posts: 26531

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                        "text": "Global ",
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                    },
                    {
                        "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/cancer#global-perspective-on-cancer-deaths",
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                                "text": "cancer deaths are rising",
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                        "text": ": in 1990 5.7 million died from cancer; by 2016 this had increased to 8.9 million. But it's also true that the world today has more people, and more ",
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                        "children": [
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                                "text": "older",
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                        "text": " people, who are more likely to die from cancer. To understand what is happening we therefore have to correct for the population increase and ask for the rate \u2013 the number of deaths per 100,000 people \u2013 and we have to ",
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                    },
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                        "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Age_adjustment",
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                                "text": "adjust for ageing",
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                    {
                        "text": ".",
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                        "text": "When we compare these metrics (shown ",
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                                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/cancer-deaths-rate-and-age-standardized-rate-index",
                                "children": [
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                                        "text": "here",
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                        "text": ") we see that ",
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                        "children": [
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                                "text": "age-standardized\u00a0cancer death rates are\u00a0",
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                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "falling\u00a0",
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                            },
                            {
                                "text": "globally. ",
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                        "text": "Death rates which correct for ageing show a 17 percent decline from 1990 to 2016.",
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                "text": [
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                        "text": "Five-year survival rates have increased",
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                                "text": "One reason death rates can fall is that people with cancer have better or longer survival rates. We see this clearly in the USA when we look at the change in five-year survival rates across cancer types. This is shown in the chart as the change from 1970-77 to 2007-2013.",
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                                "text": "Here we see that on aggregate five-year survival rates for all cancers increased from 50.3 to 67 percent. But we also see significant differences not only in start or end survival rates, but the change over time. Prostate cancer has close to 99 percent five-year survival, but has also seen major progress from a rate of 69 percent in the 1970s. In contrast, pancreas has low five-year survival rates at 8.2 percent, up from 2.5 percent.",
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                                "text": "There are two key factors that could contribute to improved five-year survival rates: earlier detection and/or improved treatment. Defining the exact attribution of each is difficult, and varies depending on cancer type. But there have been some studies which have attempted to do so.\u00a0Scott Alexander published a very good overview of the relative impact of detection versus treatment ",
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                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "url": "https://slatestarcodex.com/2018/08/01/cancer-progress-much-more-than-you-wanted-to-know/",
                                        "children": [
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                                                "text": "here",
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                                "text": ".",
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                                "text": "One way to test whether survival rates only increased from early diagnosis is to look at how survival has changed for ",
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                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "each stage",
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                                "spanType": "span-italic"
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                                "text": " of cancer: if detection was the only improvement then we would see no increase in survival rates in later cancer stages. National cancer statistics published by the US government show increases in survival rate within all stages (from very early to late-stage).{ref}Jemal, A. et a. (2017). ",
                                "spanType": "span-simple-text"
                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://doi.org/10.1093/jnci/djx030",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "Annual Report to the Nation on the Status of Cancer, 1975\u20132014, Featuring Survival",
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                            {
                                "text": ",\u00a0",
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                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "JNCI: Journal of the National Cancer Institute",
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                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ", Volume 109, Issue 9, 1 September 2017.{/ref}",
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                                "text": "Other studies focused on specific cancer types show similar results.{ref}Rutter, C.M. et al. (2013). ",
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                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://doi.org/10.1093/jnci/djt299",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "Secular Trends in Colon and Rectal Cancer Relative Survival",
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                                ],
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                            },
                            {
                                "text": ",\u00a0",
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                            },
                            {
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "JNCI: Journal of the National Cancer Institute",
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                                "spanType": "span-italic"
                            },
                            {
                                "text": ", Volume 105, Issue 23, 4 December 2013.{/ref}",
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                                "text": "Tumours have gotten smaller in recent decades \u2013 the result of earlier detection. Studies have shown that this can account for a significant share of survival improvements: one study attributed early detection as\u00a061 percent and 28 percent of improved survival in localized-stage and regional-stage breast cancer, respectively{ref}Elkin, E.B. (2005).\u00a0",
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                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/cncr.21285",
                                "children": [
                                    {
                                        "text": "The effect of changes in tumor size on breast carcinoma survival in the U.S: 1975\u20131999",
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                                ],
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                            {
                                "text": ". ",
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                            {
                                "children": [
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                                        "text": "Cancer",
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                            {
                                "text": ".\u00a0Volume\u00a0104,\u00a0Issue\u00a06.{/ref} But even when correcting for size and early detection, we have seen improvements.\u00a0",
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                                "text": "This suggests better treatment has played a role too.",
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                                "text": "In both detection and treatment, we're seeing progress. This is important because of the large toll of cancer: Globally every sixth death is due to cancer \u2013 this makes it the ",
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                            },
                            {
                                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/annual-number-of-deaths-by-cause",
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                                        "text": "world's second largest cause of death",
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                            {
                                "text": ". Progress here is important for many.",
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                        "filename": "Five-year-cancer-survival-rates-USA-v2-01-768x563.png",
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                                "children": [
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                                        "text": "Interactive chart:",
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                                        "text": "The same data shown in the chart can be viewed and downloaded in this interactive ",
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                            {
                                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/five-year-cancer-survival-in-usa?time=1977..2013",
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                                        "children": [
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                                                "text": "here",
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                                        "text": ". Cancer survival rates in the US by race can be seen ",
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                                "spanType": "span-italic"
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                            {
                                "url": "https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/five-year-cancer-survival-rates-by-sex-and-race?time=1963..2013",
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                                        "children": [
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                                                "text": "here",
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                                "children": [
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                                        "text": ".",
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        ],
        "type": "article",
        "title": "Cancer death rates are falling; five-year survival rates are rising",
        "authors": [
            null
        ],
        "dateline": "October 30, 2019",
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    "createdAt": "2019-10-30T16:52:36.000Z",
    "published": false,
    "updatedAt": "2023-05-25T17:12:01.000Z",
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    "publishedAt": "2019-10-30T16:52:17.000Z",
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