posts: 25195

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25195 Half of Americans are worried about being a victim of terrorism untitled-reusable-block-43 wp_block publish <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Spreading widespread fear is a key aim of terrorism.<br><br> How effective have terrorists been in this regard? How many of us are actually worried about terrorism?</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:heading {"level":4} --> <h4>Half of the US population are worried about about being a victim of terrorism</h4> <!-- /wp:heading --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Many of the most comprehensive surveys on public opinion on terrorism have been conducted in the United States.&nbsp;</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>This visualization shows public concern for terrorism in the US since 1995. The data, from <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/4909/terrorism-united-states.aspx">Gallup Polls</a>, here shows the share of respondents who said they were “worried” (the sum of those who said they were ‘very’ or ‘somewhat worried’) and those who said they were “very worried” about them or a family member becoming the victim of terrorism.{ref}There are many similar studies which have reported high levels of concern among the US public about the risk of terrorism relative to other events. Haner, M., Sloan, M. M., Cullen, F. T., Kulig, T. C., &amp; Lero Jonson, C. (2019). <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/2378023119856825">Public Concern about Terrorism: Fear, Worry, and Support for Anti-Muslim Policies</a>. <em>Socius</em>, <em>5</em>.{/ref}</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Overall, around half said they were worried, of which around 10-20% were “very worried” of becoming a victim of terrorism. Throughout this period – with the exception of 2001 – <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/terrorism-percent-deaths?tab=chart&amp;country=USA">less than 0.01% of deaths</a> in the United States resulted from terrorist attacks.&nbsp;The average over <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/terrorism-percent-deaths?tab=chart&amp;time=1995..2017&amp;country=USA">the period from 1996 to 2017</a> was 0.006%.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>We also see that concerns were spiking after large terrorist attacks in the US or European countries.{ref}This is called the ‘availability heuristic’ which suggests our opinion on a given topic is influenced strongly by recent examples we can recall. This means we can be biased towards events covered recently in the news.{/ref} There was an immediate spike following the 9/11 attacks in New York and the 2005 London bombings; and a rise after the Boston Marathon bombings, and succession of attacks in Paris. When we see a recent attack in the news, we become more worried it will also happen to us or family members.&nbsp;</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>We should treat these results with some caution. It’s not entirely clear what someone means when they ask the question: “How worried are you that you or someone in your family will become a victim of terrorism?”. Is this asking about how likely we think this scenario is? The level of risk? Or simply whether we’d be worried if there was a chance it could happen to us? People may interpret it differently. Many people might think the probability of this happening is low, but upon consideration they’d be worried that a family member could be a victim.&nbsp;</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Because of this we should study how people change their behaviors based on this fear. Here we find more evidence that many people in the US are worried about terrorism.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:image {"id":25194,"sizeSlug":"full"} --> <figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img src="https://owid.cloud/app/uploads/2019/10/Share-in-the-US-worried-about-terrorism.png" alt="" class="wp-image-25194"/></figure> <!-- /wp:image --> <!-- wp:heading {"level":4} --> <h4>More than a third in the US say they’re less willing to do certain activities because of terrorism</h4> <!-- /wp:heading --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>There are certain locations and activities that are often the target of terrorist attacks: busy public spaces or countries around the world where <a href="http://ourworldindata.org/terrorism#where-in-the-world-does-terrorism-occur">attacks are more frequent</a>.{ref}LaFree, G., Dugan, L., &amp; Miller, E. (2014). <em>Putting terrorism in context: Lessons from the Global Terrorism Database</em>. Routledge.{/ref} Especially in the US in the aftermath of 9/11, aeroplanes and skyscrapers will also be seen as a potential target for terrorism, even if the evidence suggests that plane hijackings are <a href="http://ourworldindata.org/terrorism#how-often-are-airlines-hijacked">now incredibly rare</a>.