posts: 52116
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| 52116 | Five key findings from the 2022 UN Population Prospects | world-population-update-2022 | post | publish | <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>How many people are there in the world? How many die each year, and how many babies are born? </p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>These are key questions that we need to understand the world around us. The global population dataset is one of our most important at <em>Our World in Data</em>: it underpins nearly every topic we cover.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>The UN updates its <a href="https://population.un.org/wpp/">World Population Prospects</a> every two years. Its latest release was due in 2021 but was delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. But, on World Population Day, the long-awaited dataset was released today.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>In this article, we highlight some key findings of the twenty-seventh publication of the ‘World Population Prospects.’ </p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>With early access to this new UN data, we have also published a new <a href="http://ourworldindata.org/explorers/population-and-demography"><strong>Population and Demography Data Explorer</strong></a>. You can explore this full dataset in detail for any country worldwide.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:heading {"level":3} --> <h3>The world population will pass 8 billion at the end of 2022</h3> <!-- /wp:heading --> <!-- wp:columns --> <div class="wp-block-columns"><!-- wp:column --> <div class="wp-block-column"><!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Since 1975 the world has been adding another billion people <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-growth#how-long-did-it-take-for-the-world-population-to-increase-by-one-billion">every 12 years</a>. </p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>It passed its last milestone of 7 billion in 2011. And, by the end of 2022, another one will pass: <strong>there will be 8 billion people worldwide.</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>While this absolute growth is similar to previous decades, the growth <em>rate</em> continues to fall. Since 2019, the global population growth rate has fallen below 1%. </p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>That’s less than half its peak growth rate – of 2.3% – in the 1960s.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>As global fertility rates continue to fall (see below), this rate will continue to fall.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --></div> <!-- /wp:column --> <!-- wp:column --> <div class="wp-block-column"><!-- wp:html --> <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/population-and-demography?time=earliest..2099&facet=none&Metric=Population+growth+rate&Sex=Both+sexes&Age+group=Total&Projection+Scenario=None&country=~OWID_WRL&hideControls=true" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> <!-- /wp:html --></div> <!-- /wp:column --></div> <!-- /wp:columns --> <!-- wp:heading {"level":3} --> <h3>The UN estimates around 15 million excess deaths in 2020 and 2021 from the COVID-19 pandemic</h3> <!-- /wp:heading --> <!-- wp:columns --> <div class="wp-block-columns"><!-- wp:column --> <div class="wp-block-column"><!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>The Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has significantly impacted global population and migration trends. </p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>We know that the confirmed death toll from COVID-19 will likely significantly underestimate the true number of deaths because of limited testing. One way to better estimate the pandemic's total mortality impact is to look at <em>excess </em>mortality data. We can look at the total number of deaths and compare this to the number we expect to occur in a non-pandemic year.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong>In its latest population dataset, the UN estimates that in 2020, there were approximately 5 million excess deaths. In 2021, this figure was 10 million.</strong> </p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>This estimate of 15 million excess deaths over 2020 and 2021 aligns with estimates from other organizations. The Economist put its central estimate of excess deaths at 17.6 million. The World Health Organization, a UN organization, <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-deaths-cumulative-who?country=~OWID_WRL">estimated</a> 14.9 million excess deaths.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>These death figures are highly uncertain. But what’s clear is that the number of confirmed deaths – just 5.4 million by the end of 2021 – captures just a fraction of the true impact of the pandemic.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --></div> <!-- /wp:column --> <!-- wp:column --> <div class="wp-block-column"><!-- wp:html --> <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/population-and-demography?time=earliest..latest&facet=none&Metric=Deaths&Sex=Both+sexes&Age+group=Total&Projection+Scenario=None&country=~OWID_WRL&hideControls=true" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> <!-- /wp:html --></div> <!-- /wp:column --></div> <!-- /wp:columns --> <!-- wp:heading {"level":3} --> <h3>The global population is projected to peak at around 10.4 billion in 2086</h3> <!-- /wp:heading --> <!-- wp:columns --> <div class="wp-block-columns"><!-- wp:column --> <div class="wp-block-column"><!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>The world population has increased rapidly over the last century. When will it come to an end?