variables: 959838
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| id | name | unit | description | createdAt | updatedAt | code | coverage | timespan | datasetId | sourceId | shortUnit | display | columnOrder | originalMetadata | grapherConfigAdmin | shortName | catalogPath | dimensions | schemaVersion | processingLevel | processingLog | titlePublic | titleVariant | attributionShort | attribution | descriptionShort | descriptionFromProducer | descriptionKey | descriptionProcessing | licenses | license | grapherConfigETL | type | sort | dataChecksum | metadataChecksum |
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| 959838 | Primary energy consumption | coal-ton equivalent | 2024-07-30 12:02:09 | 2024-07-30 12:02:10 | 1816-2016 | 6645 | {
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0 | pec | grapher/cow/2024-07-26/national_material_capabilities/national_material_capabilities#pec | 2 | minor | Primary energy consumption | Measures one element of the industrial capacity of states in the international system. Simply put, the greater the energy consumption, the larger the potential manufacturing base of an economy, the larger the potential economy of the state in question, and the more wealth and potential influence that state could or should have. | Primary Energy Consumption is a state’s consumption of energy (metric ton coal equivalent) in each year for the period 1816-2016. _Data Acquisition and Generation_ Primary Energy Consumption measures one element of the industrial capacity of states in the international system. Simply put, the greater the energy consumption, the larger the potential manufacturing base of an economy, the larger the potential economy of the state in question, and the more wealth and potential influence that state could or should have. PEC is a derived indicator, computed using Equation One below: Equation ENER 1: Primary Energy Consumption Formula Consumption = Production + Imports – Exports – Δ in Domestic Stocks This formula is quite similar to the one utilized in the original coding manual, except for one change—the inclusion of domestic stocks into the equation (Singer et al, p. 21). This reflects that states will maintain supplies of energy-producing commodities in the event that there are disruptions of import or export flows. Primary Energy Consumption comes from (and is computed using data about) four broad categories of sources—coal, petroleum, electricity, and natural gas. Each of these elements is broken into a variety of different elements. It is important to note that these forms of energy are all types of commercial energy. Many other forms (such as animal waste, peat, and wood- burning) exist, however these other energy sources are of such small amounts that they do not qualify as industrial energy sources. The raw data for each commodity is converted into a common unit (in this case, one thousand metric ton coal equivalents) and then summed to produce the energy consumption for a given state in a particular year. The data series runs from 1816 (when the Correlates of War project begins to track the international system) until 1998 (the last year the United Nations publishes comparable, cross- national data on energy consumption). Data on these commodities comes primarily from two sources. For the pre-1970 portion of the data, much of the data necessary to compute PEC comes from the Mitchell International Historical Statistics series. After 1970, the data come from the Energy Statistics Yearbook published by the United Nations. This is a change from previous data sets. Older versions of the data set obtained much of the PEC data during the pre-1970 period through state-specific sources, and not a single, common source. This made tracing the source of many of the original data points impossible. In this version, however, there are far more points that come from only a few sources instead of an amalgamation. United Nations Data. This data source was utilized for all states whenever possible. Overall, the UN began collecting PEC data for some states (particularly the United States, Western Europe, Soviet Union, China, Japan, and Australia) starting in 1950. Comprehensive data on all the states in the international system only began between 1968 and 19707. The United Nations data arrives already converted into one thousand metric coal-ton equivalents. However, Mitchell data were disaggregated into four major commodities (coal, petroleum, electricity, and natural gas); UN data is aggregated into four major categories: production, imports, exports, and changes in domestic stocks (in accordance with Equation One above). This required a different combination scheme. Simply put, Equation One was applied to the UN data to calculate PEC. However, there were a number of blank cells contained within the data that had to be addressed in order to make the calculations. The assumption that was used for the UN data only was that if the data were missing, the value was zero. Using this technique, there were no negative data