmen can't spell, can't punctuate.' Every high school is in disrepair because its pupils are so ignorant of the merest rudiments.\" (C. H. Ward, ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "1917",
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                                "text": ")",
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                                "text": "\"Unless the present progress of change [is] arrested...there can be no doubt that, in another century, the dialect of the Americans will become utterly unintelligible to an Englishman...\" (Captain Thomas Hamilton, ",
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                                "children": [
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                                        "text": "1833",
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                                "text": ")",
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                                "text": "\"Our language is degenerating very fast.\" (James Beattie, ",
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                                "children": [
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                                        "text": "1785",
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                        "text": "In the light of this research on human nature it is then not surprising\u00a0that one of the earliest Sumerian tablets discovered and deciphered by modern scholars was a complaint by a teacher about his students' writing ability.",
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "Why\u00a0does realism matter?",
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                        "text": "There are three main reasons we should try to combat social pessimism and declinism. The first reason is simple; indicators of living standards are significantly improving around the world. By monitoring and researching these changes we can identify ways in which progress can be achieved. Over the long-run, say 50-100 years, human progress has been staggering with the benefits not confined to the richest or most powerful. The second reason is that if our perceptions of the reality are wrong, we can end up prioritising the wrong things and making ineffectual change. Finally, being optimistic can be good for your health, while having a pessimistic outlook can be detrimental to your health.",
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                        "text": "Perception and Priority",
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                        "text": "The public perception of these indicators matters because it directly influences the priorities of voters in democratic countries and politicians. If, as in the example above, the public believes crime is increasing, it is likely that it\u00a0demands more policing not for a reason grounded in reality, but for an imagined worsening of the society they live it.\u00a0This is\u00a0one reason why incorrect public perceptions can be a problem.",
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                        "text": "The following figures underline just how sizable these effects can be. The first shows how spending on crime has moved with the public's confidence in the government's ability to crack down on crime. As the public's confidence fell, spending on crime increased and recorded crime fell; without any uptick in the public's confidence.",
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "Public confidence, recorded crime and government spending in the UK, 1997-2007 - Ipsos MORI (2008){ref}Closing The Gaps: Crime and Public Perceptions. Ipsos MORI (2008). Available ",
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                        "url": "https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13600860801924899",
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                                "text": "here",
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                        "text": ".{/ref}",
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                "alt": "Spending on crime, crime levels and public confidence - Ipsos MORI",
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "The media matters for pessimism",
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                        "text": "One contributing factor to\u00a0some of the widespread misinformation\u00a0seems to be the content consumed through media channels.",
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                        "text": "Of those who believed crime was increasing, more than half suggested that information on TV was a reason they believed there was more crime. In addition to this, almost\u00a0half suggested that what they read in newspapers was\u00a0a factor.",
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                        "text": "TV and newspapers are largest factors driving crime perceptions in the UK, 2007 - Ipsos MORI{ref}Closing The Gaps: Crime and Public Perceptions. Ipsos MORI (2008). Available ",
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                        "url": "https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13600860801924899",
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                                "text": "here",
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                        "text": ".{/ref}",
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                "alt": "Why do people think there is more crime? - Ipsos MORI",
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                    {
                        "text": "Research conducted by Stefano DellaVigna and Ethan Kaplan highlights the degree to which the media can influence voting behaviour.{ref}DellaVigna, Stefano, and Ethan Daniel Kaplan. \"The Fox News Effect: Media Bias and Voting.\" ",
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                        "children": [
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                                "text": "The Quarterly Journal of Economics",
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                    },
                    {
                        "text": " 122, no. 3 (2007): 1187-1234. Available online ",
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                        "url": "http://eml.berkeley.edu/~sdellavi/wp/FoxVoteQJEAug07.pdf",
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                                "text": "here",
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                        "text": ".{/ref}",
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                        "text": " DellaVigna and Kaplan looked at how the introduction of Fox News between 1996 and 2000 in different towns affected voting patterns and turnout in the Presidential election of 2000. They find \"a significant effect of the introduction of Fox News on the vote share in Presidential elections between 1996 and 2000. Republicans gained 0.4 to 0.7 percentage points in the towns that broadcast Fox News. Fox News also affected voter turnout and the Republican vote share in the Senate. Our estimates imply that Fox News convinced 3 to 28 percent of its viewers to vote Republican, depending on the audience measure. The Fox News effect could be a temporary learning effect for rational voters, or a permanent effect for nonrational voters subject to persuasion.\"",
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                        "text": "Another dimension to this debate is the extent to which the perceived terrorism threat affects the willingness of individuals to trade-off civil liberties.{ref}Davis, Darren W., and Brian D. Silver. \"Civil liberties vs. security: Public opinion in the context of the terrorist attacks on America.\" American Journal of Political Science 48, no. 1 (2004): 28-46. Available online ",
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                        "url": "https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.0092-5853.2004.00054.x",
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                                "text": "here",
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                        "text": ".{/ref}",
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                        "text": " Darren Davis and Brian Silver find that \"the greater people\u2019s sense of threat, the lower their support for civil liberties.\" This effect is attenuated by the people's trust in government but fairly consistent across nearly all political affiliations and demographics.",
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "Things\u00a0are getting better and it is good to know that",
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                        "text": "With all the negative news stories and sensationalism that exists in the media it may be hard to believe things are improving. These events can be contextualized as short-term fluctuations in an otherwise positive global trend.",
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                        "text": "Quantifying this progress and identifying its causes will help researchers develop successful strategies to combat the world's problems. We discuss many important improvements in our ",
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                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/a-history-of-global-living-conditions-in-5-charts",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "history of global living conditions",
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                        "text": ".",
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "The relation between health and optimism",
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                        "text": "There is a large literature that links an optimistic outlook on life to positive health outcomes.\u00a0While it is interesting to read and think about this, one should be prudent not to over-interpret these findings and consider carefully\u00a0if it is possible to think of these relationships as causal:",
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                        "text": "Studies have found a link between an individual's optimism/pessimism (measured by surveys) and their health outcomes. Julia Boehm and Laura Kubzansky reviewed over 200 published studies to investigate the link between a positive psychological outlook (optimism, life satisfaction and happiness) and cardiovascular health.{ref}Boehm, Julia K., and Laura D. Kubzansky. \"The heart's content: the association between positive psychological well-being and cardiovascular health.\" ",
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                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Psychological bulletin",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-italic"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " 138, no. 4 (2012): 655. Available online ",
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                        "url": "http://psycnet.apa.org/journals/bul/138/4/655/",
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                                "text": "here",
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                        "text": ".{/ref}",
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                        "text": " They found that a positive psychological outlook was strongly associated with a reduced risk of cardiovascular disease: \u201cFor example, the most optimistic individuals had an approximately 50% reduced risk of experiencing an initial cardiovascular event compared to their less optimistic peers.\"{ref}Positive feelings may help protect cardiovascular health. Harvard School of Public Health (2012). Available online ",
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                        "url": "http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2012-04/hsop-pfm041312.php",
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                                "text": "here",
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                        "text": ".{/ref}",
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                        "text": "Boehm et al. (2011) also find a link between optimism and the composition of cholesterol in the blood. Optimistic individuals had higher levels of good cholesterol and lower levels of triglycerides.{ref}Boehm, Julia K., Christopher Peterson, Mika Kivimaki, and Laura Kubzansky. \"A prospective study of positive psychological well-being and coronary heart disease.\" ",
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                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Health Psychology",
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                    {
                        "text": " 30, no. 3 (2011): 259. Available online ",
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                        "url": "http://psycnet.apa.org/journals/hea/30/3/259/",
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                                "text": "here",
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                        "text": ".{/ref}",
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                        "text": "Further research using data from the Women's Health Initiative found that over an eight year period, the most optimistic women had a 9% lower risk of developing coronary heart disease and a 14% lower risk of dying from any cause.{ref}Tindle, Hilary A., Yue-Fang Chang, Lewis H. Kuller, JoAnn E. Manson, Jennifer G. Robinson, Milagros C. Rosal, Greg J. Siegle, and Karen A. Matthews. \"Optimism, cynical hostility, and incident coronary heart disease and mortality in the Women\u2019s Health Initiative.\" ",
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                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Circulation",
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                    },
                    {
                        "text": " 120, no. 8 (2009): 656-662. Available online ",
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                    },
                    {
                        "url": "http://circ.ahajournals.org/content/120/8/656.abstract",
                        "children": [
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                                "text": "here",
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                    {
                        "text": ".{/ref} Similar results were also found by researchers writing in the ",
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                    },
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Archives of General Psychiatry",
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                    {
                        "text": "; using data from the Netherlands, they found that the most optimistic individuals had a 55% reduced risk of all-cause mortality and a 23% reduced risk of cardiovascular death.",
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            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "The future is always bad \u2013 and always was",
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                "type": "heading",
                "level": 2,
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            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "End of the world predictions",
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                        "text": "Dire predictions for the future are nothing new. Indeed we can go back centuries or even millennia and find plenty of examples of pessimistic accounts of the future of the world.",
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                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "This infographic shows a series of\u00a0predictions for the year in which the world will\u00a0end\u00a0\u2013 from religious figures to scientists like John Napier and Isaac Newton.",
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                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "End of the world predictions \u2013 The Economist{ref}\"Doomsdays.\" The Economist (2012). Available online ",
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                    },
                    {
                        "url": "http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2012/12/daily-chart-11",
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                                "text": "here",
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                        "text": ".{/ref}",
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                "alt": "20121222_woc6530",
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                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "The future\u00a0of the world in literature",
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                        "text": "Predictions of dire futures are also common in fictional literature.",
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "This beautiful visualization presents a time of\u00a0predictions of the future as foretold in novels.",
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            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "The future as foretold in the past \u2013 Giorgia Lupi and Accurat{ref}This infographic is the work of Giorgia Lupi, and more of her work can be found at ",
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                        "url": "http://giorgialupi.com",
                        "children": [
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                                "text": "http://giorgialupi.com",
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                        "text": ".{/ref}",
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        ],
        "type": "article",
        "title": "Optimism and Pessimism",
        "authors": [
            "Hannah Ritchie"
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                        "text": "Now in GDoc: https://owid.cloud/admin/gdocs/1Ame1LHwda2O45NasOLFDDbWY3HWaTAToB0FbmYdLVwI/preview",
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        "type": "article",
        "title": "Waste Management",
        "authors": [
            "Hannah Ritchie",
            "Edouard Mathieu"
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{
    "id": "wp-56007",
    "slug": "choosing-our-topics-and-metrics",
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                "type": "text",
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                        "text": "On ",
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                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Our World in Data",
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                        "text": ", we present thousands of metrics on hundreds of topics.",
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                                "text": " \u2014 can display its information well. For example, our maps are set up to visualize national data, and currently cannot display metrics at the sub-national level or gridded data.",
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                        "text": "The topics and metrics we present are not set in stone, and we keep thinking about which ones to add. So if you think a topic or metric fits the criteria outlined here, please reach out to us at ",
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                        "children": [
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                                "text": "Acknowledgements",
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                        "text": "I thank Edouard Mathieu, Esteban Ortiz-Ospina, Hannah Ritchie, and Max Roser for their very helpful comments and ideas about how to improve this article.",
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        "title": "How we choose which topics to work on, and which metrics to provide",
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        "excerpt": "On Our World in Data, we present thousands of metrics on hundreds of topics. How do we choose them?",
        "dateline": "February 27, 2023",
        "subtitle": "On Our World in Data, we present thousands of metrics on hundreds of topics. How do we choose them?",
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                                "text": "IUCN ",
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                                        "text": "Red List of Threatened Species",
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                        "text": " is regarded as the definitive source of extinction risk. Every year, the IUCN publishes its latest assessment of the status of each evaluated species.",
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                        "text": "In this article, we look at how species are categorized and assessed for their extinction risk.",
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                        "text": "The 9 categories of extinction risk",
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                                "text": "Each species is assessed against a standardized list of criteria.{ref}Here we use the term \u2018species\u2019 to talk about different groups of organisms. This is the main level that wildlife is evaluated for extinction risk. But, the IUCN also uses the broader term \u2018taxon\u2019 which applies at the species level or sub-species level. This means that the framework can be applied to evaluate extinction risk at multiple levels.{/ref} Based on these answers, a species is assigned to one of ",
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                                        "text": "nine categories",
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                                "text": "How these categories relate to each other is shown in the visualization.",
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                                "text": "The first two categories are about species that we can\u2019t say much about.",
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                                "text": "The first question researchers ask is whether we know enough about a species to evaluate their status. If a species doesn\u2019t meet this criterion, they are not evaluated and removed from the assessment process. As part of the IUCN\u2019s aims, each species is re-evaluated every five to ten years; if our understanding has developed by this point, then a species can be evaluated later.",
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                                "text": " For some species, we do not have sufficient data to assess their risk of extinction. We might know a lot about their biology, but without adequate data on their populations and occurrence, a species\u2019 extinction risk can\u2019t be evaluated.",
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                                "text": "That leaves us with seven categories where we have enough data to make an assessment.",
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                                "text": "Researchers draw on a large number of extensive studies of a species\u2019 population size, range, and habitat, and how these are changing over time. Later we\u2019ll look at the specific criteria that they\u2019re evaluated against.",
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                                "text": "These are the seven categories, from extinct through to species that are abundant and of little concern:",
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                                "text": " species is one for which there is no reasonable doubt that the last individual has died. Researchers declare this when no individuals are found in exhaustive studies of its known or expected habitats for a long period of time. This includes the golden toad and the Japanese sea lion.",
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                                "text": "species fits the criteria for \u2018Extinct\u2019 \u2013 exhaustive surveys have found no individuals in its expected habitats \u2013 but individuals still exist in captivity or as naturalized populations outside of its normal, historical range.",
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                                "text": "That then leaves us with five categories by which species are assessed for their risk of extinction.",
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                                "text": "species faces an extremely high risk of extinction. As explained in the next section, this is based on the criteria of having a very small population size, a very rapid ",
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                                "text": " in population, or a large restriction in the range of a species. One of the metrics that categorizes a critically endangered species is if quantitative analysis shows that there is a greater than 50% chance that it goes extinct in the wild within 10 years. This does not necessarily apply to species classified as critically endangered under other criteria.",
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                                "text": " species faces a very high risk of extinction. As explained in the next section, this is based on the criteria of having a very small population size, a very rapid ",
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                                "text": " in population, or a large restriction in the range of a species. One of the metrics that categorizes an endangered species is if quantitative analysis shows that there is a greater than 20% chance that it goes extinct in the wild within 20 years. Again, this does not necessarily apply to species classified as endangered under other criteria.",
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                                "text": " species faces a high risk of extinction. One of the metrics that categorizes a vulnerable species is if quantitative analysis shows that there is a greater than 10% chance that it goes extinct in the wild within 100 years.",
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                                "text": " species does not qualify as Critically Endangered, Endangered, or Vulnerable now, but according to the researchers\u2019 assessment, it is close to meeting this definition soon, based on recent trends.",
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                                "text": " species is widespread, abundant, and not threatened with extinction.",
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                                "text": "The IUCN will often discuss species as being ",
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                                "text": ". That\u2019s the most commonly reported metric. On ",
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                                        "text": "Our World in Data",
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                                "text": ", we show both the ",
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                                "text": " or ",
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                                        "text": "share",
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                                "text": " of studied species that are \u2018threatened with extinction\u2019 according to the IUCN.",
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                                "text": " are those classified as either ",
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                                "text": ". It is the sum of species in each of these three categories.",
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                        "text": "How do researchers assess the risk of extinction?",
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                        "text": "We\u2019ve covered all the categories that species are classified into. But how do researchers arrive at the categorization? How do researchers decide how vulnerable a species is to extinction?",
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                        "text": "Species are evaluated across four key metrics. It\u2019s important to note that this doesn\u2019t include ",
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                        "text": " possible way to assess the future health of a species: aspects such as food supplies or future hunting threats aren\u2019t defined as measure risks.",
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                        "text": "Any of these would indicate that a species is at risk:",
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                                "text": "If the population size is very small.",
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                                "text": " in population size (regardless of its total size).",
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                                "text": "The geographic range of the species \u2013 the area or region it lives in \u2013 is small and declining.",
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                        "text": "Within each of these measurements, researchers set thresholds that detail whether a species is vulnerable, endangered, or critically endangered.\u00a0",
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                        "text": "Take metric (1): the size of the population. A species is considered \u2018Critically Endangered\u2019 if there are fewer than 50 mature individuals globally. It\u2019s \u2018Endangered\u2019 if there are fewer than 250 individuals, and \u2018Vulnerable\u2019 if there are fewer than 1,000.",
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                        "text": "Or metric (4): the geographic range of the species. A species is considered \u2018Critically Endangered\u2019 if its area of occupancy is less than 10 square kilometers (km",
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                                "text": "2",
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                        "text": "). It\u2019s \u2018Endangered\u2019 if this area is less than 500 km",
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                        "text": ", and \u2018Vulnerable\u2019 if it\u2019s less than 2,000 km",
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                        "text": ".{ref}To be put into any of these categories, a species also has to meet 2 of these 3 conditions: its habitats are very fragmented or small in number; have a continued decline in its geographical range; or have extreme fluctuations in its range.{/ref}",
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                        "text": "The final metric that researchers use to classify species is the probabilistic assessment on the likelihood of extinction within a given time period. For example, a critically endangered species is expected to have a greater than 50% chance of extinction within 10 years if threats are not reduced, and protections put in place.",
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                        "text": "You can find a complete list of the criteria for each extinction risk category in the ",
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                        "url": "https://portals.iucn.org/library/sites/library/files/documents/RL-2001-001-2nd.pdf",
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                                "text": "IUCN\u2019s definition guide",
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                        "text": ".These assessments are conducted and prepared by the IUCN\u2019s network of specialist groups: ",
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                        "url": "https://iucn.org/our-union/commissions/group/1445",
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                                "text": "this includes ",
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                        "text": "10,500 volunteer experts across more than 160 Specialist Groups, Conservation Committees, and Task Forces. There is, for example, an ",
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                        "url": "https://iucn.org/our-union/commissions/group/iucn-ssc-african-elephant-specialist-group",
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                                "text": "IUCN African Elephant Specialist Group",
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                        "text": " that focuses on the monitoring of African elephant populations. These volunteers and expert groups do not necessarily do all of the original research themselves: they will often form their assessments based on peer-reviewed academic literature conducted by other researchers.",
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                        "text": "Assessments of wildlife populations can be uncertain",
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                        "text": "The number of ",
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                                "text": "described species",
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                        ],
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                        "text": " in the world is now over 2 million (with more than 1 million being insects, which the IUCN does not assess).{ref}The total ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
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                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/how-many-species-are-there",
                        "children": [
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                                "text": "number of species",
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                            }
                        ],
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                    },
                    {
                        "text": " is estimated to be much higher \u2013 widely-cited figures are in the range of 8 to 9 million.{/ref} The IUCN has assessed more than 150,000 species for their extinction risk. A large number, but a small fraction of the total.",
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                        "text": "They aim to ",
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                        "url": "https://ipbes.net/policy-support/tools-instruments/iucn-red-list-threatened-species",
                        "children": [
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                                "text": "re-evaluate every species",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                        ],
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                    },
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                        "text": " in a peer-reviewed process every five years \u2013 every ten years at most. Many at-risk species are monitored and evaluated more frequently. That\u2019s an incredible achievement. But it\u2019s still just a fraction of the species that exist. We don\u2019t know the extinction risk for most of the world\u2019s species.",
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "Additionally, the uncertainty can be high for the species that the IUCN researchers have evaluated. The dynamics of wildlife populations can change quickly; can vary a lot from one location to another; and measurements are prone to error.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "In this case, a species might be classified as \u2018data deficient\u2019. But often the data is deemed adequate, just with a higher level of uncertainty.",
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                        "text": "A species moving from one category to another does not always mean a dramatic improvement or regression in its health. It can simply be a re-evaluation with better data.",
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                        "text": "Despite these challenges, the IUCN Red List provides an essential resource to understand the extinction risk of our world\u2019s species. It highlights which species are most at-risk, so we can protect them.",
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                ],
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        ],
        "type": "article",
        "title": "What does it mean for a species to be at risk of extinction?",
        "authors": [
            "Hannah Ritchie"
        ],
        "excerpt": "We need to focus on the most threatened species to protect them from extinction. But what does it mean for a species to be at risk, and how is it measured?",
        "dateline": "February 20, 2023",
        "subtitle": "We need to focus on the most threatened species to protect them from extinction. But what does it mean for a species to be at risk, and how is it measured?",
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{
    "id": "wp-55521",
    "slug": "engels-law-food-spending",
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                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Richer people tend to spend more money on food.",
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                        "value": [
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                                "text": "We see this relationship when we look at data on food expenditure from across the world.",
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                        "value": [
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                                "text": "In the chart you see food expenditure plotted against total consumer expenditure per person. Total consumer expenditure is any personal expenditure on goods and services.",
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                                "text": "On the y-axis, we have the average amount of money spent on food per person, in countries across the world.{ref}This data comes from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Economic Research Service, which estimates this for countries where available market data is sufficient.{/ref} This measures money spent on food consumed at home \u2013 from stores and supermarkets. The source ",
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                            {
                                "children": [
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                                        "text": "does not ",
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                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "include food eaten out-of-home, from restaurants and cafes (however, that would be useful data to have). Tobacco and alcoholic beverages are also excluded.",
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                            {
                                "text": "On the x-axis, we have a measure of prosperity, total expenditure. Expenditure tells us how much disposable income people have to spend on goods and services such as food, housing, education, health, and leisure activities. It\u2019s important to ensure that we can afford all of the essentials that give us a high and comfortable standard of living.",
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                        "value": [
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                                "text": "Countries which are poor \u2013 and where therefore people\u2019s expenditure is very low \u2013 can be found, richer countries are further towards the right. This is shown on a log axis by default, but you can change it to a linear scale on the interactive chart.",
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                    {
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                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Both metrics are measured in US dollars per person per year.",
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                                "text": "What we see is a strong positive relationship: where expenditures are high people tend to spend more money on food",
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                                "text": "At expenditures below $5,000, the average person tends to spend less than $1,000 on food. At expenditures above $10,000, it's common for the average to be $2,000 or more per person per year.",
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "For richer people, food makes up a smaller share of their expenditure",
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                                "text": "The amount of money spent on food might increase in absolute terms \u2014 as we saw in the previous chart \u2014 it falls as a share of people\u2019s expenditure. This is what the following chart shows.",
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                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "In the chart, we\u2019ve plotted food spending against total expenditure again, but this time food spending is measured as a percentage of someone\u2019s total expenditure.{ref}Again, this data comes from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Economic Research Service, which estimates this for countries where available market data is sufficient.{/ref}",
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                                "text": "In countries with expenditures below $10,000, it\u2019s common for people to spend a quarter or more on food.",
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                                "text": "As total spending rises, a smaller and smaller share goes toward food. At high expenditures, it\u2019s common for people to spend 10% or less. This is despite the fact that they spend ",
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                                        "text": "more",
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                                "text": " on food in absolute terms.",
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                                "text": "Both of these points are positive signs for consumers. Spending more on food in dollar terms often means that people are eating more diverse diets. At low incomes, people tend to ",
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                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://owid.cloud/grapher/share-of-energy-from-cereals-roots-and-tubers-vs-gdp-per-capita",
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                                        "text": "rely on cheaper staple crops",
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                                "text": " such as cereals and tubers for most of their calories. As people get richer they can afford other foods such as fruits, vegetables, legumes, meats, and dairy products which have a wider range of micronutrients, protein, and fats.",
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                                "text": "Spending less of our money on food means we have more disposable income for other essentials such as education, healthcare, and housing.",
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "Engel\u2019s Law: how food spending changes with income",
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                                "text": "That gives us two important insights into food spending.",
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                                "text": "First, richer people tend to spend more money on food in absolute terms. Second, food tends to account for a smaller percentage of their total expenditure.",
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                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "The chart illustrates this relationship: in absolute terms spending on food increases with income (shown in purple), in percentage terms it decreases (shown in green).",
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                                "text": "Combine them and we get a relationship called \u2018",
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                            {
                                "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Engel%27s_law",
                                "children": [
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                                        "text": "Engel\u2019s Law",
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                            {
                                "text": "\u2019: as household income (and expenditure) increases, the percentage that is spent on food decreases, but the absolute amount spent on food increases.\u00a0",
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                                "text": "Research has shown that this relationship holds true ",
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                                "children": [
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                                        "text": "within",
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                            {
                                "text": " countries: studies looking at household expenditures in South Africa and China, for example, found the same pattern.{ref}Mulamba, K. C. (2022). ",
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                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-022-01454-4",
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                                        "text": "Relationship between households\u2019 share of food expenditure and income across South African districts: a multilevel regression analysis",
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                                ],
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                            },
                            {
                                "text": ". Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, 9(1), 1-11.",
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                            {
                                "text": "Chen, M. (2022). Engel\u2019s law in China: Some new evidence. Review of Development Economics.{/ref}",
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "Keep reading at ",
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                                "text": "Our World in Data...",
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                        "text": "In a ",
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                                        "text": "related article",
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                        "text": ", I look at what happens at the bottom of the global income distribution: it\u2019s estimated that around three billion people can\u2019t afford a healthy, diverse diet even when they spend most (or all) of their income on food. We want them to be able to spend more on food so they can have a diversified diet, and we don\u2019t want them to have to spend all of their money to achieve this.",
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        "type": "article",
        "title": "Engel's Law: Richer people spend more money on food, but it makes up a smaller share of their income",
        "authors": [
            "Hannah Ritchie"
        ],
        "excerpt": "How does spending on food change as incomes rise?",
        "dateline": "January 19, 2023",
        "subtitle": "How does spending on food change as incomes rise?",
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{
    "id": "wp-55458",
    "slug": "democracy-redesign",
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        "type": "article",
        "title": "We published a redesign of our work on Democracy",
        "authors": [
            "Bastian Herre"
        ],
        "excerpt": "We published a major redesign of our work on Democracy. Explore all our data and research in one place.",
        "dateline": "January 26, 2023",
        "subtitle": "We published a major redesign of our work on Democracy. Explore all our data and research in one place.",
        "sidebar-toc": false,
        "featured-image": "Thumbnail-Democracy_Blue_01.png"
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    "createdAt": "2023-01-13T09:28:16.000Z",
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{
    "id": "wp-55179",
    "slug": "biodiversity-redesign",
    "content": {
        "toc": [],
        "body": [],
        "type": "article",
        "title": "We just published a redesign of our work on Biodiversity",
        "authors": [
            "Hannah Ritchie",
            "Fiona Spooner"
        ],
        "excerpt": "We just published a major redesign of our work on Biodiversity. Explore all our data and research in one place.",
        "dateline": "December 20, 2022",
        "subtitle": "We just published a major redesign of our work on Biodiversity. Explore all our data and research in one place.",
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    "createdAt": "2022-12-19T17:56:03.000Z",
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{
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    "slug": "vdem-human-rights-data",
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                        "text": "Measuring the state of human rights across the world helps us understand the extent to which people have fundamental personal and civil rights and freedoms.",
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                        "text": "But it can be challenging to measure how well-protected these human rights are.. People do not always agree on what rights are fundamental. These rights \u2014 such as whether people are free to voice their opinions \u2014 are difficult to define and assess. The judgement of experts is to some degree subjective. They may disagree about a specific characteristic or how several characteristics can be reduced into a single measure.",
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                        "text": "How do researchers address these challenges and measure how much people\u2019s human rights are protected?",
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                "text": [
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                        "children": [
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                                "text": "What are the Varieties of Democracy project?",
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                        "text": "In some of our work on democracy, we rely on data published by the ",
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                        "url": "https://www.v-dem.net/vdemds.html",
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                                "text": "Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) project",
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                        "text": ".{ref}Coppedge, Michael, John Gerring, Carl Henrik Knutsen, Staffan I. Lindberg, Jan Teorell, Nazifa Alizada, David Altman, Michael Bernhard, Agnes Cornell, M. Steven Fish, Lisa Gastaldi, Haakon Gjerl\u00f8w, Adam Glynn, Sandra Grahn, Allen Hicken, Garry Hindle, Nina Ilchenko, Katrin Kinzelbach, Joshua Krusell, Kyle L. Marquardt, Kelly McMann, Valeriya Mechkova, Juraj Medzihorsky, Pamela Paxton, Daniel Pemstein, Josefine Pernes, Oskar Ryden, Johannes von R\u00f6mer, Brigitte Seim, Rachel Sigman, Svend-Erik Skaaning, Jeffrey Staton, Aksel Sundstr\u00f6m, Eitan Tzelgov, Yi-ting Wang, Tore Wig, Steven Wilson and Daniel Ziblatt. 2022.",
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                        "url": "https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C5&q=Coppedge%2C+Michael%2C+John+Gerring%2C+Carl+Henrik+Knutsen%2C+Staffan+I.+Lindberg%2C+Jan+Teorell%2C+Nazifa+Alizada%2C+David+Altman%2C+Michael+Bernhard%2C+Agnes+Cornell%2C+M.+Steven+Fish%2C+Lisa+Gastaldi%2C+Haakon+Gjerl%C3%B8w%2C+Adam+Glynn%2C+Sandra+Grahn%2C+Allen+Hicken%2C+Garry+Hindle%2C+Nina+Ilchenko%2C+Katrin+Kinzelbach%2C+Joshua+Krusell%2C+Kyle+L.+Marquardt%2C+Kelly+McMann%2C+Valeriya+Mechkova%2C+Juraj+Medzihorsky%2C+Pamela+Paxton%2C+Daniel+Pemstein%2C+Josefine+Pernes%2C+Oskar+Ryd%E2%80%80en%2C+Johannes+von+R%C3%B6mer%2C+Brigitte+Seim%2C+Rachel+Sigman%2C+Svend-Erik+Skaaning%2C+Jeffrey+Staton%2C+Aksel+Sundstr%C3%B6m%2C+Eitan+Tzelgov%2C+Yi-ting+Wang%2C+Tore+Wig%2C+Steven+Wilson+and+Daniel+Ziblatt.+2022.+VDem+%5BCountry%E2%80%93Year%2FCountry%E2%80%93Date%5D+Dataset+v12.+Varieties+of+Democracy+%28V-Dem%29+Project.&btnG=",
                        "children": [
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                                "text": " VDem [Country\u2013Year/Country\u2013Date] Dataset v12",
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                    },
                    {
                        "text": ". Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project.{/ref}",
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                        "text": "The project is managed by the V-Dem Institute, based at the University of Gothenburg in Sweden. It spans seven more regional centers around the world and is ",
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                        "url": "https://www.v-dem.net/about/v-dem-project/",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "run",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " by five principal investigators, dozens of project and regional managers, and more than 100 country coordinators.",
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                        "text": "V-Dem is funded through grants and donations by government agencies and private foundations, such as the Swedish Research Council, the European Commission, and the Marcus and Marianne Wallenberg Foundation.",
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                "text": [
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "How does V-Dem characterize human rights?",
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                "type": "heading",
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "Our team at Our World in Data uses V-Dem\u2019s Civil Liberties Index to measure human rights.",
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "V-Dem characterizes civil liberties as three types of freedoms: physical integrity rights, private civil liberties, and political civil liberties. More specifically, this means:",
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                                        "text": "Physical integrity rights",
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                            },
                            {
                                "text": ": people are free and protected from government torture and political killings",
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                                        "text": "Private civil liberties",
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                            {
                                "text": ": people are free from forced labor, have property rights, and enjoy freedoms of movement (move unrestricted within, to, and from the country) and religion (choose and practice their faith)",
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                                "children": [
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                                        "text": "Political civil liberties",
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                                "text": ": people enjoy freedoms of association (parties and civil society organizations can form and operate freely) and expression (they can voice their views, and the media can present different political perspectives)",
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                "text": [
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                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "How are human rights scored?",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
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                    }
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                "level": 2,
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "V-Dem\u2019s Civil Liberties Index scores each country on a spectrum, with some countries protecting human rights more than others.",
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
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                        "text": "The spectrum ranges from 0 (\u2018fewest rights\u2019) to 1 (\u2018most rights\u2019).",
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            {
                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/human-rights-vdem",
                "type": "chart",
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            {
                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/distribution-human-rights-vdem",
                "type": "chart",
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                "text": [
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "What years and countries are covered?",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
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                    }
                ],
                "type": "heading",
                "level": 2,
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "As of version 12 of the dataset, V-Dem covers 202 countries, going back in time as far as 1789. Many countries have been covered since 1900, including before they became independent from their colonial powers.",
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                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "How is democracy measured?",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-bold"
                    }
                ],
                "type": "heading",
                "level": 2,
                "parseErrors": []
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                "text": [
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "How does V-Dem work to make its assessments valid?",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
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                    }
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                "type": "heading",
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "To actually measure what it wants to capture, V-Dem assesses the characteristics of human rights mostly through evaluations by experts.{ref} For more details, see: Coppedge, Michael, John Gerring, Carl Henrik Knutsen, Staffan Lindberg, Jan Teorell, Kyle Marquardt, Juraj Medzihorsky, Daniel Pemstein, Nazifa Alizada, Lisa Gastaldi, Garry Hindle, Josefine Pernes, Johannes von R\u00f6mer, Eitan Tzelgov, Yi-ting Wang, and Steven Wilson. 2021. V-Dem Methodology v11.1. Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project: page 24.{/ref}",
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
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                        "text": "These anonymous experts are primarily academics and members of the media and civil society. They are also often nationals or residents of the country they assess, and therefore know its political system well and can evaluate aspects that are difficult to observe.",
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
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                        "text": "V-Dem\u2019s own team of researchers supplements the expert evaluations. They code some easier-to-observe rules and laws of the political system, such as whether the legislature has a lower and upper house.",
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                ],
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                "text": [
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "How does V-Dem work to make its assessments precise and reliable?",
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "V-Dem uses several experts per country, year, and topic, to make its assessments less subjective. In total, around 3,500 country-experts fill surveys for V-Dem every year.",
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "While there are fewer experts for small countries and for the time before 1900, they rely typically on 25 experts per country and 5 experts per topic.",
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                "text": [
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "How does V-Dem work to make its assessments comparable?",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
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                "type": "heading",
                "level": 3,
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "V-Dem also works to make their coders\u2019 assessments comparable across countries and time.",
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "The surveys ask the experts to answer very specific questions on completely explained scales about sub-characteristics of human rights \u2014 such as whether women can freely move in their own country \u2014 instead of making them rely on their broad impressions.",
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
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                        "text": "The surveys are available in English, Arabic, French, Portuguese, Russian, and Spanish to reduce misunderstandings.",
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Experts further evaluate hypothetical countries, many coded several countries, and they denote their own uncertainty and personal demographic information.",
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "V-Dem then uses this information to investigate expert biases, which they have found to be limited: they only find that experts from a country tend to be stricter in their assessments. {ref}\u201cWe have run extensive tests on how well such individual-level factors predict country-ratings but have found that the only factor consistently associated with country-ratings is country of origin (with \u201cdomestic\u201d experts being harsher in their judgments).\u201d",
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                    }
                ],
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Coppedge, Michael, John Gerring, Carl Henrik Knutsen, Staffan Lindberg, Jan Teorell, Kyle Marquardt, Juraj Medzihorsky, Daniel Pemstein, Nazifa Alizada, Lisa Gastaldi, Garry Hindle, Josefine Pernes, Johannes von R\u00f6mer, Eitan Tzelgov, Yi-ting Wang, and Steven Wilson. 2021. V-Dem Methodology v11.1. Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project: page 24.{/ref}",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
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            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "How are the remaining differences in the data dealt with?",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
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                    }
                ],
                "type": "heading",
                "level": 3,
                "parseErrors": []
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "V-Dem uses a statistical model to address any remaining differences between coders.{ref}Specifically, it uses a Bayesian Item-Response Theory estimation strategy.",
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                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Marquardt, Kyle, and Daniel Pemstein. 2018. IRT Models for Expert-Coded Panel Data. Political Analysis 26(4): 431-456.{/ref}",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "The model combines the experts\u2019 ratings of actual countries and hypothetical countries, as well as the experts\u2019 stated uncertainties and personal demographics to produce best, upper-, and lower-bound estimates of many characteristics.{ref}Expressed precisely, V-Dem\u2019s measurement model produces a probability distribution over the country-year scores. The best estimate is the distribution\u2019s median, while the upper and lower bound estimates demarcate the interval in which the model places 68 percent of the probability mass.{/ref}",
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                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "V-Dem provides these different estimates for all of its main and supplementary indices, including the Civil Liberties Index and the subindices for physical integrity rights, private civil liberties, and political civil liberties.",
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                ],
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "With the different estimates, V-Dem explicitly acknowledges that its coders can be uncertain or make errors in their measurement.",
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
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                        "text": "The overall Civil Liberties Index score is the result of averaging the three subindices.",
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            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "How is the data made accessible and transparent?",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-bold"
                    }
                ],
                "type": "heading",
                "level": 2,
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "V-Dem releases ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://v-dem.net/data/the-v-dem-dataset/",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "its data",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " publicly, and makes it straightforward to download and use.",
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                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "It publishes the overall scores, the underlying subindices, and several hundred specific questions by country-year, country-date, and coder.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
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                        "text": "V-Dem also releases detailed descriptions of the questions and coding procedures that guide the experts and researchers.",
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                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "How do we change the data?",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-bold"
                    }
                ],
                "type": "heading",
                "level": 2,
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "In our work, we expand the years covered by V-Dem further.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "To expand the time coverage of today\u2019s countries and include more of the period when they were still non-sovereign territories, we identified the historical entity they were a part of and used that regime\u2019s data whenever available.{ref}For example, V-Dem only provides data since Bangladesh\u2019s independence in 1971. There is, however, data for Pakistan and the colony of India, both of which the current territory of Bangladesh was a part. We, therefore, use the data of Pakistan for Bangladesh from 1947 to 1970, and the data of India from 1789 to 1946. We did so for all countries with a past or current population of more than one million.{/ref}",
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                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "We also calculated regional and global averages of the Civil Liberties Index and its sub-indices, weighted and unweighted by population.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Our code and data are available ",
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                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://github.com/owid/notebooks/tree/main/BastianHerre/democracy",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "on GitHub",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " and record our revisions in detail.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
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                "parseErrors": []
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            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "How often and when is the data updated?",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-bold"
                    }
                ],
                "type": "heading",
                "level": 2,
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "V-Dem releases a new version of the data each year in March.",
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "We at Our World in Data aim to update our own data within a few weeks of the release.",
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                    }
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                "parseErrors": []
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            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "What are the data\u2019s shortcomings?",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
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                    }
                ],
                "type": "heading",
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "There are shortcomings in the way that V-Dem\u2019s Civil Liberties Index characterizes and measures human rights.{ref}This and the following section draw on an article summarizing and reviewing some of the leading human rights datasets:",
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                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Cope, Kevin, Charles Crabtree, and Christopher Fariss. 2020. ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/political-science-research-and-methods/article/abs/patterns-of-disagreement-in-indicators-of-state-repression/FBCA92BDEFD630ED364DEFE73600172F",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Patterns of disagreement in indicators of state repression",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ". Political Science Research and Methods 8(1): 178-187.{/ref}",
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                    }
                ],
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            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "The index focuses on human rights as civil liberties and does not account for other characterizations, such as rights to food, health, or education. This means that countries with good health and education outcomes but restricted civil liberties, such as Iran and Singapore in recent years, still receive relatively low scores.",
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                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "The index also does not tell us anything about how human rights differ across parts of the population, such as between men and women, or between different ethnic groups.{ref}Though some of the index\u2019s specific indicators distinguish between rights for men and women.{/ref}",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "V-Dem also does not cover some countries with very small populations.",
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                ],
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Furthermore, the index is more difficult to interpret than other measures. The Civil Liberties Index does not identify whether a country grants or protects human rights or not, but only allows us to say whether a country is protecting\u00a0 human rights by comparing it to the range of the index, to other countries, or to the same country at another point in time. And when doing so, it is still difficult to say how large these differences are.{ref}This can be made easier by comparing how a score relates to the index\u2019s overall distribution or its distribution for a specific year.{/ref}",
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                ],
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "The assessment of the Civil Liberties Index remains to some extent subjective. Its index is built on difficult evaluations by experts and relies less on easier-to-observe characteristics, such as whether forming a civil society organization independent of the state is legal, or the number of allegations made in human rights reports against the government.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                ],
                "parseErrors": []
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Finally, the index\u2019s aggregation remains to some extent arbitrary. V-Dem does not say why these specific subindices were chosen, and why the subindices are given the same weight.",
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                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
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            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "What are the data\u2019s strengths?",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-bold"
                    }
                ],
                "type": "heading",
                "level": 2,
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Despite these shortcomings, the index tells us a lot about how protected human rights are around the world, in the past and today.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Its characterization of human rights as people enjoying physical integrity, as well as private and political civil liberties, is ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/human-rights-are-increasingly-plural-learning-the-changing-taxonomy-of-human-rights-from-largescale-text-reveals-information-effects/F202F327EA8F4CF52D2E65EB48D409D3",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "commonly recognized",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " to be at the core of human rights.",
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                    }
                ],
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Because it treats human rights as a spectrum, the index is able to capture both big and small differences in their protection across countries, and to record small changes within countries over time. This allows us to observe whether one country protects human rights more than another, or whether a country has protected human rights more or less over time.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                ],
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "The index also covers many countries and years. With the exception of microstates, it covers all countries in the world. Many countries are covered since 1900 \u2014 even while they were colonized by another country \u2014 and some of them as far back as 1789.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                ],
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Finally, V-Dem takes many steps to make its assessments valid, precise, comparable across countries and time, and transparent. It relies on many country and subject experts answering detailed surveys to measure aspects of political systems that are often difficult to observe and acknowledges the remaining uncertainty in their assessments.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "What is our summary assessment?",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-bold"
                    }
                ],
                "type": "heading",
                "level": 2,
                "parseErrors": []
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Whether V-Dem\u2019s Civil Liberties Index is a useful measure of human rights will depend on the questions we want to answer.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
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                        "text": "The index will not give us a satisfying answer if we are interested in an understanding of human rights as also including rights to health or education; in differences in the protection of human rights by gender and ethnicity; and if we are also interested in the political systems of microstates.",
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                                "text": "other measures",
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                        "text": ".",
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                        "text": "But if we value a sophisticated measure based on the knowledge of many country experts and are interested in big and small differences in civil liberties, within and across countries, and far into the past, we can learn a lot from this data.",
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                        "text": "It is for these latter purposes we use the measure in some of our reporting on human rights.",
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                        "children": [
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                                "text": "Keep reading on ",
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                                "children": [
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                        "children": [
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                                "text": "Acknowledgments",
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                        "text": "I thank Edouard Mathieu for his very helpful comments and ideas about how to improve this article.",
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                ],
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        ],
        "type": "article",
        "title": "The 'Varieties of Democracy' data: how do researchers measure human rights?",
        "authors": [
            "Bastian Herre"
        ],
        "excerpt": "There are several ways to measure human rights. Here is how the Varieties of Democracy project does it, one of the leading sources of global human rights data.",
        "dateline": "December 16, 2022",
        "subtitle": "There are several ways to measure human rights. Here is how the Varieties of Democracy project does it, one of the leading sources of global human rights data.",
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{
    "id": "wp-55049",
    "slug": "wild-mammals-birds-biomass",
    "content": {
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            {
                "left": [
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                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Humans have transformed the mammal kingdom.",
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                                "text": "A diverse range of mammals once roamed the planet. This changed quickly and dramatically with the arrival of humans. Since then, wild land mammal biomass ",
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                                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/wild-mammal-decline",
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                                        "text": "has declined",
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                                "text": " by an estimated 85%.",
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                                "text": "Humans are now the dominant species.",
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                                "text": "We see this when we look at the distribution of mammals across the world today.",
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                                "text": "There are various ways that we could look at mammal species: we could compare them based on the number of individuals: their ",
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                                "children": [
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                                        "text": "abundance",
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                            {
                                "text": ". This tends to favor very small animals with large populations and doesn\u2019t necessarily give us an idea of how dominant different species are.",
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                                "text": "Instead, ecologists often look at a different metric: biomass. This not only takes into account the ",
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                                "children": [
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                                        "text": "number",
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                                "text": " of animals but also factors in their size. Each animal is measured in tonnes of carbon, the fundamental building block of life.{ref}To calculate the biomass of a taxonomic group, the researchers multiplied the carbon stock for a single organism by the number of individuals in that group. In humans, for example, they calculate the average carbon quantity of a person and multiply by the human population. If you want to quickly estimate your carbon biomass: calculate 15% of your weight.{/ref} Biomass gives us a measure of the total biological productivity of an ecosystem. It also gives more weight to larger animals at higher levels of the ecological \u2018pyramid\u2019: these rely on well-functioning bases below them.",
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                                "text": "Let\u2019s then look at the breakdown of the global mammal kingdom in 2015. This data is sourced from the study by Yinon Bar-On, Rob Phillips, and Ron Milo.{ref}Bar-On, Y. M., Phillips, R., & Milo, R. (2018). ",
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                            },
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                                "url": "https://www.pnas.org/content/115/25/6506",
                                "children": [
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                                        "text": "The biomass distribution on Earth",
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                            },
                            {
                                "text": ". ",
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                            },
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                                "children": [
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                                        "text": "Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences",
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                                ],
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                            },
                            {
                                "text": ", 115(25), 6506-6511.{/ref}",
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                                "text": "Each icon is equivalent to around one million tonnes of carbon. This includes both land and marine wild mammals.",
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                                "text": "Wild mammals make up just 4% of the mammal kingdom.",
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                                "text": "The dominance of humans is clear. Alone, we account for around one-third of mammal biomass. Almost ten times greater than wild mammals.\u00a0",
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                                "text": "Our livestock then accounts for almost two-thirds. Cattle weigh almost ten times as much as all wild mammals combined. The biomass of all of the world\u2019s wild mammals is about a third of our pigs alone.",
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "Global poultry weighs more than twice that of wild birds",
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                                "text": "When I show people the chart above, one question always comes up: what about chickens? Of course, chickens are not mammals. But we can do a similar comparison between poultry and wild birds.",
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                                "text": "For birds the distribution is similar: poultry biomass is more than twice that of wild birds. We see this in the chart.",
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "Wild mammals have declined, but the total amount of mammal biomass has increased a lot",
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                                "text": "The charts above give us a snapshot of how the mammal kingdom looks in the modern day. But both the distribution and amount of mammal biomass have changed dramatically over time.",
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                                "text": "In the visualization we can see the total biomass of mammals at four points in time: 100,000 years ago; 10,000 years ago, in the year 1900, and the 2015 snapshot we looked at previously.{ref}These estimates were constructed from three key sources: long historical figures come from the work of Anthony Barnosky (2008); figures for the year 1900 figures from Vaclav Smil (2011); and 2015 figures from Yinon Bar-On, Rob Phillips and Ron Milo (2018).{ref} Barnosky, A. D. (2008). Megafauna biomass tradeoff as a driver of Quaternary and future extinctions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 105(Supplement 1), 11543-11548.",
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                        ],
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                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Smil, V. (2011). Harvesting the biosphere: What we have taken from nature. MIT Press.",
