posts: 24620
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| 24620 | How often did parents see their children die? | parents-losing-their-child | post | publish | <!-- wp:html --> <div class="blog-info">Our World in Data presents the data and research to make progress against the world’s largest problems.<br>This article draws on data and research discussed in our entry on <strong><a href="https://ourworldindata.org/child-mortality" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Child Mortality</a></strong>.<br>The text of this article was updated on May 18, 2022.</div> <!-- /wp:html --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>"<em>Here ends the joy of my life</em>," ends the diary entry of John Evelyn, after his son Richard died on January 27, 1658.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Richard was their first-born child. He died young: <em>“5 years and 3 days old onely, but at that tender age a prodigy for witt and understanding; for beauty of body a very angel; for endowment of mind of incredible and rare hopes.”</em>{ref}From John Evelyn – <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=xN1SAAAAcAAJ&pg=PA127&lpg=PA127&dq=%225+yeares+and+3+days+old+onely,+but+at+that+tender+age+a+prodigy+for+witt+and+understanding%22&source=bl&ots=bthB4tRKT6&sig=ACfU3U0iUeixAca9cAjdJVMIxKTt7mrPIg&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwijl4Cwq7TkAhUAQhUIHZvKDCsQ6AEwAXoECAgQAQ#v=onepage&q&f=false">’Memoirs of John Evelyn’</a>.{/ref}</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Despite their <em>“inexpressible grief and affliction”</em> after Richard’s death, John and his wife, Mary, continued to have children together. They had another son – also named Richard – who died as a newborn. Again they were heartbroken; but it wasn’t the end of it. Together they had eight children; seven of them died.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>The diaries of other parents recall similar hardship. Elizabeth Duncombe and her husband, the English politician William Brownlow, lived through some particularly tortuous periods: in just eight years between 1638 and 1646 they had seven children. All of them – Thomas, Francis, Benjamin, George, James, Maria, and Anne – died. William’s diary records speak of the parents’ heartbreak. When George – their fifteenth child – died in 1642 his father wrote “<em>Thou O God hast broken me asunder and shaken me to pieces”</em>.{ref}Quoted after Antonia Fraser’s <a href="https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=nfZVnNYgnCYC&pg=PT67&dq=%22hast+broken+me+asunder+and+shaken+me+to+pieces%22+brownlow&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiqwf-oqrTkAhVToXEKHU_9CSsQ6AEIMTAB#v=onepage&q=%22but%20thou%20o%20god%20hast%20broken%20me%20asunder%20and%20shaken%20me%20to%20pieces%22&f=false">‘The Weaker Vessel: Women in history’</a>, in which she gives an account of the grieving of parents throughout history.{/ref} In total they saw 13 of their 19 children die.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>The death of a young child has always been the most devastating tragedy mothers and fathers could experience.{ref}For a more comprehensive treatment of the grief of parents for their children in Medieval times see Nicholas Orme (2001) – Medieval Children.{/ref} But just how common was it? How many parents saw their children die?</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:heading {"level":4} --> <h4>The historical data shows that most parents saw a child die</h4> <!-- /wp:heading --> <!-- wp:columns --> <div class="wp-block-columns"><!-- wp:column --> <div class="wp-block-column"><!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>The visualization gives us the answer.{ref}The data shown in this visualization is calculated based on a selection of the historical estimates of fertility and child mortality presented at<a href="https://www.gapminder.org/"> Gapminder.org</a> (see the sources tab in the chart for more information).{/ref} </p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Shown is the data for Sweden, but you can switch the view to any other country in the world using the ‘Change country’ button on the interactive chart. Sweden is a country that has particularly good long-run demographic data as it was the first country to establish an office for population statistics: the <em>Tabellverket</em>, which was founded in 1749.{ref}See the<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20220516112816/https://www.scb.se/en/About-us/main-activity/history-of-statistics-sweden/"> history of Statistics in Sweden</a>.{/ref}</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>The total height of the orange and purple area shows the average number of children born per woman – the<a href="https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate"> fertility rate</a>.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>The area in purple shows the answer to our question: it is the average number of children, per woman, that died in the first five years of their life.{ref}I calculated this by multiplying the number of children per woman by the mortality rate of children under five.