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id	title	slug	type	status	content	archieml	archieml_update_statistics	published_at	updated_at	gdocSuccessorId	authors	excerpt	created_at_in_wordpress	updated_at_in_wordpress	featured_image	formattingOptions	markdown	wpApiSnapshot
50485	After millennia of agricultural expansion, the world has passed ‘peak agricultural land’	peak-agriculture-land	post	publish	<!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Humans have been reshaping the planet’s land for millennia by clearing wildlands to grow crops and raise livestock. As a result, humans have <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/world-lost-one-third-forests">cleared one-third of the world’s forests</a> and two-thirds of wild grasslands since the end of the last ice age.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>This has come at a huge cost to the planet’s biodiversity. In the last 50,000 years – and as humans settled in regions around the world – wild mammal biomass <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/wild-mammal-decline">has declined by 85%</a>.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Expanding agriculture has been the biggest driver of the destruction of the world’s wildlands.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>This expansion of agricultural land has now come to an end. After millennia, we have passed the peak, and in recent years global agricultural land use has declined.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:heading {"level":3} --> <h3>‘Peak agricultural land’</h3> <!-- /wp:heading --> <!-- wp:columns --> <div class="wp-block-columns"><!-- wp:column --> <div class="wp-block-column"><!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Agricultural land is the total of arable land that is used to grow crops, and pasture used to raise livestock.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Measuring exactly how much land we use for agriculture is difficult. If all farms were simply rows of densely-planted crops it would be straightforward to calculate how much land is being used. Just draw a square around the field and calculate its area. But across much of the world, this is not how farming looks: it’s often low-density; mixed in with rural villages; in <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/farm-size">tiny smallholdings</a> that are somewhere between a garden and a farm. Where farmland starts and ends is not always clear-cut.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>As a result, there is a range of estimates for how much land is used for agriculture. </p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Here I have brought together three analyses of the change in global land use – these are shown in the visualization.{ref}Global agricultural land use is shown for three sources:</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:heading {"level":5} --> <h5>Klein Goldewijk, K., Beusen, A., Doelman, J., and Stehfest, E. (2017). <a href="https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/9/927/2017/essd-9-927-2017.html">Anthropogenic land use estimates for the Holocene – HYDE 3.2</a>, Earth System Science Data, 9, 927–953.<br></h5> <!-- /wp:heading --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Taylor, C. A., & Rising, J. (2021). <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3c6d">Tipping point dynamics in global land use</a>. Environmental Research Letters, 16(12), 125012.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Available at: <a href="https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/RL">https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/RL</a>.{/ref} Each uses a different methodology, as explained in the chart. The UN FAO produces the bedrock data for each of these analyses from 1961 onwards; however, the researchers apply their own methodologies on top and extend this series further back in time.{ref}The work from Taylor and Rising relies on underlying data from HYDE 3.2 (which, in turn, uses data from the UN FAO from 1961 onwards. Taylor and Rising exclude agricultural lands which are categorized as "protected lands" in UNEP-WCMC's <a href="https://www.protectedplanet.net/en">World Database on Protected Areas</a> (WDPA). These protected lands can sometimes overlap with croplands and pasture where farming practices are more highly restricted. This series from Taylor and Rising would therefore be considered the lower-bound estimate of total agricultural land use.{/ref}</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>As you can see, they disagree on <em>how much</em> land is used for agriculture, and the time at which land use peaked. But they <em>do </em>agree that we have passed the peak. </p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>This marks a historic moment in humanity’s relationship to the planet; a crucial step in its protection of the world’s ecosystems.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>It shows that the future of food production does not need to follow the destructive path that it did in the past. If we continue on this path we will be able to restore space for the planet’s wildlands and wildlife.{ref}Ellis, E. C. (2019). <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aax2608">Sharing the land between nature and people</a>. Science, 364(6447), 1226-1228.{/ref}</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --></div> <!-- /wp:column --> <!-- wp:column --> <div class="wp-block-column"><!-- wp:heading {"level":6} --> <h6><strong>The world has passed peak agricultural land</strong>{ref}Global agricultural land use is shown for three sources:<br><br>Klein Goldewijk, K., Beusen, A., Doelman, J., and Stehfest, E. (2017). <a href="https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/9/927/2017/essd-9-927-2017.html">Anthropogenic land use estimates for the Holocene – HYDE 3.2</a>, Earth System Science Data, 9, 927–953.<br><br>Taylor, C. A., & Rising, J. (2021). <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3c6d">Tipping point dynamics in global land use</a>. Environmental Research Letters, 16(12), 125012.<br><br>Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Available at: <a href="https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/RL">https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/RL</a>.{/ref}</h6> <!-- /wp:heading --> <!-- wp:image {"id":51666,"sizeSlug":"large","linkDestination":"none"} --> <figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img src="https://owid.cloud/app/uploads/2022/06/Peak-agricultural-land-800x540.png" alt="" class="wp-image-51666"/></figure> <!-- /wp:image --> <!-- wp:heading {"level":5} --> <h5>Explore the interactive version of this chart:</h5> <!-- /wp:heading --> <!-- wp:owid/prominent-link {"title":"","linkUrl":"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-peak-agricultural-land?country=~OWID_WRL","className":"is-style-thin"} --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- /wp:owid/prominent-link --></div> <!-- /wp:column --></div> <!-- /wp:columns --> <!-- wp:heading {"level":3} --> <h3>A global decoupling of agricultural land and food production</h3> <!-- /wp:heading --> <!-- wp:columns --> <div class="wp-block-columns"><!-- wp:column --> <div class="wp-block-column"><!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Despite this reduction in agricultural land, the world has continued to produce more food. This is true of both crops and livestock.{ref}You can explore changes in production for any crop or animal product in our <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/global-food">Global Food Explorer</a>.{/ref}</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>We see this decoupling in the chart that presents the UN FAO’s data. It shows that global agricultural land – the green line – has peaked while agricultural production – the brown line – has continued to increase strongly, even after this peak.{ref}Agricultural production, here, is measured in constant 2015 international-dollars, which means it is adjusted for inflation. It captures the economic value of both crops and livestock, and includes both food and non-food products (such as biofuels) from agriculture.{/ref} </p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>When we break each agricultural component out individually or look at it in physical rather than monetary units, we find the same trend: a continued increase in output. You can explore this data for any crop or animal product in our <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/global-food">Global Food Explorer</a>. </p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>This shows that feeding more people does not have to mean taking habitat away from other wildlife. This decoupling means that we can produce more while giving land <em>back</em> to nature at the same time.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:owid/help --> <!-- wp:heading {"level":4} --> <h4>Global agricultural land has peaked, but cropland has not</h4> <!-- /wp:heading --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Global <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-pasture?country=~OWID_WRL">pasture has peaked</a>. Global <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-cropland?country=~OWID_WRL">cropland has not</a>.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>This might come as a surprise as global meat consumption is increasing. How, then, can pasture for livestock have peaked and now be <em>falling</em>? </p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>The world produces <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-meat-production">three times as much</a> meat as it did 50 years ago. But how this meat is produced and what types of meat we eat have shifted. First, we produce a lot of pork and chicken which are not fed on pasture. </p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Second, a lot of our beef production has moved from open pasture grazing towards more intensive farming methods; this has spared land. This presents an important dilemma: grain-fed livestock is often more land-efficient than pasture-fed livestock, so you need less land overall; but the biodiversity on grazing lands is often better than on intensive croplands.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>What this means is that more and more animals are being fed from crops grown on croplands, rather than on pasture. In fact, almost half of the world’s cropland is used to produce animal feed. Unfortunately, this conversion process from crops to meat is still <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/land-use-diets#livestock-waste-a-lot-of-energy-and-protein-but-do-produce-more-nutrient-dense-protein-sources">an inefficient one</a>, meaning we need a lot of land to produce a small amount of food.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Biofuels, too, have added additional pressure on croplands, especially in countries such as the US and Brazil.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- /wp:owid/help --></div> <!-- /wp:column --> <!-- wp:column --> <div class="wp-block-column"><!-- wp:heading {"level":6} --> <h6><strong>Global decoupling of agricultural land and food production</strong>{ref}Data on global agricultural land use and production is sourced from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Available at: <a href="https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/RL">https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/RL</a>.{/ref}</h6> <!-- /wp:heading --> <!-- wp:image {"id":51667,"sizeSlug":"full","linkDestination":"none"} --> <figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img src="https://owid.cloud/app/uploads/2022/05/Global-decoupling-land-and-food.png" alt="" class="wp-image-51667"/></figure> <!-- /wp:image --></div> <!-- /wp:column --></div> <!-- /wp:columns --> <!-- wp:heading {"level":3} --> <h3>Agricultural land use is still increasing in many countries – often at the expense of carbon-rich habitats</h3> <!-- /wp:heading --> <!-- wp:columns --> <div class="wp-block-columns"><!-- wp:column --> <div class="wp-block-column"><!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>While this global picture is promising, there are several reasons why we should not be complacent about this development.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>The first is that <strong>agricultural land use has definitely not peaked everywhere</strong>. Agricultural land use has decreased in some countries but <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/agriculture-more-less-land">continues to increase</a> in others.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>The second is the<strong> distribution of these changes in land use across the world</strong>, and their implications for biodiversity loss and carbon emissions. The largest reductions in pasture have been across arid regions; temperate regions have also seen a reduction in recent decades; meanwhile, pasture has continued to expand in many tropical countries.{ref}Godde, C. M., Garnett, T., Thornton, P. K., Ash, A. J., & Herrero, M. (2018). <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211912417300391">Grazing systems expansion and intensification: drivers, dynamics, and trade-offs</a>. <em>Global Food Security</em>, <em>16</em>, 93-105.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Blaustein-Rejto, D., Blomqvist, L., McNamara, J., and de Kirby, K. (2019). <a href="https://thebreakthrough.org/articles/achieving-peak-pasture">Achieving Peak Pasture: Shrinking Pasture's Footprint by Spreading the Livestock Revolution</a>. <em>The Breakthrough Institute</em>.{/ref} Indeed, as I have <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/what-are-drivers-deforestation">covered elsewhere</a>, the expansion of grazing land for beef production is still the leading driver of global (and tropical) deforestation. </p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>The reason that this shift of pasturelands from arid and temperate to tropical regions is important is that the tropics are much richer in biodiversity and carbon. Over half of the world’s species reside in tropical forests.{ref}Scheffers, B. R., Joppa, L. N., Pimm, S. L., & Laurance, W. F. (2012). <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169534712001231">What we know and don’t know about Earth’s missing biodiversity</a>. <em>Trends in Ecology & Evolution</em>, 27(9), 501-510.{/ref} Tropical forests are also large carbon sinks, and can store a lot of carbon per unit area.{ref}Lewis, S. L. (2006).<a href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/abs/10.1098/rstb.2005.1711?casa_token=eEBuakjTygkAAAAA:vs3Rul_BqNvO3zDY3Xzv27phr6euMZyyqYMf68ltqi-__ji4Cn6MMVbiYt0MVabcdOsteEdrcbdFkT2u"> Tropical forests and the changing earth system</a>. <em>Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences</em>, 361(1465), 195-210.{/ref}</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>The third, as I mentioned earlier, is that <strong>global <em>croplands</em> are still expanding</strong>. We see this in the chart. Other sources suggest that this rate of increase might be even faster.{ref}Potapov, P., Turubanova, S., Hansen, M. C., Tyukavina, A., Zalles, V., Khan, A., ... & Cortez, J. (2022). <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-021-00429-z">Global maps of cropland extent and change show accelerated cropland expansion in the twenty-first century</a>. Nature Food, 3(1), 19-28.{/ref} The <em>World Resources Institute</em> looks at this research in more detail <a href="https://www.wri.org/insights/cropland-expansion-impacts-people-planet">here</a>.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Finally, <strong>quantifying the amount of land that is used for pasture is difficult</strong>. Here we have focused on reported agricultural land use data from the UN FAO based on census data; country reports and expert estimates, but this comes with uncertainty.{ref}For more discussion on this topic, see Chapter 10 here: Searchinger, T., Waite, R., Hanson, C., Ranganathan, J., Dumas, P., Matthews, E., & Klirs, C. (2019). <a href="https://www.wri.org/research/creating-sustainable-food-future">Creating a sustainable food future: A menu of solutions to feed nearly 10 billion people by 2050. </a>Final report.<br><br>Blaustein-Rejto et al. (2019) also discuss data quality issues associated with the quantification of pasure in detail: Blaustein-Rejto, D., Blomqvist, L., McNamara, J., and de Kirby, K. (2019). <a href="https://thebreakthrough.org/articles/achieving-peak-pasture">Achieving Peak Pasture: Shrinking Pasture's Footprint by Spreading the Livestock Revolution</a>. <em>The Breakthrough Institute</em>.{/ref} Improving our measurement of agricultural land use – potentially from satellite data – would allow us to monitor changes more closely.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --></div> <!-- /wp:column --> <!-- wp:column --> <div class="wp-block-column"><!-- wp:html --> <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-cropland?country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> <!-- /wp:html --></div> <!-- /wp:column --></div> <!-- /wp:columns --> <!-- wp:heading {"level":3} --> <h3>Continued decline is not guaranteed: the future of land use rests on the decisions we make today</h3> <!-- /wp:heading --> <!-- wp:columns --> <div class="wp-block-columns"><!-- wp:column --> <div class="wp-block-column"><!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Several sources suggest that global agricultural land use has fallen in recent decades. However, a continued decline is not guaranteed.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>As we see from the HYDE 3.2 series in the first chart, land use reached its highest levels in the early 2000s and has declined since then, but is seeing a small rebound in recent years. Land use is still expanding across Sub-Saharan Africa and South America. As populations increase, and incomes rise, the <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/yields-habitat-loss">pressure on land will continue</a>.{ref}Williams, D. R., Clark, M., Buchanan, G. M., Ficetola, G. F., Rondinini, C., & Tilman, D. (2021). <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-020-00656-5">Proactive conservation to prevent habitat losses to agricultural expansion</a>. Nature Sustainability, 4(4), 314-322.{/ref} </p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>This is why – as I argue <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/yields-habitat-loss"><strong>here</strong></a> – improvements in crop yields and agricultural productivity are so important. Reducing land pressures by <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/land-use-diets">reducing meat consumption</a>, and land dedicated to biofuels is also vital.{ref}Searchinger, T. D., Wirsenius, S., Beringer, T., & Dumas, P. (2018). <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0757-z">Assessing the efficiency of changes in land use for mitigating climate change</a>. <em>Nature</em>, <em>564</em>(7735), 249-253.{/ref}</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Fail to invest in these improvements and we risk reversing this global trend. We may end up with a short-lived and temporary peak. Make it a priority, and we can accelerate reaching this peak everywhere.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --></div> <!-- /wp:column --> <!-- wp:column --> <div class="wp-block-column"></div> <!-- /wp:column --></div> <!-- /wp:columns --> <!-- wp:separator --> <hr class="wp-block-separator"/> <!-- /wp:separator --> <!-- wp:heading {"level":5} --> <h5>Keep reading at <em>Our World in Data</em>...</h5> <!-- /wp:heading --> <!-- wp:owid/prominent-link {"title":"","linkUrl":"https://ourworldindata.org/world-lost-one-third-forests","className":"is-style-thin"} /--> <!-- wp:owid/prominent-link {"title":"","linkUrl":"https://ourworldindata.org/yields-habitat-loss","className":"is-style-thin"} /--> <!-- wp:owid/prominent-link {"title":"","linkUrl":"https://ourworldindata.org/what-are-drivers-deforestation","className":"is-style-thin"} /--> <!-- wp:owid/prominent-link {"title":"","linkUrl":"https://ourworldindata.org/global-deforestation-peak","className":"is-style-thin"} /--> <!-- wp:separator --> <hr class="wp-block-separator"/> <!-- /wp:separator --> <!-- wp:heading {"level":5} --> <h5>Acknowledgments</h5> <!-- /wp:heading --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>I would like to thank Charles Taylor, James Rising, Erle Ellis, and Kees Klein Goldewijk for their suggestions and review of this article. I would also like to thank my colleagues, Max Roser, Pablo Rosado, and Bastian Herre for their editorial feedback.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong>Article updates</strong></p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>This article was first published on 30 May 2022. It was extended on 2 June 2022.