</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Previous versions of the UN World Population Prospects showed a significant slowdown in population growth, with <em>very slow</em> growth – almost reaching a plateau – by the end of the century. Its previous release projected that the world population would be around 10.88 billion in 2100 and would not yet have peaked.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong>In this new release, the UN projects that the global population will peak before the end of the century – in 2086, at just over 10.4 billion people.</strong>{ref}This is based on its medium-fertility projection scenario. Its ‘low’ projection scenario peaks much earlier – in 2054 – at 8.9 billion people. Its ‘high’ projection scenario does not peak by the end of the century.{/ref}</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>There are several reasons for this earlier and lower peak. One is that the UN expects fertility rates to fall more quickly in low-income countries compared to previous revisions. It also expects less of a ‘rebound’ in fertility rates across high-income countries in the second half of the century.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --></div> <!-- /wp:column --> <!-- wp:column --> <div class="wp-block-column"><!-- wp:html --> <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/population-and-demography?time=earliest..latest&facet=none&Metric=Population&Sex=Both+sexes&Age+group=Total&Projection+Scenario=Medium&country=~OWID_WRL&hideControls=true" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> <!-- /wp:html --></div> <!-- /wp:column --></div> <!-- /wp:columns --> <!-- wp:heading {"level":3} --> <h3>The global fertility rate has continued to decline to 2.3 births per woman</h3> <!-- /wp:heading --> <!-- wp:columns --> <div class="wp-block-columns"><!-- wp:column --> <div class="wp-block-column"><!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>A key determinant of the global population rate is women's average number of children over their lifetime – the <a href="http://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate">fertility rate</a>.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Fertility rates have fallen rapidly across the world in recent decades. In 1950, the average woman gave birth around 5 times. Since then, fertility rates have more than halved. In 2021, this global figure was 2.3 births per woman.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>If you switch to the map tab in the interactive chart, you see that most people now live in countries where fertility rates are at – or below – the ‘replacement level.’ This is the level at which populations would stabilize or shrink over the long term. The UN reports that two-thirds of people live in countries with a fertility rate below 2.1 births per woman. In some high-income countries such as South Korea, Japan, Spain, or Italy, it is as low as 1.3 births per woman.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --></div> <!-- /wp:column --> <!-- wp:column --> <div class="wp-block-column"><!-- wp:html --> <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/population-and-demography?facet=none&Metric=Fertility+rate&Sex=Both+sexes&Age+group=Total&Projection+Scenario=Medium&country=High-income+countries~OWID_WRL&hideControls=true" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> <!-- /wp:html --></div> <!-- /wp:column --></div> <!-- /wp:columns --> <!-- wp:heading {"level":3} --> <h3>Next year India is expected to take over from China as the world’s most populous country</h3> <!-- /wp:heading --> <!-- wp:columns --> <div class="wp-block-columns"><!-- wp:column --> <div class="wp-block-column"><!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>China has been the world’s most populous country for decades. It is now home to more than 1.4 billion people. However, its population growth rate has fallen significantly following a rapid drop in <a href="https://tufte.owid.cloud/admin/explorers/preview/demography?time=earliest..2099&facet=none&Metric=Fertility+rate&Sex=Both+sexes&Age+group=Total&Projection+Scenario=Medium&country=CHN~IND">its fertility rate</a> over the 1970s and 80s.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>The fertility rate in India has also fallen substantially in recent decades – from 5.7 births per woman in 1950 to just 2 births per woman today. However, the rate of this decline has been slower.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Because of this, India will very soon overtake China as the most populous country in the world. The UN expects this to happen in 2023.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --></div> <!-- /wp:column --> <!-- wp:column --> <div class="wp-block-column"><!-- wp:html --> <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/population-and-demography?time=earliest..latest&facet=none&Metric=Population&Sex=Both+sexes&Age+group=Total&Projection+Scenario=Medium&country=CHN~IND&hideControls=true" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> <!-- /wp:html --></div> <!-- /wp:column --></div> <!-- /wp:columns --> <!-- wp:separator --> <hr class="wp-block-separator"/> <!-- /wp:separator --> <!-- wp:heading {"level":4} --> <h4>Explore this data for every country in the world in our new Population and Demography Data Explorer</h4> <!-- /wp:heading --> <!-- wp:owid/prominent-link {"title":"","linkUrl":"https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/population-and-demography","className":"is-style-thin"} /--> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> | {
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"title": "Five key findings from the 2022 UN Population Prospects",
"authors": [
"Hannah Ritchie",
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"Lucas Rod\u00e9s-Guirao",
"Marcel Gerber"
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"excerpt": "Explore the key highlights from the UN\u2019s latest release of its world population estimates.",
