posts: 40727
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| 40727 | Forest Transitions: why do we lose then regain forests? | untitled-reusable-block-253 | wp_block | publish | <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Globally we deforest around ten million hectares of forest every year.{ref}The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) <a href="https://fra-data.fao.org/WO/assessment/fra2020">Forest Resources Assessment</a> estimates global deforestation, averaged over the five-year period from 2015 to 2020 <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-deforestation?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=earliest..2015&country=~OWID_WRL&region=World">was 10 million hectares</a> per year.{/ref} That’s an area the size of Portugal every year. Around half of this deforestation is offset by regrowing forests, so overall we lose around five million hectares each year.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Nearly all – 95% – of this deforestation <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/deforestation#not-all-forest-loss-is-equal-what-is-the-difference-between-deforestation-and-forest-degradation">occurs in the tropics</a>. But not all of it is to produce products for local markets. 14% of deforestation is driven by consumers in the world’s richest countries – we import beef, vegetable oils, cocoa, coffee and paper that has been produced on deforested land.{ref}If we sum countries’ <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/imported-deforestation">imported deforestation</a> by <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/world-banks-income-groups?time=2013&country=IND~IDN">World Bank income group</a>, we find that high-income countries were responsible for 14% of imported deforestation; upper-middle income for 52%; lower-middle income for 23%; and low income for 11%.{/ref}</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>The scale of deforestation today might give us little hope for protecting our diverse forests. But by studying how forests have changed over time, there’s good reason to think that a way forward is possible.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:heading {"level":4} --> <h4>Many countries have lost then regained forest over millennia</h4> <!-- /wp:heading --> <!-- wp:columns {"className":"is-style-side-by-side"} --> <div class="wp-block-columns is-style-side-by-side"><!-- wp:column --> <div class="wp-block-column"><!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Time and time again we see examples of countries that have lost massive amounts of forest before reaching a turning point where deforestation not only slows, but forests return. In the chart we see historical reconstructions of country-level data on the share of land covered by forest (over decades, centuries or even millennia depending on the country). I have reconstructed long-term data using various studies which I’ve <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nYpao4e8Ai-P86jIUZ3r7X6-5MjZ7ZbG7TJQSO729Bg/edit?usp=sharing">documented here</a>.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Many countries have much less forest today than they did in the past. Nearly half (47%) of France was forested 1000 years ago; today that’s just under one-third (31.4%). The same is true of the United States; back in 1630 46% of the area of today’s USA was covered by forest. Today that’s just 34%. </p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>1000 years ago, 20% of Scotland’s land was covered by forest. By the mid-18th century, only 4% of the country was forested. But then the trend turned, and it moved from deforestation to reforestation. For the last two centuries forests have been growing and are almost back to where they were 1000 years ago.{ref}Mather, A. S. (2004). <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/00369220418737194">Forest transition theory and the reforesting of Scotland</a>. Scottish Geographical Journal, 120(1-2), 83-98.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>England is similar: in the late 11th century, 15% of the country was forested, and over the following centuries two-thirds were cut down. By the 19th century the forest area was reduced to a third of what it once was. But it was then that England reached its transition point and since then, forests have doubled in size.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>National Inventory of Woodland and Trees, England (2001). Forestry Commission. Available <a href="https://www.forestresearch.gov.uk/tools-and-resources/national-forest-inventory/national-inventory-of-woodland-and-trees/national-inventory-of-woodland-and-trees-england/">here</a>.{/ref}</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --></div> <!-- /wp:column --> <!-- wp:column --> <div class="wp-block-column"><!-- wp:html --> <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/forest-area-as-share-of-land-area?tab=chart&time=earliest..latest&country=England~Scotland~FRA~USA&region=World" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> <!-- /wp:html --></div> <!-- /wp:column --></div> <!-- /wp:columns --> <!-- wp:heading {"level":4} --> <h4>Forest Transitions: the U-shaped curve of forest change</h4> <!-- /wp:heading --> <!-- wp:columns {"className":"is-style-side-by-side"} --> <div class="wp-block-columns is-style-side-by-side"><!-- wp:column --> <div class="wp-block-column"><!