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph -->	{ "id": "wp-50485", "slug": "peak-agriculture-land", "content": { "toc": [], "body": [ { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "Humans have been reshaping the planet\u2019s land for millennia by clearing wildlands to grow crops and raise livestock. As a result, humans have ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/world-lost-one-third-forests", "children": [ { "text": "cleared one-third of the world\u2019s forests", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-link" }, { "text": " and two-thirds of wild grasslands since the end of the last ice age.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "This has come at a huge cost to the planet\u2019s biodiversity. In the last 50,000 years \u2013 and as humans settled in regions around the world \u2013 wild mammal biomass ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/wild-mammal-decline", "children": [ { "text": "has declined by 85%", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-link" }, { "text": ".", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "Expanding agriculture has been the biggest driver of the destruction of the world\u2019s wildlands.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "This expansion of agricultural land has now come to an end. 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These protected lands can sometimes overlap with croplands and pasture where farming practices are more highly restricted. This series from Taylor and Rising would therefore be considered the lower-bound estimate of total agricultural land use.{/ref}", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "As you can see, they disagree on ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "children": [ { "text": "how much", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-italic" }, { "text": " land is used for agriculture, and the time at which land use peaked. But they ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "children": [ { "text": "do ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-italic" }, { "text": "agree that we have passed the peak.\u00a0", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "This marks a historic moment in humanity\u2019s relationship to the planet; a crucial step in its protection of the world\u2019s ecosystems.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "It shows that the future of food production does not need to follow the destructive path that it did in the past. If we continue on this path we will be able to restore space for the planet\u2019s wildlands and wildlife.{ref}Ellis, E. C. (2019). ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aax2608", "children": [ { "text": "Sharing the land between nature and people", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-link" }, { "text": ". Science, 364(6447), 1226-1228.{/ref}", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] } ], "type": "sticky-right", "right": [ { "text": [ { "children": [ { "text": "The world has passed peak agricultural land", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-bold" }, { "text": "{ref}Global agricultural land use is shown for three sources:", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "spanType": "span-newline" }, { "spanType": "span-newline" }, { "text": "Klein Goldewijk, K., Beusen, A., Doelman, J., and Stehfest, E. (2017). ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/9/927/2017/essd-9-927-2017.html", "children": [ { "text": "Anthropogenic land use estimates for the Holocene \u2013 HYDE 3.2", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-link" }, { "text": ", Earth System Science Data, 9, 927\u2013953.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "spanType": "span-newline" }, { "spanType": "span-newline" }, { "text": "Taylor, C. A., & Rising, J. (2021). ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3c6d", "children": [ { "text": "Tipping point dynamics in global land use", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-link" }, { "text": ". Environmental Research Letters, 16(12), 125012.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "spanType": "span-newline" }, { "spanType": "span-newline" }, { "text": "Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Available at: ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/RL", "children": [ { "text": "https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/RL", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-link" }, { "text": ".{/ref}", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "type": "heading", "level": 6, "parseErrors": [] }, { "alt": "", "size": "wide", "type": "image", "filename": "Peak-agricultural-land.png", "parseErrors": [] }, { "text": [ { "text": "Explore the interactive version of this chart:", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "type": "heading", "level": 5, "parseErrors": [] }, { "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-peak-agricultural-land?country=~OWID_WRL", "type": "prominent-link", "title": "", "description": "", "parseErrors": [] } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "text": [ { "text": "A global decoupling of agricultural land and food production", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "type": "heading", "level": 2, "parseErrors": [] }, { "left": [ { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "Despite this reduction in agricultural land, the world has continued to produce more food. This is true of both crops and livestock.{ref}You can explore changes in production for any crop or animal product in our ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/global-food", "children": [ { "text": "Global Food Explorer", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-link" }, { "text": ".{/ref}", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "We see this decoupling in the chart that presents the UN FAO\u2019s data. It shows that global agricultural land \u2013 the green line \u2013 has peaked while agricultural production \u2013 the brown line \u2013 has continued to increase strongly, even after this peak.{ref}Agricultural production, here, is measured in constant 2015 international-dollars, which means it is adjusted for inflation. It captures the economic value of both crops and livestock, and includes both food and non-food products (such as biofuels) from agriculture.{/ref}\u00a0", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "When we break each agricultural component out individually or look at it in physical rather than monetary units, we find the same trend: a continued increase in output. You can explore this data for any crop or animal product in our ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/global-food", "children": [ { "text": "Global Food Explorer", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-link" }, { "text": ". ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "This shows that feeding more people does not have to mean taking habitat away from other wildlife. This decoupling means that we can produce more while giving land ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "children": [ { "text": "back", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-italic" }, { "text": " to nature at the same time.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "text": [ { "text": "Global agricultural land has peaked, but cropland has not", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "type": "heading", "level": 4, "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "Global ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-pasture?country=~OWID_WRL", "children": [ { "text": "pasture has peaked", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-link" }, { "text": ". Global ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-cropland?country=~OWID_WRL", "children": [ { "text": "cropland has not", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-link" }, { "text": ".", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "This might come as a surprise as global meat consumption is increasing. How, then, can pasture for livestock have peaked and now be ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "children": [ { "text": "falling", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-italic" }, { "text": "? ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "The world produces ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-meat-production", "children": [ { "text": "three times as much", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-link" }, { "text": " meat as it did 50 years ago. But how this meat is produced and what types of meat we eat have shifted. First, we produce a lot of pork and chicken which are not fed on pasture. ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "Second, a lot of our beef production has moved from open pasture grazing towards more intensive farming methods; this has spared land. This presents an important dilemma: grain-fed livestock is often more land-efficient than pasture-fed livestock, so you need less land overall; but the biodiversity on grazing lands is often better than on intensive croplands.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "What this means is that more and more animals are being fed from crops grown on croplands, rather than on pasture. In fact, almost half of the world\u2019s cropland is used to produce animal feed. Unfortunately, this conversion process from crops to meat is still ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/land-use-diets#livestock-waste-a-lot-of-energy-and-protein-but-do-produce-more-nutrient-dense-protein-sources", "children": [ { "text": "an inefficient one", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-link" }, { "text": ", meaning we need a lot of land to produce a small amount of food.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "Biofuels, too, have added additional pressure on croplands, especially in countries such as the US and Brazil.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] } ], "type": "sticky-right", "right": [ { "text": [ { "children": [ { "text": "Global decoupling of agricultural land and food production", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-bold" }, { "text": "{ref}Data on global agricultural land use and production is sourced from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Available at: ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/RL", "children": [ { "text": "https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/RL", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-link" }, { "text": ".{/ref}", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "type": "heading", "level": 6, "parseErrors": [] }, { "alt": "", "size": "wide", "type": "image", "filename": "Global-decoupling-land-and-food.png", "parseErrors": [] } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "text": [ { "text": "Agricultural land use is still increasing in many countries \u2013 often at the expense of carbon-rich habitats", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "type": "heading", "level": 2, "parseErrors": [] }, { "left": [ { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "While this global picture is promising, there are several reasons why we should not be complacent about this development.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "The first is that ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "children": [ { "text": "agricultural land use has definitely not peaked everywhere", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-bold" }, { "text": ". Agricultural land use has decreased in some countries but ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/agriculture-more-less-land", "children": [ { "text": "continues to increase", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-link" }, { "text": " in others.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "The second is the", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "children": [ { "text": " distribution of these changes in land use across the world", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-bold" }, { "text": ", and their implications for biodiversity loss and carbon emissions. The largest reductions in pasture have been across arid regions; temperate regions have also seen a reduction in recent decades; meanwhile, pasture has continued to expand in many tropical countries.{ref}Godde, C. M., Garnett, T., Thornton, P. K., Ash, A. J., & Herrero, M. (2018). ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211912417300391", "children": [ { "text": "Grazing systems expansion and intensification: drivers, dynamics, and trade-offs", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-link" }, { "text": ".\u00a0", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "children": [ { "text": "Global Food Security", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-italic" }, { "text": ",\u00a0", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "children": [ { "text": "16", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-italic" }, { "text": ", 93-105.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "Blaustein-Rejto, D., Blomqvist, L., McNamara, J., and de Kirby, K. (2019). ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "https://thebreakthrough.org/articles/achieving-peak-pasture", "children": [ { "text": "Achieving Peak Pasture: Shrinking Pasture's Footprint by Spreading the Livestock Revolution", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-link" }, { "text": ". ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "children": [ { "text": "The Breakthrough Institute", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-italic" }, { "text": ".{/ref} Indeed, as I have ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/what-are-drivers-deforestation", "children": [ { "text": "covered elsewhere", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-link" }, { "text": ", the expansion of grazing land for beef production is still the leading driver of global (and tropical) deforestation. ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "The reason that this shift of pasturelands from arid and temperate to tropical regions is important is that the tropics are much richer in biodiversity and carbon. Over half of the world\u2019s species reside in tropical forests.{ref}Scheffers, B. R., Joppa, L. N., Pimm, S. L., & Laurance, W. F. (2012).\u00a0", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169534712001231", "children": [ { "text": "What we know and don\u2019t know about Earth\u2019s missing biodiversity", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-link" }, { "text": ".\u00a0", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "children": [ { "text": "Trends in Ecology & Evolution", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-italic" }, { "text": ", 27(9), 501-510.{/ref} Tropical forests are also large carbon sinks, and can store a lot of carbon per unit area.{ref}Lewis, S. L. (2006).", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/abs/10.1098/rstb.2005.1711?casa_token=eEBuakjTygkAAAAA:vs3Rul_BqNvO3zDY3Xzv27phr6euMZyyqYMf68ltqi-__ji4Cn6MMVbiYt0MVabcdOsteEdrcbdFkT2u", "children": [ { "text": "\u00a0Tropical forests and the changing earth system", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-link" }, { "text": ".\u00a0", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "children": [ { "text": "Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-italic" }, { "text": ", 361(1465), 195-210.{/ref}", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "The third, as I mentioned earlier, is that ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "children": [ { "text": "global ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "children": [ { "text": "croplands", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-italic" }, { "text": " are still expanding", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-bold" }, { "text": ". We see this in the chart. Other sources suggest that this rate of increase might be even faster.{ref}Potapov, P., Turubanova, S., Hansen, M. C., Tyukavina, A., Zalles, V., Khan, A., ... & Cortez, J. (2022). ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-021-00429-z", "children": [ { "text": "Global maps of cropland extent and change show accelerated cropland expansion in the twenty-first century", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-link" }, { "text": ". Nature Food, 3(1), 19-28.{/ref} The ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "children": [ { "text": "World Resources Institute", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-italic" }, { "text": " looks at this research in more detail ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "https://www.wri.org/insights/cropland-expansion-impacts-people-planet", "children": [ { "text": "here", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-link" }, { "text": ".", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "Finally, ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "children": [ { "text": "quantifying the amount of land that is used for pasture is difficult", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-bold" }, { "text": ". Here we have focused on reported agricultural land use data from the UN FAO based on census data; country reports and expert estimates, but this comes with uncertainty.{ref}For more discussion on this topic, see Chapter 10 here: Searchinger, T., Waite, R., Hanson, C., Ranganathan, J., Dumas, P., Matthews, E., & Klirs, C. (2019). ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "https://www.wri.org/research/creating-sustainable-food-future", "children": [ { "text": "Creating a sustainable food future: A menu of solutions to feed nearly 10 billion people by 2050. ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-link" }, { "text": "Final report.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "spanType": "span-newline" }, { "spanType": "span-newline" }, { "text": "Blaustein-Rejto et al. (2019) also discuss data quality issues associated with the quantification of pasure in detail: Blaustein-Rejto, D., Blomqvist, L., McNamara, J., and de Kirby, K. (2019). ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "https://thebreakthrough.org/articles/achieving-peak-pasture", "children": [ { "text": "Achieving Peak Pasture: Shrinking Pasture's Footprint by Spreading the Livestock Revolution", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-link" }, { "text": ". ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "children": [ { "text": "The Breakthrough Institute", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-italic" }, { "text": ".{/ref} Improving our measurement of agricultural land use \u2013 potentially from satellite data \u2013 would allow us to monitor changes more closely.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] } ], "type": "sticky-right", "right": [ { "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-cropland?country=~OWID_WRL", "type": "chart", "parseErrors": [] } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "text": [ { "text": "Continued decline is not guaranteed: the future of land use rests on the decisions we make today", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "type": "heading", "level": 2, "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "Several sources suggest that global agricultural land use has fallen in recent decades. However, a continued decline is not guaranteed.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "As we see from the HYDE 3.2 series in the first chart, land use reached its highest levels in the early 2000s and has declined since then, but is seeing a small rebound in recent years. Land use is still expanding across Sub-Saharan Africa and South America. As populations increase, and incomes rise, the ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/yields-habitat-loss", "children": [ { "text": "pressure on land will continue", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-link" }, { "text": ".{ref}Williams, D. R., Clark, M., Buchanan, G. M., Ficetola, G. F., Rondinini, C., & Tilman, D. (2021). ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-020-00656-5", "children": [ { "text": "Proactive conservation to prevent habitat losses to agricultural expansion", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-link" }, { "text": ". Nature Sustainability, 4(4), 314-322.{/ref} ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "This is why \u2013 as I argue ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/yields-habitat-loss", "children": [ { "children": [ { "text": "here", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-bold" } ], "spanType": "span-link" }, { "text": " \u2013 improvements in crop yields and agricultural productivity are so important. Reducing land pressures by ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/land-use-diets", "children": [ { "text": "reducing meat consumption", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-link" }, { "text": ", and land dedicated to biofuels is also vital.{ref}Searchinger, T. D., Wirsenius, S., Beringer, T., & Dumas, P. (2018). ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0757-z", "children": [ { "text": "Assessing the efficiency of changes in land use for mitigating climate change", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-link" }, { "text": ".\u00a0", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "children": [ { "text": "Nature", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-italic" }, { "text": ",\u00a0", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "children": [ { "text": "564", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-italic" }, { "text": "(7735), 249-253.{/ref}", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "Fail to invest in these improvements and we risk reversing this global trend. We may end up with a short-lived and temporary peak. Make it a priority, and we can accelerate reaching this peak everywhere.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "text": [ { "text": "Keep reading at ", "spanType": "span-simple-text" }, { "children": [ { "text": "Our World in Data", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-italic" }, { "text": "...", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "type": "heading", "level": 4, "parseErrors": [] }, { "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/world-lost-one-third-forests", "type": "prominent-link", "title": "", "description": "", "parseErrors": [] }, { "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/yields-habitat-loss", "type": "prominent-link", "title": "", "description": "", "parseErrors": [] }, { "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/what-are-drivers-deforestation", "type": "prominent-link", "title": "", "description": "", "parseErrors": [] }, { "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/global-deforestation-peak", "type": "prominent-link", "title": "", "description": "", "parseErrors": [] }, { "text": [ { "text": "Acknowledgments", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "type": "heading", "level": 4, "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "I would like to thank Charles Taylor, James Rising, Erle Ellis, and Kees Klein Goldewijk for their suggestions and review of this article. I would also like to thank my colleagues, Max Roser, Pablo Rosado, and Bastian Herre for their editorial feedback.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "children": [ { "text": "Article updates", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "spanType": "span-bold" } ], "parseErrors": [] }, { "type": "text", "value": [ { "text": "This article was first published on 30 May 2022. It was extended on 2 June 2022.", "spanType": "span-simple-text" } ], "parseErrors": [] } ], "type": "article", "title": "After millennia of agricultural expansion, the world has passed \u2018peak agricultural land\u2019", "authors": [ "Hannah Ritchie" ], "excerpt": "The world produces more food than ever, but the amount of land we use is now falling. This means we can feed more people while restoring wild habitat.", "dateline": "May 30, 2022", "subtitle": "The world produces more food than ever, but the amount of land we use is now falling. This means we can feed more people while restoring wild habitat.", "sidebar-toc": false, "featured-image": "Peak-land-thumbnail-1.png" }, "createdAt": "2022-03-31T10:48:47.000Z", "published": false, "updatedAt": "2023-01-24T13:29:15.000Z", "revisionId": null, "publishedAt": "2022-05-30T10:00:00.000Z", "relatedCharts": [], "publicationContext": "listed" }	{ "errors": [ { "name": "unexpected wp component tag", "details": "Found unhandled wp:comment tag image" }, { "name": "unexpected wp component tag", "details": "Found unhandled wp:comment tag owid/help" }, { "name": "unexpected wp component tag", "details": "Found unhandled wp:comment tag image" }, { "name": "unhandled html tag found", "details": "Encountered the unhandled tag hr" }, { "name": "unexpected wp component tag", "details": "Found unhandled wp:comment tag separator" }, { "name": "unhandled html tag found", "details": "Encountered the unhandled tag hr" }, { "name": "unexpected wp component tag", "details": "Found unhandled wp:comment tag separator" } ], "numBlocks": 24, "numErrors": 7, "wpTagCounts": { "html": 1, "image": 2, "column": 8, "columns": 4, "heading": 11, "owid/help": 1, "paragraph": 38, "separator": 2, "owid/prominent-link": 5 }, "htmlTagCounts": { "p": 38, "h3": 4, "h4": 1, "h5": 4, "h6": 2, "hr": 2, "div": 12, "figure": 2, "iframe": 1 } }	2022-05-30 10:00:00	2024-03-05 18:28:48	1UzF0AW_AGYFZwSk6nzqlItP8sTLVUE27or-ko0GGME0	[ "Hannah Ritchie" ]	The world produces more food than ever, but the amount of land we use is now falling. This means we can feed more people while restoring wild habitat.	2022-03-31 10:48:47	2023-01-24 13:29:15	https://ourworldindata.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Peak-land-thumbnail-1.png	{}	Humans have been reshaping the planet’s land for millennia by clearing wildlands to grow crops and raise livestock. As a result, humans have [cleared one-third of the world’s forests](https://ourworldindata.org/world-lost-one-third-forests) and two-thirds of wild grasslands since the end of the last ice age. This has come at a huge cost to the planet’s biodiversity. In the last 50,000 years – and as humans settled in regions around the world – wild mammal biomass [has declined by 85%](https://ourworldindata.org/wild-mammal-decline). Expanding agriculture has been the biggest driver of the destruction of the world’s wildlands. This expansion of agricultural land has now come to an end. After millennia, we have passed the peak, and in recent years global agricultural land use has declined. ## ‘Peak agricultural land’ Agricultural land is the total of arable land that is used to grow crops, and pasture used to raise livestock. Measuring exactly how much land we use for agriculture is difficult. If all farms were simply rows of densely-planted crops it would be straightforward to calculate how much land is being used. Just draw a square around the field and calculate its area. But across much of the world, this is not how farming looks: it’s often low-density; mixed in with rural villages; in [tiny smallholdings](https://ourworldindata.org/farm-size) that are somewhere between a garden and a farm. Where farmland starts and ends is not always clear-cut. As a result, there is a range of estimates for how much land is used for agriculture. Here I have brought together three analyses of the change in global land use – these are shown in the visualization.{ref}Global agricultural land use is shown for three sources: ##### Klein Goldewijk, K., Beusen, A., Doelman, J., and Stehfest, E. (2017). [Anthropogenic land use estimates for the Holocene – HYDE 3.2](https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/9/927/2017/essd-9-927-2017.html), Earth System Science Data, 9, 927–953. Taylor, C. A., & Rising, J. (2021). [Tipping point dynamics in global land use](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3c6d). Environmental Research Letters, 16(12), 125012. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Available at: [https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/RL](https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/RL).{/ref} Each uses a different methodology, as explained in the chart. The UN FAO produces the bedrock data for each of these analyses from 1961 onwards; however, the researchers apply their own methodologies on top and extend this series further back in time.{ref}The work from Taylor and Rising relies on underlying data from HYDE 3.2 (which, in turn, uses data from the UN FAO from 1961 onwards. Taylor and Rising exclude agricultural lands which are categorized as "protected lands" in UNEP-WCMC's [World Database on Protected Areas](https://www.protectedplanet.net/en) (WDPA). These protected lands can sometimes overlap with croplands and pasture where farming practices are more highly restricted. This series from Taylor and Rising would therefore be considered the lower-bound estimate of total agricultural land use.{/ref} As you can see, they disagree on _how much_ land is used for agriculture, and the time at which land use peaked. But they _do _agree that we have passed the peak. This marks a historic moment in humanity’s relationship to the planet; a crucial step in its protection of the world’s ecosystems. It shows that the future of food production does not need to follow the destructive path that it did in the past. If we continue on this path we will be able to restore space for the planet’s wildlands and wildlife.{ref}Ellis, E. C. (2019). [Sharing the land between nature and people](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aax2608). Science, 364(6447), 1226-1228.{/ref} ###### The world has passed peak agricultural land{ref}Global agricultural land use is shown for three sources: Klein Goldewijk, K., Beusen, A., Doelman, J., and Stehfest, E. (2017). [Anthropogenic land use estimates for the Holocene – HYDE 3.2](https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/9/927/2017/essd-9-927-2017.html), Earth System Science Data, 9, 927–953. Taylor, C. A., & Rising, J. (2021). [Tipping point dynamics in global land use](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3c6d). Environmental Research Letters, 16(12), 125012. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Available at: [https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/RL](https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/RL).{/ref} <Image filename="Peak-agricultural-land.png" alt=""/> ##### Explore the interactive version of this chart: ### https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-peak-agricultural-land?country=~OWID_WRL ## A global decoupling of agricultural land and food production Despite this reduction in agricultural land, the world has continued to produce more food. This is true of both crops and livestock.{ref}You can explore changes in production for any crop or animal product in our [Global Food Explorer](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/global-food).{/ref} We see this decoupling in the chart that presents the UN FAO’s data. It shows that global agricultural land – the green line – has peaked while agricultural production – the brown line – has continued to increase strongly, even after this peak.{ref}Agricultural production, here, is measured in constant 2015 international-dollars, which means it is adjusted for inflation. It captures the economic value of both crops and livestock, and includes both food and non-food products (such as biofuels) from agriculture.{/ref} When we break each agricultural component out individually or look at it in physical rather than monetary units, we find the same trend: a continued increase in output. You can explore this data for any crop or animal product in our [Global Food Explorer](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/global-food). This shows that feeding more people does not have to mean taking habitat away from other wildlife. This decoupling means that we can produce more while giving land _back_ to nature at the same time. #### Global agricultural land has peaked, but cropland has not Global [pasture has peaked](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-pasture?country=~OWID_WRL). Global [cropland has not](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-cropland?country=~OWID_WRL). This might come as a surprise as global meat consumption is increasing. How, then, can pasture for livestock have peaked and now be _falling_? The world produces [three times as much](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-meat-production) meat as it did 50 years ago. But how this meat is produced and what types of meat we eat have shifted. First, we produce a lot of pork and chicken which are not fed on pasture. Second, a lot of our beef production has moved from open pasture grazing towards more intensive farming methods; this has spared land. This presents an important dilemma: grain-fed livestock is often more land-efficient than pasture-fed livestock, so you need less land overall; but the biodiversity on grazing lands is often better than on intensive croplands. What this means is that more and more animals are being fed from crops grown on croplands, rather than on pasture. In fact, almost half of the world’s cropland is used to produce animal feed. Unfortunately, this conversion process from crops to meat is still [an inefficient one](https://ourworldindata.org/land-use-diets#livestock-waste-a-lot-of-energy-and-protein-but-do-produce-more-nutrient-dense-protein-sources), meaning we need a lot of land to produce a small amount of food. Biofuels, too, have added additional pressure on croplands, especially in countries such as the US and Brazil. ###### Global decoupling of agricultural land and food production{ref}Data on global agricultural land use and production is sourced from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Available at: [https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/RL](https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/RL).{/ref} <Image filename="Global-decoupling-land-and-food.png" alt=""/> ## Agricultural land use is still increasing in many countries – often at the expense of carbon-rich habitats While this global picture is promising, there are several reasons why we should not be complacent about this development. The first is that agricultural land use has definitely not peaked everywhere. Agricultural land use has decreased in some countries but [continues to increase](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/agriculture-more-less-land) in others. The second is the distribution of these changes in land use across the world, and their implications for biodiversity loss and carbon emissions. The largest reductions in pasture have been across arid regions; temperate regions have also seen a reduction in recent decades; meanwhile, pasture has continued to expand in many tropical countries.{ref}Godde, C. M., Garnett, T., Thornton, P. K., Ash, A. J., & Herrero, M. (2018). [Grazing systems expansion and intensification: drivers, dynamics, and trade-offs](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211912417300391). _Global Food Security_, _16_, 93-105. Blaustein-Rejto, D., Blomqvist, L., McNamara, J., and de Kirby, K. (2019). [Achieving Peak Pasture: Shrinking Pasture's Footprint by Spreading the Livestock Revolution](https://thebreakthrough.org/articles/achieving-peak-pasture). _The Breakthrough Institute_.{/ref} Indeed, as I have [covered elsewhere](https://ourworldindata.org/what-are-drivers-deforestation), the expansion of grazing land for beef production is still the leading driver of global (and tropical) deforestation. The reason that this shift of pasturelands from arid and temperate to tropical regions is important is that the tropics are much richer in biodiversity and carbon. Over half of the world’s species reside in tropical forests.{ref}Scheffers, B. R., Joppa, L. N., Pimm, S. L., & Laurance, W. F. (2012). [What we know and don’t know about Earth’s missing biodiversity](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169534712001231). _Trends in Ecology & Evolution_, 27(9), 501-510.{/ref} Tropical forests are also large carbon sinks, and can store a lot of carbon per unit area.{ref}Lewis, S. L. (2006).[ Tropical forests and the changing earth system](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/abs/10.1098/rstb.2005.1711?casa_token=eEBuakjTygkAAAAA:vs3Rul_BqNvO3zDY3Xzv27phr6euMZyyqYMf68ltqi-__ji4Cn6MMVbiYt0MVabcdOsteEdrcbdFkT2u). _Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences_, 361(1465), 195-210.{/ref} The third, as I mentioned earlier, is that global _croplands_ are still expanding. We see this in the chart. Other sources suggest that this rate of increase might be even faster.{ref}Potapov, P., Turubanova, S., Hansen, M. C., Tyukavina, A., Zalles, V., Khan, A., ... & Cortez, J. (2022). [Global maps of cropland extent and change show accelerated cropland expansion in the twenty-first century](https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-021-00429-z). Nature Food, 3(1), 19-28.{/ref} The _World Resources Institute_ looks at this research in more detail [here](https://www.wri.org/insights/cropland-expansion-impacts-people-planet). Finally, quantifying the amount of land that is used for pasture is difficult. Here we have focused on reported agricultural land use data from the UN FAO based on census data; country reports and expert estimates, but this comes with uncertainty.{ref}For more discussion on this topic, see Chapter 10 here: Searchinger, T., Waite, R., Hanson, C., Ranganathan, J., Dumas, P., Matthews, E., & Klirs, C. (2019). [Creating a sustainable food future: A menu of solutions to feed nearly 10 billion people by 2050. ](https://www.wri.org/research/creating-sustainable-food-future)Final report. Blaustein-Rejto et al. (2019) also discuss data quality issues associated with the quantification of pasure in detail: Blaustein-Rejto, D., Blomqvist, L., McNamara, J., and de Kirby, K. (2019). [Achieving Peak Pasture: Shrinking Pasture's Footprint by Spreading the Livestock Revolution](https://thebreakthrough.org/articles/achieving-peak-pasture). _The Breakthrough Institute_.{/ref} Improving our measurement of agricultural land use – potentially from satellite data – would allow us to monitor changes more closely. <Chart url="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-cropland?country=~OWID_WRL"/> ## Continued decline is not guaranteed: the future of land use rests on the decisions we make today Several sources suggest that global agricultural land use has fallen in recent decades. However, a continued decline is not guaranteed. As we see from the HYDE 3.2 series in the first chart, land use reached its highest levels in the early 2000s and has declined since then, but is seeing a small rebound in recent years. Land use is still expanding across Sub-Saharan Africa and South America. As populations increase, and incomes rise, the [pressure on land will continue](https://ourworldindata.org/yields-habitat-loss).{ref}Williams, D. R., Clark, M., Buchanan, G. M., Ficetola, G. F., Rondinini, C., & Tilman, D. (2021). [Proactive conservation to prevent habitat losses to agricultural expansion](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-020-00656-5). Nature Sustainability, 4(4), 314-322.{/ref} This is why – as I argue [here](https://ourworldindata.org/yields-habitat-loss) – improvements in crop yields and agricultural productivity are so important. Reducing land pressures by [reducing meat consumption](https://ourworldindata.org/land-use-diets), and land dedicated to biofuels is also vital.{ref}Searchinger, T. D., Wirsenius, S., Beringer, T., & Dumas, P. (2018). [Assessing the efficiency of changes in land use for mitigating climate change](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0757-z). _Nature_, _564_(7735), 249-253.{/ref} Fail to invest in these improvements and we risk reversing this global trend. We may end up with a short-lived and temporary peak. Make it a priority, and we can accelerate reaching this peak everywhere. #### Keep reading at _Our World in Data_... ### https://ourworldindata.org/world-lost-one-third-forests ### https://ourworldindata.org/yields-habitat-loss ### https://ourworldindata.org/what-are-drivers-deforestation ### https://ourworldindata.org/global-deforestation-peak #### Acknowledgments I would like to thank Charles Taylor, James Rising, Erle Ellis, and Kees Klein Goldewijk for their suggestions and review of this article. I would also like to thank my colleagues, Max Roser, Pablo Rosado, and Bastian Herre for their editorial feedback. Article updates This article was first published on 30 May 2022. It was extended on 2 June 2022.	{ "id": 50485, "date": "2022-05-30T11:00:00", "guid": { "rendered": "https://owid.cloud/?p=50485" }, "link": "https://owid.cloud/peak-agriculture-land", "meta": { "owid_publication_context_meta_field": { "latest": true, "homepage": true, "immediate_newsletter": true } }, "slug": "peak-agriculture-land", "tags": [], "type": "post", "title": { "rendered": "After millennia of agricultural expansion, the world has passed \u2018peak agricultural land\u2019" }, "_links": { "self": [ { "href": "https://owid.cloud/wp-json/wp/v2/posts/50485" } ], "about": [ { "href": "https://owid.cloud/wp-json/wp/v2/types/post" } ], "author": [ { "href": "https://owid.cloud/wp-json/wp/v2/users/17", "embeddable": true } ], "curies": [ { "href": "https://api.w.org/{rel}", "name": "wp", "templated": true } ], "replies": [ { "href": "https://owid.cloud/wp-json/wp/v2/comments?post=50485", "embeddable": true } ], "wp:term": [ { "href": "https://owid.cloud/wp-json/wp/v2/categories?post=50485", "taxonomy": "category", "embeddable": true }, { "href": "https://owid.cloud/wp-json/wp/v2/tags?post=50485", "taxonomy": "post_tag", "embeddable": true } ], "collection": [ { "href": "https://owid.cloud/wp-json/wp/v2/posts" } ], "wp:attachment": [ { "href": "https://owid.cloud/wp-json/wp/v2/media?parent=50485" } ], "version-history": [ { "href": "https://owid.cloud/wp-json/wp/v2/posts/50485/revisions", "count": 13 } ], "wp:featuredmedia": [ { "href": "https://owid.cloud/wp-json/wp/v2/media/50490", "embeddable": true } ], "predecessor-version": [ { "id": 55597, "href": "https://owid.cloud/wp-json/wp/v2/posts/50485/revisions/55597" } ] }, "author": 17, "format": "standard", "status": "publish", "sticky": false, "content": { "rendered": "\n<p>Humans have been reshaping the planet\u2019s land for millennia by clearing wildlands to grow crops and raise livestock. As a result, humans have <a href=\"https://ourworldindata.org/world-lost-one-third-forests\">cleared one-third of the world\u2019s forests</a> and two-thirds of wild grasslands since the end of the last ice age.