{/ref}</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Throughout most of the 19th century Swedish women gave birth to more than four children, on average. During this period the child mortality rate was<a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/child-mortality?tab=chart&country=FIN+SWE"> around one-in-four</a> (though at times much higher). This meant that most parents saw one of their children die.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Parents losing one child, on average, is terrible. But this number actually underestimates the average experience of parents for three reasons: </p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>First, many children died when they were older than five. John and Mary Evelyn lost their son, Richard, when he was older than five. More generally we document this in <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/child-mortality-in-the-past">our post</a> on child mortality in the past.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Second, this data presents the average number of children <em>per woman</em>. But not every woman was a mother – this means that many mothers had (and lost) more children. </p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Third, this data is restricted to more recent periods of history where we have good demographic records. By this time, the child mortality rate had already declined. Parents were likely to have lost even more children in the centuries before the annual data becomes available.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>For some countries it is possible to go back further in time. In Sweden, in the mid-18th century 40% of children died before the age of 15. In France the mortality rate was about 45% at the same time and in Bavaria, in modern day Germany, half of all children died. At that time the average number of children per couple was often higher than 5, 6, or even 7 so that parents often saw several of their children die.{ref}The metric that I would ideally need here is the average number of children per woman (or per couple). This is sometimes reported as average family size, but I was not able to find this data. But I could find the total marital fertility rate.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>The sources for the three countries are the following:</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Sweden:<br>The total marital fertility rate of 7.62 children per married woman is taken from Table II (page 40) in M. Anderson (Ed.) (1996) – Population Change in North-Western Europe, 1750–1850. </p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Extramarital children were rare in Sweden at the time. Anderson estimates it at 2%.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>The under-15 mortality rate is taken from the Human Mortality Database and corresponds to the average of the annual observations from 1750 to 1780.<br><br>Bavaria, Germany:</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>This data is taken from John Knodel’s research: John Knodel (1970) – ‘Two and a Half Centuries of Demographic History in a Bavarian Village’. <em>Population Studies</em> 24, no. 3 (1 November 1970): 353–76.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>According to his study married women had on average 5.6 children and saw on average almost three (2.8) of their children die before they were 15 years old. Knodel also includes data for an earlier period, but I have not included the data prior to 1749 as Knodel writes “The figure shown for couples married between 1692 and 1749 is undoubtedly spuriously high, resulting from the frequent omission of infant and child deaths from the parish registers during the period.” Knodel suggests that even the data after 1750 (which is shown here) is likely an underestimate of the true mortality.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>France:<br><br>In France the average married woman had about 8 children in the period 1740 to 1769. This is the total marital fertility rate taken from Table II (page 40) in M. Anderson (Ed.) (1996) – Population Change in North-Western Europe, 1750–1850. </p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>For France I’m not aware of a mortality rate estimate for this particular period. I am therefore relying on an average between an earlier and a later estimate. Both are reported in Volk and Atkinson. For the period 1600-1700 the authors report an estimate of 40-50% and for 1816-50 a mortality rate of 44%.{/ref}</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>This has changed dramatically over the last century. Child mortality and fertility rates have both fallen. </p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>As the data in the chart shows, for Sweden the average has gone down to 0.006 child deaths per woman. What was once very common, became rare. </p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>In this visualization you can change the country for which this data is shown and explore the trends in countries around the world. To compare the number of children lost per woman for several countries – and see the data on a world map – you can use<a href="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/children-died-before-five-per-woman?tab=map&year=2015&time=1800..2015"> this visualization</a>. In most world regions it has become rare for parents to lose a child, but this is unfortunately not true everywhere.