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>What’s surprising is how consistent the pattern of change is across so many countries; as we’ve seen they all seem to follow a ‘U-shaped curve’. They first lose lots of forest, but reach a turning point and begin to regain it again.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>We can illustrate this through the so-called ‘Forest Transition Model’.{ref}This was first coined by Alexander Mather in the 1990s.<br><br>Mather, A. S. (1990). <em>Global forest resources</em>. Belhaven Press.{/ref} This is shown in the chart. It breaks the change in forests into four stages, explained by two variables: the amount of forest cover a region has, and the annual <em>change</em> in cover (how quickly it is losing or gaining forest).{ref}This diagram is adapted from the work of Hosonuma et al. (2012).<br><br>Hosonuma, N., Herold, M., De Sy, V., De Fries, R. S., Brockhaus, M., Verchot, L., ... & Romijn, E. (2012). <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044009">An assessment of deforestation and forest degradation drivers in developing countries</a>. <em>Environmental Research Letters</em>, <em>7</em>(4), 044009.{/ref} </p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong>Stage 1 – The Pre-Transition phase</strong> is defined by having high levels of forest cover <em>and</em> no or only very slow losses over time. Countries may lose some forest each year, but this is at a very slow rate. Mather refers to an annual loss of less than 0.25% as a small loss.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong>Stage 2 – The Early Transition phase </strong>is when countries start to lose forests very rapidly. Forest cover falls quickly, and the annual loss of forest is high. </p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong>Stage 3 – The Late Transition phase </strong>is when deforestation rates start to slow down again. At this stage, countries are still losing forest each year but at a lower rate than before. At the end of this stage, countries are approaching the ‘transition point’.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p><strong>Stage 4 – The Post-Transition phase </strong>is when countries have passed the ‘transition point’ and are now gaining forest again. At the beginning of this phase, the forest area is at its lowest point. But forest cover increases through reforestation. The annual change is now positive.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --></div> <!-- /wp:column --> <!-- wp:column --> <div class="wp-block-column"><!-- wp:image {"id":40726,"sizeSlug":"full","linkDestination":"none"} --> <figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img src="https://owid.cloud/app/uploads/2021/02/Forest-Transition-Model-01.png" alt="" class="wp-image-40726"/></figure> <!-- /wp:image --></div> <!-- /wp:column --></div> <!-- /wp:columns --> <!-- wp:heading {"level":4} --> <h4>Why do countries lose then regain forest?</h4> <!-- /wp:heading --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Many countries have followed this classic U-shaped pattern. What explains this?</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>There are two reasons that we cut down forests: </p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:list --> <ul><li><strong>Forest resources:</strong> we want the resources that they provide – the wood for fuel, building materials, or paper;</li><li><strong>Land:</strong> – we want to use the land they occupy for something else – farmland to grow crops; pasture to raise livestock; or land to build roads and cities.</li></ul> <!-- /wp:list --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Our demand for both of these initially increases as <a href="http://ourworldindata.org/world-population-growth">populations grow</a> and poor <a href="http://ourworldindata.org/economic-growth">people get richer</a>. We need more fuelwood to cook, more houses to live in, and importantly, more food to eat. </p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>But, as countries continue to get richer this demand slows. The rate of population growth tends to slow down. Instead of using wood for fuel we switch to <a href="http://ourworldindata.org/fossil-fuels">fossil fuels</a>, or hopefully, more <a href="http://ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy">renewables</a> and <a href="http://ourworldindata.org/nuclear-energy">nuclear energy</a>. Our <a href="http://ourworldindata.org/crop-yields">crop yields</a> improve and so we need less land for agriculture.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>This demand for resources and land is not always driven by domestic markets. As I mentioned earlier, 14% of deforestation today is driven by consumers in rich countries.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>The Forest Transition therefore tends to follow a ‘development’ pathway.{ref}Rudel, T. K. (1998). <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1549-0831.1998.tb00691.x?casa_token=OMU4CKP4U9sAAAAA:tiRG94F5rYxcpW2HNA04pPP4ws-YjHk8ehm0NL_iPid_1PehhYLpYTy9Q-sshDD7_Fn_fPFNE5c082uW">Is there a forest transition? Deforestation, reforestation, and development</a>. <em>Rural Sociology</em>, <em>63</em>(4), 533-552.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Rudel, T. K., Coomes, O. T., Moran, E., Achard, F., Angelsen, A., Xu, J., & Lambin, E. (2005). <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378004000809">Forest transitions: towards a global understanding of land use change</a>. <em>Global Environmental Change</em>, <em>15</em>(1), 23-31.