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>This has come at a huge cost to the planet\u2019s biodiversity. In the last 50,000 years \u2013 and as humans settled in regions around the world \u2013 wild mammal biomass <a href=\"https://ourworldindata.org/wild-mammal-decline\">has declined by 85%</a>.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>Expanding agriculture has been the biggest driver of the destruction of the world\u2019s wildlands.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>This expansion of agricultural land has now come to an end. After millennia, we have passed the peak, and in recent years global agricultural land use has declined.</p>\n\n\n\n<h3>\u2018Peak agricultural land\u2019</h3>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\">\n<p>Agricultural land is the total of arable land that is used to grow crops, and pasture used to raise livestock.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>Measuring exactly how much land we use for agriculture is difficult. If all farms were simply rows of densely-planted crops it would be straightforward to calculate how much land is being used. Just draw a square around the field and calculate its area. But across much of the world, this is not how farming looks: it\u2019s often low-density; mixed in with rural villages; in <a href=\"https://ourworldindata.org/farm-size\">tiny smallholdings</a> that are somewhere between a garden and a farm. Where farmland starts and ends is not always clear-cut.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>As a result, there is a range of estimates for how much land is used for agriculture.\u00a0</p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here I have brought together three analyses of the change in global land use \u2013 these are shown in the visualization.{ref}Global agricultural land use is shown for three sources:</p>\n\n\n\n<h5>Klein Goldewijk, K., Beusen, A., Doelman, J., and Stehfest, E. (2017). <a href=\"https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/9/927/2017/essd-9-927-2017.html\">Anthropogenic land use estimates for the Holocene \u2013 HYDE 3.2</a>, Earth System Science Data, 9, 927\u2013953.<br></h5>\n\n\n\n<p>Taylor, C. A., & Rising, J. (2021). <a href=\"https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3c6d\">Tipping point dynamics in global land use</a>. Environmental Research Letters, 16(12), 125012.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Available at: <a href=\"https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/RL\">https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/RL</a>.{/ref} Each uses a different methodology, as explained in the chart. The UN FAO produces the bedrock data for each of these analyses from 1961 onwards; however, the researchers apply their own methodologies on top and extend this series further back in time.{ref}The work from Taylor and Rising relies on underlying data from HYDE 3.2 (which, in turn, uses data from the UN FAO from 1961 onwards. Taylor and Rising exclude agricultural lands which are categorized as “protected lands” in UNEP-WCMC’s <a href=\"https://www.protectedplanet.net/en\">World Database on Protected Areas</a> (WDPA). These protected lands can sometimes overlap with croplands and pasture where farming practices are more highly restricted. This series from Taylor and Rising would therefore be considered the lower-bound estimate of total agricultural land use.{/ref}</p>\n\n\n\n<p>As you can see, they disagree on <em>how much</em> land is used for agriculture, and the time at which land use peaked. But they <em>do </em>agree that we have passed the peak. </p>\n\n\n\n<p>This marks a historic moment in humanity\u2019s relationship to the planet; a crucial step in its protection of the world\u2019s ecosystems.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>It shows that the future of food production does not need to follow the destructive path that it did in the past. If we continue on this path we will be able to restore space for the planet\u2019s wildlands and wildlife.{ref}Ellis, E. C. (2019). <a href=\"https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aax2608\">Sharing the land between nature and people</a>. Science, 364(6447), 1226-1228.{/ref}</p>\n</div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\">\n<h6><strong>The world has passed peak agricultural land</strong>{ref}Global agricultural land use is shown for three sources:<br><br>Klein Goldewijk, K., Beusen, A., Doelman, J., and Stehfest, E. (2017). <a href=\"https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/9/927/2017/essd-9-927-2017.html\">Anthropogenic land use estimates for the Holocene \u2013 HYDE 3.2</a>, Earth System Science Data, 9, 927\u2013953.<br><br>Taylor, C. A., & Rising, J. (2021). <a href=\"https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3c6d\">Tipping point dynamics in global land use</a>. Environmental Research Letters, 16(12), 125012.<br><br>Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Available at: <a href=\"https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/RL\">https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/RL</a>.{/ref}</h6>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"800\" height=\"540\" src=\"https://owid.cloud/app/uploads/2022/06/Peak-agricultural-land-800x540.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-51666\" srcset=\"https://owid.cloud/app/uploads/2022/06/Peak-agricultural-land-800x540.png 800w, https://owid.cloud/app/uploads/2022/06/Peak-agricultural-land-400x270.png 400w, https://owid.cloud/app/uploads/2022/06/Peak-agricultural-land-150x101.png 150w, https://owid.cloud/app/uploads/2022/06/Peak-agricultural-land-768x519.png 768w, https://owid.cloud/app/uploads/2022/06/Peak-agricultural-land-1536x1038.png 1536w, https://owid.cloud/app/uploads/2022/06/Peak-agricultural-land.png 1899w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" /></figure>\n\n\n\n<h5>Explore the interactive version of this chart:</h5>\n\n\n <block type=\"prominent-link\" style=\"is-style-thin\">\n <link-url>https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-peak-agricultural-land?country=~OWID_WRL</link-url>\n <title></title>\n <content>\n\n<p></p>\n\n</content>\n <figure></figure>\n </block></div>\n</div>\n\n\n\n<h3>A global decoupling of agricultural land and food production</h3>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\">\n<p>Despite this reduction in agricultural land, the world has continued to produce more food. This is true of both crops and livestock.{ref}You can explore changes in production for any crop or animal product in our <a href=\"https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/global-food\">Global Food Explorer</a>.{/ref}</p>\n\n\n\n<p>We see this decoupling in the chart that presents the UN FAO\u2019s data. It shows that global agricultural land \u2013 the green line \u2013 has peaked while agricultural production \u2013 the brown line \u2013 has continued to increase strongly, even after this peak.{ref}Agricultural production, here, is measured in constant 2015 international-dollars, which means it is adjusted for inflation. It captures the economic value of both crops and livestock, and includes both food and non-food products (such as biofuels) from agriculture.{/ref} </p>\n\n\n\n<p>When we break each agricultural component out individually or look at it in physical rather than monetary units, we find the same trend: a continued increase in output. You can explore this data for any crop or animal product in our <a href=\"https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/global-food\">Global Food Explorer</a>. </p>\n\n\n\n<p>This shows that feeding more people does not have to mean taking habitat away from other wildlife. This decoupling means that we can produce more while giving land <em>back</em> to nature at the same time.</p>\n\n\n\t<block type=\"help\">\n\t\t<content>\n\n<h4>Global agricultural land has peaked, but cropland has not</h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Global <a href=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-pasture?country=~OWID_WRL\">pasture has peaked</a>. Global <a href=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-cropland?country=~OWID_WRL\">cropland has not</a>.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>This might come as a surprise as global meat consumption is increasing. How, then, can pasture for livestock have peaked and now be <em>falling</em>? </p>\n\n\n\n<p>The world produces <a href=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-meat-production\">three times as much</a> meat as it did 50 years ago. But how this meat is produced and what types of meat we eat have shifted. First, we produce a lot of pork and chicken which are not fed on pasture. </p>\n\n\n\n<p>Second, a lot of our beef production has moved from open pasture grazing towards more intensive farming methods; this has spared land. This presents an important dilemma: grain-fed livestock is often more land-efficient than pasture-fed livestock, so you need less land overall; but the biodiversity on grazing lands is often better than on intensive croplands.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>What this means is that more and more animals are being fed from crops grown on croplands, rather than on pasture. In fact, almost half of the world\u2019s cropland is used to produce animal feed. Unfortunately, this conversion process from crops to meat is still <a href=\"https://ourworldindata.org/land-use-diets#livestock-waste-a-lot-of-energy-and-protein-but-do-produce-more-nutrient-dense-protein-sources\">an inefficient one</a>, meaning we need a lot of land to produce a small amount of food.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>Biofuels, too, have added additional pressure on croplands, especially in countries such as the US and Brazil.</p>\n\n</content>\n\t</block></div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\">\n<h6><strong>Global decoupling of agricultural land and food production</strong>{ref}Data on global agricultural land use and production is sourced from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Available at: <a href=\"https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/RL\">https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/RL</a>.{/ref}</h6>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1700\" height=\"1260\" src=\"https://owid.cloud/app/uploads/2022/05/Global-decoupling-land-and-food.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-51667\" srcset=\"https://owid.cloud/app/uploads/2022/05/Global-decoupling-land-and-food.png 1700w, https://owid.cloud/app/uploads/2022/05/Global-decoupling-land-and-food-400x296.png 400w, https://owid.cloud/app/uploads/2022/05/Global-decoupling-land-and-food-742x550.png 742w, https://owid.cloud/app/uploads/2022/05/Global-decoupling-land-and-food-150x111.png 150w, https://owid.cloud/app/uploads/2022/05/Global-decoupling-land-and-food-768x569.png 768w, https://owid.cloud/app/uploads/2022/05/Global-decoupling-land-and-food-1536x1138.png 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1700px) 100vw, 1700px\" /></figure>\n</div>\n</div>\n\n\n\n<h3>Agricultural land use is still increasing in many countries \u2013 often at the expense of carbon-rich habitats</h3>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\">\n<p>While this global picture is promising, there are several reasons why we should not be complacent about this development.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>The first is that <strong>agricultural land use has definitely not peaked everywhere</strong>. Agricultural land use has decreased in some countries but <a href=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/agriculture-more-less-land\">continues to increase</a> in others.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>The second is the<strong> distribution of these changes in land use across the world</strong>, and their implications for biodiversity loss and carbon emissions. The largest reductions in pasture have been across arid regions; temperate regions have also seen a reduction in recent decades; meanwhile, pasture has continued to expand in many tropical countries.{ref}Godde, C. M., Garnett, T., Thornton, P. K., Ash, A. J., & Herrero, M. (2018). <a href=\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211912417300391\">Grazing systems expansion and intensification: drivers, dynamics, and trade-offs</a>.\u00a0<em>Global Food Security</em>,\u00a0<em>16</em>, 93-105.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>Blaustein-Rejto, D., Blomqvist, L., McNamara, J., and de Kirby, K. (2019). <a href=\"https://thebreakthrough.org/articles/achieving-peak-pasture\">Achieving Peak Pasture: Shrinking Pasture’s Footprint by Spreading the Livestock Revolution</a>. <em>The Breakthrough Institute</em>.{/ref} Indeed, as I have <a href=\"https://ourworldindata.org/what-are-drivers-deforestation\">covered elsewhere</a>, the expansion of grazing land for beef production is still the leading driver of global (and tropical) deforestation. </p>\n\n\n\n<p>The reason that this shift of pasturelands from arid and temperate to tropical regions is important is that the tropics are much richer in biodiversity and carbon. Over half of the world\u2019s species reside in tropical forests.{ref}Scheffers, B. R., Joppa, L. N., Pimm, S. L., & Laurance, W. F. (2012). <a href=\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169534712001231\">What we know and don\u2019t know about Earth\u2019s missing biodiversity</a>. <em>Trends in Ecology & Evolution</em>, 27(9), 501-510.{/ref} Tropical forests are also large carbon sinks, and can store a lot of carbon per unit area.{ref}Lewis, S. L. (2006).<a href=\"https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/abs/10.1098/rstb.2005.1711?casa_token=eEBuakjTygkAAAAA:vs3Rul_BqNvO3zDY3Xzv27phr6euMZyyqYMf68ltqi-__ji4Cn6MMVbiYt0MVabcdOsteEdrcbdFkT2u\"> Tropical forests and the changing earth system</a>. <em>Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences</em>, 361(1465), 195-210.{/ref}</p>\n\n\n\n<p>The third, as I mentioned earlier, is that <strong>global <em>croplands</em> are still expanding</strong>. We see this in the chart. Other sources suggest that this rate of increase might be even faster.{ref}Potapov, P., Turubanova, S., Hansen, M. C., Tyukavina, A., Zalles, V., Khan, A., … & Cortez, J. (2022). <a href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-021-00429-z\">Global maps of cropland extent and change show accelerated cropland expansion in the twenty-first century</a>. Nature Food, 3(1), 19-28.{/ref} The <em>World Resources Institute</em> looks at this research in more detail <a href=\"https://www.wri.org/insights/cropland-expansion-impacts-people-planet\">here</a>.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>Finally, <strong>quantifying the amount of land that is used for pasture is difficult</strong>. Here we have focused on reported agricultural land use data from the UN FAO based on census data; country reports and expert estimates, but this comes with uncertainty.{ref}For more discussion on this topic, see Chapter 10 here: Searchinger, T., Waite, R., Hanson, C., Ranganathan, J., Dumas, P., Matthews, E., & Klirs, C. (2019). <a href=\"https://www.wri.org/research/creating-sustainable-food-future\">Creating a sustainable food future: A menu of solutions to feed nearly 10 billion people by 2050. </a>Final report.<br><br>Blaustein-Rejto et al. (2019) also discuss data quality issues associated with the quantification of pasure in detail: Blaustein-Rejto, D., Blomqvist, L., McNamara, J., and de Kirby, K. (2019). <a href=\"https://thebreakthrough.org/articles/achieving-peak-pasture\">Achieving Peak Pasture: Shrinking Pasture’s Footprint by Spreading the Livestock Revolution</a>. <em>The Breakthrough Institute</em>.{/ref} Improving our measurement of agricultural land use \u2013 potentially from satellite data \u2013 would allow us to monitor changes more closely.</p>\n</div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\">\n<iframe src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-cropland?country=~OWID_WRL\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\"></iframe>\n</div>\n</div>\n\n\n\n<h3>Continued decline is not guaranteed: the future of land use rests on the decisions we make today</h3>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\">\n<p>Several sources suggest that global agricultural land use has fallen in recent decades. However, a continued decline is not guaranteed.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>As we see from the HYDE 3.2 series in the first chart, land use reached its highest levels in the early 2000s and has declined since then, but is seeing a small rebound in recent years. Land use is still expanding across Sub-Saharan Africa and South America. As populations increase, and incomes rise, the <a href=\"https://ourworldindata.org/yields-habitat-loss\">pressure on land will continue</a>.{ref}Williams, D. R., Clark, M., Buchanan, G. M., Ficetola, G. F., Rondinini, C., & Tilman, D. (2021). <a href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-020-00656-5\">Proactive conservation to prevent habitat losses to agricultural expansion</a>. Nature Sustainability, 4(4), 314-322.{/ref} </p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is why \u2013 as I argue <a href=\"https://ourworldindata.org/yields-habitat-loss\"><strong>here</strong></a> \u2013 improvements in crop yields and agricultural productivity are so important. Reducing land pressures by <a href=\"https://ourworldindata.org/land-use-diets\">reducing meat consumption</a>, and land dedicated to biofuels is also vital.{ref}Searchinger, T. D., Wirsenius, S., Beringer, T., & Dumas, P. (2018). <a href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0757-z\">Assessing the efficiency of changes in land use for mitigating climate change</a>. <em>Nature</em>, <em>564</em>(7735), 249-253.{/ref}</p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fail to invest in these improvements and we risk reversing this global trend. We may end up with a short-lived and temporary peak. Make it a priority, and we can accelerate reaching this peak everywhere.</p>\n</div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"></div>\n</div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n\n\n\n<h5>Keep reading at <em>Our World in Data</em>…</h5>\n\n\n <block type=\"prominent-link\" style=\"is-style-thin\">\n <link-url>https://ourworldindata.org/world-lost-one-third-forests</link-url>\n <title></title>\n <content></content>\n <figure></figure>\n </block>\n\n <block type=\"prominent-link\" style=\"is-style-thin\">\n <link-url>https://ourworldindata.org/yields-habitat-loss</link-url>\n <title></title>\n <content></content>\n <figure></figure>\n </block>\n\n <block type=\"prominent-link\" style=\"is-style-thin\">\n <link-url>https://ourworldindata.org/what-are-drivers-deforestation</link-url>\n <title></title>\n <content></content>\n <figure></figure>\n </block>\n\n <block type=\"prominent-link\" style=\"is-style-thin\">\n <link-url>https://ourworldindata.org/global-deforestation-peak</link-url>\n <title></title>\n <content></content>\n <figure></figure>\n </block>\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n\n\n\n<h5>Acknowledgments</h5>\n\n\n\n<p>I would like to thank Charles Taylor, James Rising, Erle Ellis, and Kees Klein Goldewijk for their suggestions and review of this article. I would also like to thank my colleagues, Max Roser, Pablo Rosado, and Bastian Herre for their editorial feedback.</p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Article updates</strong></p>\n\n\n\n<p>This article was first published on 30 May 2022. It was extended on 2 June 2022.</p>\n", "protected": false }, "excerpt": { "rendered": "The world produces more food than ever, but the amount of land we use is now falling. This means we can feed more people while restoring wild habitat.", "protected": false }, "date_gmt": "2022-05-30T10:00:00", "modified": "2023-01-24T13:29:15", "template": "", "categories": [ 188, 1 ], "ping_status": "closed", "authors_name": [ "Hannah Ritchie" ], "modified_gmt": "2023-01-24T13:29:15", "comment_status": "closed", "featured_media": 50490, "featured_media_paths": { "thumbnail": "/app/uploads/2022/03/Peak-land-thumbnail-1-150x59.png", "medium_large": "/app/uploads/2022/03/Peak-land-thumbnail-1-768x301.png" } }