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --></div> <!-- /wp:column --> <!-- wp:column --> <div class="wp-block-column"><!-- wp:html --> <iframe style="width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;" src="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/Children-woman-death-vs-survival"></iframe> <!-- /wp:html --></div> <!-- /wp:column --></div> <!-- /wp:columns --> <!-- wp:heading {"level":4} --> <h4>Conclusion</h4> <!-- /wp:heading --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>The life stories of the Evelyn’s and of Elizabeth Duncombe and William Brownlow are heartbreaking, but they were unfortunately not unusual. Almost all parents saw one or several of their children die.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>When I write about the history of child mortality some commentators speculate that the loss of a child might have not been painful in times and places where it’s common. This is not reflected in the diary entries of these parents. Seeing one’s child die has always been terrible for parents, also during the long period of humanity’s history when the death of a child <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/child-mortality-in-the-past">was very common</a>.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:separator --> <hr class="wp-block-separator"/> <!-- /wp:separator --> <!-- wp:quote --> <blockquote class="wp-block-quote"><p>Grief fills the room up of my absent child<br>Lies in his bed, walks up and down with me,<br>Puts on his pretty looks, repeats his words,<br>Remembers me of all his gracious parts,<br>Stuffs out his vacant garments with his form.</p><p><span style="font-size: inherit;">– Shakespeare [The words of King John after his son dies at the age of eleven]</span></p></blockquote> <!-- /wp:quote --> | {
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"text": "Third, this data is restricted to more recent periods of history where we have good demographic records. By this time, the child mortality rate had already declined. Parents were likely to have lost even more children in the centuries before the annual data becomes available.",
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"text": "For some countries it is possible to go back further in time. In Sweden, in the mid-18th century 40% of children died before the age of 15. In France the mortality rate was about 45% at the same time and in Bavaria, in modern day Germany, half of all children died. At that time the average number of children per couple was often higher than 5, 6, or even 7 so that parents often saw several of their children die.{ref}The metric that I would ideally need here is the average number of children per woman (or per couple). This is sometimes reported as average family size, but I was not able to find this data. But I could find the total marital fertility rate.",
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"text": "The total marital fertility rate of 7.62 children per married woman is taken from Table II (page 40) in M. Anderson (Ed.) (1996) \u2013 Population Change in North-Western Europe, 1750\u20131850.\u00a0",
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"text": "This data is taken from John Knodel\u2019s research: John Knodel (1970) \u2013 \u2018Two and a Half Centuries of Demographic History in a Bavarian Village\u2019. ",
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"text": "When I write about the history of child mortality some commentators speculate that the loss of a child might have not been painful in times and places where it\u2019s common. This is not reflected in the diary entries of these parents. Seeing one\u2019s child die has always been terrible for parents, also during the long period of humanity\u2019s history when the death of a child ",
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2019-09-12 10:00:17 | 2024-02-16 14:22:49 | 11s41-PjJiMQzWRzgx7QQ8Xfr0cRfRI4hgdSNsHK7ZsI | [
"Max Roser"
] |
The death of a young child has always been the most devastating tragedy mothers and fathers could experience. How common was it? | 2019-09-12 08:43:17 | 2022-05-18 08:53:42 | https://ourworldindata.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Screenshot-2022-05-11-at-11.38.59.png | {} |