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Cuaresma, J. C., Danylo, O., Fritz, S., McCallum, I., Obersteiner, M., See, L., & Walsh, B. (2017). <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/srep40678">Economic development and forest cover: evidence from satellite data</a>. <em>Scientific Reports</em>, <em>7</em>, 40678.{/ref} As a country achieves economic growth it moves through each of the four stages. This explains historical trends we see for countries across the world today. Rich countries – such as the USA, France and the United Kingdom – have had a long history of deforestation but are now passed the transition point. Most deforestation today occurs in low-to-middle income countries. </p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:heading {"level":4} --> <h4>Where are countries in the transition today?</h4> <!-- /wp:heading --> <!-- wp:columns {"className":"is-style-side-by-side"} --> <div class="wp-block-columns is-style-side-by-side"><!-- wp:column --> <div class="wp-block-column"><!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>If we look at where countries are in their transition today we can understand where we expect to lose and gain forest in the coming decades. Most of our future deforestation is going to come from countries in the pre- or early-transition phase.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Several studies have assessed the stage of countries across the world.{ref} Noriko Hosonuma et al. (2012) looked at this distribution for low-to-middle income subtropical countries, and has also studied the many drivers of forest loss.<br><br>Hosonuma, N., Herold, M., De Sy, V., De Fries, R. S., Brockhaus, M., Verchot, L., ... & Romijn, E. (2012). <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044009">An assessment of deforestation and forest degradation drivers in developing countries</a>. <em>Environmental Research Letters</em>, <em>7</em>(4), 044009.{/ref} The most recent analysis to date was published by Florence Pendrill and colleagues (2019) which looked at each country’s stage in the transition, the drivers of deforestation but also the role of international trade.{ref}Pendrill, F., Persson, U. M., Godar, J., & Kastner, T. (2019). <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab0d41">Deforestation displaced: trade in forest-risk commodities and the prospects for a global forest transition</a>. <em>Environmental Research Letters</em>, <em>14</em>(5), 055003.{/ref} To do this, they used the standard metrics discussed in our theory of forest transitions earlier: the share of land that is forested, and the annual <em>change</em> in forest cover.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>In the map we see their assessment of each country’s stage in the transition. Most of today’s richest countries – all of Europe, North America, Japan, South Korea – have passed the turning point and are now regaining forest. This is also true for major economies such as China and India. That these countries have recently regained forests is also visible in the long-term forest trends above.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Across sub-tropical countries we have a mix: many upper-middle income countries are now in the late transition phase. Brazil, for example, went through a period of very rapid deforestation in the 1980s and 90s (its ‘early transition’ phase) but its losses have slowed, meaning it is now in the late transition. Countries such as Indonesia, Myanmar, and the Democratic Republic of Congo are in the early transition phase and are losing forests quickly. Some of the world’s poorest countries are still in the pre-transition phase. In the coming decades this is where we might expect to see the most rapid loss of forests unless these countries take action to prevent it, and the world supports them in the goal.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --></div> <!-- /wp:column --> <!-- wp:column --> <div class="wp-block-column"><!-- wp:html --> <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/forest-transition-phase?stackMode=absolute&region=World" loading="lazy" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> <!-- /wp:html --></div> <!-- /wp:column --></div> <!-- /wp:columns --> | {
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"text": ". But not all of it is to produce products for local markets. 14% of deforestation is driven by consumers in the world\u2019s richest countries \u2013 we import beef, vegetable oils, cocoa, coffee and paper that has been produced on deforested land.{ref}If we sum countries\u2019 ",
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"text": "Time and time again we see examples of countries that have lost massive amounts of forest before reaching a turning point where deforestation not only slows, but forests return. In the chart we see historical reconstructions of country-level data on the share of land covered by forest (over decades, centuries or even millennia depending on the country). I have reconstructed long-term data using various studies which I\u2019ve ",
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"text": "Many countries have much less forest today than they did in the past. Nearly half (47%) of France was forested 1000 years ago; today that\u2019s just under one-third (31.4%). The same is true of the United States; back in 1630 46% of the area of today\u2019s USA was covered by forest. Today that\u2019s just 34%.\u00a0",