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After millennia of agricultural expansion, the world has passed ‘peak agricultural land’

peak-agriculture-land

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publish

<p>Humans have been reshaping the planet’s land for millennia by clearing wildlands to grow crops and raise livestock. As a result, humans have <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/world-lost-one-third-forests">cleared one-third of the world’s forests</a> and two-thirds of wild grasslands since the end of the last ice age.</p>   <p>This has come at a huge cost to the planet’s biodiversity. In the last 50,000 years – and as humans settled in regions around the world – wild mammal biomass <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/wild-mammal-decline">has declined by 85%</a>.</p>   <p>Expanding agriculture has been the biggest driver of the destruction of the world’s wildlands.</p>   <p>This expansion of agricultural land has now come to an end. After millennia, we have passed the peak, and in recent years global agricultural land use has declined.</p>   <h3>‘Peak agricultural land’</h3>   <div class="wp-block-columns"> <div class="wp-block-column"> <p>Agricultural land is the total of arable land that is used to grow crops, and pasture used to raise livestock.</p>   <p>Measuring exactly how much land we use for agriculture is difficult. If all farms were simply rows of densely-planted crops it would be straightforward to calculate how much land is being used. Just draw a square around the field and calculate its area. But across much of the world, this is not how farming looks: it’s often low-density; mixed in with rural villages; in <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/farm-size">tiny smallholdings</a> that are somewhere between a garden and a farm. Where farmland starts and ends is not always clear-cut.</p>   <p>As a result, there is a range of estimates for how much land is used for agriculture. </p>   <p>Here I have brought together three analyses of the change in global land use – these are shown in the visualization.{ref}Global agricultural land use is shown for three sources:</p>   <h5>Klein Goldewijk, K., Beusen, A., Doelman, J., and Stehfest, E. (2017). <a href="https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/9/927/2017/essd-9-927-2017.html">Anthropogenic land use estimates for the Holocene – HYDE 3.2</a>, Earth System Science Data, 9, 927–953.<br></h5>   <p>Taylor, C. A., & Rising, J. (2021). <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3c6d">Tipping point dynamics in global land use</a>. Environmental Research Letters, 16(12), 125012.</p>   <p>Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Available at: <a href="https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/RL">https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/RL</a>.{/ref} Each uses a different methodology, as explained in the chart. The UN FAO produces the bedrock data for each of these analyses from 1961 onwards; however, the researchers apply their own methodologies on top and extend this series further back in time.{ref}The work from Taylor and Rising relies on underlying data from HYDE 3.2 (which, in turn, uses data from the UN FAO from 1961 onwards. Taylor and Rising exclude agricultural lands which are categorized as "protected lands" in UNEP-WCMC's <a href="https://www.protectedplanet.net/en">World Database on Protected Areas</a> (WDPA). These protected lands can sometimes overlap with croplands and pasture where farming practices are more highly restricted. This series from Taylor and Rising would therefore be considered the lower-bound estimate of total agricultural land use.{/ref}</p>   <p>As you can see, they disagree on <em>how much</em> land is used for agriculture, and the time at which land use peaked. But they <em>do </em>agree that we have passed the peak. </p>   <p>This marks a historic moment in humanity’s relationship to the planet; a crucial step in its protection of the world’s ecosystems.</p>   <p>It shows that the future of food production does not need to follow the destructive path that it did in the past. If we continue on this path we will be able to restore space for the planet’s wildlands and wildlife.{ref}Ellis, E. C. (2019). <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aax2608">Sharing the land between nature and people</a>. Science, 364(6447), 1226-1228.{/ref}</p> </div>   <div class="wp-block-column"> <h6><strong>The world has passed peak agricultural land</strong>{ref}Global agricultural land use is shown for three sources:<br><br>Klein Goldewijk, K., Beusen, A., Doelman, J., and Stehfest, E. (2017). <a href="https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/9/927/2017/essd-9-927-2017.html">Anthropogenic land use estimates for the Holocene – HYDE 3.2</a>, Earth System Science Data, 9, 927–953.<br><br>Taylor, C. A., & Rising, J. (2021). <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3c6d">Tipping point dynamics in global land use</a>. Environmental Research Letters, 16(12), 125012.<br><br>Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Available at: <a href="https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/RL">https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/RL</a>.{/ref}</h6>   <figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img src="https://owid.cloud/app/uploads/2022/06/Peak-agricultural-land-800x540.png" alt="" class="wp-image-51666"/></figure>   <h5>Explore the interactive version of this chart:</h5>    <p></p>  </div> </div>   <h3>A global decoupling of agricultural land and food production</h3>   <div class="wp-block-columns"> <div class="wp-block-column"> <p>Despite this reduction in agricultural land, the world has continued to produce more food. This is true of both crops and livestock.{ref}You can explore changes in production for any crop or animal product in our <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/global-food">Global Food Explorer</a>.{/ref}</p>   <p>We see this decoupling in the chart that presents the UN FAO’s data. It shows that global agricultural land – the green line – has peaked while agricultural production – the brown line – has continued to increase strongly, even after this peak.{ref}Agricultural production, here, is measured in constant 2015 international-dollars, which means it is adjusted for inflation. It captures the economic value of both crops and livestock, and includes both food and non-food products (such as biofuels) from agriculture.{/ref} </p>   <p>When we break each agricultural component out individually or look at it in physical rather than monetary units, we find the same trend: a continued increase in output. You can explore this data for any crop or animal product in our <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/global-food">Global Food Explorer</a>. </p>   <p>This shows that feeding more people does not have to mean taking habitat away from other wildlife. This decoupling means that we can produce more while giving land <em>back</em> to nature at the same time.</p>    <h4>Global agricultural land has peaked, but cropland has not</h4>   <p>Global <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-pasture?country=~OWID_WRL">pasture has peaked</a>. Global <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-cropland?country=~OWID_WRL">cropland has not</a>.</p>   <p>This might come as a surprise as global meat consumption is increasing. How, then, can pasture for livestock have peaked and now be <em>falling</em>? </p>   <p>The world produces <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-meat-production">three times as much</a> meat as it did 50 years ago. But how this meat is produced and what types of meat we eat have shifted. First, we produce a lot of pork and chicken which are not fed on pasture. </p>   <p>Second, a lot of our beef production has moved from open pasture grazing towards more intensive farming methods; this has spared land. This presents an important dilemma: grain-fed livestock is often more land-efficient than pasture-fed livestock, so you need less land overall; but the biodiversity on grazing lands is often better than on intensive croplands.</p>   <p>What this means is that more and more animals are being fed from crops grown on croplands, rather than on pasture. In fact, almost half of the world’s cropland is used to produce animal feed. Unfortunately, this conversion process from crops to meat is still <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/land-use-diets#livestock-waste-a-lot-of-energy-and-protein-but-do-produce-more-nutrient-dense-protein-sources">an inefficient one</a>, meaning we need a lot of land to produce a small amount of food.</p>   <p>Biofuels, too, have added additional pressure on croplands, especially in countries such as the US and Brazil.</p>  </div>   <div class="wp-block-column"> <h6><strong>Global decoupling of agricultural land and food production</strong>{ref}Data on global agricultural land use and production is sourced from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Available at: <a href="https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/RL">https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/RL</a>.{/ref}</h6>   <figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img src="https://owid.cloud/app/uploads/2022/05/Global-decoupling-land-and-food.png" alt="" class="wp-image-51667"/></figure> </div> </div>   <h3>Agricultural land use is still increasing in many countries – often at the expense of carbon-rich habitats</h3>   <div class="wp-block-columns"> <div class="wp-block-column"> <p>While this global picture is promising, there are several reasons why we should not be complacent about this development.</p>   <p>The first is that <strong>agricultural land use has definitely not peaked everywhere</strong>. Agricultural land use has decreased in some countries but <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/agriculture-more-less-land">continues to increase</a> in others.</p>   <p>The second is the<strong> distribution of these changes in land use across the world</strong>, and their implications for biodiversity loss and carbon emissions. The largest reductions in pasture have been across arid regions; temperate regions have also seen a reduction in recent decades; meanwhile, pasture has continued to expand in many tropical countries.{ref}Godde, C. M., Garnett, T., Thornton, P. K., Ash, A. J., & Herrero, M. (2018). <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211912417300391">Grazing systems expansion and intensification: drivers, dynamics, and trade-offs</a>. <em>Global Food Security</em>, <em>16</em>, 93-105.</p>   <p>Blaustein-Rejto, D., Blomqvist, L., McNamara, J., and de Kirby, K. (2019). <a href="https://thebreakthrough.org/articles/achieving-peak-pasture">Achieving Peak Pasture: Shrinking Pasture's Footprint by Spreading the Livestock Revolution</a>. <em>The Breakthrough Institute</em>.{/ref} Indeed, as I have <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/what-are-drivers-deforestation">covered elsewhere</a>, the expansion of grazing land for beef production is still the leading driver of global (and tropical) deforestation. </p>   <p>The reason that this shift of pasturelands from arid and temperate to tropical regions is important is that the tropics are much richer in biodiversity and carbon. Over half of the world’s species reside in tropical forests.{ref}Scheffers, B. R., Joppa, L. N., Pimm, S. L., & Laurance, W. F. (2012). <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169534712001231">What we know and don’t know about Earth’s missing biodiversity</a>. <em>Trends in Ecology & Evolution</em>, 27(9), 501-510.{/ref} Tropical forests are also large carbon sinks, and can store a lot of carbon per unit area.{ref}Lewis, S. L. (2006).<a href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/abs/10.1098/rstb.2005.1711?casa_token=eEBuakjTygkAAAAA:vs3Rul_BqNvO3zDY3Xzv27phr6euMZyyqYMf68ltqi-__ji4Cn6MMVbiYt0MVabcdOsteEdrcbdFkT2u"> Tropical forests and the changing earth system</a>. <em>Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences</em>, 361(1465), 195-210.{/ref}</p>   <p>The third, as I mentioned earlier, is that <strong>global <em>croplands</em> are still expanding</strong>. We see this in the chart. Other sources suggest that this rate of increase might be even faster.{ref}Potapov, P., Turubanova, S., Hansen, M. C., Tyukavina, A., Zalles, V., Khan, A., ... & Cortez, J. (2022). <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-021-00429-z">Global maps of cropland extent and change show accelerated cropland expansion in the twenty-first century</a>. Nature Food, 3(1), 19-28.{/ref} The <em>World Resources Institute</em> looks at this research in more detail <a href="https://www.wri.org/insights/cropland-expansion-impacts-people-planet">here</a>.</p>   <p>Finally, <strong>quantifying the amount of land that is used for pasture is difficult</strong>. Here we have focused on reported agricultural land use data from the UN FAO based on census data; country reports and expert estimates, but this comes with uncertainty.{ref}For more discussion on this topic, see Chapter 10 here: Searchinger, T., Waite, R., Hanson, C., Ranganathan, J., Dumas, P., Matthews, E., & Klirs, C. (2019). <a href="https://www.wri.org/research/creating-sustainable-food-future">Creating a sustainable food future: A menu of solutions to feed nearly 10 billion people by 2050. </a>Final report.<br><br>Blaustein-Rejto et al. (2019) also discuss data quality issues associated with the quantification of pasure in detail: Blaustein-Rejto, D., Blomqvist, L., McNamara, J., and de Kirby, K. (2019). <a href="https://thebreakthrough.org/articles/achieving-peak-pasture">Achieving Peak Pasture: Shrinking Pasture's Footprint by Spreading the Livestock Revolution</a>. <em>The Breakthrough Institute</em>.{/ref} Improving our measurement of agricultural land use – potentially from satellite data – would allow us to monitor changes more closely.</p> </div>   <div class="wp-block-column"> <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-cropland?country=~OWID_WRL" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> </div> </div>   <h3>Continued decline is not guaranteed: the future of land use rests on the decisions we make today</h3>   <div class="wp-block-columns"> <div class="wp-block-column"> <p>Several sources suggest that global agricultural land use has fallen in recent decades. However, a continued decline is not guaranteed.</p>   <p>As we see from the HYDE 3.2 series in the first chart, land use reached its highest levels in the early 2000s and has declined since then, but is seeing a small rebound in recent years. Land use is still expanding across Sub-Saharan Africa and South America. As populations increase, and incomes rise, the <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/yields-habitat-loss">pressure on land will continue</a>.{ref}Williams, D. R., Clark, M., Buchanan, G. M., Ficetola, G. F., Rondinini, C., & Tilman, D. (2021). <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-020-00656-5">Proactive conservation to prevent habitat losses to agricultural expansion</a>. Nature Sustainability, 4(4), 314-322.{/ref} </p>   <p>This is why – as I argue <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/yields-habitat-loss"><strong>here</strong></a> – improvements in crop yields and agricultural productivity are so important. Reducing land pressures by <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/land-use-diets">reducing meat consumption</a>, and land dedicated to biofuels is also vital.{ref}Searchinger, T. D., Wirsenius, S., Beringer, T., & Dumas, P. (2018). <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0757-z">Assessing the efficiency of changes in land use for mitigating climate change</a>. <em>Nature</em>, <em>564</em>(7735), 249-253.{/ref}</p>   <p>Fail to invest in these improvements and we risk reversing this global trend. We may end up with a short-lived and temporary peak. Make it a priority, and we can accelerate reaching this peak everywhere.</p> </div>   <div class="wp-block-column"></div> </div>   <hr class="wp-block-separator"/>   <h5>Keep reading at <em>Our World in Data</em>...</h5>       <hr class="wp-block-separator"/>   <h5>Acknowledgments</h5>   <p>I would like to thank Charles Taylor, James Rising, Erle Ellis, and Kees Klein Goldewijk for their suggestions and review of this article. I would also like to thank my colleagues, Max Roser, Pablo Rosado, and Bastian Herre for their editorial feedback.</p>   <p><strong>Article updates</strong></p>   <p>This article was first published on 30 May 2022. It was extended on 2 June 2022.</p>