Our World in Data presents the data and research to make progress against the world’s largest problems. This article draws on data and research discussed in our entry on **[Child Mortality](https://ourworldindata.org/child-mortality)** . The text of this article was updated on May 18, 2022. "_Here ends the joy of my life_," ends the diary entry of John Evelyn, after his son Richard died on January 27, 1658. Richard was their first-born child. He died young: _“5 years and 3 days old onely, but at that tender age a prodigy for witt and understanding; for beauty of body a very angel; for endowment of mind of incredible and rare hopes.”_{ref}From John Evelyn – [’Memoirs of John Evelyn’](https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=xN1SAAAAcAAJ&pg=PA127&lpg=PA127&dq=%225+yeares+and+3+days+old+onely,+but+at+that+tender+age+a+prodigy+for+witt+and+understanding%22&source=bl&ots=bthB4tRKT6&sig=ACfU3U0iUeixAca9cAjdJVMIxKTt7mrPIg&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwijl4Cwq7TkAhUAQhUIHZvKDCsQ6AEwAXoECAgQAQ#v=onepage&q&f=false).{/ref} Despite their _“inexpressible grief and affliction”_ after Richard’s death, John and his wife, Mary, continued to have children together. They had another son – also named Richard – who died as a newborn. Again they were heartbroken; but it wasn’t the end of it. Together they had eight children; seven of them died. The diaries of other parents recall similar hardship. Elizabeth Duncombe and her husband, the English politician William Brownlow, lived through some particularly tortuous periods: in just eight years between 1638 and 1646 they had seven children. All of them – Thomas, Francis, Benjamin, George, James, Maria, and Anne – died. William’s diary records speak of the parents’ heartbreak. When George – their fifteenth child – died in 1642 his father wrote “_Thou O God hast broken me asunder and shaken me to pieces”_.{ref}Quoted after Antonia Fraser’s [‘The Weaker Vessel: Women in history’](https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=nfZVnNYgnCYC&pg=PT67&dq=%22hast+broken+me+asunder+and+shaken+me+to+pieces%22+brownlow&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiqwf-oqrTkAhVToXEKHU_9CSsQ6AEIMTAB#v=onepage&q=%22but%20thou%20o%20god%20hast%20broken%20me%20asunder%20and%20shaken%20me%20to%20pieces%22&f=false), in which she gives an account of the grieving of parents throughout history.{/ref} In total they saw 13 of their 19 children die. The death of a young child has always been the most devastating tragedy mothers and fathers could experience.{ref}For a more comprehensive treatment of the grief of parents for their children in Medieval times see Nicholas Orme (2001) – Medieval Children.{/ref} But just how common was it? How many parents saw their children die? ## The historical data shows that most parents saw a child die The visualization gives us the answer.{ref}The data shown in this visualization is calculated based on a selection of the historical estimates of fertility and child mortality presented at[ Gapminder.org](https://www.gapminder.org/) (see the sources tab in the chart for more information).{/ref} Shown is the data for Sweden, but you can switch the view to any other country in the world using the ‘Change country’ button on the interactive chart. Sweden is a country that has particularly good long-run demographic data as it was the first country to establish an office for population statistics: the _Tabellverket_, which was founded in 1749.{ref}See the[ history of Statistics in Sweden](https://web.archive.org/web/20220516112816/https://www.scb.se/en/About-us/main-activity/history-of-statistics-sweden/).{/ref} The total height of the orange and purple area shows the average number of children born per woman – the[ fertility rate](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate). The area in purple shows the answer to our question: it is the average number of children, per woman, that died in the first five years of their life.{ref}I calculated this by multiplying the number of children per woman by the mortality rate of children under five.{/ref} Throughout most of the 19th century Swedish women gave birth to more than four children, on average. During this period the child mortality rate was[ around one-in-four](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/child-mortality?tab=chart&country=FIN+SWE) (though at times much higher). This meant that most parents saw one of their children die. Parents losing one child, on average, is terrible. But this number actually underestimates the average experience of parents for three reasons: First, many children died when they were older than five. John and Mary Evelyn lost their son, Richard, when he was older than five. More generally we document this in [our post](https://ourworldindata.org/child-mortality-in-the-past) on child mortality in the past. Second, this data presents the average number of children _per woman_. But not every woman was a mother – this means that many mothers had (and lost) more children. Third, this data is restricted to more recent periods of history where we have good demographic records. By this time, the child mortality rate had already declined. Parents were likely to have lost even more children in the centuries before the annual data becomes available. For some countries it is possible to go back further in time. In Sweden, in the mid-18th century 40% of children died before the age of 15. In France the mortality rate was about 45% at the same time and in Bavaria, in modern day Germany, half of all children died. At that time the average number of children per couple was often higher than 5, 6, or even 7 so that parents often saw several of their children die.