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                        "type": "text",
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                                "text": "Bar-On, Y. M., Phillips, R., & Milo, R. (2018). The biomass distribution on Earth. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 115(25), 6506-6511.{/ref}",
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                                "text": "In the last 100,000 years, as the human population increased, wild mammal biomass has declined by 85%.{ref}This was first driven by hunting: a global population of less than 5 million early humans hunted more than 100 of the largest mammals to extinction. Since the agricultural revolution, the decline in wild mammals has been driven by a mix of hunting but also habitat loss from the expansion of agricultural land.{/ref} I looked at this history in a ",
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                                                "text": "related article",
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                                "text": "The decline of wild mammals is not the only change. At the same time, humans and our livestock have grown significantly \u2013 from millions to billions.\u00a0",
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                                "text": "What\u2019s interesting is that, while the ",
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                                        "text": "diversity",
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                                "text": " of the mammal kingdom has decreased, its total size has expanded a lot. Terrestrial mammals weighed in at an estimated 20 million tonnes of carbon 10,000 years ago. This is now around nine times larger.{ref}With the rise and spread of farming, humans started to change the balance of carbon across ecosystems. We cut down forests, releasing carbon, and replaced them with farmlands. We also became much more skilled at balancing other nutrients that are essential for agriculture: until the early 1900s, we slowly improved our ability to balance nitrogen within our soils. This reached a whole new level in the 1920s with the invention of synthetic fertilizers from the Haber-Bosch process.",
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                                "text": "Around half of the humans alive today ",
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                                        "text": "owe their existence",
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                                ],
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                            },
                            {
                                "text": " to synthetic fertilizers.\u00a0",
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                                "text": "We were no longer trying to move nitrogen around the biosphere. We were taking nitrogen from the atmosphere and pulling it into the soils and crops where we could use it for food production, and the raising of livestock.",
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                                "text": "The Industrial Revolution lay at the heart of this change. To grow, we needed energy. Again, we were not just moving carbon around the biosphere. We were adding to it.",
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Erisman, J. W., Sutton, M. A., Galloway, J., Klimont, Z., & Winiwarter, W. (2008). How a century of ammonia synthesis changed the world. Nature Geoscience, 1(10), 636-639.",
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                            }
                        ],
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                    },
                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Smil, V. (2004). Enriching the Earth: Fritz Haber, Carl Bosch, and the Transformation of World Food Production. MIT Press. ISBN: 9780262194495.",
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                            }
                        ],
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                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Stewart, W. M., Dibb, D. W., Johnston, A. E., & Smyth, T. J. (2005). The contribution of commercial fertilizer nutrients to food production. Agronomy Journal, 97(1), 1-6.{/ref}",
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                        ],
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                                "text": "Within centuries, humans have increased the size of the mammal kingdom almost ten-fold.",
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "Keep reading at Our World in Data",
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                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/large-mammals-extinction",
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "Acknowledgments",
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                        "text": "Many thanks to Max Roser for providing feedback and suggestions on this article and its visualizations.",
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        ],
        "type": "article",
        "title": "Wild mammals make up only a few percent of the world\u2019s mammals",
        "authors": [
            "Hannah Ritchie"
        ],
        "excerpt": "Livestock make up 62% of the world\u2019s mammal biomass; humans account for 34%; and wild mammals are just 4%.",
        "dateline": "December 15, 2022",
        "subtitle": "Livestock make up 62% of the world\u2019s mammal biomass; humans account for 34%; and wild mammals are just 4%.",
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{
    "id": "wp-54861",
    "slug": "technology-long-run",
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                        "text": "Our World in Data presents the data and research to make progress against the world\u2019s largest problems.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "spanType": "span-newline"
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                    {
                        "text": "This article draws on data and research discussed in our entry on ",
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                                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/artificial-intelligence",
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                                        "text": "Artificial Intelligence",
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                        "text": "Technology can change the world in ways that are unimaginable, until they happen. Switching on an electric light would have been unimaginable for our medieval ancestors. In their childhood, our grandparents would have struggled to imagine a world connected by smartphones and the Internet.",
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                        "text": "Similarly, it is hard for us to imagine the arrival of all those technologies that will fundamentally change the world we are used to.",
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                        "text": "We can remind ourselves that our own future might look very different from the world today by looking back at how rapidly technology has changed our world in the past. That\u2019s what this article is about.\u00a0",
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                        "text": "One insight I take away from this long-term perspective is how unusual our time is. Technological change was ",
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                        "children": [
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                                "text": "extremely",
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                        "text": " slow in the past \u2013 the technologies that our ancestors got used to in their childhood were still central to their lives in their old age. In stark contrast to those days, we live in a time of extraordinarily fast technological change. For recent generations, it was common for technologies that were unimaginable in their youth to become common later in life.\u00a0",
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "The long-run perspective on technological change",
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                                "text": "The big visualization offers a long-term perspective on the history of technology.{ref}The recent speed of technological change makes it difficult to picture the history of technology in one visualization. When you visualize this development on a linear timeline then most of the timeline is almost empty, while all the action is crammed into the right-corner:",
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                                "text": "In my large visualization here I tried to avoid this problem and instead show the long history of technology in a way that lets you see when each technological breakthrough happened, and how within the last millennia there was a continuous acceleration of technological change.{/ref}",
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                                "text": "The timeline begins at the center of the spiral. The first use of stone tools, 3.4 million years ago, marks the beginning of this history of technology.{ref}It is of course difficult to assess when exactly the first stone tools were used.",
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                                "text": "The research by McPherron et al (2010) suggested that it was at least 3.39 million years ago. This is based on two fossilized bones, found in Dikika in Ethiopia, which showed \u201cstone-tool cut marks for flesh removal and percussion marks for marrow access\u201d. These marks were interpreted as being caused by the consumption of meat and provide the first evidence that one of our ancestors, Australopithecus afarensis, used stone tools.",
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                                "text": "The research by Harmand et al (2015) provided evidence for stone tool use in today\u2019s Kenya 3.3 million years ago.",
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                                "text": "References:\u00a0",
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                                "text": "McPherron et al (2010)",
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                                        "text": " \u2013 Evidence for stone-tool-assisted consumption of animal tissues before 3.39 million years ago at Dikika, Ethiopia",
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                                "text": ". Published in Nature.",
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                                "text": "Harmand et al (2015) \u2013",
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                                        "text": " 3.3-million-year-old stone tools from Lomekwi 3, West Turkana, Kenya",
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                                "text": ". Published in Nature.{/ref} Each turn of the spiral then represents 200,000 years of history. It took 2.4 million years \u2013 12 turns of the spiral \u2013 for our ancestors to control fire and use it for cooking.{ref}Evidence for controlled fire use approximately 1 million years ago is provided by Berna et al (2012)",
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                                "url": "https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1117620109",
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                                        "text": " Microstratigraphic evidence of in situ fire in the Acheulean strata of Wonderwerk Cave, Northern Cape province, South Africa",
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                                "text": ", published in PNAS.",
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                                "text": "The authors write: ",
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                                        "text": "\u201cThe ability to control fire was a crucial turning point in human evolution, but the question of when hominins first developed this ability still remains. Here we show that micromorphological and Fourier transform infrared microspectroscopy (mFTIR) analyses of intact sediments at the site of Wonderwerk Cave, Northern Cape province, South Africa, provide unambiguous evidence\u2014in the form of burned bone and ashed plant remains\u2014that burning took place in the cave during the early Acheulean occupation, approximately 1.0 Ma. To the best of our knowledge, this is the earliest secure evidence for burning in an archaeological context.\u201d",
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                                "text": "To be able to visualize the inventions in the more recent past \u2013 the last 12,000 years \u2013 I had to unroll the spiral. I needed more space to be able to show when agriculture, writing, and the wheel were invented. During this period, technological change was faster, but it was still relatively slow: several thousand years passed between each of these three inventions.",
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                                "text": "From 1800 onwards, I stretched out the timeline even further to show the many major inventions that rapidly followed one after the other.\u00a0",
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                                "text": "The long-term perspective that this chart provides makes it clear just how unusually fast technological change is in our time.\u00a0",
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                                "text": "You can use this visualization to see how technology developed in particular domains. Follow, for example, the history of communication: from writing, to paper, to the printing press, to the telegraph, the telephone, the radio, all the way to the Internet and smartphones.",
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                                "text": "Or follow the rapid development of human flight. In 1903, the Wright brothers took the first flight in human history (they were in the air for less than a minute), and just 66 years later, we landed on the moon. Many people saw both within their lifetimes: the first plane and the moon landing.",
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                                "text": "This large visualization also highlights the wide range of technology\u2019s impact on our lives. It includes extraordinarily beneficial innovations, such as the vaccine that allowed humanity to ",
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                                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/smallpox",
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                                        "text": "eradicate smallpox",
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                                "text": ", and it includes terrible innovations, like the nuclear bombs that endanger the lives ",
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                                        "text": "of all of us",
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                                "text": ".",
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                                "text": "What will the next decades bring?\u00a0",
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                                "text": "The red timeline reaches up to the present and then continues in green into the future. Many children born today, even without any further increases in life expectancy, will live well into the 22nd century.\u00a0",
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                                "text": "New vaccines, progress in clean, low-carbon energy, better cancer treatments \u2013 a range of future innovations could very much improve our living conditions and the environment around us. But, as I argue in a ",
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                                "text": ", there is one technology that could even more profoundly change our world: artificial intelligence (AI).",
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                                "text": "One reason why artificial intelligence is such an important innovation is that intelligence is the main driver of innovation itself. This fast-paced technological change could speed up even more if it\u2019s not only driven by humanity\u2019s intelligence, but artificial intelligence too. If this happens, the change that is currently stretched out over the course of decades might happen within very brief time spans of just a year. Possibly even faster.{ref}This is what authors like Holden Karnofsky ",
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                                "text": " \u2018Process for Automating Scientific and Technological Advancement\u2019 or PASTA. There are some recent developments that go in this direction: DeepMind\u2019s ",
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                                "text": " helped to make progress on one of the large problems in biology, and they ",
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                                "text": " developed an AI system that finds new algorithms that are relevant to building a more powerful AI.{/ref}",
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                                "text": "I think AI technology could have a fundamentally transformative impact on our world. In many ways, it is already changing our world, as I documented ",
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                                        "text": "in this companion article",
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                                "text": ". As this technology is becoming more capable in the years and decades to come, it can give immense power to those who control it (and it poses ",
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                                        "text": "the risk",
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                                "text": " that it could escape our control entirely).",
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                                "text": "Such systems might seem hard to imagine today, but AI technology is advancing very fast. Many AI experts believe there is a real chance that human-level artificial intelligence will be developed within the next decades, as I documented in ",
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                        "text": "Technology will continue to change the world \u2013 we should all make sure that it changes it for the better",
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                        "text": "What is familiar to us today \u2013 photography, the radio, antibiotics, the Internet, or the International Space Station circling our planet \u2013 was unimaginable to our ancestors just a few generations ago. If your great-great-great grandparents could spend a week with you they would be blown away by your everyday life.",
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                        "text": "What I take away from this history is that I will likely see technologies in my lifetime that appear unimaginable to me today.\u00a0",
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                        "text": "In addition to this trend towards increasingly rapid innovation, there is a second long-run trend. Technology has become increasingly powerful. While our ancestors wielded stone tools, we are building globe-spanning AI systems and technologies that can edit our genes.",
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                        "text": "Because of the immense power that technology gives those who control it, there is little that is as important as the question of which technologies get developed during our lifetimes. Therefore I think ",
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                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/ai-impact",
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                                "text": "it is a mistake",
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                        "text": " to leave the question about the future of technology to the technologists. Which technologies are controlled by whom is one of the most important political questions of our time, because of the enormous power that these technologies convey to those who control them.",
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                        "text": "We all should strive to gain the knowledge we need to contribute to an intelligent debate about the world we want to live in. To a large part this means gaining the knowledge, and wisdom, on the question of which technologies we want.",
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                                "text": "Our new topic page on AI",
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                        "text": ".",
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                                "text": "Acknowledgements:",
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                        "text": " I would like to thank my colleagues Hannah Ritchie, Bastian Herre, Natasha Ahuja, Edouard Mathieu, Daniel Bachler, Charlie Giattino, and Pablo Rosado for their helpful comments to drafts of this essay and the visualization. Thanks also to Lizka Vaintrob and Ben Clifford for a conversation that initiated this visualization.",
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        "type": "article",
        "title": "Technology over the long run: zoom out to see how dramatically the world can change within a lifetime",
        "authors": [
            "Max Roser"
        ],
        "excerpt": "It is easy to underestimate how much the world can change within a lifetime. Bringing to mind how dramatically the world has changed can help us see how different the world could be in a few years or decades.",
        "dateline": "February 22, 2023",
        "subtitle": "It is easy to underestimate how much the world can change within a lifetime. Bringing to mind how dramatically the world has changed can help us see how different the world could be in a few years or decades.",
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                        "text": "Our World in Data presents the data and research to make progress against the world\u2019s largest problems.",
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                        "text": "This article draws on data and research discussed in our entry on ",
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                                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/artificial-intelligence",
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                                        "text": "Artificial Intelligence",
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                        "text": "Artificial intelligence (AI) that surpasses our own intelligence sounds like the stuff from science-fiction books or films. What do experts in the field of AI research think about such scenarios? Do they dismiss these ideas as fantasy, or are they taking such prospects seriously?",
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                        "text": "A human-level AI would be a machine, or a network of machines, capable of carrying out the same range of tasks that we humans are capable of. It would be a machine that is \u201cable to learn to do anything that a human can do\u201d, as Norvig and Russell put it in their textbook on AI.{ref}Peter Norvig and Stuart Russell (2021) \u2013 Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach. Fourth edition. Published by Pearson.{/ref}",
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                        "text": "It would be able to choose actions that allow the machine to achieve its goals and then carry out those actions. It would be able to do the work of a translator, a doctor, an illustrator, a teacher, a therapist, a driver, or the work of an investor.\u00a0",
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                        "text": "In recent years, several research teams contacted AI experts and asked them about their expectations for the future of machine intelligence. Such expert surveys are one of the pieces of information that we can rely on to form an idea of what the future of AI might look like.",
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                        "text": "The chart shows the answers of 352 experts. This is from the most recent study by Katja Grace and her colleagues, conducted in the summer of 2022.{ref}A total of 4,271 AI experts were contacted; 738 responded (a 17% rate), of which 352 provided complete answers to the human-level AI question.",
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                        "text": "It\u2019s possible that the respondents were not representative of all the AI experts contacted \u2013 that is, that there was \u201csample bias.\u201d There is not enough data to rule out all potential sources of sample bias. After all, we don\u2019t know what the people who didn\u2019t respond to the survey, or others who weren\u2019t even contacted, believe about AI. However, there is evidence from similar surveys to suggest that at least some potential sources of bias are minimal.",
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                        "text": "In similar surveys (e.g., ",
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                        "url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2206.04132.pdf",
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                                "text": "Zhang et al. 2022",
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                        "text": "; ",
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                                "text": "Grace et al. 2018",
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                        "text": "), the researchers compared the group of respondents with a randomly selected, similarly sized group of non-respondents to see if they differed on measurable demographic characteristics, such as where they were educated, their gender, how many citations they had, years in the field, etc.",
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                        "text": "In these similar surveys, the researchers found some differences between the respondents and non-respondents, but they were small. So while other, unmeasured sources of sample bias couldn\u2019t be ruled out, large bias due to the demographic characteristics that were measured could be ruled out.{/ref}",
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                        "text": "Experts were asked when they believe there is a 50% chance that human-level AI exists.{ref}Much of the literature on AI timelines focuses on the 50% probability threshold. I think it would be valuable if this literature would additionally also focus on higher thresholds, say a probability of 80% for the development of a particular technology. In future updates of this article we will aim to broaden the focus and include such higher thresholds.{/ref} Human-level AI was defined as unaided machines being able to accomplish every task better and more cheaply than human workers. More information about the study can be found in the fold-out box at the end of this text.{ref}A discussion of the two most widely used concepts for thinking about the future of powerful AI systems \u2013 human-level AI and transformative AI \u2013 can be found in this ",
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                                "text": "companion article",
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                        "text": ".{/ref}",
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                        "text": "Each vertical line in this chart represents the answer of one expert. The fact that there are such large differences in answers makes it clear that experts do not agree on how long it will take until such a system might be developed. A few believe that this level of technology will never be developed. Some think that it\u2019s possible, but it will take a long time. And many believe that it will be developed within the next few decades.",
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                        "text": "As highlighted in the annotations, half of the experts gave a date before 2061, and 90% gave a date within the next 100 years.",
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                        "text": "Other surveys of AI experts come to similar conclusions. In the following visualization, I have added the timelines from two earlier surveys conducted in 2018 and 2019. It is helpful to look at different surveys, as they differ in how they asked the question and how they defined human-level AI. You can find more details about these studies at the end of this text.",
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                        "text": "In all three surveys, we see a large disagreement between experts and they also express large uncertainties about their own individual forecasts.{ref}The visualization shows when individual experts gave a 50% chance of human-level machine intelligence. The surveys also include data on when these experts gave much lower chances (e.g., ~10%) as well as much higher ones (~90%), and the spread between the respective dates is often considerable, expressing the AI experts range of their individual uncertainty. For example, the average across individual experts in the Zhang et al study gave a 10% chance of human-level machine intelligence by 2035, a 50% chance by 2060, and a 90% chance by 2105.{/ref}\u00a0",
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "What should we make of the timelines of AI experts?",
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                        "text": "Expert surveys are one piece of information to consider when we think about the future of AI, but we should not overstate the results of these surveys. Experts in a particular technology are not necessarily experts in making predictions about the future of that technology.",
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                        "text": "Experts in many fields do not have a good track record in making forecasts about their own field, as researchers including Barbara Mellers, Phil Tetlock, and others have shown.{ref}Mellers, B., Tetlock, P., & Arkes, H. R. (2019). Forecasting tournaments, epistemic humility and attitude depolarization. Cognition, 188, 19-26.",
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "Tetlock, P. (2005)\u00a0\u2013\u00a0Expert political judgment: How good is it? How can we know? Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press",
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                        "text": "Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner (2015) \u2013 Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction.{/ref} The history of flight includes a striking example of such failure. Wilbur Wright is quoted as saying, \"I confess that in 1901, I said to my brother Orville that man would not fly for 50 years.\" Two years later, \u2018man\u2019 was not only flying, but it was these very men who achieved the feat.{ref}Another example is Ernest Rutherford, father of nuclear physics, calling the possibility of harnessing nuclear energy \"moonshine.\" The research paper by John Jenkin discusses why. John G. Jenkin (2011) \u2013 Atomic Energy is \u2018\u2018Moonshine\u2019\u2019: What did Rutherford Really Mean?. Published in Physics in Perspective. DOI 10.1007/s00016-010-0038-1{/ref}\u00a0",
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                        "text": "Additionally these studies often find large \u2018framing effects\u2019, two logically identical questions get answered in very different ways depending on how exactly the questions are worded.{ref}This is discussed in some more detail for the study by Grace et al. in the Appendix.{/ref}",
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                        "text": "What I do take away from these surveys however, is that the majority of AI experts take the prospect of very powerful AI technology seriously. It is not the case that AI researchers dismiss extremely powerful AI as mere fantasy.\u00a0",
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                        "text": "The huge majority thinks that in the coming decades there is an even chance that we will see AI technology which will have a transformative impact on our world. While some have long timelines, many think it is possible that we have very little time before these technologies arrive. Across the three surveys more than half think that there is a 50% chance that a human-level AI would be developed before some point in the 2060s, a time well within the lifetime of today\u2019s young people.",
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                        "text": "The forecast of the Metaculus community",
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                        "text": "In the big visualization on AI timelines below, I have included the forecast by the Metaculus forecaster community.",
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                        "text": "The forecasters on the online platform ",
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                        "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/",
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                                "text": "Metaculus.com",
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                        "text": " are not experts in AI but people who dedicate their energy to making good forecasts. Research on forecasting has documented that groups of people can assign surprisingly accurate probabilities to future events when given the right incentives and good feedback.{ref}See the previously cited literature on forecasting by Barbara Mellers, Phil Tetlock, and others.{/ref} To receive this feedback, the online community at Metaculus ",
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                        "text": " how well they perform in their forecasts.\u00a0",
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                        "text": "What does this group of forecasters expect for the future of AI?",
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                        "text": "At the time of writing, in November 2022, the forecasters believe that there is a 50/50-chance for an \u2018Artificial General Intelligence\u2019 to be \u2018devised, tested, and publicly announced\u2019 by the year 2040, less than 20 years from now.",
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                        "text": "On ",
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                        "text": " page about this specific question, you can find the precise definition of the AI system in question, how the timeline of their forecasts has changed, and the arguments of individual forecasters for how they arrived at their predictions.{ref}There are two other relevant questions on Metaculus. The ",
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                                "text": "first one",
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                        "text": " asks for the date when weakly General AI will be publicly known. And ",
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                                "text": "the second one",
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                        "text": " is asking for the probability of \u2018human/machine intelligence parity\u2019 by 2040.{/ref}",
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                        "text": "The timelines of the Metaculus community have become much shorter recently. The expected timelines have shortened by about a decade in the spring of 2022, when several impressive AI breakthroughs happened faster than many had anticipated.{ref}Metaculus\u2019s community prediction fell from the year 2058 in March 2022 to the year 2040 in July 2022.{/ref}",
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                        "text": "The forecast by Ajeya Cotra",
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                        "text": "The last shown forecast stems from the research by Ajeya Cotra, who works for the nonprofit Open Philanthropy.{ref}Her research was announced in various places, including the AI Alignment Forum: Ajeya Cotra (2020) \u2013\u00a0",
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                        "url": "https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/KrJfoZzpSDpnrv9va/draft-report-on-ai-timelines",
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                                "text": "Draft report on AI timelines",
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                        "text": ". As far as I know the report itself always remained a \u2018draft report\u2019 and was published ",
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                                "text": "here on Google Docs",
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                        "text": "In 2022 Ajeya Cotra published a ",
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                                "text": "Two-year update on my personal AI timelines",
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                        "text": ".{/ref} In 2020 she published a detailed and influential study asking when the world will see transformative AI. Her timeline is not based on surveys, but on the study of long-term trends in the computation used to train AI systems. I present and discuss the long-run trends in training computation in ",
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                                "text": "this companion article.",
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                        "text": "Cotra estimated that there is a 50% chance that a transformative AI system will become possible and affordable by the year 2050. This is her central estimate in her \u201cmedian scenario.\u201d Cotra emphasizes that there are substantial uncertainties around this median scenario, and also explored two other, more extreme, scenarios. The timelines for these two scenarios \u2013 her \u201cmost aggressive plausible\u201d scenario and her \u201cmost conservative plausible\u201d scenario \u2013 are also shown in the visualization. The span from 2040 to 2090 in Cotra\u2019s \u201cplausible\u201d forecasts highlights that she believes that the uncertainty is large.",
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                        "text": "The visualization also shows that Cotra updated her forecast two years after its initial publication. In 2022 Cotra published an update in which she shortened her median timeline by a full ten years.{ref}Ajeya Cotra\u2019s ",
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                        "text": ".{/ref}\u00a0",
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                        "text": "It is important to note that the definitions of the AI systems in question differ very much across these various studies. For example, the system that Cotra speaks about would have a much more transformative impact on the world than the system that the Metaculus forecasters focus on. More details can be found in the appendix and within the respective studies.",
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                        "text": "What can we learn from the forecasts?",
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                        "text": "The visualization shows the forecasts of 1128 people \u2013 812 individual AI experts, the aggregated estimates of 315 forecasters from the Metaculus platform, and the findings of the detailed study by Ajeya Cotra.",
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                        "text": "There are two big takeaways from these forecasts on AI timelines:",
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                                "text": "There is no consensus, and the uncertainty is high. There is huge disagreement between experts about when human-level AI will be developed. Some believe that it is decades away, while others think it is probable that such systems will be developed within the next few years or months.",
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                                "text": "There is not just disagreement ",
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                                "text": " experts; individual experts also emphasize the large uncertainty around their own individual estimate. As always when the uncertainty is high, it is important to stress that it cuts both ways. It might be very long until we see human-level AI, but it also means that we might have little time to prepare.\u00a0",
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                                "text": "At the same time, there is large agreement in the overall picture. The timelines of many experts are shorter than a century, and many have timelines that are substantially shorter than that. The majority of those who study this question believe that there is a 50% chance that transformative AI systems will be developed within the next 50 years. In this case it would plausibly be the biggest transformation in the lifetime of our children, or even in our own lifetime.",
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                        "text": "The public discourse and the decision-making at major institutions have not caught up with these prospects. In discussions on the future of our world \u2013 from the future of our climate, to the future of our economies, to the future of our political institutions \u2013 the prospect of transformative AI is rarely central to the conversation. Often it is not mentioned at all, not even in a footnote.",
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                        "text": "We seem to be in a situation where most people hardly think about the future of artificial intelligence, while the few who dedicate their attention to it find it plausible that one of the biggest transformations in humanity\u2019s history is likely to happen within our lifetimes.",
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                                "text": "Acknowledgements:",
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                        "text": " I would like to thank my colleagues Natasha Ahuja, Daniel Bachler, Bastian Herre, Edouard Mathieu, Esteban Ortiz-Ospina and Hannah Ritchie for their helpful comments to drafts of this essay.",
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                        "text": "And I would like to thank my colleague Charlie Giattino who calculated the timelines for individual experts based on the data from the three survey studies and supported the work on this essay. Charlie is also one of the authors of the cited study by Zhang et al. on timelines of AI experts.",
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                                "text": "Additional information",
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                                        "text": "The three cited AI experts surveys are:",
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                                                "text": "Katja Grace, Zach Stein-Perlman, and Benjamin Weinstein-Raun (2022) \u2013 \u201c",
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                                                "url": "https://aiimpacts.org/2022-expert-survey-on-progress-in-ai/",
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                                                        "text": "2022 Expert Survey on Progress in AI",
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                                                "text": "Baobao Zhang, Noemi Dreksler, Markus Anderljung, Lauren Kahn, Charlie Giattino, Allan Dafoe, and Michael Horowitz (2022) \u2013 ",
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                                                "url": "https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2206.04132",
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                                                        "text": "Forecasting AI Progress: Evidence from a Survey of Machine Learning Researchers",
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                                                "text": ". Published on arXiv June 8, 2022.\u00a0",
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                                                "text": "Ross Gruetzemacher, David Paradice, and Kang Bok Lee (2019) \u2013 ",
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                                        "text": "The surveys were conducted during the following times:",
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                                                "text": "Grace et al. was completed between 12 June and 3 August 2022.",
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                                                "text": "Zhang et al. was completed mainly between 16 September and 13 October 2019; but due to an error some experts completed the survey between 10-14 March 2020.",
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                                        "text": "The surveys differ in how the question was asked and how the AI system in question was defined. In the following sections we discuss this in detail for all cited studies.",
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                                        "text": "The study by Grace et al. published in 2022",
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                                        "text": "Survey respondents were given the following text regarding the definition of high-level machine intelligence:\u00a0",
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                                        "text": "\u201cThe following questions ask about \u2018high-level machine intelligence\u2019 (HLMI). Say we have \u2018high-level machine intelligence\u2019 when unaided machines can accomplish every task better and more cheaply than human workers. Ignore aspects of tasks for which being a human is intrinsically advantageous, e.g., being accepted as a jury member. Think feasibility, not adoption. For the purposes of this question, assume that human scientific activity continues without major negative disruption.\u201d",
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                                        "text": "Each respondent was randomly assigned to give their forecasts under one of two different framings: \u201cfixed-probability\u201d and \u201cfixed-years.\u201d",
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                                        "text": "Those in the fixed-probability framing were asked, \u201cHow many years until you expect: A 10% probability of HLMI existing? A 50% probability of HLMI existing? A 90% probability of HLMI existing?\u201d They responded by giving a number of years from the day they took the survey.",
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                                        "text": "Those in the fixed-years framing were asked, \u201cHow likely is it that HLMI exists: In 10 years? In 20 years? In 40 years?\u201d They responded by giving a probability of that happening.",
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                                        "text": "Several studies have shown that the framing affects respondents\u2019 timelines, with the fixed-years framing leading to longer timelines (i.e., that HLMI is further in the future). For example, in the previous edition of this survey (which asked identical questions), respondents who got the fixed-years framing gave a 50% chance of HLMI by 2068; those who got fixed-probability gave the year 2054.{ref}Grace et al (2018) Viewpoint: When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts. Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research. We read both of these numbers of the chart in this publication, these years are not directly reported.{/ref} The framing results from the 2022 edition of the survey have not yet been published.",
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                                        "text": "In addition to this framing effect, there is a larger effect driven by how the concept of HLMI is defined. We can see this in the results from the previous edition of this survey (the result from the 2022 survey hasn\u2019t yet been published). For respondents who were given the HLMI definition above, the average forecast for a 50% chance of HLMI was 2061. A small subset of respondents was instead given another, logically similar question that asked about the full automation of labor; their average forecast for a 50% probability was 2138, a full 77 years later than the first group.",
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                                        "text": "The full automation of labor group was asked: \u201cSay an occupation becomes fully automatable when unaided machines can accomplish it better and more cheaply than human workers. Ignore aspects of occupations for which being a human is intrinsically advantageous, e.g., being accepted as a jury member. Think feasibility, not adoption. Say we have reached \u2018full automation of labor\u2019 when all occupations are fully automatable. That is, when for any occupation, machines could be built to carry out the task better and more cheaply than human workers.\u201d This question was asked under both the fixed-probability and fixed-years framings.",
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                                "text": [
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                                        "text": "The study by Zhang et al. published in 2022",
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                                        "text": "Survey respondents were given the following definition of human-level machine intelligence: \u201cHuman-level machine intelligence (HLMI) is reached when machines are collectively able to perform almost all tasks (>90% of all tasks) that are economically relevant better than the median human paid to do that task in 2019. You should ignore tasks that are legally or culturally restricted to humans, such as serving on a jury.\u201d",
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                                        "text": "\u201cEconomically relevant\u201d tasks were defined as those included in the ",
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                                        "url": "https://www.onetcenter.org/database.html#individual-files",
                                        "children": [
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                                                "text": "Occupational Information Network (O*NET) database",
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                                        "text": ". O*NET is a widely used dataset of tasks carried out across a wide range of occupations.",
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                                        "text": "As in Grace et al 2022, each survey respondent was randomly assigned to give their forecasts under one of two different framings: \u201cfixed-probability\u201d and \u201cfixed-years.\u201d As was found before, the fixed-years framing resulted in longer timelines on average: the year 2070 for a 50% chance of HLMI, compared to 2050 under the fixed-probability framing.",
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                                        "text": "The study by Gruetzemacher et al. published in 2019",
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                                        "text": "Survey respondents were asked the following: \u201cThese questions will ask your opinion of future AI progress with regard to human tasks. We define human tasks as all unique tasks that humans are currently paid to do. We consider human tasks as different from jobs in that an algorithm may be able to replace humans at some portion of tasks a job requires while not being able to replace humans for all of the job requirements. For example, an AI system(s) may not replace a lawyer entirely but may be able to accomplish 50% of the tasks a lawyer typically performs. In how many years do you expect AI systems to collectively be able to accomplish 99% of human tasks at or above the level of a typical human? Think feasibility.\u201d",
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                                        "text": "We show the results using this definition of AI in the chart, as we judged this definition to be most comparable to the other studies included in the chart.",
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                                        "text": "In addition to this definition, respondents were asked about AI systems that are able to collectively accomplish 50% and 90% of human tasks, as well as \u201cbroadly capable AI systems\u201d that are able to accomplish 90% and 99% of human tasks.",
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                                        "text": "All respondents in this survey received a fixed-probability framing.",
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                                        "text": "The study by Ajeya Cotra published in 2020",
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                                        "text": "Cotra\u2019s overall aim was to estimate when we might expect \u201ctransformative artificial intelligence\u201d (TAI), defined as \u201c \u2018software\u2019... that has at least as profound an impact on the world\u2019s trajectory as the Industrial Revolution did.\u201d",
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                                        "text": "Cotra focused on \u201ca relatively concrete and easy-to-picture way that TAI could manifest: as a single computer program which performs a large enough diversity of intellectual labor at a high enough level of performance that it alone can drive a transition similar to the Industrial Revolution.\u201d",
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                                        "text": "One intuitive example of such a program is the \u2018virtual professional\u2019, \u201ca model that can do roughly everything economically productive that an intelligent and educated human could do remotely from a computer connected to the internet at a hundred-fold speedup, for costs similar to or lower than the costs of employing such a human.\u201d",
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                                        "text": "When might we expect something like a virtual professional to exist?",
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                                        "text": "To answer this, Cotra first estimated the amount of computation that would be required to train such a system using the machine learning architectures and algorithms available to researchers in 2020. She then estimated when that amount of computation would be available at a low enough cost based on extrapolating past trends.",
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                                        "text": "The estimate of training computation relies on an estimate of the amount of computation performed by the human brain each second, combined with different hypotheses for how much training would be required to reach a high enough level of capability.",
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                                        "text": "For example, the \u201clifetime anchor\u201d hypothesis estimates the total computation performed by the human brain up to age ~32.",
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                                        "text": "Each aspect of these estimates comes with a very high degree of uncertainty. Cotra writes: \u201cThe question of whether there is a sensible notion of \u2018brain computation\u2019 that can be measured in FLOP/s\u2014and if so, what range of numerical estimates for brain FLOP/s would be reasonable\u2014is conceptually fraught and empirically murky.\u201d",
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                                        "text": "For anyone who is interested in the question of future AI, the study of Cotra is very much worth reading in detail. She lays out good and transparent reasons for her estimates and communicates her reasoning in great detail.",
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                                        "text": "Her research was announced in various places, including the AI Alignment Forum: Ajeya Cotra (2020) \u2013\u00a0",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    },
                                    {
                                        "url": "https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/KrJfoZzpSDpnrv9va/draft-report-on-ai-timelines",
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                                                "text": "Draft report on AI timelines",
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                                        "text": ". As far as I know the report itself always remained a \u2018draft report\u2019 and was published ",
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                                        "url": "https://drive.google.com/drive/u/1/folders/15ArhEPZSTYU8f012bs6ehPS6-xmhtBPP",
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                                                "text": "here on Google Docs",
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                                        ],
                                        "spanType": "span-link"
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                                    {
                                        "text": " (it is not uncommon in the field of AI research that articles get published in non-standard ways). In 2022 Ajeya Cotra published a ",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    },
                                    {
                                        "url": "https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/AfH2oPHCApdKicM4m/two-year-update-on-my-personal-ai-timelines",
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                                                "text": "Two-year update on my personal AI timelines",
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                                        "text": ".",
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                                        "text": "Other studies",
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                                        "text": "A very different kind of forecast that is also relevant here is the work of David Roodman. In his article ",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    },
                                    {
                                        "url": "https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/modeling-the-human-trajectory/",
                                        "children": [
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                                                "text": "Modeling the Human Trajectory",
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                                    {
                                        "text": " he studies the history of global economic output to think about the future. He asks whether it is plausible to see economic growth that could be considered \u2018transformative\u2019 \u2013 an annual growth rate of the world economy higher than 30% \u2013\u00a0within this century. One of his conclusions is that \"if the patterns of long-term history continue, some sort of economic explosion will take place again, the most plausible channel being AI.\u201d",
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                                        "text": "And another very different kind of forecast is Tom Davidson\u2019s ",
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                                    },
                                    {
                                        "url": "https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/report-on-semi-informative-priors/",
                                        "children": [
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                                                "text": "Report on Semi-informative Priors",
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                                    {
                                        "text": " published in 2021.",
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        "type": "article",
        "title": "AI timelines: What do experts in artificial intelligence expect for the future?",
        "authors": [
            "Max Roser"
        ],
        "excerpt": "Many AI experts believe there is a real chance that human-level artificial intelligence will be developed within the next decades, and some believe that it will exist much sooner.",
        "dateline": "February 7, 2023",
        "subtitle": "Many AI experts believe there is a real chance that human-level artificial intelligence will be developed within the next decades, and some believe that it will exist much sooner.",
        "sidebar-toc": false,
        "featured-image": "featured-image-When-do-experts-expect-Artificial-General-Intelligence.png"
    },
    "createdAt": "2022-12-02T17:35:18.000Z",
    "published": false,
    "updatedAt": "2023-10-11T08:44:20.000Z",
    "revisionId": null,
    "publishedAt": "2023-02-07T11:00:00.000Z",
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}

{
    "id": "wp-54814",
    "slug": "ai-investments",
    "content": {
        "toc": [],
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            {
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                        "text": "Our World in Data presents the data and research to make progress against the world\u2019s largest problems.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                        "text": "This article draws on data and research discussed in our entry on ",
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                    },
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/artificial-intelligence",
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                                        "text": "Artificial Intelligence",
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                        "text": ".",
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                        "text": "Artificial intelligence (AI) technology has steadily become more powerful over the course of the last decades and in recent years it has entered our world in many different domains. In a companion article \u2013 ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/brief-history-of-ai",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "the brief history of artificial intelligence",
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                        "text": " \u2013 I document this development.",
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "This was achieved despite having relatively few resources. Until recently, investments in terms of capital and scientific efforts were small. In this article I highlight that this has very much changed in recent years. Corporate investment has increased and the scientific field has grown in size.",
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "Given how rapidly AI developed in the past, despite the limited resources, this should make us expect AI technology to continue to become more powerful in the coming decades.\u00a0",
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "Investments into AI",
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                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "The first chart looks at corporate investment over time.{ref}It is not obvious how to adjust a time-series of AI investments for inflation, and we debated it at some length within the team.\u00a0",
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                    }
                ],
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Reporting it in nominal prices (as some do) means it makes little sense to compare observations across time and is therefore not very helpful. To make comparisons over time possible one has to take into account that prices change.",
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                        "text": "It would be straightforward to adjust the time series for price changes if we knew the prices of the specific goods and services that these investments purchased. This would make it possible to calculate a volume measure of AI investments, and it would tell us how much these investments bought. But such a metric is not available.",
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                        "text": "(While a comprehensive price index is not available, we know that the cost for some crucial AI technology has fallen rapidly in price. For example, it has become much cheaper to train an AI system.)",
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
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                        "text": "In the absence of a comprehensive price index that captures the price of AI-specific goods and services, one has to rely on one of the available metrics for the price of a bundle of goods and services. In the end we decided to use the US Consumer Price Index (CPI).",
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                        "text": "The US CPI does not provide us with a volume measure of AI goods and services, but it does capture the opportunity costs of these investments. The inflation adjustment of this time series of AI investments therefore lets us understand the size of these investments relative to whatever else these sums of money could have purchased.{/ref}",
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "Until recently, private sector investment was relatively low. But, especially from 2018 onwards, it has increased rapidly.\u00a0",
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                        "text": "Investments in 2021 were about 30-times larger than just eight years earlier.",
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            {
                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/corporate-investment-in-artificial-intelligence-by-type",
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "Research and the labor market",
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                        "text": "The four following visualizations show that the trends for AI research efforts and the labor market are similar.\u00a0",
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                        "text": "Just a decade ago the field was much smaller than it is today. Since then the number of research publications on artificial intelligence has doubled, and AI conferences have become much larger events. This is what the first two charts show.",
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "The third chart documents the increasing importance of AI skills in the labor market. The last chart shows the specialty of computer science PhD students in the US. With an increasing number of students in the field, the number of researchers and research output is set to increase further in years to come.\u00a0",
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "Additionally, AI itself is contributing to the development of AI: Researchers are beginning to find ways for AI itself to contribute to the development of AI.{ref}One early example for this is ",
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                    {
                        "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neural_architecture_search",
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                                "text": "Neural architecture search",
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                        "text": ".{/ref}",
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                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-scholarly-publications-on-artificial-intelligence",
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                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-artificial-intelligence-job-postings",
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "Conclusion",
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                        "text": "The developments in the past happened despite the fact that funding and brainpower dedicated to AI were quite limited. As these charts have shown, this has changed. Across a range of metrics, the resources dedicated to AI development have increased substantially.",
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "The fact that the field advanced with relatively small resources, and now has much larger resources at its disposal \u2013 leading to ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/brief-history-of-ai",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "rapid advances",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " in the last few years \u2013 is one reason why I expect AI technology to continue to develop rapidly and to exert a larger and larger influence on our world.\u00a0",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
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                "value": [
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                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Continue reading on Our World in Data:",
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                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-italic"
                    },
                    {
                        "spanType": "span-newline"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/ai-timelines",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "AI timelines: What do experts in artificial intelligence expect for the future?",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    }
                ],
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                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Acknowledgements:",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-bold"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " I would like to thank Julia Broden, Charlie Giattino, Joe Hasell, and Edouard Mathieu for their helpful comments to drafts of this essay and the visualizations.",
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                    }
                ],
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                        "children": [
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                                "text": "Appendix",
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                        ],
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                    }
                ],
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            {
                "type": "text",
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                        "text": "Additional charts on the rise of investments into AI technology",
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                    }
                ],
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        ],
        "type": "article",
        "title": "Artificial intelligence has advanced despite having few resources dedicated to its development \u2013 now investments have increased substantially",
        "authors": [
            "Max Roser"
        ],
        "excerpt": "In the past, relatively few researchers were working on AI technology and there was little commercial interest and funding. Now, the available resources have increased substantially. We should expect that the field continues to advance rapidly.",
        "dateline": "March 29, 2023",
        "subtitle": "In the past, relatively few researchers were working on AI technology and there was little commercial interest and funding. Now, the available resources have increased substantially. We should expect that the field continues to advance rapidly.",
        "sidebar-toc": false,
        "featured-image": "featured-image-on-ai-investments.png"
    },
    "createdAt": "2022-12-02T17:21:04.000Z",
    "published": false,
    "updatedAt": "2023-10-11T08:43:56.000Z",
    "revisionId": null,
    "publishedAt": "2023-03-29T09:00:00.000Z",
    "relatedCharts": [],
    "publicationContext": "listed"
}

{
    "id": "wp-54765",
    "slug": "brief-history-of-ai",
    "content": {
        "toc": [],
        "body": [
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Our World in Data presents the data and research to make progress against the world\u2019s largest problems.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "spanType": "span-newline"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": "This article draws on data and research discussed in our entry on ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/artificial-intelligence",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "Artificial Intelligence",
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                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
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                        "spanType": "span-bold"
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                    {
                        "text": ".",
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                        "text": "To see what the future might look like it is often helpful to study our history. This is what I will do in this article. I retrace the brief history of computers and artificial intelligence to see what we can expect for the future.",
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                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "How did we get here?",
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                "level": 3,
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                        "text": "How rapidly the world has changed becomes clear by how even quite recent computer technology feels ancient to us today. Mobile phones in the \u201890s were big bricks with tiny green displays. Two decades before that the main storage for computers was punch cards.\u00a0",
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                ],
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                        "text": "In a short period computers evolved so quickly and became such an integral part of our daily lives that it is easy to forget how recent this technology is. The first digital computers were only invented about eight decades ago, as the timeline shows.",
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                "size": "wide",
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                        "text": "Since the early days of this history, some computer scientists have strived to make machines as intelligent as humans. The next timeline shows some of the notable artificial intelligence (AI) systems and describes what they were capable of.\u00a0",
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                        "text": "The first system I mention is the Theseus. It was built by Claude Shannon in 1950 and was a remote-controlled mouse that was able to find its way out of a labyrinth and could remember its course.{ref}On the Theseus see Daniel Klein (2019) \u2013 ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                        "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20220125004420/https://www.technologyreview.com/2018/12/19/138508/mighty-mouse/",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Mighty mouse",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ", Published in MIT Technology Review. And ",
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                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_9_AEVQ_p74",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "this video on YouTube",
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                            }
                        ],
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                    },
                    {
                        "text": " of a presentation by its inventor Claude Shannon.{/ref} In seven decades the abilities of artificial intelligence have come a long way.",
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                "size": "wide",
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "The language and image recognition capabilities of AI systems have developed very rapidly",
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                                "text": "The chart shows how we got here by zooming into the last two decades of AI development. The plotted data stems from a number of tests in which human and AI performance were evaluated in five different domains, from handwriting recognition to language understanding.\u00a0",
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                                "text": "Within each of the five domains the initial performance of the AI system is set to -100, and human performance in these tests is used as a baseline that is set to zero. This means that when the model\u2019s performance crosses the zero line is when the AI system scored more points in the relevant test than the humans who did the same test.{ref}The chart shows that the speed with which these AI technologies developed increased over time. Systems for which development was started early \u2013 handwriting and\u00a0speech recognition \u2013 took more than a decade to approach human-level performance, while more recent AI developments led to systems that overtook humans in the span of only a few years. However one should not overstate this point. To some extent this is dependent on when the researchers started to compare machine and human performance. One could have started evaluating the system for language understanding much earlier and its development would appear much slower in this presentation of the data.{/ref}",
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                                "text": "Just 10 years ago, no machine could reliably provide language or image recognition at a human level. But, as the chart shows, AI systems have become steadily more capable and are now beating humans in ",
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                                        "text": "tests",
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                                "text": " in all these domains.{ref}It is important to remember that while these are remarkable achievements \u2014 and show very rapid gains \u2014 these are the results from specific benchmarking tests. Outside of tests, AI models can fail in surprising ways and do not reliably achieve performance that is comparable with human capabilities.{/ref}\u00a0",
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                                "text": "Outside of these standardized tests the performance of these AIs is mixed. In some real-world cases these systems are still performing much worse than humans. On the other hand, some implementations of such AI systems are already so cheap that they are available on the phone in your pocket: image recognition categorizes your photos and speech recognition transcribes what you dictate.",
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                                        "text": "Language and image recognition capabilities of AI systems have improved rapidly",
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                            {
                                "text": "{ref}Data from Kiela et al. (2021) \u2013 Dynabench: Rethinking Benchmarking in NLP. arXiv:2104.14337v1; ",
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                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2104.14337",
                                "children": [
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                                        "text": "https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2104.14337",
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                                "text": " {/ref}",
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "From image recognition to image generation",
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                "left": [
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                            {
                                "text": "The previous chart showed the rapid advances in the perceptive abilities of artificial intelligence. AI systems have also become much more capable of generating images.\u00a0",
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                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "This series of nine images shows the development over the last nine years. None of the people in these images exist; all of them were generated by an AI system.",
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                                "text": "The series begins with an image from 2014 in the top left, a primitive image of a pixelated face in black and white. As the first image in the second row shows, just three years later AI systems were already able to generate images that were hard to differentiate from a photograph.",
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                                "text": "In recent years, the capability of AI systems has become much more impressive still. While the early systems focused on generating images of faces, these newer models broadened their capabilities to text-to-image generation based on almost any prompt. The image in the bottom right shows that even the most challenging prompts \u2013 such as ",
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                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "\u201cA Pomeranian is sitting on the King\u2019s throne wearing a crown. Two tiger soldiers are standing next to the throne\u201d",
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                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-italic"
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                                "text": " \u2013 are turned into photorealistic images within seconds.{ref}Because these systems have become so powerful, the latest AI systems often don\u2019t allow the user to generate images of human faces to prevent abuse.{/ref}",
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                                        "text": "Timeline of images generated by artificial intelligence",
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                            {
                                "text": "{ref}The relevant publications are the following:",
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                                "text": "2014: Goodfellow et al:",
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                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/1406.2661",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": " Generative Adversarial Networks",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            }
                        ],
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                                "text": "2015: Radford, Metz, and Chintala:",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/1511.06434",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": " Unsupervised Representation Learning with Deep Convolutional Generative Adversarial Networks",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            }
                        ],
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                    {
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                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "2016: Liu and Tuzel:",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.07536",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": " Coupled Generative Adversarial Networks",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            }
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                            {
                                "text": "2017: Karras et al:",
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                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/1710.10196",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": " Progressive Growing of GANs for Improved Quality, Stability, and Variation",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
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                                "text": "2018: Karras, Laine, and Aila:",
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                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/1812.04948",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": " A Style-Based Generator Architecture for Generative Adversarial Networks",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": " (StyleGAN from NVIDIA)",
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                            }
                        ],