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"text": "1000 years ago, 20% of Scotland\u2019s land was covered by forest. By the mid-18th century, only 4% of the country was forested. But then the trend turned, and it moved from deforestation to reforestation. For the last two centuries forests have been growing and are almost back to where they were 1000 years ago.{ref}Mather, A. S. (2004). ",
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"text": "What\u2019s surprising is how consistent the pattern of change is across so many countries; as we\u2019ve seen they all seem to follow a \u2018U-shaped curve\u2019. They first lose lots of forest, but reach a turning point and begin to regain it again.",
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"text": "We can illustrate this through the so-called \u2018Forest Transition Model\u2019.{ref}This was first coined by Alexander Mather in the 1990s.",
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"text": ". Belhaven Press.{/ref} This is shown in the chart. It breaks the change in forests into four stages, explained by two variables: the amount of forest cover a region has, and the annual ",
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"text": " no or only very slow losses over time. Countries may lose some forest each year, but this is at a very slow rate. Mather refers to an annual loss of less than 0.25% as a small loss.",
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2021-02-15 06:40:22 | 2024-02-16 14:23:01 | [
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2021-02-15 06:40:40 | 2022-05-27 09:16:53 | {} |
Globally we deforest around ten million hectares of forest every year.{ref}The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) [Forest Resources Assessment](https://fra-data.fao.org/WO/assessment/fra2020) estimates global deforestation, averaged over the five-year period from 2015 to 2020 [was 10 million hectares](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-deforestation?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=earliest..2015&country=~OWID_WRL®ion=World) per year.{/ref} That’s an area the size of Portugal every year. Around half of this deforestation is offset by regrowing forests, so overall we lose around five million hectares each year. Nearly all – 95% – of this deforestation [occurs in the tropics](https://ourworldindata.org/deforestation#not-all-forest-loss-is-equal-what-is-the-difference-between-deforestation-and-forest-degradation). But not all of it is to produce products for local markets. 14% of deforestation is driven by consumers in the world’s richest countries – we import beef, vegetable oils, cocoa, coffee and paper that has been produced on deforested land.{ref}If we sum countries’ [imported deforestation](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/imported-deforestation) by [World Bank income group](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/world-banks-income-groups?time=2013&country=IND~IDN), we find that high-income countries were responsible for 14% of imported deforestation; upper-middle income for 52%; lower-middle income for 23%; and low income for 11%.{/ref} The scale of deforestation today might give us little hope for protecting our diverse forests. But by studying how forests have changed over time, there’s good reason to think that a way forward is possible. ## Many countries have lost then regained forest over millennia Time and time again we see examples of countries that have lost massive amounts of forest before reaching a turning point where deforestation not only slows, but forests return. In the chart we see historical reconstructions of country-level data on the share of land covered by forest (over decades, centuries or even millennia depending on the country). I have reconstructed long-term data using various studies which I’ve [documented here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nYpao4e8Ai-P86jIUZ3r7X6-5MjZ7ZbG7TJQSO729Bg/edit?usp=sharing). Many countries have much less forest today than they did in the past. Nearly half (47%) of France was forested 1000 years ago; today that’s just under one-third (31.4%). The same is true of the United States; back in 1630 46% of the area of today’s USA was covered by forest. Today that’s just 34%. 1000 years ago, 20% of Scotland’s land was covered by forest. By the mid-18th century, only 4% of the country was forested. But then the trend turned, and it moved from deforestation to reforestation. For the last two centuries forests have been growing and are almost back to where they were 1000 years ago.{ref}Mather, A. S. (2004). [Forest transition theory and the reforesting of Scotland](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/00369220418737194). Scottish Geographical Journal, 120(1-2), 83-98. England is similar: in the late 11th century, 15% of the country was forested, and over the following centuries two-thirds were cut down. By the 19th century the forest area was reduced to a third of what it once was. But it was then that England reached its transition point and since then, forests have doubled in size. National Inventory of Woodland and Trees, England (2001). Forestry Commission. Available [here](https://www.forestresearch.gov.uk/tools-and-resources/national-forest-inventory/national-inventory-of-woodland-and-trees/national-inventory-of-woodland-and-trees-england/).