values produced. As is also apparent, there are no data cells where all the information is missing; there are some values that can be calculated for each state in the international system. Mitchell Data. Primary Energy Consumption computed using Mitchell data is comprised of four energy-producing commodities: 1) Coal; 2) Petroleum; 3) Electricity; and 4) Natural Gas. This section will discuss each of these commodities, looking at a brief history, conversion formulas, and potential problems found within each commodity. Coal. Of all the industrial indicators, coal is the only indicator that covers the entire time span from 1816 to the present. Coal is the primary energy consumption element for all states prior to World War One. It is also the metric standard by which all this energy consumption data is measured. In this data collection effort, three types of coal were identified: Anthracite, Bituminous, and Brown. Anthracite and Bituminous are very similar; they are the hard, black coal found in most mines throughout the world8. These two types of coal are the standard by which all other energy consumption elements are measured. Brown coal, on the other hand, is softer, quicker burning, and less efficient as an industrial fuel. There are a variety of different types of brown coals (a type called lignite is mentioned most often), and their quality is often dependent on where a state is located in the world. In order to account for these differences, this data set utilized a state-by-state brown coal conversion table. Some similar conversion values appeared in previous versions of the coder’s manual (Singer et al, Table Three, p. 28). There are some differences between that table and the one presented by Darmstadter. We choose to utilize the table as presented by Darmstadter. One potential problem arose in these brown coal conversions. There were three cases where there was no brown coal conversion presented for a given state, even though the Mitchell data documented that the state in question produced brown coal. These states are Hungary (HUN, 310), Iran (IRN, 630), and Mongolia (MON, 712). For these three states, this computation utilized the conversion factor for a state on the list that is geographically proximate to the state in question. These proximate states were Austria (AUS, 305), Turkey (TUR, 640), and North Korea (PRK, 731), respectively. Petroleum. Petroleum is the second most prevalent source of industrial energy consumption. Relatively speaking, petroleum products were a minor source of commercial energy until the advent of the automobile after the turn of the century. Since then, however, petroleum has become a highly important industrial energy source. In generating usable data from the raw petroleum figures presented, it is often necessary to perform two types of conversions. First, it is necessary to convert the raw data into metric tons. Second, it is then necessary to convert data from the metric ton of petroleum into metric tons of coal equivalency. I will look at each of these in turn. There were two alternate measures used throughout the Mitchell Data. They were “One Million US Gallons” and “One Thousand Barrels.” The conversions from their respective units into metric ton equivalencies for each of these measures are listed in Equations ENER 4 and ENER 5 below: Equation ENER 4: Millions of US Gallons to Thousands of Metric Tons of Oil ____M US Gallons * 3.2468 = ____K Metric Tons of Oil Equation ENER 5: Thousands of Barrels to Thousands of Metric Tons of Oil ____K Barrels * 0.1366 = ____K Metric Tons of Oil In converting petroleum into coal-ton equivalents, Mitchell distinguished between two major forms of petroleum: 1) Crude, and 2) Refined. The conversions for each of these two types of oil are listed below: Equation ENER 6: Crude Petroleum to Coal Ton Equivalents ____K Metric Tons Crude Petroleum * 1.429 = ____K Coal Ton Equivalent Equation ENER 7: Refined Petroleum to Coal Ton Equivalents ____K Metric Tons Refined Petroleum * 1.474 = ____K Coal-Ton Equivalent One of the difficulties of converting petroleum products into coal equivalents is that petroleum products come in a variety of different weights and types, each of which has its own conversion value. Unfortunately, Mitchell does not distinguish between the many different weights and types of petroleum products—this source only utilizes the crude and refined categories listed above. In order to overcome this problem, it was necessary to make some assumptions about the conversion formulas utilized here. For crude oil, the conversion factor utilized here is the conversion for crude oil of average viscosity15. For refined products, the conversion stems from two considerations. First, this value is the conversion for kerosene, the major refined petroleum product prior to World War One. Second, it is also the approximate mean value for all refined petroleum products that have been produced following World War One. For instance, gasoline and liquefied petroleum gases both have higher conversion