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                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "2019: Karras et al:",
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                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/1912.04958",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": " Analyzing and Improving the Image Quality of StyleGAN",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
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                        ],
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                    {
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                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "AI-generated faces generated by this technology can be found on ",
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                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://thispersondoesnotexist.com/",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "thispersondoesnotexist.com",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ".",
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                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "2020: Ho, Jain, and Abbeel:",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.11239",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": " Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models",
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                                ],
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                        ],
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                            {
                                "text": "2021: Ramesh et al:",
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                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2102.12092",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": " Zero-Shot Text-to-Image Generation",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": " (first DALL-E from OpenAI;",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://openai.com/blog/dall-e/",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": " blog post",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
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                            },
                            {
                                "text": "). See also Ramesh et al (2022) \u2013",
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                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://cdn.openai.com/papers/dall-e-2.pdf",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": " Hierarchical Text-Conditional Image Generation with CLIP Latents",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": " (DALL-E 2 from OpenAI;",
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                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://openai.com/dall-e-2/",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": " blog post",
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                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ").",
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                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "2022: Saharia et al: ",
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                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2205.11487",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "Photorealistic Text-to-Image Diffusion Models with Deep Language Understanding",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": " (Google\u2019s Imagen;",
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                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://imagen.research.google/",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": " blog post",
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                                    }
                                ],
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                            },
                            {
                                "text": "){/ref}",
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                            }
                        ],
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                    {
                        "alt": "",
                        "size": "wide",
                        "type": "image",
                        "filename": "Timeline-of-AI-generated-faces.png",
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                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "Language recognition and production is developing fast",
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                ],
                "type": "heading",
                "level": 3,
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            {
                "left": [
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Just as striking as the advances of image-generating AIs is the rapid development of systems that parse and respond to human language.\u00a0",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "parseErrors": []
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                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Shown in the image are examples from an AI system developed by Google called PaLM. In these six examples, the system was asked to explain six different jokes. I find the explanation in the bottom right particularly remarkable: the AI explains an anti-joke that is specifically meant to confuse the listener.",
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                                "text": "AIs that produce language have entered our world in many ways over the last few years. Emails get auto-completed, massive amounts of online texts get translated, videos get automatically transcribed, school children use language models to do their homework, reports get auto-generated, and media outlets ",
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                                "text": "AI systems are not yet able to produce long, coherent texts. In the future, we will see whether the recent developments will slow down \u2013 or even end \u2013 or whether we will one day read a bestselling novel written by an AI.",
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                                "text": "{ref}From Chowdhery et al (2022) \u2013",
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                                "text": ". Published on arXiv on 7 Apr 2022.{/ref}",
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                        "text": "Artificial intelligence is no longer a technology of the future; AI is here, and much of what is reality now would have looked like sci-fi just recently. It is a technology that already impacts all of us, and the list above includes just a few of its ",
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                        "text": "The wide range of listed applications makes clear that this is a very general technology that can be used by people for some extremely good goals \u2013 and some extraordinarily bad ones, too. For such \u2018dual use technologies\u2019, it is important that all of us develop an understanding of what is happening and how we want the technology to be used.",
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                        "text": "Just two decades ago the world was very different. What might AI technology be capable of in the future?",
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                        "text": "What is next?\u00a0",
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                                "text": "The AI systems that we just considered are the result of decades of steady advances in AI technology.\u00a0",
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                                "text": "The big chart below brings this history over the last eight decades into perspective. It is based on the dataset produced by Jaime Sevilla and colleagues.{ref}See the footnote on the title of the chart for the references and additional information.{/ref}",
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                                "text": "Each small circle in this chart represents one AI system. The circle\u2019s position on the horizontal axis indicates when the AI system was built, and its position on the vertical axis shows the amount of computation that was used to train the particular AI system.",
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                                "text": "Training computation is measured in ",
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                                "text": ", or FLOP for short. One FLOP is equivalent to one addition, subtraction, multiplication, or division of two decimal numbers.\u00a0",
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                                "text": "All AI systems that rely on machine learning need to be trained, and in these systems training computation is one of the three fundamental factors\u00a0that are driving the capabilities of the system. The other two factors are the algorithms and ",
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                                "text": " for the training. The visualization shows that as training computation has increased, AI systems have become more and more powerful.",
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                                "text": "The timeline goes back to the 1940s, the very beginning of electronic computers. The first shown AI system is \u2018Theseus\u2019, Claude Shannon\u2019s robotic mouse from 1950 that I mentioned at the beginning. Towards the other end of the timeline you find AI systems like DALL-E and PaLM, whose abilities to produce photorealistic images and interpret and generate language we have just seen. They are among the AI systems that used the largest amount of training computation to date.",
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                                "text": "The training computation is plotted on a logarithmic scale, so that from each grid-line to the next it shows a 100-fold increase. This long-run perspective shows a continuous increase. For the first six decades, training computation increased in line with ",
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                                        "text": "Moore\u2019s Law",
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                                "text": ", doubling roughly every 20 months. Since about 2010 this exponential growth has sped up further, to a doubling time of just about 6 months. That is an astonishingly fast rate of growth.{ref}At some point in the future, training computation is expected to slow down to the exponential growth rate of Moore's Law. Tamay Besiroglu, Lennart Heim and Jaime Sevilla of the Epoch team estimate in ",
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                                        "text": "their report",
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                                "text": " that the highest probability for this reversion occuring is in the early 2030s.{/ref}",
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                                "text": "The fast doubling times have accrued to large increases. PaLM\u2019s training computation was 2.5 billion petaFLOP, more than 5 million times larger than that of AlexNet, the AI with the largest training computation just 10 years earlier.{ref}The training computation of PaLM, developed in 2022, was 2,700,000,000 petaFLOP. The training computation of AlexNet, the AI with the largest training computation up to 2012, was 470 petaFLOP. 2,500,000,000 petaFLOP / 470 petaFLOP = 5,319,148.9. At the same time the amount of training computation required to achieve a given performance has been falling exponentially.",
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                                "text": "The costs have also increased quickly. The cost to train PaLM is estimated to be in the range of $9\u2013$23 million according to Lennart Heim, a researcher in the Epoch team. See: Lennart Heim (2022) \u2013 ",
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                                "text": "Scale-up was already exponential and has sped up substantially over the past decade. What can we learn from this historical development for the future of AI?",
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                                        "text": "The rise of artificial intelligence over the last 8 decades: As training computation has increased, AI systems have become more powerful",
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                                "text": "{ref}The data is taken from Jaime Sevilla, Lennart Heim, Anson Ho, Tamay Besiroglu, Marius Hobbhahn, Pablo Villalobos (2022) \u2013 ",
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                                "url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2202.05924.pdf",
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                                        "text": "Compute Trends Across Three eras of Machine Learning",
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                                "text": ". Published in arXiv on March 9, 2022. See also ",
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                                "url": "https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/XKtybmbjhC6mXDm5z/compute-trends-across-three-eras-of-machine-learning",
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                                        "text": "their post on the Alignment Forum",
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                                "text": "The authors regularly update and extend their dataset, a very helpful service to the AI research community. At Our World in Data my colleague Charlie Giattino regularly updates ",
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                            {
                                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/ai-training-computation",
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                                        "text": "the interactive version of this chart",
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                                "text": " with the latest data made available by Sevilla and coauthors.",
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                                "text": "See also these two related charts:",
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                                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/artificial-intelligence-parameter-count",
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                                        "text": "Number of parameters in notable artificial intelligence systems",
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                                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/artificial-intelligence-number-training-datapoints",
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                                        "text": "Number of datapoints used to train notable artificial intelligence systems",
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                                "text": "{/ref}",
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                        "text": "Studying the long-run trends to predict the future of AI",
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                        "text": "AI researchers study these long-term trends to see what is possible in the future.{ref}Scaling up the size of neural networks \u2013 in terms of the number of parameters and the amount of training data and computation \u2013 has led to surprising increases in the capabilities of AI systems. This realization motivated the \u201cscaling hypothesis.\u201d See Gwern Branwen (2020) \u2013 ",
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                        "url": "https://www.gwern.net/Scaling-hypothesis",
                        "children": [
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                                "text": "The Scaling Hypothesis",
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                        "text": "\u2060.{/ref}",
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                        "text": "Perhaps the most widely discussed study of this kind was published by AI researcher Ajeya Cotra. She studied the increase in training computation to ask at what point in time the computation to train an AI system could match that of the human brain. The idea is that at this point the AI system would match the capabilities of a human brain. In her latest update, Cotra estimated a 50% probability that such \u201ctransformative AI\u201d will be developed by the year 2040, less than two decades from now.{ref}Her research was announced in various places, including in the AI Alignment Forum here: Ajeya Cotra (2020) \u2013\u00a0",
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                        "url": "https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/KrJfoZzpSDpnrv9va/draft-report-on-ai-timelines",
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                                "text": "Draft report on AI timelines",
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                        "text": ". As far as I know the report itself always remained a \u2018draft report\u2019 and was published ",
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                                "text": "here on Google Docs",
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                        "text": ".\u00a0",
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                        "text": "The cited estimate stems from Cotra\u2019s ",
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                        "url": "https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/AfH2oPHCApdKicM4m/two-year-update-on-my-personal-ai-timelines",
                        "children": [
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                                "text": "Two-year update on my personal AI timelines",
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                        "text": ", in which she shortened her median timeline by 10 years.",
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                        "text": "Cotra emphasizes that there are substantial uncertainties around her estimates and therefore communicates her findings in a range of scenarios. She published her big study in 2020 and her median estimate at the time was that around the year 2050 there will be a 50%-probability that the computation required to train such a model may become affordable. In her \u201cmost conservative plausible\u201d-scenario this point in time is pushed back to around the year 2090 and in her \u201cmost aggressive plausible\u201d-scenario this point in time is reached in 2040.",
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                        "text": "The same is true for most other forecasters: all emphasize the large uncertainty associated with any of ",
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                                "text": "their forecasts",
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                        "text": "It is worth emphasizing that the computation of the human brain is highly uncertain. See Joseph Carlsmith's ",
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                        "url": "https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/new-report-on-how-much-computational-power-it-takes-to-match-the-human-brain/",
                        "children": [
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                                "text": "New Report on How Much Computational Power It Takes to Match the Human Brain",
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                        "text": " from 2020.{/ref}\u00a0",
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                        "text": "In ",
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                                "text": "a related article",
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                        "text": ", I discuss what transformative AI would mean for the world. In short, the idea is that such an AI system would be powerful enough to bring the world into a \u2018qualitatively different future\u2019. It could lead to a change at the scale of the two earlier major transformations in human history, the agricultural and industrial revolutions. It would certainly represent the most important global change in our lifetimes.",
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                        "text": "Cotra\u2019s work is particularly relevant in this context as she based her forecast on the kind of historical long-run trend of training computation that we just studied. But it is worth noting that other forecasters who rely on different considerations arrive at broadly similar conclusions. As I show in ",
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                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/ai-timelines",
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                                "text": "my article on AI timelines",
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                        "text": ", many AI experts believe that there is a real chance that human-level artificial intelligence will be developed within the next decades, and some believe that it will exist much sooner.",
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "Building a public resource to enable the necessary public conversation",
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                        "text": "Computers and artificial intelligence have changed our world immensely, but we are still at the early stages of this history. Because this technology feels so familiar, it is easy to forget that all of these technologies that we interact with are very recent innovations, and that most profound changes are yet to come.",
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                        "text": "Artificial intelligence has already changed what we see, what we know, and what we do. And this is despite the fact that this technology has had only a brief history.\u00a0",
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                        "text": "There are no signs that these trends are hitting any limits anytime soon. To the contrary, particularly over the course of the last decade, the fundamental trends have accelerated: investments in AI technology have ",
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                    {
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                                "text": "rapidly increased",
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                        "text": ", and the doubling time of training computation has shortened to just six months.",
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                        "text": "All major technological innovations lead to a range of positive and negative consequences. This is already true of artificial intelligence. As this technology becomes more and more powerful, we should expect its impact to become greater still.\u00a0",
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                        "text": "Because of the importance of AI, we should all be able to form an opinion on where this technology is heading and to understand how this development is changing our world. For this purpose, we are building a repository of AI-related metrics, which you can find on ",
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                        "url": "http://ourworldindata.org/artificial-intelligence",
                        "children": [
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                                "text": "OurWorldinData.org/artificial-intelligence",
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                        "text": ".\u00a0",
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                        "text": "We are still in the early stages of this history and much of what will become possible is yet to come. A technological development as powerful as this should be at the center of our attention. Little might be as important for how the future of our world \u2013 and the future of our lives \u2013 will play out.",
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                        "children": [
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                                "text": "Acknowledgements:",
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                        ],
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                    {
                        "text": " I would like to thank my colleagues Natasha Ahuja, Daniel Bachler, Julia Broden, Charlie Giattino, Bastian Herre, Edouard Mathieu, and Ike Saunders for their helpful comments to drafts of this essay and their contributions in preparing the visualizations.",
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        ],
        "type": "article",
        "title": "The brief history of artificial intelligence: The world has changed fast \u2013 what might be next?",
        "authors": [
            "Max Roser"
        ],
        "excerpt": "Despite their brief history, computers and AI have fundamentally changed what we see, what we know, and what we do. Little is as important for the future of the world, and our own lives, as how this history continues.",
        "dateline": "December 6, 2022",
        "subtitle": "Despite their brief history, computers and AI have fundamentally changed what we see, what we know, and what we do. Little is as important for the future of the world, and our own lives, as how this history continues.",
        "sidebar-toc": false,
        "featured-image": "featured-image-ai-training-computation.png"
    },
    "createdAt": "2022-12-02T12:33:16.000Z",
    "published": false,
    "updatedAt": "2023-07-31T13:05:20.000Z",
    "revisionId": null,
    "publishedAt": "2022-12-06T01:00:00.000Z",
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{
    "id": "wp-54759",
    "slug": "ai-impact",
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        "body": [
            {
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "Our World in Data presents the data and research to make progress against the world\u2019s largest problems.",
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                        "spanType": "span-newline"
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                        "text": "This article draws on data and research discussed in our entry on ",
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                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/artificial-intelligence",
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                                        "text": "Artificial Intelligence",
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                        "text": "Why should you care about the development of artificial intelligence?",
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                        "text": "Think about what the alternative would look like. If you and the wider public do not get informed and engaged, then we leave it to a few entrepreneurs and engineers to decide how this technology will transform our world.",
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                        "text": "That is the status quo. This small number of people at a few tech firms directly working on artificial intelligence (AI) do understand how extraordinarily powerful this technology is ",
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                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/brief-history-of-ai",
                        "children": [
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                                "text": "becoming",
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                        "text": ". If the rest of society does not become engaged, then it will be this small elite who decides how this technology will change our lives.",
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                        "text": "To change this status quo, I want to answer three questions in this article: Why is it hard to take the prospect of a world transformed by AI seriously? How can we imagine such a world? And what is at stake as this technology becomes more powerful?",
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                        "text": "Why is it hard to take the prospect of a world transformed by artificial intelligence seriously?",
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                        "text": "In some way, it should be obvious how technology can fundamentally transform the world. We just have to look at how much the world has already changed. If you could invite a family of hunter-gatherers from 20,000 years ago on your next flight, they would be pretty surprised. Technology has changed our world already, so we should expect that it can happen again.",
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                        "text": "But while we have seen the world transform before, we have seen these transformations play out over the course of generations. What is different now is how very rapid these technological changes have become. In the past, the technologies that our ancestors used in their childhood were still central to their lives in their old age. This has not been the case anymore for recent generations. Instead, it has ",
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                        "children": [
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                                "text": "become common",
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                        "text": " that technologies unimaginable in one's youth become ordinary in later life.",
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                        "text": "This is the first reason we might not take the prospect seriously: it is easy to underestimate the speed at which technology can change the world.",
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                        "text": "The second reason why it is difficult to take the possibility of transformative AI \u2013 potentially even AI as intelligent as humans \u2013 seriously is that it is an idea that we first heard in the cinema. It is not surprising that for many of us, the first reaction to a scenario in which machines have human-like capabilities is the same as if you had asked us to take seriously a future in which vampires, werewolves, or zombies roam the planet.{ref}This problem becomes even larger when we try to imagine how a future with a human-level AI might play out. Any ",
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                                "text": "particular",
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                        "text": " scenario will not only involve the idea that this powerful AI exists, but a whole range of additional assumptions about the future context in which this happens. It is therefore hard to communicate a scenario of a world with human-level AI that does not sound contrived, bizarre or even silly.{/ref}",
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                        "text": "But, it is plausible that it is both the stuff of sci-fi fantasy ",
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                                "text": "and",
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                        "text": " the central invention that could arrive in our, or our children\u2019s, lifetimes.\u00a0",
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                        "text": "The third reason why it is difficult to take this prospect seriously is by failing to see that powerful AI could lead to very large changes. This is also understandable. It is difficult to form an idea of a future that is very different from our own time. There are two concepts that I find helpful in imagining a very different future with artificial intelligence. Let\u2019s look at both of them.",
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "How to develop an idea of what the future of artificial intelligence might look like?",
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                        "text": "When thinking about the future of artificial intelligence, I find it helpful to consider two different concepts in particular: human-level AI, and transformative AI.{ref}Both of these concepts are widely used in the scientific literature on artificial intelligence. For example, questions about the timelines for the development of future AI are often framed using these terms. See ",
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                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/ai-timelines",
                        "children": [
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                                "text": "my article on this topic",
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                        "text": ".{/ref} The first concept highlights the AI\u2019s capabilities and anchors them to a familiar benchmark, while transformative AI emphasizes the impact that this technology would have on the world.",
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                        "text": "From where we are today, much of this may sound like science fiction. It is therefore worth keeping in mind that the majority of surveyed AI experts ",
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                    {
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                                "text": "believe",
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                        "text": " there is a real chance that human-level artificial intelligence will be developed within the next decades, and some believe that it will exist much sooner.",
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                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "The advantages and disadvantages of comparing machine and human intelligence",
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                        "text": "One way to think about human-level artificial intelligence is to contrast it with the current state of AI technology. While today\u2019s AI systems often have capabilities similar to a particular, limited part of the human mind, a human-level AI would be a machine that is capable of carrying out the same ",
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                                "text": "range",
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                        "text": " of intellectual tasks that we humans are capable of.{ref}The fact that humans are capable of a ",
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                                "text": "range",
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                        "text": " of intellectual tasks means that you arrive at different definitions of intelligence depending on which aspect within that range you focus on (the ",
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                        "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligence",
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                                "text": "Wikipedia entry on intelligence",
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                        "text": ", for example, lists a number of definitions from various researchers and different disciplines). As a consequence there are also various definitions of \u2018human-level AI\u2019.\u00a0",
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                        "text": "There are also several closely related terms: Artificial General Intelligence, High-Level Machine Intelligence, Strong AI, or Full AI are sometimes synonymously used, and sometimes defined in similar, yet different ways. In specific discussions, it is necessary to define this concept more narrowly; for example, in ",
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                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/ai-timelines",
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                                "text": "studies on AI timelines",
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                        "text": " researchers offer more precise definitions of what human-level AI refers to in their particular study.{/ref} It is a machine that would be \u201cable to learn to do anything that a human can do,\u201d as Norvig and Russell put it in their textbook on AI.{ref}Peter Norvig and Stuart Russell (2021) \u2014 Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach. Fourth edition. Published by Pearson.{/ref}",
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                        "text": "Taken together, the range of abilities that characterize intelligence gives humans the ability to solve problems and achieve a wide variety of goals. A human-level AI would therefore be a system that could solve all those problems that we humans can solve, and do the tasks that humans do today. Such a machine, or collective of machines, would be able to do the work of a translator, an accountant, an illustrator, a teacher, a therapist, a truck driver, or the work of a trader on the world\u2019s financial markets. Like us, it would also be able to do research and science, and to develop new technologies based on that.",
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                        "text": "The concept of human-level AI has some clear advantages. Using the familiarity of our own intelligence as a reference provides us with some clear guidance on how to imagine the capabilities of this technology.\u00a0",
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                        "text": "However, it also has clear disadvantages. Anchoring the imagination of future AI systems to the familiar reality of human intelligence carries the risk that it obscures the very real differences between them.\u00a0",
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                        "text": "Some of these differences are obvious. For example, AI systems will have the immense memory of computer systems, against which our own capacity to store information pales. Another obvious difference is the speed at which a machine can absorb and process information. But information storage and processing speed are not the only differences. The domains in which machines already outperform humans is steadily increasing: in chess, after matching the level of the best human players in the late 90s, AI systems ",
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                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/computer-chess-ability",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "reached",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " superhuman levels more than a decade ago. In other games like Go or complex strategy games, this has happened more recently.{ref}The AI system ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AlphaGo",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "AlphaGo",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ", and its various successors, won against Go masters. The AI system ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pluribus_(poker_bot)",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Pluribus",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " beat humans at no-limit Texas hold 'em poker. The AI system Cicero can strategize and use human language to win the strategy game Diplomacy. See: Meta Fundamental AI Research Diplomacy Team (FAIR), Anton Bakhtin, Noam Brown, Emily Dinan, Gabriele Farina, Colin Flaherty, Daniel Fried, et al. (2022) \u2013 \u2018Human-Level Play in the Game of Diplomacy by Combining Language Models with Strategic Reasoning\u2019. In ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Science",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-italic"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " 0, no. 0 (22 November 2022): eade9097.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://doi.org/10.1126/science.ade9097",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": " https://doi.org/10.1126/science.ade9097",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ".{/ref}",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "These differences mean that an AI that is at least as good as humans in every domain would overall be much more powerful than the human mind. Even the first \u201chuman-level AI\u201d would therefore be quite superhuman in many ways.{ref}This also poses a problem when we evaluate how the intelligence of a machine compares with the intelligence of humans. If intelligence was a general ability, a single capacity, then we could easily compare and evaluate it, but the fact that it is a range of skills makes it much more difficult to compare across machine and human intelligence. Tests for AI systems are therefore comprising a wide range of tasks. See for example Dan Hendrycks, Collin Burns, Steven Basart, Andy Zou, Mantas Mazeika, Dawn Song, Jacob Steinhardt (2020) \u2013\u00a0",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.03300",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Measuring Massive Multitask Language Understanding",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " or the definition of what would qualify as artificial general intelligence in ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "this Metaculus prediction",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ".{/ref}",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                ],
                "parseErrors": []
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Human intelligence is also a bad metaphor for machine intelligence in other ways. The way we think is often very different from machines, and as a consequence the output of thinking machines can be very alien to us.",
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                ],
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
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                        "text": "Most perplexing and most concerning are the strange and unexpected ways in which machine intelligence can fail. The AI-generated image of the horse below provides an example: on the one hand, AIs can do what no human can do \u2013 produce an image of anything, in any style (here photorealistic), in mere seconds \u2013 but on the other hand it can fail in ways that no human would fail.{ref}An overview of how AI systems can fail can be found in ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://spectrum.ieee.org/ai-failures",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Charles Choi \u2013 7 Revealing Ways AIs Fail",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ". It is also worth reading through the ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://www.aiaaic.org/aiaaic-repository/ai-and-algorithmic-incidents-and-controversies",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "AIAAIC Repository",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " which \u201cdetails recent incidents and controversies driven by or relating to AI, algorithms, and automation.\"{/ref} No human would make the mistake of drawing a horse with five legs.{ref}I have taken this example from ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://fchollet.com/",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "AI researcher Fran\u00e7ois Chollet",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ", who published it ",
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                        "url": "https://twitter.com/fchollet/status/1573752180720312320?s=46&t=qPwLwDgLdJrLlXxa878BDQ",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "here",
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                        "text": ".{/ref}",
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                "parseErrors": []
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Imagining a powerful future AI as just another human would therefore likely be a mistake. The differences might be so large that it will be a misnomer to call such systems \u201chuman-level.\u201d",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "AI-generated image of a horse",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-bold"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": "{ref}Via ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://fchollet.com/",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Fran\u00e7ois Chollet",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ", who published it ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://twitter.com/fchollet/status/1573752180720312320?s=46&t=qPwLwDgLdJrLlXxa878BDQ",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "here",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
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                    {
                        "text": ". Based on Chollet\u2019s comments it seems that this image was created by the AI system \u2018Stable Diffusion\u2019.{/ref}",
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                "parseErrors": []
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                "alt": "A brown horse running in a grassy field. The horse appears to have five legs.",
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            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "Transformative artificial intelligence is defined by the impact this technology would have on the world",
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                    }
                ],
                "type": "heading",
                "level": 3,
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                        "text": "In contrast, the concept of transformative AI is not based on a comparison with human intelligence. This has the advantage of sidestepping the problems that the comparisons with our own mind bring. But it has the disadvantage that it is harder to imagine what such a system would look like and be capable of. It requires more from us. It requires us to imagine a world with intelligent actors that are potentially very different from ourselves.",
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                        "text": "Transformative AI is not defined by any specific capabilities, but by the real-world impact that the AI would have. To qualify as transformative, researchers think of it as AI that is \u201cpowerful enough to bring us into a new, qualitatively different future.\u201d{ref}This quote is from Holden Karnofsky (2021) \u2013 ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://www.cold-takes.com/where-ai-forecasting-stands-today/",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "AI Timelines: Where the Arguments, and the \"Experts,\" Stand",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ". For Holden Karnofsky\u2019s earlier thinking on this conceptualization of AI see his 2016 article ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/some-background-on-our-views-regarding-advanced-artificial-intelligence/#Sec1",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "\u2018Some Background on Our Views Regarding Advanced Artificial Intelligence\u2019",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
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                    {
                        "text": ".",
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                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Ajeya Cotra, whose research on AI timelines I discuss in other articles of this series, attempts to give a quantitative definition of what would qualify as transformative AI. in her widely cited ",
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                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/KrJfoZzpSDpnrv9va/draft-report-on-ai-timelines",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "report on AI timelines",
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                    {
                        "text": " she defines it as a change in software technology that brings the growth rate of gross world product \"to 20%-30% per year\". Several other researchers define TAI in similar terms.{/ref}\u00a0",
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "In humanity\u2019s history, there have been two cases of such major transformations, the agricultural and the industrial revolutions.",
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                        "text": "Transformative AI becoming a reality would be an event on that scale. Like the arrival of agriculture 10,000 years ago, or the transition from hand- to machine-manufacturing, it would be an event that would change the world for billions of people around the globe and for the entire trajectory of ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/longtermism",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "humanity\u2019s future",
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                            }
                        ],
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                        "text": ".",
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                        "text": "Technologies that fundamentally change how a wide range of goods or services are produced are called \u2018general-purpose technologies\u2019. The two previous transformative events were caused by the discovery of two particularly significant general-purpose technologies: the change in food production as humanity transitioned from hunting and gathering to farming, and the rise of machine manufacturing in the industrial revolution. Based on the evidence and arguments presented in ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/artificial-intelligence#research-writing",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "this series",
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                        ],
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                        "text": " on AI development, I believe it is plausible that powerful AI could represent the introduction of a similarly significant general-purpose technology.",
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                        "children": [
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                                "text": "Timeline of the three transformative events in world history",
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            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "A future of human-level or transformative AI?",
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                "type": "heading",
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                        "text": "The two concepts are closely related, but they are not the same. The creation of a human-level AI would certainly have a transformative impact on our world. If the work of most humans could be carried out by an AI, the lives of millions of people would change.{ref}Human-level AI is typically defined as a software system that can carry out at least 90% or 99% of all economically relevant tasks that humans carry out. A lower-bar definition would be an AI system that can carry out all those tasks that can currently be done by another human who is working remotely on a computer.{/ref}",
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "The opposite, however, is not true: we might see transformative AI without developing human-level AI. Since the human mind is in many ways a poor metaphor for the intelligence of machines, we might plausibly develop transformative AI before we develop human-level AI. Depending on how this goes, this might mean that we will never see any machine intelligence for which human intelligence is a helpful comparison.",
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                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "When and if AI systems might reach either of these levels is of course difficult to predict. In my ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/ai-timelines",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "companion article",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                        ],
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                    {
                        "text": " on this question, I give an overview of what researchers in this field currently believe. Many AI experts believe there is a real chance that such systems will be developed within the next decades, and some believe that they will exist much sooner.",
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                ],
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                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "What is at stake as artificial intelligence becomes more powerful?",
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                "type": "heading",
                "level": 2,
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                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "All major technological innovations lead to a range of positive and negative consequences. For AI, the spectrum of possible outcomes \u2013 from the most negative to the most positive \u2013 is extraordinarily wide.\u00a0",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "That the use of AI technology can cause harm is clear, because it is already happening.\u00a0",
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                ],
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                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "AI systems can cause harm when people use them maliciously. For example, when they are used in politically-motivated disinformation campaigns or to enable mass surveillance.{ref}On the use of AI in politically-motivated disinformation campaigns see for example John Villasenor (November 2020) \u2013 ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20220907044354/https://www.brookings.edu/research/how-to-deal-with-ai-enabled-disinformation/",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "How to deal with AI-enabled disinformation",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ". More generally on this topic see Brundage and Avin et al. (2018) \u2013 The Malicious Use of Artificial Intelligence: Forecasting, Prevention, and Mitigation, published at ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://maliciousaireport.com/",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "maliciousaireport.com",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ". A starting point for literature and reporting on mass surveillance by governments is ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_government_mass_surveillance_projects",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "the relevant Wikipedia entry",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ".{/ref}",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                        "text": "But AI systems can also cause unintended harm, when they act differently than intended or fail. For example, in the Netherlands the authorities used an AI system which falsely claimed that an estimated 26,000 parents made fraudulent claims for child care benefits. The false allegations led to hardship for many poor families, and also resulted in the resignation of the Dutch government in 2021.{ref}See for example the ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_childcare_benefits_scandal",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Wikipedia entry",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " on the \u2018Dutch childcare benefits scandal\u2019 and Melissa Heikkil\u00e4 (2022) \u2013 ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20221117053636/https://www.politico.eu/article/dutch-scandal-serves-as-a-warning-for-europe-over-risks-of-using-algorithms/",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "\u2018Dutch scandal serves as a warning for Europe over risks of using algorithms\u2019",
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                        ],
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                    {
                        "text": ", in Politico. The technology can also reinforce discrimination in terms of race and gender. See Brian Christian\u2019s book The Alignment Problem and the ",
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                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ainowinstitute.org/reports.html",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "reports of the AI Now Institute",
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                        "text": ".{/ref}",
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                        "text": "As AI becomes more powerful, the possible negative impacts could become much larger. Many of these risks have rightfully received public attention: more powerful AI could lead to mass labor displacement, or extreme concentrations of power and wealth. In the hands of autocrats, it could empower totalitarianism through its suitability for mass surveillance and control.\u00a0",
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                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "The so-called ",
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                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "alignment problem",
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                    {
                        "text": " of AI is another extreme risk. This is the concern that ",
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                    {
                        "children": [
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                                "text": "nobody",
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                        "text": " would be able to control a powerful AI system, even if the AI takes actions that harm us humans, or humanity as a whole. This risk is unfortunately receiving little attention from the wider public, but it is seen as an extremely large risk by many leading AI researchers.{ref}Overviews are provided in Stuart Russell (2019) \u2013 Human Compatible (especially chapter 5) and Brian Christian\u2019s 2020 book ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Alignment_Problem",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "The Alignment Problem",
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                        "text": ". Christian presents the thinking of many leading AI researchers from the earliest days up to now and presents an excellent overview of this problem. It is also seen as a large risk by some of the leading private firms who work towards powerful AI \u2013 see OpenAI's article \"",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://openai.com/blog/our-approach-to-alignment-research/",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Our approach to alignment research",
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                        "text": "\" from August 2022.{/ref}",
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "How could an AI possibly escape human control and end up harming humans?",
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                        "text": "The risk is not that an AI becomes self-aware, develops bad intentions, and \u201cchooses\u201d to do this. The risk is that we try to instruct the AI to pursue some specific goal \u2013 even a very worthwhile one \u2013 and in the pursuit of that goal it ends up harming humans. It is about unintended consequences. The AI does what we told it to do, but not what we wanted it to do.",
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                "parseErrors": []
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "Can\u2019t we just tell the AI to not do those things? It is definitely possible to build an AI that avoids any particular problem we foresee, but it is hard to foresee ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "all",
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                    {
                        "text": " the possible harmful unintended consequences. The alignment problem arises because of \u201cthe impossibility of defining true human purposes correctly and completely,\u201d as AI researcher Stuart Russell puts it.{ref}Stuart Russell (2019) \u2013 Human Compatible{/ref}",
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                        "text": "Can\u2019t we then just switch off the AI? This might also not be possible. That is because a powerful AI would know two things: it faces a risk that humans could turn it off, and it can\u2019t achieve its goals once it has been turned off. As a consequence, the AI will pursue a very fundamental goal of ensuring that it won\u2019t be switched off. This is why, once we realize that an extremely intelligent AI is causing unintended harm in the pursuit of some specific goal, it might not be possible to turn it off or change what the system does.{ref}A question that follows from this is, why build such a powerful AI in the first place?\u00a0",
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                ],
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                        "text": "The incentives are very high. As I emphasize below, this innovation has the potential to lead to very positive developments. In addition to the large social benefits there are also large incentives for those who develop it \u2013 the governments that can use it for their goals, the individuals who can use it to become more powerful and wealthy. Additionally, it is of scientific interest and might help us to understand our own mind and intelligence better. And lastly, even if we wanted to stop building powerful AIs, it is likely very hard to actually achieve it. It is very hard to coordinate across the whole world and agree to stop building more advanced AI \u2013 countries around the world would have to agree and then find ways to actually implement it.{/ref}",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "This risk \u2013 that humanity might not be able to stay in control once AI becomes very powerful, and that this might lead to an extreme catastrophe \u2013 has been recognized right from the early days of AI research more than 70 years ago.{ref}In 1950 the computer science pioneer Alan Turing put it like this: ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "\u201cIf a machine can think, it might think more intelligently than we do, and then where should we be? \u2026 [T]his new danger is much closer. If it comes at all it will almost certainly be within the next millennium. It is remote but not astronomically remote, and is certainly something which can give us anxiety. It is customary, in a talk or article on this subject, to offer a grain of comfort, in the form of a statement that some particularly human characteristic could never be imitated by a machine. \u2026 I cannot offer any such comfort, for I believe that no such bounds can be set.\u201d",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-italic"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " Alan. M. Turing (1950) \u2013 ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://doi.org/10.1093/mind/LIX.236.433",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Computing Machinery and Intelligence",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ", In Mind, Volume LIX, Issue 236, October 1950, Pages 433\u2013460.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Norbert Wiener is another pioneer who saw the alignment problem very early. One way he put it was \u201cIf we use, to achieve our purposes, a mechanical agency with whose operation we cannot interfere effectively \u2026 we had better be quite sure that the purpose put into the machine is the purpose which we really desire.\u201d quoted from Norbert Wiener (1960) \u2013 Some Moral and Technical Consequences of Automation: As machines learn they may develop unforeseen strategies at rates that baffle their programmers. In Science.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
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                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "In 1950 \u2013 the same year in which Turing published the cited article \u2013 Wiener published his book The Human Use of Human Beings, whose front-cover blurb reads: \u201cThe \u2018mechanical brain\u2019 and similar machines can destroy human values or enable us to realize them as never before.\u201d{/ref} The very rapid development of AI in recent years has made a solution to this problem much more urgent.",
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                        "text": "I have tried to summarize some of the risks of AI, but a short article is not enough space to address all possible questions. Especially on the very worst risks of AI systems, and what we can do now to reduce them, I recommend reading the book ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://brianchristian.org/the-alignment-problem/",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "The Alignment Problem",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " by Brian Christian and Benjamin Hilton\u2019s article ",
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                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://80000hours.org/problem-profiles/artificial-intelligence",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "\u2018Preventing an AI-related catastrophe\u2019",
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                        "text": ".",
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                    {
                        "text": "If we manage to avoid these risks, transformative AI could also lead to very positive consequences. Advances in science and technology were crucial to ",
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                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/a-history-of-global-living-conditions-in-5-charts",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "the many positive developments",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " in humanity\u2019s history. If artificial ingenuity can augment our own, it could help us make progress on the many large problems we face: from cleaner energy, to the replacement of unpleasant work, to much better healthcare.",
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                        "text": "This extremely large contrast between the possible positives and negatives makes clear that the stakes are unusually high with this technology. Reducing the negative risks and solving the alignment problem could mean the difference between a healthy, flourishing, and wealthy future for humanity \u2013 and the destruction of the same.\u00a0",
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                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "How can we make sure that the development of AI goes well?",
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                ],
                "type": "heading",
                "level": 2,
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                        "text": "Making sure that the development of artificial intelligence goes well is not just one of the most crucial questions of our time, but likely one of the most crucial questions in human history. This needs public resources \u2013 public funding, public attention, and public engagement.",
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                        "text": "Currently, almost all resources that are dedicated to AI aim to speed up the development of this technology. Efforts that aim to increase the safety of AI systems, on the other hand, do not receive the resources they need. Researcher Toby Ord estimated that in 2020 between $10 to $50 million was spent on work to address the alignment problem.{ref}Toby Ord \u2013 ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://theprecipice.com/",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "The Precipice",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ". He makes this projection in footnote 55 of chapter 2. It is based on the 2017 estimate by Farquhar.{/ref} Corporate AI investment in the same year was more than 2000-times larger, it ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/corporate-investment-in-artificial-intelligence-by-type",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "summed up",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " to $153 billion.\u00a0",
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                    }
                ],
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "This is not only the case for the AI alignment problem. The work on the entire range of negative social consequences from AI is under-resourced compared to the large investments to increase the power and use of AI systems.",
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                        "text": "It is frustrating and concerning for society as a whole that AI safety work is extremely neglected and that little public funding is dedicated to this crucial field of research. On the other hand, for each ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "children": [
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                                "text": "individual",
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                        ],
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                    {
                        "text": " person this neglect means that they have a good chance to actually make a positive difference, if they dedicate themselves to this problem now. And while the field of AI safety is small, it does provide ",
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                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://80000hours.org/problem-profiles/artificial-intelligence/#what-can-you-do-concretely-to-help",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "good resources",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " on what you can do concretely if you want to work on this problem.",
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                        "text": "I hope that more people dedicate their individual careers to this cause, but it needs more than individual efforts. A technology that is transforming our society needs to be a central interest of all of us. As a society we have to think more about the societal impact of AI, become knowledgeable about the technology, and understand what is at stake.\u00a0",
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "When our children look back at today, I imagine that they will find it difficult to understand how little attention and resources we dedicated to the development of safe AI. I hope that this changes in the coming years, and that we begin to dedicate more resources to making sure that powerful AI gets developed in a way that benefits us and the next generations.",
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                ],
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "If we fail to develop this broad-based understanding, then it will remain the small elite that finances and builds this technology that will determine how one of the \u2013 or plausibly ",
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                    },
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "the",
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                        ],
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                    {
                        "text": " \u2013 most powerful technology in human history will transform our world.",
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                ],
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                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "With our work at Our World in Data we want to do our small part to enable a better informed public conversation on AI and the future we want to live in. You can find these resources on ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/artificial-intelligence",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "OurWorldinData.org/artificial-intelligence",
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                "type": "text",
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                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Acknowledgements:",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-bold"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " I would like to thank my colleagues Daniel Bachler, Charlie Giattino, and Edouard Mathieu for their helpful comments to drafts of this essay.",
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                    }
                ],
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        ],
        "type": "article",
        "title": "Artificial intelligence is transforming our world \u2014 it is on all of us to make sure that it goes well",
        "authors": [
            "Max Roser"
        ],
        "excerpt": "How AI gets built is currently decided by a small group of technologists. As this technology is transforming our lives, it should be in all of our interest to become informed and engaged.",
        "dateline": "December 15, 2022",
        "subtitle": "How AI gets built is currently decided by a small group of technologists. As this technology is transforming our lives, it should be in all of our interest to become informed and engaged.",
        "sidebar-toc": false,
        "featured-image": "featured-image-Timeline-of-Transformative-Events-1.png"
    },
    "createdAt": "2022-12-02T12:25:34.000Z",
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    "updatedAt": "2023-10-11T08:43:04.000Z",
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{
    "id": "wp-54733",
    "slug": "redesign-environmental-impacts-food",
    "content": {
        "toc": [],
        "body": [],
        "type": "article",
        "title": "We published a redesign of our work on the Environmental Impacts of Food",
        "authors": [
            "Hannah Ritchie",
            "Pablo Rosado"
        ],
        "excerpt": "We published a major redesign of our work on the Environmental Impacts of Food. Explore all of our data and research in one place.",
        "dateline": "February 23, 2023",
        "subtitle": "We published a major redesign of our work on the Environmental Impacts of Food. Explore all of our data and research in one place.",
        "sidebar-toc": false,
        "featured-image": "Environmental-Impacts-of-Food-Production-Thumbnail.png"
    },
    "createdAt": "2022-12-02T05:31:12.000Z",
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    "publishedAt": "2023-02-23T12:00:00.000Z",
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{
    "id": "wp-54697",
    "slug": "elephant-populations",
    "content": {
        "toc": [],
        "body": [
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Elephants are the world\u2019s largest living land animals, weighing in at",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://d2ouvy59p0dg6k.cloudfront.net/downloads/african_elephant_factsheet2007w.pdf",
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                            {
                                "text": " up to 7.5 tonnes",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ".{ref}African elephants are typically bigger than the Asian species. African elephants can weigh up to 7.5 tonnes; Asian elephants",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "http://wwf.panda.org/knowledge_hub/endangered_species/elephants/asian_elephants/",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": " up to 5 tonnes",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ".{/ref}\u00a0",
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                    }
                ],
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "Their size has made them a prime target for poaching. History has shown us that it is usually the largest mammals that are most at risk from human hunting. Elephants are no different. We hunt them for their meat, their trunks, and their lucrative tusks.",
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "There are around 450,000 elephants in the world. But this is a tiny fraction of how many there used to be.",
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "In this article we look at the state of elephant populations, and how these populations have changed over time.",
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "State of elephant populations today",
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                                "text": "There are two species of elephant: the African (with the official name ",
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                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "Loxodonta africana",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ") and the Asian (",
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                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "Elephas maximus",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ") elephant.\u00a0",
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                            }
                        ],
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "If you want to tell the difference between them, look at their ears: the African elephant has much bigger ears, very similar in shape to the African continent; the Asian elephant has much smaller, rounded ears.{ref}Elephants dissipate heat via their ears, and so use them for temperature regulation. The reason that African elephants have larger ears is that they live in warmer climates and therefore need to dissipate more heat.{/ref} Their tusks are also a useful indicator: both male and female African elephants can grow tusks, but only male Asian ones can.",
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                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "In the table, I have summarized the status of their populations.",
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                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "There are around ten times as many African than Asian elephants in the world. In 2015, there were",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "http://africanelephantdatabase.org/report/2016/Africa",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": " around 415,000",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": " African elephants left. For the Asian species, this is in the range of",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "http://wwf.panda.org/knowledge_hub/endangered_species/elephants/asian_elephants/",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": " 40,000 to 50,000",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                            },
                            {
                                "text": ".",
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                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "The Asian elephant is",
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                            {
                                "url": "https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/7140/12828813",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": " classified as",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": " \u2018endangered\u2019, one level down from \u2018critically endangered\u2019 before extinction, on the IUCN Red List.{ref}Choudhury, A., Lahiri Choudhury, D.K., Desai, A., Duckworth, J.W., Easa, P.S., Johnsingh, A.J.T., Fernando, P., Hedges, S., Gunawardena, M., Kurt, F., Karanth, U., Lister, A., Menon, V., Riddle, H., R\u00fcbel, A. & Wikramanayake, E. (IUCN SSC Asian Elephant Specialist Group) 2008.",
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                            },
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                                "url": "https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/7140/12828813",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": " ",
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                                    },
                                    {
                                        "children": [
                                            {
                                                "text": "Elephas maximus",
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                                        ],
                                        "spanType": "span-italic"
                                    }
                                ],
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                            },
                            {
                                "text": ". ",
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                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": " 2008.{/ref}\u00a0The African elephant was previously treated as a single species, but has",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://www.iucn.org/news/species/202103/african-elephant-species-now-endangered-and-critically-endangered-iucn-red-list",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": " recently been separated",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": " into the African forest elephant (Loxodonta cyclotis) and African savanna elephant (Loxodonta africana) for evaluation. The forest elephant is listed as \u2018critically endangered\u2019 and the savanna elephant as \u2018endangered\u2019. The populations of both species are declining.",
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                            }
                        ],
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                ],
                "type": "sticky-right",
                "right": [
                    {
                        "type": "html",
                        "value": "<div class=\"raw-html-table__container\"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>Elephant species</strong></td><td><strong>Population</strong><strong><br></strong><strong> (latest estimate)</strong></td><td><strong>Extinction risk</strong></td><td><strong>Population trend</strong></td></tr><tr><td>African elephant<br>(<em>Loxodonta africana</em>)</td><td>415,000</td><td><em>By subspecies below</em></td><td><em>By subspecies below</em></td></tr><tr><td><em>African forest elephant (Loxodonta cyclotis)</em></td><td></td><td>Critically endangered</td><td>Decreasing</td></tr><tr><td><em>African savanna elephant (Loxodonta africana)</em></td><td></td><td>Endangered</td><td>Decreasing</td></tr><tr><td>Asian elephant<br>(<em>Elephas maximus</em>)</td><td>40,000 - 50,000</td><td>Endangered</td><td>Decreasing</td></tr></tbody></table></div>",
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                ],
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            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "Are elephant populations increasing or decreasing?",
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                    }
                ],
                "type": "heading",
                "level": 2,
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "To understand the vulnerability of elephant populations, knowing the the number of animals alive today is not enough. We also need to know the direction and rate of change. If population numbers are falling quickly, we should be concerned even if there are hundreds of thousands left.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Let\u2019s take a look at the African and Asian elephant species one by one.",
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                    }
                ],
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            },
            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "African elephant (",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Loxodonta africana",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-italic"
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                    {
                        "text": ")",
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "There are ten times as many African elephants as Asian elephants in the world. That makes them seem abundant. But their numbers are a tiny fraction of what they were in the past.",
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "African elephant populations have shrunk by 98% since 1500. We see this in the chart.{ref}The main sources of data for African elephant populations are the",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "http://www.greatelephantcensus.com/",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": " Great Elephant Census",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " and the IUCN SSC African Elephant Specialist Group (",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                    {
                        "url": "https://www.iucn.org/ssc-groups/mammals/specialist-groups-a-e/african-elephant/about-us",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "AfESG",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": "). The AfESG gathers population estimates by country every few years, publishing it in an",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "http://africanelephantdatabase.org/",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": " African Elephant Database",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ", and African Elephant Status Report. You can find the latest African Elephant Status Report (2016)",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://portals.iucn.org/library/sites/library/files/documents/SSC-OP-060_A.pdf",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": " here",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                    {