{/ref} <Chart url="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/forest-area-as-share-of-land-area?tab=chart&time=earliest..latest&country=England~Scotland~FRA~USA®ion=World"/> ## Forest Transitions: the U-shaped curve of forest change What’s surprising is how consistent the pattern of change is across so many countries; as we’ve seen they all seem to follow a ‘U-shaped curve’. They first lose lots of forest, but reach a turning point and begin to regain it again. We can illustrate this through the so-called ‘Forest Transition Model’.{ref}This was first coined by Alexander Mather in the 1990s. Mather, A. S. (1990). _Global forest resources_. Belhaven Press.{/ref} This is shown in the chart. It breaks the change in forests into four stages, explained by two variables: the amount of forest cover a region has, and the annual _change_ in cover (how quickly it is losing or gaining forest).{ref}This diagram is adapted from the work of Hosonuma et al. (2012). Hosonuma, N., Herold, M., De Sy, V., De Fries, R. S., Brockhaus, M., Verchot, L., ... & Romijn, E. (2012). [An assessment of deforestation and forest degradation drivers in developing countries](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044009). _Environmental Research Letters_, _7_(4), 044009.{/ref} **Stage 1 – The Pre-Transition phase** is defined by having high levels of forest cover _and_ no or only very slow losses over time. Countries may lose some forest each year, but this is at a very slow rate. Mather refers to an annual loss of less than 0.25% as a small loss. **Stage 2 – The Early Transition phase **is when countries start to lose forests very rapidly. Forest cover falls quickly, and the annual loss of forest is high. **Stage 3 – The Late Transition phase **is when deforestation rates start to slow down again. At this stage, countries are still losing forest each year but at a lower rate than before. At the end of this stage, countries are approaching the ‘transition point’. **Stage 4 – The Post-Transition phase **is when countries have passed the ‘transition point’ and are now gaining forest again. At the beginning of this phase, the forest area is at its lowest point. But forest cover increases through reforestation. The annual change is now positive. <Image filename="Forest-Transition-Model-01.png" alt=""/> ## Why do countries lose then regain forest? Many countries have followed this classic U-shaped pattern. What explains this? There are two reasons that we cut down forests: * **Forest resources:** we want the resources that they provide – the wood for fuel, building materials, or paper; * **Land:** – we want to use the land they occupy for something else – farmland to grow crops; pasture to raise livestock; or land to build roads and cities. Our demand for both of these initially increases as [populations grow](http://ourworldindata.org/world-population-growth) and poor [people get richer](http://ourworldindata.org/economic-growth). We need more fuelwood to cook, more houses to live in, and importantly, more food to eat. But, as countries continue to get richer this demand slows. The rate of population growth tends to slow down. Instead of using wood for fuel we switch to [fossil fuels](http://ourworldindata.org/fossil-fuels), or hopefully, more [renewables](http://ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy) and [nuclear energy](http://ourworldindata.org/nuclear-energy). Our [crop yields](http://ourworldindata.org/crop-yields) improve and so we need less land for agriculture. This demand for resources and land is not always driven by domestic markets. As I mentioned earlier, 14% of deforestation today is driven by consumers in rich countries. The Forest Transition therefore tends to follow a ‘development’ pathway.{ref}Rudel, T. K. (1998). [Is there a forest transition? Deforestation, reforestation, and development](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1549-0831.1998.tb00691.x?casa_token=OMU4CKP4U9sAAAAA:tiRG94F5rYxcpW2HNA04pPP4ws-YjHk8ehm0NL_iPid_1PehhYLpYTy9Q-sshDD7_Fn_fPFNE5c082uW). _Rural Sociology_, _63_(4), 533-552. Rudel, T. K., Coomes, O. T., Moran, E., Achard, F., Angelsen, A., Xu, J., & Lambin, E. (2005). [Forest transitions: towards a global understanding of land use change](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378004000809). _Global Environmental Change_, _15_(1), 23-31. Cuaresma, J. C., Danylo, O., Fritz, S., McCallum, I., Obersteiner, M., See, L., & Walsh, B. (2017). [Economic development and forest cover: evidence from satellite data](https://www.nature.com/articles/srep40678). _Scientific Reports_, _7_, 40678.{/ref} As a country achieves economic growth it moves through each of the four stages. This explains historical trends we see for countries across the world today. Rich countries – such as the USA, France and the United Kingdom – have had a long history of deforestation but are now passed the transition point. Most deforestation today occurs in low-to-middle income countries. ## Where are countries in the transition today? If we look at where countries are in their transition today we can understand where we expect to lose and gain forest in the coming decades. Most of our future deforestation is going to come from countries in the pre- or early-transition phase. Several studies have assessed the stage of countries across the world.