"dateline": "July 11, 2022",
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2022-07-11 16:10:00 | 2024-03-06 13:41:30 | 1wCZsgwS9Tlh8ySeanWnDgoX-fVftlVgzTBW8N8FSQE8 | [
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Explore the key highlights from the UN’s latest release of its world population estimates. | 2022-07-07 16:26:08 | 2023-02-20 12:43:09 | https://ourworldindata.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/Population-2022.png | {} |
How many people are there in the world? How many die each year, and how many babies are born? These are key questions that we need to understand the world around us. The global population dataset is one of our most important at _Our World in Data_: it underpins nearly every topic we cover. The UN updates its [World Population Prospects](https://population.un.org/wpp/) every two years. Its latest release was due in 2021 but was delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. But, on World Population Day, the long-awaited dataset was released today. In this article, we highlight some key findings of the twenty-seventh publication of the ‘World Population Prospects.’ With early access to this new UN data, we have also published a new [**Population and Demography Data Explorer**](http://ourworldindata.org/explorers/population-and-demography). You can explore this full dataset in detail for any country worldwide. ## The world population will pass 8 billion at the end of 2022 Since 1975 the world has been adding another billion people [every 12 years](https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-growth#how-long-did-it-take-for-the-world-population-to-increase-by-one-billion). It passed its last milestone of 7 billion in 2011. And, by the end of 2022, another one will pass: **there will be 8 billion people worldwide.** While this absolute growth is similar to previous decades, the growth _rate_ continues to fall. Since 2019, the global population growth rate has fallen below 1%. That’s less than half its peak growth rate – of 2.3% – in the 1960s. As global fertility rates continue to fall (see below), this rate will continue to fall. <Chart url="https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/population-and-demography?time=earliest..2099&facet=none&Metric=Population+growth+rate&Sex=Both+sexes&Age+group=Total&Projection+Scenario=None&country=~OWID_WRL&hideControls=true"/> ## The UN estimates around 15 million excess deaths in 2020 and 2021 from the COVID-19 pandemic The Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has significantly impacted global population and migration trends. We know that the confirmed death toll from COVID-19 will likely significantly underestimate the true number of deaths because of limited testing. One way to better estimate the pandemic's total mortality impact is to look at _excess _mortality data. We can look at the total number of deaths and compare this to the number we expect to occur in a non-pandemic year. **In its latest population dataset, the UN estimates that in 2020, there were approximately 5 million excess deaths. In 2021, this figure was 10 million.** This estimate of 15 million excess deaths over 2020 and 2021 aligns with estimates from other organizations. The Economist put its central estimate of excess deaths at 17.6 million. The World Health Organization, a UN organization, [estimated](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-deaths-cumulative-who?country=~OWID_WRL) 14.9 million excess deaths. These death figures are highly uncertain. But what’s clear is that the number of confirmed deaths – just 5.4 million by the end of 2021 – captures just a fraction of the true impact of the pandemic. <Chart url="https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/population-and-demography?time=earliest..latest&facet=none&Metric=Deaths&Sex=Both+sexes&Age+group=Total&Projection+Scenario=None&country=~OWID_WRL&hideControls=true"/> ## The global population is projected to peak at around 10.4 billion in 2086 The world population has increased rapidly over the last century. When will it come to an end? Previous versions of the UN World Population Prospects showed a significant slowdown in population growth, with _very slow_ growth – almost reaching a plateau – by the end of the century. Its previous release projected that the world population would be around 10.88 billion in 2100 and would not yet have peaked. **In this new release, the UN projects that the global population will peak before the end of the century – in 2086, at just over 10.4 billion people.**{ref}This is based on its medium-fertility projection scenario. Its ‘low’ projection scenario peaks much earlier – in 2054 – at 8.9 billion people. Its ‘high’ projection scenario does not peak by the end of the century.{/ref} There are several reasons for this earlier and lower peak. One is that the UN expects fertility rates to fall more quickly in low-income countries compared to previous revisions. It also expects less of a ‘rebound’ in fertility rates across high-income countries in the second half of the century. <Chart url="https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/population-and-demography?time=earliest..latest&facet=none&Metric=Population&Sex=Both+sexes&Age+group=Total&Projection+Scenario=Medium&country=~OWID_WRL&hideControls=true"/> ## The global fertility rate has continued to decline to 2.3 births per woman A key determinant of the global population rate is women's average number of children over their lifetime – the [fertility rate](http://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate). Fertility rates have fallen rapidly across the world in recent decades. In 1950, the average woman gave birth around 5 times. Since then, fertility rates have more than halved. In 2021, this global figure was 2.3 births per woman. If you switch to the map tab in the interactive chart, you see that most people now live in countries where fertility rates are at – or below – the ‘replacement level.’ This is the level at which populations would stabilize or shrink over the long term. The UN reports that two-thirds of people live in countries with a fertility rate below 2.1 births per woman. In some high-income countries such as South Korea, Japan, Spain, or Italy, it is as low as 1.3 births per woman. <Chart url="https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/population-and-demography?facet=none&Metric=Fertility+rate&Sex=Both+sexes&Age+group=Total&Projection+Scenario=Medium&country=High-income+countries~OWID_WRL&hideControls=true"/> ## Next year India is expected to take over from China as the world’s most populous country China has been the world’s most populous country for decades. It is now home to more than 1.4 billion people. However, its population growth rate has fallen significantly following a rapid drop in [its fertility rate](https://tufte.owid.cloud/admin/explorers/preview/demography?time=earliest..2099&facet=none&Metric=Fertility+rate&Sex=Both+sexes&Age+group=Total&Projection+Scenario=Medium&country=CHN~IND) over the 1970s and 80s. The fertility rate in India has also fallen substantially in recent decades – from 5.7 births per woman in 1950 to just 2 births per woman today. However, the rate of this decline has been slower. Because of this, India will very soon overtake China as the most populous country in the world. The UN expects this to happen in 2023. <Chart url="https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/population-and-demography?time=earliest..latest&facet=none&Metric=Population&Sex=Both+sexes&Age+group=Total&Projection+Scenario=Medium&country=CHN~IND&hideControls=true"/> ### Explore this data for every country in the world in our new Population and Demography Data Explorer ### https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/population-and-demography | {
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"rendered": "\n<p>How many people are there in the world? How many die each year, and how many babies are born? </p>\n\n\n\n<p>These are key questions that we need to understand the world around us. The global population dataset is one of our most important at <em>Our World in Data</em>: it underpins nearly every topic we cover.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>The UN updates its <a href=\"https://population.un.org/wpp/\">World Population Prospects</a> every two years. Its latest release was due in 2021 but was delayed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. But, on World Population Day, the long-awaited dataset was released today.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>In this article, we highlight some key findings of the twenty-seventh publication of the \u2018World Population Prospects.\u2019 </p>\n\n\n\n<p>With early access to this new UN data, we have also published a new <a href=\"http://ourworldindata.org/explorers/population-and-demography\"><strong>Population and Demography Data Explorer</strong></a>. You can explore this full dataset in detail for any country worldwide.</p>\n\n\n\n<h3>The world population will pass 8 billion at the end of 2022</h3>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\">\n<p>Since 1975 the world has been adding another billion people <a href=\"https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-growth#how-long-did-it-take-for-the-world-population-to-increase-by-one-billion\">every 12 years</a>. </p>\n\n\n\n<p>It passed its last milestone of 7 billion in 2011. And, by the end of 2022, another one will pass: <strong>there will be 8 billion people worldwide.</strong></p>\n\n\n\n<p>While this absolute growth is similar to previous decades, the growth <em>rate</em> continues to fall. Since 2019, the global population growth rate has fallen below 1%.\u00a0</p>\n\n\n\n<p>That\u2019s less than half its peak growth rate \u2013 of 2.3% \u2013 in the 1960s.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>As global fertility rates continue to fall (see below), this rate will continue to fall.</p>\n</div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\">\n<iframe src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/population-and-demography?time=earliest..2099&facet=none&Metric=Population+growth+rate&Sex=Both+sexes&Age+group=Total&Projection+Scenario=None&country=~OWID_WRL&hideControls=true\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\"></iframe>\n</div>\n</div>\n\n\n\n<h3>The UN estimates around 15 million excess deaths in 2020 and 2021 from the COVID-19 pandemic</h3>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\">\n<p>The Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has significantly impacted global population and migration trends.\u00a0</p>\n\n\n\n<p>We know that the confirmed death toll from COVID-19 will likely significantly underestimate the true number of deaths because of limited testing. One way to better estimate the pandemic’s total mortality impact is to look at <em>excess </em>mortality data. We can look at the total number of deaths and compare this to the number we expect to occur in a non-pandemic year.</p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>In its latest population dataset, the UN estimates that in 2020, there were approximately 5 million excess deaths. In 2021, this figure was 10 million.</strong> </p>\n\n\n\n<p>This estimate of 15 million excess deaths over 2020 and 2021 aligns with estimates from other organizations. The Economist put its central estimate of excess deaths at 17.6 million. The World Health Organization, a UN organization, <a href=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-deaths-cumulative-who?country=~OWID_WRL\">estimated</a> 14.9 million excess deaths.