                        "text": ".",
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                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "It should be noted that long historical estimates in particular are crude and come with significant uncertainty. Nonetheless they are accurate enough to provide a sense of magnitude for the relative change over time.{/ref}",
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                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "In 1500, there were over 25 million elephants in Africa. By 1900 this had fallen to around 10 million, and by 1979 down to 1.3 million.",
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                        "text": "There was a rapid decline in population size over the 1970s and 1980s such that by the mid-1990s numbers had fallen below 300,000. Over the following decades, conservation efforts across some countries managed to restore populations to over 470,000 in 2008. But increased poaching rates over the past decade have sent numbers back into decline.",
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "Another piece of evidence we have that populations have been in decline comes from a metric called the \u2018carcass ratio\u2019.\u00a0",
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                        "text": "During population surveys, researchers don\u2019t only count the number of alive elephants, they also count the number of dead elephants (carcasses). The carcass ratio is the number of dead elephants observed during surveys, given as a percentage of the total population.\u00a0",
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                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/african-elephant-carcass-ratio",
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                                "children": [
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                                        "text": "The carcass ratio",
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                        "text": " across Africa as a whole was 11.9%.{ref}Chase, M. J., Schlossberg, S., Griffin, C. R., Bouch\u00e9, P. J., Djene, S. W., Elkan, P. W., ... & Omondi, P. (2016).",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                    {
                        "url": "https://peerj.com/articles/2354",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": " Continent-wide survey reveals massive decline in African savannah elephants",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
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                        "spanType": "span-link"
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                    {
                        "text": ". ",
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                        "children": [
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                                "text": "PeerJ",
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                        "text": ", 4, e2354.{/ref} This means that for every 100 live elephants, there were around 12 dead elephants. A carcass ratio greater than 8% usually means the population is shrinking, because this will be greater than the replacement rate.{ref}Douglas-Hamilton, I., & Burrill, A. (1991).",
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                    {
                        "url": "https://www.savetheelephants.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/1991usingelecarcassRatios.pdf",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": " Using elephant carcass ratios to determine population trends",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ". ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "African wildlife: research and management",
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                        "spanType": "span-italic"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ", 98-105.{/ref}The overall population of African elephants has been falling in recent years. But this varies significantly across countries. In some, the",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/african-elephant-carcass-ratio",
                        "children": [
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                                "text": " carcass ratio",
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                    },
                    {
                        "text": " was very high: in Cameroon, it was 83%, it was 32% in Mozambique, and 30% in Angola.{ref}Data is only available for the years 2007 and 2015. So even countries which show an increase in over this decade \u2013 Cameroon, for example \u2013 might have seen a decline in very recent years, which is reflected in carcass ratio data.{/ref}",
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                                "text": "Asian elephant (",
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                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "Elephas maximus",
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                                "text": ")",
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                                "text": "There are fewer estimates of Asian Elephant populations. This is more worrying because the Asian elephant is at a higher risk of extinction. We should be tracking these numbers more, not less, closely.",
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                                "text": "We do have some data for select countries, and some longer-term estimates.",
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                                "text": "The IUCN estimates that the total population of Asian elephants has more than halved over the past century. It",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "http://wwf.panda.org/knowledge_hub/endangered_species/elephants/asian_elephants/",
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                                        "text": " estimates",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": " that there were 100,000 animals in the early 1900s; today that figure is in the range of 40,000 to 50,000.",
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                                "text": "Population data over time is available for some countries in Asia: the Indian government, for example, has",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://shodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in/bitstream/10603/23637/7/07_chapter%201.pdf",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": " published estimates",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                                ],
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                            },
                            {
                                "text": " periodically since 1970.\u00a0",
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                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "In the map, you can explore the latest population estimates from the Asian IUCN SSC Asian Elephant Specialist Group (",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://www.iucn.org/commissions/ssc-groups/mammals/specialist-groups-a-e/asian-elephant",
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                                        "text": "AsESG",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                            {
                                "text": ") for each country.",
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                        "value": [
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                                "text": "In India, populations have been steadily increasing since 1980, rising from around 16,000 to over 27,000 in 2017. This shows that it\u2019s possible to protect these species and help their populations rebuild.",
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                                "text": "However, the lack of data over time for many countries makes it difficult to properly assess the health of Asian elephant populations.",
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            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "How to save our elephant populations",
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                ],
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                "level": 2,
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            {
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                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "By far the biggest threat to both African and Asian elephants is poaching. Elephants are killed for their trunks and their tusks. Ivory is a lucrative business.",
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                        "text": "It\u2019s not just elephants that are under pressure.",
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                        "text": "Poaching is the leading threat to all large mammals. But as we\u2019ve seen from some country-level examples: protecting these species is possible: India has managed to protect and restore elephant populations. Namibia, Zimbabwe, and Angola have also managed to turn the trend.",
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        ],
        "type": "article",
        "title": "The state of the world's elephant populations",
        "authors": [
            "Hannah Ritchie"
        ],
        "excerpt": "How have elephant populations changed over time? What species are at risk of extinction today?",
        "dateline": "December 1, 2022",
        "subtitle": "How have elephant populations changed over time? What species are at risk of extinction today?",
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        "featured-image": "Elephants.png"
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    "createdAt": "2022-12-01T11:55:45.000Z",
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{
    "id": "wp-54652",
    "slug": "mass-extinctions",
    "content": {
        "toc": [],
        "body": [
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "There have been five big mass extinctions in Earth's history \u2013 these are called the \"Big Five\". Understanding the reasons and timelines of these events is important to understand the speed and scale of species extinctions today.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "When and why did these mass extinction events happen?",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                ],
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                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "What is a mass extinction?",
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                "level": 2,
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "First, we must be clear on what we mean by \"mass extinction\". Extinctions are a normal part of evolution: they occur naturally and periodically over time.{ref}Jablonski D (1986) ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://science.sciencemag.org/content/231/4734/129.abstract?casa_token=EoFixpArJnsAAAAA:R4ejNN9Ccy8BjYWiJJMfWUToj6qJSJFQ8jWGiMsL_x2OoBRfsrBdze0p8n6kvYdps25LiL8hcRKwrcy9",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Mass and background extinctions: the alternation of macroevolutionary regimes",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ". ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Science",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-italic"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " 231:129\u2013133{/ref} ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "There\u2019s a natural background rate to the timing and frequency of extinctions: 10% of species are lost every million years, 30% every 10 million years, and 65% every 100 million years.{ref}Raup DM (1991) ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C5&q=A+Kill+Curve+For+Phanerozoic+Marine+Species+David+M.+Raup+Paleobiology+Vol.+17%2C+No.+1+%28Winter%2C+1991%29%2C+pp.+37-48+%2812+pages%29&btnG=",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "A kill curve for Phanerozoic marine species",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ". ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Paleobiology",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-italic"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ". 17:37\u201348.{/ref} It would be wrong to assume that species going extinct is out of line with what we would expect. Evolution occurs through the balance of ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "extinction",
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                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-italic"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " \u2013 the end of species \u2013 and ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "speciation",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-italic"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " \u2013 the creation of new ones.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Extinctions occur periodically at what we would call the \"background rate\". We can therefore identify periods of history when extinctions were happening much faster than this background rate \u2013 this would tell us that there was an additional environmental or ecological pressure creating more extinctions than we would expect.\u00a0",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
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            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "However, mass extinctions are periods with ",
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                    },
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "much",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-italic"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " higher extinction rates than normal. They are defined by both magnitude and rate. Magnitude is the percentage of species that are lost. Rate is how quickly this happens. These metrics are inevitably linked, but we need both to qualify as a mass extinction.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "In a mass extinction, at least 75% of species go extinct within a relatively (by geological standard) short period of time.{ref}We can see a 75% reduction in species in two ways: high extinction or very low speciation rates. If speciation \u2013 the creation of new species \u2013 slows down a lot, the extinction rate does not need to be as high as we would expect in order to deplete species numbers by 75%. These events are sometimes called \"mass depletions\" but are treated the same way as mass extinctions.{/ref} Typically less than two million years.",
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            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "The five mass extinctions",
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                ],
                "type": "heading",
                "level": 2,
                "parseErrors": []
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            {
                "left": [
                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "There have been five mass extinction events in Earth\u2019s history, at least since 500 million years ago. We know very little about extinction events in the Precambrian and early Cambrian earlier, which predate this.{ref}Jenkins RJF (1989) The supposed terminal Precambrian extinction event in relation to the Cnidaria. Memoirs of the Association of Australasian Paleontologists 8:307\u2013317.{/ref} These are called the \"Big Five\" for obvious reasons.",
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                            }
                        ],
                        "parseErrors": []
                    },
                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "In the chart, we see the timing of events in Earth\u2019s history.{ref}This data and detail comes from multiple sources:",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "spanType": "span-newline"
                            },
                            {
                                "spanType": "span-newline"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "Barnosky, A. D., Matzke, N., Tomiya, S., Wogan, G. O., Swartz, B., Quental, T. B., ... & Ferrer, E. A. (2011). Has the Earth\u2019s sixth mass extinction already arrived? Nature, 471(7336), 51-57.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "spanType": "span-newline"
                            },
                            {
                                "spanType": "span-newline"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "McCallum, M. L. (2015). Vertebrate biodiversity losses point to a sixth mass extinction. Biodiversity and Conservation, 24(10), 2497-2519.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "spanType": "span-newline"
                            },
                            {
                                "spanType": "span-newline"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "Howard Hughes Medical Institute.{/ref} It shows the changing extinction rate (measured as the number of families that went extinct per million years). Again, note that this number was never zero: background extinction rates were low \u2013 typically less than 5 families per million years \u2013 but ever-present.",
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                            }
                        ],
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                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "We see the spikes in extinction rates marked as the five events:",
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                                                "text": "End Ordovician",
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                                            }
                                        ],
                                        "spanType": "span-bold"
                                    },
                                    {
                                        "text": " (444 million years ago; mya)",
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                                "type": "text",
                                "value": [
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                                                "text": "Late Devonian",
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                                    },
                                    {
                                        "text": " (360 mya)",
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                                "value": [
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                                        "children": [
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                                                "text": "End Permian",
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                                        ],
                                        "spanType": "span-bold"
                                    },
                                    {
                                        "text": " (250 mya)",
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                                                "text": "End Triassic",
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                                            }
                                        ],
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                                    },
                                    {
                                        "text": " (200 mya) \u2013 many people mistake this as the event that killed off the dinosaurs. But in fact, they were killed off at the end of the Cretaceous period \u2013 the fifth of the \"Big Five\".",
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                                                "text": "End Cretaceous",
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                                    },
                                    {
                                        "text": " (65 mya) \u2013 the event that killed off the dinosaurs.",
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                                "text": "Finally, at the end of the timeline, we have the question of what will come. Perhaps we are headed for a sixth mass extinction. But we are currently far from that point. ",
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                        "value": [
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                                "text": "There are a range of trajectories that the extinction rate could take in the decades and centuries to follow; which one we follow is determined by us.",
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                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "What caused the five mass extinctions?",
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                                "text": "All of the \"Big Five\" were caused by some combination of rapid and dramatic changes in climate, combined with significant changes in the composition of environments on land or the ocean (such as ocean acidification or acid rain from intense volcanic activity).",
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "In the table here, I detail the proposed causes for each of the five extinction events.{ref}Barnosky, A. D., Matzke, N., Tomiya, S., Wogan, G. O., Swartz, B., Quental, T. B., ... & Ferrer, E. A. (2011). ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/nature09678",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "Has the Earth\u2019s sixth mass extinction already arrived?",
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                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ". ",
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                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "Nature",
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                                ],
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                            },
                            {
                                "text": ", ",
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                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "471",
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                                ],
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                            },
                            {
                                "text": "(7336), 51-57.{/ref}",
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                        "value": "<div class=\"raw-html-table__container\"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>Extinction Event</strong></td><td><strong>Age</strong><strong>(mya)</strong></td><td><strong>Percentage of species lost</strong></td><td><strong>Cause of extinction</strong></td></tr><tr><td>End Ordovician</td><td>444</td><td>86%</td><td>Intense glacial and interglacial periods created large sea-level swings and moved shorelines dramatically. The tectonic uplift of the Appalachian mountains created lots of weathering, sequestration of CO2, and with it, changes in climate and ocean chemistry.</td></tr><tr><td>Late Devonian</td><td>360</td><td>75%</td><td>Rapid growth and diversification of land plants generated rapid and severe global cooling.</td></tr><tr><td>End Permian</td><td>250</td><td>96%</td><td>Intense volcanic activity in Siberia. This caused global warming. Elevated CO<sub>2</sub> and sulfur (H<sub>2</sub>S) levels from volcanoes caused ocean acidification, acid rain, and other changes in ocean and land chemistry.</td></tr><tr><td>End Triassic</td><td>200</td><td>80%</td><td>Underwater volcanic activity in the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province (CAMP) caused global warming and a dramatic change in the chemical composition of the oceans.</td></tr><tr><td>End Cretaceous</td><td>65</td><td>76%</td><td>Asteroid impact in Yucat\u00e1n, Mexico. This caused a global cataclysm and rapid cooling. Some changes may have already pre-dated this asteroid, with intense volcanic activity and tectonic uplift.</td></tr></tbody></table></div>",
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        ],
        "type": "article",
        "title": "There have been five mass extinctions in Earth's history",
        "authors": [
            "Hannah Ritchie"
        ],
        "excerpt": "When did the \"Big Five\" mass extinctions happen, and what were their causes?",
        "dateline": "November 30, 2022",
        "subtitle": "When did the \"Big Five\" mass extinctions happen, and what were their causes?",
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{
    "id": "wp-54648",
    "slug": "how-many-species-are-there",
    "content": {
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                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "How many species do we share our planet with? It's such a basic and fundamental question to understanding the world around us. ",
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                        "text": "It's almost unthinkable that we would not know this number or at least have a good estimate. But the truth is that it's a question that continues to escape the world's taxonomists.",
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "An important distinction is ",
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                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "how many species we have identified and described",
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                        ],
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                    {
                        "text": " and how many species there actually are. We've only identified a small fraction of the world's species, so these numbers are very different.",
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                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "How many species have we ",
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                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "described",
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                    {
                        "text": "?",
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                            {
                                "text": "Before we look at estimates of how many species there are in total, we should first ask the question of how many species we ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "know that we know. ",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "Species that we have identified and named.",
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                            }
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                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "The ",
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                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://www.iucnredlist.org/resources/summary-statistics",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "IUCN Red List",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": " tracks the number of described species and updates this figure annually based on the latest work of taxonomists. In 2021, it listed 2.13 million species on the planet. In the chart, we see the breakdown across a range of taxonomic groups \u2013 1.05 million insects, over 11,000 birds, over 11,000 reptiles, and over 6,000 mammals.",
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                        ],
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                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "These figures \u2013 particularly for lesser-known groups such as plants or fungi \u2013 might be a bit too high. This is because some described species are synonyms \u2013 the description of already-known species, simply given a separate name.{ref}Costello, M. J., May, R. M., & Stork, N. E. (2013). Can we name Earth's species before they go extinct?.\u00a0Science,\u00a0339(6118), 413-416.{/ref} There is a continual evaluation process to remove synonyms (and most are removed eventually), but often species are added at a faster rate than synonyms can be found and removed.{ref}Solow, A. R., Mound, L. A., & Gaston, K. J. (1995). Estimating the rate of synonymy.\u00a0Systematic Biology,\u00a044(1), 93-96.{/ref} To give a sense of how large this effect might be, in a study published in Science, Costello et al. (2013) estimated that around 20% of the described species were undiscovered synonyms (in other words, duplicates).{ref}Costello, M. J., May, R. M., & Stork, N. E. (2013). Can we name Earth's species before they go extinct?.\u00a0Science,\u00a0339(6118), 413-416.{/ref} They estimated that the 1.9 million described species at the time were actually closer to 1.5 million unique species.",
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                        ],
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                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "If we were to assume this \"20% synonym\" figure held true, our 2.12 million described species might actually be closer to 1.7 million.",
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                        "value": [
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                                "text": "Regardless, we know that all these figures underestimate the actual number of species. The fact that there are so many species that we've yet to discover has real consequences for our ability to understand changes in global biodiversity and the rate of species extinctions. ",
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                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "If we don't know that certain species exist, we also don't know that they might have, or will soon, go extinct. Some species will inevitably go extinct before we realize that they used to exist.",
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                "right": [
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                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/number-of-described-species?country=Fishes~Insects~Reptiles~Mammals~Birds~Amphibians~Corals~Molluscs~Crustaceans~Arachnids~All+groups~Fungi+and+Protists",
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "How many species are there really?",
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                        "text": "As Robert May summarised in a paper published in ",
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                        "children": [
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                                "text": "Science",
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                        "text": "{ref}May, R. M. (2010). ",
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                    },
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                        "url": "https://science.sciencemag.org/content/329/5987/41.summary",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Tropical arthropod species, more or less?",
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                    },
                    {
                        "text": ".\u00a0",
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                        "children": [
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                                "text": "Science",
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                        "text": ",\u00a0",
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                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "329",
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                    {
                        "text": "(5987), 41-42.{/ref}:",
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                                "text": "If some alien version of the Starship Enterprise visited Earth, what might be the visitors' first question? I think it would be: \u201cHow many distinct life forms\u2014species\u2014does your planet have?\u201d Embarrassingly, our best-guess answer would be in the range of 5 to 10 million eukaryotes (never mind the viruses and bacteria), but we could defend numbers exceeding 100 million, or as low as 3 million.",
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "Researchers have come up with wide-ranging estimates for how many species there are. As May points out, this ranges anywhere from 3 to well over 100 million \u2013 many orders of magnitude of difference. Some more recent studies estimate that this figure is as much as one trillion.",
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                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "One of the most widely cited figures comes from Camilo Mora and colleagues; they estimated that there are around 8.7 million species on Earth today.{ref}Mora, C., Tittensor, D. P., Adl, S., Simpson, A. G., & Worm, B. (2011). How many species are there on Earth and in the ocean?. PLoS Biol, 9(8), e1001127.{/ref} Costello et al. (2013) estimate 5 \u00b1 3 million species; Chapman (2009) estimate 11 million; and after reviewing the range in the literature, Scheffers et al. (2012) choose not to give a concrete figure at all.{ref}",
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Costello, M. J., May, R. M., & Stork, N. E. (2013). Can we name Earth\u2019s species before they go extinct?. Science, 339(6118), 413-416.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "A. D. Chapman, Numbers of Living Species in Australia and the World (Biodiversity Information Services, Toowoomba, Australia, 2009).",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Scheffers, B. R., Joppa, L. N., Pimm, S. L., & Laurance, W. F. (2012). What we know and don\u2019t know about Earth\u2019s missing biodiversity. Trends in ecology & evolution, 27(9), 501-510.{/ref} More recent studies suggest that the true number is in the billions.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Why is there such large disagreement on the number of species?",
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "The first challenge is even defining what a \u2018species\u2019 is. Even in well-known taxonomic groups \u2013 such as birds or reptiles \u2013 the delineation of species can change over time.{ref}Tobias, J. A., Seddon, N., Spottiswoode, C. N., Pilgrim, J. D., Fishpool, L. D., & Collar, N. J. (2010). Quantitative criteria for species delimitation. Ibis, 152(4), 724-746.{/ref} Our scientific understanding of organisms, and their relationship to others is still improving. That can mean \u2018splitting\u2019 a species into multiple, or combining \u2018separate species\u2019 into a single one. A ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://britishbirds.co.uk/content/bb%C2%A0eye%C2%A0do-taxonomic-changes-affect-conservation",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "clear example",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " of this was when a BirdLife International Review split the Red-bellied Pitta \u2013 which was formerly a single bird species \u2013 into twelve separate species.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                        "text": "The second challenge is coming up with estimates for groups that are less well-studied than mammals, birds, and reptiles. Most of the disagreement lies is in insects, fungi, and other smaller microbial species. Reaching a consensus on such small and inaccessible lifeforms is undoubtedly hard. There are between 6000 to 7000 known mammal species, but 350,000 - 400,000 of described species of beetles.{ref}Stork, N. E., McBroom, J., Gely, C., & Hamilton, A. J. (2015). New approaches narrow global species estimates for beetles, insects, and terrestrial arthropods. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 112(24), 7519-7523.{/ref}",
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                        "text": "The biggest area of uncertainty in species estimates is for bacteria and archaea. This can range from mere thousands to billions.{ref}Dykhuizen, D. (2005). Species numbers in bacteria. Proceedings. California Academy of Sciences, 56(6 Suppl 1), 62.{/ref} A 2017 paper by Larsen et al. estimates that there are 1 to 6 billion species on Earth, and bacteria make up 70% to 90% of them.{ref}Larsen, B. B., Miller, E. C., Rhodes, M. K., & Wiens, J. J. (2017). Inordinate fondness multiplied and redistributed: the number of species on earth and the new pie of life. The Quarterly Review of Biology, 92(3), 229-265.{/ref}\u00a0",
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                        "text": "The honest answer to the question, \u201cHow many species are there?\u201d is that we don\u2019t really know. Estimates span several orders of magnitude, from a few million to billions. Most recent estimates lean towards the higher range. The biggest uncertainty is in the small lifeforms \u2013 bacteria and archaea \u2013 where we\u2019ve only described a small percentage of the total.",
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                                        "text": "Update: This article was updated in February 2024 with more discussion on the uncertainty of estimates on the number of species globally.",
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        "type": "article",
        "title": "How many species are there?",
        "authors": [
            "Hannah Ritchie"
        ],
        "excerpt": "How many species do we share our planet with? How many of these species have we found and identified?",
        "dateline": "November 30, 2022",
        "subtitle": "How many species do we share our planet with? How many of these species have we found and identified?",
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{
    "id": "wp-54645",
    "slug": "quaternary-megafauna-extinction",
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                    {
                        "type": "text",
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                                "text": "Humans have had such a profound impact on the planet\u2019s ecosystems and climate that Earth might be defined by a new geological epoch: the Anthropocene (where \u201canthropo\u201d means \u201chuman\u201d). ",
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                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Some think this new epoch should start during the Industrial Revolution, and some at the advent of agriculture 10,000 to 15,000 years ago. This feeds into the popular notion that environmental destruction is a recent phenomenon.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                            {
                                "text": "The lives of our ancestors are often romanticized. Many think they lived in balance with nature, unlike modern society where we fight against it. But when we look at the evidence of human impacts over millennia, it's hard to see how this was true.",
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                            {
                                "text": "Our ancient ancestors contributed to the extinction of many of the world's largest mammals ('megafauna'). This was during an event known as the Quaternary megafauna extinction (QME).",
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                            {
                                "text": "The extent of these extinctions across continents is shown in the chart. Between 52,000 and 9,000 BCE, more than 178 species of the world\u2019s largest mammals were killed off. These were mammals heavier than 44 kilograms, ranging from mammals the size of sheep to mammoths.",
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                                "text": "There is strong evidence to suggest that these were largely driven by humans \u2013 we look at this in more detail later.",
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                                "text": "Africa was the least hard-hit, losing only 21% of its megafauna. Humans evolved in Africa, and hominins had already interacted with mammals for a long time. The same is also likely to be true across Eurasia, where 35% of megafauna were lost. But Australia, North America, and South America were particularly hard-hit; very soon after humans arrived, most large mammals were gone. Australia lost 88%; North America lost 83%; and South America, 72%. ",
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                                "text": "Far from being in balance with ecosystems, tiny populations of hunter-gatherers changed them forever. By 8,000 BCE \u2013 almost at the end of the QME \u2013 there were only around ",
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                                        "text": "5 million people",
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                                "text": " in the world.",
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                        "text": "Did humans cause the Quaternary megafauna extinction?",
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                        "text": "The driver of the QME has been debated for centuries. Climate and human impacts have been proposed as potential drivers.",
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                        "text": "One possibility is that ",
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                        "text": " played some role in the downfall of the mammals. This could be through overhunting, the reshaping of landscapes through fire, or the introduction of invasive species.",
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                        "text": "There are several reasons why we think our ancestors were at least partly responsible.",
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                                "text": "Extinction timings closely match the timing of human arrival.",
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                        "text": " The timing of megafauna extinctions was not consistent across the world; instead, the timing of their demise coincided closely with the arrival of humans on each continent. The timing of human arrivals and extinction events is shown on the map below.\u00a0",
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                        "text": "Humans reached Australia somewhere between 65 to 44,000 years ago.{ref}Andermann, T., Faurby, S., Turvey, S. T., Antonelli, A., & Silvestro, D. (2020). ",
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                        "children": [
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                                "text": "The past and future human impact on mammalian diversity",
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                        "text": "(36), eabb2313.",
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                        "text": "Smith, F. A., Smith, R. E. E., Lyons, S. K., & Payne, J. L. (2018). ",
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                        "children": [
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                                "text": "Body size downgrading of mammals over the late Quaternary",
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                        "text": "(6386), 310-313.{/ref} Between 50 and 40,000 years ago, 82% of megafauna had been wiped out. It was tens of thousands of years before the extinctions in North and South America occurred. And several more before these occurred in Madagascar and the Caribbean islands. Elephant birds in Madagascar were still present eight millennia after the mammoth and mastodon were killed off in America. Extinction events followed in man\u2019s footsteps.",
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                                "text": "QME selectively impacted large mammals. ",
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                        "text": "There have been many extinction events in Earth\u2019s history. There have been five big mass extinction events and several smaller ones. These events don\u2019t usually target specific groups of animals. Large ecological changes tend to impact everything from large to small mammals, reptiles, birds, and fish. During times of high climate variability over the past 66 million years (the \u2018Cenozoic period\u2019), neither small nor large mammals were more vulnerable to extinction.{ref}Smith, F. A., Smith, R. E. E., Lyons, S. K., & Payne, J. L. (2018). ",
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                        "children": [
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                                "text": "Body size downgrading of mammals over the late Quaternary",
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                        "text": ". ",
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                        "text": ", ",
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                        "text": "(6386), 310-313.{/ref}",
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                        "text": "The QME was different and unique in the fossil record: it selectively killed off large mammals. Now there are obvious reasons why larger mammals are at a greater risk of extinction from any cause: they are slower to reproduce, so declines or crashes in their populations take longer to recover from.",
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                        "text": "But there is also a strong bias to human pressures: humans selectively hunt the larger ones.",
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                        "children": [
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                                "text": "Islands were more heavily impacted than Africa. ",
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                        ],
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                    {
                        "text": "As we saw previously, Africa was less heavily impacted than other continents during this period. We might expect this since hominids had been interacting with mammals for a long time before this. These interactions between species would have impacted mammal populations more gradually and to a lesser extent. They may have already reached some form of equilibrium. When humans arrived on other continents \u2013 such as Australia or the Americas \u2013 these interactions were new and represented a step-change in the dynamics of the ecosystem. Humans were efficient new predators.",
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                        "text": "There have now been many studies focused on the question of whether humans were a key driver of the QME. Many suggest that the answer is yes. Climatic changes might have driven an initial decline in large mammal populations \u2013 small population crashes \u2013 but human pressures are likely to have thwarted their recovery. Large mammals survived previous periods of climatic change, but the arrival of humans put pressure on already-depleted populations.",
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                        "text": "Human impact on ecosystems dates back tens of thousands of years, despite the Anthropocene paradigm implying this is a recent phenomenon. We\u2019ve not only been in direct competition with other mammals, but we\u2019ve also reshaped the landscape beyond recognition.",
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        "type": "article",
        "title": "Did humans cause the Quaternary megafauna extinction?",
        "authors": [
            "Hannah Ritchie"
        ],
        "excerpt": "10,000 to 50,000 years ago, hundreds of the largest mammals went extinct. It's likely that humans were the key driver of this.",
        "dateline": "November 30, 2022",
        "subtitle": "10,000 to 50,000 years ago, hundreds of the largest mammals went extinct. It's likely that humans were the key driver of this.",
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    "id": "wp-54640",
    "slug": "whaling",
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                        "text": "Weighing in at over 150 tonnes, Blue Whales are the ",
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                        "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_whale",
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                                "text": "largest animal",
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                        "text": " to have lived on Earth. But their size hasn\u2019t protected them from human exploitation. In fact, their size made them an incredibly valuable source of oil, meat and blubber. This fat gave us a rich fuel for energy and many other industrial uses.",
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                        "text": "Human hunting has resulted in a massive decline in global whale populations. Some have been pushed to the brink of extinction. But, as we will see, a combination of technological change, economic incentives and international policies have brought global whaling to very low levels. While some populations are still very small, we have been successful in preserving these beautiful animals.",
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                        "text": "Early whaling in the United States",
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                                "text": "Whaling is a practice that dates back to Medieval times; fortunately at low levels, meaning this early practice had little impact on whale populations.{ref}Birnie, P. W. (1989). ",
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                                "url": "https://www.jstor.org/stable/24883418",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "International legal issues in the management and protection of the whale: a review of four decades of experience",
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                                "text": ". ",
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                                        "text": "Natural Resources Journal",
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                                "text": ", ",
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                                        "text": "29",
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                                "text": "(4), 903-934.{/ref}",
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                                "text": "While global whaling was a feature of the 1900s, the peak of whaling in the United States was a century earlier. In the 18th and 19th centuries, whaling was a key industry in the US. ",
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                                "text": "Although the uses of whale oil later diversified, Americans mainly used it for lighting. Whale oil was used for the lighting of not only homes but also outdoor street lighting, lighthouses and miner\u2019s headlamps \u2013 a range of uses that had a big impact on civilization during that period.{ref}Starbuck, A., 1878, (reprinted 1989), History of the American whale fishery: Secaucus, NJ., Castle.{/ref}",
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                                "text": "As we see in the chart, US production of whale and sperm oil followed the classic inverted-U curve, peaking in the mid-19th century. At this point, petroleum oil had been discovered, and kerosene \u2013 which was cheaper than whale oil \u2013 began to replace it in lighting. As whale hunting became increasingly unprofitable, production soon declined.{ref}Coleman, J. L. (1995). ",
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                            {
                                "url": "https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/BF02257579",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "The American whale oil industry: A look back to the future of the American petroleum industry?",
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                                "text": ". ",
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                                        "text": "Nonrenewable Resources",
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                                "text": "(3), 273-288.{/ref}",
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                        "text": "Modern whaling reduced Blue Whale populations by 98.5%",
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                                "text": "While the United States dominated whaling during the 19th century, it didn\u2019t really reach the global stage until the 20th century.\u00a0",
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                                "text": "Towards the end of the 1800s, new technologies were being developed that could catch whales in much larger numbers. Rather than the classic sail- or oar-powered boats that the Americans had been using, the Norwegians developed mechanized, steam-powered vessels with cannons and harpoons. This made whaling much more efficient. Not only could we catch ",
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                                        "text": "more",
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                                "text": " whales, it also allowed us to catch species \u2013 like Blue and Fin Whales \u2013 that were too fast for our old technologies.",
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                                "text": "This marked the start of the \u2018modern\u2019 whaling era, from around 1890 onwards. It had a dramatic impact.",
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                                "text": "Not all species were impacted equally by whaling. Some of the largest \u2013 the Blue and Fin Whale in particular \u2013 were prime targets. This meant that ",
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                                "children": [
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                                        "text": "the decline of the ",
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                                                "text": "biomass",
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                                        "text": " of whales",
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                                "text": " over this period was even greater. ",
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                                "text": "We see this discrimination towards particular species in the chart. All species declined, but the extent was wildly different. The Minke Whale saw a fall of just 20%.{ref}We can calculate this as: [(637,000 - 507,000) / 637,000 = 20%].{/ref} The Blue Whale was almost plundered into extinction. Its populations fell from 340,000 to just 5,000. A reduction of 98.5%.{ref}We can calculate this as: [(340,000 - 5,000) / 340,000 = 98.5%].{/ref} The Fin Whale lost 85% of its numbers.{ref}We can calculate this as: [(762,000 - 110,000) / 762,000 = 85%].{/ref}",
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                                "text": "Related chart:",
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                        "text": "The rise and fall of whaling",
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                                "text": "The 20th century didn\u2019t only bring technological innovations on how to track and hunt whales, it also brought advances in how we could use the oils, blubber, and bone that they provided. Both demand and supply rocketed.",
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                                "text": "Whale oils were initially used for lighting, but their market soon expanded. Sperm oil is special because it maintains its lubricating qualities at very high temperatures \u2013 this made it a vital ingredient for machinery, engines, guns and watches during the Industrial Revolution. Advancements in cosmetics and food chemistry meant that its by-products were soon used for soaps, textiles, and even margarine.",
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                                "text": "Ambergris \u2013 a substance found in the intestine of sperm whales \u2013 was, and still is, used to make perfume. You will find it in the luxury perfume, Chanel No.5. Whales made it into the fashion industry too. Instead of teeth, baleen whales have long strips of keratin (the substance found in human nails and hair) which hang from their mouths \u2013 these plates were used in everything from skirts and women\u2019s corsets, to umbrellas, parasols, fishing poles and crossbows.{ref}T\u00f8nnessen, J.N. and Johnsen, A.O. The history of modern whaling. University of California Press, Berkeley.{/ref}",
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                                "text": "In the chart, we see how this rising demand for whale products affected hunting rates across the world. This shows the number of whales killed each year, from 1900 onwards. ",
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                                "text": "For decades, tens of thousands of whales were killed each year. Only World War II gave these animals some reprieve \u2013 notice the drop in kills during the early-1940s.",
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                                "text": "At its peak in the 1960s, we were hunting 80,000 whales every year.",
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                                "text": "It didn\u2019t go unnoticed that this rate of whale catch was unsustainable. In fact, a number of countries formed the ",
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                                "url": "https://iwc.int/history-and-purpose",
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                                        "text": "International Whaling Commission",
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                                "text": " (IWC) in 1946 to work out how to manage international whaling stocks. Quotas were introduced, but countries weren\u2019t adhering to them.{ref}Clapham , P.J. and B aker, C.S. (2002). Modern whaling. In: Perrin , W.F., W\u00fcrsig, B. & T hewissen, J.G .M. (eds.), Encyclopedia of Marine Mammals, pp. 1328-1332. Academic Press, New York.{/ref} Whaling rates continued to rise, even after the lull of World War II. By the mid-20th century, many species were pushed to the brink of extinction.",
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                "type": "sticky-right",
                "right": [
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                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/whale-catch?country=~OWID_WRL",
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                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "Whaling peaked in the 1960s \u2013 how did the world tackle this?",
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                "left": [
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                        "value": [
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                                "text": "By the mid-20th century, the prospects for whales was looking bleak. And yet, the world managed to turn things around.",
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                                "text": "In the chart we see the number of whales killed per ",
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                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "decade",
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                                "text": ". ",
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                                "text": "We see a gradual rise over the first half of the century \u2013 with the exception of the war-stricken 1940s \u2013 with whale catch reaching its peak in the 1960s. 703,000 whales were killed during the 1960s. ",
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                        "value": [
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                                "text": "But, we've seen a decline since then. What caused this?",
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                                "text": "There were a number of factors at play. By the 1960s, whale populations had become increasingly depleted \u2013 this scarcity had an impact on the economic incentives to hunt them. Whales were becoming harder to find and catch. Technological advances also meant that substitutes for whale oil and bone in the cosmetic, food, and textile industries were becoming cheaper and more accessible. The whaling industry was losing its profitability.",
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                        "value": [
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                                "text": "There was another massive policy change in the 1980s. More and more countries were becoming members of the International Whaling Commission. ",
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                            }
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                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "In the map, we see the timeline by which countries joined the IWC. ",
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "After many decades of failed quota agreements, the IWC agreed to a global moratorium. This made commercial whaling illegal, with only a few exceptions.{ref}The moratorium only applies to commercial whaling, so whaling classified for scientific research purposes and aboriginal-subsistence provisions is still allowed.{/ref} This came into action in 1987, and we see a dramatic drop-off in whale catch in the decades since then.",
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                                "text": "You will notice that we haven\u2019t eliminated whaling completely. Some countries \u2013 such as Japan, Norway and Iceland \u2013 have resumed limited whaling outside the guidelines of the IWC.{ref}The moratorium only applies to commercial whaling, so whaling classified for scientific research purposes and aboriginal-subsistence provisions is still allowed.{/ref} In 2019, Japan withdrew from the international agreement. These countries typically hunt species that are not considered to be critically endangered.",
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                        "value": [
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                                "text": "Some species will still take many decades to recover. Populations of North Atlantic right whale, the Arctic bowhead, and the Pacific blue whale are still critical. ",
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                                "text": "Yet the story of whaling overall is a conservation success: an animal that was once in high demand across the world has been saved from extinction through substitution and international cooperation. Many species are in a similar position to whales in the 1960s. But the decline of whaling should give us hope that we can turn things around once again.",
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        ],
        "type": "article",
        "title": "Global whaling peaked in the 1960s",
        "authors": [
            "Hannah Ritchie"
        ],
        "excerpt": "Intense whaling drove many of the world\u2019s whale species close to extinction. But a dramatic decline in whale hunting since then has given them hopes of recovery.",
        "dateline": "November 30, 2022",
        "subtitle": "Intense whaling drove many of the world\u2019s whale species close to extinction. But a dramatic decline in whale hunting since then has given them hopes of recovery.",
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        "featured-image": "Whaling-featured-image.png"
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    "createdAt": "2022-11-30T11:22:02.000Z",
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    "updatedAt": "2022-12-01T12:02:01.000Z",
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    "publishedAt": "2022-11-30T11:22:02.000Z",
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{
    "id": "wp-54629",
    "slug": "rhino-populations",
    "content": {
        "toc": [],
        "body": [
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "The largest mammals are at the greatest risk of extinction. This has been the case since the arrival of humans, and is still true today.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Weighing in at several tonnes, rhinos are some of the world\u2019s largest mammals.{ref}The ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20230130123018/https://rhinos.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/IRF_factsheet_digital_Mar2020-1.pdf",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "average mass of rhinos",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " vary by species and sex. Male White and Indian rhinos can weigh up to 2700 kilograms; at the other end, Sumatran rhinos have a lower range of around 600 kilograms.{/ref} With extravagant prices for rhino horns and body parts, they\u2019re also one of the most threatened: three of the five rhino species are \u2018critically endangered\u2019.\u00a0",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
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            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "In this article we take a look at the status of rhino populations today, and whether they are in decline or on the path to recovery. They offer us both stories of concern and reasons for optimism.",
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                    }
                ],
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            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "State of rhino populations today",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "type": "heading",
                "level": 2,
                "parseErrors": []
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "There are five species of rhino. Africa is home to the White and Black Rhino. The remaining three \u2013 the Sumatran, Javan and Indian \u2013 exist in Asia.\u00a0",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Some of these species have dangerously low population levels.",
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                ],
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            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "The Sumatran and the Javan Rhino can now only be found in Indonesia. They are Critically Endangered with less than 100 individuals left in the wild. The Black Rhino, despite having a population in the thousands, is also Critically Endangered. It experienced a rapid decline over the 20th century as we will see later.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "The Indian (Greater One-Horned) offers us an important success story; it has seen a significant recovery in recent decades. The White Rhino too has shown an impressive recovery. But it has a dark side: the ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Southern",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-italic"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " White Rhino might be doing well but the ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Northern",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-italic"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " sub-species is on the brink of extinction. There are only two Northern White Rhinos left, and both of them are female.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "Are rhino populations increasing or decreasing?",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "type": "heading",
                "level": 2,
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "The health of these rhino populations is not just determined by how many animals are left today. The direction and pace that these populations are changing matters too.\u00a0",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "For each species I have built a time-series of populations globally and by country. This data is aggregated from multiple sources: the main one being the African and Asian Rhino Specialist Groups (AfrSG) and TRAFFIC, which collate statistics on all rhino populations, and submit them to the IUCN.{ref}Emslie, R.H. et al., 2019. ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "http://www.rhinoresourcecenter.com/pdf_files/156/1560170144.pdf",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "African and Asian rhinoceroses - status, conservation and trade",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ". A report from the IUCN Species Survival Commission (IUCN/SSC) African and Asian Rhino Specialist Groups and TRAFFIC to the CITES Secretariat pursuant to Resolution Conf. 9.14 (Rev. CoP17). Report to CITES 17th meeting (Colombo, June 2019), CoP 18 Doc.83.1 annex 3: 1-38.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Other sources used to build these time-series include:",
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                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Pusparini, W., Sievert, P. R., Fuller, T. K., Randhir, T. O., & Andayani, N. (2015). Rhinos in the parks: an island-wide survey of the last wild population of the Sumatran rhinoceros. PloS one, 10(9), e0136643.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Emslie, R. and Brooks, M. (1999) African Rhino. Status Survey and Conservation Action Plan. IUCN/SSC African Rhino",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Specialist Group. IUCN, Gland, Switzerland and Cambridge, UK. ix + 92 pp.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Thapa, K., Nepal, S., Thapa, G., Bhatta, S. R., & Wikramanayake, E. (2013). Past, present and future conservation of the greater one-horned rhinoceros Rhinoceros unicornis in Nepal. Oryx, 47(3), 345-351.{/ref}",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Let\u2019s take a look at each of the five species one-by-one.",
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                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
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            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "White rhino (",
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                    },
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Ceratotherium simum",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                        "text": ")",
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                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Overall, the story of the White rhino is a positive one. But this tale also has a darker side. There are two main subspecies: the Northern White and Southern White rhino. A century ago, the Northern was much more abundant than the Southern. Now the opposite is true.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "In the chart we see the population trend of the Southern White Rhino. It\u2019s touted as one of the world\u2019s greatest conservation success stories.{ref}Emslie, R. and Brooks, M. (1999) ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://portals.iucn.org/library/sites/library/files/documents/1999-049.pdf",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "African Rhino. Status Survey and Conservation Action Plan",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ". IUCN/SSC African Rhino Specialist Group. IUCN, Gland, Switzerland and Cambridge, UK. ix + 92 pp.{/ref} We don\u2019t have precise estimates but it\u2019s reported that by the mid-19th century it was still abundant. However, intense poaching by the Europeans and killings in the conversion of land for agriculture meant that by the late 19th century it was close to extinction. By 1900 there were only 20 left. All were in the Hluhluwe\u2013iMfolozi Park in South Africa \u2013 now a nature reserve.\u00a0",
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                ],
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                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Over the course of the 20th century, severe protection of these species \u2013 particularly in African nature reserves \u2013 led to a significant and rapid increase. Populations were restored to more than 21,000. Numbers grew 1000-fold within a century.",
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                ],
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Over the last few years, ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/number-of-rhinos-poached",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "increases in poaching rates",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " have unfortunately led to another decline. South Africa is home to around three-quarters of Southern White Rhinos. You can explore population estimates by country in the chart.",
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                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
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            {
                "left": [
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/southern-white-rhinos?country=~OWID_WRL",
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                "type": "sticky-right",
                "right": [
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                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/southern-white-rhinos?tab=map",
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            {
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                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "If the story of the Southern White Rhino is one of our greatest successes, the story of its Northern cousin must be one of our biggest failures. The ",
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                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Northern White Rhino",
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                    {
                        "text": " is on the brink of extinction. There are only two individuals left. Both are female.\u00a0",
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                        "text": "In the chart we see its demise over the second-half of the 20th century. In 1960, it\u2019s estimated there were ",
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                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/northern-white-rhinos",
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                                "text": "more than 2,000",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
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                    {
                        "text": ", predominantly in Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Intense poaching, and challenges for protection during civil unrest in stronghold countries, has led to a rapid decline.",
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                        "text": "Sudan, the last remaining male died in Kenya in 2018. There are now only two female rhinos left: Najin and her daughter, Fatu. Both are guarded in a semi-wild enclosure, and have had their horns sawed off to deter poachers. Scientists are investigating ways to continue reproduction from the last females, including stem cell treatment and hybrid embryos from Northern White Rhino eggs and Southern White Rhino sperm.{ref}Saragusty, J., Diecke, S., Drukker, M., Durrant, B., Friedrich Ben\u2010Nun, I., Galli, C., ... & Johnson, S. (2016). ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C5&q=doi.org%2F10.1002%2Fzoo.21284&btnG=",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Rewinding the process of mammalian extinction",
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                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ". ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Zoo Biology",
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                    },
                    {
                        "text": ", 35(4), 280-292.",
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                    },
                    {
                        "spanType": "span-newline"
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                    {
                        "spanType": "span-newline"
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                    {
                        "text": "Callaway, E. (2016). ",
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                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://www.nature.com/news/stem-cell-plan-aims-to-bring-rhino-back-from-brink-of-extinction-1.19849",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Stem-cell plan aims to bring rhino back from brink of extinction",
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                    },
                    {
                        "text": ". ",
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                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Nature News",
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                        ],
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                    },
                    {
                        "text": ", 533(7601), 20.{/ref} ",
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "In 2021, researchers ",
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                        "url": "https://www.newscientist.com/article/2264951-embryos-set-to-be-implanted-in-the-last-two-northern-white-rhinos/",
                        "children": [
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                                "text": "aim to implant",
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                        ],
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                    {
                        "text": " embryos in both to try to get them to reproduce. Scientific innovation is now the only way to save these sub-species. Even if reproduction is successful, population numbers will be incredibly low for a long time. They will have to be closely guarded for a long time.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                "left": [
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                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/northern-white-rhinos",
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                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "Black Rhino (",
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                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Diceros bicornis",
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                        "text": "The story of the Black Rhino is similar to that of the Northern White. The once abundant species has seen a dramatic decline over the 20th century.",
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                        "text": "Even after intense poaching by European settlers over the 19th and early 20th century, in 1960 there were still around 100,000 Black rhinos in Africa.{ref}Emslie, R. and Brooks, M. (1999) ",
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                        "url": "https://portals.iucn.org/library/sites/library/files/documents/1999-049.pdf",
                        "children": [
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                                "text": "African Rhino. Status Survey and Conservation Action Plan",
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                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ". IUCN/SSC African Rhino Specialist Group. IUCN, Gland, Switzerland and Cambridge, UK. ix + 92 pp.{/ref} The decline which followed was rapid and dramatic: the number fell by more than 80% in only two decades. The population reached its low point in the early 1990s at around 2,500, and have since began to recover. The number of Black Rhinos has more than doubled to around 6,000. Nonetheless, continued poaching has still limited population growth in recent decades. The Black Rhino is still classified as Critically Endangered.{ref}Emslie, R.H. et al., 2019. ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "http://www.rhinoresourcecenter.com/pdf_files/156/1560170144.pdf",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "African and Asian rhinoceroses - status, conservation and trade",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
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                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ". A report from the IUCN Species Survival Commission (IUCN/SSC) African and Asian Rhino Specialist Groups and TRAFFIC to the CITES Secretariat pursuant to Resolution Conf. 9.14 (Rev. CoP17). Report to CITES 17th meeting (Colombo, June 2019), CoP 18 Doc.83.1 annex 3: 1-38.{/ref}",
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "Indian / Greater One-Horned Rhino (",
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                        "children": [
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                                "text": "Rhinoceros unicornis",
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                        "text": ")",
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                        "text": "The Indian (also called the Greater One-Horned) Rhino provides one success story in the restoration of wild mammals.",
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                        "text": "By the mid-20th century, there were very few Indian Rhinos left in the world. It\u2019s estimated (with larger uncertainty since it predates regular surveying) that there were only 40 individuals left.\u00a0",
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                        "text": "Since the mid-1960s, populations have increased nearly 100-fold. Latest estimates, taken in 2021, suggest there are now over 4,000 rhinos in the wild. This was the result of impressive conservation efforts to reduce poaching in both India and Nepal.",
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                        "text": "Unsurprising based on the name, India is home to more than 80% of the species. But Nepal also has a steady population. With only a few being spotted in recent decades, they are thought to now be extinct in Pakistan.",
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "Javan Rhino (",
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                                "text": "Rhinoceros sondaicus",
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                        "text": "The Javan Rhino is one of the world\u2019s most endangered mammals. It is estimated there were only 76 rhinos left in 2021. This makes it Critically Endangered.",
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                        "text": "In the chart you see how Javan Rhino populations have changed over time.",
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                        "text": "In recent decades it has existed in two countries: Indonesia and Vietnam. But by 2010 it had gone extinct in Vietnam. Indonesia is now its only remaining home.",
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                        "text": "Its total population has, however, increased from 50 years ago. In the 1960s there were only 20 to 30 Javan Rhinos left in the world. From then until the 1990s, the population approximately doubled. The latest estimate puts this figure at 76 Javan Rhinos.",
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                        "text": "Sumatran rhino (",
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                                "text": "Dicerorhinus sumatrensis",
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                        "text": "Like the Javan species, Sumatran rhinos are also one of the most endangered mammals. They\u2019re Critically Endangered. There were only 41 left in the world in 2021.{ref}Estimates range from 34 to 47.\u00a0",
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                        "text": "Emslie, R.H. et al., 2019. ",
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                        "text": ". A report from the IUCN Species Survival Commission (IUCN/SSC) African and Asian Rhino Specialist Groups and TRAFFIC to the CITES Secretariat pursuant to Resolution Conf. 9.14 (Rev. CoP17). Report to CITES 17th meeting (Colombo, June 2019), CoP 18 Doc.83.1 annex 3: 1-38.{/ref}",
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "In the chart you can see how its population has changed over time.",
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "Once found in both Malaysia and Indonesia, the Sumatran Rhino is thought to be extinct in Malaysia; none have been recorded in 2016 and 2018 surveys.",
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                        "text": "But in contrast to the Javan, the number of Sumatran Rhinos in the world has been falling in recent decades, from 600 individuals in the mid-1980s to around one-tenth of that figure today. Both Malaysian and Indonesian rhino populations ",
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                    },
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                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/sumatran-rhinos?time=2007..2018&country=IDN+MYS",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "have contributed",
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                    {
                        "text": " to this loss.",