{ref} Noriko Hosonuma et al. (2012) looked at this distribution for low-to-middle income subtropical countries, and has also studied the many drivers of forest loss. Hosonuma, N., Herold, M., De Sy, V., De Fries, R. S., Brockhaus, M., Verchot, L., ... & Romijn, E. (2012). [An assessment of deforestation and forest degradation drivers in developing countries](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044009). _Environmental Research Letters_, _7_(4), 044009.{/ref} The most recent analysis to date was published by Florence Pendrill and colleagues (2019) which looked at each country’s stage in the transition, the drivers of deforestation but also the role of international trade.{ref}Pendrill, F., Persson, U. M., Godar, J., & Kastner, T. (2019). [Deforestation displaced: trade in forest-risk commodities and the prospects for a global forest transition](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab0d41). _Environmental Research Letters_, _14_(5), 055003.{/ref} To do this, they used the standard metrics discussed in our theory of forest transitions earlier: the share of land that is forested, and the annual _change_ in forest cover. In the map we see their assessment of each country’s stage in the transition. Most of today’s richest countries – all of Europe, North America, Japan, South Korea – have passed the turning point and are now regaining forest. This is also true for major economies such as China and India. That these countries have recently regained forests is also visible in the long-term forest trends above. Across sub-tropical countries we have a mix: many upper-middle income countries are now in the late transition phase. 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"content": "\n<p>Globally we deforest around ten million hectares of forest every year.{ref}The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) <a href=\"https://fra-data.fao.org/WO/assessment/fra2020\">Forest Resources Assessment</a> estimates global deforestation, averaged over the five-year period from 2015 to 2020 <a href=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-deforestation?tab=chart&stackMode=absolute&time=earliest..2015&country=~OWID_WRL&region=World\">was 10 million hectares</a> per year.{/ref} That\u2019s an area the size of Portugal every year. Around half of this deforestation is offset by regrowing forests, so overall we lose around five million hectares each year.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nearly all \u2013 95% \u2013 of this deforestation <a href=\"https://ourworldindata.org/deforestation#not-all-forest-loss-is-equal-what-is-the-difference-between-deforestation-and-forest-degradation\">occurs in the tropics</a>. But not all of it is to produce products for local markets. 14% of deforestation is driven by consumers in the world\u2019s richest countries \u2013 we import beef, vegetable oils, cocoa, coffee and paper that has been produced on deforested land.{ref}If we sum countries\u2019 <a href=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/imported-deforestation\">imported deforestation</a> by <a href=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/world-banks-income-groups?time=2013&country=IND~IDN\">World Bank income group</a>, we find that high-income countries were responsible for 14% of imported deforestation; upper-middle income for 52%; lower-middle income for 23%; and low income for 11%.{/ref}</p>\n\n\n\n<p>The scale of deforestation today might give us little hope for protecting our diverse forests. But by studying how forests have changed over time, there\u2019s good reason to think that a way forward is possible.</p>\n\n\n\n<h4>Many countries have lost then regained forest over millennia</h4>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-style-side-by-side\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\">\n<p>Time and time again we see examples of countries that have lost massive amounts of forest before reaching a turning point where deforestation not only slows, but forests return. In the chart we see historical reconstructions of country-level data on the share of land covered by forest (over decades, centuries or even millennia depending on the country). I have reconstructed long-term data using various studies which I\u2019ve <a href=\"https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nYpao4e8Ai-P86jIUZ3r7X6-5MjZ7ZbG7TJQSO729Bg/edit?usp=sharing\">documented here</a>.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>Many countries have much less forest today than they did in the past. Nearly half (47%) of France was forested 1000 years ago; today that\u2019s just under one-third (31.4%). The same is true of the United States; back in 1630 46% of the area of today\u2019s USA was covered by forest. Today that\u2019s just 34%. </p>\n\n\n\n<p>1000 years ago, 20% of Scotland\u2019s land was covered by forest. By the mid-18th century, only 4% of the country was forested. But then the trend turned, and it moved from deforestation to reforestation. For the last two centuries forests have been growing and are almost back to where they were 1000 years ago.{ref}Mather, A. S. (2004). <a href=\"https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/00369220418737194\">Forest transition theory and the reforesting of Scotland</a>. Scottish Geographical Journal, 120(1-2), 83-98.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>England is similar: in the late 11th century, 15% of the country was forested, and over the following centuries two-thirds were cut down. By the 19th century the forest area was reduced to a third of what it once was. But it was then that England reached its transition point and since then, forests have doubled in size.