{ref}The metric that I would ideally need here is the average number of children per woman (or per couple). This is sometimes reported as average family size, but I was not able to find this data. But I could find the total marital fertility rate. The sources for the three countries are the following: Sweden: The total marital fertility rate of 7.62 children per married woman is taken from Table II (page 40) in M. Anderson (Ed.) (1996) – Population Change in North-Western Europe, 1750–1850. Extramarital children were rare in Sweden at the time. Anderson estimates it at 2%. The under-15 mortality rate is taken from the Human Mortality Database and corresponds to the average of the annual observations from 1750 to 1780. Bavaria, Germany: This data is taken from John Knodel’s research: John Knodel (1970) – ‘Two and a Half Centuries of Demographic History in a Bavarian Village’. _Population Studies_ 24, no. 3 (1 November 1970): 353–76. According to his study married women had on average 5.6 children and saw on average almost three (2.8) of their children die before they were 15 years old. Knodel also includes data for an earlier period, but I have not included the data prior to 1749 as Knodel writes “The figure shown for couples married between 1692 and 1749 is undoubtedly spuriously high, resulting from the frequent omission of infant and child deaths from the parish registers during the period.” Knodel suggests that even the data after 1750 (which is shown here) is likely an underestimate of the true mortality. France: In France the average married woman had about 8 children in the period 1740 to 1769. This is the total marital fertility rate taken from Table II (page 40) in M. Anderson (Ed.) (1996) – Population Change in North-Western Europe, 1750–1850. For France I’m not aware of a mortality rate estimate for this particular period. I am therefore relying on an average between an earlier and a later estimate. Both are reported in Volk and Atkinson. For the period 1600-1700 the authors report an estimate of 40-50% and for 1816-50 a mortality rate of 44%.{/ref} This has changed dramatically over the last century. Child mortality and fertility rates have both fallen. As the data in the chart shows, for Sweden the average has gone down to 0.006 child deaths per woman. What was once very common, became rare. In this visualization you can change the country for which this data is shown and explore the trends in countries around the world. To compare the number of children lost per woman for several countries – and see the data on a world map – you can use[ this visualization](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/children-died-before-five-per-woman?tab=map&year=2015&time=1800..2015). In most world regions it has become rare for parents to lose a child, but this is unfortunately not true everywhere. <Chart url="https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/Children-woman-death-vs-survival"/> ## Conclusion The life stories of the Evelyn’s and of Elizabeth Duncombe and William Brownlow are heartbreaking, but they were unfortunately not unusual. Almost all parents saw one or several of their children die. When I write about the history of child mortality some commentators speculate that the loss of a child might have not been painful in times and places where it’s common. This is not reflected in the diary entries of these parents. Seeing one’s child die has always been terrible for parents, also during the long period of humanity’s history when the death of a child [was very common](https://ourworldindata.org/child-mortality-in-the-past). -- undefined | {
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"rendered": "\n<div class=\"blog-info\">Our World in Data presents the data and research to make progress against the world\u2019s largest problems.<br>This article draws on data and research discussed in our entry on <strong><a href=\"https://ourworldindata.org/child-mortality\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Child Mortality</a></strong>.<br>The text of this article was updated on May 18, 2022.</div>\n\n\n\n<p>“<em>Here ends the joy of my life</em>,” ends the diary entry of John Evelyn, after his son Richard died on January 27, 1658.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>Richard was their first-born child. He died young: <em>\u201c5 years and 3 days old onely, but at that tender age a prodigy for witt and understanding; for beauty of body a very angel; for endowment of mind of incredible and rare hopes.\u201d</em>{ref}From John Evelyn \u2013 <a href=\"https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=xN1SAAAAcAAJ&pg=PA127&lpg=PA127&dq=%225+yeares+and+3+days+old+onely,+but+at+that+tender+age+a+prodigy+for+witt+and+understanding%22&source=bl&ots=bthB4tRKT6&sig=ACfU3U0iUeixAca9cAjdJVMIxKTt7mrPIg&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwijl4Cwq7TkAhUAQhUIHZvKDCsQ6AEwAXoECAgQAQ#v=onepage&q&f=false\">\u2019Memoirs of John Evelyn\u2019</a>.{/ref}</p>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite their <em>\u201cinexpressible grief and affliction\u201d</em> after Richard\u2019s death, John and his wife, Mary, continued to have children together. They had another son \u2013 also named Richard \u2013 who died as a newborn. Again they were heartbroken; but it wasn\u2019t the end of it. Together they had eight children; seven of them died.