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            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "How do we protect rhino populations?",
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                    }
                ],
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                "level": 3,
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            {
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                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "The biggest threat to rhinos is poaching. Rhino horns are still seen as luxury goods and can sell for a lot of money in illegal wildlife markets.",
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "But rhinos are not the only species at risk from poaching. It\u2019s the leading threat for most large mammals. But some success stories \u2013 such as the restoration of Southern White and Indian Rhino populations \u2013 shows us that their demise is not inevitable. With the right approach we have the opportunity to turn things around. In a follow-up article we will look at the scale of global poaching, and what we can learn from the countries that have been successful in bringing it to an end.",
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                ],
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        ],
        "type": "article",
        "title": "The state of the world's rhino populations",
        "authors": [
            "Hannah Ritchie"
        ],
        "excerpt": "How have rhino populations changed over time? What species are at risk of extinction today?",
        "dateline": "November 30, 2022",
        "subtitle": "How have rhino populations changed over time? What species are at risk of extinction today?",
        "sidebar-toc": false,
        "featured-image": "Rhino-thumbnail.png"
    },
    "createdAt": "2022-11-30T10:37:36.000Z",
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    "updatedAt": "2023-01-30T12:36:59.000Z",
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{
    "id": "wp-54596",
    "slug": "artificial-intelligence-launch",
    "content": {
        "toc": [],
        "body": [],
        "type": "article",
        "title": "We just published a new topic page on Artificial Intelligence",
        "authors": [
            "Charlie Giattino",
            "Edouard Mathieu",
            "Julia Broden",
            "Max Roser"
        ],
        "excerpt": "AI is already having a large impact on our world. Explore research and data to understand the trajectory of this important technology.",
        "dateline": "December 6, 2022",
        "subtitle": "AI is already having a large impact on our world. Explore research and data to understand the trajectory of this important technology.",
        "sidebar-toc": false,
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    },
    "createdAt": "2022-11-28T11:25:03.000Z",
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    "updatedAt": "2022-12-06T11:34:03.000Z",
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{
    "id": "wp-54575",
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                                "text": "Artificial intelligence (AI) systems already greatly impact our lives \u2014 they increasingly shape what we see, believe, and do. Based on the steady advances in AI technology and the large recent ",
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                            },
                            {
                                "url": "/ai-investments",
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                                        "text": "increases",
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                            {
                                "text": " in investment, we should expect AI technology to become even more powerful and impactful in the following years and decades.\u00a0",
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                                "text": "It is ",
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                                "url": "/technology-long-run",
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                                        "text": "easy to underestimate",
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                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": " how much the world can change within a lifetime, so it is worth taking seriously what those who work on AI expect for the future. Many AI experts ",
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                            },
                            {
                                "url": "/ai-timelines",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "believe",
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                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
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                            {
                                "text": " there is a real chance that human-level artificial intelligence will be developed within the following decades, and some think it will exist much sooner.\u00a0",
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                                "text": "How such powerful AI systems are built and used will be very important for the future of our world and our own lives. All technologies have positive and negative consequences, but with AI, the range of these consequences is extraordinarily large: the technology has immense potential for good. Still, it comes with significant downsides and high risks.\u00a0",
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                                "text": "A technology that has such an enormous impact needs to be of central interest to people across our ",
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                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "entire",
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                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": " society. But currently, the question of how this technology will get developed and used is left to a small group of entrepreneurs and engineers.",
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                        ],
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                    },
                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "With our publications on artificial intelligence, we want to help change this status quo and support a broader societal engagement.",
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                        "value": [
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                                "text": "On this page, you will find articles and an overview of AI-related metrics that let you monitor what is happening and where we might be heading. We hope that this work will be helpful for the growing and necessary public conversation on AI.",
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                                "text": "Related topics",
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                                                "text": "Technological Change",
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                                                "text": "Technology Adoption",
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                        "text": "Research & Writing",
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                        "text": "How AI gets built is currently decided by a small group of technologists. As this technology is transforming our lives, it should be in all of our interest to become informed and engaged.",
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                        "text": "Max Roser",
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                        "text": "Despite their brief history, computers and AI have fundamentally changed what we see, what we know, and what we do. Little is as important for the future of the world, and our own lives, as how this history continues.",
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                        "text": "More key articles on artificial intelligence",
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                        "url": "/ai-investments",
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                                "text": "Artificial intelligence has advanced despite having few resources dedicated to its development \u2014 now investments have increased substantially",
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                    {
                        "url": "/ai-timelines",
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                                "text": "AI timelines: What do experts in artificial intelligence expect for the future?",
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                "text": [
                    {
                        "url": "/technology-long-run",
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                            {
                                "text": "Technology over the long run: zoom out to see how dramatically the world can change within a lifetime",
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                        ],
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        ],
        "type": "article",
        "title": "Artificial Intelligence",
        "authors": [
            "Charlie Giattino",
            "Edouard Mathieu",
            "Veronika Samborska",
            "Julia Broden",
            "Max Roser"
        ],
        "excerpt": "AI is already having a large impact on our world. Explore research and data to understand the trajectory of this important technology.",
        "dateline": "December 6, 2022",
        "subtitle": "AI is already having a large impact on our world. Explore research and data to understand the trajectory of this important technology.",
        "sidebar-toc": false,
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{
    "id": "wp-54367",
    "slug": "faq-living-planet-index",
    "content": {
        "toc": [],
        "body": [
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "The Living Planet Index (LPI) is a measure of biodiversity that is often misinterpreted. In my ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/living-planet-index-decline",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "accompanying article",
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                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " on the Living Planet Index, I describe these misinterpretations in detail, and what it actually tells us about the state of global biodiversity.",
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            {
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                        "text": "In this short page I answer some commonly-asked questions about this measure of biodiversity.",
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            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "What does the Living Planet Index (LPI) measure?",
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                        "text": "The Living Planet Index (LPI) provides a measure of wildlife ",
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                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "abundance",
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                    {
                        "text": ". It measures the ",
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                    {
                        "children": [
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                                "text": "average",
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                    {
                        "text": " decline in population size since 1970 across a wide range of species.{ref}WWF (2022)\u00a0",
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                    },
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Living Planet Report 2022 \u2013 Building a nature-positive society",
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                    },
                    {
                        "text": ". Almond, R.E.A., Grooten, M., Juffe Bignoli, D. & Petersen, T. (Eds). WWF, Gland, Switzerland.{/ref}",
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "What does the Living Planet Index (LPI) ",
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                                "text": "not",
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                        "text": " measure?",
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                        "text": "The Living Planet Index does not measure:",
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                                "text": "Number of species lost",
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                                "text": "Number of populations or individuals that have been lost",
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                                "text": "Number or percentage of species or populations that are declining",
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                                "text": "Number of extinctions",
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "What types of species are included?",
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                        "text": "The LPI only includes data from vertebrate populations. This includes mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians, and fish. Taxonomic groups including insects, corals, fungi, and plants are not included.",
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                ],
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "How many species does it cover? What is the geographical range of this coverage?",
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "In its latest report, published in 2022, 31,821 populations across 5,230 species were included. It includes species and populations across all continents. This breakdown is given in the table.",
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                "value": "<div class=\"raw-html-table__container\"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>Region</strong></td><td><strong>Number of species included</strong></td></tr><tr><td>Global</td><td>5,230</td></tr><tr><td>Africa</td><td>510</td></tr><tr><td>North America</td><td>952</td></tr><tr><td>Latin America &amp; Caribbean</td><td>1,261</td></tr><tr><td>Asia-Pacific</td><td>729</td></tr><tr><td>Europe and Central Asia</td><td>627</td></tr></tbody></table></div>",
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "What percentage of known species are included in the LPI?",
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                        "text": "Only vertebrate species are included in the LPI: this includes mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians and fish. Taxonomic groups including insects, corals, fungi and plants are not included.",
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                        "text": "Only a small percentage of known species in these groups are included. The number of populations and species from each group is shown in the table. This also details the percentage of known species that are included.",
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                "type": "html",
                "value": "<div class=\"raw-html-table__container\"><table><tbody><tr><td><strong>Taxonomic group</strong></td><td><strong>Number of populations included</strong></td><td><strong>Number of species included</strong></td><td><strong>Percentage of known species that are included</strong></td></tr><tr><td>Birds</td><td>12,995</td><td>1,802</td><td>16%</td></tr><tr><td>Mammals</td><td>6,171</td><td>751</td><td>11%</td></tr><tr><td>Fish</td><td>11,282</td><td>2,116</td><td>6%</td></tr><tr><td>Amphibians and Reptiles</td><td>1,373</td><td>561</td><td>3%</td></tr></tbody></table></div>",
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "Where does the data for the LPI come from?",
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                        "text": "The underlying data for the LPI comes from a combination of published scientific articles, online databases and government reports. To be included, data points must contain a time series of vertebrate populations spanning any number of years from 1970 onwards.",
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "What does the LPI show?",
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                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "The latest results from the LPI indicate an ",
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                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "average",
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                    {
                        "children": [
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                                "text": "decline",
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                    },
                    {
                        "text": " in the studied wildlife populations of 69% between 1970 and 2018.",
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                    },
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                        "spanType": "span-newline"
                    },
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                        "spanType": "span-newline"
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                        "text": "Note that this does not mean that we have lost 69% of wildlife over this period. For a clear example of why this is the wrong conclusion, and how the LPI is calculated, see our example ",
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                    },
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "url": "http://ourworldindata.org/living-planet-index#example-calculation-why-we-should-use-the-term-decline-and-not-lost",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "here",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-bold"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ".",
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                    }
                ],
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            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "Are all studied wildlife populations in decline?",
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                    }
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                "level": 2,
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            {
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                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "No, the results of the LPI show that around half of the studied populations are increasing in abundance, while half are declining. The fact that there is such a large average decline suggests that the magnitude of the decline across many populations is much larger than magnitude for increasing populations.",
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                ],
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        ],
        "type": "article",
        "title": "FAQs on the Living Planet Index",
        "authors": [
            "Hannah Ritchie"
        ],
        "excerpt": "The Living Planet Index is one of the most common measures used in biodiversity monitoring. But what is it, and where does this data come from?",
        "dateline": "October 13, 2022",
        "subtitle": "The Living Planet Index is one of the most common measures used in biodiversity monitoring. But what is it, and where does this data come from?",
        "sidebar-toc": false,
        "featured-image": "Living-Planet-Index-thumbnail.png"
    },
    "createdAt": "2022-11-07T13:59:58.000Z",
    "published": false,
    "updatedAt": "2023-06-15T09:45:46.000Z",
    "revisionId": null,
    "publishedAt": "2022-10-13T12:59:00.000Z",
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    "publicationContext": "listed"
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{
    "id": "wp-54361",
    "slug": "living-planet-index-region",
    "content": {
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "The Living Planet Index (LPI) is a measure of biodiversity that is often misinterpreted. In my ",
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                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/living-planet-index-decline",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "accompanying article",
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                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " on the Living Planet Index, I describe these misinterpretations in detail, and what it actually tells us about the state of global biodiversity.",
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "In brief, the LPI measures the ",
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                        "children": [
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                                "text": "average",
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                        ],
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                    },
                    {
                        "text": " change in the size of studied animal populations. It does not tell us the total change in animal populations; the share of populations that have been lost; or anything about extinctions.",
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                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "The main headline result of the 2022 Living Planet Index report was that studied animal populations globally ",
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                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-living-planet-index",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "have seen",
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                    {
                        "text": " an ",
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                        "children": [
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                                "text": "average",
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                    {
                        "text": " decline of 69% between 1970 and 2018.{ref}WWF (2022)\u00a0",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Living Planet Report 2022 \u2013 Building a nature-positive society",
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                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-italic"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ". Almond, R.E.A., Grooten, M., Juffe Bignoli, D. & Petersen, T. (Eds). WWF, Gland, Switzerland.{/ref}",
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                    }
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                "left": [
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                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "But these results vary a lot from region to region.",
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                        ],
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                    },
                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "In the chart we see the LPI given by region. This is measured relative to 1970, which is assigned a value of one.",
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                        ],
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                        "value": [
                            {
                                "children": [
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                                        "text": "Latin America and the Caribbean",
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                                "text": "Latin America and the Caribbean have seen the most severe decline of any region. It experienced an average decline of 94% across its studied populations. When we think about the changes in some of the leading drivers of biodiversity loss, we should not be surprised that Latin America has been badly affected.",
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                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "In recent decades it has experienced ",
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                            {
                                "url": "http://ourworldindata.org/deforestation",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "intense deforestation",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": " and expansion of agricultural land: the primary driver of habitat loss. It is also a biodiversity hotspot, being home to many endemic (unique) tropical species. These species are often highly specialized, and don\u2019t adapt well to changes in local conditions.\u00a0",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "The LPI highlights the conversion of grasslands, forests, wetlands and the harvesting of species for hunting and poaching as the main contributors to this decline. It was most severe for fish, reptiles and amphibians.",
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                                "children": [
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                                        "text": "North America",
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                                "text": "The trend for North America is one of two halves. Since 1970, it has experienced an average decline of 20%. But, most of this occurred before the year 2000. After a steady decline through the 1970s, 80s and 90s, the trend seems to have stabilized from the turn of the millennium. In fact, the average trend might be slightly increasing.",
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                                "children": [
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                                        "text": "Europe and Central Asia",
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                                "text": "Europe has seen the smallest decline of all of the continents. An average decline of 18% since 1970. This paints a less severe picture of biodiversity in Europe and Central Asia, and is partly attributed to successful conservation efforts. For example, most countries in Europe are ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "http://ourworldindata.org/afforestation",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "afforesting",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": " and restoring wild ecosystems.",
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                        ],
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                            {
                                "text": "It\u2019s also true that most of the continent\u2019s transformation \u2013 the expansion of agriculture, deforestation, and destruction of habitats \u2013 occurred well before 1970. It is a history that goes back centuries. In other words, it\u2019s biodiversity was already in a significantly depleted state. We\u2019d expect that any declines in the region would be less severe.",
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                                "children": [
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                                        "text": "Africa",
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                                "text": "Africa is still rich in biodiversity. It\u2019s the only continent with a significant number of large mammals left. Unfortunately, it has dramatically declined in recent decades\u2014an average decline of two-thirds (66%) since 1970.",
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                        ],
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                                "text": "Like Latin America, the main drivers of this are habitat loss for expanding agriculture and the overexploitation of animals for hunting, poaching, and wildlife trade. Looking at initial trends in the continent\u2019s subregions, the decline has been most severe in West, Central, and East Africa. Populations have been more stable in the North and South.",
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                                "children": [
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                                        "text": "Asia-Pacific",
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                                "text": "The Asia-Pacific spans a wide range of countries and habitats. It includes large terrestrial landscapes but also many small island states. This means it\u2019s home to many endemic species and unique ecosystems.",
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                            }
                        ],
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                            {
                                "text": "Since 1970, it has experienced an average decline of 55%. But there are initial signs that this is changing. We\u2019ve seen a positive trend since 2010. This has been seen clearly in population trends for several species of reptiles and amphibians.",
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                        ],
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                ],
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                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/living-planet-index-by-region",
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "Freshwater species have been greatly affected",
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                "left": [
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                                "text": "There is one particular environment that has experienced an incredibly severe decline: the world\u2019s freshwaters.",
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                                "text": "Almost one-third of freshwater species are threatened with extinction.{ref}Collen, B., Whitton, F., Dyer, E. E., Baillie, J. E., Cumberlidge, N., Darwall, W. R., ... & B\u00f6hm, M. (2014). ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/geb.12096",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "Global patterns of freshwater species diversity, threat and endemism",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ". ",
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                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "Global Ecology and Biogeography",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                                "spanType": "span-italic"
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                            {
                                "text": ", ",
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                                        "text": "23",
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                                "text": "(1), 40-51.{/ref} Freshwater species are at higher risk of extinction compared to terrestrial species. This bleak reality is also reflected in trends within the LPI.",
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                                "text": "The LPI covers 3,741 freshwater populations across 944 species. Not a small, limited sample. Since 1970, the average decline has been 83%. That\u2019s a 3.6% decline every year. Most of this decline has come from reptiles, amphibians, and fishes, particularly across Latin America and the Caribbean.",
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                                "text": "Overfishing and overharvesting of freshwater amphibians and reptiles \u2013 which are often traded in markets for their body parts, or for medicinal uses \u2013 is one of the biggest threats to these species.",
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                                "text": "Freshwaters are also polluted by many different types of waste: agricultural waste from manure and fertilizers, industrial discharge, and domestic waste. This can very quickly tip the balance of species within freshwaters. The diversion of rivers and use of dams can also alter the habitats for these species.",
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                                "text": "Conservation efforts in these environments are also more difficult because it usually requires input from multiple sectors. The allocation of responsibility for water is not as straightforward as for land. Just like terrestrial mammals, it\u2019s the megafauna (the largest species) that are at greatest risk. ",
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                                "text": "Freshwater megafauna are species that grow to more than 30 kilograms and include animals such as Mekong giant catfish, river dolphins, otters, beavers and hippos. All of these are targeted by humans. What makes them especially vulnerable is that they reproduce at much slower rates and have less offspring.{ref}Cardillo, M., Mace, G. M., Jones, K. E., Bielby, J., Bininda-Emonds, O. R., Sechrest, W., ... & Purvis, A. (2005). ",
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                                "url": "https://science.sciencemag.org/content/309/5738/1239",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "Multiple causes of high extinction risk in large mammal species",
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                                ],
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                                "text": ". ",
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                                        "text": "Science",
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                                "text": ", ",
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                                        "text": "309",
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                            {
                                "text": "(5738), 1239-1241.{/ref} This makes it more difficult for them to restore their populations that have been depleted.",
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        ],
        "type": "article",
        "title": "How does the Living Planet Index vary by region?",
        "authors": [
            "Hannah Ritchie"
        ],
        "excerpt": "The Living Planet Index shows an average decline of 69% across studied animal populations globally. But how does this vary by region?",
        "dateline": "October 13, 2022",
        "subtitle": "The Living Planet Index shows an average decline of 69% across studied animal populations globally. But how does this vary by region?",
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{
    "id": "wp-54262",
    "slug": "global-health-explorer-faq",
    "content": {
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        "body": [
            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "Data sources and methodological differences",
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                        "text": "We source the data for the Global Health Explorer from three main sources:\u00a0",
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                                "text": "World Health Organization\u2019s Global Health Estimates",
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                        "value": [
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                                "text": "World Health Organization\u2019s Global Health Observatory",
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                            }
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                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation\u2019s Global Burden of Disease Study",
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            {
                "text": [
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                        "text": "Global Health Estimates (WHO GHE)",
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                ],
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "The Global Health Estimates are primarily calculated using cause-of-death statistics that are reported to the WHO by individual countries.\u00a0",
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "These vital registration (VR) statistics are submitted to the WHO Mortality Database on an annual basis by country, year, cause, age and sex. This data is included in the Global Health Estimates if it meets criteria assessing completeness and quality. Since many countries don't meet these criteria, the GHE does not incorporate VR statistics for every country.",
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                        "text": "There are a number of specialist WHO groups and UN agencies that collect topic or disease-specific data. The dataset on HIV and AIDS \u2013 collected and published by UN AIDS \u2013 is one example of this. The estimates based on the VR data are compared to the data from specialist WHO groups and UN agencies and adjustments are made if necessary.\u00a0",
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                        "text": "Where the VR data is not usable and there is no other nationally representative cause of death data, then the World Health Organization adopts the IHME\u2019s Global Burden of Disease data to fill these gaps. Full details on how the WHO\u2019s Global Health Estimates are calculated are available ",
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                        "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20221028092355/https://cdn.who.int/media/docs/default-source/gho-documents/global-health-estimates/ghe2019_cod_methods.pdf?sfvrsn=37bcfacc_5",
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                                "text": "here",
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                        "text": "Global Health Observatory (WHO GHO)",
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                        "text": "The WHO\u2019s Global Health Observatory brings together a large number of variables produced by the WHO and specialist UN agencies.\u00a0",
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                        "text": "The variables found within the Global Health Observatory are limited to the leading causes of death and injury. This means the WHO GHO is less \u2018complete\u2019 than the IHME Global Burden of Disease study and WHO GHE in terms of the diseases included.",
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                        "text": "The method used to produce each of these variables is different and tailored to the specific cause of death or injury. This is a different approach to both the Global Burden of Disease (IHME) and Global Health Estimates (WHO) which attempt to use a consistent modeling approach for all causes of death and injuries. Additionally, variables in the Global Health Observatory are not consistently disaggregated by age or sex. Instead, they show what data is available and is most relevant for the given variable.\u00a0",
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                        "text": "The full list of variables available on the Global Health Observatory are available ",
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                        "text": ", each has their own associated metadata and method.",
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                        "text": "Global Burden of Disease (IHME)",
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                        "text": "In the Global Burden of Disease study, the IHME uses a wide range of input data. This includes, but is not limited to census data, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. These data are available through scientific journals, reports, online databases, books, news reports, and other resources. For most diseases and injuries the data are used as input into a series of standardized models which are used to generate estimates of each disease or injury for all age-groups, sexes, locations, and years.\u00a0",
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                        "text": "Since the publication of its Global Burden of Disease study in 2017, the IHME has used its ",
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                                "text": "own population estimates",
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                        "text": ". These differ from those used by the UN Population Division, which are used by the World Health Organization (WHO). This key difference propagates through all of the resulting health datasets. Even if the IHME and WHO assumed the same rates of health and mortality burden, this difference in population estimates means many of their population-adjusted figures would be different.",
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                        "text": "Full details on how the IHME\u2019s Global Burden of Disease is calculated are available ",
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                                "text": "here",
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                        "text": " and ",
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                        "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20221031141613/https://openresearch.lsbu.ac.uk/download/5509e9b91b2aa850bee0b22228faf9118f2db71edf109660eff4fd2d75d22f06/1927952/PIIS0140673620309259.pdf",
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "Why do different sources disagree on figures for the same metric?",
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                        "text": "Collecting precise data on global health is difficult: we can never know exactly which diseases or injuries affect people across the world at any given point in time. In the absence of perfect data, health researchers have a number of ways by which they try to estimate the burden of global health outcomes. These estimates are what we present in the Global Health Explorer.\u00a0",
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                        "text": "Each of these sources have slightly different methods for estimating the burden of disease and causes of death, and in some cases the definition of the diseases and injuries in question differ slightly as our Explorer shows.",
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "Differences in disease definition between sources",
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                        "text": "The diseases and injuries presented in the Global Health Explorer are typically aggregates of multiple similar causes of death. For example, \u2018Deaths from falls\u2019 includes 20 different types of fall which are combined into this one variable.\u00a0",
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                        "text": "Individual causes of death have an associated ",
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                                "text": "International Classification of Disease",
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                        "text": " (ICD) code. The tenth version of the ICD codes are used in the most recent Global Health Estimates and Global Burden of Disease and this is referred to as ICD-10. For example \u2018Fall from tree\u2019 has the ICD-10 code \u2018W14\u2019, and the ICD-10 codes for all \u2018Deaths from falls\u2019 are \u2018W00-W19\u2019.",
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                        "text": "Both IHME and WHO follow the same definition for \u2018Deaths from falls\u2019 but for some other causes of death, their definitions of the same aggregate cause of death doesn\u2019t include exactly the same ICD-10 codes. For example, ICD-10 code \u2018F02.3 - A dementia developing in the course of established Parkinson disease\u2019 is included as \u2018Dementia\u2019 in the WHO\u2019s Global Health Estimates but as \u2018Parkinson\u2019s disease\u2019 in the IHME\u2019s Global Burden of Disease.",
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                        "text": "These slight differences in the definition of diseases may also contribute to the different values we see when looking at the same metric from different sources. The ICD-10 codes used by IHME to define causes of death can be found ",
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                        "url": "https://ghdx.healthdata.org/record/ihme-data/gbd-2019-cause-icd-code-mappings",
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                                "text": "here",
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                        "text": " and the ICD-10 codes used by the WHO can be found ",
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                        "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20221031140839/https://cdn.who.int/media/docs/default-source/gho-documents/global-health-estimates/ghe2019_cod_methods.pdf",
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                                "text": "here",
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                        "text": ".",
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{
    "id": "wp-54245",
    "slug": "vdem-electoral-democracy-data",
    "content": {
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                        "text": "Measuring the state of democracy across the world helps us understand the extent to which people have political rights and freedoms.",
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                        "text": "But measuring democracy comes with many challenges. People do not always agree on what characteristics define a democracy. These characteristics \u2014 such as whether an election was free and fair \u2014 are difficult to define and assess. The judgment of experts is to some degree subjective. They may disagree about a specific characteristic or how something as complex as a political system can be reduced into a single measure.",
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "How do researchers address these challenges and measure democracy?",
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                "text": [
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                        "children": [
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                                "text": "What is the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) project?",
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                        "text": "In some of our work on democracy, we rely on data published by the ",
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                        "url": "https://www.v-dem.net/vdemds.html",
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                                "text": "Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) project",
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                        "text": ".{ref}Coppedge, Michael, John Gerring, Carl Henrik Knutsen, Staffan I. Lindberg, Jan Teorell, David Altman, Michael Bernhard, Agnes Cornell, M. Steven Fish, Lisa Gastaldi, Haakon Gjerl\u00f8w, Adam Glynn, Ana Good God, Sandra Grahn, Allen Hicken, Katrin Kinzelbach, Joshua Krusell, Kyle L. Marquardt, Kelly McMann, Valeriya Mechkova, Juraj Medzihorsky, Natalia Natsika, Anja Neundorf, Pamela Paxton, Daniel Pemstein, Josefine Pernes, Oskar Ryd\u00e9n, Johannes von R\u00f6mer, Brigitte Seim, Rachel Sigman, Svend-Erik Skaaning, Jeffrey Staton, Aksel Sundstr\u00f6m, Eitan Tzelgov, Yi-ting Wang, Tore Wig, Steven Wilson and Daniel Ziblatt. 2023. ",
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                        "url": "https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C5&q=Coppedge%2C+Michael%2C+John+Gerring%2C+Carl+Henrik+Knutsen%2C+Staffan+I.+Lindberg%2C+Jan+Teorell%2C+David+Altman%2C+Michael+Bernhard%2C+Agnes+Cornell%2C+M.+Steven+Fish%2C+Lisa+Gastaldi%2C+Haakon+Gjerl%C3%B8w%2C+Adam+Glynn%2C+Ana+Good+God%2C+Sandra+Grahn%2C+Allen+Hicken%2C+Katrin+Kinzelbach%2C+Joshua+Krusell%2C+Kyle+L.+Marquardt%2C+Kelly+McMann%2C+Valeriya+Mechkova%2C+Juraj+Medzihorsky%2C+Natalia+Natsika%2C+Anja+Neundorf%2C+Pamela+Paxton%2C+Daniel+Pemstein%2C+Josefine+Pernes%2C+Oskar+Ryd%C3%A9n%2C+Johannes+von+R%C3%B6mer%2C+Brigitte+Seim%2C+Rachel+Sigman%2C+Svend-Erik+Skaaning%2C+Jeffrey+Staton%2C+Aksel+Sundstr%C3%B6m%2C+Eitan+Tzelgov%2C+Yi-ting+Wang%2C+Tore+Wig%2C+Steven+Wilson+and+Daniel+Ziblatt.+2023.+V-Dem+%5BCountry-Year%2FCountry-Date%5D+Dataset+v13.+Varieties+of+Democracy+%28V-Dem%29+Project.&btnG=",
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                                "text": "V-Dem [Country-Year/Country-Date] Dataset v13.",
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                        "text": " Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project.",
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                        "text": "Pemstein, Daniel, Kyle L. Marquardt, Eitan Tzelgov, Yi-ting Wang, Juraj Medzihorsky, Joshua Krusell, Farhad Miri, and Johannes von R\u00f6mer. 2023. ",
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                        "url": "https://v-dem.net/media/publications/Working_Paper_21_z5BldB1.pdf",
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                                "text": "The V-Dem Measurement Model: Latent Variable Analysis for Cross-National and Cross-Temporal Expert-Coded Data.",
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                    },
                    {
                        "text": " V-Dem Working Paper No. 21. University of Gothenburg: Varieties of Democracy Institute.{/ref}",
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                        "text": "The project is managed by the V-Dem Institute, based at the University of Gothenburg in Sweden. It spans seven more regional centers around the world and is ",
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                                "text": "run",
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                        "text": " by five principal investigators, dozens of project and regional managers, and more than 100 country coordinators.",
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                        "text": "V-Dem is funded through grants and donations by government agencies and private foundations, such as the Swedish Research Council, the European Commission, and the Marcus and Marianne Wallenberg Foundation.",
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                                "text": "How does V-Dem characterize democracy?",
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                        "text": "True to its name, the Varieties of Democracy project acknowledges that democracy can be characterized differently, and measures electoral, liberal, participatory, deliberative, and egalitarian characterizations of democracy.",
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                        "text": "At Our World in Data we primarily use V-Dem\u2019s Electoral Democracy Index to measure democracy.{ref}The index is sometimes also called the Polyarchy Index.{/ref} The index is used in all of V-Dem\u2019s other democracy indices because V-Dem considers there to be no democracy without elections. The other aspects can therefore be thought of as measuring the ",
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                                "text": "quality",
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                        "text": " of a democracy.",
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                        "text": "V-Dem characterizes electoral democracy as a political system in which political leaders are elected under comprehensive voting rights in free and fair elections, and freedoms of association and expression are guaranteed. More specifically, this means:",
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                                        "text": "Elected political leaders",
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                                "text": ": broad elections choose the chief executive and legislature",
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                        "value": [
                            {
                                "children": [
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                                        "text": "Comprehensive voting rights",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-bold"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ": all adult citizens have the legal right to vote in national elections",
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
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                                "children": [
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                                        "text": "Free and fair elections",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-bold"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ": no election violence, government intimidation, fraud, large irregularities, and vote buying",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                                "children": [
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                                        "text": "Freedom of association",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-bold"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ": parties and civil society organizations can form and operate freely",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "children": [
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                                        "text": "Freedom of expression",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-bold"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ": people can voice their views and the media can present different political perspectives",
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                            }
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "You can find data on the other democracy indices, electoral democracy\u2019s characteristics, and other derived measures in our ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/democracy?country=ARG~AUS~BWA~CHN~OWID_WRL&Dataset=Varieties+of+Democracy&Metric=Electoral+democracy&Sub-metric=Main+index",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Democracy Data Explorer",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ".",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "How is democracy scored?",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-bold"
                    }
                ],
                "type": "heading",
                "level": 2,
                "parseErrors": []
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "The Electoral Democracy Index scores each country on a spectrum, with some countries being more democratic than others.",
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                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "The spectrum ranges from 0 (\u2018highly undemocratic\u2019) to 1 (\u2018highly democratic\u2019).",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "This scoring thereby differs from other approaches such as ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/regimes-of-the-world-data",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "\u2018Regimes of the World\u2019",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " and ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/democracies-measurement",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "other projects",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ", which classify countries as a binary: either they are a democracy or not.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                ],
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            {
                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/electoral-democracy",
                "type": "chart",
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/distribution-electoral-democracy-vdem",
                "type": "chart",
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            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "What years and countries are covered?",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-bold"
                    }
                ],
                "type": "heading",
                "level": 2,
                "parseErrors": []
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "As of version 13 of the dataset, V-Dem covers 202 countries, going back in time as far as 1789. Many countries have been covered since 1900, including before they became independent from their colonial powers.",
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                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
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            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "How is democracy measured?",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-bold"
                    }
                ],
                "type": "heading",
                "level": 2,
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "How does V-Dem work to make its assessments valid?",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-bold"
                    }
                ],
                "type": "heading",
                "level": 3,
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "To actually measure what it wants to capture, V-Dem assesses the characteristics of democracy mostly through evaluations by experts.{ref} For more details, see: Coppedge, Michael, John Gerring, Carl Henrik Knutsen, Staffan Lindberg, Jan Teorell, Kyle Marquardt, Juraj Medzihorsky, Daniel Pemstein, Nazifa Alizada, Lisa Gastaldi, Garry Hindle, Josefine Pernes, Johannes von R\u00f6mer, Eitan Tzelgov, Yi-ting Wang, and Steven Wilson. 2021. V-Dem Methodology v11.1. Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project: page 24.{/ref}",
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                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "These anonymous experts are primarily academics and members of the media and civil society. They are also often nationals or residents of the country they assess, and therefore know its political system well and can evaluate aspects that are difficult to observe.",
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                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "V-Dem\u2019s own team of researchers supplements the expert evaluations. They code some easier-to-observe rules and laws of the political system, such as whether the legislature has a lower and upper house.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "How does V-Dem work to make its assessments precise and reliable?",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-bold"
                    }
                ],
                "type": "heading",
                "level": 3,
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            },
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "V-Dem uses several experts per country, year, and topic, to make its assessments less subjective. In total, around 3,500 country-experts fill surveys for V-Dem every year.",
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                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "While there are fewer experts for small countries and for the time before 1900, they rely typically on 25 experts per country and 5 experts per topic.",
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                ],
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            },
            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "How does V-Dem work to make its assessments comparable?",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-bold"
                    }
                ],
                "type": "heading",
                "level": 3,
                "parseErrors": []
            },
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "V-Dem also works to make their coders\u2019 assessments comparable across countries and time.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "The surveys ask the experts to answer very specific questions on completely explained scales about sub-characteristics of political systems \u2014 such as the presence or absence of election fraud \u2014 instead of making them rely on their broad impressions.",
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                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "The surveys are available in English, Arabic, French, Portuguese, Russian, and Spanish to reduce misunderstandings.",
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                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Experts further evaluate hypothetical countries, many coded several countries, and they denote their own uncertainty and personal demographic information.",
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                    }
                ],
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            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "V-Dem then uses this information to investigate expert biases, which they have found to be limited: they only find that experts from a country tend to be stricter in their assessments. {ref}\u201cWe have run extensive tests on how well such individual-level factors predict country-ratings but have found that the only factor consistently associated with country-ratings is country of origin (with \u201cdomestic\u201d experts being harsher in their judgments).\u201d",
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                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Coppedge, Michael, John Gerring, Carl Henrik Knutsen, Staffan Lindberg, Jan Teorell, Kyle Marquardt, Juraj Medzihorsky, Daniel Pemstein, Nazifa Alizada, Lisa Gastaldi, Garry Hindle, Josefine Pernes, Johannes von R\u00f6mer, Eitan Tzelgov, Yi-ting Wang, and Steven Wilson. 2021. V-Dem Methodology v11.1. Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project: page 24.{/ref}",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "How are the remaining differences in the data dealt with?",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
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                    }
                ],
                "type": "heading",
                "level": 3,
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "V-Dem uses a statistical model to address any remaining differences between coders.{ref}Specifically, it uses a Bayesian Item-Response Theory estimation strategy.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Marquardt, Kyle, and Daniel Pemstein. 2018. IRT Models for Expert-Coded Panel Data. Political Analysis 26(4): 431-456.{/ref}",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "The model combines the experts\u2019 ratings of actual countries and hypothetical countries, as well as the experts\u2019 stated uncertainties and personal demographics to produce best, upper-, and lower-bound estimates of many characteristics.{ref}Expressed precisely, V-Dem\u2019s measurement model produces a probability distribution over the country-year scores. The best estimate is the distribution\u2019s median, while the upper and lower bound estimates demarcate the interval in which the model places 68 percent of the probability mass.{/ref}",
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                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "V-Dem provides these different estimates for all of its main and supplementary indices, including the Electoral Democracy Index and the subindices for free and fair elections, freedom of association, and freedom of expression.",
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                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "With the different estimates, V-Dem explicitly acknowledges that its coders can be uncertain or make errors in their measurement.",
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                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "The overall Electoral Democracy Index score is the result of weighing, multiplying, and adding up the subindices.{ref} The precise formula is:",
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                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "electoral democracy index = 0.5 * multiplicative polyarchy index + 0.5 * additive polyarchy index; with",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "multiplicative polyarchy index = elected officials * free and fair elections * comprehensive suffrage * freedom of association * freedom of expression; and ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "additive polyarchy index = 0.125 * elected officials + 0.25 * free and fair elections + 0.125 * comprehensive suffrage + 0.25 * freedom of association + 0.25 * freedom of expression{/ref}",
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                ],
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "The subindices are weighted because V-Dem considers some of them as more important than others: elected officials and voting rights are weighted less because they capture more formal requirements, as opposed to free and fair elections and the freedoms of association and expression that rely more on expert assessments.",
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "The subindices are partially multiplied and partially added up because V-Dem wants the subindices to partially compensate for one another, and partially for them to reinforce each other. An example of compensation is voting rights partially making up for a lack of rights to assemble and protest, whereas an example of reinforcement is voting rights mattering more if voters can also choose opposition candidates.",
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            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "How is the data made accessible and transparent?",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
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                    }
                ],
                "type": "heading",
                "level": 2,
                "parseErrors": []
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "V-Dem releases ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://v-dem.net/data/the-v-dem-dataset/",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "its data",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " publicly, and makes it straightforward to download and use.",
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                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "It publishes the overall scores, the underlying subindices, and several hundred specific questions by country-year, country-date, and coder.",
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                ],
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            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "V-Dem also releases detailed descriptions of how they characterize democracy, the questions and coding procedures that guide the experts and researchers, as well as why it weighs, adds, and multiplies the scores for specific characteristics.",
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                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
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            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "How do we change the data?",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-bold"
                    }
                ],
                "type": "heading",
                "level": 2,
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "In our work, we expand the years covered by V-Dem further.",
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                    }
                ],
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            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "To expand the time coverage of today\u2019s countries and include more of the period when they were still non-sovereign territories, we identified the historical entity they were a part of and used that regime\u2019s data whenever available.{ref}For example, V-Dem only provides regime data since Bangladesh\u2019s independence in 1971. There is, however, regime data for Pakistan and the colony of India, both of which the current territory of Bangladesh was a part. We, therefore, use the regime data of Pakistan for Bangladesh from 1947 to 1970, and the regime data of India from 1789 to 1946. We did so for all countries with a past or current population of more than one million.{/ref}",
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                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "We also calculated regional and global averages of the Electoral Democracy Index and its sub-indices, weighted and unweighted by population.",
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                ],
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Our code and data are available ",
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                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://github.com/owid/notebooks/tree/main/BastianHerre/democracy",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "on GitHub",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " and record our revisions in detail.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "How often and when is the data updated?",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-bold"
                    }
                ],
                "type": "heading",
                "level": 2,
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "V-Dem releases a new version of the data each year in March.",
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                ],
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            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "We at Our World in Data aim to update our own data within a few weeks of the release.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "What are the data\u2019s shortcomings?",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
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                    }
                ],
                "type": "heading",
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "There are shortcomings in the way the Electoral Democracy Index characterizes and measures democracy.{ref}This and the following section draw on several very helpful other articles summarizing and reviewing some of the leading democracy datasets:",
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                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Boese, Vanessa. 2019. ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C5&q=Boese%2C+Vanessa.+2019.+How+%28not%29+to+measure+democracy.+International+Area+Studies+Review+22%282%29%3A+95-127&btnG=",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "How (not) to measure democracy",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ". International Area Studies Review 22(2): 95-127.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Coppedge, Michael, John Gerring, Staffan I. Lindberg, Svend-Erik Skaaning, and Jan Teorell. 2017. ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C5&q=Coppedge%2C+Michael%2C+John+Gerring%2C+Staffan+I.+Lindberg%2C+Svend-Erik+Skaaning%2C+and+Jan+Teorell.+2017.+V-Dem+Comparisons+and+Contrasts+with+Other+Measurement+Projects.+V-Dem+Working+Paper+45.&btnG=",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "V-Dem Comparisons and Contrasts with Other Measurement Projects",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ". V-Dem Working Paper 45.",
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                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "M\u00f8ller, J\u00f8rgen and Svend-Erik Skaaning. 2021. ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C5&q=M%C3%B8ller%2C+J%C3%B8rgen+and+Svend-Erik+Skaaning.+2021.+Varieties+of+Measurement%3A+A+Comparative+Assessment+of+Relatively+New+Democracy+Ratings+based+on+Original+Data.+V-Dem+Working+Paper+123.&btnG=",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Varieties of Measurement: A Comparative Assessment of Relatively New Democracy Ratings based on Original Data",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ". V-Dem Working Paper 123.Skaaning, Svend-Erik. 2018. ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C5&q=Skaaning%2C+Svend-Erik.+2018.+Different+Types+of+Data+and+the+Validity+of+Democracy+Measures.+Politics+and+Governance+6%281%29%3A+105-116.&btnG=",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Different Types of Data and the Validity of Democracy Measures",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ". Politics and Governance 6(1): 105-116.{/ref}",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "The index focuses on an electoral understanding of democracy and does not account for other characterizations, such as democracies as egalitarian political systems, in which political power is equally distributed to allow everyone to participate. This means that some of the ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/economic-inequality-gini-index",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "most economically-unequal countries",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                        "text": " in the world, such as Brazil and South Africa, are classified as broadly democratic in recent years.{ref}True to its name, however, V-Dem provides several democracy indices in addition to the Electoral Democracy Index, and also measures liberal, participatory, deliberative, and egalitarian characterizations of democracy.{/ref}",
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                        "text": "Furthermore, the index is more difficult to interpret than other measures. Measures that group countries into democracies and autocracies, ",
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                        "text": ", make it possible to say which country was a democracy.",
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                        "text": "The Electoral Democracy Index makes no clear assessment there, and only allows us to say whether a country is relatively democratic by comparing it to the range of the index, to other countries, or to the same country at another point in time. And when doing so, it is still difficult to say how large these differences are.{ref}This can be made easier by comparing how a score relates to the index\u2019s overall distribution or its distribution for a specific year.{/ref}",
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                        "text": "Finally, the index\u2019s aggregation remains to some extent arbitrary. It is unclear why these specific subindices were chosen; and why two subindices, elected officials and voting rights, are weighted less than the others.",
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                        "text": "The index also covers many countries and years. With the exception of microstates, it covers all countries in the world. Many countries are covered since 1900 \u2014 even while they were colonized by another country \u2014 and some of them as far back as 1789.",
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                        "children": [
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                                "text": "Acknowledgments",
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                        "text": "I thank Edouard Mathieu, Hannah Ritchie, and Max Roser for their very helpful comments and ideas about how to improve this article.",
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        "title": "The 'Varieties of Democracy' data: how do researchers measure democracy?",
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        "excerpt": "There are many ways to measure democracy. Here is how the Varieties of Democracy project does it, one of the leading sources of global democracy data.",
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{
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        "title": "We just published a data explorer on Global Health",
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        "excerpt": "What do people die from? How do health outcomes and systems vary across the world? Explore data for all countries in our data explorer.",
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{
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                        "text": "Explore our new Poverty page",
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{
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "The data in this article uses a previous release of the World Bank's poverty and inequality data in which incomes are expressed in 2011 international-$.",
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                        "text": "The World Bank has since updated its methods, and now measures incomes in 2017 international-$. As part of this change, the International Poverty Line used to measure extreme poverty has also been updated: from $1.90 (in 2011 prices) to $2.15 (in 2017 prices).",
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                        "text": "This has had little effect on our overall understanding of poverty and inequality around the world. But because of the change of units, many of the figures mentioned in this article will differ from the latest World Bank figures.",
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                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/from-1-90-to-2-15-a-day-the-updated-international-poverty-line",
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                "description": "Read more about the World Bank's updated methodology",
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                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/poverty-explorer",
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        "title": "World Bank PIP data still in 2011 PPPs warning",
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{
    "id": "wp-53550",
    "slug": "influenza-deaths",
    "content": {
        "toc": [],
        "body": [
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Globally, seasonal influenza kills 400,000 people from respiratory disease each year on average. During large flu pandemics, when influenza strains evolved substantially, the death toll was even higher.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "But the risk of dying from influenza has declined substantially over time from improvements in sanitation, healthcare, and vaccination.\u00a0",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "People born in 1940 had around a third of the risk of dying from influenza as those born in 1900 \u2013\u00a0even when they reached the same age. This decline continued, and those born in 1980 have a risk of half that of those born in 1940.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Influenza still remains a large burden around the world, because of an aging population and a lack of access to healthcare and sanitation in many countries.\u00a0",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "In this article, we look into these developments in detail: how many people die from seasonal influenza and how this has changed over time.\u00a0",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "We will also look at which factors increase the risk of dying from the flu and understand why, in some years, influenza has led to large pandemics that caused millions of deaths. This knowledge can inform us about the risks of influenza in the future.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
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            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "How many people die from seasonal influenza?",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "type": "heading",
                "level": 2,
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            },
            {
                "left": [
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Although this is an important question, it is often difficult to answer.",
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                            }
                        ],
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                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Despite being a well-understood disease, it can be hard to count the number of deaths from influenza for several reasons.{ref}Gordon, A., & Reingold, A. (2018). The Burden of Influenza: A Complex Problem. ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "Current Epidemiology Reports",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ", ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "5",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "(1), 1\u20139.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://doi.org/10.1007/s40471-018-0136-1",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": " https://doi.org/10.1007/s40471-018-0136-1",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "{/ref}",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "parseErrors": []
                    },
                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "One problem is that the symptoms of influenza look similar to other infections, such as respiratory syncytial virus and rhinovirus. In many countries, only a fraction of patients with an \"influenza-like illness\" are tested to confirm whether they were infected by the virus.{ref}Charbonneau, D. H., & James, L. N. (2019). FluView and FluNet: Tools for Influenza Activity and Surveillance. ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "Medical Reference Services Quarterly",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ", ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "38",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "(4), 358\u2013368.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://doi.org/10.1080/02763869.2019.1657734",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": " https://doi.org/10.1080/02763869.2019.1657734",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "{/ref} This means we miss many \u2013 or, in some countries, most \u2013 infections.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "parseErrors": []
                    },
                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Another problem is that influenza can lead to death in a number of indirect ways. It can cause death through respiratory complications such as pneumonia, but also from cardiovascular complications such as heart attacks and strokes, or other serious infections. This is especially true for the elderly and people who have chronic health conditions.{ref}Macias, A. E., McElhaney, J. E., Chaves, S. S., Nealon, J., Nunes, M. C., Samson, S. I., Seet, B. T., Weinke, T., & Yu, H. (2021). The disease burden of influenza beyond respiratory illness. ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "Vaccine",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ", ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "39",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ", A6\u2013A14.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2020.09.048",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": " ",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2020.09.048%7B/ref",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2020.09.048",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "{/ref} Without accounting for these deaths, we would underestimate the number of flu deaths.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "parseErrors": []
                    },
                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "To overcome this, researchers estimate the burden of influenza with other methods. They can estimate the number of ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "excess",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": " deaths that occur during flu seasons, and use routine surveillance data and mortality records, to estimate how many of these are caused by the flu.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "parseErrors": []
                    },
                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "The annual mortality caused by seasonal influenza was estimated by the ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://www.nivel.nl/en/project/glamor-ii-global-influenza-mortality-research",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "Global Pandemic Mortality Project II",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": " using data between 2002 and 2011. They estimated that, during this period, seasonal influenza caused between 294,000 and 518,000 deaths each year globally.{ref}Paget J, Spreeuwenberg P, Charu V, Taylor RJ, Iuliano AD, Bresee J, Simonsen L, Viboud C; Global Seasonal Influenza-associated Mortality Collaborator Network and GLaMOR Collaborating Teams*. Global mortality associated with seasonal influenza epidemics: New burden estimates and predictors from the GLaMOR Project. J Glob Health. 2019 Dec;9(2):020421. doi: 10.7189/jogh.09.020421. ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://jogh.org/documents/issue201902/jogh-09-020421.pdf",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "https://jogh.org/documents/issue201902/jogh-09-020421.pdf",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "spanType": "span-newline"
                            },
                            {