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>The same survey as that referenced above also asked respondents if they were or weren’t less willing to do certain activities after terrorist events in recent years.&nbsp;</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>The chart shows the share of respondents who said they were less willing to do such activities. Here we see that a large share was willing to change their behaviors: over 40% said they were less willing to travel abroad; around a third were less likely to fly and go to crowded events; and one-quarter to go into skyscrapers.&nbsp;</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Do we see these claims when we look at actual patterns of behaviour?&nbsp;</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>A range of studies have looked at the impact of major terrorist incidents on airline demand, travel and tourism. Following 9/11 there was an immediate reduction in US airline demand – given as the number of passengers – of over 30%.{ref}&nbsp;Ito, H., &amp; Lee, D. (2005). <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0148619504000700">Assessing the impact of the September 11 terrorist attacks on US airline demand</a>. <em>Journal of Economics and Business</em>, <em>57</em>(1), 75-95.{/ref} This large fall did not persist at that level, but in the months and few years which followed, there was an ongoing reduction in demand of 7.4%. Although passenger demand later increased again, analyses suggest that domestic air travel did not return to the levels which would have been projected in the absence of the attacks.{ref}Blunk, S. S., Clark, D. E., &amp; McGibany, J. M. (2006). <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00036840500367930">Evaluating the long-run impacts of the 9/11 terrorist attacks on US domestic airline travel</a>. <em>Applied Economics</em>, <em>38</em>(4), 363-370.{/ref} This was also true of tourism to the United States in the years which followed 9/11.{ref}Bonham, C., Edmonds, C., &amp; Mak, J. (2006). <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0047287506288812">The impact of 9/11 and other terrible global events on tourism in the United States and Hawaii</a>. <em>Journal of Travel Research</em>, <em>45</em>(1), 99-110.{/ref}</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>These studies didn’t look at the distribution of reduced travel demand – whether it was people who stopped flying completely or just less often – so we can’t directly tie it together with the Gallup survey results. But both seem to report the same finding: 9/11 had a negative impact on the willingness of people in the US to fly.{ref}One <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0148619504000700#fig2">key finding</a> which emerged from this research was that the largest drop in air passenger demand in the aftermath of 9/11 was for the shortest distance flights – under 250 miles. An additional factor here which may affect demand was the increased security measures which were put into place following the attacks. This of course increased overall travel times and the ‘hassle’ of flying. This may have incentivized passengers on shorter journeys to switch their mode of transport to train or car. Increased security checks were therefore also an additional reason that people were less willing to fly after 9/11.{/ref} </p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:html --> <iframe src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/reactions-to-terrorism" style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;"></iframe> <!-- /wp:html --> 
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 Spreading widespread fear is a key aim of terrorism. How effective have terrorists been in this regard? How many of us are actually worried about terrorism? ## Half of the US population are worried about about being a victim of terrorism Many of the most comprehensive surveys on public opinion on terrorism have been conducted in the United States.  This visualization shows public concern for terrorism in the US since 1995. The data, from [Gallup Polls](https://news.gallup.com/poll/4909/terrorism-united-states.aspx), here shows the share of respondents who said they were “worried” (the sum of those who said they were ‘very’ or ‘somewhat worried’) and those who said they were “very worried” about them or a family member becoming the victim of terrorism.{ref}There are many similar studies which have reported high levels of concern among the US public about the risk of terrorism relative to other events. Haner, M., Sloan, M. M., Cullen, F. T., Kulig, T. C., & Lero Jonson, C. (2019). [Public Concern about Terrorism: Fear, Worry, and Support for Anti-Muslim Policies](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/2378023119856825). _Socius_, _5_.