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>The diaries of other parents recall similar hardship. Elizabeth Duncombe and her husband, the English politician William Brownlow, lived through some particularly tortuous periods: in just eight years between 1638 and 1646 they had seven children. All of them \u2013 Thomas, Francis, Benjamin, George, James, Maria, and Anne \u2013 died. William\u2019s diary records speak of the parents\u2019 heartbreak. When George \u2013 their fifteenth child \u2013 died in 1642 his father wrote \u201c<em>Thou O God hast broken me asunder and shaken me to pieces\u201d</em>.{ref}Quoted after Antonia Fraser\u2019s <a href=\"https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=nfZVnNYgnCYC&pg=PT67&dq=%22hast+broken+me+asunder+and+shaken+me+to+pieces%22+brownlow&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiqwf-oqrTkAhVToXEKHU_9CSsQ6AEIMTAB#v=onepage&q=%22but%20thou%20o%20god%20hast%20broken%20me%20asunder%20and%20shaken%20me%20to%20pieces%22&f=false\">\u2018The Weaker Vessel: Women in history\u2019</a>, in which she gives an account of the grieving of parents throughout history.{/ref} In total they saw 13 of their 19 children die.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>The death of a young child has always been the most devastating tragedy mothers and fathers could experience.{ref}For a more comprehensive treatment of the grief of parents for their children in Medieval times see Nicholas Orme (2001) \u2013 Medieval Children.{/ref} But just how common was it? How many parents saw their children die?</p>\n\n\n\n<h4>The historical data shows that most parents saw a child die</h4>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\">\n<p>The visualization gives us the answer.{ref}The data shown in this visualization is calculated based on a selection of the historical estimates of fertility and child mortality presented at<a href=\"https://www.gapminder.org/\"> Gapminder.org</a> (see the sources tab in the chart for more information).{/ref} </p>\n\n\n\n<p>Shown is the data for Sweden, but you can switch the view to any other country in the world using the \u2018Change country\u2019 button on the interactive chart. Sweden is a country that has particularly good long-run demographic data as it was the first country to establish an office for population statistics: the <em>Tabellverket</em>, which was founded in 1749.{ref}See the<a href=\"https://web.archive.org/web/20220516112816/https://www.scb.se/en/About-us/main-activity/history-of-statistics-sweden/\"> history of Statistics in Sweden</a>.{/ref}</p>\n\n\n\n<p>The total height of the orange and purple area shows the average number of children born per woman \u2013 the<a href=\"https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate\"> fertility rate</a>.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>The area in purple shows the answer to our question: it is the average number of children, per woman, that died in the first five years of their life.{ref}I calculated this by multiplying the number of children per woman by the mortality rate of children under five.{/ref}</p>\n\n\n\n<p>Throughout most of the 19th century Swedish women gave birth to more than four children, on average. During this period the child mortality rate was<a href=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/child-mortality?tab=chart&country=FIN+SWE\"> around one-in-four</a> (though at times much higher). This meant that most parents saw one of their children die.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>Parents losing one child, on average, is terrible. But this number actually underestimates the average experience of parents for three reasons: </p>\n\n\n\n<p>First, many children died when they were older than five. John and Mary Evelyn lost their son, Richard, when he was older than five. More generally we document this in <a href=\"https://ourworldindata.org/child-mortality-in-the-past\">our post</a> on child mortality in the past.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>Second, this data presents the average number of children <em>per woman</em>. But not every woman was a mother \u2013 this means that many mothers had (and lost) more children. </p>\n\n\n\n<p>Third, this data is restricted to more recent periods of history where we have good demographic records. By this time, the child mortality rate had already declined. Parents were likely to have lost even more children in the centuries before the annual data becomes available.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>For some countries it is possible to go back further in time. In Sweden, in the mid-18th century 40% of children died before the age of 15. In France the mortality rate was about 45% at the same time and in Bavaria, in modern day Germany, half of all children died. At that time the average number of children per couple was often higher than 5, 6, or even 7 so that parents often saw several of their children die.