                                "spanType": "span-newline"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "This shows the mean estimate of annual influenza mortality between 2002\u20132011, excluding the 2009 \"Swine flu\" pandemic influenza season. You can find estimated numbers for world regions in Table 2 of the paper. Rates for other age groups can be found here: ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://www.nivel.nl/sites/default/files/influenza-nieuwsbrief/GLaMOR%20project_seasonal%20estimates.pdf",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "https://www.nivel.nl/sites/default/files/influenza-nieuwsbrief/GLaMOR%20project_seasonal%20estimates.pdf",
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                                    }
                                ],
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                            },
                            {
                                "spanType": "span-newline"
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                            {
                                "spanType": "span-newline"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "Other global estimates of seasonal influenza mortality have been made by the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).\u00a0",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Estimates made by GLaMOR were comparable to those by the CDC, while estimates made by IHME were around 4-5 times lower. This may be because the IHME estimated influenza mortality by first estimating the number of deaths caused by lower respiratory diseases, then estimating the fraction of those that were primarily attributed to influenza in vital records, verbal autopsies, and other mortality data. This approach would have missed many deaths caused by complications of influenza and deaths that were not specified on records to be caused by influenza due to limited testing.",
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                            }
                        ],
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Both CDC and GLaMOR's models are also likely to be underestimating the total mortality burden from influenza, as they only use data from respiratory-associated deaths. While this ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "would",
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                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": " include deaths caused by influenza that had, for example, influenza listed as a secondary cause of death on death certificates, it ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "would",
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                                "children": [
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                                        "text": "miss",
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                            {
                                "text": " some that were caused by influenza but attributed to another cause like cardiovascular disease. Had these models used all-cause mortality to estimate deaths caused by influenza, they would have been more sensitive (captured more deaths caused by influenza) but also less specific (captured more deaths caused by other diseases that could not be distinguished easily).",
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                            },
                            {
                                "spanType": "span-newline"
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                                "spanType": "span-newline"
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                            {
                                "text": "In comparison to CDC estimates, GLaMOR used many country-specific indicators in order to extrapolate seasonal influenza mortality to countries that did not provide weekly or monthly influenza mortality records or influenza surveillance data, while the CDC extrapolated this using mainly the WHO Global Health Estimates of respiratory mortality.{/ref}",
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "These estimates focus on deaths where people had respiratory disease. This means they miss some flu deaths, as some people may die from cardiovascular complications of the flu without having respiratory disease.{ref}The global number of people who die from other complications of the flu is unclear. ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Paget et al. (the authors of the GLaMOR project) state in their paper that their estimate \u201cdoes not cover cardiovascular deaths, something that could at least double the estimate of influenza-associated deaths.\u201d",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
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                    },
                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "In recent meta-analyses, Behrouzi et al. found that influenza vaccination reduces the chances of major cardiovascular events (such as heart attacks and strokes) by around 34%, in clinical trials of the elderly.",
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                            }
                        ],
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                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "This suggests the death toll from other complications could be large. However, global estimates have not been made of these types of deaths from flu.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "parseErrors": []
                    },
                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Paget, J., Danielle Iuliano, A., Taylor, R. J., Simonsen, L., Viboud, C., & Spreeuwenberg, P. (2022). Estimates of mortality associated with seasonal influenza for the European Union from the GLaMOR project. Vaccine, 40(9), 1361\u20131369. ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.11.080",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.11.080",
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                                ],
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Behrouzi, B., Bhatt, D. L., Cannon, C. P., Vardeny, O., Lee, D. S., Solomon, S. D., & Udell, J. A. (2022). Association of Influenza Vaccination With Cardiovascular Risk: A Meta-analysis. JAMA Network Open, 5(4), e228873. ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.8873",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.8873",
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                            },
                            {
                                "text": "{/ref}",
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "On the map, you can see the estimates of flu mortality shown as a rate per 100,000 people, among people aged over 65.\u00a0",
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                            }
                        ],
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                        "type": "text",
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                            {
                                "text": "In Europe, the rate of deaths from the flu was 30.8 per 100,000 each year, among those aged over 65. This is more than three times the risk from traffic accidents, which kill 9 per 100,000, in the same age group.{ref}Eurostat. (2022). ",
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                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "Causes of death\u2014Standardised death rate",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ". European Commission.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/HLTH_CD_ASDR2__custom_3500876/default/table?lang=en",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": " https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/HLTH_CD_ASDR2__custom_3500876/default/table?lang=en",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
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                            {
                                "spanType": "span-newline"
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                            {
                                "text": "Transport accidents are counted under (V01\u2013V99, Y85) in the ICD-10. Across 27 EU countries, these rates were 9.02, 9.15, and 8.77 per 100,000 people aged over 65 in 2015, 2016 and 2017 respectively.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
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                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Estimates of the rate of death from influenza are much lower in the ICD-10 since they only consider deaths where influenza is listed as the cause of death on death certificates, while the estimates we show above also include those that are caused by flu indirectly. This means ICD-10 death rates are likely to be highly underestimated for the flu. However, deaths caused by traffic accidents are more likely to be listed as the primary cause of death on death certificates and are much less underestimated by death certificate data.{/ref}\u00a0",
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                            }
                        ],
                        "parseErrors": []
                    },
                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "In low-income countries, these estimates tend to be less certain, due to lower levels of testing for influenza and limited mortality records.\u00a0",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
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                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "But flu is estimated to be more deadly in countries in South America, Africa, and South Asia than in Europe and North America. For example, Indonesia has more than twice the death rate of Canada. These disparities are at least partly due to poverty, poorer underlying health, and lower access to healthcare.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
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                    }
                ],
                "type": "sticky-right",
                "right": [
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-mortality-rate-from-seasonal-influenza-ages-65?tab=map&country=South-East+Asia~OWID_WRL~Western+Pacific~Eastern+Mediterranean~Africa~Europe~Americas",
                        "type": "chart",
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            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "What did influenza mortality look like in the past?",
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                    }
                ],
                "type": "heading",
                "level": 2,
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "left": [
                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Death rates from influenza are much lower than they were in the past.",
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                            }
                        ],
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                    },
                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "We don\u2019t have good long-term estimates of flu deaths across most countries. But, researchers have produced weekly estimates of influenza deaths over long periods in the United States. This allows us to see how modern rates compare to the past. You can see this data in the chart.{ref}Acosta, E., Hallman, S. A., Dillon, L. Y., Ouellette, N., Bourbeau, R., Herring, D. A., Inwood, K., Earn, D. J. D., Madrenas, J., Miller, M. S., & Gagnon, A. (2019). Determinants of Influenza Mortality Trends: Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Influenza Mortality in the United States, 1959\u20132016. ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "Demography",
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                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ", ",
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                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "56",
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                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "(5), 1723\u20131746.",
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                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-019-00809-y",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": " https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-019-00809-y",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                            {
                                "text": "From 1960 to 2015, the number of deaths from influenza was estimated using a Serfling model, which estimates the excess number of deaths during flu seasons using data from the rest of the year and accounting for changes that occur year by year. Since 1997, there has also been routine testing for \"influenza-like illnesses\" in hospitals to determine the share of them that are actually caused by influenza, rather than other diseases. Therefore, estimates from 1997 to 2015 were also calculated using a Serfling-surveillance model, which accounted for the share of tests that were positive for influenza. This also validates the estimates from the regular Serfling model. In addition, deaths among children aged under 5 are excluded in both models, as they would be likely to include deaths from respiratory syncytial virus.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "parseErrors": []
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Mortality in the US was slightly lower in during the 2009 Swine flu pandemic season than usual flu seasons, as severe disease shifted away from the elderly to young and middle-aged adults. However, the 2009 Swine flu pandemic led to more deaths than regular flu seasons in other countries such as Mexico. ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Gagnon, A., Acosta, E., Hallman, S., Bourbeau, R., Dillon, L. Y., Ouellette, N., Earn, D. J. D., Herring, D. A., Inwood, K., Madrenas, J., & Miller, M. S. (2018). Pandemic Paradox: Early Life H2N2 Pandemic Influenza Infection Enhanced Susceptibility to Death during the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic. ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "MBio",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ", ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "9",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "(1), e02091-17. ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://doi.org/10.1128/mBio.02091-17",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "https://doi.org/10.1128/mBio.02091-17",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "{/ref}",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "parseErrors": []
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Deaths from influenza fluctuate across the year, with large peaks in the winter.{ref}Influenza viruses are thought to transmit more efficiently during the winter due to lower temperatures and humidity. But in many tropical countries, flu epidemics coincide with warm rainy seasons, so the trends may have more causes. Other explanations include seasonal changes in human immunity or changes in human behavior, such as more indoor mixing and crowding. Petrova, V. N., & Russell, C. A. (2018). The evolution of seasonal influenza viruses. ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "Nature Reviews Microbiology",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ", ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "16",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "(1), 47\u201360.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://doi.org/10.1038/nrmicro.2017.118",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": " https://doi.org/10.1038/nrmicro.2017.118",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "{/ref} The ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "total",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": " number of deaths from influenza has been roughly stable in the United States over the last 65 years. You can see this in the top panel of the chart.",
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                            }
                        ],
                        "parseErrors": []
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "However, a large part of this is due to the fact that the population has been growing and aging.",
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "If we look at death rates ",
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                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "within",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": " age groups, the rate of deaths from influenza has been falling. You can see this in the bottom panel, which accounts for changes in the size and age structure of the population. ",
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                            }
                        ],
                        "parseErrors": []
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "This means the likelihood that someone dies from influenza ",
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                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "at a given age",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": " has declined over time. But, because the population is getting larger and older, the total number of deaths has remained stable.",
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                            }
                        ],
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                ],
                "type": "sticky-right",
                "right": [
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                        "alt": "",
                        "size": "wide",
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            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "Why has influenza mortality declined over time?",
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                    }
                ],
                "type": "heading",
                "level": 2,
                "parseErrors": []
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                "left": [
                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Influenza mortality has declined over several generations. We know this from historical data from the United States, which has been used to estimate \"cohort effects\". This tells us whether people who were born more recently have lower risks of death, after accounting for their younger age.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Since 1900, there has been a long-term decline in the risk of dying from the flu.{ref} Between 1860 and 1900, there was a slight increase in the risk of death from influenza, which may have been due to worsening health conditions as more people moved into crowded urban areas.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "parseErrors": []
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Acosta, E., Hallman, S. A., Dillon, L. Y., Ouellette, N., Bourbeau, R., Herring, D. A., Inwood, K., Earn, D. J. D., Madrenas, J., Miller, M. S., & Gagnon, A. (2019). Determinants of Influenza Mortality Trends: Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Influenza Mortality in the United States, 1959\u20132016. Demography, 56(5), 1723\u20131746. ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-019-00809-y",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-019-00809-y",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "{/ref} There are several reasons for this.\u00a0",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "parseErrors": []
                    },
                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "One is that there were large projects to improve sanitation in cities across the United States in the early 1900s.{ref}Cutler, D., & Miller, G. (2005). The role of public health improvements in health advances: The twentieth-century United States. ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "Demography",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ", ",
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                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "42",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "(1), 1\u201322.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://doi.org/10.1353/dem.2005.0002",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": " ",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://doi.org/10.1353/dem.2005.0002%7B/ref",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "https://doi.org/10.1353/dem.2005.0002",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "{/ref} Over the twentieth century, there were also improvements in neonatal healthcare and increases in the rate of ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/vaccination",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "childhood vaccinations",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ". All of these factors had benefits that carried forward as people aged: they protected people from developing comorbidities that increased the risk of dying from influenza.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "parseErrors": []
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "There has also been an increase in the rate of flu vaccinations. Influenza vaccines were developed for the first time in the 1930s and 1940s. In 1952, the World Health Organization began a surveillance system to monitor which flu strains were circulating worldwide. This helped researchers develop new vaccines each year that matched those strains.{ref}Barberis, I., Myles, P., Ault, S. K., Bragazzi, N. L., & Martini, M. (2016). History and evolution of influenza control through vaccination: From the first monovalent vaccine to universal vaccines. ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "Journal of Preventive Medicine and Hygiene",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ", ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "57",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "(3), E115\u2013E120. ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5139605/",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5139605/",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": " {/ref} Over the following decades, ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/influenza-vaccination-rate?country=NZL~GRC~ISR~TUR~LVA~POL~EST~SVK~AUT~HUN~CZE~LTU~SVN~LUX~DEU~FIN~ISL~BEL~FRA~SWE~CRI~AUS~CAN~CHL~NLD~MEX~GBR~USA~CHE~KOR~ESP~IRL~ITA~JPN~NOR~PRT~DNK",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "the rate of influenza vaccinations among the elderly",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": " began to grow.{ref}Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, & National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. (2021). ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "Historical Reference of Seasonal Influenza Vaccine Doses Distributed",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ".",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccine-supply-historical.htm",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": " https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccine-supply-historical.htm",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "{/ref}\u00a0",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "The historical decline in influenza mortality has been substantial, as you can see in the chart.",
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Even when they reached the same age, people born in 1940 had around a third of the risk of dying from influenza as those born in 1900. This decline continued, and those born in 1980 had a risk of half that of those born in 1940.{ref}These estimates are more variable for young age groups, particularly those born after 1990 because the number of influenza deaths to make comparisons were low, especially as deaths in children under 5 were excluded from the models, to avoid counting deaths from respiratory syncytial virus.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "spanType": "span-newline"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "Acosta, E., Hallman, S. A., Dillon, L. Y., Ouellette, N., Bourbeau, R., Herring, D. A., Inwood, K., Earn, D. J. D., Madrenas, J., Miller, M. S., & Gagnon, A. (2019). Determinants of Influenza Mortality Trends: Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Influenza Mortality in the United States, 1959\u20132016. ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "Demography",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ", ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "56",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "(5), 1723\u20131746.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-019-00809-y",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": " https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-019-00809-y",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "{/ref}",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
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                ],
                "type": "sticky-right",
                "right": [
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                        "alt": "People born more recently have a lower risk of dying from influenza. Even when they reached the same age, people born in 1940 had a third of the risk of dying from flu than those born in 1900. This risk halved further for those born in 1980.",
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                        "type": "image",
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            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "Which factors affect the number of deaths from the flu?",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "type": "heading",
                "level": 2,
                "parseErrors": []
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            {
                "left": [
                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Age is a major risk factor of dying from the flu. As you can see in the chart, infants and the elderly tend to have a much higher risk of death from a range of respiratory diseases, including influenza, compared to young adults. For example, 60-year-olds have a ten times greater risk of death from influenza than 20-year-olds.{ref}Metcalf, C. J. E., Paireau, J., O\u2019Driscoll, M., Pivette, M., Hubert, B., Pontais, I., Nickbakhsh, S., Cummings, D. A. T., Cauchemez, S., & Salje, H. (2022). Comparing the age and sex trajectories of SARS-CoV-2 morbidity and mortality with other respiratory pathogens. ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "Royal Society Open Science",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ", ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "9",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "(6), 211498.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.211498",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": " https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.211498",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            }
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "In this post, we show the relative risks of death. This is because it's more difficult to give an absolute risk of death from influenza at different ages, because mortality rates vary widely over time and between countries, as we saw earlier. Absolute risks depend on how many people are infected during a flu season, the availability of healthcare, the rates of vaccination, and so on. However, the ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "relative",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": " risk of death \u2013\u00a0ratio between the risk of death in one age group versus another \u2013\u00a0tends to be more consistent.{/ref}",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "parseErrors": []
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Once someone reaches their twenties, their mortality risk from the flu increases exponentially. This shape follows the risk of death from all causes.{ref}The shape of this age\u2013mortality curve is often described by the Gompertz function. Olshansky, S. J., & Carnes, B. A. (1997). Ever since gompertz. ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "Demography",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ", ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "34",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "(1), 1-15. ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.2307/2061656.pdf",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.2307/2061656.pdf",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": " {/ref}\u00a0",
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                            }
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "The risk of dying from influenza also depends on other factors such as the quality of healthcare, the strain of influenza, and whether the person received the flu vaccine.{ref}Belongia, E. A., Simpson, M. D., King, J. P., Sundaram, M. E., Kelley, N. S., Osterholm, M. T., & McLean, H. Q. (2016). Variable influenza vaccine effectiveness by subtype: A systematic review and meta-analysis of test-negative design studies. ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "The Lancet Infectious Diseases",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ", ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "16",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "(8), 942\u2013951.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(16)00129-8",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": " https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(16)00129-8",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "{/ref} ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Every year, influenza vaccines are reformulated to match the strains of flu that are expected to dominate during the winter. When there is a mismatch between the strains in the vaccine and the flu strains that are circulating, the vaccines tend to have lower efficacy, and flu seasons tend to be more severe.{ref}Tricco, A. C., Chit, A., Soobiah, C., Hallett, D., Meier, G., Chen, M. H., Tashkandi, M., Bauch, C. T., & Loeb, M. (2013). Comparing influenza vaccine efficacy against mismatched and matched strains: A systematic review and meta-analysis. ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "BMC Medicine",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
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                            },
                            {
                                "text": ", ",
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                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "11",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "(1), 153.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://doi.org/10.1186/1741-7015-11-153",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": " https://doi.org/10.1186/1741-7015-11-153",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "{/ref}",
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                "type": "sticky-right",
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                        "alt": "The risk of death from respiratory diseases increases exponentially with age. This is shown for influenza, MERS, Covid-19 and SARS. On average, people aged 20 have a tenth of the risk of death from influenza as people aged 60.",
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            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "Why are some flu seasons so severe?",
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                "level": 2,
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                "left": [
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                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Some seasons are far more severe than usual seasonal influenza. This tends to occur when new influenza strains arise and cause influenza pandemics.\u00a0",
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                            }
                        ],
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                                "text": "Over time, influenza viruses that are circulating in the population tend to mutate through a process called \"antigenic drift\". This gives them the ability to evade people's immunity.",
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                                "text": "But, influenza viruses can also evolve with large and sudden changes. This happens in a process called \u201cantigenic shift\u201d, when parts of different strains combine with each other. These new combinations can be more infectious and lethal than previous strains, leading to deadlier pandemics.",
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "For example, the Spanish flu evolved from a combination of human influenza and another animal influenza, which formed a new H1N1 influenza virus. As you can see in the chart, it caused ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/spanish-flu-largest-influenza-pandemic-in-history",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "the largest influenza pandemic in history",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ": research by Spreeuwenberg et al. (2018) suggests that the Spanish flu killed around 17.4 milion people. Other estimates are even higher: Johnson and Mueller (2002) suggest that the Spanish flu killed between 50 to 100 million people.{ref}\u201cReassessing the Global Mortality Burden of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic\u201d. American Journal of Epidemiology. 187 (12): 2561\u20132567. doi:10.1093/aje/kwy191. PMID 30202996. Online ",
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                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://academic.oup.com/aje/article/187/12/2561/5092383",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "here",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ".",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "spanType": "span-newline"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "Johnson, N. P., & Mueller, J. (2002). Updating the accounts: Global mortality of the 1918-1920\" Spanish\" influenza pandemic. ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "Bulletin of the History of Medicine",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ", 105\u2013115.{/ref}\u00a0",
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "This death toll massively exceeds the number who die in a typical year from the flu \u2013 it is between 30 to 340 times higher than the estimate of 294,000 to 518,000 deaths that are caused by seasonal influenza each year, even though the ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-growth",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "global population was much smaller at the time",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ".{ref}Paget J, Spreeuwenberg P, Charu V, Taylor RJ, Iuliano AD, Bresee J, Simonsen L, Viboud C; Global Seasonal Influenza-associated Mortality Collaborator Network and GLaMOR Collaborating Teams*. Global mortality associated with seasonal influenza epidemics: New burden estimates and predictors from the GLaMOR Project. J Glob Health. 2019 Dec;9(2):020421. doi: 10.7189/jogh.09.020421. ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31673337/",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31673337/",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                                "spanType": "span-link"
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                            {
                                "text": " {/ref} ",
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                            {
                                "text": "Mortality during the Spanish flu rose sharply in young adults, compared to previous seasons. Research suggests that this is because they lacked immunity to H1 influenza viruses because they had been exposed to different influenza strains in their childhood. In contrast, older generations had been exposed to similar H1 influenza viruses decades before the pandemic began, which gave them some protection from the H1N1 pandemic strain.{ref}Worobey, M., Han, G.-Z., & Rambaut, A. (2014). Genesis and pathogenesis of the 1918 pandemic H1N1 influenza A virus. ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
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                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ", ",
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                            {
                                "children": [
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                                        "text": "111",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "(22), 8107\u20138112.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1324197111",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": " https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1324197111",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    },
                                    {
                                        "spanType": "span-newline"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "Gagnon, A., Miller, M. S., Hallman, S. A., Bourbeau, R., Herring, D. A., Earn, D. J. D., & Madrenas, J. (2013). Age-specific mortality during the 1918 influenza pandemic: Unravelling the mystery of high young adult mortality. ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "PloS One",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ", ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                            {
                                "children": [
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                                        "text": "8",
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                            },
                            {
                                "text": "(8), e69586.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0069586",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": " https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0069586",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    },
                                    {
                                        "spanType": "span-newline"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "Luk, J., Gross, P., & Thompson, W. W. (2001). Observations on Mortality during the 1918 Influenza Pandemic. ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "Clinical Infectious Diseases",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ", ",
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                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "33",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "(8), 1375\u20131378.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://doi.org/10.1086/322662",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": " https://doi.org/10.1086/322662",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "spanType": "span-newline"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "Ma, J., Dushoff, J., & Earn, D. J. D. (2011). Age-specific mortality risk from pandemic influenza. ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "Journal of Theoretical Biology",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ", ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "288",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ", 29\u201334. ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2011.08.003",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2011.08.003",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "{/ref}",
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            {
                "text": [
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                        "text": "Conclusion",
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
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                        "text": "Seasonal flu causes 400,000 respiratory deaths each year on average. But the burden is far lower than it was in the past, due to improvements in sanitation, healthcare, and vaccination.",
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                ],
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "The flu also remains a large burden around the world for two major reasons. One is that many people around the world still lack access to healthcare and have low rates of influenza vaccination, which increases the risk of death.",
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                    }
                ],
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Another reason is that the populations of many countries have been aging rapidly. In lower-income countries, the flu could become a larger burden as they face ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/historic-and-un-pop-projections-by-age",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "aging populations in the future",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ".",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "To tackle this risk, the world can take lessons from how the burden has been reduced in the past. One way is to increase the rates of influenza vaccination, as well as other routine vaccinations, which also reduce the risk that flu is severe. Another is to improve sanitation and access to healthcare around the world.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "We've already seen a huge decline in the burden of the flu over many decades, and with greater efforts, we could see that burden decline even further.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
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            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "Keep reading on Our World in Data:",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-bold"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-italic"
                    }
                ],
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Acknowledgments:",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-bold"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " Hannah Ritchie, Max Roser and Edouard Mathieu provided very helpful guidance and comments that helped improve this post.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            }
        ],
        "type": "article",
        "title": "How many people die from the flu?",
        "authors": [
            "Saloni Dattani",
            "Fiona Spooner"
        ],
        "excerpt": "The risk of death from influenza has declined over time, but globally, hundreds of thousands of people still die from the disease each year.",
        "dateline": "October 20, 2022",
        "subtitle": "The risk of death from influenza has declined over time, but globally, hundreds of thousands of people still die from the disease each year.",
        "sidebar-toc": false,
        "featured-image": "Flu-deaths-thumbnail.png"
    },
    "createdAt": "2022-10-17T11:22:54.000Z",
    "published": false,
    "updatedAt": "2023-05-17T21:17:28.000Z",
    "revisionId": null,
    "publishedAt": "2022-10-20T10:45:00.000Z",
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    "publicationContext": "listed"
}

{
    "id": "wp-53526",
    "slug": "carbon-pricing",
    "content": {
        "toc": [],
        "body": [
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "The true cost of burning fossil fuels is not reflected in their market price. People ",
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                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/cheap-renewables-growth",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "often compare",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " the ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "monetary price",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-italic"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " of fossil fuels to low-carbon alternatives such as renewables or nuclear energy. But these comparisons do not capture each option\u2019s social impact, even in a purely economic sense.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
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                        "text": "Burning fossil fuels drives ",
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                    {
                        "url": "http://ourworldindata.org/climate-change",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "climate change",
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                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
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                    {
                        "text": ". The impacts of climate change come at a cost \u2013 these impacts are already happening.",
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "They also cause local air pollution, which ",
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                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/data-review-air-pollution-deaths",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "kills millions",
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                    {
                        "text": " every year and has negative health impacts for many more.",
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                        "text": "One way to address this is to put a price on carbon. The purpose of setting a carbon price is to capture some of these external costs in the market.",
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                        "text": "My colleague, Max Roser, wrote a detailed case for a carbon price ",
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                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/carbon-price",
                        "children": [
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                                "children": [
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                                        "text": "here",
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                        "text": "Putting a price on carbon achieves a couple of things. First, it makes more polluting fuels, products, and services more expensive. Burning coal becomes ",
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                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/safest-sources-of-energy",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "much more expensive",
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                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
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                    {
                        "text": " than using solar energy. Beef gets ",
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                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/food-footprints",
                        "children": [
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                                "text": "more expensive",
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                        ],
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                    {
                        "text": " relative to tofu or meat alternatives. It makes the \u2018cleaner\u2019 option less expensive.",
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                ],
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Second, it means it\u2019s those who emit greenhouse gases that pay for it.",
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                        "text": "There are a few policies through which countries can put a price on carbon:",
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                                        "text": "Carbon tax: ",
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                            },
                            {
                                "text": "this is a levy that is applied to the production of greenhouse gas emissions directly or fuels that emit these gases when they\u2019re burned. This means goods and services which emit more greenhouse gases in their production will have a higher tax.",
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                                "children": [
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                                        "text": "Emissions trading system: ",
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                                "text": "this is sometimes called a \u2018cap and trade\u2019 system. Here, the carbon price changes over time. A maximum level of pollution (a \u2018cap\u2019) is defined and manufacturers need licenses to emit greenhouse gases. How expensive these licenses are is determined by a trading system. The price of a license increases as emissions approach the cap.",
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "Many countries have adopted carbon pricing instruments.",
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "In this article, we provide an overview of which countries have them, and how the price of carbon is changing over time. The underlying data \u2013 from the ",
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                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://www.rff.org/publications/working-papers/world-carbon-pricing-database-sources-and-methods/",
                        "children": [
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                                "text": "World Carbon Pricing Dataset",
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                        ],
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                    {
                        "text": " \u2013 is updated annually.{ref}Dolphin, G., & Xiahou, Q. (2022). ",
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                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41597-022-01659-x",
                        "children": [
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                                "text": "World Carbon Pricing Database: Sources and Methods",
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                    {
                        "text": ". ",
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                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Nature Scientific Data",
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                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-italic"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ".{/ref} It is assembled by Geoffroy Dolphin. We will keep the data in this article updated. ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "Which countries have a carbon tax?",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "type": "heading",
                "level": 2,
                "parseErrors": []
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            {
                "left": [
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "The first chart shows which countries have implemented a carbon tax.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "parseErrors": []
                    },
                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "It\u2019s often the case that only specific sectors, or specific fuels, in a given country are subject to a carbon tax. For example, heavy industry or household electricity might have a carbon tax, but road transport might not.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "parseErrors": []
                    },
                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "A country is coded as having a carbon tax if ",
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                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "any",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": " of its sectors have one. This means the country does not\u00a0necessarily\u00a0have an economy-wide tax in place. ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "parseErrors": []
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "One final note: the World Carbon Pricing Database only looks at taxes applied to carbon dioxide (CO",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "2",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-subscript"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ") emissions. It does not consider taxes on non-CO",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "2 ",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-subscript"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "greenhouse gases, such as methane or nitrous oxide.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "parseErrors": []
                    }
                ],
                "type": "sticky-right",
                "right": [
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                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/carbon-tax-instruments",
                        "type": "chart",
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                ],
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            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "What is the level of carbon taxes?",
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                ],
                "type": "heading",
                "level": 3,
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                "left": [
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Having a carbon tax does not guarantee that it will be effective. The level of carbon tax rates matters. It needs to be sufficiently expensive to de-incentivize carbon-emitting activities, and incentivize low-carbon ones.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "parseErrors": []
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "In the chart, we see the carbon price in countries that have implemented a tax.",
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                            }
                        ],
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Since carbon prices might vary from sector to sector, or some sectors will have a carbon price while others won\u2019t, the authors calculate an \u2018emissions-weighted\u2019 carbon price. This price is weighted according to each sector\u2019s contribution to a country\u2019s CO",
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                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
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                                        "text": "2",
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                                "text": " emissions.",
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "Which countries have a carbon emissions trading system?",
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                                "text": "The alternative to a carbon tax is a \u2018cap and trade\u2019 system. This is where the number of emission allowances/licenses, or the amount that a country or sector can emit, is fixed. Companies and sectors within the economy can then buy and sell carbon credits. This supply and demand determine the price of carbon in the marketplace.",
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                                "text": "The most well-known \u2018cap and trade\u2019 system is the European Union\u2019s ",
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                            },
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                                "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_Emissions_Trading_System",
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                                        "text": "Emissions Trading System",
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                                "text": " (EU ETS). It was first introduced in 2005.",
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                                "text": "But a number of other countries have implemented one at the national or sub-national level.",
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                                "text": "In the chart, we see which countries have implemented an emissions trading system. Again, a country is coded as having a system if at least one sector is covered by one.",
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                        "text": "What is the carbon price in emissions trading systems?",
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                                "text": "The supply and demand for carbon credits within an economy determines the carbon price. If the amount of available credits is low compared to demand, then the price will be higher. If there are many available credits then the price will be low, and companies will not be incentivized to reduce their emissions. This means the carbon price changes over time.",
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                                "text": "In the map, we see the carbon price in emissions trading systems across the world. Again, if the price varies by sector, these prices are weighted by each sector\u2019s contribution to the country\u2019s CO",
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                                "text": " emissions.",
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                        "text": " emissions are covered by a carbon tax or emissions trading system?",
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                        "text": "If we want the climate cost of fuels and products to be reflected in their market price we would want a carbon pricing mechanism everywhere.",
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                        "text": " In 2020, around 12% of emissions were in countries or sectors that had a carbon tax. Just 6% were covered by a trading system. This means that, in total, a carbon price had to be paid on 18% of global emissions.",
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                        "text": "We see the share of global CO",
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                                "text": "2",
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                    {
                        "text": " emissions that are covered by each in the chart. The map also shows the share of emissions in each country that are covered by either a carbon tax or emissions trading system.",
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                ],
                "parseErrors": []
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "This data is currently only shown to 2020. As of 2021, this coverage expanded dramatically \u2013 to 25% of global CO",
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                        "children": [
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                                "text": "2",
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                    {
                        "text": " emissions \u2013 because China started its national emissions trading system. This will be reflected in the next update of this dataset.",
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                ],
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                "left": [
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                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/carbon-tax-trading-coverage?tab=chart&country=~OWID_WRL",
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                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "Keep reading at ",
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                    },
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Our World in Data",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                ],
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            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "Acknowledgments",
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                ],
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            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Many thanks to Geoffroy Dolphin and Felix Pretis for the provision of data from the World Carbon Pricing Database, and feedback on this work. Thanks also to Max Roser, Edouard Mathieu and Bastian Herre for editorial feedback on this article.",
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                    }
                ],
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        ],
        "type": "article",
        "title": "Which countries have put a price on carbon?",
        "authors": [
            "Hannah Ritchie",
            "Pablo Rosado"
        ],
        "excerpt": "Putting a price on carbon helps us account for the real costs of fossil fuels in the market. Which countries have a carbon tax or trading system?",
        "dateline": "October 14, 2022",
        "subtitle": "Putting a price on carbon helps us account for the real costs of fossil fuels in the market. Which countries have a carbon tax or trading system?",
        "sidebar-toc": false,
        "featured-image": "Carbon-taxes-featured-image.png"
    },
    "createdAt": "2022-10-11T10:22:07.000Z",
    "published": false,
    "updatedAt": "2022-10-14T11:06:38.000Z",
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    "publishedAt": "2022-10-14T10:00:00.000Z",
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{
    "id": "wp-53401",
    "slug": "plastic-waste-trade",
    "content": {
        "toc": [],
        "body": [
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Most of the plastic that enters the oceans from land ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/ocean-plastics",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "comes from",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " rivers in Asia.{ref}It\u2019s estimated that around 70% to 80% of the plastic in the ocean comes from land. The other 20% to 30% comes from marine sources, such as fishing nets and lines.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "spanType": "span-newline"
                    },
                    {
                        "spanType": "span-newline"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": "In some parts of the ocean, the contribution of marine sources is higher. For example, it\u2019s estimated that up to 52% of the plastic mass in the \u2018Great Pacific Garbage Patch\u2019 is plastic lines, ropes, and fishing nets.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "spanType": "span-newline"
                    },
                    {
                        "spanType": "span-newline"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": "Li, W. C., Tse, H. F., & Fok, L. (2016). ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969716310154",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Plastic waste in the marine environment: A review of sources, occurrence and effects",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ". ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Science of the Total Environment",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-italic"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ", 566, 333-349.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Lebreton, L., Slat, B., Ferrari, F., Sainte-Rose, B., Aitken, J., Marthouse, R., \u2026 & Noble, K. (2018). ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-22939-w",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Evidence that the Great Pacific Garbage Patch is rapidly accumulating plastic",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ". ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Scientific Reports",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-italic"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ", 8(1), 4666.{/ref} More than 80% of it.{ref}One of the most recent estimates from Meijer et al. (2021) estimates that 81% of plastic waste that is emitted to the ocean comes from Asia.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "An earlier study, by Lebreton et al. (2017), estimated a similar figure of 86% coming from Asian rivers.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Meijer, J.J.L, Emmerik, T., Ent, R., Schmidt, C., Lebreton, L. (2021). ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/7/18/eaaz5803",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "More than 1000 rivers account for 80% of global riverine plastic emissions into the ocean",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ". ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Science Advances",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-italic"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ".",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Lebreton, L. C., Van der Zwet, J., Damsteeg, J. W., Slat, B., Andrady, A., & Reisser, J. (2017). ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms15611",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "River plastic emissions to the world\u2019s oceans",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ". ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Nature Communications",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-italic"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ", 8, 15611.{/ref}",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Only a small amount comes from rivers across Europe and North America. Together, ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-of-global-plastic-waste-emitted-to-the-ocean?tab=chart&country=Africa~Asia~Europe~South+America~North+America~Oceania",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "rivers in these regions contribute",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " just 5% of the global total. This would suggest that the world\u2019s richest countries don\u2019t contribute much to the problem of plastic pollution.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "But, these numbers only look at the plastic that is emitted ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "domestically",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-italic"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ". They don\u2019t consider the fact that many countries export plastic waste overseas. If it was the case that the UK exported a lot of its plastic waste to countries where waste management systems are poor, and lots of plastic leaks into the environment, the UK would have a large indirect impact on ocean pollution.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Here I use global data to understand the scale of plastic waste trade. I look at who the biggest exporters and importers are, and where this waste ends up.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "I estimate that a few percent \u2013 possibly up to 5% \u2013 of the world\u2019s ocean plastics could come from rich countries exporting their waste overseas. That could bring the total up to 10%: 5% directly from rivers in these regions, plus a further 5% from trade.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "How much of the world\u2019s plastic waste is traded?",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "type": "heading",
                "level": 2,
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "left": [
                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Importing plastics can often bring economic benefits. Recycled plastics can be repurposed into other goods, and fed into manufacturing industries. This is often cheaper than buying or making virgin plastics from scratch.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "parseErrors": []
                    },
                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "In 2020, around 5 million tonnes of plastic waste was traded globally.{ref}Here I\u2019m using data on plastic trade from the ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://comtrade.un.org/data/",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "UN Comtrade Database",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ". Data is sourced from the commodity category: \u20183915 \u2013 Waste, parings, and scrap, of plastics\u2019.{/ref} We might imagine that the pandemic forced a large reduction in plastic trade, but this doesn\u2019t seem to be the case. In 2019, rates were only slightly higher, at around 6 million tonnes.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "parseErrors": []
                    },
                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Let\u2019s put those 5 million tonnes into context.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "parseErrors": []
                    },
                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "The world generates around 350 million ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/plastic-waste-by-sector",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "tonnes of plastic waste",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": " per year. That means that around 2% of waste is traded.{ref}5 million is 2% of 350 million.{/ref}",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "parseErrors": []
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                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "The remaining 98% is handled domestically. It\u2019s sent to a landfill, recycled, or incinerated in the country where the waste was generated. The idea that ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "most",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": " of the world\u2019s plastic waste is shipped overseas is incorrect. One reason why this figure is so low is that it\u2019s mostly recycled waste that\u2019s traded, and only 20% of the world\u2019s plastic is recycled.{ref}Geyer, R., Jambeck, J. R., & Law, K. L. (2017). ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.1700782",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "Production, use, and fate of all plastics ever made",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ". ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "Science Advances",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ", 3(7), e1700782.{/ref}",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "parseErrors": []
                    },
                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Over the last decade, we\u2019ve seen a large decline in the amount of plastic waste traded. Rates have fallen by two-thirds since 2010.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "parseErrors": []
                    }
                ],
                "type": "sticky-right",
                "right": [
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/plastic-pollution?time=2007..latest&facet=none&country=~OWID_WRL&Metric=Waste+trade&Per+capita=false&Share+of+world+total=false&Sub-metric=Exports&hideControls=true",
                        "type": "chart",
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                ],
                "parseErrors": []
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            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "What was the impact of the Chinese ban on plastic trade?",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "type": "heading",
                "level": 2,
                "parseErrors": []
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Policies in China toward plastic trade have had a large impact on the global change shown in the previous chart.",
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                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "In 2016, China was importing more than half of the world\u2019s traded plastic waste. By 2018, this had plummeted to less than 1%. We see this in the chart.",
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                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "The reason for this dramatic decline was the Chinese government banning the import of most types of plastic waste in 2017. This was part of a broader policy decision to stop the import of 24 different types of solid waste including paper, textiles, and plastics. These bans were implemented as a result of environmental and health concerns from contaminated waste streams.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                ],
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "This ban had two major impacts.{ref}Wen, Z., Xie, Y., Chen, M., & Dinga, C. D. (2021). ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-20741-9",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "China\u2019s plastic import ban increases prospects of environmental impact mitigation of plastic waste trade flow worldwide",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ". ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Nature Communications",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-italic"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ", 12(1), 1-9.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Brooks, A. L., Wang, S., & Jambeck, J. R. (2018). ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aat0131",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "The Chinese import ban and its impact on global plastic waste trade",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ". ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Science Advances",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
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                    },
                    {
                        "text": ", 4(6).{/ref} The first was that the total volume of plastic trade globally dropped significantly \u2013 we saw earlier that global trade has halved since 2017. The second was that other countries emerged to take China\u2019s place as major importers. Most of them are also countries in Asia \u2013 Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Turkey, ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://owid.cloud/admin/explorers/preview/plastic-pollution?time=earliest..2018&facet=none&country=MYS~IDN~TUR~VNM&Metric=Waste+trade&Sub-metric=Imports&Per+capita=false&Share+of+world+total=false",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "started to import",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " much more plastic than in previous years.",
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                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
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            {
                "left": [
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/plastic-pollution?time=2007..latest&facet=none&country=~CHN&Metric=Waste+trade&Per+capita=false&Share+of+world+total=false&Sub-metric=Imports&hideControls=true",
                        "type": "chart",
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                "type": "sticky-right",
                "right": [
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/plastic-pollution?time=2007..2018&facet=none&country=MYS~TUR~VNM~IDN&Metric=Waste+trade&Per+capita=false&Share+of+world+total=false&Sub-metric=Imports&hideControls=true",
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            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "Most plastic waste is traded within world regions, rather than between them",
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                    }
                ],
                "type": "heading",
                "level": 2,
                "parseErrors": []
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                "left": [
                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Where does plastic waste flow across the world?",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "parseErrors": []
                    },
                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Europe is the region that exports the most plastic, but it's also the region that imports the most.",
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                            }
                        ],
                        "parseErrors": []
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "This is true more generally. Most plastic is traded ",
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                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "within",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": " a given region. European countries export most plastic to other European countries. Asian countries export most to other Asian countries.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "parseErrors": []
                    },
                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "In the visualization, we see the flow of plastic across the world.{ref}This is based on data from the OECD report:",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "parseErrors": []
                    },
                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Brown, A., F. Laubinger and P. B\u00f6rkey (2022), \"",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/environment/monitoring-trade-in-plastic-waste-and-scrap_8f3e9c56-en",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "Monitoring trade in plastic waste and scrap",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "\", OECD Environment Working Papers, No. 194, OECD Publishing, Paris.{/ref} On the left we have the exporters of plastic waste; on the right, we see where that plastic ends up. The height of each bar is proportional to the amount of plastic that is traded.",
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Europe is the biggest exporter of plastic. But, it\u2019s also the biggest importer. Many countries across Europe trade with one another. At the national level, Germany is the biggest exporter ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "and",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": " importer \u2013 it trades different plastics with its neighbors including the Netherlands, Poland, Austria, and Switzerland.{ref}Brown, A., F. Laubinger and P. B\u00f6rkey (2022), \"",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/environment/monitoring-trade-in-plastic-waste-and-scrap_8f3e9c56-en",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "Monitoring trade in plastic waste and scrap",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": "\", OECD Environment Working Papers, No. 194, OECD Publishing, Paris.{/ref}",
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "This is also true of Asia, where Japan is the biggest exporter to other countries in Asia.",
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                        "alt": "",
                        "size": "wide",
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                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "Do rich countries export most of their plastic waste overseas?",
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                "level": 2,
                "parseErrors": []
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "Many people think that rich countries ship ",
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                            {
                                "text": "most",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                        "spanType": "span-italic"
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                    {
                        "text": " of their plastic waste overseas. But is this really true?",
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                "parseErrors": []
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "The short answer is no: many countries export some of their waste, but they still handle most of it domestically.",
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Let\u2019s take the example of the UK. In 2010, ",
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                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/plastic-waste-generation-total",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "it generated",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " an estimated 4.93 million tonnes of plastic waste.{ref}Jambeck, J. R., Geyer, R., Wilcox, C., Siegler, T. R., Perryman, M., Andrady, A., ... & Law, K. L. (2015). Plastic waste inputs from land into the ocean. Science, 347(6223), 768-771.{/ref} It exported 838,000 tonnes overseas.\u00a0",
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                "parseErrors": []
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "That means it exported about 17% of its plastic waste. That\u2019s a substantial fraction \u2013 nearly one-fifth of it.",
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                ],
                "parseErrors": []
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "This data is for 2010, a year with good high-quality estimates of plastic waste generation. It\u2019s still likely to be a reasonable estimate today. If anything, this share might have declined slightly, because waste exports have not increased, and waste generation probably has.",
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "When it comes to the fraction of plastic waste that is exported, the UK is one of the largest exporters. For context, the US exported about 5% of its plastic waste in 2010. France exported 11%, and the Netherlands exported 14%. ",
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
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                        "text": "Most rich countries ",
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                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "are",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                        ],
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                    {
                        "text": " net exporters of plastic waste. And this can be a significant fraction of their waste. But it\u2019s not the case that they handle ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "most",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-italic"
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                    {
                        "text": " of it by offshoring it to other countries.",
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                ],
                "parseErrors": []
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            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "How much do rich countries contribute to plastic pollution through their exported waste?",
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                    }
                ],
                "type": "heading",
                "level": 2,
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "This is the crucial question. While we don\u2019t have an exact answer, we can give a plausible range.",
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                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "To give an exact answer we would need to trace each piece of plastic pollution back to its original source. But we can do some calculations to estimate how much plastic is at ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "higher risk",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-italic"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " of entering the ocean because of this trade.\u00a0",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "In 2020, low-to-middle-income countries \u2013 where plastic waste was at a \u2018higher risk\u2019 of entering the ocean (because of poorer waste management systems) \u2013 imported around 1.6 million tonnes of plastic waste from rich countries. Here \u2018rich countries\u2019 include all countries in Europe and North America, plus Japan, Hong Kong, and OECD countries from other regions.{ref}A ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/environment/monitoring-trade-in-plastic-waste-and-scrap_8f3e9c56-en",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "report by the OECD",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " provides a summary of trade flows of plastic waste across the world. We saw this in the Sankey diagram, earlier in the post. The authors use data from the ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://comtradeplus.un.org/",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "UN Comtrade database",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " to calculate these figures.",
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                ],
                "parseErrors": []
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
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                        "text": "From these figures, we see that in 2020, non-OECD countries in Asia imported around 1.9 million tonnes of plastic waste. \u2018Rest of the World\u2019, which in this case is mostly lower-income countries across Africa and South America imported 0.12 million tonnes, and China also imported 0.12 million tonnes. Combined, these low-to-middle-income countries imported 2.14 million tonnes.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "0.57 million tonnes of this came from countries ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "within",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-italic"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " this group i.e. low-to-middle-income countries.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                ],
                "parseErrors": []
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "That leaves around 1.6 million tonnes that come from richer countries, which is the sum of Europe, North America, Hong Kong, and Japan.{/ref}",
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                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "How much of this plastic ends up in the ocean?",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Again, we don\u2019t know for sure. But we can run through a worst and best-case scenario.",
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                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