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                        "text": "Humans have been reshaping the planet\u2019s land for millennia by clearing wildlands to grow crops and raise livestock. As a result, humans have ",
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                        "text": "This has come at a huge cost to the planet\u2019s biodiversity. In the last 50,000 years \u2013 and as humans settled in regions around the world \u2013 wild mammal biomass ",
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                        "text": "This expansion of agricultural land has now come to an end. After millennia, we have passed the peak, and in recent years global agricultural land use has declined.",
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                        "text": "\u2018Peak agricultural land\u2019",
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                                "text": "Agricultural land is the total of arable land that is used to grow crops, and pasture used to raise livestock.",
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                                "text": "Measuring exactly how much land we use for agriculture is difficult. If all farms were simply rows of densely-planted crops it would be straightforward to calculate how much land is being used. Just draw a square around the field and calculate its area. But across much of the world, this is not how farming looks: it\u2019s often low-density; mixed in with rural villages; in ",
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                                "text": " that are somewhere between a garden and a farm. Where farmland starts and ends is not always clear-cut.",
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                                "text": "Here I have brought together three analyses of the change in global land use \u2013 these are shown in the visualization.{ref}Global agricultural land use is shown for three sources:",
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                                "text": "Klein Goldewijk, K., Beusen, A., Doelman, J., and Stehfest, E. (2017). ",
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                                        "text": "Anthropogenic land use estimates for the Holocene \u2013 HYDE 3.2",
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                            {
                                "text": ", Earth System Science Data, 9, 927\u2013953.",
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                                "text": "Taylor, C. A., & Rising, J. (2021). ",
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                                "url": "https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3c6d",
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                                        "text": "Tipping point dynamics in global land use",
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                            },
                            {
                                "text": ". Environmental Research Letters, 16(12), 125012.",
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                                "text": "Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Available at: ",
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                                "url": "https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/RL",
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                                "text": ".{/ref} Each uses a different methodology, as explained in the chart. The UN FAO produces the bedrock data for each of these analyses from 1961 onwards; however, the researchers apply their own methodologies on top and extend this series further back in time.{ref}The work from Taylor and Rising relies on underlying data from HYDE 3.2 (which, in turn, uses data from the UN FAO from 1961 onwards. Taylor and Rising exclude agricultural lands which are categorized as \"protected lands\" in UNEP-WCMC's ",
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                                "text": " (WDPA). These protected lands can sometimes overlap with croplands and pasture where farming practices are more highly restricted. This series from Taylor and Rising would therefore be considered the lower-bound estimate of total agricultural land use.{/ref}",
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                                "text": " land is used for agriculture, and the time at which land use peaked. But they ",
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                                "text": "agree that we have passed the peak.\u00a0",
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                                "text": "This marks a historic moment in humanity\u2019s relationship to the planet; a crucial step in its protection of the world\u2019s ecosystems.",
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                                "text": "It shows that the future of food production does not need to follow the destructive path that it did in the past. If we continue on this path we will be able to restore space for the planet\u2019s wildlands and wildlife.{ref}Ellis, E. C. (2019). ",
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                                "url": "https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aax2608",
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                                        "text": "Sharing the land between nature and people",
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                                "text": ". Science, 364(6447), 1226-1228.{/ref}",
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                                "text": "{ref}Global agricultural land use is shown for three sources:",
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                                        "text": "Anthropogenic land use estimates for the Holocene \u2013 HYDE 3.2",
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                                "text": ", Earth System Science Data, 9, 927\u2013953.",
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                                "text": "Taylor, C. A., & Rising, J. (2021). ",
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                                "url": "https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3c6d",
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                                        "text": "Tipping point dynamics in global land use",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                            {
                                "text": ". Environmental Research Letters, 16(12), 125012.",
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                                "text": "Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Available at: ",
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                                "url": "https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/RL",
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                                        "text": "https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/RL",
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                                "text": ".{/ref}",
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                                "text": "Explore the interactive version of this chart:",
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                        "text": "A global decoupling of agricultural land and food production",
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                                "text": "Despite this reduction in agricultural land, the world has continued to produce more food. This is true of both crops and livestock.{ref}You can explore changes in production for any crop or animal product in our ",
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                                "text": "We see this decoupling in the chart that presents the UN FAO\u2019s data. It shows that global agricultural land \u2013 the green line \u2013 has peaked while agricultural production \u2013 the brown line \u2013 has continued to increase strongly, even after this peak.{ref}Agricultural production, here, is measured in constant 2015 international-dollars, which means it is adjusted for inflation. It captures the economic value of both crops and livestock, and includes both food and non-food products (such as biofuels) from agriculture.{/ref}\u00a0",
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                                "text": "When we break each agricultural component out individually or look at it in physical rather than monetary units, we find the same trend: a continued increase in output. You can explore this data for any crop or animal product in our ",
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                                "text": "This shows that feeding more people does not have to mean taking habitat away from other wildlife. This decoupling means that we can produce more while giving land ",
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                                        "text": "back",
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                                "text": " to nature at the same time.",
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                                "text": "Global agricultural land has peaked, but cropland has not",
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                                "text": "Global ",
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                                        "text": "pasture has peaked",
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                                "text": ". Global ",
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                                        "text": "cropland has not",
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                                "text": "This might come as a surprise as global meat consumption is increasing. How, then, can pasture for livestock have peaked and now be ",
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                                        "text": "falling",
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                                "text": "The world produces ",
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                                        "text": "three times as much",
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                                "text": " meat as it did 50 years ago. But how this meat is produced and what types of meat we eat have shifted. First, we produce a lot of pork and chicken which are not fed on pasture. ",
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                                "text": "Second, a lot of our beef production has moved from open pasture grazing towards more intensive farming methods; this has spared land. This presents an important dilemma: grain-fed livestock is often more land-efficient than pasture-fed livestock, so you need less land overall; but the biodiversity on grazing lands is often better than on intensive croplands.",
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                                "text": "What this means is that more and more animals are being fed from crops grown on croplands, rather than on pasture. In fact, almost half of the world\u2019s cropland is used to produce animal feed. Unfortunately, this conversion process from crops to meat is still ",
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                                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/land-use-diets#livestock-waste-a-lot-of-energy-and-protein-but-do-produce-more-nutrient-dense-protein-sources",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "an inefficient one",
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                                    }
                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ", meaning we need a lot of land to produce a small amount of food.",
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                            }
                        ],
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                        "value": [
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                                "text": "Biofuels, too, have added additional pressure on croplands, especially in countries such as the US and Brazil.",
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                                "children": [
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                                        "text": "Global decoupling of agricultural land and food production",
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                                "text": "{ref}Data on global agricultural land use and production is sourced from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Available at: ",
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                                "url": "https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/RL",
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                                        "text": "https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/RL",
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                                "text": ".{/ref}",
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                        "text": "Agricultural land use is still increasing in many countries \u2013 often at the expense of carbon-rich habitats",
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                                "text": "While this global picture is promising, there are several reasons why we should not be complacent about this development.",
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                                "text": "The first is that ",
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                                        "text": "agricultural land use has definitely not peaked everywhere",
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                                "text": ". Agricultural land use has decreased in some countries but ",
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                                        "text": "continues to increase",
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                                "text": " in others.",
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                                "text": "The second is the",
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                            {
                                "children": [
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                                        "text": " distribution of these changes in land use across the world",
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                            {
                                "text": ", and their implications for biodiversity loss and carbon emissions. The largest reductions in pasture have been across arid regions; temperate regions have also seen a reduction in recent decades; meanwhile, pasture has continued to expand in many tropical countries.{ref}Godde, C. M., Garnett, T., Thornton, P. K., Ash, A. J., & Herrero, M. (2018). ",
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                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211912417300391",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "Grazing systems expansion and intensification: drivers, dynamics, and trade-offs",
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                                "text": ".\u00a0",
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                            {
                                "children": [
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                                        "text": "Global Food Security",
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                                "text": ",\u00a0",
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                                "children": [
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                                        "text": "16",
                                        "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                            {
                                "text": ", 93-105.",
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                            {
                                "text": "Blaustein-Rejto, D., Blomqvist, L., McNamara, J., and de Kirby, K. (2019). ",
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                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://thebreakthrough.org/articles/achieving-peak-pasture",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "Achieving Peak Pasture: Shrinking Pasture's Footprint by Spreading the Livestock Revolution",
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                                "text": ". ",
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                            {
                                "children": [
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                                        "text": "The Breakthrough Institute",
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                            {
                                "text": ".{/ref} Indeed, as I have ",
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                            {
                                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/what-are-drivers-deforestation",
                                "children": [
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                                        "text": "covered elsewhere",
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                            },
                            {
                                "text": ", the expansion of grazing land for beef production is still the leading driver of global (and tropical) deforestation. ",
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                                "text": "The reason that this shift of pasturelands from arid and temperate to tropical regions is important is that the tropics are much richer in biodiversity and carbon. Over half of the world\u2019s species reside in tropical forests.{ref}Scheffers, B. R., Joppa, L. N., Pimm, S. L., & Laurance, W. F. (2012).\u00a0",
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                            {
                                "url": "https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169534712001231",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "What we know and don\u2019t know about Earth\u2019s missing biodiversity",
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                                "text": ".\u00a0",
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                                "children": [
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                                        "text": "Trends in Ecology & Evolution",
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                                "text": ", 27(9), 501-510.{/ref} Tropical forests are also large carbon sinks, and can store a lot of carbon per unit area.{ref}Lewis, S. L. (2006).",
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                                "url": "https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/abs/10.1098/rstb.2005.1711?casa_token=eEBuakjTygkAAAAA:vs3Rul_BqNvO3zDY3Xzv27phr6euMZyyqYMf68ltqi-__ji4Cn6MMVbiYt0MVabcdOsteEdrcbdFkT2u",
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                                        "text": "\u00a0Tropical forests and the changing earth system",
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                                "text": ".\u00a0",
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                                        "text": "Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences",
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                                "text": ", 361(1465), 195-210.{/ref}",
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                                "text": "The third, as I mentioned earlier, is that ",
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                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "global ",
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                                    {
                                        "children": [
                                            {
                                                "text": "croplands",
                                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
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                                    {
                                        "text": " are still expanding",
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                            {
                                "text": ". We see this in the chart. Other sources suggest that this rate of increase might be even faster.{ref}Potapov, P., Turubanova, S., Hansen, M. C., Tyukavina, A., Zalles, V., Khan, A., ... & Cortez, J. (2022). ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-021-00429-z",
                                "children": [
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                                        "text": "Global maps of cropland extent and change show accelerated cropland expansion in the twenty-first century",
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                                ],
                                "spanType": "span-link"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ". Nature Food, 3(1), 19-28.{/ref} The ",
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                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
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                                        "text": "World Resources Institute",
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                            {
                                "text": " looks at this research in more detail ",
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                            {
                                "url": "https://www.wri.org/insights/cropland-expansion-impacts-people-planet",
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                                        "text": "here",
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                                "text": ".",
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                                "text": "Finally, ",
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                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "quantifying the amount of land that is used for pasture is difficult",
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                            },
                            {
                                "text": ". Here we have focused on reported agricultural land use data from the UN FAO based on census data; country reports and expert estimates, but this comes with uncertainty.{ref}For more discussion on this topic, see Chapter 10 here: Searchinger, T., Waite, R., Hanson, C., Ranganathan, J., Dumas, P., Matthews, E., & Klirs, C. (2019). ",
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                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://www.wri.org/research/creating-sustainable-food-future",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "Creating a sustainable food future: A menu of solutions to feed nearly 10 billion people by 2050. ",
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                                "text": "Final report.",
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                                "text": "Blaustein-Rejto et al. (2019) also discuss data quality issues associated with the quantification of pasure in detail: Blaustein-Rejto, D., Blomqvist, L., McNamara, J., and de Kirby, K. (2019). ",
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                            {
                                "url": "https://thebreakthrough.org/articles/achieving-peak-pasture",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "Achieving Peak Pasture: Shrinking Pasture's Footprint by Spreading the Livestock Revolution",
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                                "text": ". ",
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                                        "text": "The Breakthrough Institute",
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                            {
                                "text": ".{/ref} Improving our measurement of agricultural land use \u2013 potentially from satellite data \u2013 would allow us to monitor changes more closely.",
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                        "text": "Continued decline is not guaranteed: the future of land use rests on the decisions we make today",
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                        "text": "Several sources suggest that global agricultural land use has fallen in recent decades. However, a continued decline is not guaranteed.",
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                        "text": "As we see from the HYDE 3.2 series in the first chart, land use reached its highest levels in the early 2000s and has declined since then, but is seeing a small rebound in recent years. Land use is still expanding across Sub-Saharan Africa and South America. As populations increase, and incomes rise, the ",
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                                "text": "pressure on land will continue",
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                        "text": ".{ref}Williams, D. R., Clark, M., Buchanan, G. M., Ficetola, G. F., Rondinini, C., & Tilman, D. (2021). ",
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                        "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-020-00656-5",
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                                "text": "Proactive conservation to prevent habitat losses to agricultural expansion",
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                        "text": ". Nature Sustainability, 4(4), 314-322.{/ref} ",
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                        "text": "This is why \u2013 as I argue ",
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                        "text": " \u2013 improvements in crop yields and agricultural productivity are so important. Reducing land pressures by ",
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                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/land-use-diets",
                        "children": [
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                                "text": "reducing meat consumption",
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                    {
                        "text": ", and land dedicated to biofuels is also vital.{ref}Searchinger, T. D., Wirsenius, S., Beringer, T., & Dumas, P. (2018). ",
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                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0757-z",
                        "children": [
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                                "text": "Assessing the efficiency of changes in land use for mitigating climate change",
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                        "text": ".\u00a0",
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                                "text": "Nature",
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                        "text": ",\u00a0",
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                        "children": [
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                                "text": "564",
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                        "text": "(7735), 249-253.{/ref}",
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                        "text": "Fail to invest in these improvements and we risk reversing this global trend. We may end up with a short-lived and temporary peak. Make it a priority, and we can accelerate reaching this peak everywhere.",
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                        "text": "Keep reading at ",
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                                "text": "Our World in Data",
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                        "text": "Acknowledgments",
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                        "text": "I would like to thank Charles Taylor, James Rising, Erle Ellis, and Kees Klein Goldewijk for their suggestions and review of this article. I would also like to thank my colleagues, Max Roser, Pablo Rosado, and Bastian Herre for their editorial feedback.",
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                                "text": "Article updates",
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                        "text": "This article was first published on 30 May 2022. It was extended on 2 June 2022.",
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        ],
        "type": "article",
        "title": "After millennia of agricultural expansion, the world has passed \u2018peak agricultural land\u2019",
        "authors": [
            "Hannah Ritchie"
        ],
        "excerpt": "The world produces more food than ever, but the amount of land we use is now falling. This means we can feed more people while restoring wild habitat.",
        "dateline": "May 30, 2022",
        "subtitle": "The world produces more food than ever, but the amount of land we use is now falling. This means we can feed more people while restoring wild habitat.",
        "sidebar-toc": false,
        "featured-image": "Peak-land-thumbnail-1.png"
    },
    "createdAt": "2022-03-31T10:48:47.000Z",
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2022-05-30 10:00:00

2024-03-05 18:28:48

1UzF0AW_AGYFZwSk6nzqlItP8sTLVUE27or-ko0GGME0

[
    "Hannah Ritchie"
]

The world produces more food than ever, but the amount of land we use is now falling. This means we can feed more people while restoring wild habitat.