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>National Inventory of Woodland and Trees, England (2001). Forestry Commission. Available <a href=\"https://www.forestresearch.gov.uk/tools-and-resources/national-forest-inventory/national-inventory-of-woodland-and-trees/national-inventory-of-woodland-and-trees-england/\">here</a>.{/ref}</p>\n</div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\">\n<iframe src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/forest-area-as-share-of-land-area?tab=chart&time=earliest..latest&country=England~Scotland~FRA~USA&region=World\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\"></iframe>\n</div>\n</div>\n\n\n\n<h4>Forest Transitions: the U-shaped curve of forest change</h4>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-style-side-by-side\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\">\n<p>What\u2019s surprising is how consistent the pattern of change is across so many countries; as we\u2019ve seen they all seem to follow a \u2018U-shaped curve\u2019. They first lose lots of forest, but reach a turning point and begin to regain it again.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>We can illustrate this through the so-called \u2018Forest Transition Model\u2019.{ref}This was first coined by Alexander Mather in the 1990s.<br><br>Mather, A. S. (1990). <em>Global forest resources</em>. Belhaven Press.{/ref} This is shown in the chart. It breaks the change in forests into four stages, explained by two variables: the amount of forest cover a region has, and the annual <em>change</em> in cover (how quickly it is losing or gaining forest).{ref}This diagram is adapted from the work of Hosonuma et al. (2012).<br><br>Hosonuma, N., Herold, M., De Sy, V., De Fries, R. S., Brockhaus, M., Verchot, L., … & Romijn, E. (2012). <a href=\"https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044009\">An assessment of deforestation and forest degradation drivers in developing countries</a>. <em>Environmental Research Letters</em>, <em>7</em>(4), 044009.{/ref} </p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Stage 1 \u2013 The Pre-Transition phase</strong> is defined by having high levels of forest cover <em>and</em> no or only very slow losses over time. Countries may lose some forest each year, but this is at a very slow rate. Mather refers to an annual loss of less than 0.25% as a small loss.</p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Stage 2 \u2013 The Early Transition phase </strong>is when countries start to lose forests very rapidly. Forest cover falls quickly, and the annual loss of forest is high. </p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Stage 3 \u2013 The Late Transition phase </strong>is when deforestation rates start to slow down again. At this stage, countries are still losing forest each year but at a lower rate than before. At the end of this stage, countries are approaching the \u2018transition point\u2019.</p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Stage 4 \u2013 The Post-Transition phase </strong>is when countries have passed the \u2018transition point\u2019 and are now gaining forest again. At the beginning of this phase, the forest area is at its lowest point. But forest cover increases through reforestation. The annual change is now positive.</p>\n</div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\">\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"1906\" height=\"1960\" src=\"https://owid.cloud/app/uploads/2021/02/Forest-Transition-Model-01.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-40726\" srcset=\"https://owid.cloud/app/uploads/2021/02/Forest-Transition-Model-01.png 1906w, https://owid.cloud/app/uploads/2021/02/Forest-Transition-Model-01-389x400.png 389w, https://owid.cloud/app/uploads/2021/02/Forest-Transition-Model-01-535x550.png 535w, https://owid.cloud/app/uploads/2021/02/Forest-Transition-Model-01-146x150.png 146w, https://owid.cloud/app/uploads/2021/02/Forest-Transition-Model-01-768x790.png 768w, https://owid.cloud/app/uploads/2021/02/Forest-Transition-Model-01-1494x1536.png 1494w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1906px) 100vw, 1906px\" /></figure>\n</div>\n</div>\n\n\n\n<h4>Why do countries lose then regain forest?</h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Many countries have followed this classic U-shaped pattern. What explains this?</p>\n\n\n\n<p>There are two reasons that we cut down forests: </p>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>Forest resources:</strong> we want the resources that they provide \u2013 the wood for fuel, building materials, or paper;</li><li><strong>Land:</strong> \u2013 we want to use the land they occupy for something else \u2013 farmland to grow crops; pasture to raise livestock; or land to build roads and cities.</li></ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Our demand for both of these initially increases as <a href=\"http://ourworldindata.org/world-population-growth\">populations grow</a> and poor <a href=\"http://ourworldindata.org/economic-growth\">people get richer</a>. We need more fuelwood to cook, more houses to live in, and importantly, more food to eat. </p>\n\n\n\n<p>But, as countries continue to get richer this demand slows. The rate of population growth tends to slow down. Instead of using wood for fuel we switch to <a href=\"http://ourworldindata.org/fossil-fuels\">fossil fuels</a>, or hopefully, more <a href=\"http://ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy\">renewables</a> and <a href=\"http://ourworldindata.org/nuclear-energy\">nuclear energy</a>. Our <a href=\"http://ourworldindata.org/crop-yields\">crop yields</a> improve and so we need less land for agriculture.