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                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Here we will assume that all of this traded waste was \u2018mismanaged\u2019, meaning it was not formally managed and was either littered or dumped in open landfills. In reality, not all of it will be mismanaged, but let\u2019s be conservative here.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "The ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/probability-mismanaged-plastic-ocean",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "probability that",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " mismanaged waste ends up in the ocean varies a lot by country.\u00a0",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "The country where the probability is highest is the Phillippines \u2013 an estimated 7% ends up in the ocean.{ref}This estimate comes from the work of Meijer et al. (2021), published in ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Science Advances",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-italic"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ".",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Meijer, L. J., van Emmerik, T., van der Ent, R., Schmidt, C., & Lebreton, L. (2021). ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aaz5803",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "More than 1000 rivers account for 80% of global riverine plastic emissions into the ocean",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ". Science Advances, 7(18), eaaz5803.{/ref} We could imagine this being our \u2018worst-case\u2019 scenario: if rich countries exported ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "all",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-italic"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " of their plastic trade to the Philippines, 7% of it might end up in the ocean. That would be 112,000 tonnes.{ref}We can calculate this as 7% of 1.6 million tonnes, which is around 112,000 tonnes.{/ref}",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
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            {
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "In a \u2018best-case\u2019 scenario, only around 1% of mismanaged waste would end up in the ocean. Most countries across the world have a risk of just under 1%. In Asia, this would be typical of countries such as Thailand and Cambodia. In this \u2018best-case\u2019 scenario, around 16,000 tonnes of ocean plastics each year would enter the ocean from trade.{ref}We can calculate this figure as 1% of 1.6 million tonnes, which gives us 16,000 tonnes.{/ref}",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "This gives us an upper and lower bound for the contribution of trade from rich countries. Since around ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/ocean-plastics",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "one million tonnes",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " of plastic enters the ocean each year, rich countries would contribute between 1.6% (in the best case) and 11% (in the worst case) of ocean plastics through shipping waste overseas.{ref}Meijer et al. (2021) estimate that around 1 million tonnes of plastic are emitted into the oceans each year. They put the uncertainty range on this between 0.8 and 2.6 million tonnes.",
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                        "text": "Meijer, J.J.L, Emmerik, T., Ent, R., Schmidt, C., Lebreton, L. (2021). ",
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                        "url": "https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/7/18/eaaz5803",
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                                "text": "More than 1000 rivers account for 80% of global riverine plastic emissions into the ocean",
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                        "text": ". ",
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                                "text": "Science Advances",
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                        "text": "We get these figures by calculating 16,000 and 112,000 tonnes as a share of 1 million. That comes to 1.6% and 11%.{/ref}",
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                        "text": "The true figure probably falls somewhere in between. A reasonable estimate might be around 5% of ocean plastics. In reality, it might be a bit lower because a tonne of waste that is bought and traded is more likely to be managed well than the average tonne of waste in a country.",
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                                "text": "I estimate that a few percent of ocean plastics could result from trade from rich countries. A figure as high as 5% would not be unreasonable.",
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                        "text": "Ending plastic trade would only do a bit to reduce plastic pollution \u2013 what is needed are better waste-management systems",
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                                "text": "Stopping exports of plastic waste to countries with poor waste management would help to tackle ocean pollution.\u00a0",
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                                "text": "If rich countries banned the export of plastic waste to these countries, we might reduce plastic pollution a bit: perhaps up to 5%.",
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                                "text": "But, an end to trade won\u2019t stop plastic pollution. Only a small fraction of the world\u2019s plastic waste is traded \u2013 under 2%. And most \u2013 two-thirds of it \u2013 ends up in richer countries, where it\u2019s very unlikely to end up in the ocean.",
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                                "text": "There are obvious reasons to reduce these exports beyond the plastic pollution problem. Countries ",
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                                "url": "https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-48444874",
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                                        "text": "have been guilty",
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                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
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                                "text": " of exporting contaminated recycling plastic packages \u2013 one of the drivers for countries to ban plastic imports. This is unacceptable: poorer countries are not a dumping ground for the rich.",
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                                "text": "Most of the world\u2019s waste is handled domestically and most of the waste that enters the oceans stems from these countries. To really tackle the problem we need to do two things: scale waste management systems in rich countries; the fact that they are exporting waste overseas suggests they have under-invested in practices at home; and, importantly, improve waste management infrastructure and practices in low-to-middle-income countries, as this is where most plastic pollution originates.",
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                        "text": "Keep reading at ",
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                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Our World in Data",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                        "text": "...",
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "Acknowledgments",
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                        "text": "Many thanks to Max Roser, Edouard Mathieu, and Bastian Herre for feedback and suggestions on this article.",
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                ],
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        ],
        "type": "article",
        "title": "Ocean plastics: How much do rich countries contribute by shipping their waste overseas?",
        "authors": [
            "Hannah Ritchie"
        ],
        "excerpt": "Many countries ship plastic waste overseas. How much of the world\u2019s waste is traded, and how big is its role in the pollution of our oceans?",
        "dateline": "October 11, 2022",
        "subtitle": "Many countries ship plastic waste overseas. How much of the world\u2019s waste is traded, and how big is its role in the pollution of our oceans?",
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        "featured-image": "Plastic-waste-trade-featured-image.png"
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{
    "id": "wp-53245",
    "slug": "from-1-90-to-2-15-a-day-the-updated-international-poverty-line",
    "content": {
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            {
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                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "To track progress towards its goal of ",
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                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://sdg-tracker.org/no-poverty#1.1",
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                            {
                                "text": "eradicating extreme poverty by 2030",
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                        ],
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                    {
                        "text": ", the UN relies on World Bank estimates of the share of the world population that fall below the International Poverty Line.",
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                        "text": "In September 2022, the figure at which this poverty line is set shifted from $1.90 to $2.15. This reflects a change in the units in which the World Bank expresses its poverty and inequality data \u2013 from international dollars given in ",
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                                "text": "2011",
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                    {
                        "text": " prices to international dollars given in ",
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                                "text": "2017",
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                        "text": " prices.",
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                        "text": "In this article we consider what the World Bank\u2019s revised methodology means for our understanding of global poverty. We then also explain the updated methodology: what international dollars are, what the change to 2017 prices mean, and how this change affects the International Poverty Line and the World Bank\u2019s poverty estimates.",
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                                "text": "How does the updated International Poverty Line affect our understanding of global poverty?",
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                        "text": "The crucial fact to know about the World Bank\u2019s updated International Poverty Line is that, whilst the number has risen \u2013 from $1.90 to $2.15 per day \u2013 in terms of the goods and services that it affords, the value is broadly the same.",
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                        "text": "This is because the units in which the old and new figures are counted have changed: the $1.90 figure was expressed in 2011 international-$, and the new figure of $2.15 is expressed in 2017 international-$.",
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                        "text": "Below we explain in much more detail what international dollars are and what the change in base year means. But broadly speaking, the difference in the two units reflects inflation over time: Because prices have gone up, one 2017 international-$ buys a smaller quantity of goods and services than one 2011 international-$. This leaves the real value of the revised International Poverty Line broadly equal to what it was before.",
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                        "text": "This continuity is reflected in the data: Overall the update only very modestly changes our understanding of the extent of extreme poverty globally. We see this in the two charts below that show the share and number of people in extreme poverty using the old and updated methodologies.",
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                        "text": "Estimates of the share of people living in extreme poverty globally for 2019 \u2013 the latest available year \u2013 are slightly lower using the updated methodology: 8.4% as compared to 8.7%. That translates to 20 million fewer people living in extreme poverty.",
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                        "text": "We also see a slightly faster decline in poverty over recent decades using the updated methodology. Looking back to the 1990s, estimates of the share in extreme poverty using the updated methodology are around 1.5% points higher \u2013 or around 80 million people.",
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                                "text": "Differences within individual countries",
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                        "text": "There are only small changes to the World Bank\u2019s extreme poverty estimates at the global level. But the updated methodology has resulted in more substantial revisions to poverty estimates for some countries. These changes reflect a revision to the adjustments made to account for differences in the cost of living across countries, as explained in more detail below.",
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                        "text": "These revisions go in both directions: some countries see higher poverty estimates and others see lower estimates. These opposing differences are cancelling each other out when we look at the global figures.",
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                        "text": "Nigeria is one country that has seen a significant downward revision, with 16 million fewer people estimated to be living in extreme poverty in 2018. You can read more about this particular change in this ",
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                        "url": "https://blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/what-does-moving-2017-ppps-and-new-international-poverty-lines-mean-nigeria",
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                                "text": "World Bank blogpost",
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                        "text": ".",
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                        "text": "In Indonesia, the revision has gone in the other direction \u2013 the latest available estimates for 2021 show an additional 4 million people living in extreme poverty when calculated with the new methodology.",
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                        "text": "Despite significant differences in some individual countries, our overall understanding of the global distribution of extreme poverty has changed very little though. This can be seen from a comparison of the two map charts below which show the share of population in extreme poverty according to the old and updated World Bank methodologies.",
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                "text": [
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                                "text": "Changes in poverty estimates at higher poverty lines",
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                        "text": "The International Poverty Line is set by the World Bank to be representative of national definitions of poverty adopted in the world\u2019s poorest countries.",
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                        "text": "In addition to this very low poverty line the World Bank also sets two higher global poverty lines for measuring poverty: one that reflects the definitions of poverty adopted in lower-middle income countries, and one that reflects the definitions adopted in upper-middle income countries. Within the updated methodology, these lines are set at $3.65 and $6.85 in 2017 international-$, replacing the previous $3.20 and $5.50 lines expressed in 2011 international-$.",
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                        "text": "How have poverty estimates around the world changed with the revision of these higher lines?",
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                        "text": "As with the International Poverty Line, the real value of the lower-middle income poverty line is roughly the same across the two methodologies. Accordingly, global poverty estimates are again very similar across the old and updated methodologies \u2013 as we see in the first chart below.",
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                        "text": "In contrast, the update of the upper-middle income poverty line represents a real increase in the value of the line: This revised higher line buys more goods and services than the previously used figure. This real-terms increase is due to a rise in the national poverty lines to which the World Bank anchors this line, as discussed in more detail below.",
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                        "text": "Since the real value of the poverty line is significantly higher, unsurprisingly the prevalence of poverty when measured with the updated methodology is higher \u2013 as shown in the second chart.\u00a0",
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                                "text": "Explore the data",
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                        "text": "In this data explorer, you can compare the World Bank\u2019s 2011 and 2017 international-$ estimates for a range of key poverty metrics.",
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                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/poverty-explorer-2011-vs-2017-ppp?Indicator=Share+in+poverty&International-%24=Compare+2017+and+2011+prices&Poverty+line=International+Poverty+Line&Household+survey+data+type=Show+data+from+both+income+and+consumption+surveys&country=MOZ~NGA~KEN~BGD~BOL~OWID_WRL&hideControls=false",
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                        "children": [
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                                "text": "Understanding the World Bank\u2019s updated poverty estimates: what does the shift from 2011 to 2017 international-$ mean?",
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                        "text": "At the heart of the update is a change in the units that the World Bank uses to count and compare the incomes of households in different countries at different times.",
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                        "text": "These units are called ",
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                                "text": "international dollars ",
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                        "text": "\u2013 a hypothetical currency that adjusts for inflation and differences in the cost of living between countries.",
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                        "text": "To understand the update to the World Bank\u2019s methodology we need a good understanding of what these units mean and how they are calculated. In the box below we give a summary.\u00a0",
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                                                "text": "Much of the economic data we use to understand the world \u2013 for instance on the goods and services bought or produced by households, firms and governments, or the incomes they receive \u2013 is initially recorded in terms of the units in which these transactions took place. That means this data starts out being expressed in a variety of local currencies \u2013 as so many rupees, US dollars, or yuan, etc. \u2013 and without adjusting for inflation over time. This is known as being in \u2018current prices\u2019, or in \u2018nominal\u2019 terms.",
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                                        "value": [
                                            {
                                                "text": "Before these figures can be meaningfully compared, they need to be converted into common units.",
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                                        "type": "text",
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                                                "text": "International dollars (int.-$) are a hypothetical currency that is used for this. It is the result of adjusting both for inflation within countries over time and for differences in the cost of living between countries.",
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                                                "text": "The goal of international-$ is to provide a unit whose ",
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                                            {
                                                "children": [
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                                                        "text": "purchasing power",
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                                            {
                                                "text": " is held fixed over time and across countries, such that one int.-$ can buy the same quantity and quality of goods and services no matter where or when it is spent.",
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                                                "text": "The price level in the US is used as the benchmark \u2013 or \u2018numeraire\u2019 \u2013 so that one 2017 int.-$ is defined as the value of goods and services that one US dollar would buy ",
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                                            {
                                                "children": [
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                                                        "text": "in the US in 2017",
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                                                "text": ".",
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                                            {
                                                "text": "The year ",
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                                                        "text": "2017",
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                                            {
                                                "text": " here indicates two things, related to the two adjustments mentioned. Firstly, it tells us the ",
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                                            },
                                            {
                                                "children": [
                                                    {
                                                        "text": "base year",
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                                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                                            },
                                            {
                                                "text": " used for the inflation adjustment within countries. This is the year whose prices are chosen to be the benchmark. If prices are higher than this benchmark year, nominal data will be adjusted downwards. If prices are lower, nominal data will be adjusted upwards. In the base year itself, the nominal and inflation-adjusted figures are the same by definition.\u00a0",
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                                                "text": "Secondly, ",
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                                                        "text": "2017",
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                                                "text": " indicates the year in which the differences in the cost of living between countries was assessed.",
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                                        "text": [
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                                                "children": [
                                                    {
                                                        "text": "Purchasing Power Parity rates",
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                                                "text": "Converting data in local currencies to international-$ means dividing the figures by a set of \u2018exchange\u2019 rates, known as Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) rates. Unlike the exchange rates between currencies you would see at the foreign exchange counter, these account for differences in the cost of living between countries.",
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                                                "text": "If you have ever shopped or eaten in a restaurant abroad, you may have noticed a country as being a particularly expensive or particularly cheap place to live. A given amount of your own currency, when exchanged for another country\u2019s currency, may buy you considerably more or less there than it would have done at home.",
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                                                "text": "The goal of PPP rates is to account for these price differences. They express, for each country, the amount of local currency that is needed to buy the same goods and services there as 1 US dollar buys in the US.",
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                                            {
                                                "text": "You can read more about this in our article ",
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                                            {
                                                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/what-are-ppps",
                                                "children": [
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                                                        "children": [
                                                            {
                                                                "text": "What are PPP adjustments and why do we need them?",
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                                        "text": [
                                            {
                                                "children": [
                                                    {
                                                        "text": "The \u2018rounds\u2019 of the International Comparison Program",
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                                                "text": "The calculation of PPP rates is the task of the ",
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                                            {
                                                "url": "https://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/icp",
                                                "children": [
                                                    {
                                                        "text": "International Comparison Program",
                                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                                    }
                                                ],
                                                "spanType": "span-link"
                                            },
                                            {
                                                "text": " (ICP), which gathers data on the prices of thousands of goods and services in each country in a particular year.",
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                                                "text": "The ICP does not calculate PPP rates every year, but rather conducts its work in \u2018rounds\u2019 that are several years apart. The most recent round was conducted in 2017 and the previous round was conducted in 2011.",
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                                                "text": "In converting economic data to international-$, which round of PPPs are used to adjust for cost-of-living differences between countries is, in principle, a separate issue to the base year used to adjust for inflation over time. By convention, however, the same year tends to be chosen for both. When converted to ",
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                                                        "text": "2017",
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                                            {
                                                "text": " international-$, nominal local currencies are first adjusted for inflation to local ",
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                                                "children": [
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                                                        "text": "2017",
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                                            {
                                                "text": " prices, and are then adjusted to US prices using the PPPs calculated in the ICP\u2019s 2017 round. Likewise, 2011 international-$ adjust for inflation using 2011 local prices, and then use the 2011 PPPs to adjust for cost-of-living differences.",
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                "text": [
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                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "How do incomes measured in 2011 and 2017 international dollars compare?",
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                ],
                "type": "heading",
                "level": 2,
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                        "text": "The World Bank\u2019s shift from measuring household incomes in 2011 to 2017 international-$ has affected the data in two ways, relating to the two different adjustments made in the calculation of international-$.",
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                        "text": "Firstly, it reflects the impact of inflation between 2011 and 2017. Secondly, it reflects a revised assessment of how the cost of living compares in different countries, as presented in the 2017 Purchasing Power Parity rates published by the ",
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                        "url": "https://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/icp",
                        "children": [
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                                "text": "International Comparison Program",
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                    {
                        "text": ".",
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                "text": [
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "The impact of inflation: a general rise in income figures",
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                        "text": "As explained in more detail in the box above:",
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                                "text": "One ",
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                            {
                                "children": [
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                                        "text": "2017",
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                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": " int.-$ is defined as the value of goods and services that one US dollar would buy in the US in ",
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                            {
                                "children": [
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                                        "text": "2017",
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                            {
                                "text": ".",
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                                "text": "One ",
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                                        "text": "2011",
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                            {
                                "text": " int.-$ is defined as the value of goods and services that one US dollar would buy in the US in ",
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                                "children": [
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                                        "text": "2011",
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                                "text": ".",
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                        "text": "The amount of goods and services that one US dollar bought in the US changed over these years. There was inflation of around 9%, meaning that one US dollar bought 9% less in the US in 2017 than it did in 2011.{ref}According to World Bank data on the ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL?locations=US",
                        "children": [
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                                "text": "Consumer Price Index",
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                        "text": ", the price level (relative to 2010) in 2011 was 103.2% and the price level in 2017 was 112.4%. The increase in prices was therefore 112.4/103.2 = 1.089, or approximately 9%. These are the same figures that the World Bank uses to adjust its data on household incomes for inflation within each country.{/ref}",
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                        "text": "This also means that one 2017 int.-$ buys around 9% less than one 2011 int.-$, and this is one key way in which the two units differ. Expressing incomes in 2017 international-$ generally results in higher numbers than when expressed in 2011 international-$.\u00a0",
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "You can see this general increase in the chart here which compares the average income or consumption per person, as expressed in 2011 international-$ (shown on the x-axis) and in 2017 international dollars (on the y-axis).",
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                        "text": "The 45 degree line indicates the point where the two numbers would be equal. You see that in almost all countries, average incomes are \u2018higher\u2019 when expressed in 2017 international-$ than in 2011 international-$.",
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                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/mean-income-or-expenditure-per-day-2011-vs-2017-international-",
                "type": "chart",
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                "text": [
                    {
                        "children": [
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                                "text": "The impact of the new 2017 PPPs: a change in countries\u2019 relative income levels",
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                ],
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                        "text": "But we also see in the chart above that the increase is not uniform across countries. In fact, some\u00a0 countries fall below the 45 degree line: their incomes count as ",
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                    {
                        "children": [
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                                "text": "fewer",
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                    {
                        "text": " 2017 international-$ than they do 2011 international-$.",
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "You can see these differences in more detail in this chart, which plots the average income or consumption expenditure of countries over time \u2013 as measured in both 2011 and 2017 international-$.",
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                        "text": "The incomes are plotted on a log scale to show proportional differences more clearly. Again we see that the switch to 2017 international-$ generally shifts the incomes data up by a certain proportion \u2013 but the proportion varies for each country. In the chart we have selected particular countries to demonstrate the range of differences we see in the data, but you can change which countries or regions are shown using the 'Add country' button.",
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                        "text": "At one end of the spectrum are countries such as Angola whose figures shift up by a large amount. The figure for the average level of consumption in Angola is 80% higher when expressed in 2017 international-$ than in 2011 international-$. At the opposite end of the spectrum is Ghana, whose figures fall by around 25%.",
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                        "text": "In the US \u2013 the \u2018numeraire\u2019 country for the purposes of the PPP adjustment \u2013 the rise is 9%, in-line with US inflation as discussed above.",
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                        "text": "The different shifts we see across countries means that, with the new 2017 international-$, we have an updated understanding of how incomes compare across countries. Those countries that see a bigger jump in their income figures when measured in the new units now appear relatively richer than countries with a smaller, or even negative jump.\u00a0",
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                        "text": "But what explains these such very different jumps, and how are we to interpret them? Is it that our previous understanding, based on the old 2011 PPPs, was ",
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                    {
                        "children": [
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                                "text": "wrong",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                    {
                        "text": "?\u00a0",
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "Part of the complication of interpreting the switch to 2017 international-$ is that two factors are operating at the same time.",
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                        "text": "Firstly, the change in PPPs reflects changes in the methods and underlying price data used by the ICP. Producing these estimates, in as comparable a way as possible, is a huge and very complex task and not surprisingly the ICP adapts and refines the methods they use in different rounds. Moreover, the quality and coverage of the country price data that go into these calculations is also generally improving over time. It is not necessarily the case that the quality of the estimates improve in every aspect or for every country, but in general the new PPPs do indeed give us a better, truer picture of how incomes compare around the world.{ref}You can read about these changes and a summary of the ICP\u2019s current methods in its ",
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                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/33623/9781464815300.pdf?sequence=4&isAllowed=y",
                        "children": [
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                                "text": "2017 report",
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                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
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                    {
                        "text": ". ",
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                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/353811645450974574/pdf/Assessing-the-Impact-of-the-2017-PPPs-on-the-International-Poverty-Line-and-Global-Poverty.pdf",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Dean Joliffe and others (2022)",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
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                        "text": " provide a helpful comparison of the ICPs methods in the 2011 and 2017 rounds in the context of global poverty measurement.{/ref}",
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                        "text": "Secondly, the change in PPPs reflect actual changes in relative price levels across countries. Inflation happens at different rates in different countries. In part, such changes are accounted for by the inflation adjustment made when converting data to international-$, as discussed above. But the way that PPP rates are calculated means that the change in PPPs need not exactly track these various national inflation rates. When a new cross-country assessment of price levels is made, there can be a gap with what would have been expected based on the previous set of PPPs extended forward with national inflation data.{ref}A helpful \u2013 although quite detailed and technical \u2013 explanation of why this gap can exist can be found in this ",
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                    {
                        "url": "http://reparti.free.fr/maddi2020.pdf",
                        "children": [
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                                "text": "methodological note",
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                        "text": " from the team behind the Maddison Project Database \u2013 another cross-country dataset of incomes that uses international-$ adjustments.",
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                        "text": "At the heart of the problem is that, when comparing the overall price level in two places or two years you need to account not just for the prices of each product but also the quantity of that product bought or produced in each country \u2013 the ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                        "children": [
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                                "text": "weights",
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                        "spanType": "span-italic"
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                        "text": " attached to each product when calculating the average price level. Both the prices and the weights differ between countries. This means that straightforward comparisons of the price level between different pairs of countries needn\u2019t be consistent with each other \u2013 the difference in prices between country A and C, need not be the same as the combined differences between country A and country B and country B and country C (in technical terms, they are not ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                        "children": [
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                                "text": "transitive",
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                        "text": "). For the purposes of making international comparisons this is clearly an unhelpful property. In calculating PPPs, the IPC use a method for comparing price levels that yields transitive rates. A consequence of this is that there can be inconsistency between the change in price levels found across various rounds of PPPs and the inflation rates recorded in individual countries.{/ref}",
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                        "text": "Because the change in PPPs in part pick up \u2018real\u2019 changes in the relative price levels between countries, some data providers expressing income data in international-$ - such as the ",
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                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/productivity/pwt/?lang=en",
                        "children": [
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                                "text": "Penn World Tables",
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                        "text": " - use PPPs from multiple ICP rounds and adopt techniques to interpolate, or smooth out the jumps between the rounds. An important downside of this approach, however, is that the trends in income calculated with this approach do not then necessarily match up with the trends observed in the original national data, prior to conversion to international-$.",
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "This \u2018multiple benchmarks\u2019 approach is not the route that the World Bank takes. It uses just one set of PPPs \u2013 from the latest available ICP round \u2013 applied back over the whole time span of its data. This makes the trends over time consistent with the original data, but it means that the adoption of a new set of PPPs can generate significant revisions to our understanding of income levels in different countries \u2013 both now and in the past.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
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            {
                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/poverty-explorer-2011-vs-2017-ppp?yScale=log&hideControls=true&Indicator=Mean+income+or+consumption&International-%24=Compare+2017+and+2011+prices&Poverty+line=International+Poverty+Line&Household+survey+data+type=Show+data+from+both+income+and+consuption+surveys&country=AGO~NGA~VNM~USA~BRA~GHA",
                "type": "chart",
                "parseErrors": []
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            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "The World Bank\u2019s updated poverty lines",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-bold"
                    }
                ],
                "type": "heading",
                "level": 2,
                "parseErrors": []
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "A key aspect of the World Bank\u2019s updated methodology is that, along with the change in the units by which it measures household incomes, it has also updated the International Poverty Line against which it measures extreme poverty.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "To help explain this change, in the box below we describe what the International Poverty Line is and how it is calculated, along with the higher poverty lines set by the World Bank.",
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                    }
                ],
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                "type": "gray-section",
                "items": [
                    {
                        "text": [
                            {
                                "text": "Additional information",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "type": "heading",
                        "level": 2,
                        "parseErrors": []
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                        "type": "expandable-paragraph",
                        "items": [
                            {
                                "left": [
                                    {
                                        "type": "text",
                                        "value": [
                                            {
                                                "text": "There is no single definition of poverty. Our understanding of the extent of poverty and how it is changing depends on which definition we have in mind.",
                                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                            }
                                        ],
                                        "parseErrors": []
                                    },
                                    {
                                        "type": "text",
                                        "value": [
                                            {
                                                "text": "In particular, richer and poorer countries set very different poverty lines in order to measure poverty in a way that is informative and relevant to the level of incomes of their citizens.",
                                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                            }
                                        ],
                                        "parseErrors": []
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                                        "type": "text",
                                        "value": [
                                            {
                                                "text": "For instance, while in the United States a person is counted as being in poverty if they live on less than roughly $24.55 per day, in Ethiopia the poverty line is set more than 10 times lower \u2013 at $2.04 per day. You can read more about how these comparable national poverty lines are calculated in this footnote.{ref}Official definitions of poverty in different countries are often not directly comparable due to the different ways poverty is measured. For example, countries account for the size of households in different ways in their poverty measures.",
                                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                            }
                                        ],
                                        "parseErrors": []
                                    },
                                    {
                                        "type": "text",
                                        "value": [
                                            {
                                                "text": "The poverty lines shown here are an approximation of national definitions, harmonized to allow for comparisons across countries. For all countries apart from the US, we take the harmonized poverty line calculated by Jolliffe et al. (2022). These lines are calculated as the international dollar figure which, in the World Bank\u2019s ",
                                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                            },
                                            {
                                                "url": "https://pip.worldbank.org/",
                                                "children": [
                                                    {
                                                        "children": [
                                                            {
                                                                "text": "Poverty and Inequality Platform",
                                                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                                            }
                                                        ],
                                                        "spanType": "span-italic"
                                                    }
                                                ],
                                                "spanType": "span-link"
                                            },
                                            {
                                                "children": [
                                                    {
                                                        "text": " ",
                                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                                    }
                                                ],
                                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                                            },
                                            {
                                                "text": "(PIP)",
                                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                            },
                                            {
                                                "children": [
                                                    {
                                                        "text": " ",
                                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                                    }
                                                ],
                                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                                            },
                                            {
                                                "text": "data, yields the same poverty rate as the officially reported rate using national definitions in a particular year (around 2017).",
                                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                            }
                                        ],
                                        "parseErrors": []
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                                        "type": "text",
                                        "value": [
                                            {
                                                "text": "For the US, Jolliffe et al. (2022) use the OECD\u2019s published poverty rate \u2013 which is measured against a relative poverty line of 50% of the median income. This yields a poverty line of $34.79 (measured using 2017 survey data). This however is not the official definition of poverty adopted in the US. We calculated an alternative harmonized figure for the US national poverty using the same method as Jolliffe et al. (2022), but based instead on the official 2019 poverty rate \u2013 ",
                                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                            },
                                            {
                                                "url": "https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2020/demo/p60-270.pdf",
                                                "children": [
                                                    {
                                                        "text": "as reported",
                                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                                    }
                                                ],
                                                "spanType": "span-link"
                                            },
                                            {
                                                "text": " by the U.S. Census Bureau.",
                                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                            },
                                            {
                                                "spanType": "span-newline"
                                            }
                                        ],
                                        "parseErrors": []
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                                        "type": "text",
                                        "value": [
                                            {
                                                "text": "You can see in detail how we calculated this poverty line in ",
                                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                            },
                                            {
                                                "url": "https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1IzHT9NikKHrY9uGWKzDzaZ4VVpdc9m5E",
                                                "children": [
                                                    {
                                                        "text": "this Google Colabs notebook",
                                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                                    }
                                                ],
                                                "spanType": "span-link"
                                            },
                                            {
                                                "text": ".",
                                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                            }
                                        ],
                                        "parseErrors": []
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                                    {
                                        "type": "text",
                                        "value": [
                                            {
                                                "children": [
                                                    {
                                                        "text": "Jolliffe, Dean Mitchell, Daniel Gerszon Mahler, Christoph Lakner, Aziz Atamanov, and Samuel Kofi Tetteh Baah. 2022. Assessing the Impact of the 2017 PPPs on the International Poverty Line and Global Poverty. The World Bank. Available to read at the ",
                                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                                    }
                                                ],
                                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                                            },
                                            {
                                                "url": "https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/353811645450974574/pdf/Assessing-the-Impact-of-the-2017-PPPs-on-the-International-Poverty-Line-and-Global-Poverty.pdf",
                                                "children": [
                                                    {
                                                        "children": [
                                                            {
                                                                "text": "World Bank here",
                                                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                                            }
                                                        ],
                                                        "spanType": "span-italic"
                                                    }
                                                ],
                                                "spanType": "span-link"
                                            },
                                            {
                                                "children": [
                                                    {
                                                        "text": ".",
                                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                                    }
                                                ],
                                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                                            },
                                            {
                                                "text": "{/ref}",
                                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                            }
                                        ],
                                        "parseErrors": []
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                                    {
                                        "type": "text",
                                        "value": [
                                            {
                                                "text": "To measure poverty globally, however, we need to apply a poverty line that is consistent across countries.\u00a0",
                                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                            }
                                        ],
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                                        "type": "text",
                                        "value": [
                                            {
                                                "text": "This is the goal of the International Poverty Line of $2.15 per day \u2013 shown in red in the chart \u2013 which is set by the World Bank and used by the UN to monitor extreme poverty around the world.",
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                                            }
                                        ],
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                                        "type": "text",
                                        "value": [
                                            {
                                                "text": "We see that, in global terms, this is an extremely low threshold indeed \u2013 set to reflect the poverty lines adopted nationally in the world\u2019s poorest countries. It marks an incredibly low standard of living \u2013 a level of income much lower than just the cost of a ",
                                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                            },
                                            {
                                                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/diet-affordability",
                                                "children": [
                                                    {
                                                        "text": "healthy diet",
                                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                                    }
                                                ],
                                                "spanType": "span-link"
                                            },
                                            {
                                                "text": ".",
                                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                            }
                                        ],
                                        "parseErrors": []
                                    },
                                    {
                                        "type": "text",
                                        "value": [
                                            {
                                                "children": [
                                                    {
                                                        "text": "How does the World Bank set the International Poverty Line?",
                                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                                    }
                                                ],
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                                            }
                                        ],
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                                ],
                                "type": "sticky-right",
                                "right": [
                                    {
                                        "alt": "",
                                        "size": "wide",
                                        "type": "image",
                                        "filename": "Five-income-distributions-national-poverty-and-IPL-1.png",
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                                    }
                                ],
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                            {
                                "left": [
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                                            {
                                                "text": "The exact method used by the World Bank to set the International Poverty Line has changed somewhat over past updates. But each time the objective has been broadly the same \u2013 to find a \u201ctypical standard by which the poorest countries of the world judge their citizens to be impoverished.\u201d{ref}As described by Dean Jolliffe and others (2022).",
                                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                            },
                                            {
                                                "spanType": "span-newline"
                                            },
                                            {
                                                "spanType": "span-newline"
                                            },
                                            {
                                                "text": "Jolliffe, Dean Mitchell, Daniel Gerszon Mahler, Christoph Lakner, Aziz Atamanov, and Samuel Kofi Tetteh Baah. 2022. ",
                                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                            },
                                            {
                                                "children": [
                                                    {
                                                        "text": "Assessing the Impact of the 2017 PPPs on the International Poverty Line and Global Poverty",
                                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                                    }
                                                ],
                                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                                            },
                                            {
                                                "text": ". The World Bank. Available online ",
                                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                            },
                                            {
                                                "url": "https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/353811645450974574/pdf/Assessing-the-Impact-of-the-2017-PPPs-on-the-International-Poverty-Line-and-Global-Poverty.pdf",
                                                "children": [
                                                    {
                                                        "text": "here",
                                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                                    }
                                                ],
                                                "spanType": "span-link"
                                            },
                                            {
                                                "text": ".{/ref}",
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                                            }
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                                        "type": "text",
                                        "value": [
                                            {
                                                "text": "The method used in the latest update to arrive at a figure of $2.15, measured in 2017 international-$, is based on a set of harmonized national poverty lines produced by ",
                                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                            },
                                            {
                                                "url": "https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/353811645450974574/pdf/Assessing-the-Impact-of-the-2017-PPPs-on-the-International-Poverty-Line-and-Global-Poverty.pdf",
                                                "children": [
                                                    {
                                                        "text": "Dean Joliffe and others",
                                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                                    }
                                                ],
                                                "spanType": "span-link"
                                            },
                                            {
                                                "text": " \u2013 shown in the chart here.",
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                                    {
                                        "type": "text",
                                        "value": [
                                            {
                                                "text": "As you can see, there is a strong correlation between the poverty lines countries set, shown on the Y axis, and their income level \u2013 as measured here by GDP per capita, and plotted along the X axis.",
                                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                            }
                                        ],
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                                    {
                                        "type": "text",
                                        "value": [
                                            {
                                                "text": "The International Poverty Line is calculated as the median national poverty line adopted among low-income countries \u2013 using the World Bank\u2019s income classification system. These are the countries shaded in red in the chart and found in the bottom left corner.",
                                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                            }
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                                                "text": "Although the International Poverty Line is by far the most prominent international line, the same method is also used by the World Bank to set two higher poverty lines that reflect the national definitions adopted in lower-middle and upper-middle income groups shown in green and purple respectively. The median poverty line among these two groups of countries are $3.65 and $6.85, and these form the the World Bank's lower-middle income and upper middle-income poverty lines.",
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                                            }
                                        ],
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                                        "value": [
                                            {
                                                "text": "You can read more about the methodology used to set these lines in the World Bank's flagship report on poverty, ",
                                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                            },
                                            {
                                                "children": [
                                                    {
                                                        "url": "https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/poverty-and-shared-prosperity",
                                                        "children": [
                                                            {
                                                                "text": "Poverty and Shared Prosperity",
                                                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                                            }
                                                        ],
                                                        "spanType": "span-link"
                                                    }
                                                ],
                                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                                            },
                                            {
                                                "text": ".",
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                                            }
                                        ],
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                                ],
                                "type": "sticky-right",
                                "right": [
                                    {
                                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/national-poverty-line-vs-gdp-per-capita",
                                        "type": "chart",
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                                ],
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            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Has the value of the World Bank\u2019s poverty lines changed?",
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                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-bold"
                    }
                ],
                "type": "heading",
                "level": 3,
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                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "A key question to ask of the World Bank\u2019s updated poverty lines is the extent to which their real value \u2013 in terms of the goods and services they can buy \u2013 have been maintained, or if instead they represent a shifting of the goalposts.",
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                    {
                        "text": "One way to answer this question, building on the explanation of change from 2011 to 2017 international-$ given above, is to compare the increase in the numbers to the rate of inflation in the US between these two years. An increase in-line with US inflation would indicate that the poverty lines have the same purchasing power. A rise greater than US inflation would indicate that the real value had increased. This is just a direct consequence of the definition of international-$ for a given base year \u2013 where one international-$ is defined as the value of goods and services that one US dollar could buy in that base year.\u00a0",
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                    {
                        "text": "Prices in the US rose by 9% between 2011 and 2017. In the case of both the International Poverty Line and the lower-middle income poverty line, the increase across the update was roughly similar \u2013 from $1.90 to $2.15 (13%) and from $3.20 to $3.65 (14%) respectively. That the rise was close to the US inflation rate implies that the purchasing power of the lines was similar before and after the update. And, as demonstrated above, this is reflected in the data: global poverty estimates according to these two poverty lines are very similar across the old and updated methodologies.",
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                    {
                        "text": "The upper-middle poverty line, however, rose by considerably more than US inflation \u2013 from $5.50 to $6.85, a 25% increase. Again, this is reflected in the data \u2013 with notably higher global poverty estimates resulting from the updated methodology.",
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                        "text": "Why would the World Bank \u2018shift the goal posts\u2019 by using a higher poverty line? This answer lies in the method the World Bank uses to set the line, just explained in the box above. The upper-middle income country poverty line was set at $5.50 in 2011 international-$ because this was the median poverty line observed among this group of countries at the time of the last update to the World Bank methodology.{ref}As documented by Dean Jolliffe and Espen Beer Prydz (2016), in which they introduced the method now applied by the World Bank.",
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                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Jolliffe, Dean, and Espen Beer Prydz. 2016. ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Estimating International Poverty Lines from Comparable National Thresholds",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-italic"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ". Washington, DC. Available online ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/24148/Estimating0int00national0thresholds.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "here",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ".{/ref}",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                ],
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                        "text": "Since that time, the national poverty lines of some countries in this group have been revised upwards as incomes generally increased. This dynamic was not present for the lower income groupings of countries: in these cases those countries with a rising poverty line were also graduating into a higher income group, thereby maintaining the median poverty line within their former income group roughly constant.{ref}See the paper by Dean Jolliffe and others (2022) that introduces the updated World Bank poverty lines and provides a breakdown of the different factors contributing to the change in the poverty lines.",
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                    {
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                        "text": "Jolliffe, Dean Mitchell, Daniel Gerszon Mahler, Christoph Lakner, Aziz Atamanov, and Samuel Kofi Tetteh Baah. 2022. ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Assessing the Impact of the 2017 PPPs on the International Poverty Line and Global Poverty",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-italic"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ". The World Bank. Available online ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/353811645450974574/pdf/Assessing-the-Impact-of-the-2017-PPPs-on-the-International-Poverty-Line-and-Global-Poverty.pdf",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "here",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                        "spanType": "span-link"
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                        "text": ".{/ref}",
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                "text": [
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Further reading",
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                            }
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                    }
                ],
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                        "text": "For a fuller understanding of international-$ and PPPs in the context of global poverty measurement you may find some of the following articles helpful.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "On the 2017 PPPs:",
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                            {
                                "text": "Jolliffe, Dean Mitchell, Daniel Gerszon Mahler, Christoph Lakner, Aziz Atamanov, and Samuel Kofi Tetteh Baah. 2022. ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "Assessing the Impact of the 2017 PPPs on the International Poverty Line and Global Poverty",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ". The World Bank. Available online ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/353811645450974574/pdf/Assessing-the-Impact-of-the-2017-PPPs-on-the-International-Poverty-Line-and-Global-Poverty.pdf",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "here",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ".",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "A ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/how-do-2017-ppps-change-our-understanding-global-and-regional-poverty",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "World Bank blog post",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": " considering the implication of the 2017 PPPs for global and regional poverty estimates.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
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                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "A ",
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                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/factsheet/2022/05/02/fact-sheet-an-adjustment-to-global-poverty-lines#8",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "World Bank factsheet",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": " concerning the updating of its global poverty lines",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
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                ],
                "parseErrors": []
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "And some more general discussions, in the context of past PPP rounds:",
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                        ],
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                ],
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            {
                "type": "list",
                "items": [
                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Deaton, Angus, and Bettina Aten. 2017. \u201cTrying to Understand the PPPs in ICP 2011: Why Are the Results So Different?\u201d ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": " 9 (1): 243\u201364. Working paper version available online ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://www.princeton.edu/~deaton/downloads/Deaton_Aten_Trying_to_understand_ICP_2011_V5.pdf",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "here",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ".",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "parseErrors": []
                    },
                    {
                        "type": "text",
                        "value": [
                            {
                                "text": "Bolt, Jutta, and Jan Luiten van Zanden. 2020. \u201cMaddison Style Estimates of the Evolution of the World Economy. A New 2020 Update.\u201d ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "University of Groningen, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, Maddison Project Working Paper",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ", no. 15. ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "http://reparti.free.fr/maddi2020.pdf",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "http://reparti.free.fr/maddi2020.pdf",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ".",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "parseErrors": []
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            }
        ],
        "type": "article",
        "title": "From $1.90 to $2.15 a day: the updated International Poverty Line",
        "authors": [
            "Joe Hasell"
        ],
        "excerpt": "The World Bank has updated the methods it uses to measure incomes and poverty around the world. What does this mean for our understanding of global poverty?",
        "dateline": "October 26, 2022",
        "subtitle": "The World Bank has updated the methods it uses to measure incomes and poverty around the world. What does this mean for our understanding of global poverty?",
        "sidebar-toc": false,
        "featured-image": "Poverty-line-thumbnail.png"
    },
    "createdAt": "2022-10-17T06:35:09.000Z",
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    "updatedAt": "2023-06-30T12:50:33.000Z",
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    "publishedAt": "2022-10-26T12:00:00.000Z",
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{
    "id": "wp-53117",
    "slug": "ike-reusable-block-test",
    "content": {
        "toc": [],
        "body": [
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "How do reusable blocks work?",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "I don't know",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            }
        ],
        "type": "article",
        "title": "Ike reusable block test",
        "authors": [
            null
        ],
        "dateline": "September 22, 2022",
        "sidebar-toc": false,
        "featured-image": ""
    },
    "createdAt": "2022-09-22T17:44:24.000Z",
    "published": false,
    "updatedAt": "2022-09-22T17:44:24.000Z",
    "revisionId": null,
    "publishedAt": "2022-09-22T17:44:24.000Z",
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{
    "id": "wp-52784",
    "slug": "what-do-poor-people-think-about-poverty",
    "content": {
        "toc": [],
        "body": [
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Our World in Data presents the data and research to make progress against the world\u2019s largest problems.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "spanType": "span-newline"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": "Find all our data and research on poverty on our ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/poverty",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "Poverty",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-bold"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " topic page.\n",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "One of the most important trends that we can learn from the work of social scientists and historians is that extreme poverty, as measured by people's level of consumption, has fallen considerably around the world in the ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-in-poverty-relative-to-different-poverty-thresholds-historical?country=~OWID_WRL",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "last two centuries",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ". But why should we care? Is it not the case that poor people might have less consumption but enjoy their lives just as much\u2014or even more\u2014than people with much higher consumption levels?",
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                    }
                ],
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "One way to find out is to simply ask. Subjective views are an important way of measuring welfare.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