2022-03-31 10:48:47

2023-01-24 13:29:15

https://ourworldindata.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Peak-land-thumbnail-1.png

{}

Humans have been reshaping the planet’s land for millennia by clearing wildlands to grow crops and raise livestock. As a result, humans have [cleared one-third of the world’s forests](https://ourworldindata.org/world-lost-one-third-forests) and two-thirds of wild grasslands since the end of the last ice age. This has come at a huge cost to the planet’s biodiversity. In the last 50,000 years – and as humans settled in regions around the world – wild mammal biomass [has declined by 85%](https://ourworldindata.org/wild-mammal-decline). Expanding agriculture has been the biggest driver of the destruction of the world’s wildlands. This expansion of agricultural land has now come to an end. After millennia, we have passed the peak, and in recent years global agricultural land use has declined. ## ‘Peak agricultural land’ Agricultural land is the total of arable land that is used to grow crops, and pasture used to raise livestock. Measuring exactly how much land we use for agriculture is difficult. If all farms were simply rows of densely-planted crops it would be straightforward to calculate how much land is being used. Just draw a square around the field and calculate its area. But across much of the world, this is not how farming looks: it’s often low-density; mixed in with rural villages; in [tiny smallholdings](https://ourworldindata.org/farm-size) that are somewhere between a garden and a farm. Where farmland starts and ends is not always clear-cut. As a result, there is a range of estimates for how much land is used for agriculture. Here I have brought together three analyses of the change in global land use – these are shown in the visualization.{ref}Global agricultural land use is shown for three sources: ##### Klein Goldewijk, K., Beusen, A., Doelman, J., and Stehfest, E. (2017). [Anthropogenic land use estimates for the Holocene – HYDE 3.2](https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/9/927/2017/essd-9-927-2017.html), Earth System Science Data, 9, 927–953. Taylor, C. A., & Rising, J. (2021). [Tipping point dynamics in global land use](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3c6d). Environmental Research Letters, 16(12), 125012. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Available at: [https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/RL](https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/RL).{/ref} Each uses a different methodology, as explained in the chart. The UN FAO produces the bedrock data for each of these analyses from 1961 onwards; however, the researchers apply their own methodologies on top and extend this series further back in time.{ref}The work from Taylor and Rising relies on underlying data from HYDE 3.2 (which, in turn, uses data from the UN FAO from 1961 onwards. Taylor and Rising exclude agricultural lands which are categorized as "protected lands" in UNEP-WCMC's [World Database on Protected Areas](https://www.protectedplanet.net/en) (WDPA). These protected lands can sometimes overlap with croplands and pasture where farming practices are more highly restricted. This series from Taylor and Rising would therefore be considered the lower-bound estimate of total agricultural land use.{/ref} As you can see, they disagree on _how much_ land is used for agriculture, and the time at which land use peaked. But they _do _agree that we have passed the peak. This marks a historic moment in humanity’s relationship to the planet; a crucial step in its protection of the world’s ecosystems. It shows that the future of food production does not need to follow the destructive path that it did in the past. If we continue on this path we will be able to restore space for the planet’s wildlands and wildlife.{ref}Ellis, E. C. (2019). [Sharing the land between nature and people](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aax2608). Science, 364(6447), 1226-1228.{/ref} ###### **The world has passed peak agricultural land**{ref}Global agricultural land use is shown for three sources: Klein Goldewijk, K., Beusen, A., Doelman, J., and Stehfest, E. (2017). [Anthropogenic land use estimates for the Holocene – HYDE 3.2](https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/9/927/2017/essd-9-927-2017.html), Earth System Science Data, 9, 927–953. Taylor, C. A., & Rising, J. (2021). [Tipping point dynamics in global land use](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3c6d). Environmental Research Letters, 16(12), 125012. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Available at: [https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/RL](https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/RL).{/ref} <Image filename="Peak-agricultural-land.png" alt=""/> ##### Explore the interactive version of this chart: ### https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-peak-agricultural-land?country=~OWID_WRL ## A global decoupling of agricultural land and food production Despite this reduction in agricultural land, the world has continued to produce more food. This is true of both crops and livestock.{ref}You can explore changes in production for any crop or animal product in our [Global Food Explorer](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/global-food).{/ref} We see this decoupling in the chart that presents the UN FAO’s data. It shows that global agricultural land – the green line – has peaked while agricultural production – the brown line – has continued to increase strongly, even after this peak.{ref}Agricultural production, here, is measured in constant 2015 international-dollars, which means it is adjusted for inflation. It captures the economic value of both crops and livestock, and includes both food and non-food products (such as biofuels) from agriculture.{/ref} When we break each agricultural component out individually or look at it in physical rather than monetary units, we find the same trend: a continued increase in output. You can explore this data for any crop or animal product in our [Global Food Explorer](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/global-food). This shows that feeding more people does not have to mean taking habitat away from other wildlife. This decoupling means that we can produce more while giving land _back_ to nature at the same time. #### Global agricultural land has peaked, but cropland has not Global [pasture has peaked](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-pasture?country=~OWID_WRL). Global [cropland has not](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-cropland?country=~OWID_WRL). This might come as a surprise as global meat consumption is increasing. How, then, can pasture for livestock have peaked and now be _falling_? The world produces [three times as much](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-meat-production) meat as it did 50 years ago. But how this meat is produced and what types of meat we eat have shifted. First, we produce a lot of pork and chicken which are not fed on pasture. Second, a lot of our beef production has moved from open pasture grazing towards more intensive farming methods; this has spared land. This presents an important dilemma: grain-fed livestock is often more land-efficient than pasture-fed livestock, so you need less land overall; but the biodiversity on grazing lands is often better than on intensive croplands. What this means is that more and more animals are being fed from crops grown on croplands, rather than on pasture. In fact, almost half of the world’s cropland is used to produce animal feed. Unfortunately, this conversion process from crops to meat is still [an inefficient one](https://ourworldindata.org/land-use-diets#livestock-waste-a-lot-of-energy-and-protein-but-do-produce-more-nutrient-dense-protein-sources), meaning we need a lot of land to produce a small amount of food. Biofuels, too, have added additional pressure on croplands, especially in countries such as the US and Brazil. ###### **Global decoupling of agricultural land and food production**{ref}Data on global agricultural land use and production is sourced from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Available at: [https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/RL](https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/RL).{/ref} <Image filename="Global-decoupling-land-and-food.png" alt=""/> ## Agricultural land use is still increasing in many countries – often at the expense of carbon-rich habitats While this global picture is promising, there are several reasons why we should not be complacent about this development. The first is that **agricultural land use has definitely not peaked everywhere**. Agricultural land use has decreased in some countries but [continues to increase](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/agriculture-more-less-land) in others. The second is the** distribution of these changes in land use across the world**, and their implications for biodiversity loss and carbon emissions. The largest reductions in pasture have been across arid regions; temperate regions have also seen a reduction in recent decades; meanwhile, pasture has continued to expand in many tropical countries.{ref}Godde, C. M., Garnett, T., Thornton, P. K., Ash, A. J., & Herrero, M. (2018). [Grazing systems expansion and intensification: drivers, dynamics, and trade-offs](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211912417300391). _Global Food Security_, _16_, 93-105. Blaustein-Rejto, D., Blomqvist, L., McNamara, J., and de Kirby, K. (2019). [Achieving Peak Pasture: Shrinking Pasture's Footprint by Spreading the Livestock Revolution](https://thebreakthrough.org/articles/achieving-peak-pasture). _The Breakthrough Institute_.{/ref} Indeed, as I have [covered elsewhere](https://ourworldindata.org/what-are-drivers-deforestation), the expansion of grazing land for beef production is still the leading driver of global (and tropical) deforestation. The reason that this shift of pasturelands from arid and temperate to tropical regions is important is that the tropics are much richer in biodiversity and carbon. Over half of the world’s species reside in tropical forests.{ref}Scheffers, B. R., Joppa, L. N., Pimm, S. L., & Laurance, W. F. (2012). [What we know and don’t know about Earth’s missing biodiversity](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169534712001231). _Trends in Ecology & Evolution_, 27(9), 501-510.{/ref} Tropical forests are also large carbon sinks, and can store a lot of carbon per unit area.{ref}Lewis, S. L. (2006).[ Tropical forests and the changing earth system](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/abs/10.1098/rstb.2005.1711?casa_token=eEBuakjTygkAAAAA:vs3Rul_BqNvO3zDY3Xzv27phr6euMZyyqYMf68ltqi-__ji4Cn6MMVbiYt0MVabcdOsteEdrcbdFkT2u). _Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences_, 361(1465), 195-210.{/ref} The third, as I mentioned earlier, is that **global _croplands_ are still expanding**. We see this in the chart. Other sources suggest that this rate of increase might be even faster.{ref}Potapov, P., Turubanova, S., Hansen, M. C., Tyukavina, A., Zalles, V., Khan, A., ... & Cortez, J. (2022). [Global maps of cropland extent and change show accelerated cropland expansion in the twenty-first century](https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-021-00429-z). Nature Food, 3(1), 19-28.{/ref} The _World Resources Institute_ looks at this research in more detail [here](https://www.wri.org/insights/cropland-expansion-impacts-people-planet). Finally, **quantifying the amount of land that is used for pasture is difficult**. Here we have focused on reported agricultural land use data from the UN FAO based on census data; country reports and expert estimates, but this comes with uncertainty.{ref}For more discussion on this topic, see Chapter 10 here: Searchinger, T., Waite, R., Hanson, C., Ranganathan, J., Dumas, P., Matthews, E., & Klirs, C. (2019). [Creating a sustainable food future: A menu of solutions to feed nearly 10 billion people by 2050. ](https://www.wri.org/research/creating-sustainable-food-future)Final report. Blaustein-Rejto et al. (2019) also discuss data quality issues associated with the quantification of pasure in detail: Blaustein-Rejto, D., Blomqvist, L., McNamara, J., and de Kirby, K. (2019). [Achieving Peak Pasture: Shrinking Pasture's Footprint by Spreading the Livestock Revolution](https://thebreakthrough.org/articles/achieving-peak-pasture). _The Breakthrough Institute_.{/ref} Improving our measurement of agricultural land use – potentially from satellite data – would allow us to monitor changes more closely. <Chart url="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-cropland?country=~OWID_WRL"/> ## Continued decline is not guaranteed: the future of land use rests on the decisions we make today Several sources suggest that global agricultural land use has fallen in recent decades. However, a continued decline is not guaranteed. As we see from the HYDE 3.2 series in the first chart, land use reached its highest levels in the early 2000s and has declined since then, but is seeing a small rebound in recent years. Land use is still expanding across Sub-Saharan Africa and South America. As populations increase, and incomes rise, the [pressure on land will continue](https://ourworldindata.org/yields-habitat-loss).{ref}Williams, D. R., Clark, M., Buchanan, G. M., Ficetola, G. F., Rondinini, C., & Tilman, D. (2021). [Proactive conservation to prevent habitat losses to agricultural expansion](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-020-00656-5). Nature Sustainability, 4(4), 314-322.{/ref} This is why – as I argue [**here**](https://ourworldindata.org/yields-habitat-loss) – improvements in crop yields and agricultural productivity are so important. Reducing land pressures by [reducing meat consumption](https://ourworldindata.org/land-use-diets), and land dedicated to biofuels is also vital.{ref}Searchinger, T. D., Wirsenius, S., Beringer, T., & Dumas, P. (2018). [Assessing the efficiency of changes in land use for mitigating climate change](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0757-z). _Nature_, _564_(7735), 249-253.{/ref} Fail to invest in these improvements and we risk reversing this global trend. We may end up with a short-lived and temporary peak. Make it a priority, and we can accelerate reaching this peak everywhere. #### Keep reading at _Our World in Data_... ### https://ourworldindata.org/world-lost-one-third-forests ### https://ourworldindata.org/yields-habitat-loss ### https://ourworldindata.org/what-are-drivers-deforestation ### https://ourworldindata.org/global-deforestation-peak #### Acknowledgments I would like to thank Charles Taylor, James Rising, Erle Ellis, and Kees Klein Goldewijk for their suggestions and review of this article. I would also like to thank my colleagues, Max Roser, Pablo Rosado, and Bastian Herre for their editorial feedback. **Article updates** This article was first published on 30 May 2022. It was extended on 2 June 2022.