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>This demand for resources and land is not always driven by domestic markets. As I mentioned earlier, 14% of deforestation today is driven by consumers in rich countries.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Forest Transition therefore tends to follow a \u2018development\u2019 pathway.{ref}Rudel, T. K. (1998). <a href=\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1549-0831.1998.tb00691.x?casa_token=OMU4CKP4U9sAAAAA:tiRG94F5rYxcpW2HNA04pPP4ws-YjHk8ehm0NL_iPid_1PehhYLpYTy9Q-sshDD7_Fn_fPFNE5c082uW\">Is there a forest transition? Deforestation, reforestation, and development</a>. <em>Rural Sociology</em>, <em>63</em>(4), 533-552.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>Rudel, T. K., Coomes, O. T., Moran, E., Achard, F., Angelsen, A., Xu, J., & Lambin, E. (2005). <a href=\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378004000809\">Forest transitions: towards a global understanding of land use change</a>. <em>Global Environmental Change</em>, <em>15</em>(1), 23-31.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>Cuaresma, J. C., Danylo, O., Fritz, S., McCallum, I., Obersteiner, M., See, L., & Walsh, B. (2017). <a href=\"https://www.nature.com/articles/srep40678\">Economic development and forest cover: evidence from satellite data</a>. <em>Scientific Reports</em>, <em>7</em>, 40678.{/ref} As a country achieves economic growth it moves through each of the four stages. This explains historical trends we see for countries across the world today. Rich countries \u2013 such as the USA, France and the United Kingdom \u2013 have had a long history of deforestation but are now passed the transition point. Most deforestation today occurs in low-to-middle income countries.\u00a0</p>\n\n\n\n<h4>Where are countries in the transition today?</h4>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-style-side-by-side\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\">\n<p>If we look at where countries are in their transition today we can understand where we expect to lose and gain forest in the coming decades. Most of our future deforestation is going to come from countries in the pre- or early-transition phase.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>Several studies have assessed the stage of countries across the world.{ref} Noriko Hosonuma et al. (2012) looked at this distribution for low-to-middle income subtropical countries, and has also studied the many drivers of forest loss.<br><br>Hosonuma, N., Herold, M., De Sy, V., De Fries, R. S., Brockhaus, M., Verchot, L., … & Romijn, E. (2012). <a href=\"https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044009\">An assessment of deforestation and forest degradation drivers in developing countries</a>. <em>Environmental Research Letters</em>, <em>7</em>(4), 044009.{/ref} The most recent analysis to date was published by Florence Pendrill and colleagues (2019) which looked at each country\u2019s stage in the transition, the drivers of deforestation but also the role of international trade.{ref}Pendrill, F., Persson, U. M., Godar, J., & Kastner, T. (2019). <a href=\"https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab0d41\">Deforestation displaced: trade in forest-risk commodities and the prospects for a global forest transition</a>. <em>Environmental Research Letters</em>, <em>14</em>(5), 055003.{/ref} To do this, they used the standard metrics discussed in our theory of forest transitions earlier: the share of land that is forested, and the annual <em>change</em> in forest cover.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the map we see their assessment of each country\u2019s stage in the transition. Most of today\u2019s richest countries \u2013 all of Europe, North America, Japan, South Korea \u2013 have passed the turning point and are now regaining forest. This is also true for major economies such as China and India. That these countries have recently regained forests is also visible in the long-term forest trends above.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>Across sub-tropical countries we have a mix: many upper-middle income countries are now in the late transition phase. Brazil, for example, went through a period of very rapid deforestation in the 1980s and 90s (its \u2018early transition\u2019 phase) but its losses have slowed, meaning it is now in the late transition. Countries such as Indonesia, Myanmar, and the Democratic Republic of Congo are in the early transition phase and are losing forests quickly. Some of the world\u2019s poorest countries are still in the pre-transition phase. In the coming decades this is where we might expect to see the most rapid loss of forests unless these countries take action to prevent it, and the world supports them in the goal.</p>\n</div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\">\n<iframe src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/forest-transition-phase?stackMode=absolute&region=World\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\"></iframe>\n</div>\n</div>\n"
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