{/ref} Overall, around half said they were worried, of which around 10-20% were “very worried” of becoming a victim of terrorism. Throughout this period – with the exception of 2001 – [less than 0.01% of deaths](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/terrorism-percent-deaths?tab=chart&country=USA) in the United States resulted from terrorist attacks. The average over [the period from 1996 to 2017](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/terrorism-percent-deaths?tab=chart&time=1995..2017&country=USA) was 0.006%. We also see that concerns were spiking after large terrorist attacks in the US or European countries.{ref}This is called the ‘availability heuristic’ which suggests our opinion on a given topic is influenced strongly by recent examples we can recall. This means we can be biased towards events covered recently in the news.{/ref} There was an immediate spike following the 9/11 attacks in New York and the 2005 London bombings; and a rise after the Boston Marathon bombings, and succession of attacks in Paris. When we see a recent attack in the news, we become more worried it will also happen to us or family members.  We should treat these results with some caution. It’s not entirely clear what someone means when they ask the question: “How worried are you that you or someone in your family will become a victim of terrorism?”. Is this asking about how likely we think this scenario is? The level of risk? Or simply whether we’d be worried if there was a chance it could happen to us? People may interpret it differently. Many people might think the probability of this happening is low, but upon consideration they’d be worried that a family member could be a victim.  Because of this we should study how people change their behaviors based on this fear. Here we find more evidence that many people in the US are worried about terrorism. <Image filename="Share-in-the-US-worried-about-terrorism.png" alt=""/> ## More than a third in the US say they’re less willing to do certain activities because of terrorism There are certain locations and activities that are often the target of terrorist attacks: busy public spaces or countries around the world where [attacks are more frequent](http://ourworldindata.org/terrorism#where-in-the-world-does-terrorism-occur).{ref}LaFree, G., Dugan, L., & Miller, E. (2014). _Putting terrorism in context: Lessons from the Global Terrorism Database_. Routledge.{/ref} Especially in the US in the aftermath of 9/11, aeroplanes and skyscrapers will also be seen as a potential target for terrorism, even if the evidence suggests that plane hijackings are [now incredibly rare](http://ourworldindata.org/terrorism#how-often-are-airlines-hijacked). The same survey as that referenced above also asked respondents if they were or weren’t less willing to do certain activities after terrorist events in recent years.  The chart shows the share of respondents who said they were less willing to do such activities. Here we see that a large share was willing to change their behaviors: over 40% said they were less willing to travel abroad; around a third were less likely to fly and go to crowded events; and one-quarter to go into skyscrapers.  Do we see these claims when we look at actual patterns of behaviour?  A range of studies have looked at the impact of major terrorist incidents on airline demand, travel and tourism. Following 9/11 there was an immediate reduction in US airline demand – given as the number of passengers – of over 30%.{ref} Ito, H., & Lee, D. (2005). [Assessing the impact of the September 11 terrorist attacks on US airline demand](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0148619504000700). _Journal of Economics and Business_, _57_(1), 75-95.{/ref} This large fall did not persist at that level, but in the months and few years which followed, there was an ongoing reduction in demand of 7.4%. Although passenger demand later increased again, analyses suggest that domestic air travel did not return to the levels which would have been projected in the absence of the attacks.{ref}Blunk, S. S., Clark, D. E., & McGibany, J. M. (2006). [Evaluating the long-run impacts of the 9/11 terrorist attacks on US domestic airline travel](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00036840500367930). _Applied Economics_, _38_(4), 363-370.{/ref} This was also true of tourism to the United States in the years which followed 9/11.{ref}Bonham, C., Edmonds, C., & Mak, J. (2006). [The impact of 9/11 and other terrible global events on tourism in the United States and Hawaii](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0047287506288812). _Journal of Travel Research_, _45_(1), 99-110.