{ref}The metric that I would ideally need here is the average number of children per woman (or per couple). This is sometimes reported as average family size, but I was not able to find this data. But I could find the total marital fertility rate.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>The sources for the three countries are the following:</p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sweden:<br>The total marital fertility rate of 7.62 children per married woman is taken from Table II (page 40) in M. Anderson (Ed.) (1996) \u2013 Population Change in North-Western Europe, 1750\u20131850. </p>\n\n\n\n<p>Extramarital children were rare in Sweden at the time. Anderson estimates it at 2%.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>The under-15 mortality rate is taken from the Human Mortality Database and corresponds to the average of the annual observations from 1750 to 1780.<br><br>Bavaria, Germany:</p>\n\n\n\n<p>This data is taken from John Knodel\u2019s research: John Knodel (1970) \u2013 \u2018Two and a Half Centuries of Demographic History in a Bavarian Village\u2019. <em>Population Studies</em> 24, no. 3 (1 November 1970): 353\u201376.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to his study married women had on average 5.6 children and saw on average almost three (2.8) of their children die before they were 15 years old. Knodel also includes data for an earlier period, but I have not included the data prior to 1749 as Knodel writes \u201cThe figure shown for couples married between 1692 and 1749 is undoubtedly spuriously high, resulting from the frequent omission of infant and child deaths from the parish registers during the period.\u201d Knodel suggests that even the data after 1750 (which is shown here) is likely an underestimate of the true mortality.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>France:<br><br>In France the average married woman had about 8 children in the period 1740 to 1769. This is the total marital fertility rate taken from Table II (page 40) in M. Anderson (Ed.) (1996) \u2013 Population Change in North-Western Europe, 1750\u20131850. </p>\n\n\n\n<p>For France I\u2019m not aware of a mortality rate estimate for this particular period. I am therefore relying on an average between an earlier and a later estimate. Both are reported in Volk and Atkinson. For the period 1600-1700 the authors report an estimate of 40-50% and for 1816-50 a mortality rate of 44%.{/ref}</p>\n\n\n\n<p>This has changed dramatically over the last century. Child mortality and fertility rates have both fallen. </p>\n\n\n\n<p>As the data in the chart shows, for Sweden the average has gone down to 0.006 child deaths per woman. What was once very common, became rare. </p>\n\n\n\n<p>In this visualization you can change the country for which this data is shown and explore the trends in countries around the world. To compare the number of children lost per woman for several countries \u2013 and see the data on a world map \u2013 you can use<a href=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/children-died-before-five-per-woman?tab=map&year=2015&time=1800..2015\"> this visualization</a>. In most world regions it has become rare for parents to lose a child, but this is unfortunately not true everywhere.</p>\n</div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\">\n<iframe style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\" src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/Children-woman-death-vs-survival\"></iframe>\n</div>\n</div>\n\n\n\n<h4>Conclusion</h4>\n\n\n\n<p>The life stories of the Evelyn\u2019s and of Elizabeth Duncombe and William Brownlow are heartbreaking, but they were unfortunately not unusual. Almost all parents saw one or several of their children die.</p>\n\n\n\n<p>When I write about the history of child mortality some commentators speculate that the loss of a child might have not been painful in times and places where it\u2019s common. This is not reflected in the diary entries of these parents. Seeing one\u2019s child die has always been terrible for parents, also during the long period of humanity\u2019s history when the death of a child <a href=\"https://ourworldindata.org/child-mortality-in-the-past\">was very common</a>.</p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator\"/>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p>Grief fills the room up of my absent child<br>Lies in his bed, walks up and down with me,<br>Puts on his pretty looks, repeats his words,<br>Remembers me of all his gracious parts,<br>Stuffs out his vacant garments with his form.</p><p><span style=\"font-size: inherit;\">\u2013 Shakespeare [The words of King John after his son dies at the age of eleven]</span></p></blockquote>\n",
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"rendered": "The death of a young child has always been the most devastating tragedy mothers and fathers could experience. How common was it?",
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"date_gmt": "2019-09-12T10:00:17",
"modified": "2022-05-18T09:53:42",
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"Max Roser"
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