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>These death figures are highly uncertain. But what\u2019s clear is that the number of confirmed deaths \u2013 just 5.4 million by the end of 2021 \u2013 captures just a fraction of the true impact of the pandemic.</p>\n</div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\">\n<iframe src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/population-and-demography?time=earliest..latest&facet=none&Metric=Deaths&Sex=Both+sexes&Age+group=Total&Projection+Scenario=None&country=~OWID_WRL&hideControls=true\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\"></iframe>\n</div>\n</div>\n\n\n\n<h3>The global population is projected to peak at around 10.4 billion in 2086</h3>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\">\n<p>The world population has increased rapidly over the last century. When will it come to an end?</p>\n\n\n\n<p>Previous versions of the UN World Population Prospects showed a significant slowdown in population growth, with <em>very slow</em> growth \u2013 almost reaching a plateau \u2013 by the end of the century. Its previous release projected that the world population would be around 10.88 billion in 2100 and would not yet have peaked.</p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>In this new release, the UN projects that the global population will peak before the end of the century \u2013 in 2086, at just over 10.4 billion people.</strong>{ref}This is based on its medium-fertility projection scenario. Its \u2018low\u2019 projection scenario peaks much earlier \u2013 in 2054 \u2013 at 8.9 billion people. Its \u2018high\u2019 projection scenario does not peak by the end of the century.{/ref}</p>\n\n\n\n<p>There are several reasons for this earlier and lower peak. One is that the UN expects fertility rates to fall more quickly in low-income countries compared to previous revisions. It also expects less of a \u2018rebound\u2019 in fertility rates across high-income countries in the second half of the century.</p>\n</div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\">\n<iframe src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/population-and-demography?time=earliest..latest&facet=none&Metric=Population&Sex=Both+sexes&Age+group=Total&Projection+Scenario=Medium&country=~OWID_WRL&hideControls=true\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\"></iframe>\n</div>\n</div>\n\n\n\n<h3>The global fertility rate has continued to decline to 2.3 births per woman</h3>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\">\n<p>A key determinant of the global population rate is women’s average number of children over their lifetime \u2013 the <a href=\"http://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate\">fertility rate</a>.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fertility rates have fallen rapidly across the world in recent decades. In 1950, the average woman gave birth around 5 times. Since then, fertility rates have more than halved. In 2021, this global figure was 2.3 births per woman.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you switch to the map tab in the interactive chart, you see that most people now live in countries where fertility rates are at \u2013 or below \u2013 the \u2018replacement level.\u2019 This is the level at which populations would stabilize or shrink over the long term. The UN reports that two-thirds of people live in countries with a fertility rate below 2.1 births per woman. In some high-income countries such as South Korea, Japan, Spain, or Italy, it is as low as 1.3 births per woman.</p>\n</div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\">\n<iframe src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/population-and-demography?facet=none&Metric=Fertility+rate&Sex=Both+sexes&Age+group=Total&Projection+Scenario=Medium&country=High-income+countries~OWID_WRL&hideControls=true\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\"></iframe>\n</div>\n</div>\n\n\n\n<h3>Next year India is expected to take over from China as the world\u2019s most populous country</h3>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\">\n<p>China has been the world\u2019s most populous country for decades. It is now home to more than 1.4 billion people. However, its population growth rate has fallen significantly following a rapid drop in <a href=\"https://tufte.owid.cloud/admin/explorers/preview/demography?time=earliest..2099&facet=none&Metric=Fertility+rate&Sex=Both+sexes&Age+group=Total&Projection+Scenario=Medium&country=CHN~IND\">its fertility rate</a> over the 1970s and 80s.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>The fertility rate in India has also fallen substantially in recent decades \u2013 from 5.7 births per woman in 1950 to just 2 births per woman today. However, the rate of this decline has been slower.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>Because of this, India will very soon overtake China as the most populous country in the world. The UN expects this to happen in 2023.</p>\n</div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\">\n<iframe src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/population-and-demography?time=earliest..latest&facet=none&Metric=Population&Sex=Both+sexes&Age+group=Total&Projection+Scenario=Medium&country=CHN~IND&hideControls=true\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\"></iframe>\n</div>\n</div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n\n\n\n<h4>Explore this data for every country in the world in our new Population and Demography Data Explorer</h4>\n\n\n <block type=\"prominent-link\" style=\"is-style-thin\">\n <link-url>https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/population-and-demography</link-url>\n <title></title>\n <content></content>\n <figure></figure>\n </block>\n\n\n<p></p>\n",
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