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        "rendered": "\n<p>Humans have been reshaping the planet\u2019s land for millennia by clearing wildlands to grow crops and raise livestock. As a result, humans have <a href=\"https://ourworldindata.org/world-lost-one-third-forests\">cleared one-third of the world\u2019s forests</a> and two-thirds of wild grasslands since the end of the last ice age.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>This has come at a huge cost to the planet\u2019s biodiversity. In the last 50,000 years \u2013 and as humans settled in regions around the world \u2013 wild mammal biomass <a href=\"https://ourworldindata.org/wild-mammal-decline\">has declined by 85%</a>.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>Expanding agriculture has been the biggest driver of the destruction of the world\u2019s wildlands.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>This expansion of agricultural land has now come to an end. After millennia, we have passed the peak, and in recent years global agricultural land use has declined.</p>\n\n\n\n<h3>\u2018Peak agricultural land\u2019</h3>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\">\n<p>Agricultural land is the total of arable land that is used to grow crops, and pasture used to raise livestock.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>Measuring exactly how much land we use for agriculture is difficult. If all farms were simply rows of densely-planted crops it would be straightforward to calculate how much land is being used. Just draw a square around the field and calculate its area. But across much of the world, this is not how farming looks: it\u2019s often low-density; mixed in with rural villages; in <a href=\"https://ourworldindata.org/farm-size\">tiny smallholdings</a> that are somewhere between a garden and a farm. Where farmland starts and ends is not always clear-cut.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>As a result, there is a range of estimates for how much land is used for agriculture.\u00a0</p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here I have brought together three analyses of the change in global land use \u2013 these are shown in the visualization.{ref}Global agricultural land use is shown for three sources:</p>\n\n\n\n<h5>Klein Goldewijk, K., Beusen, A., Doelman, J., and Stehfest, E. (2017). <a href=\"https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/9/927/2017/essd-9-927-2017.html\">Anthropogenic land use estimates for the Holocene \u2013 HYDE 3.2</a>, Earth System Science Data, 9, 927\u2013953.<br></h5>\n\n\n\n<p>Taylor, C. A., &amp; Rising, J. (2021). <a href=\"https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3c6d\">Tipping point dynamics in global land use</a>. Environmental Research Letters, 16(12), 125012.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Available at: <a href=\"https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/RL\">https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/RL</a>.{/ref} Each uses a different methodology, as explained in the chart. The UN FAO produces the bedrock data for each of these analyses from 1961 onwards; however, the researchers apply their own methodologies on top and extend this series further back in time.{ref}The work from Taylor and Rising relies on underlying data from HYDE 3.2 (which, in turn, uses data from the UN FAO from 1961 onwards. Taylor and Rising exclude agricultural lands which are categorized as &#8220;protected lands&#8221; in UNEP-WCMC&#8217;s <a href=\"https://www.protectedplanet.net/en\">World Database on Protected Areas</a> (WDPA). These protected lands can sometimes overlap with croplands and pasture where farming practices are more highly restricted. This series from Taylor and Rising would therefore be considered the lower-bound estimate of total agricultural land use.{/ref}</p>\n\n\n\n<p>As you can see, they disagree on <em>how much</em> land is used for agriculture, and the time at which land use peaked. But they <em>do </em>agree that we have passed the peak.&nbsp;</p>\n\n\n\n<p>This marks a historic moment in humanity\u2019s relationship to the planet; a crucial step in its protection of the world\u2019s ecosystems.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>It shows that the future of food production does not need to follow the destructive path that it did in the past. If we continue on this path we will be able to restore space for the planet\u2019s wildlands and wildlife.{ref}Ellis, E. C. (2019). <a href=\"https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aax2608\">Sharing the land between nature and people</a>. Science, 364(6447), 1226-1228.{/ref}</p>\n</div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\">\n<h6><strong>The world has passed peak agricultural land</strong>{ref}Global agricultural land use is shown for three sources:<br><br>Klein Goldewijk, K., Beusen, A., Doelman, J., and Stehfest, E. (2017). <a href=\"https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/9/927/2017/essd-9-927-2017.html\">Anthropogenic land use estimates for the Holocene \u2013 HYDE 3.2</a>, Earth System Science Data, 9, 927\u2013953.<br><br>Taylor, C. A., &amp; Rising, J. (2021). <a href=\"https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac3c6d\">Tipping point dynamics in global land use</a>. Environmental Research Letters, 16(12), 125012.<br><br>Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Available at: <a href=\"https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/RL\">https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/RL</a>.{/ref}</h6>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"800\" height=\"540\" src=\"https://owid.cloud/app/uploads/2022/06/Peak-agricultural-land-800x540.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-51666\" srcset=\"https://owid.cloud/app/uploads/2022/06/Peak-agricultural-land-800x540.png 800w, https://owid.cloud/app/uploads/2022/06/Peak-agricultural-land-400x270.png 400w, https://owid.cloud/app/uploads/2022/06/Peak-agricultural-land-150x101.png 150w, https://owid.cloud/app/uploads/2022/06/Peak-agricultural-land-768x519.png 768w, https://owid.cloud/app/uploads/2022/06/Peak-agricultural-land-1536x1038.png 1536w, https://owid.cloud/app/uploads/2022/06/Peak-agricultural-land.png 1899w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" /></figure>\n\n\n\n<h5>Explore the interactive version of this chart:</h5>\n\n\n    <block type=\"prominent-link\" style=\"is-style-thin\">\n        <link-url>https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-peak-agricultural-land?country=~OWID_WRL</link-url>\n        <title></title>\n        <content>\n\n<p></p>\n\n</content>\n        <figure></figure>\n    </block></div>\n</div>\n\n\n\n<h3>A global decoupling of agricultural land and food production</h3>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\">\n<p>Despite this reduction in agricultural land, the world has continued to produce more food. This is true of both crops and livestock.{ref}You can explore changes in production for any crop or animal product in our <a href=\"https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/global-food\">Global Food Explorer</a>.{/ref}</p>\n\n\n\n<p>We see this decoupling in the chart that presents the UN FAO\u2019s data. It shows that global agricultural land \u2013 the green line \u2013 has peaked while agricultural production \u2013 the brown line \u2013 has continued to increase strongly, even after this peak.{ref}Agricultural production, here, is measured in constant 2015 international-dollars, which means it is adjusted for inflation. It captures the economic value of both crops and livestock, and includes both food and non-food products (such as biofuels) from agriculture.{/ref}&nbsp;</p>\n\n\n\n<p>When we break each agricultural component out individually or look at it in physical rather than monetary units, we find the same trend: a continued increase in output. You can explore this data for any crop or animal product in our <a href=\"https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/global-food\">Global Food Explorer</a>. </p>\n\n\n\n<p>This shows that feeding more people does not have to mean taking habitat away from other wildlife. This decoupling means that we can produce more while giving land <em>back</em> to nature at the same time.</p>\n\n\n\t<block type=\"help\">\n\t\t<content>\n\n<h4>Global agricultural land has peaked, but cropland has not</h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Global <a href=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-pasture?country=~OWID_WRL\">pasture has peaked</a>. Global <a href=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-cropland?country=~OWID_WRL\">cropland has not</a>.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>This might come as a surprise as global meat consumption is increasing. How, then, can pasture for livestock have peaked and now be <em>falling</em>? </p>\n\n\n\n<p>The world produces <a href=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-meat-production\">three times as much</a> meat as it did 50 years ago. But how this meat is produced and what types of meat we eat have shifted. First, we produce a lot of pork and chicken which are not fed on pasture. </p>\n\n\n\n<p>Second, a lot of our beef production has moved from open pasture grazing towards more intensive farming methods; this has spared land. This presents an important dilemma: grain-fed livestock is often more land-efficient than pasture-fed livestock, so you need less land overall; but the biodiversity on grazing lands is often better than on intensive croplands.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>What this means is that more and more animals are being fed from crops grown on croplands, rather than on pasture. In fact, almost half of the world\u2019s cropland is used to produce animal feed. Unfortunately, this conversion process from crops to meat is still <a href=\"https://ourworldindata.org/land-use-diets#livestock-waste-a-lot-of-energy-and-protein-but-do-produce-more-nutrient-dense-protein-sources\">an inefficient one</a>, meaning we need a lot of land to produce a small amount of food.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>Biofuels, too, have added additional pressure on croplands, especially in countries such as the US and Brazil.</p>\n\n</content>\n\t</block></div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\">\n<h6><strong>Global decoupling of agricultural land and food production</strong>{ref}Data on global agricultural land use and production is sourced from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Available at: <a href=\"https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/RL\">https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/RL</a>.{/ref}</h6>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1700\" height=\"1260\" src=\"https://owid.cloud/app/uploads/2022/05/Global-decoupling-land-and-food.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-51667\" srcset=\"https://owid.cloud/app/uploads/2022/05/Global-decoupling-land-and-food.png 1700w, https://owid.cloud/app/uploads/2022/05/Global-decoupling-land-and-food-400x296.png 400w, https://owid.cloud/app/uploads/2022/05/Global-decoupling-land-and-food-742x550.png 742w, https://owid.cloud/app/uploads/2022/05/Global-decoupling-land-and-food-150x111.png 150w, https://owid.cloud/app/uploads/2022/05/Global-decoupling-land-and-food-768x569.png 768w, https://owid.cloud/app/uploads/2022/05/Global-decoupling-land-and-food-1536x1138.png 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1700px) 100vw, 1700px\" /></figure>\n</div>\n</div>\n\n\n\n<h3>Agricultural land use is still increasing in many countries \u2013 often at the expense of carbon-rich habitats</h3>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\">\n<p>While this global picture is promising, there are several reasons why we should not be complacent about this development.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>The first is that <strong>agricultural land use has definitely not peaked everywhere</strong>. Agricultural land use has decreased in some countries but <a href=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/agriculture-more-less-land\">continues to increase</a> in others.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>The second is the<strong> distribution of these changes in land use across the world</strong>, and their implications for biodiversity loss and carbon emissions. The largest reductions in pasture have been across arid regions; temperate regions have also seen a reduction in recent decades; meanwhile, pasture has continued to expand in many tropical countries.{ref}Godde, C. M., Garnett, T., Thornton, P. K., Ash, A. J., &amp; Herrero, M. (2018). <a href=\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211912417300391\">Grazing systems expansion and intensification: drivers, dynamics, and trade-offs</a>.\u00a0<em>Global Food Security</em>,\u00a0<em>16</em>, 93-105.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>Blaustein-Rejto, D., Blomqvist, L., McNamara, J., and de Kirby, K. (2019). <a href=\"https://thebreakthrough.org/articles/achieving-peak-pasture\">Achieving Peak Pasture: Shrinking Pasture&#8217;s Footprint by Spreading the Livestock Revolution</a>. <em>The Breakthrough Institute</em>.{/ref} Indeed, as I have <a href=\"https://ourworldindata.org/what-are-drivers-deforestation\">covered elsewhere</a>, the expansion of grazing land for beef production is still the leading driver of global (and tropical) deforestation. </p>\n\n\n\n<p>The reason that this shift of pasturelands from arid and temperate to tropical regions is important is that the tropics are much richer in biodiversity and carbon. Over half of the world\u2019s species reside in tropical forests.{ref}Scheffers, B. R., Joppa, L. N., Pimm, S. L., &amp; Laurance, W. F. (2012).&nbsp;<a href=\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169534712001231\">What we know and don\u2019t know about Earth\u2019s missing biodiversity</a>.&nbsp;<em>Trends in Ecology &amp; Evolution</em>, 27(9), 501-510.{/ref} Tropical forests are also large carbon sinks, and can store a lot of carbon per unit area.{ref}Lewis, S. L. (2006).<a href=\"https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/abs/10.1098/rstb.2005.1711?casa_token=eEBuakjTygkAAAAA:vs3Rul_BqNvO3zDY3Xzv27phr6euMZyyqYMf68ltqi-__ji4Cn6MMVbiYt0MVabcdOsteEdrcbdFkT2u\">&nbsp;Tropical forests and the changing earth system</a>.&nbsp;<em>Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences</em>, 361(1465), 195-210.{/ref}</p>\n\n\n\n<p>The third, as I mentioned earlier, is that <strong>global <em>croplands</em> are still expanding</strong>. We see this in the chart. Other sources suggest that this rate of increase might be even faster.{ref}Potapov, P., Turubanova, S., Hansen, M. C., Tyukavina, A., Zalles, V., Khan, A., &#8230; &amp; Cortez, J. (2022). <a href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-021-00429-z\">Global maps of cropland extent and change show accelerated cropland expansion in the twenty-first century</a>. Nature Food, 3(1), 19-28.{/ref} The <em>World Resources Institute</em> looks at this research in more detail <a href=\"https://www.wri.org/insights/cropland-expansion-impacts-people-planet\">here</a>.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>Finally, <strong>quantifying the amount of land that is used for pasture is difficult</strong>. Here we have focused on reported agricultural land use data from the UN FAO based on census data; country reports and expert estimates, but this comes with uncertainty.{ref}For more discussion on this topic, see Chapter 10 here: Searchinger, T., Waite, R., Hanson, C., Ranganathan, J., Dumas, P., Matthews, E., &amp; Klirs, C. (2019). <a href=\"https://www.wri.org/research/creating-sustainable-food-future\">Creating a sustainable food future: A menu of solutions to feed nearly 10 billion people by 2050. </a>Final report.<br><br>Blaustein-Rejto et al. (2019) also discuss data quality issues associated with the quantification of pasure in detail: Blaustein-Rejto, D., Blomqvist, L., McNamara, J., and de Kirby, K. (2019). <a href=\"https://thebreakthrough.org/articles/achieving-peak-pasture\">Achieving Peak Pasture: Shrinking Pasture&#8217;s Footprint by Spreading the Livestock Revolution</a>. <em>The Breakthrough Institute</em>.{/ref} Improving our measurement of agricultural land use \u2013 potentially from satellite data \u2013 would allow us to monitor changes more closely.</p>\n</div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\">\n<iframe src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-cropland?country=~OWID_WRL\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\"></iframe>\n</div>\n</div>\n\n\n\n<h3>Continued decline is not guaranteed: the future of land use rests on the decisions we make today</h3>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\">\n<p>Several sources suggest that global agricultural land use has fallen in recent decades. However, a continued decline is not guaranteed.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>As we see from the HYDE 3.2 series in the first chart, land use reached its highest levels in the early 2000s and has declined since then, but is seeing a small rebound in recent years. Land use is still expanding across Sub-Saharan Africa and South America. As populations increase, and incomes rise, the <a href=\"https://ourworldindata.org/yields-habitat-loss\">pressure on land will continue</a>.{ref}Williams, D. R., Clark, M., Buchanan, G. M., Ficetola, G. F., Rondinini, C., &amp; Tilman, D. (2021). <a href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-020-00656-5\">Proactive conservation to prevent habitat losses to agricultural expansion</a>. Nature Sustainability, 4(4), 314-322.{/ref} </p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is why \u2013 as I argue <a href=\"https://ourworldindata.org/yields-habitat-loss\"><strong>here</strong></a> \u2013 improvements in crop yields and agricultural productivity are so important. Reducing land pressures by <a href=\"https://ourworldindata.org/land-use-diets\">reducing meat consumption</a>, and land dedicated to biofuels is also vital.{ref}Searchinger, T. D., Wirsenius, S., Beringer, T., &amp; Dumas, P. (2018). <a href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0757-z\">Assessing the efficiency of changes in land use for mitigating climate change</a>.&nbsp;<em>Nature</em>,&nbsp;<em>564</em>(7735), 249-253.{/ref}</p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fail to invest in these improvements and we risk reversing this global trend. We may end up with a short-lived and temporary peak. Make it a priority, and we can accelerate reaching this peak everywhere.</p>\n</div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\"></div>\n</div>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n\n\n\n<h5>Keep reading at <em>Our World in Data</em>&#8230;</h5>\n\n\n    <block type=\"prominent-link\" style=\"is-style-thin\">\n        <link-url>https://ourworldindata.org/world-lost-one-third-forests</link-url>\n        <title></title>\n        <content></content>\n        <figure></figure>\n    </block>\n\n    <block type=\"prominent-link\" style=\"is-style-thin\">\n        <link-url>https://ourworldindata.org/yields-habitat-loss</link-url>\n        <title></title>\n        <content></content>\n        <figure></figure>\n    </block>\n\n    <block type=\"prominent-link\" style=\"is-style-thin\">\n        <link-url>https://ourworldindata.org/what-are-drivers-deforestation</link-url>\n        <title></title>\n        <content></content>\n        <figure></figure>\n    </block>\n\n    <block type=\"prominent-link\" style=\"is-style-thin\">\n        <link-url>https://ourworldindata.org/global-deforestation-peak</link-url>\n        <title></title>\n        <content></content>\n        <figure></figure>\n    </block>\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n\n\n\n<h5>Acknowledgments</h5>\n\n\n\n<p>I would like to thank Charles Taylor, James Rising, Erle Ellis, and Kees Klein Goldewijk for their suggestions and review of this article. I would also like to thank my colleagues, Max Roser, Pablo Rosado, and Bastian Herre for their editorial feedback.</p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Article updates</strong></p>\n\n\n\n<p>This article was first published on 30 May 2022. It was extended on 2 June 2022.</p>\n",
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    "excerpt": {
        "rendered": "The world produces more food than ever, but the amount of land we use is now falling. This means we can feed more people while restoring wild habitat.",
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    "date_gmt": "2022-05-30T10:00:00",
    "modified": "2023-01-24T13:29:15",
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    "ping_status": "closed",
    "authors_name": [
        "Hannah Ritchie"
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    "modified_gmt": "2023-01-24T13:29:15",
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