{/ref} These studies didn’t look at the distribution of reduced travel demand – whether it was people who stopped flying completely or just less often – so we can’t directly tie it together with the Gallup survey results. But both seem to report the same finding: 9/11 had a negative impact on the willingness of people in the US to fly.{ref}One [key finding](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0148619504000700#fig2) which emerged from this research was that the largest drop in air passenger demand in the aftermath of 9/11 was for the shortest distance flights – under 250 miles. An additional factor here which may affect demand was the increased security measures which were put into place following the attacks. This of course increased overall travel times and the ‘hassle’ of flying. This may have incentivized passengers on shorter journeys to switch their mode of transport to train or car. Increased security checks were therefore also an additional reason that people were less willing to fly after 9/11.{/ref} <Chart url="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/reactions-to-terrorism"/> 
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            "content": "\n<p>Spreading widespread fear is a key aim of terrorism.<br><br> How effective have terrorists been in this regard? How many of us are actually worried about terrorism?</p>\n\n\n\n<h4>Half of the US population are worried about about being a victim of terrorism</h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Many of the most comprehensive surveys on public opinion on terrorism have been conducted in the United States.&nbsp;</p>\n\n\n\n<p>This visualization shows public concern for terrorism in the US since 1995. The data, from <a href=\"https://news.gallup.com/poll/4909/terrorism-united-states.aspx\">Gallup Polls</a>, here shows the share of respondents who said they were \u201cworried\u201d (the sum of those who said they were \u2018very\u2019 or \u2018somewhat worried\u2019) and those who said they were \u201cvery worried\u201d about them or a family member becoming the victim of terrorism.{ref}There are many similar studies which have reported high levels of concern among the US public about the risk of terrorism relative to other events. Haner, M., Sloan, M. M., Cullen, F. T., Kulig, T. C., &amp; Lero Jonson, C. (2019). <a href=\"https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/2378023119856825\">Public Concern about Terrorism: Fear, Worry, and Support for Anti-Muslim Policies</a>. <em>Socius</em>, <em>5</em>.{/ref}</p>\n\n\n\n<p>Overall, around half said they were worried, of which around 10-20% were \u201cvery worried\u201d of becoming a victim of terrorism. Throughout this period \u2013 with the exception of 2001 \u2013 <a href=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/terrorism-percent-deaths?tab=chart&amp;country=USA\">less than 0.01% of deaths</a> in the United States resulted from terrorist attacks.&nbsp;The average over <a href=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/terrorism-percent-deaths?tab=chart&amp;time=1995..2017&amp;country=USA\">the period from 1996 to 2017</a> was 0.006%.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>We also see that concerns were spiking after large terrorist attacks in the US or European countries.{ref}This is called the \u2018availability heuristic\u2019 which suggests our opinion on a given topic is influenced strongly by recent examples we can recall. This means we can be biased towards events covered recently in the news.{/ref} There was an immediate spike following the 9/11 attacks in New York and the 2005 London bombings; and a rise after the Boston Marathon bombings, and succession of attacks in Paris. When we see a recent attack in the news, we become more worried it will also happen to us or family members.&nbsp;</p>\n\n\n\n<p>We should treat these results with some caution. It\u2019s not entirely clear what someone means when they ask the question: \u201cHow worried are you that you or someone in your family will become a victim of terrorism?\u201d. Is this asking about how likely we think this scenario is? The level of risk? Or simply whether we\u2019d be worried if there was a chance it could happen to us? People may interpret it differently. Many people might think the probability of this happening is low, but upon consideration they\u2019d be worried that a family member could be a victim.&nbsp;</p>\n\n\n\n<p>Because of this we should study how people change their behaviors based on this fear. Here we find more evidence that many people in the US are worried about terrorism.</p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" width=\"5804\" height=\"4216\" src=\"https://owid.cloud/app/uploads/2019/10/Share-in-the-US-worried-about-terrorism.