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            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "This is what the ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Gallup Organization",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-italic"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " did. The ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://www.gallup.com/analytics/232838/world-poll.aspx",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Gallup World Poll",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " asked people around the world what they thought about their standard of living\u2014not only about their income. The following chart compares the answers of people in different countries with the average income in\u00a0those countries. It shows that, broadly speaking, people living in poorer countries\u00a0tend to be less satisfied with their living standards.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
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            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "Dissatisfaction with standard of living vs GDP per capita{ref} GDP per capita data from the World Bank. Survey data on the satisfaction with living standards is from the ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "http://www.gallup.com/services/170945/world-poll.aspx",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Gallup World Poll",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ". The idea for this chart is taken from Deaton (2010) \u2013 ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://rpds.princeton.edu/sites/rpds/files/media/deaton_price_indexes_inequality_and_the_measurement_of_world_poverty_aer.pdf",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Price Indexes, Inequality, and the Measurement of World Poverty",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ". In American Economic Review, 100, 1, 5--34. The lightly-shaded circles are for 2006, the darker circles for 2007, and the darkest circles are for 2008.{/ref}",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "type": "heading",
                "level": 2,
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                "alt": "",
                "size": "wide",
                "type": "image",
                "filename": "dissatisfied-vs-income.png",
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "This suggests that economic prosperity is not a vain, unimportant goal but rather a means for a better life. The correlation between rising incomes and higher self-reported life satisfaction\u00a0is shown in our ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "/happiness-and-life-satisfaction/",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "entry on happiness",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ".",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "This is more than a technical point about how to measure welfare. It is an assertion that matters for how we understand and interpret development.",
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                    }
                ],
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            {
                "type": "text",
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                    {
                        "text": "First, the smooth relationship between income and subjective well-being highlights the difficulties that arise from using a fixed threshold above which people are abruptly considered to be non-poor. In reality, subjective well-being does not suddenly improve above any given poverty line. This makes using a fixed poverty line to define destitution as a binary 'yes/no' problematic. Therefore, while the International Poverty Line is useful for understanding the changes in living conditions of the very poorest of the world, we must also take into account higher poverty lines reflecting the fact that living conditions at higher thresholds can still be destitute.",
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "And second, the fact that people with very low incomes tend to be dissatisfied with their living standards shows that it would be incorrect to take ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=poor+but+happy&safe=off&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwi3jtfEo4rQAhVJIcAKHSjuAoQQ_AUICCgB&biw=2560&bih=1272&gws_rd=cr&ei=lfcZWPrQCezQgAa07ZmQCw",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "a romantic view",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " on what 'life in poverty' is like. As the data shows, there is just no empirical evidence that would suggest that living with very low consumption levels is romantic.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "A disregard for or disinterest in poverty estimates that are calculated on the basis of low consumption and income levels is partly explained by the fact that it can be very difficult for people to imagine what it is like to\u00a0live with very little. Even economists who think a lot about income and poverty find it difficult to understand what it means to live on a given income level.\u00a0It is just hard to picture what life is like when all you know is a\u00a0\"dollar-per-day\" figure.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
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                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "To address this, Anna Rosling R\u00f6nnlund put together\u00a0a captivating, visual project at Gapminder.org in which she portrays the living conditions of people living at different income levels. In ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "url": "https://www.gapminder.org/dollar-street/matrix",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "Dollar Street",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-italic"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " you can find portraits of families and see how they cook, what they eat, how they sleep, what toilets they have available, what their children's toys look like, and much more.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            }
        ],
        "type": "article",
        "title": "What do poor people think about poverty?",
        "authors": [
            "Max Roser"
        ],
        "excerpt": "Some have a romantic view of what life on an extremely low income must be like. But we see from survey data that this is romantic view is not shared by those living in poverty themselves.",
        "dateline": "April 8, 2017",
        "subtitle": "Some have a romantic view of what life on an extremely low income must be like. But we see from survey data that this is romantic view is not shared by those living in poverty themselves.",
        "sidebar-toc": false,
        "featured-image": "dissatisfied-vs-income.png"
    },
    "createdAt": "2022-09-08T10:15:41.000Z",
    "published": false,
    "updatedAt": "2022-09-08T09:55:07.000Z",
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    "publishedAt": "2017-04-08T09:15:00.000Z",
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}

{
    "id": "wp-52710",
    "slug": "biological-and-chemical-weapons",
    "content": {
        "toc": [],
        "body": [
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "This page is now maintained in Google Docs: https://owid.cloud/admin/gdocs/1e4MZvBeyg5FxGb8sOKSjFRwHz3LIMbgf7UVa2b24ed0/preview",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
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            }
        ],
        "type": "article",
        "title": "Biological and Chemical Weapons",
        "authors": [
            "Bastian Herre",
            "Max Roser"
        ],
        "excerpt": "Which countries have pursued, possessed, or used biological and chemical weapons recently and historically? Which countries have joined the international treaties to eliminate them?",
        "dateline": "October 5, 2022",
        "subtitle": "Which countries have pursued, possessed, or used biological and chemical weapons recently and historically? Which countries have joined the international treaties to eliminate them?",
        "sidebar-toc": false,
        "featured-image": "Biological-Chemical-Weapons.png"
    },
    "createdAt": "2022-09-06T16:00:28.000Z",
    "published": false,
    "updatedAt": "2023-07-18T20:12:19.000Z",
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    "publishedAt": "2022-10-05T09:50:05.000Z",
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{
    "id": "wp-52633",
    "slug": "about-pip-data-explorer-block",
    "content": {
        "toc": [],
        "body": [
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "All the data included in this explorer is available to download ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://github.com/owid/poverty-data",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "in GitHub",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ", alongside a range of other poverty and inequality metrics.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "About this data",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "type": "heading",
                "level": 2,
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "Where is this data sourced from?",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "type": "heading",
                "level": 3,
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "This data explorer is collated and adapted from the World Bank\u2019s ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://pip.worldbank.org/home",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Poverty and Inequality Platform",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " (PIP).",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "The World Bank\u2019s PIP data is a large collection of household surveys where steps have been taken by the World Bank to harmonize definitions and methods across countries and over time.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "About the comparability of household surveys",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "type": "heading",
                "level": 3,
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "There is no global survey of incomes. To understand how incomes across the world compare, researchers need to rely on available national surveys.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Such surveys are partly designed with cross-country comparability in mind, but because the surveys reflect the circumstances and priorities of individual countries at the time of the survey, there are some important differences.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
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            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Income vs expenditure surveys",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
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                    }
                ],
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            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "One important issue is that the survey data included within the ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://pip.worldbank.org/home",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "PIP",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " database tends to measure people\u2019s income in high-income countries, and people\u2019s consumption expenditure in poorer countries.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "The two concepts are closely related: the income of a household equals their consumption plus any saving, or minus any borrowing or spending out of savings.\u00a0",
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                    }
                ],
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            {
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                    {
                        "text": "One important difference is that, while zero consumption is not a feasible value \u2013 people with zero consumption would starve \u2013 a zero income is a feasible value. This means that, at the bottom end of the distribution, income and consumption can give quite different pictures about a person\u2019s welfare. For instance, a person dissaving in retirement may have a very low, or even zero, income, but have a high level of consumption nevertheless.",
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                ],
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                        "text": "The gap between income and consumption is higher at the top of this distribution too, richer households tend to save more, meaning that the gap between income and consumption is higher at the top of this distribution too. Taken together, one implication is that inequality measured in terms of consumption is generally somewhat lower than the inequality measured in terms of income.",
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                ],
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "In our ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "http://ourworldindata.org/poverty#explore-data-poverty",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Data Explorer",
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                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
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                    {
                        "text": " of this data there is the option to view only income survey data or only consumption survey data, or instead to pool the data available from both types of survey \u2013 which yields greater coverage.",
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                        "children": [
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                                "text": "Other comparability issues",
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                        "text": "There are a number of other ways in which comparability across surveys can be limited. The PIP ",
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                    },
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                        "url": "https://datanalytics.worldbank.org/PIP-Methodology/",
                        "children": [
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                                "text": "Methodology Handbook",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
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                        "text": " provides a good summary of the comparability and data quality issues affecting this data and how it tries to address them.",
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                ],
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            {
                "type": "text",
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                        "text": "In collating this survey data the World Bank takes a range of steps to harmonize it where possible, but comparability issues remain. These affect comparisons both across countries and within individual countries over time.",
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "To help communicate the latter, the World Bank produces a variable that groups surveys within each individual country into more comparable \u2018spells\u2019. Our ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "http://ourworldindata.org/poverty#explore-data-poverty",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Data Explorer",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " provides the option of viewing the data with these breaks in comparability indicated, and these spells are also indicated in our data ",
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                        "url": "https://github.com/owid/poverty-data",
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                                "text": "download",
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                    {
                        "text": ".",
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            {
                "text": [
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                        "text": "Global and regional poverty estimates",
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                        "text": "Along with data for individual countries, the World Bank also provides global and regional poverty estimates which aggregate over the available country data.",
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "Surveys are not conducted annually in every country however \u2013 coverage is generally poorer the further back in time you look, and remains particularly patchy within Sub-Saharan Africa. You can see that visualized in our chart of the ",
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                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/data-deprivation-poverty-surveys-per-decade?time=latest",
                        "children": [
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                                "text": "number of surveys included in the World Bank data",
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                        ],
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                        "text": " by decade.",
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                        "text": "In order to produce global and regional aggregate estimates for a given year, the World Bank takes the surveys falling closest to that year for each country and \u2018lines-up\u2019 the data to the year being estimated by projecting it forwards or backwards.",
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                        "text": "This lining-up is generally done on the assumption that household incomes or expenditure grow in line with the growth rates observed in national accounts data. You can read more about the interpolation methods used by the World Bank in ",
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                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://datanalytics.worldbank.org/PIP-Methodology/lineupestimates.html",
                        "children": [
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                                "text": "Chapter 5",
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                    {
                        "text": " of the Poverty and Inequality Platform Methodology Handbook.",
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "How does the data account for inflation and for differences in the cost of living across countries?",
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                        "text": "To account for inflation and price differences across countries, the World Bank\u2019s data is measured in international dollars. This is a hypothetical currency that results from price adjustments across time and place. It is defined as having the same purchasing power as one US-$ would in the United States in a given base year. One int.-$ buys the same quantity of goods and services no matter where or when it is spent.",
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                        "text": "There are many challenges to making such adjustments and they are far from perfect. Angus Deaton (",
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                        "url": "https://rpds.princeton.edu/sites/g/files/toruqf1956/files/media/deaton_price_indexes_inequality_and_the_measurement_of_world_poverty_aer.pdf",
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                                "text": "Deaton, 2010",
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                        "text": ") provides a good discussion of the difficulties involved in price adjustments and how this relates to global poverty measurement.",
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                        "text": "But in a world where price differences across countries and over time are large it is important to attempt to account for these differences as well as possible, and this is what these adjustments do.",
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                        "text": "In September 2022, the World Bank updated its methodology, and now uses international-$ expressed in 2017 prices \u2013 updated from 2011 prices. This has had little effect on our overall understanding of poverty and inequality around the world. But poverty estimates for particular countries vary somewhat between the old and updated methodology. You can read more about this update in our article ",
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                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/from-1-90-to-2-15-a-day-the-updated-international-poverty-line",
                        "children": [
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                                "children": [
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                                        "text": "From $1.90 to $2.15 a day: the updated International Poverty Line",
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                        "text": ".",
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                "value": [
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                        "text": "To allow for comparisons with the official data now expressed in 2017 international-$ data, the World Bank continues to release its poverty and inequality data expressed in 2011 international-$ as well. We have built a ",
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                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/poverty-explorer-2011-vs-2017-ppp",
                        "children": [
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                                "text": "Data Explorer",
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                        ],
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                        "text": " to allow you to compare these, and we make all figures available in terms of both sets of prices in our ",
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                        "url": "https://github.com/owid/poverty-data",
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                                "text": "data download",
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                        ],
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                        "text": ".",
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "Absolute vs relative poverty lines",
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                        "text": "This dataset provides poverty estimates for a range of absolute and relative poverty lines.",
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                        "text": "An absolute poverty line represents a fixed standard of living; a threshold that is held constant across time. Within the World Bank\u2019s poverty data, absolute poverty lines also aim to represent a standard of living that is fixed across countries (by converting local currencies to international-$). The International Poverty Line of $2.15 per day (in 2017 international-$) is the best known absolute poverty line and is used by the World Bank and the UN to measure extreme poverty around the world.",
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                        "text": "The value of relative poverty lines instead rises and falls as average incomes change within a given country. In most cases they are set at a certain fraction of the median income. Because of this, relative poverty can be considered a metric of inequality \u2013 it measures how spread out the bottom half of the income distribution is.",
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                        "text": "The idea behind measuring poverty in relative terms is that a person\u2019s well-being depends not on their own absolute standard of living but on how that standard compares with some reference group, or whether it enables them to participate in the norms and customs of their society. For instance, joining a friend\u2019s birthday celebration without shame might require more resources in a rich society if the norm is to go for an expensive meal out, or give costly presents.",
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                        "text": "Our dataset includes three commonly-used relative poverty lines: 40%, 50%, and 60% of the median.",
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                        "text": "Such lines are most commonly used in rich countries, and are the main way poverty is measured by the ",
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                        "url": "https://data.oecd.org/inequality/poverty-rate.htm",
                        "children": [
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                                "text": "OECD",
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                        ],
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                        "text": " and the ",
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                    {
                        "url": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Glossary:At-risk-of-poverty_rate",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "European Union",
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                        ],
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                    {
                        "text": ".",
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                        "text": "More recently, relative poverty measures have come to be applied in a global context. The share of people living below 50 per cent of median income is, for instance, one of the UN\u2019s ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://sdg-tracker.org/inequality#10.2",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Sustainable Development Goal indicators",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ". And the World Bank now produces estimates of global poverty using a ",
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                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://datatopics.worldbank.org/world-development-indicators/stories/societal-poverty-a-global-measure-of-relative-poverty.html",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Societal Poverty Line",
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                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " that combines absolute and relative components.",
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                        "text": "When comparing relative poverty rates around the world, however, it is important to keep in mind that \u2013 since ",
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                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/poverty-explorer?tab=map&facet=none&hideControls=false&Metric=Median+income+or+expenditure&Household+survey+data+type=Show+data+from+both+income+and+expenditure+surveys&country=IND~MOZ~BRA~MDG~GHA",
                        "children": [
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                                "text": "average incomes",
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                            }
                        ],
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                    },
                    {
                        "text": " are so far apart \u2013 such relative poverty lines relate to very different standards of living in rich and poor countries.",
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                ],
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            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "Does the data account for non-market income, such as food grown by subsistence farmers?",
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                ],
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                        "text": "Many poor people today, as in the past, rely on subsistence farming rather than a monetary income gained from selling goods or their labor on the market. To take this into account and make a fair comparison of their living standards, the statisticians that produce these figures estimate the monetary value of their home production and add it to their income/expenditure.",
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        "type": "article",
        "title": "About PIP data explorer block",
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        "dateline": "August 31, 2022",
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    "createdAt": "2022-08-31T13:22:44.000Z",
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{
    "id": "wp-52598",
    "slug": "less-democratic",
    "content": {
        "toc": [],
        "body": [
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/democratic-rights",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Many more people than in the past have democratic rights",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ". But now there is growing concern that this progress is currently being partially undone.{ref}See for example:",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "L\u00fchrmann, Anna, and Staffan Lindberg. 2019. A third wave of autocratization is here: what is new about it? Democratization 26(7): 1095-1113.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Haggard, Stephan, and Robert Kaufman. 2021. The Anatomy of Democratic Backsliding. Journal of Democracy 32(4): 27-41.{/ref} Is this true? Has the world become less democratic recently?",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "This article shows that the ",
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                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/democracies-measurement",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "leading approaches",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " to measuring democracy indicate that this is true: the world has become less democratic in recent years.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Democracy is in decline, whether we look at big changes in the number of democracies and the people living in them; at small changes in the extent of democratic rights; or at medium-sized changes in the number of, and people living in, countries that are autocratizing.{ref}I use \u2018autocratizing\u2019 and \u2018becoming less democratic\u2019 as synonyms.{/ref}",
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                ],
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "The extent of this decline is substantial, but it is also uncertain and limited. We can see it clearly across democracy metrics: the world has fallen from all-time democratic highs to a level similar to earlier decades. But the extent of this decline depends on which democracy measure we use. And it is limited in the sense that the world remains much more democratic than it was even half a century ago.",
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Finally, the recent democratic decline is precedented, and past declines were reversed. The world underwent phases of autocratization in the 1930s and again in the 1960s and 1970s. Back then, people fought to turn the tide, and pushed democratic rights to unprecedented heights. We can do the same again.",
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                    }
                ],
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            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "Recently, the number of democracies has declined\u2026\u00a0",
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                    }
                ],
                "type": "heading",
                "level": 2,
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "The simplest way to explore whether the world has recently become less democratic is by looking at how many countries are democracies.",
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                    }
                ],
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            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "In the chart I rely on the ",
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                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C5&q=L%C3%BChrmann%2C+Anna%2C+Marcus+Tannnberg%2C+and+Staffan+Lindberg.+2018.+Regimes+of+the+World+%28RoW%29%3A+Opening+New+Avenues+for+the+Comparative+Study+of+Political+Regimes.+Politics+and+Governance+6%281%29%3A+60-77.%7B%2Fref%7D&btnG=",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Regimes of the World (RoW) classification",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": "{ref}L\u00fchrmann, Anna, Marcus Tannnberg, and Staffan Lindberg. 2018. Regimes of the World (RoW): Opening New Avenues for the Comparative Study of Political Regimes. Politics and Governance 6(1): 60-77{/ref} as a measure for whether a country is a democracy. You can read more about the data ",
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                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/regimes-of-the-world-data",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "in our article on it",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ".",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                    {
                        "spanType": "span-newline"
                    },
                    {
                        "spanType": "span-newline"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": "Using the RoW data, the chart shows that the world has become less democratic in recent years. The number of democracies in the world reached an all-time high in 2016, with 96 electoral democracies. In 2022, their number has fallen to 90 countries.",
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                ],
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                        "text": "RoW is ",
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                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/democracies-measurement",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "just one of the leading approaches",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " of identifying which countries are democracies. But the findings are similar when we look at other approaches to measuring democracy: you can see this in versions of the same chart based on the ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/democracy?facet=none&country=ARG~AUS~BWA~CHN~OWID_WRL&Dataset=Lexical+Index&Metric=%C2%AD%C2%ADPolitical+regime&Sub-metric=Number+of+democracies",
                        "children": [
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                                "text": "Lexical",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
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                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/democracy?facet=none&country=ARG~AUS~BWA~CHN~OWID_WRL&Dataset=Lexical+Index&Metric=%C2%AD%C2%ADPolitical+regime&Sub-metric=People+living+in+democracies",
                        "children": [
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                                "text": "Index",
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                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ", ",
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                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/democracy?facet=none&country=ARG~AUS~BWA~CHN~OWID_WRL&Dataset=Boix-Miller-Rosato&Metric=Democracy&Sub-metric=Number+of+democracies",
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                                "text": "Boix",
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                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
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                        "text": "-",
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                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/democracy?facet=none&country=ARG~AUS~BWA~CHN~OWID_WRL&Dataset=Boix-Miller-Rosato&Metric=Democracy&Sub-metric=People+living+in+democracies",
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                                "text": "Miller-Rosato",
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                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ", ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/democracy?facet=none&country=ARG~AUS~BWA~CHN~OWID_WRL&Dataset=Freedom+House&Metric=%C2%AD%C2%AD%C2%AD%C2%ADFreedom&Sub-metric=Number+of+free+countries+and+territories",
                        "children": [
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                                "text": "Freedom",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
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                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/democracy?facet=none&country=ARG~AUS~BWA~CHN~OWID_WRL&Dataset=Freedom+House&Metric=%C2%AD%C2%AD%C2%AD%C2%ADElectoral+democracy&Sub-metric=%C2%ADNumber+of+democracies",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "House",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ", and the ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/democracy?facet=none&country=ARG~AUS~BWA~CHN~OWID_WRL&Dataset=Economist+Intelligence+Unit&Metric=%C2%AD%C2%AD%C2%AD%C2%AD%C2%ADPolitical+regime&Sub-metric=%C2%AD%C2%AD%C2%ADNumber+of+democracies",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Economist",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/democracy?facet=none&country=ARG~AUS~BWA~CHN~OWID_WRL&Dataset=Economist+Intelligence+Unit&Metric=%C2%AD%C2%AD%C2%AD%C2%AD%C2%ADPolitical+regime&Sub-metric=%C2%AD%C2%AD%C2%ADPeople+living+in+democracies",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Intelligence Unit",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ".{ref}I do not include the regime classifications by ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/democracy?country=ARG~AUS~BWA~CHN&Dataset=Polity&Metric=%C2%AD%C2%AD%C2%ADDemocracy&Sub-metric=Main+index",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Polity",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " and ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/democracy?country=ARG~AUS~BWA~CHN&Dataset=Bertelsmann+Transformation+Index&Metric=%C2%AD%C2%AD%C2%AD%C2%AD%C2%ADDemocratic+features&Sub-metric=Main+index",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Bertelsmann Transformation Index",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " here because Polity currently ends in 2018, and the Bertelsmann Transformation Index does not cover countries they consider to be consolidated democracies.{/ref} You can find all these charts and more in our ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/democracy",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Democracy Data Explorer",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ".",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "The same is true of liberal democracies. Their number has fallen from 44 countries in 2009 to 32 in 2022.",
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                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/countries-democracies-autocracies-row?stackMode=absolute&country=~OWID_WRL",
                "type": "chart",
                "parseErrors": []
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            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "\u2026and fewer people are living in democracies",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "type": "heading",
                "level": 2,
                "parseErrors": []
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "The number of democracies does not tell us ",
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                    },
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "how many people",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-italic"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " enjoy democratic rights. But when we look at this data, the findings are the same.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "The number of people that have democratic rights has recently plummeted: between 2016 and 2022, this number fell from 3.9 billion to 2.3 billion people.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Similarly, the number of people living in liberal democracies fell from 1.2 billion in 2012 to 1 billion a decade later.",
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                ],
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Examples of people losing democratic rights \u2014 according to the RoW data \u2014 are the 1.4 billion people in India,{ref}The reclassification in RoW\u00a0 is the result of recent changes in the V-Dem data, which identify declines in the autonomy of the election management body, the freedom and fairness of elections, and especially the freedom of expression, the media, and civil society. You can read more in V-Dem\u2019s 2021 annual report",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://web.archive.org/web/20220130230849/https://v-dem.net/static/website/files/dr/dr_2021.pdf",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": " Autocratization Turns Vir",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://www.v-dem.net/files/25/DR%202021.pdf",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "al",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ".{/ref} the 84 million people in Turkey, and the 28 million people in Venezuela.{ref}Different approaches to measuring democracy also identify democratic declines in these countries.{/ref}",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Instead of the absolute number of democracies and people living in them, we may be interested in the ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/democracy?facet=none&country=~OWID_WRL&Dataset=Regimes+of+the+World&Metric=%C2%ADPolitical+regime&Sub-metric=Number+and+share+of+democracies",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "share of democratic countries",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " and the ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/democracy?stackMode=relative&facet=none&country=~OWID_WRL&Dataset=Regimes+of+the+World&Metric=%C2%ADPolitical+regime&Sub-metric=People+living+in+democracies",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "share of the world population",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " living in them. The world is also becoming less democratic based on these metrics.",
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                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
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            {
                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/people-living-in-democracies?country=~OWID_WRL",
                "type": "chart",
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            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "In recent years, countries and people have fewer democratic rights",
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                ],
                "type": "heading",
                "level": 2,
                "parseErrors": []
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Looking at the number of democracies and the people living in them tells us about big changes worldwide: when countries become democracies, or stop being liberal or electoral democracies altogether.",
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                ],
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
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                        "text": "But countries and their citizens may experience smaller changes in their democratic rights that fall short of changing the overall regime type. This is because the extent of democratic rights differs ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/democratic-world",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "across democracies and non-democracies, but also within them",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ". Such changes within regimes would not show up in the previous charts.",
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                ],
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Therefore another way of looking at whether the world has recently become less democratic is to look at ",
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                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "how",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-italic"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " democratic countries are, treating democracy as a spectrum.",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                ],
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "We identify how democratic countries are with the electoral democracy index from the ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://www.v-dem.net/vdemds.html",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) project",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ".{ref}Coppedge, Michael, John Gerring, Carl Henrik Knutsen, Staffan I. Lindberg, Jan Teorell, David Altman, Michael Bernhard, Agnes Cornell, M. Steven Fish, Lisa Gastaldi, Haakon Gjerl\u00f8w, Adam Glynn, Ana Good God, Sandra Grahn, Allen Hicken, Katrin Kinzelbach, Joshua Krusell, Kyle L. Marquardt, Kelly McMann, Valeriya Mechkova, Juraj Medzihorsky, Natalia Natsika, Anja Neundorf, Pamela Paxton, Daniel Pemstein, Josefine Pernes, Oskar Ryd\u00e9n, Johannes von R\u00f6mer, Brigitte Seim, Rachel Sigman, Svend-Erik Skaaning, Jeffrey Staton, Aksel Sundstr\u00f6m, Eitan Tzelgov, Yi-ting Wang, Tore Wig, Steven Wilson and Daniel Ziblatt. 2023. ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C5&q=Coppedge%2C+Michael%2C+John+Gerring%2C+Carl+Henrik+Knutsen%2C+Staffan+I.+Lindberg%2C+Jan+Teorell%2C+David+Altman%2C+Michael+Bernhard%2C+Agnes+Cornell%2C+M.+Steven+Fish%2C+Lisa+Gastaldi%2C+Haakon+Gjerl%C3%B8w%2C+Adam+Glynn%2C+Ana+Good+God%2C+Sandra+Grahn%2C+Allen+Hicken%2C+Katrin+Kinzelbach%2C+Joshua+Krusell%2C+Kyle+L.+Marquardt%2C+Kelly+McMann%2C+Valeriya+Mechkova%2C+Juraj+Medzihorsky%2C+Natalia+Natsika%2C+Anja+Neundorf%2C+Pamela+Paxton%2C+Daniel+Pemstein%2C+Josefine+Pernes%2C+Oskar+Ryd%C3%A9n%2C+Johannes+von+R%C3%B6mer%2C+Brigitte+Seim%2C+Rachel+Sigman%2C+Svend-Erik+Skaaning%2C+Jeffrey+Staton%2C+Aksel+Sundstr%C3%B6m%2C+Eitan+Tzelgov%2C+Yi-ting+Wang%2C+Tore+Wig%2C+Steven+Wilson+and+Daniel+Ziblatt.+2023.+V-Dem+%5BCountry-Year%2FCountry-Date%5D+Dataset+v13.+Varieties+of+Democracy+%28V-Dem%29+Project.&btnG=",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "V-Dem [Country-Year/Country-Date] Dataset v13.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project.{/ref} It captures the extent to which political leaders are elected under comprehensive voting rights in free and fair elections, and freedoms of association and expression are guaranteed. You can read more about the data ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/vdem-electoral-democracy-data",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "in our article on it",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ".",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "spanType": "span-newline"
                    },
                    {
                        "spanType": "span-newline"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": "Using V-Dem\u2019s electoral democracy index, the first chart shows that countries, on average, have become less democratic: in 2022, countries received an electoral-democracy score of 0.50 on the scale from 0 to 1. This score is slightly lower than the highest ever average of electoral democracy (0.53) in 2014.",
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                ],
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "The chart shows one of ",
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                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/democracies-measurement",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "several leading approaches",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ". But recent changes look similar if we instead use V-Dem\u2019s other democracy indices, such as its ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/democracy?tab=chart&country=~OWID_WRL&Dataset=Varieties+of+Democracy&Metric=Liberal+democracy&Sub-metric=Main+index",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "liberal democracy",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/democracy?facet=none&country=~OWID_WRL&Dataset=Varieties+of+Democracy&Metric=Liberal+democracy&Sub-metric=%C2%ADMain+index+weighted+by+population",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "index",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ", or the ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/democracy?tab=chart&country=~OWID_WRL&Dataset=Economist+Intelligence+Unit&Metric=%C2%AD%C2%AD%C2%AD%C2%ADFreedom&Sub-metric=Civil+liberties+%28score%29",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Economist Intelligence Unit\u2019s",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/democracy?country=~OWID_WRL&Dataset=Economist+Intelligence+Unit&Metric=%C2%AD%C2%AD%C2%AD%C2%ADFreedom&Sub-metric=%C2%AD%C2%AD%C2%AD%C2%AD%C2%AD%C2%AD%C2%ADMain+index+weighted+by+population",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "data",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ".{ref}I do not include the indices by ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/democracy?country=ARG~AUS~BWA~CHN&Dataset=Polity&Metric=%C2%AD%C2%AD%C2%ADDemocracy&Sub-metric=Main+index",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Polity",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " and the ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/democracy?country=ARG~AUS~BWA~CHN&Dataset=Bertelsmann+Transformation+Index&Metric=%C2%AD%C2%AD%C2%AD%C2%AD%C2%ADDemocratic+features&Sub-metric=Main+index",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Bertelsmann Transformation Index",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " here because Polity currently ends in 2018, and the Bertelsmann Transformation Index does not cover countries they consider to be consolidated democracies.{/ref}",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/electoral-democracy?tab=chart&country=~OWID_WRL",
                "type": "chart",
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "The second chart instead tells us about how many democratic rights ",
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                    },
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "people",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-italic"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " have by weighing a country\u2019s democracy score by its population.{ref}This means that populous countries matter more when calculating the average than countries with small populations.{/ref} Calculated this way, peoples\u2019 democratic rights have decreased as well: countries received a population-weighted average score of 0.40 for electoral democracy in 2021. This is down from an all-time high of 0.5 in 2004.",
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                    }
                ],
                "parseErrors": []
            },
            {
                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/electoral-democracy-popw-vdem?country=~OWID_WRL",
                "type": "chart",
                "parseErrors": []
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            {
                "text": [
                    {
                        "text": "Recently, more countries are autocratizing, and more people live in them",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    }
                ],
                "type": "heading",
                "level": 2,
                "parseErrors": []
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "Global averages in the extent to which countries are democratic and people enjoy democratic rights tell us about smaller changes in democracy that fall short of regime change.",
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
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                        "text": "But they do not tell us ",
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                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "which",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                        "spanType": "span-italic"
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                    {
                        "text": " countries are becoming more or less democratic.",
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                ],
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            {
                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "One more way of studying global changes in democracy is therefore identifying how the number of countries that are autocratizing or democratizing is changing.",
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                ],
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "We identify which countries are becoming less or more democratic with data from the ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://www.v-dem.net/ertds.html",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Episodes of Regime Transformation (ERT)-project",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ".{ref}Edgell, Amanda, Seraphine Maerz, Laura Maxwell, Richard Morgan, Juraj Medzihorsky, Matthew Wilson, Vanessa Boese, Sebastian Hellmeier, Jean Lachapelle, Patrik Lindenfors, Anna L\u00fchrmann, and Staffan Lindberg. 2022. ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C5&q=dgell%2C+Amanda%2C+Seraphine+Maerz%2C+Laura+Maxwell%2C+Richard+Morgan%2C+Juraj+Medzihorsky%2C+Matthew+Wilson%2C+Vanessa+Boese%2C+Sebastian+Hellmeier%2C+Jean+Lachapelle%2C+Patrik+Lindenfors%2C+Anna+L%C3%BChrmann%2C+and+Staffan+Lindberg.+2022.+Episodes+of+Regime+Transformation+Dataset+%28v13%29.+Varieties+of+Democracy+%28V-Dem%29+Project.&btnG=",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Episodes of Regime Transformation Dataset (v13)",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ". Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project.{/ref} We use their data to identify which countries are autocratizing, democratizing, and which countries are not clearly moving in either direction.{ref}Based on ERT, a country is autocratizing from when V-Dem\u2019s electoral democracy index decreases by 0.01, until the score increases or remains unchanged for four years, ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "and",
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                    {
                        "text": " the total decrease between start and end amounts to a decrease of at least 0.10. Democratizing countries are classified analogously. We exclude Ukraine from 2002 to 2004 and El Salvador from 2015 and 2017 because for them democratizing and autocratizing episodes happen to overlap.{/ref} ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/political-regime-ert",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "This",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " chart shows how each country has been classified for the end of each year since 1900.",
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                ],
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "What does it mean for a country to be autocratizing or democratizing? ERT seeks to strike a balance between large and small changes in how democratic countries are. {ref}Seraphine Maerz, Amanda Edgell, Matthew Wilson, Sebastian Hellmeier, Staffan\u00a0 Lindberg. 2021. A Framework for Understanding Regime Transformation: Introducing the ERT Dataset. Varieties of Democracy Institute: Working Paper No. 113.\u00a0 University of Gothenburg.{/ref} It captures smaller changes in democracy that fall short of regime change. At the same time, it only codes a country as autocratizing when there is a substantial decrease in its democracy score. This is because very small decreases may be fleeting and not indicate broader shifts towards less democracy, or overstate changes altogether because the measurement is uncertain.{ref}This means, however, that some countries are not classified as autocratizing even though their score visibly declines. One example is the ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/democracy?tab=chart&country=~USA&Dataset=Varieties+of+Democracy&Metric=Electoral+democracy&Sub-metric=Main+index",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "United States",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " in the 2010s, whose decline between 2015 and 2020 fell just barely short of the ERT threshold.{/ref} ERT also allows for temporary stagnation because autocratization may not happen abruptly in one year, but slowly over several years.{ref}Bermeo, Nancy. 2016. ",
                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C5&q=Bermeo%2C+Nancy.+2016.+On+democratic+backsliding.+Journal+of+Democracy+27%281%29%3A+5-19.&btnG=",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "On democratic backsliding",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": ". Journal of Democracy 27(1): 5-19.{/ref}",
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                    }
                ],
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                "type": "text",
                "value": [
                    {
                        "text": "As shown in the chart, the number of countries that are autocratizing has been increasing: in 2022, 40 countries were autocratizing. This is an all-time high. For a long time, the number of autocratizing countries was offset by a larger number of democratizing countries. But since 2012, the number of countries that are becoming less democratic has been higher.",
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                ],
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            {
                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/countries-democratizing-autocratizing-countries-ert?stackMode=absolute&country=~OWID_WRL",
                "type": "chart",
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                    {
                        "text": "The number of people living in autocratizing countries is increasing as well: in 2022, 3.2 billion people lived in countries that were becoming less democratic. This is also an all-time high. The number has been trending upward since the late 1980s, with a large jump in 2000 when India is reclassified as becoming less democratic.{ref}This move away from democratic rights looks very similar if instead of looking at absolute numbers, we look at the ",
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                                "text": "share of autocratizing countries",
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                        "text": " or the ",
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                                "text": "world population living in them",
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                        "text": ".{/ref}",
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                        "text": "Other examples of people living in autocratizing countries according to the ERT data are the 214 million people in Brazil, the 274 million people in Indonesia, and the 38 million people in Poland.{ref}Different approaches to measuring democracy also identify democratic declines in these countries.{/ref}",
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                        "text": "The democratic decline has been substantial, but more uncertain and limited",
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                        "text": "The data shown here indicate that the world has recently become less democratic. But ",
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                        "text": " less democratic has the world become?",
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                        "text": "Based on the data here, the democratic decline has been substantial. We can readily identify it in the different charts above. We can do so even though the charts put the recent trends into the historical context of the last two centuries. The world has fallen from all-time democratic highs to now \u2014 depending on the specific metrics \u2014 look more like the 2000s, the 1990s, or even the late 1980s.",
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                        "text": "But the extent of the democratic decline is also more uncertain; its precise degree depends on the approach of measuring democracy.",
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                        "text": "The clearest example of this is India. Since India is home to 1.4 billion people, its classification has a big impact on some global trends. RoW and ERT classify India as an electoral autocracy and as substantially autocratizing in recent years. The ",
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                        "text": " data, however, disagrees, and continues to classify the country as a democracy. This means that ",
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                                "text": "using their data",
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                        "text": ", the number of people in the world living in democracies has not declined, but stagnated.",
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                        "text": "At the same time, we should not overstate the differences between the approaches either. All other approaches{ref}This includes the ",
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                        "text": ", ",
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                        "text": ", the Bertelsmann ",
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                                "text": "Index",
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                        "text": ", and the ",
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                        "text": ".{/ref} still identify a democratic decline in India. The approaches also tend to agree that metrics which look at people instead of countries see larger declines \u2014 because countries with large populations have tended to lose more democratic rights. Even the Boix-Miller-Rosato data sees an increase in the number of people living in ",
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                        "text": "democracies. The choice of approach therefore does not matter so much that it would question all characteristics of the recent global democratic decline.{ref}The same goes for uncertainty in the measurement of democracy itself.{/ref}",
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                        "text": "And while the democratic decline has been substantial, it so far has been limited. The world is still much closer to all-time democratic highs than to historical levels: this clearly is the case for the 19th and early 20th centuries, when democratic rights and democracies were nearly absent. But it also holds for large parts of the later 20th century, when democratic rights were ",
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                        "text": "The world has become less democratic before \u2014 and turned the tide",
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                        "text": "A decline in democratic rights might seem like an unprecedented step backwards. But it is not. It has happened before: the world underwent prolonged phases of autocratization in the 1930s and again in the 1960s and 1970s.",
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                        "text": "In the 1930s, a similar number of democracies as recently broke down \u2014 though back then that meant more than half of the world\u2019s previously democratic countries. And the decline in the global democratic average was much larger than it has been recently.",
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                        "text": "In the 1960s and 1970s, many countries were becoming less democratic, with as many as 20 countries autocratizing at any given time. And several hundred million people lost democratic rights when India\u2019s democracy eroded.",
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                        "text": "But these declines in democracy were temporary. People in India and around the world gained more democratic rights than ever before.",
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                        "text": "People turned previous autocratic tides by advocating relentlessly for governing themselves democratically. We have done it before, and can do it again.",
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                        "text": "Keep reading on ",
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                                "text": "Our World in Data",
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                        "children": [
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                                "text": "Acknowledgements",
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                        "text": "I thank Hannah Ritchie and Max Roser for their very helpful comments and ideas about how to improve this article.",
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                        "text": "200 years ago, everyone lacked democratic rights. Now, ",
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                        "text": "To understand the extent of people\u2019s political rights, we shouldn\u2019t only look at whether a country is classified as a democracy or not. We should also look at smaller differences in ",
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                        "text": "How democratic have countries been across the world? And how big are the differences between them?",
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                        "text": "To answer these questions, we need information on countries\u2019 political systems over recent centuries.",
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                        "text": "Measuring how democratic countries are comes with many challenges. People do not always agree on what characteristics define a democracy. Its characteristics \u2014 such as whether an election was free and fair \u2014 are difficult to assess. The assessments of experts are to some degree subjective and they may disagree; either about a specific characteristic, or how several characteristics can be reduced into a single measure of democracy.",
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                        "text": "\u200b\u200bBecause of these difficulties, classifying political systems is unavoidably controversial. I have written more about how researchers deal with the challenges of measuring democracy ",
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                        "text": "The source we show here is the electoral democracy index from the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) project{ref}Coppedge, Michael, John Gerring, Carl Henrik Knutsen, Staffan I. Lindberg, Jan Teorell, David Altman, Michael Bernhard, Agnes Cornell, M. Steven Fish, Lisa Gastaldi, Haakon Gjerl\u00f8w, Adam Glynn, Ana Good God, Sandra Grahn, Allen Hicken, Katrin Kinzelbach, Joshua Krusell, Kyle L. Marquardt, Kelly McMann, Valeriya Mechkova, Juraj Medzihorsky, Natalia Natsika, Anja Neundorf, Pamela Paxton, Daniel Pemstein, Josefine Pernes, Oskar Ryd\u00e9n, Johannes von R\u00f6mer, Brigitte Seim, Rachel Sigman, Svend-Erik Skaaning, Jeffrey Staton, Aksel Sundstr\u00f6m, Eitan Tzelgov, Yi-ting Wang, Tore Wig, Steven Wilson and Daniel Ziblatt. 2023. ",
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                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C5&q=Coppedge%2C+Michael%2C+John+Gerring%2C+Carl+Henrik+Knutsen%2C+Staffan+I.+Lindberg%2C+Jan+Teorell%2C+David+Altman%2C+Michael+Bernhard%2C+Agnes+Cornell%2C+M.+Steven+Fish%2C+Lisa+Gastaldi%2C+Haakon+Gjerl%C3%B8w%2C+Adam+Glynn%2C+Ana+Good+God%2C+Sandra+Grahn%2C+Allen+Hicken%2C+Katrin+Kinzelbach%2C+Joshua+Krusell%2C+Kyle+L.+Marquardt%2C+Kelly+McMann%2C+Valeriya+Mechkova%2C+Juraj+Medzihorsky%2C+Natalia+Natsika%2C+Anja+Neundorf%2C+Pamela+Paxton%2C+Daniel+Pemstein%2C+Josefine+Pernes%2C+Oskar+Ryd%C3%A9n%2C+Johannes+von+R%C3%B6mer%2C+Brigitte+Seim%2C+Rachel+Sigman%2C+Svend-Erik+Skaaning%2C+Jeffrey+Staton%2C+Aksel+Sundstr%C3%B6m%2C+Eitan+Tzelgov%2C+Yi-ting+Wang%2C+Tore+Wig%2C+Steven+Wilson+and+Daniel+Ziblatt.+2023.+V-Dem+%5BCountry-Year%2FCountry-Date%5D+Dataset+v13.+Varieties+of+Democracy+%28V-Dem%29+Project.&btnG=",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "V-Dem [Country-Year/Country-Date] Dataset v13.",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
                        "spanType": "span-link"
                    },
                    {
                        "text": " Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project.{/ref}. In our ",
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                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/democracy",
                        "children": [
                            {
                                "text": "Democracy Data Explorer",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            }
                        ],
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                    },
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                        "text": ", however, we show the data for several leading approaches, so that you can compare how different sources score democracy across the world.",
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                        "text": "The electoral democracy index from V-Dem tries to capture the extent to which ",
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                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/elected-political-leaders",
                        "children": [
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                                "text": "political leaders are elected",
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                    {
                        "text": " under ",
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                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/suffrage",
                        "children": [
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                                "text": "comprehensive voting rights",
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                        "text": " in ",
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                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/free-and-fair-elections",
                        "children": [
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                                "text": "free and fair elections",
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                    {
                        "text": ", and ",
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                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/freedom-of-association",
                        "children": [
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                                "text": "freedoms of association",
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                        "text": " and ",
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                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/freedom-of-expression",
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                                "text": "expression",
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                        "text": " are guaranteed.{ref}While we use V-Dem\u2019s data, we expand the years and countries covered. You can find more information in ",
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                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/vdem-electoral-democracy-data",
                        "children": [
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                                "text": "this article",
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                        "text": ".{/ref}",
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                        "text": "The interactive map shows how democratic each country is at the end of each year, going back in time as far as 1789.{ref}You can download the complete dataset, including\u00a0 supplementary indicators, from ",
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                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://github.com/owid/notebooks/tree/main/BastianHerre/democracy",
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                                "text": "GitHub",
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                        "text": ".{/ref} To explore changes over time, you can drag the time-slider below the map.\u00a0",
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                ],
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                        "text": "We see that countries differ in how democratic they are, with some countries close to the index\u2019s maximum of 1, and others close to its minimum score of 0. Most countries are somewhere in the middle.",
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                ],
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                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/electoral-democracy",
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "The world was highly undemocratic in the 18th and 19th centuries",
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                        "text": "The world did not always look like it does today. It has become much more democratic over time.",
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                        "text": "A very clear way of showing this is to look at the distribution of democracy scores at different stages in history.\u00a0",
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                        "text": "Here we do this in the form of a bar chart, where electoral democracy is again measured on a scale from 0 to 1. The shortest bars here are the least democratic countries, the highest bars indicate the most democratic.\u00a0",
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                        "text": "This means that the area covered by ",
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                                "text": "all",
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                        "text": " of the bars gives us a proxy for the extent of democracy globally.",
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                        "text": "In the data\u2019s earliest available year, 1789, the world was very undemocratic: most of the world\u2019s political leaders were unelected, few people had voting rights, elections were neither free nor fair, and citizens were not able to assemble and speak freely.",
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                        "text": "Only a few countries, such as France, the United Kingdom, and the United States, had a few democratic characteristics. The United States was the most democratic country according to V-Dem\u2019s assessment, but still only received a score of 0.35.",
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                        "text": "In this sense, the world was more equal than it is today: democratic rights were very limited ",
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                        "children": [
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                                "text": "everywhere",
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                        "text": ".",
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                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/distribution-electoral-democracy-vdem?time=1789",
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                        "children": [
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                                "text": "Related charts",
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                        "text": ":",
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                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/country-ranking-electoral-democracy-popw-vdem",
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                "title": "Distribution of democracy weighted by population using V-Dem data",
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "The world was mostly undemocratic in the early 20th century",
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                        "text": "By 1900, political institutions had become more diverse, but remained highly undemocratic in most countries.\u00a0",
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                        "text": "A fair number of countries in Europe and the Americas now had some democratic features: citizens especially had become freer to associate and express their opinions. A couple of countries, such as Australia, France, and Switzerland, had even developed fairly democratic features, with men now having the right to vote and almost all political leaders being chosen in elections.",
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                        "text": "The most democratic country, with a score of 0.8, was New Zealand.",
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                        "text": "But the many other countries, most under colonial rule, had political systems that granted few democratic rights to their citizens: the colonial powers installed unelected leaders, gave no or only few citizens the right to vote, and restricted citizens\u2019 ability to assemble and express their opinions.",
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                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/distribution-electoral-democracy-vdem?time=1900",
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "Democratic rights became highly unequal across the world in the first half of the 20th century",
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                        "text": "In the first half of the 20th century, some countries continued to become more democratic, while progress in most others stalled.\u00a0",
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                        "text": "More democratic political institutions in Europe after the First World War were almost completely undone in the two decades that followed, but were then reestablished after the second World War. Some non-European countries such as Canada and the United States also extended the democratic rights of their citizens.\u00a0",
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                        "text": "In the rest of the world, however, countries broadened some political rights while remaining overwhelmingly undemocratic. The colonial powers at times expanded voting rights and loosened restrictions on freedoms of expression and association, but local political leaders remained unelected, or the elections choosing them were marred by violence, intimidation, or fraud.",
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                        "text": "This meant that democratic rights were distributed highly unequally across the world\u2019s inhabitants, shown by the chart\u2019s steep slope.",
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                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/distribution-electoral-democracy-vdem?time=1950",
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "Democracy spread across the world in the second half of the 20th century",
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                        "text": "Many countries then became much more democratic in the second half of the 20th century.",
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                        "text": "In the 1990s especially, democratic institutions expanded across the world. Countries in South America shed their highly autocratic political systems that had spread in the 1970s. According to V-Dem, a considerable number of countries in Africa became fairly democratic (such as Ghana and South Africa) in the decades after gaining independence. Civil society organizations and political parties could operate more freely, and elections became freer and fairer.",
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                        "text": "And while many countries in Asia and the Middle East remained decidedly undemocratic, some countries in these regions expanded democratic rights, such as India, Indonesia, Turkey, and South Korea.\u00a0",
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                        "text": "Democratic rights therefore became much more evenly distributed across the world.",
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "Democracy\u2019s spread has slowed in the 21st century",
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                        "text": "The spread of democracy has slowed in the 21st century compared to previous decades. While some countries became more democratic according to V-Dem, such as Tunisia and Peru, many stagnated or became less democratic \u2014 some, such as Brazil, India, Indonesia, Mexico, and Poland considerably so.",
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                        "text": "Despite these declines in democracy, almost all countries remain much more democratic than they were at the beginning of the 20th century.\u00a0",
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                        "text": "And they remain vastly more democratic than most countries during the 18th and 19th centuries: a score of 0.11 made Denmark one of the most democratic countries in 1789, while the same score made Mexico an average country in 1900, and Yemen one of the least democratic countries in the world in 2021.",
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "Some countries are much more democratic than others",
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                        "text": "While the world has become much more democratic over the last 200 years, there are still large differences between countries.",
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                        "text": "As the previous chart shows, some countries \u2014 mostly located in Europe and the Americas \u2014 are highly democratic: they have elected political leaders, elections are free and fair, and most citizens have the right to vote and can associate and express their opinions freely. The most democratic countries were Denmark and Sweden, with scores of 0.92 and 0.90.",
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                        "text": "Other countries, concentrated in Asia, are highly undemocratic according to V-Dem. This includes countries such as China, North Korea, the United Arab Emirates, and the least democratic country in the world, Saudi Arabia, with a score of just 0.02. In these countries, citizens do not have the right to choose their political leaders in popular elections.",
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                        "text": "Most countries, often situated in Africa and East and Southeast Asia, fall somewhere in the middle. In these countries, political leaders usually are elected and most citizens have the right to vote, but their rights to associate and express their opinions are limited, and elections are not entirely free and fair.",
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                        "text": "As mentioned, V-Dem is only one of the leading approaches to measure democracy. And its electoral democracy index is only one main measure it provides alongside other, more comprehensive indices of democracy.",
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                        "text": "Yet, using another approach or V-Dem index to measure democracy shows a similar development from a highly undemocratic world in the 18th and 19th century, to high democratic inequality in the earlier 20th century, and a much more democratic, and more equally democratic, world in recent decades.",
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                        "text": "You can see so for yourself by exploring the four charts below, which use the Polity project\u2019s democracy index and V-Dem\u2019s liberal democracy index.",
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                        "text": "Taken together, the democratic political systems of many countries show that a world where people have much more say in how they are governed is possible.\u00a0",
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                        "text": "But the fact that so many countries are still highly undemocratic means that the fight for democratic political rights goes on.",
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            {
                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/democracy-polity",
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        "type": "article",
        "title": "Countries around the world have become much more democratic, but there are large differences between them",
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        "dateline": "July 19, 2022",
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    "createdAt": "2022-10-05T19:25:44.000Z",
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    "updatedAt": "2023-07-20T13:09:40.000Z",
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