factors to coal-ton equivalents than kerosene (1.500 and 1.554, respectively, as compared to 1.474 for kerosene; taken from Energy Statistics Yearbook, p. xlv). However, gas-diesel oils and residual fuel oil have lower conversion formulas than kerosene (1.450 and 1.416, respectively; taken from Energy Statistics Yearbook, p. xlv). Because some types of refined petroleum products have greater conversion factors and others have smaller conversion factors, this conversion value appears to be a good approximation for all types of refined petroleum products. It is vital to note, however, that in the UN data this assumption is unnecessary. The United Nations collects data on each individual commodity, in its original form, and makes its calculations based on the values of these individual characteristics instead of on an assumption about homogeneity. Therefore, these assumed values above are only concerned with the Mitchell Data calculated before 1970. Electricity. After 1900, electrical production enters the world energy picture. It is important to note, however, that the electrical production values listed here DO NOT include electricity produced from fossil fuels; these types of energy production are included in the coal, oil, and natural gas components of the data. Electrical production here includes three types of electrical production: 1) Hydroelectric, 2) Nuclear, and 3) Geothermal. Conversion from electrical energy production into coal-ton equivalents utilizes the following formula: Equation ENER 8: Electrical Energy Conversion ____ Giggawatts * 0.123 = ____ K Coal-Ton Equivalents Mitchell’s aggregation of raw data again makes assuming necessary, which is central to this conversion factor. Mitchell does not distinguish between hydroelectric, nuclear, or geothermal energy. He aggregates these three vastly different categories into one category. Therefore, it was again necessary to assume about the type of energy that was produced prior to 1970. The assumption utilized here (and in the conversion above) is that all electricity before 1970 is hydroelectric power. Prior to 1970, this assumption is quite tenable—before World War Two, nuclear and geothermic electricity did not exist. After World War Two, the nuclear reactor was only becoming commercially available and viable in the early 1960s16, and only by 1970 were there enough nuclear plants to make any measurable contribution to energy production. Only after the oil shocks of the 1970s (when this data set utilizes UN data that separates conversion rates for each type of electricity) did research and utilization of these alternate forms of electrical generation step into high gear. The potential biasing impact of this assumption is diminished again because of the prevalence of UN data. The UN again distinguishes between all three of the aforementioned electricity types, converting each according to its own conversion factor. Therefore, in states where nuclear power is prevalent, such as the United States, Western Europe, Soviet Union, China, and Japan, their data come from the UN beginning in 1950, making this assumption not apply to these states in question. One difference between the version presented here and version 2.1 is a change in the conversion rates utilized. Version 2.1 utilized a conversion rate that evolved from 1.0 in 1919 to 0.3 in 1971 (Singer et al, 1990, p. 28; originally published in Darmstadter 1971, p. 83017). The original researchers believed that there was an evolution of electric-producing technology, making more efficient electrical production possible over time, necessitating a moving scale. The UN, however, rejects this conversion and utilizes fixed conversion factors. Because the UN data is utilized for computing far more data points than anything in the Darmstadter era, version three utilizes UN data conversion techniques, which for electrical consumption utilizes a constant conversion rate. Natural Gas. Natural gas production was the last of the four energy commodities to appear on the industrial scene. Present for as long as there were petroleum production facilities, natural gas was often burned off at the site, instead of being used for more commercial purposes. Only in the last fifty years has the condensation, refrigeration, and storage technology been available to harness this source of energy for commercial purposes. The conversion formulas for computing natural gas production into coal ton equivalents appear as Formulas ENER 9 and ENER 10 below. Formula ENER 9: Cubic Meters of Natural Gas to Coal Ton Equivalents ____M Cubic Meters Natural Gas * 1.33 = ____K Coal-Ton Equivalents Formula ENER 10: Petajoules of Natural Gas to Coal Ton Equivalents ____Petajoules * 34.121 = ____K Coal-Ton Equivalents For most of the data points, the “million cubic meters” is the standard unit for natural gas production. The Petajoule became the basic unit of natural gas production in 1966, necessitating a different conversion formula. | [] |
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