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-25194\" srcset=\"https://owid.cloud/app/uploads/2019/10/Share-in-the-US-worried-about-terrorism.png 5804w, https://owid.cloud/app/uploads/2019/10/Share-in-the-US-worried-about-terrorism-150x109.png 150w, https://owid.cloud/app/uploads/2019/10/Share-in-the-US-worried-about-terrorism-400x291.png 400w, https://owid.cloud/app/uploads/2019/10/Share-in-the-US-worried-about-terrorism-768x558.png 768w, https://owid.cloud/app/uploads/2019/10/Share-in-the-US-worried-about-terrorism-757x550.png 757w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 5804px) 100vw, 5804px\" /></figure>\n\n\n\n<h4>More than a third in the US say they\u2019re less willing to do certain activities because of terrorism</h4>\n\n\n\n<p>There are certain locations and activities that are often the target of terrorist attacks: busy public spaces or countries around the world where <a href=\"http://ourworldindata.org/terrorism#where-in-the-world-does-terrorism-occur\">attacks are more frequent</a>.{ref}LaFree, G., Dugan, L., &amp; Miller, E. (2014). <em>Putting terrorism in context: Lessons from the Global Terrorism Database</em>. Routledge.{/ref} Especially in the US in the aftermath of 9/11, aeroplanes and skyscrapers will also be seen as a potential target for terrorism, even if the evidence suggests that plane hijackings are <a href=\"http://ourworldindata.org/terrorism#how-often-are-airlines-hijacked\">now incredibly rare</a>.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>The same survey as that referenced above also asked respondents if they were or weren\u2019t less willing to do certain activities after terrorist events in recent years.&nbsp;</p>\n\n\n\n<p>The chart shows the share of respondents who said they were less willing to do such activities. Here we see that a large share was willing to change their behaviors: over 40% said they were less willing to travel abroad; around a third were less likely to fly and go to crowded events; and one-quarter to go into skyscrapers.&nbsp;</p>\n\n\n\n<p>Do we see these claims when we look at actual patterns of behaviour?&nbsp;</p>\n\n\n\n<p>A range of studies have looked at the impact of major terrorist incidents on airline demand, travel and tourism. Following 9/11 there was an immediate reduction in US airline demand \u2013 given as the number of passengers \u2013 of over 30%.{ref}&nbsp;Ito, H., &amp; Lee, D. (2005). <a href=\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0148619504000700\">Assessing the impact of the September 11 terrorist attacks on US airline demand</a>. <em>Journal of Economics and Business</em>, <em>57</em>(1), 75-95.{/ref} This large fall did not persist at that level, but in the months and few years which followed, there was an ongoing reduction in demand of 7.4%. Although passenger demand later increased again, analyses suggest that domestic air travel did not return to the levels which would have been projected in the absence of the attacks.{ref}Blunk, S. S., Clark, D. E., &amp; McGibany, J. M. (2006). <a href=\"https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00036840500367930\">Evaluating the long-run impacts of the 9/11 terrorist attacks on US domestic airline travel</a>. <em>Applied Economics</em>, <em>38</em>(4), 363-370.{/ref} This was also true of tourism to the United States in the years which followed 9/11.{ref}Bonham, C., Edmonds, C., &amp; Mak, J. (2006). <a href=\"https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0047287506288812\">The impact of 9/11 and other terrible global events on tourism in the United States and Hawaii</a>. <em>Journal of Travel Research</em>, <em>45</em>(1), 99-110.{/ref}</p>\n\n\n\n<p>These studies didn\u2019t look at the distribution of reduced travel demand \u2013 whether it was people who stopped flying completely or just less often \u2013 so we can\u2019t directly tie it together with the Gallup survey results. But both seem to report the same finding: 9/11 had a negative impact on the willingness of people in the US to fly.{ref}One <a href=\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0148619504000700#fig2\">key finding</a> which emerged from this research was that the largest drop in air passenger demand in the aftermath of 9/11 was for the shortest distance flights \u2013 under 250 miles. An additional factor here which may affect demand was the increased security measures which were put into place following the attacks. This of course increased overall travel times and the \u2018hassle\u2019 of flying. This may have incentivized passengers on shorter journeys to switch their mode of transport to train or car. Increased security checks were therefore also an additional reason that people were less willing to fly after 9/11.{/ref} </p>\n\n\n\n<iframe src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/reactions-to-terrorism\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\"></iframe>\n"
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